romans holiday

I have two cows in the new agrarian age. I am sent two bankers to re-educate. They try to milk the bull for all it is worth.

Getting hard to buy physical? How's this for a new hobby? Ancient Celtic coin cache found in Netherlands http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081113/ap_on_..._celtic_coins_2

Wow! FWIW I consider gold my base currency these days... my native currency is the Kiwi dollar and I am earning Korean Won. My saving grace is the won and the kiwi, among the worst performing currencies, are pretty much depreciating at the same rate.

I see your logic. You expect another dip in gold but also expect your purchasing currency to continue to slide. Maybe the Loonie is good, but being a commodity ciurrency it may also take a hit. Why not buy Yen or Yuan [couldn't possibly suggest the US dollar here ] if you are looking for a stronger interim currency?

The prudent investor balances a variety of factors when making decisions. To focus on just a few, present day prices and short term trends could be considered on the one hand while looking at underlying value and fundamentals on the other. To ignore the latter factors would be like sailing without a compass and clear direction. You would first be blown one way then the other without going anywhere. Ship of fools. Buy dollars now?

Sell gold for oil? What would make oil go up now? Is it not possible to see oil continue its slide to 40? Before going to 200 of course.

I bought PMs with kiwi dollars and Korean won, both of which are tanking [the fiat currencies that is]. I continue to remind myself which currencies I bought in as the media tends only to post the price in US dollars.

Hi M- Yes, excellent point. IMO we can afford to bracket whether gold is a good investment or not [though I think it is] and think of it just as an alternative and historically proven currency. Can anyone remember the last time when currencies were so volatile? And as for the US dollar, it is seriously running the risk of doing a titanic; straight up in the air before sinking... though it may take some time. Surely, the most conservatively [and openly] minded would want to have a serious chunk of there worth in gold/silver given the stress currencies are under today. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ic=5016&hl=

Do you have unlimited funds? Or are you talking about merely the desire to buy. http://kr.youtube.com/watch?v=MNmdzCAo_YI&...feature=related

That one gave me nausea.

Here's another which, thanks to constant replays by older sisters, gave me nightmares as a kid. http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv0azq9GF_g&...feature=related

"You may choose the one you believe the most". Hilarious! Can I say it might just track sideways within a range?

And, Icarus, I doubt there will be a "meltdown" next time it soars either.

Dollar devaluation it is then. If the government remains determined for the prices of overvalued property to remain where they are, the only way to re-align the economy is for the currency to devalue. Now if the boom inflated housing prices by 50% [overvalued by a third] then expect the potency of the dollar to deflate by 33% in order to compensate. That's the theory anyway, in reality things do not work out so neat and orderly so expect it to over-correct. The price would then remain the same without being over-valued. Complete madness palatable only for a nation in debt. Got to feel sorry for the poor savers and creditors.

Cheers for that. Yes, I could not even begin to imagine what it must be like to trade the gold market on a daily basis. It would do my head in.. on again... off again... double guessing myself. Though I am more of the average in and hold camp, I am not adverse to trading on a more "spike/dip" basis... and by trade I mean not on margin and with no more than a small portion of my holding. I believe Jim Sinclair is bold enough to use 30%. I might consider 10%.

DOW down, oil still selling off... gold and silver up. Their monetary qualities are starting to stir.

Personally, I am looking for a few more bouts of forced liquidation in everything, which may also hit POG from time to time, for at least the next few months. I would not be surprised to see POG go through $700 [and of course the dollar to soar again... temporarily]. Good buying opportunities ahead. I may even consider selling a few ounces on a spike and buying again on the dip. It would strangely enough be something of a liberating experience for me to actually sell some gold for a change.

Hi JT- FWIW, I “came out” and started beating the deflationary drum three months ago, yet have never been concerned with the amount of gold I held. Rather, I felt it was a bit simplistic to equate the need to hold gold with inflation [thinking not to put all your ideas in one basket here]. In the face of a looming crisis, where the deflationary credit crisis came to the fore, I wondered why it was necessary to heavily subscribe to one scenario, that of inflation. Some may say this is cognitive dissonance where you seek to further rationalize a position when confronted with evidence undermining it. But I am not so rational as to have to have first fully thought out reasons for my investment decisions [many rationalists, unconvinced of anything, could be left holding worthless paper one day]. No, I follow my instincts, and then seek to reasonably justify them. Given the brewing crisis, my instinct was to get some gold, and if the crisis plays out one way or the other, inflationary or deflationary, my instinct remains to hold onto the bit of gold I have. Obviously, the current crisis is unique and accordingly I do not think we can afford to be overly reliant on a previous explanatory model which identified the performance of gold with inflation. Even though I recognize the inflationist’s claims that the monetary supply, purely considered, is astronomically increasing, this may be negated in practice due to both continued asset deflation and a protracted credit crisis effectively freezing this money. Rather, my prime reason for owning gold now is the damage that will be done to the government’s balance sheet as they attempt to reflate. This will surely have latter-day consequences for the value of the dollar and may even prove to be the catalyst whereby a “hyper” inflation begins. To sum up, I do not view inflation/deflation as an either/or proposition as to whether one should hold gold or not. I see both of them as reasons to hold gold.

Ker, I do enjoy your charts. As for predictions in POG, do you make them on the basis of the day's trading traffic? What I mean is yesterday you envisaged $840 and today is has been revised to $680. Not having a go here, just wondering if the second price replaces the first in your mind or whether they both still stand within different time frames? Also wondering if you would have better success if you took a slightly longer term approach. Or maybe you are solely concerned with a short term trade. If so, could I ask if you trade yourself on the basis of your predictions?

Yes, makes you wonder at what point the dollar price may become an irrelevancy. Takes an effort of will to do this... being so fixated on the dollar price as we tend to be. I am starting to think less of the $POG these days and will shortly be in no need of constant reminders that I bought gold in other and weaker currencies [whose POGs have held up nicely] due to a period of spiritual financial discipline I have been practicing these days.

I like the nice big number. If only it was in another currency. I wonder what the ratio of silver to gold might become. 20-1?

Hi OJ- Yep, i would agree that we can not afford to be too dismissive of prices even if we have a philosophy of money which suggests those prices could quickly become meaningless. The reality is that things are worth what people think they are. Accordingly, it is best to balance contemporary realities with future possibilities

Remember my Grandfather would say "Good as gold" all the time. No doubt he was keen to set me on the right path... bless his heart. Wonder how long it will be before this "fuddy duddy" expression becomes commonplace again.

It would make a beautiful symmetry of it did go to that target.... though there is some ugliness preceding that particular patch.