G0ldfinger

I think house prices might continue to fall nominally for a while. I also think real interest rates might go more negative. Because they're throwing not only the sink at it but also the rest of the kitchen, it is a very slow process. The same applies to the onset of hyper-inflation. A mistake almost all of the good forecasters have made (e.g. Jim Sinclair) is that they have overestimated the speed of the process. I made this mistake too, by the way. The delusion out there is huge, i.e. it perishes very slowly (but perish it does indeed!) and all moral principles have been thrown overboard (this will continue) to cover up (i.e. paper over) the gravity of the situation. At the moment, inflation in necessities is very high while there is some price deflation in disgressionary goods like (owned) property, luxury items (second homes, yachts, iPoops). This has been predicted by a lot of people (including me) and should be seen as the rosiest time of this unfolding inflationary catastrophe. I fear and predict that it won't last though. Forward looking assets like gold and silver, however, and keep in mind that these are bought by generally better informed people, are discounting for much higher future rates of inflation. They will continue to function as an insurance and will protect capital. It has been discussed many times before on here that (and why) houses will suck big time as a hedge against hyper-inflation. However, if most of your assets are in highly liquid high quality assets (i.e. precious metals), it might turn out as a brilliant investment to buy a house on a fixed(!!) interest mortgage in the early stages of the truly hyper part of the inflation catastrophe that we are in.

I am very intrigued by gold miners/explorers that are still plumbing (nominal!) 2008 depths, such as Axmin Inc. and Endeavour Mining, to mention two that John Embry had looked at 2-3 years ago. Do we have a thread that actually discusses why some of these companies are still dirt cheap while others have recovered? I am usually less into the stocks, so I am possibly not quite aware of corresponding discussions on here. Related to this, I will put some money into larger producers sometime soon. Does anyone see a good reason why I should not buy Goldcorp or Yamana? Note that I am talking of larger companies here, so I know there is also less upside potential when compared with juniors.

No. IMO it is best to hold actual bullion, or buy through GoldMoney or BullionVault.

Commerzbank is one of the biggest German banking turds. Don't touch them. Just like Societe Cr@piale, Commerzcr@p will sell you long dated out of the money calls on silver and similar. Death wish! By coincidence, I have some silver calls with them (I had a little money left in my brokerage account, so I just moved it in there). Guess who has lost money on these calls already?

TEMPORARY, please. Thank you!

OK, I'll stop this now. Watch this -- it usually works: See you up theheeeree!!

In 2004 I worked in the UK and everyone was asking me "do you buy, when will you buy"? I did some research, and came to the conclusion that this was an absolutely absurd thought, so my answer was "heck no!" A gold bullion investment is momentarily buying five times(!) more house than back in 2004.

As in 1974, we might see a larger correction at some stage, e.g. dropping from $8,000 down all the way to $4,000 an ounce, only to go all the way to $30,000 in the years after (numbers in case the US stops taking on new debt NOW).

Very good point. However, Pd has been plumbing even lower depths recently. http://www.markt-daten.de/charts/rohstoffe/images/au-pt-ratio.gif http://www.markt-daten.de/charts/rohstoffe/images/gold-platin-ratio.gif http://www.markt-daten.de/charts/rohstoffe/images/pt-pd-ratio.gif http://www.markt-daten.de/charts/rohstoffe/images/platin-palladium-ratio.gif

Just so people understand: The chart on the gold-debt relationship three posts earlier means that gold would have to trade at $31,183 an ounce today to make it as expensive (in terms of external U.S. debt) as back at the peak in January 1980. This is the Sinclair model, but without his new Chinese boogie-woogie adjustment.

Gold: really cheap. http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/Gold_Price_to_MZM_Equilibrium_Price.html http://gold.approximity.com/since1970/Gold_Price_to_External_Debt_Equilibrium_Price.html

That was the old forecast, with updated data. http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

Sorry Pixel, gold has now left your chart. http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

Update. The DJIA has spectacularly failed at the psychologically important level of 10 ounces and is now going the way of the doodoo dodo. http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

Update. http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html

Long term and on average, just like a piece of farm land should be a good inflation hedge long term. Medium term, you have to be in the right thing to ride the cycles in the right direction. At the moment, the cycle for gold is up. It might stay up for another 5 to 10 years, who knows. We simply have to watch the indicators.

Up 30 bucks. Maybe the banksters have finally run out of paper gold? Hard to believe!

I can't at all confirm this, because I haven't tried to buy any recently, but a relative told me the same about German dealers today. EDIT: But when I look at dealers' front pages, everything seems normal.

Bruhahah. Will it be $500 up (desperate Asians), or $50 down (desperate/ridiculous CBs/shorts)? Now I'll have to stay awake. But with Tim Butcher's "Blood River" as a read and my own fond memories of a trip into the heart of darkness, it'll be no long wait. Oh, and I need to watch that Sinclair video of course. Got to get my tea too.

$1,650! Congratulations to Mr. Gold: Jim Sinclair! ... for the investment call of the century! No manic-depressive trading is needed, no fearful paper shuffling with liabilities not worth the paper they have been written on. Good old gold has done what it has done for thousands of years, and will continue to do. Don't sell your gold now, don't be stupid. The Sinclair gold price model hints at a price of $16,000 an ounce today if gold was to go back to ratios it has gone to before in the 1970s and 1980s. Don't listen to the "gold pays no dividend" morons, they don't understand what they are dealing with.

Daily price records in gold are now the new norm. Investors will get used to it, taking this gold bull to the public. A U.S. default might help it too. Oops, post 27,000 has been reached.

Please tell the decision makers on HPC greetings from their former poster "Goldfinger" (+5,000 posts or so), and please tell them that they are f**king morons. They could have had this 4 years ago. But no, they banned everything related to gold, and in due course lost out on a 200% profit. F**king morons. But I guess the longer this bull market goes, the more of that kind will come to surface.

Going... down. http://gold.approximity.com/since1930/UK_House_Prices_in_Gold_LOG_GUESS.png

Gold has just put in a new all-time high at $1575.20.

The worst amateurs are those who don't understand the monetary role gold plays in a collapsing fiat system (EUR, USD, GBP). The funny thing is, that it has happened over and over before and it is always the same outcome.