romans holiday
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Posts posted by romans holiday
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Yes previous support seems to have now become resistance following the fall to US$1530 and rally from. Deleveraging and margin hikes seem to have played their part. I now expect gold to trades sideways to slightly down this period of deleveraging with important support at 200MA.
Silver back below 30. Just want to see one more good push lower!!
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Has anyone else noted that the resistance area for Gold is now around $1650-1670.
That's very near to Jim Sinclair's big $1650 level. Perhaps he could see the future afterall.
As in "back to the future" kind of thing?
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I might be reading it wrong, but to me, it looks to be right up there alongside your (non-science or philosophical) line of thinking.
Were you meaning to say "pseudo-science" line of thinking?
As to philosophy, it's always going to supercede science. This is why they study philosophy of science in universities [not to mention the best scientific brains], and not science of philosophy. Philosophy interrogates science: what exactly are its methods.... what do its theories mean... do they describe reality or are they more instruments/ models...is it about truth, or power... or art?
Good philosophy rather than being "anti-science", looks to contextualize it, or qualify it.... science is after all our science... it's always a human science.
The trouble today is that science has tended to take on the inflated proportions of a cult, where it monopolizes knowledge, where valid knowledge is not seen to exist outside of science. This is also a kind of close-mindedness where reality is thought to be understood only in technical or theoretical terms.
The relation between philosophy and science is an important one. Even though philosophy questions the more dogmatic assumptions of a popularized science, it can also in turn provide a firm basis for science. Rational criticism need not entail that science is seen solely in terms of power [whether over our environment or ourselves]. Rather, criticism subverts the potential for that. The issue here is one of freedom, and primarily freedom of the imagination..... and it is a species of this, the scientific imagination, which is able to construct scientific models which provide a handle on the world. These models "work", with the power of technology, insofar as they analogically correlate with a material reality.
It really comes down to what open-mindedness practically means.
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I was trying to attack the argument itself, it's unfortunate that didn't carry across in my skit. My take is that one of you focuses on hedging and swing trading via options whereas the other believes that PMs are the ultimate hedge against systemic/inflationary risks and should not be traded (apart from swaps between gold and silver). My belief is that the argument is being presented in too black and white a manner and I thought it was perceptive to point this out, clearly you disagree with the message. My belief is that it is wise to hold both cash and precious metals to hedge against dual outcomes. Interestingly I have adopted a balanced approach, typically holding dollars and metal, and aside from Roman's Holiday, that is rarely presented here.
The continued polarization on gold amazes me. On the one side you have the "gold is the only true/ natural money" crowd, and on the other "gold is only a commodity". The one thing they hold in common is that gold's an inflation hedge.... it is unthinkable for the first crowd that [hyper] inflation will not play out, and though the second crowd thinks deflation is possible, or probable, they tend to then assume that the price of gold must go down in this scenario.
The pramatic and balanced approach is to think of gold just as a currency.... the rise in price simply reflects the appreciation of a currency [a process of monetization by the market]. Even if at times gold and the dollar will move contrary to each other... in the aggregate they may both appreciate as the most desired forms of liquidity. Exter's liquidity pyramid portrays the dynamic well, where the dollar will appreciate against assets [and other fiat currencies] even as gold continues to appreciate against the dollar. More than mutual hedges, the dollar and gold could even be considered complemetary "investments" [or disinvestments]. It's all about liquidity now.
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RSI doesn't look over-sold yet.
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Nothing like the long term log charts to put things in perspective.
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Log chart shows a good chance of silver falling further.... perhaps only half the ways so far.
If the previous crash is anything to go by, it may take a few more months for silver to bottom. Target to buy 25.... target to sell 100.
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Which is what I did... But what if I was wrong and the prices went straight the other way (ie. rocket up)? Then I guess the buy&hedgers would still win... And keep their core position. (Or am I missing something there?)
The asssumption that the US dollar was simply going to roll over has put a lot of balance. Factis, the dollar will remain strong at times creating huge volatility and corrections. Of course, this was all predictable, and precious metals remain in a bull market.... just a volatile one.
The way I hedged was to pile into gold [and silver] bullion assets early on, and then hedge with dollars. The dollar hedge can be increased by trading the volatility of silver. Ideally, if you get one trade right, the gains in your dollar hedge may even match the gains in bullion.
A lot have been confused by thinking of the dollar and gold as utterly contrary [each the anti-thesis of the other]. Though at times they will move contrarily, they are actually the two most desired forms of liquidity and accordingly are complementary "investments".
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Just wondering if we were close to the bottom in silver today? Peak to trough falls from March to October 2008 were about 55%. Peak to trough April to Sept 2011 have so far been 48% as the market factors in margin increases, and worries about hedge fund and bank busts and anticipates a bout of deflation. Perhaps Bubb and RH who have been anticipating falls to somewhere around 25 and 27 have called the bottom and the 300 Day Moving Average will mark the best buying opportunity?
If I was betting on one of the 5 outcomes in the Greek flow chart link it would be moral hazard as leaders often choose the short term path of least resistance. This is probably the most favourable outcome for the silver price in the next few weeks - otherwise the other options may imply further price weakness while fear rules the market. Paradoxically this fear may prove good news for the gold price.
Lev
Yep, the 20s looks like a good buy. Was it mentioned that silver dipped down to 26 already? It would be interesting to look at the 2008 chart of silver to see how long it took to bottom. I doubt there is any huge rush here.
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A country on a gold standard can still devalue by changing the ratio of banknotes to gold. The US did this in 1933 changing the ratio from $20 per ounce to $35 per ounce. There were some European countries that also devalued during the WW1/interwar period.
It is less easy under the gold standard, however, because it requires an explicit policy decision from the government, as opposed to allowing loose monetary policy to gradually depress the value of a fiat currency. That explicit policy decision may be difficult with respect to domestic and international politics.
Yep, when Roosevelt unilaterally messed around with the gold standard, the poor brits weer utterly shocked. They thought America would carry on where they couldn't any longer.... that is, maintain a relatively stable international monetary system. It could be argued, from a monetray perspective, that Roosevelt's "nationalist" policy contributed and emboldened nascent nationalist movements elsewhere... and helped lead to the breakdown of international order.
Of course, if only the US were now on gold, they would have the option of devaluing. As it is, if deflationary forces persist and become stronger. the US could be crucified on a strong dollar. Going back onto an international gold standard may end up being a way to devalue their dollar relative to other currencies, and stabilize trade.
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From DrB's Diary... Look what Neowave has come out with !
The REAL PROBLEM now is there are not enough shorts.
If there were more shorts, then we would see buying driven by short-covering.
The parabolic move up, chased them out, and brought in too many new bulls, who were way too complacent, and maybe still are.
From above:
Now I just got this email from Glenn Neely who has a good track record forecasting Gold prices:
NEOWAVE: Gold's Bull Market is Over
After a nearly $400 drop off this year's high, we can finally say Gold's 12-year bull market is over. For quite some time I've warned that America was on the verge of an entirely new type of economic environment - Deflation! Since our last bout of deflation was 80 years ago, this is a situation virtually no living American can remember. The impact on banks, home values, debts of all kinds and consumers, will be profound. This means that everything denominated in U.S. dollars will - over the next few years - begin to drop in value.
That will cause huge problems for all legal contracts based on payments in U.S. dollars, especially housing loans.
Are we headed down to $1200 or even $1000?
"Anything can happen," Gentles.
"Never ever ever sell your gold."
Indeed ! - what piss-poor advice that could seem in a few months.
This headline looks a bit silly. The big names get it spectacularly wrong all the time. to think of a couple; the "bond king" turns bearish on US bonds, Rick [from Rick's Picks] jumps from deflation to hyper-inflation.
What's needed is rational analysis as opposed to knee-jerk reactions. Gold being down $400 [after a super quick run-up] is not really that big a deal; in real terms the correction is simliar to 2008... and we all know how quickly gold bounced back.
I can't post my usual chart now.... but the long term log shows gold correcting to the long term trend line. Doesn't look like the end of a bull market to me.
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The Buy and Hedgers, are the big winners on a move like this.
Nice expression that.
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This may turn out to be great advice.
But sitting through the slide after the obvious parabolic move up in Gold was not so great an idea
Different courses for different horses Dr Bubb. No point bashing the buy and holders when they have done well to buy and hold over the past few years. Keep in mind also that many buy and holder types have their own forms of hedging. Spikes and consolidations were always a part of the game. If you can trade gold and make more of a profit, well done to you too.
Gold has predictably corrected to the long term trend after a spike up. If it trades sideways from here for a few months at around 1600-1650.... that still represents an annually compounding appreciation of around 20% odd.... which has also been predictable.
Why get so excited about spikes or corrections when it's the long term trend that's of importance to the [dis]invester?
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I think this may be the end of the cyclical bull market in silver. As a result of yesterday's drop my NAV dropped by 2.6%.
Previously in April, I bought puts on SLV, and sold half of my physical right at the top, I then cashed in the puts between $33.75 and $35, and bought back my physical position at $37. At the time people were rubbishing the idea of it being a top (apart from Bubb). My thinking was that the bull market would continue, but that the price would have to reach and exceed $50 for this to be confirmed to be the case in my mind. Selling after a drop is not typically what you do in markets, however, the meaning of yesterday's price action and the price action in the markets from a macro perspective could be very significant in my opinion.
After much vacillating, late yesterday I sold my entire physical silver position for US Dollars, I got out at $36.4. I am now entirely in cash.
Today I see silver down a further 10%, so at the moment it looks like the correct decision, but it's too early to say.
Only time will tell.
I've been looking for this kind of volatility in silver for a long time [ideal for trading but difficult to get on the right side of it]. Gold is correcting back to its long term trend line.... silver should continue to over-correct from here. I reckon both are still in a bull market. Buying in the upper 2os and sitting on for a couple of yaers looks good to me.Shame is I just spemt my US dollar hedge.... on land. The same day silver crashed, which i'd been waiting for for artound a year. Can you believe the timing??
Still have the silver bullion bars [there price is little changed in the kiwi dollar]. looks like any trading from now on will have to be restricted to the gold/ silver ratio.....now 55.
If I still had US dollars, I'd be buying the double leveraged silver ETF with silver at around 27...28.
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Wow !
Just wonder how low we can go.
Surely if we see a sustained period of deleveraging, margin calls being met etc , the downside is unlimited, especially due to the higher volatilty of silver anyway.
No doubt the die hard bulls will be saying - makes it a great buying opportunity, but I would say truth be told they would be very uncomfortable by the possibilities of where it could drop to.
Recently I saw figures stating that silver demand will be 70% industrial at some point not to far away, doesn't that also not bode well in a massively slowing global economy ?
http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9164&view=findpost&p=223293
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Also in GBP, we're only down £9/t.oz this week and it's a similar story in nearly everything else but USD. This is really about the dollar, not gold.
Yep, confirming that the dollar is the next best currency to gold.
Case in point. I had to cash in a brokerage account this morning in order to buy a property. Oh dear, gold has come off, but then I saw that the NZD had come off even more.... my purchasing currency. It was interesting to see how those gold certificates were now worth more in NZD than they were before this correction.
Bottom at 1650?
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Is very interesting, since many people in Alternative circles are talking about how an economic collapse, may precede a period of spiritual enlightment. It is fascinating how being wealthy increases you chances of being "caught up in Karma", and interested mainly in holding onto and increasing the wealth.
Not sure about collapse, but a good old-fashioned extended depression will do wonders for the moral character of the nations. Good bye to decadent consumerism and all that,.
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Experience, religion, intuition and tradition are merely amateur attempts at providing explanations/theories about the world.
Once you become a bit more intellectually rigorous and intellectually honest, you end up with the scientific method. This doesn't mean that scientists are saints. I know plenty, most of their work is a joke and nothing more than an exercise in staying employed and getting grant money. But they're not the real practitioners of science, just people that work in academia doing cargo-cult science. The public (and funding bodies) is too ignorant to tell the difference.
You may think that I'm dismissing experience, religion, intuition - and you're right.
At best, these nothing more than a stepping stone for exploring an interesting phenomenon in a more rigorous fashion with the best tool humans have - the scientific method.
"In my experience, the world appears flat. Therefore it is."
Surely not.
This thread is polarized. One is either all for science and only science.... or one is anti-science, and all for alternatives. I'd ask why it has to be either/ or.
Science is science, philosophy is philosophy, religion is religion, and whackoism is whackoism... everything is what it is, and not another thing.. Once the distinctions are drawn, and the particular approach of each defined, there is no problem.... or polarization. The problem seems to be arising from narrow-mindedness, where one sphere has to gobble up all the others.
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Gold Price May Rise to $2,500 by 2013, Newmont CEO O’Brien Says
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), the largest U.S. gold producer, said the price of the metal may gain by more than a third to $2,500 an ounce by 2013.“I don’t see the facts to cause the gold market to change in at least five years,” Chief Executive Officer Richard O’Brien said in Dalian, China today in an interview. Gold may stay high for the next five years, he said.
The gold price will rise to more than $2,000 an ounce in 2012, Brien said. Gold was $1,843.57 an ounce at 10:02 a.m. Hong Kong time.
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By the long term trend, a consolidation over the next few months to 1650 isn't out of the question:
Wouldn't take much to then see it spike to 2000 bit later.
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Simple counterpoint to the 'dark ages' argument:
We (the world's population) have the longest life expectancy in history, while at the same time having the largest population that is better fed than ever.
Smallpox and Rinderpest has been eradicated, Polio is pretty much gone. We are keeping people with HIV healthy and alive for decades. Cancer outcomes are better than ever....
We have developed a dirt-cheap global voice & data communication & navigation network (GSM, internet & GPS) in just a few decades.
We're on the verge of privatizing access to space, possibly another revolution on the scale of air-travel.
We are getting ever closer to good renewable energy sources and possibly even fusion.
Yes, the dark ages surely.
Oh, we think we're very clever monkeys. Too much of "we". What's the point in expanding the quantity of life - whether of populations or lifespans - if the quality of life becomes the casualty? And too many abstractions.... surely the crux of the matter is the existential meaning of one's own life [not to mention the meaning of science], and how to live it.
Zamyatin's novel "We" is a good read..... an early distopia [influenced Orwell]. And throw in a bit of Dosteovsky for good measure.... "Notes from the Underground" was my particular favorite.
Edit: just read Flap's post above; "3) Even if it is all completely true, I don't see how understanding it makes my life any better"
I think there is a way in which diverse reading, thinking, and interests do make us better. The danger is for populations to settle into a "normalized" science, where a certain orthodoxy [norm] sets in and people are "herded" into thinking of the universe, or cosmos, in a particular concrete way. Today's orthodoxy is that it works like some kind of machine.... however complex. The ramification of this for real lives is the loss of dignity and real personal freedom. In a machine-world, "freedom" becomes purely abstract.
Entertaining alternative theories, dogmas, whatever, is important because they help to 'unsettle" us and create an open "mind-scape". This is a liberating experience..... not in order to jump from one belief to another, but rather to cultivate an enlightened scepticism towards beliefs in general... beliefs that come to be seen as merely the products of our own machinations. All is art... there really is no science as such. That some find this difficult to acknowledge may be due to a trait of human nature [collective nature/ culture?]... and was analysed in Eric Fromm's "Fear of Freedom".
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That's why I use the word "harmony", that's different from just "rhyming" and repeating the views of the majority.
But "TRUTH" for a Moslem would be different that "truth" for a Christian, since they would start with different beliefs, and if they don't re-examine and widen their understanding, they would stay locked in different "realities". Hence we have strong disagreements, even wars.
Which is why I mentioned the connection between "universality" and "tolerance" before. A believer with a "universalist" frame of mind, whether Christian or Muslim, is likely to see themselves revering the same god. Though there are significant differences in their religion, they will no doubt focus on the points held in commmon... that they are both forms of monotheism for example, that they have much of the old testament in common etc.
I was listening to a program about the rise of anti-Muslim sentiment in the US since 9/11. Some on the "religious right" are identifying muslims with terrorists these days. Here's an example of a burgeoning intolerance... where religion [or a religion] is associated with terror [or fundamentalism]. Yet events have taken a turn to show how silly this all is; the recent event in Norway involved a terrorist who professed to be a Christian..... so apparently no one religion has a monopoly on terrorism. Of course, this can lead to another form of intolerance; that religion per se serves to inspire terrorism. But this idea is also easily refuted by 20th century history, where there are many secular forms of terror, and on an industrial scale.... so neither does religion per se have a monopoly on terror.
It's not religion, but fanaticism [whether couched in a religious or irreligious form] that leads to terrorism. Fanaticism arises when power and violence get the upper hand of reason and restraint. Universalism, enlightened scepticism, and tolerance are the forces that keeps a narrowed fanaticism at bay. In a sense, terror was written on the wall once the balance of power [between the great powers... the secular halfway house of Christendom]] was destroyed by two world wars and replaced with a balance of terror.
Bringing this back on point, some of the new truths expounded look too individualistic... they almost read as new forms of mysticism, which may be fine for the particular individual but do not contribute much in regard to reconstructing a humane "society". Reason needs to be rehabilitating to power, and the "individual" to the state, in order for that to occur. Maybe Aristotle isn"t so bad after all.
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Ah... if that, then:
Coherence to WHICH beliefs ?
I used to say: "TRUTH is a harmony of past belief."
If you accept that, then you had better realise that beliefs need to be constantly re-examined, and also have some means for discarding beliefs which have been disproven
Coherence is not adherence. The ideal of coherency is to take all spheres of life... whether religious, artistic, philosophical, scientific etc and weave them together into a harmonic whole. The "best" belief will be the most universal one.... and this should also [ideally] be the most tolerant [of others] given its universality.
Errant beliefs are discarded if they don't resonate [or triangulate] with the larger unified back drop of perceptions/ conceptions.
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[“The biggest disease in the normal construct is this low vibration. Pop stars and kings and queens and junk food and war and Facebook – it’s all limiting, drab, rubbish. If you come to a place of stillness, the unmoving mind, a place of balance, that neutral space – you see the world as mysterious and extravagant.
“’The construct’ tells us we know most of what there is to be known, but as you walk your own sovereign path as master and warrior, you realize that science and politics and education know next to nothing about how this world works and fits together.
There is nothing new under the sun. This is taking the enlightened scepticism of Socrates [his argument against the sophists] and giving it a modern spin. As the philosophic sage said "I know that I don't know".
What still plagues the west after millenia is the relation between faith/ belief and knowledge. The way out is to give up on the "God's eye view" of "pure" knowledge, and settle for a less serious 'knowledge"..... one that acknowledges a correlated faith/ belief at its core. Isn't that how knowledge was first defined.... as justified true belief [coherency]?
GOLD
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No, no, no.... its relative stability is more assuring - considering the problem is the uncertainty, and hence the volatility, of the monetary value of all else.
Gold is not a monetary freak of the market, but the strongest symbol of money.