romans holiday

Good questions!

I do hope the bulls who fell for his blatter will remember this,

and be more receptive to the many "voices of sanity", which were dismissed in the parabolic spiral.

 

Having said that that, I have bought fairly aggressively at these lower prices.

I note the lack of buying interest on the thread now, and regard that as a positive factor.

Wow, silver through the 27 barrier. My heavy buy order [AGQ at 40] was hit overnight. Will consider freeing up a little more bullion to buy a little more of this instrument in the next few weeks. 25 looks on the cards now, which is a 50% retracement, which would reflect the 2008 retracement from 20 to 10.

Didn't it recently correct to 26, very briefly?

 

I would relish the 20 figure...and wouldn't you relish the 17.90 or so figure?

 

No, I won't hold out for that figure from an old trade.

I doubt silver would go that low... mid 20s looks like a more reasonable buying target.

''Gold has plunged through many of the support levels Ive previously provided you"

LOL

Why listen to people, who are continually "surprised" by these predictable and tradable moves?

 

 

Note yesterday's Outperformance by SLW:

 

 

 

"It's a Dead Cat Bounce," says Tom Obrien, and "The S&P wants to tag SPX-1290."

"It is easy to move it during a week like this."

 

If it goes up on light volume, he thinks it will soon drop to retest the October lows.

He is also unimpressed by Gold's rally, and thinks it will drop $200 or more.

 

(Tuesday closes):

 

SPX: 1241.30 +35.95 / +2.98%

O: 1205.72 / H: 1242.82 / L: 1205.72

 

GLD: 156.98 + 2.11 / +1.36%

O: 156.82 / H: 157.43 / L: 156.58

vol.: 9.14 mn (ave: 14 mn)

 

SLV: 28.77 + 0.81 / +2.90%

O: 28.64 / H: 28.82 / L: 28.50

vol.: 11.52 mn (ave: 20 mn)

 

SLW: 29.80 +1.54 / +5.45% : Note Outperformance !

O: 28.87 / H: 29.83 / L: 28.75

vol: 4.37 mn (ave: 6 mn)

Tom O'Brien's may have dug himself into a biased bearish position. He called gold badly a while back, and has since then consistently wished for gold to come lower.

Will be interesting to see if these levels hold, when the tide of opinion is swinging towards lower levels

'Your worst enemy is yourself' (Chinese proverb)

Yes, always entertain the possibility of being completely deceived/ self-deluded... hence hedge.

A very scary chart - Silver at $20 by Jan 1st?

 

http://forum.treasurenet.com/index.php?topic=426212.0

In 2008, silver corrected from 20 to 10. Wouldn't the equivalent this time round be 25... down form 50?

The large dollar hedge about to come into play. Buy order in at AGQ 40. The previous upleg went from 10 to 50, so will look to sell at 100. Which would put AGQ at... something ridiculous.

You have made some good calls too.

But staying in Gold for the long term may or may not be the best move.

 

Here's a guy with a good track record who would doubt that, Mike Stathis:

 

The BEST use for gold is to capture price volatility via short-term trading.

Its poorest use is as a long-term hold.

 

Now that the gold bubble has (likely) been established, you need to be very careful about buying gold here, unless you plan to trade it. Otherwise, you face the risk of being stuck with it when the bubble pops. The previous down cycle in gold lasted some 23 years. And some investors are still waiting to break even (after adjusting for inflation).

 

/see: http://www.avaresearch.com/avanew/articles/299/Fools-Gold-Part-3.html

Better to trade silver which is more volatile. Or even better, stay long gold, and trade silver as a hedge.

Staying long gold these past 4 years, doubled my liquid worth, and then enabled me to purchase property with half my liquid worth. Free free-hold property anyone?

Gold on the 200 MDA. Where's the drama?

I posted this back in early October as a potential scenario for gold, surprisingly it's been pretty much bang on, gold rallied up to $1800 then sold off back down, hitting $1565 yesterday.

Good to see some realistic calls being made on gold. It makes the case for owning gold more credible for those thinking of buying.

Weeeheee!

 

Is it time to back up the truck again?

Would be for first time buyers I guess.

Never was that enthusiastic about the large spike up to 1900 as large spikes can lead to large corrections. If the correction is "equal and opposite" to the spike, then the price will dip a little below the 50 week moving average, which it's sitting on now. The next spike, perhaps mid next year, is likely to go well through 2000.

Silver finally down into the 20s, my target buying zone. AGQ down to 46, and still have a buy order on at 40 should silver plunge further.

Starting to get an itchy trigger finger, but think I'll hold off for another week or so.

.......No point bashing the buy and holders when they have done well to buy and hold over the past few years. Keep in mind also that many buy and holder types have their own forms of hedging. Spikes and consolidations were always a part of the game. If you can trade gold and make more of a profit, well done to you too.

 

Gold has predictably corrected to the long term trend after a spike up. If it trades sideways from here for a few months at around 1600-1650.... that still represents an annually compounding appreciation of around 20% odd.... which has also been predictable.

 

Why get so excited about spikes or corrections when it's the long term trend that's of importance to the [dis]invester?

Gold down? This from near 3 months ago.

The best thing to do with gold is just buy some then walk away from it. Right, back to the vege garden.

Precious Metal Pullbacks in Perspective - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-precious-metal-pullbacks-perspective

 

The current 15.6% gold decline, while considered a "major" correction, is not out of the ordinary, particularly following the late summer spike. - There have been 16%, 27%, 18%, 15% and 27% corrections during the bull market so far.

Yes, looking at the long term log chart, it was obvious at the time that the spike would correct. Predictable, and predicted on this thread. In the context of the hum-drum trend, the spikes and corrections are just so many storms in a teacup.

So do I : At $1500-1600, I would be buying aggressively in all probability.

But do not rule out prices below that - which is exactly my point, because "anything can happen"

 

If/when we crack $1600, I will be telling you about how I am buying, and what I am doing to protect the risk of lower prices

OK, so lets put the fundamentals aside, and focus on the chart. The chart has consistently proven that those who bought gold when the RSI was touching 50, have continued to do well.

With this in mind, your target of 1500-1600 looks too low on the face of it. Is it impossible? No, but neither is it likely. For the majority of those wanting to buy gold, a good buying point would be around here... or perhaps around 1650. Sounds high? Gold has never been an "easy buy". But then the earlier you bought, the easier it is to hold.

Am I being complacent? No, because even though "overweight" in gold, I am not "100% in", and am hedged for the possibility of forced deleveraging. I imagine most that have bought gold are likewise hedged in cash and other assets. All the talk of complacency is really a "straw man" argument against buy and holders because it's not an argument against the average buy and holder at all but rather against the gold [or should I say silver] bug who is 100% in and 100% certain.... who is in reality probably a fictitious [straw] character.

......I am living and Gold-investing on my wits here. I don't have a nice fat salary replenishing my investing capital, which is another important difference from some others here. I am "forced" by that lack of incoming cash flow to take some profits, so I have money to invest at lower profits. If you are lucky enough to have a job that puts investible capital into your bank account, then be grateful you do not need to live on the sharp end. But I suggest you resist the urge to criticise those that do live that way (successfully) and are willing to share their thoughts here, without "something to sell you", or a vested interest in higher gold prices.

....

Bubb, I really think you need to relax a little. Most here do not criticize your lifestyle... you are free to live how you want to. Those that have criticized your making a living as a trader are a small and vocal minority, and seem to have moved on from this thread of late. No doubt they will be back and very vocal when the market once again moves again in their favor. Then the "boot will be on the other foot once again". Why not rise above the silly polarization created by the "100% certain 100% in" minority? Most buy and holders of gold do not belong to that camp... and your criticism of B&H fails to draw the distinction. Your dire warnings against B&H have been noted, but are starting to sound shrill on this thread, which has a reasonable bias towards B&H. Note, I've often criticized the "100% certain 100% in" minority myself, but have never confused that with B&H. On the contrary, I've always advocated a reasonable purchase of gold with a reasonable portion of your funds. As you well know, I've personally hedged this by taking a different approach with the more volatile silver. The majority of other B&H'ers no doubt hedge and diversify in ways that suit them.

Why not live and let live in regard to B&H? Why confuse that with the critical minority that have obviously annoyed you?

There are going to be as many different strategies as there as different kinds of people. No one way is right... more like it's this dogmatic attitude that is wrong.

You should start listening to people who actually call the price moves well.

See: Beating B&H thread: and http://tinyurl.com/BeatingBH

 

(Ah, I forgot: "You cannot beat Buy & Hold."

Oh, nevermind. When does it stop being a fluke, and get accepted as reality?)

And you should chill out a bit and foster a "live and let live" attitude.

For the non day trader, the chart is abundantly clear that buy and hold has paid off very well.... and with the minimum of time and effort. Give it its dues.

I think the "argument" you have is with the 100% "all in" and 100% certain crowd. Actually, the majority that buy gold... and hold, have only put a reasonable percentage of their worth into it... and more often than not hedge that "investment".

Trend intact. Yawn.

50 on the RSI provides good buying points.

Silver has had the kitchen sink thrown at it in the last 6 months and they STILL couldn't break its uptrend. Speaks volumes imo.

Yes, but also speaks volumes against the hyper-inflation hype of silver to the moon....soon...

TO me, that chart looks even worse - 3PDh. This is the chart I have been studying and I have a price target of 14.50 - 15.00

How does the longer term look worse than the shorter term? The short term chart is saying hold off, and can be called bearish. The long term chart is saying hold off for now and buy on the consolidation... and is bullish. Don't you see on the face of it an upward trend... albeit a volatile one?

15 is possible again, on another round of forced liquidation akin to Lehmans, but is it probable? Of course, I guess it comes down to what your motive is for buying... whether it be to establish a position, to trade against dollars, or to trade a portion of an existing position.

Here's a chart looking at this over a longer term: ... LongerTerm-SLV

 

 

It is hard to be bullish when you see a chart like this, and especially if you take notice of the very light volume on the latest rise.

"It is hard to be bullish, short term, when you see a chart like this, and especially if you take notice of the very light volume on the latest rise."

Corrected.

... when you look at a chart like this, ie, the longer term:

My money is on the latter option:

 

 

And it's relative; asset prices decline relative to currency, and currencies decline relative to gold [some more than others].

Just to add, the above liquidity triangle [the liquidity prefernece] explains why both gold and bonds appear to be in a bull market... something that continues to mystify many.

Yes, the two lines lines need to align again!

 

I'm still not clear whether that's going to happen through a collapse of debt and money supply, a rapid decrease in value of monetary units or (at best) a slow and orderly decline...

My money is on the latter option:

And it's relative; asset prices decline relative to currency, and currencies decline relative to gold [some more than others].

I find this one truly and particularly shocking!!

 

GAZILLIONS of liquidity sloshing around in the system desperately looking for MORE YIELD, MORE MONEY, MORE RETURN, and nowhere near enough real goods or industry there to deliver it!!

 

Not that we didn't know it but it's no surprise that in the last few decades we have seen one asset and stockmarket bubble after the other, more and more environmental devastation, longer and longer working hours, more and more ludicrous financial instruments, a greater and greater wealth gap in many countries and so on and so on...

 

I think it's not too far-fetched to claim that the world is indeed drowning in liquidity and useless paper!

Ah, but think of all those gazillion holes of debt that has a claim on all those gazillions of "Janus-faced" money.

Actually you answered your own question and yes I can spend US Dollars almost anywhere as there are always plenty of takers for it. Gold on the other hand will be much harder to sell, since the spot price now seems to trending south.

Romans, Do you have a link for NZ Land/Gold, also property in NZ general. Where are the 'good' places/land. Can foreigners buy NZ property/land?

Thanks,

j

No link for NZD/ Gold, but would be similar to the other ratios. Instead of 100 ounces buying a house, think rather of 100 ounces buying a house on a decent bit of fertile land.

I don't think immigration is a problem, and foreigners have been buying property. At the moment many Kiwis are moving over to Australia, where the wages are better. Good land all over NZ, green with plenty of rain.