romans holiday

How can anyone look at the gold charts and not see that they are manipulated?

Comes down to your own particluar method I guess. Personally I purposely take an agnostic approach to manipulation. It suits me instead to focus on the 20 odd% appeciation of gold year on year in the aggregate.

So we are back around the 144 DMA. Could this be worth an entry point or could we see lower?

 

Edit: I've had a bit of a nibble and will keep on adding on the way down if it keeps dropping. 200 DMA is at $1668

Looks like as good a point as any if building a core in gold.

Or.... silver had raced up a bit quickly, and now we see the expected consolidation.

A higher high looks to confirm the bottom is in.

A retracement to around 30 looks possible over the next month before heading higher.

No-shortages of silver.

 

Article is six days old and price moved beyond $33.50 ($34.26 at present)

 

Just a healthy challenge to the silver longs.

It's OK to be bearish on silver. But if you have no skin in the game, what's the point of making permanently bearish calls on silver? Surely not to just irritate those who do have skin in the game?

Or if long silver and playing the devil's advocate then your posts won't be taken seriously.

Rounding Top Pattern In Silver. Reversal Or Continuation?

 

The current pattern in silver is a rounding top and it is often labeled a reversal formation.

 

http://www.istockanalyst.com/finance/story/5673540/rounding-top-pattern-in-silver-reversal-or-continuation

Are you shorting?

I am going to have crispy baked duck.

 

The monetary base has been hyper-inflated over the past few years because the hyper-inflated debt was threatening to hyper-deflate. With velocity going into hyper-drive again sooner or later, the hyper-inflated money supply will turn into hyper-inflated prices.

 

My duck will be hyper-crispy and it will be eaten at hyper-velocity.

This is progress... all we need now is 'was' changed to 'is'.

The Bernank has already hyper-inflated and it is only invisible to the sheeple since velocity has dropped all this time. Once it reverses, the game is up, no matter whether the Bernank is in charge at the time. This is politically irreversible. Baked in the cake.

Yes, already hyper-inflated. But the hyper-inflation was in debt. If it acts like a duck and quacks like a duck it is a duck.

What are you baking in your cake?

Beep, beep, beep, beep.

 

(Already backing up the truck, just in case. )

Hang on a sec. Silverfinger well and truly backed up his truck long ago.

Don't you think you are over-stating your case here?? I imagine you are in fact backing up your brief-case in order to convert your monthly wages to metal.

Me? Just sold goooold in order to put another buy order on a leveraged silver ETF [with silver at around 30]. If it works out, imagine I'll be the first to sell once silver hits 100. There's an exit strategy for you.

 

So, you think Jim Sinclair is an agent for Bernanke? Hmmmm.....

There is a sense in which Bernanke could think people like Sinclair as promoting his interests. Bernanke wants to stoke up inflation expectation due to the reality of deflation. Fears of hyper-inflation would be an added bonus. Bernanke's agenda is to get investors out of liquidity and into assets. And then gold is thought by hyper-inflationists and conventional investors just another hedge against inflation like so many other assets.

Personally, I don't find it hard to believe that such institutions have already compromised some (even most) of the gold gurus leading the gold cult. I believe that GEI would be "on the side of the angels" if it fights that pernicious influence.

Moralism on both sides of the debate about gold needs to be dropped. The case for or against gold should be looked at cooly and rationally, without prejudice and without emotion. Rational investors look at what is and what is becoming, not at what ought to be.

Gold not a reliable inflation hedge - study

 

LONDON | Wed Feb 8, 2012 11:56am GMT

 

(Reuters) - Gold prices have been too volatile to play a reliable role as a hedge against inflation, a study of financial assets over the past 112 years showed on Tuesday.

 

While inflation does not reduce gold's real value, it has no yield or income flow and the precious metal has given a far lower long-term return than equities.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/uk-gold-hedging-idUKLNE81702120120208

What does that have to do with the price of gold [i could have said the price of fish in China]? Gold is a prime form of liquidity, and the volatility in it should be seen akin to currency movements. It's just that in the aggregate this currency continues to appreciate relative to the rest.

Gold will go up +$1,000 the first day. +$2,000 the second, and +$5,000 the third. That's what I find more likely than the system just seizing up and freezing. Bernanke has made a promise, and he has kept it so far. Free unlimited money for everyone (sorts of).

Minus the Catastrophism and the sudden universal deluge of money, you might be onto something. That is if 'per day' was swapped with 'per year'.

You're in, but don't forget to bring a sacrificial goat!

Oui! Leave goats out of it! My Billygoat would not be impressed to hear off goats and sacrifice in the same sentence.

For those that do trade Gold, I hope you took some profits in recent days, as I did

Most often traders have different methods and time-frames. I could have taken a 50% profit on a leveraged silver ETF, but am more interested in the 1600% profit which might come by holding the position a little longer.

As good old Baghwan Osho once said: washing your brain every now and then is actually a good thing to do. I do it on a daily basis to flush out all the nutbag conspiracies I have to read about on here.

Puritan.

Let's be honest about this:

The Gold cultists are not thinking of Gold as a "safe place to store wealth." Most want and expect their gold holdings to GAIN in spending value over time. You can see this in the brief discussion that I had with Romans Holiday and others just above (posts#28,502 - 28,514.) He is not content that Gold holds its own against the CRB index, and against Home prices etc. He wants to see Gold go on rising against those other measures of wealth. He wants to see gold valued as a currency (where the sky is the limit), rather than against other commodities.

No, you have this quite wrong. You need to draw an significant distinction between gold bugs and gold bulls. I am presently a gold bull, and think gold is in a bull market. I do not think the "sky is the limit" as am not a hyper-inflationist, or a gold bug. I have been predicting for years that gold would steadily appreciate year on year at the rate of 20% odd. This prediction has been well-corroborated so far by the market. I don't not want to get something for nothing, but rather want to purchase property for a just price. At the moment property is wickedly over-inflated and has seen populations sell themselves into debt slavery. The reason for gold appreciating against all currencies, and doubly against assets, is that the market is recognizing it as an alternative currency.

Do you read my posts?? Have to wonder when I get lumped in with the "gold cultists". I think my position is perfectly rational.

I think that my postings, and those of others like RH, are sensible and rational, but they are not treated that way by the Gold Purists. The Purists got very upset merely by the PRESENCE of a "Beating Buy and Hold" thread on the Main board. Rather than attracting those who wanted to learn from what I was doing, the thread proved to be a magnet for those who wanted to rubbish the idea of my daring to trade Precious metals. Eventually, I gave up, and moved the thread elsewhere. I also stopped updating it every week. Over 6-9 months, I believe I proved someone with a technical system could beat buy and hold by spotting trading windows, even when I stuck to a strong Long bias.

OK, I retract my previous statement after reading this later post.

Gold can get overvalued as a commodity, and it can also get overvalued as a currency.

We should look at it both ways - maybe there will be times where's it usefulness as a currency allows it to stay overvalued as a commodity for a long time, but I may not welcome that day... as much as some of the Buy-and-hold Gold bulls may.

Here's your potential problem [and my prediction]. Say commodities stay volatile and choppy against the dollar over the next few years. And in turn gold continues to appreciate at 20% odd annually against the dollar as it has been doing. You'll tend to see gold getting very "over-valued" against commodities. Actually, what's happening is gold is appreciating, being monetized informally by the market.

What will I thne use as a store of value?

In a hyper-deflation, gold has to be the measure of value as national currencies slowly depreciate relative to it. This is no doubt due to the problematic nature of "balance-sheet" currencies today, where governments attempt to off-set a debt deflation.

???

"failing to think of gold as a currency"

 

Not at all.

I swap back in forth from HK$ to C$ (just as I swap back in forth from Gold/GLD.) I usually get it right, bit not always. I also use GBP and A$, to a lesser extent as "stores of value" from time to time.

My point was that if you are looking for gold to be "over-valued" against commodities then you are not thinking of gold as a currency.... that which does the valuing. Instead you see gold and commodities valuing each-other, and potentially in an on-going "see-saw" pattern. There is an important macro-economic point here that you are missing. Here's your quote here:

Exactly right.

Gold-in-things looks expensive. So will it really be a "good store of wealth" from $1730? Maybe not. Not unless people flood into Gold from things.

 

That's why I like to look at Gold relative to CRB (for example) when seeking buying windows:

The way I see it the error lies in thinking of it as another commodity, or asset... as a store of wealth instead of a store of value [one of the functions of a currency].

Do you sit on one currency all the time? If so, which one?

 

Remember: Gold generates no interest income. In fact, it costs money to store it.

]

Nope. Core sit and hold in gold, trade silver/ dollar in order to hedge.

We have had that sort of nonsense on GEI too. I fought it, and so did some others here.

 

Do you really want GEI to be part of a cult?[/b

As you must well know, I'm no gold bug. And critical of cultish thinking. But I am a fully paid up member of the fully hedged gold bull club.

Reposted from the "GEI Posting topics" thread:

 

Exactly right.

Gold-in-things looks expensive. So will it really be a "good store of wealth" from $1730? Maybe not. Not unless people flood into Gold from things.

 

That's why I like to look at Gold relative to CRB (for example) when seeking buying windows:

There's a flaw in your argument here... no, the whole argument is flawed. You are still failing to think of gold as a currency. Rather than a thing which is priced, it could instead be what prices all things. Go on, be adventurous and take this Copernican leap of imagination.

This is worth a read ...

 

How the PM blogosphere behaves like a cult

 

Yes, cult-like modes of thinking proliferate because the Internet is by its nature shismatic. It is too easy to gravitate to one site with its one simple transparent idea. The message used to be about some kind of orthodoxy, whether rational or religious. But when the medium becomes the message, thinking is moulded by being wedded to it... the medium. Thought used to develop more flirtatiously and more independently, towards a more opaque reality.

We are all heterodox today, and choose what we want to believe. The irony is that this together with the broadband tends to lead in practice to the narrowing of thought [which should be universal] to one particular wavelength - or what is worse a complete lobotomy altogether. I mean, just look at all the faces stuck in Facebook.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2012/01/28/gold-is-the-hottest-currency-in-the-world/?partner=yahootix

Gold Is The Hottest Currency In The World

The price of gold is r oaring back from its latest temporary correction, sending the bears into full withdrawal. If you sold your gold in December as it fell to $1525 an ounce, you’re probably feeling foolish at the incredible $210 rise to $1735– a 15% move in no time at all.

 

Gold, you see, is not a commodity like oil and copper and wheat. It is rather an alternative currency– one that finds buyers when paper currencies like the Euro are being hugely increased in supply by the ECB to forestall a sovereign cum bank crisis in Europe. There’s $650 billion in European bank and sovereign debt coming die before March 31, 2012 which can be sopped up by the $650 billion gift from ECB to the banks at the bargain rate of 1%. And more available from the European central bank– Europe’s very own Quantitative Easing program.

Interesting chart and long term stats on silver here:

http://www.silverseek.com/article/when-will-silver-reach-new-high

It's indefinite.. or for as long as the Bond bubble lasts. The Fed will not raise rates voluntarily because they will never accept that the US has to take its short-term medicine, so we will stagger on with ZIRP and an increasingly unbalanced economy for many many years. Japan+.

Yes, should be becoming obvious to all by now that the world is turning Japanese.... Zirp for years on end. A few had been arguing this from when the financial crisis first emerged.

History might just repeat itself here - in inverse order.

 

Or could go to 70 odd before heading down again. If the metal swap arrangements still hold at goldmoney, will think about swapping the precious for the volatile.