romans holiday

Kudos to you Roman, your timing there was very good. That'll look very impressive if silver gets back up to (and perhaps beyond) it's high.

Cheers. May take a year or so to break the high. If silver suddenly spiked to 50 sometime within the next few months I'd consider selling. Otherwise, will hold on for a couple of years for the spike to 100.... should we get it.

Oh I fully intend to leverage the hell out of this purchase - but it's a big farm, and I can only borrow so much!

Taking on debt may not be such a good idea if farm prices deflate, markets dry up, and money becomes more scarce.

The Dangers Of Leveraged ETFs

 

For every dip, you need a greater rise to break even. The disparity is amplified by leveraging. If you work out the math, for 3X leverage, the rise has to be just greater than d/(1-3*d). So for a 10% dip in the non-leveraged ETF, it needs to recover by 14.28% in order for the leveraged ETF to break even!

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/309261-the-dangers-of-leveraged-etfs

 

Leveraged Silver ETF Plunges Nearly 40% from Peak

 

http://www.etftrends.com/2011/05/leveraged-silver-etf-plunges-nearly-40-from-peak/

So far, so good.

What d'ya know... gold back through 1650. 4th time lucky.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1325871758.php

A number of people have approached me recently and said they wished they had listened five years ago. They feel they have missed the boat, that it’s too late to buy gold. For those who feel that way, let me close with a Chinese proverb I discovered last year:

 

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago.

 

The second best time is today.

 

 

Around 20% "return" a year. That would put the price around $1250 at January next year..... and $1500 at January 2012,....and $1800 at Jan 2013................... $2150 at Jan 2014.

Interesting to look at previous posts from years back. This from mid-2010. Think it fair to say the trend in gold was nailed.

One of my Goals in life is to own a small holding. Long way from being able to do that at the moment.

 

I do have a few chickens in the garden and i also grow some of my own veg. Im not really after the good life just a better way of life.

Don't have chickens yet, but have a goat and a good sized vege garden. The Good Life, and not referring to the Barbara Kendall type, has to be a healthy mix of nature and culture, with "society" put firmly on the bottom rung. Hence I'll be "commuting" by camper between the small holding and the large city... week on week off sort of thing. A bit of tutoring, a lot of reading, a bit of writing then back to the peaceful countryside for a bit. With the camper, you can park up at specially disignated areas for a few days within walking distance of the mainstreet. Then again, I doubt it will be too difficult to park on an acquaintance's inner suburb lawn if I were to contribute a little to the power bill.

Looking v good today considering the strength of the USD.

Bodes well for the short term.

Yes, think all the correction could be in. There have been times when the precious metals have not moved inversely to the dollar. Could well see both metals and dollar moving up in tandem for a bit now.

You are being disingenouos Dr Bubb. How much of your life do you devote to working on non-B&H investing strategies Dr Bubb? Answer: serious amounts. Versus how much time can someone with a f/t professional career devote? Answer: not even close to enough.

Or versus someone with a life of leisure to maintain? I mean, trading has its stresses, and is a form of work as is motivated by making money. I reckon the eventual goal is to be able to say enough, transcend the money sphere altogether, and devote the rest of your life to a more worthy end. I mean, time is the most valuable commodity we have right?

An excellent trade, congratulations.

Thanx. Silver up to 29.60. Would like to see it around the mid 30s before breathing a little easier. Probably then a sloooow climb towards 50 over the next year or so... then hopefully another explosive move to 100. My target for selling.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1325523600.php

Since this chart was published, according to Richard Russell via a blog post on King World News (I don't subscribe to Market Vane, so I'll take Sir Richard and King World News at their word), the number has dropped further down to 56%. As the chart above shows, major bottoms in Gold have been formed in the 50s range on this sentiment indicator. We are there.

Yeah, and that might offer a decent basis for some trading around a core position.

 

I also think you need to look at Gold in other currencies.

From my perspective, the dollar is the next best currency after gold. It makes more sense to trade the more volatile silver than gold, keeping gold as core.

It is better to trade silver against the dollar, as when the risk off trade is on the other currencies tend to weaken with silver [Yen might be the exception to this]. Silver/ Dollar is a good contrary trading pair.

I dont see explanations, only excuses for Gold's poor performance.

I've been predicting, on this thread, the actual performance of gold for a few years now: 20% odd annual appreciation against the dollar. All to the chagrin of a certain sector of the gold community. When gold went through 1650, I predicted it would waver through that mark a few times for quite a few months. When gold spiked to 1900, I predicted it would come back and consolidate to the trend. Predictions have been well corroborated. The explanation, or theory for it [for those into theory], was gold would be monetized in a deflationary environment.

Note: a theory does not have to be strictly speaking true [how can it]. It just has to work. Mine has worked.

I have put up with ENORMOUS resistance here and elsewhere in trying to get a more open minded message out. I should have thought that at least a few people would have now seen some value in examining other ideas rather than following the lemmings repeating mindless mantras about $2500 Gold coming within weeks or months.

Agree with "the weeks". Disagree with "the months". Gold looks now, around 1550, to have consolidated to the long term trend [20% odd annual appreciation]. 2012 would put the trend at 1900, with 2013 at 2300. So, by the charts, gold could easily spike through 2500 in another 12 months or so.

I am slightly disappointed that so few here have been plugged into this story as it has rolled out. Too many here just repeat the nonsense that comes from the Gold-ramping sites, and have had trouble seeing the bigger picture.

Why not start a new thread on it?

Have those constantly spewing out targets like $2500 Gold or $100 Silver really served anyone, apart from their own interests?

Well, it depends what time-frame is being used. A certain sector of the gold cumminty has proven themselves to be a little impatient and premature with these targets. But then others with a longer time frame in mind are still on target with gold appreciating 20% odd annually.

 

This next chart is from www.sentimentrader.com

 

 

According to this chart (updated yesterday) sentiment hasn't been lower in the last 5 years however as the reading is a % it's worth noting the scale is only currently showing 30% - 90%.

I like that sentiment indicator. Corroborates with my own indicators for buying: time; a similiar period of time has elapsed since the other correction, and price; silver is now near half the price of the spike, once again reflecting the last correction.

Is then the bottom in?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/28/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE7AK1M520111228

......

Although gold traditionally has a safe-haven appeal, the euro zone debt crisis is threatening the global economy, causing a liquidity shortage in markets and forcing investors to abandon their gold positions to cover losses elsewhere.

 

Among platinum group metals, platinum fell 3.2 percent to $1,381.74 an ounce, while palladium dropped 2.9 percent to $639.47 an ounce.

Could be some astute timing there, I think with those levered ETFs it really needs to be.

 

Are there not issues with holding 2X levered ETFs like this over time? (in terms of rebalancing required, lag, futures rollover etc)

 

Found this, you may want to check it out (if you are not already aware of these issues)

 

The Case Against Leveraged ETFs

I wouldn't do it with anything but silver. Time will tell.

Why?

It is simply 2x SLV

Yes, it was more a correction of another misleading chart that had been posted earlier.

I think Silver is becoming Gold's ugly sister.

Before the decade is out, they'll be calling gold the King of cash..... and silver, the volatile Queen.

I edited my previous post (and deleted the chart) replacing it with something that explains it better.

 

AGQ in black against SLV in blue from August 2010 onwards;

Awesome! Just waiting for silver to turn around and head in the other direction now.

I wonder how much of the current selloff is people scared by MF Global and dumping their paper now ?

Yep, problem is all that hot speculative money that jumps in and out of the funds so easily. The writing was on the wall when gold spiked to 1900. I much prefer to see the steadier rise of 20% odd a year. With speculative money jumping out, the gold price could easily dip briefly below the long term trend.

Could be some astute timing there, I think with those levered ETFs it really needs to be.

 

This SLV (in blue) relative to (AGQ/SLV)

 

Just to show how AGQ drifts in terms of tracking the underlying 2 to 1.

 

Hey PD, I don't get your chart. I'm trading AGQ against dollars.

Is it possible to post another chart which overlays SLV against AGQ?

Starting to look a little similiar to the deleveraging of 2008. If it repeated the pattern, gold would dip down again in the early part of the year before bouncing back and going onto new highs. Still would make sense to buy during this present dip if gold was unowned.

I am more on James Turk side, seeing no problem with silver hitting $70 in 2012. Of course it need not do so, but certainly we also haven't seen anything yet.

 

Silver is similar to gold as far as more and more of it ends up in strong hands given the weak hands panic everytime the price dips.

If it's at all similiar to the previous pattern, it may take a few years to see silver through 100...... before perhaps retracing to 50. One volatile Queen.