drbubb Posted March 22, 2009 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2009 "The presence of these unpredictable natural phenomena, single-handedly rubbishes the workability of Elliot Wave theory. The poor record of Elliot Wave predictions does further damage. Respected randomness practitioners, mathematicians and Harvard professors alike have proven that it has no value." (Flashman) ===== Quote: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/...ounce-22461.php Flashie is an idiot. I think he must good at "throwing away babies with bathwater"! EWI's record is "mixed", but it sometimes makes incredible calls. To me, it has value, and I pay attention to their forecasts - and Neely has made better calls that EWI's Prechter. One of GEI's posters, is off on a one year Round-the-World trip, courtesy of his trading profits in 2008, using EWI's trading signals. Neely's method is more complex, and I am still learning about it. I plan to buy his book and study it over time. (Maybe I can even try to get him to join a future GEI conference call someday.) An even more powerful combination might be to use Elliottwave in conjuction with Volume-driven signals, and astrology, as "pattern recognition expert" Larry Pesavento seems to be doing. I have been making a decent living using various technical trading methods alongside my own brand of fundamental analysis. I could tell you about the details of what I have done, but it might sound too much like bragging. And I would have to leave off a rather bad year in 2008, when I failed to act on some signals that I was getting, and stayed with a large Junior portfolio, and wound up riding it down through a very nasty correction in Junior mining stocks. A nice overall gain, but with a confidence-hurting "major drawdown" in 2008. As I see it: After 5-6 years of big annual profits, the Loss I made in 2008 are more of a comment on my own lack of trading discipline, than they are of failures in Elliott wave analysis or my other technical trading techniques. I do hope to show people that these tools can help produce outsized returns on a consistent basis. How are the following real-life statistics as a demonstration of what can be done: My "DB Portfolio" was started on the day of my Call of "the Bottom" on a GE Conference call that you can go back and listen to. It has showed: Some decent outperfomance of the rising SPX index. My 34.2% beats the index by 21.6% ! The current high cash levels (55%) I'm holding may help, if we see a brief pullback now, as I expect. HISTORICAL TRACK RECORD =================== Date==== Portfolio Value / Cash held & (Pct.) / + Change / SPX cls. / + chg. / Outpf ======= : ========= : ============== : ====== : ===== : ===== : ===== 05.Mar.09 : ..$ 237,301 .. : ..$ 000,000 (00.0%) + 00.0 % : 682.55 : 13.Mar.09 : ..$ 295,179 .. : ..$ 011,464 (03.9%) + 24.4 % : 756.55 : + 10.8 % : + 13.6 % 17.Mar.09 : ..$ 307,459 .. : ..$ 049,314 (16.0%) + 29.6 % : 778.12 : + 14.0 % : + 15.6 % 20.Mar.09 : ..$ 318,434 .. : ..$ 177,329 (55.7%) + 34.2 % : 768.54 : + 12.6 % : + 21.6 % Updated details, see thread in : GEI Member's section Brief. But if I can keep returns like that going, surely it demonstrates something good! (note: the above was posted on GEI's Neowave Warnings thread ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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