romans holiday

Wow... already down to 700... thought it would take a bit longer. These are not normal conditions. I am just glad not to be one of these highly leveraged players having the blow torch applied to them now. Hope no one is on margin here. Wish I had more dry powder. I can only afford silver at the mo.

Aint lost anything until you sell. This market is under massive pressure and is incapable of valuing anything. Sit tight and you'll be right. http://kr.youtube.com/watch?v=zcZRL4YrKDU

Thats the thing. I nearly sold a few ounces when POG was at 900 to buy back on the dip. What stopped me was all the stories about how physical is getting more difficult to obtain. Better just to sit on it and ignore the sideshow going on now in POG.

At least it is only a few weeks you have to wait GOM. I will not be able to get my hands on my newly ordered shiny silver bars until after a few months.

Dollar heading up towards 90. Gold half way down towards 700. Just like a see-saw. Wonder when it will turn around. After the election perhaps. Or Christmas? That would be nice.

Well... the longer term they are the more sense they make. Trying to find a trend short term in this volatlility is futile. Long term you can see the way the tide went... short term is all choppiness and weather charts.

I do not think this analogy holds. A chart merely reflects the day to day behaviour of the market; it is arbitrary. An architect's plan reflects an understanding of certain objective rules of geometry and engineering; it is orderly [in the long run the market is constrained to be rational]. An understanding of macro-economics and fundamentals is the equivalent of the long term plan. Charts are more like the daily weather forecast; to know whether you can build or not for that particular day. Edit: Someone with a fundamental macro-picture which is positive for gold will not buy gold when seeing it spike. Rather, when POG is in a downward channel as it is now, they will buy. They will in effect read charts in "reverse" to those with no macro picture. They will still use the charts... but as a mere "weather report". Regards.

Yep, roll away all the charts. Close the site down. Sell up all that useless metal you have lying about. Party's over.

Certainly makes for an interesting sideshow. The picture I have in mind for the dollar is the Titanic; straight up in the air before finally sinking.

Gold down. Oil down. Dollar on steroids! Up to near 84! A purely temporary phenomenon IMO.

Far enough comment, but could you qualify it?? For example, he is very bearish on gold short term/ medium term..... Correct me if I am wrong, but I very much doubt Ker is bearish on gold altogether. Edit: Given the idiosyncracities in both the market and the economy these days, I would not take too much notice of TA.

I heard an interesting comment the other day to the effect that falling libor rates may only represent "pretend" lending between banks... as Uncle Bernanke stands over them. Still can not see it getting out to real lenders yet.

Just keep reminding yourself the dollar is upside-down.

And do not forget a possible currency crisis or currency devaluation at some stage. This is my main reason for holding gold. Edit: I consider gold an alternative currency. I bought gold with NZ dollars and Korean won. To date have not "lost" any money.

The problem is that many bought gold after buying into the simple inflation story. Now that events are panning out to be a lot more complicated, some are getting anxious. I became quite critical of the simple inflation rationale for holding gold a few months ago, around the time the "credit crunch" was unfolding. I saw deflation and also saw that the simple inflation story did not cut it.... in so far as a justification, from an investment perspective, for holding gold. Some have sketched a more rounded justification which includes deflation, currency devaluation and inflation.... in order to maintain a rational belief in holding gold. Edit: Knowledge as justified true belief. I would have to say beliefs come before reasons. You have an instinct that something must be true. After checking the belief is coherent, reason then seeks justifications for that belief. If reasons came first it would be very difficult to believe anything.

Hi Steve, Yes, I think a combo of bars and coins would be good. Diversity and all that. I see what you mean about the packaging. I was hoping that they would come in "rolls". They way they are packaged would be absolutely awful for storage. http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collecta...n-182864327.htm

All the same, I do find them entertaining.

This would IMO constitute a re-booting of the economy, bringing shelter [a basic necessity of life] into reach once again for a new generation. And here we have the politicians, with their price-fixing scheme, trying to keep afloat a fundamentally unjust and corrupted economy. Won't work... there are economic laws, and just ones at that, at work in the universe.

In my case I have a time horizon in mind. Short term, everything should continue to contract with deflation in the wider economy [due to the continued credit crisis] and deleveraging in assets. This is a purely temporary phenomenon. At some later stage, macro fundamentals will have to kick in; the US economy in is dire shape and with it the dollar will have to sink. At this time, we could expect to see chronic inflation and it is here your PM investment should pay off handsomely. As for me, I do not see gold so much as an insurance policy.... crikey we are only witnessing a depression not complete destruction. I see PMs as the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

Given the massive sell off of everything, I think POG could easily take 700 at some stage. Who knows it may go further. From my perspective, this is shaping up to be one of the buys of a lifetime. POG does not represent the real value at present. All is in flux. IMO the real value of gold will be represented when the we see the dollar itself in flux sometime in the not too distant future. Edit: Look for climbing yields in the treasury market.

Given the macro-picture of wider deflation in the economy and deleveraging in assets, I feel quite comfortable with what is going on in POG. It makes perfect sense as leveraged institutions have no choice but to sell perfectly good assets. I wonder how far... or should I say how low things will go.

EVERYTHING slowly deflating. Oil down to $73 and falling. Nearly down half from the top. Who would have guessed this a couple of months back? Apparently it needs to be $55 for the Saudis to balance their books. I would be surprised to see POG stay up in this environment [short term].

Cheers for that. Gosh, a few months ago I imagined I might be priced out of the market [gold]. It's crazy that even with such a low price, it is becoming more difficult to buy physical gold and silver due to demand. Mind boggling really.

opps

I believe the ounce price for both coins and 1 K bars are the same at NZ mint. And 18% premium on both. Should I just be buying coins?