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Trump: "We are at war... we are letting (dangerous) people in without documentation" The O'Reilly Factor July 14th, 2016 (7/14/16) Full Show: Donald Trump, Crooked Hillary Interviews https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCGHLAJ5M8Q

SIGNS of a US mania, as many "clammer for foreclosure properties" The Housing Market Is Waving a Red Flag Third-party investors are making up an alarmingly high share of auction purchases, according to housing-data firm RealtyTrac Michelle Jamrisko mljamrisko July 14, 2016 An auctioneer speaks to potential bidders outside a home in Atlanta. Photographer: Chris Rank/Bloomberg Share on FacebookShare on Twitter Share on LinkedInShare on RedditShare on Google+E-mail Almost nine years after the housing-market bust helped trigger the most recent recession, RealtyTrac senior vice president Daren Blomquist sees the industry waving a red flag. The same fervent speculation that abetted the housing bubble is showing up in the bloated share of foreclosures snapped up by third-party investors at auction — a record 31 percent in June, according to RealtyTrac data that starts in 2000. Many of those third-party buyers are "mom and pop" investors with less experience, said Blomquist. At the same time, institutional investors, a subset of the third-party investors who purchase at least 10 properties a year, are ducking out of the market. "It's somewhat counterintuitive — as the market gets better and there are fewer foreclosures available, demand for those good deals, those bargains in the market goes up," said Blomquist. "When you see this high percentage of the properties going to third-party investors, that is a sign that these speculators may be over-inflating the market." The third-party investors are gaining a bigger share of a shrinking pie, as foreclosure auctions made up 8 percent of all home sales in June, the lowest since August 2006. Meanwhile, institutional buyers made up about 38 percent of those investor purchases at foreclosure auctions in June, down from a steady trend of around 50 percent in the first five years of the expansion, the data show. They accounted for 2.5 percent of all home purchases in June, down from a peak of 9.8 percent in February 2013. The same kind of decline in institutional buyers was a dramatic harbinger of the last downturn as more seasoned stakeholders headed for the sidelines. "Their analytics are telling them it's not a good time to buy — that's definitely another red flag that they're pulling back at the same time as the less savvy investors are ramping up," he said. And while investors at foreclosure auctions could rely on about a 40 percent discount from the previous sales price in the early years of the expansion, this year they're only garnering about a 30 percent markdown, Blomquist said. "The pressure is building in the pressure cooker, and at some point that's going to need to be released," Blomquist said. There's a little time — "probably not in the next month or two but in the next couple of years," a downturn should set in, he said. Overall, the housing market looks great so the latest data showing a rise in speculation by non-professional investors was an early warning signal, Blomquist said. "Real estate is cyclical — it's not this steady trend upward." == > MORE: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-14/the-housing-market-is-waving-a-red-flag

The Bulls are focused on the Rapid growth of PH Steve Forbes sees more billionaires emerging from Philippines ... and the long term demographics - ie the big rise coming in the work force Steve Forbes wants to see a simplified tax system, with a low rate, like Singapore and HK. And ease of new business formations

Do Neighborhoods Spread? EXCERPT Gentrification Spreads Outward A recent report by Pew Charitable Trusts made headlines by showing that gentrification was much rarer than we might imagine. By Pew’s definition, only 15 of Philadelphia’s 372 census tracts gentrified between 2000 and 2014. The city’s racial trends tell the same story. Figure 1 shows the ethnoracial composition of the city’s households according to the Decennial Census.[1] From 2000 to 2010, the city changed from 47.9% White to 42.6%, from 40.3% Black to 41.0%, 3.6% Asian to 5.2%, and 6.4% Hispanic to 9.3%. The overall story of the city is not one of increasing Whiteness. However, gentrification is the story of some neighborhoods. Figure 2 maps the race and ethnicity of University City in West Philadelphia. Blocks are colored as a weighted average of their household races, so that 100% White blocks would be blue, 100% Black blocks green, 100% Asian blocks red and 100% Hispanic blocks orange. A block that was 50% White and 50% Hispanic would be a blue-orange mix, appearing brown. First, notice the extreme segregation; blocks are often all-White or all-Black. The boundary that emerges between the two regions is sharp and well-defined; within the distance of one or two blocks, the households change from all-Black to all-White. Second, notice that the way gentrification occurred is that the boundary moved. Demographics changed only on blocks just along the boundary—we don’t see population change in the middle of the large all-White or all-Black cluster—and on those blocks it changed sharply. Zoomed out, it’s clear that the White cluster to the right has expanded westward, taking over blocks from the Black cluster. Graduate Hospital, in south Center City, shows the same pattern. In 2000, there was a well-defined boundary between a White and Black cluster that lay just below South Street. As the neighborhood gentrified, it did so by that line moving south to Washington Avenue, with sharp changes in the blocks that the boundary passed over. The Fairmount neighborhood, another noted center of gentrification, also had a boundary that moved. In 2000, the Black cluster extended south of Girard Avenue, by 2010 the boundary had moved north to reach that business strip. A walk through the neighborhood will exhibit that the boundary has now passed even farther to the north. == > http://www.econsultsolutions.com/do-neighborhoods-spread/

Anti-Gentrification Graffiti Pops Up in West Philly The taggers hit Clarkville at 43rd and Baltimore, a neighborhood that’s transformed in the last 15 years. By Jared Brey / May 27, 2016 29 Comments image: http://cdn.phillymag.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/FotorCreated.jpg Photos courtesy of West Philly Local A restaurant called Clarkville at 43rd Street and Baltimore Avenue in West Philly was tagged early Thursday morning with an anonymous note: “Gentri Go Home.” (They misspelled “gentry,” but you get the idea.) The restaurant’s owner, Brendan Hartranft, told West Philly Local that he wished the painters knew what the place was all about. On Friday, Hartranft’s wife and business partner, Leigh Maida, told Philly Mag that they try to make their restaurants accessible to everyone. “I’m not Stephen Starr,” Maida said. “I’m not The Man. I’m in debt.” So, Maida said, it was a morale boost that Clarkville had a busy night last night after she personally spent time buffing paint off the walls. Neighbors apparently came out in droves with words of support. “It’s sad to me that some people don’t get it, but it’s encouraging to know that a lot of people do,” Maida said. Of course, it’s true that the neighborhood around 43rd and Baltimore is pretty well gentrified. Clarkville itself used to be Best House, a bastion of cheap forties and pizza for years. A Pew study released last week found that two nearby neighborhoods in West Philly had experienced gentrification in the last 15 years, and that’s using a pretty rigorous definition. It’s one of only a few areas that has gentrified in Philadelphia, according to Pew, while much more of the city is stuck in deep poverty. Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/05/27/gentrification-graffiti-clarkeville/#wJcP8xfMSFpIoBmu.99

According to the report "Philippines: Cruise Control" by Asianomics Group Ltd., the Philippines remains to be in "relatively good shape", posting strong economic growth which is seen to be more robust later in the year, with sustained investor confidence and growth potential on the local scene. The Hong Kong-based research company makes use of an Austrian stress analysis that involves credit and profit cycles as well as cash flows. The analysis shows that the country remains in the economic upswing phase of the business cycle. This is in line with the forecast that 2016 will post accelerated growth, compared to 2015 growth rate. Based on the stress test among emerging and developed countries, the Philippines got a +3 total score, a one-point improvement from the score in December. This is the second highest score after Taiwan. With sustained consumer demand and an increase in infrastructure investments, Asianomics Chief Economist Jim Walker said the country can expand by 6.5-7 percent this year. Asianomics also attributed the economic growth to the business process outsourcing sector and remittances from Filipinos working abroad. Both are expected to post $25 billion each in flows this year, with BPO revenues reaching the level of remittances at 17 percent. Source: http://www.bworldonline.com

Donald Trump meets with Ted Cruz, Reince Priebus QuintNews - ‎11 hours ago‎ The two men met Thursday with Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus at the National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters were Trump also met with several dozen other Republican senators on Thursday.

I.M.'s COMMENTS, (he's an ex-banker with a Realtor's license - received by email): I agree with the points raised, especially on the shortage of the spaces for people working in Makati (data says that only 4% of the workforce can be served by existing and 2016 inventory in terms of units. Though we could say that this number is understated, given that a unit could be let out to multiple people. But perhaps not by much). Gauging the market could be complicated once you include these details though, as say, are the people who do work in Makati people who can afford buying condos for themselves? I'm not an economist, but my gut feel here is that people will continue to buy as long as they are confident that they can afford it (for short term gauging of demand on the reservation side) and banks and FI's are confident that these people can pay (for purchases that are or near turnover). With improvements in the process of home loans, perhaps the secondary market can benefit from the continued rise of primary prices (especially if these will be used as benchmarks by some bank appraisers to grant loans for secondary purchases) and keep prices stable or even rising? However, we do know that this is not true for most secondary sales now, and prices are falling in certain developments. Poor maintenance is one reason, but competition from new units is also distorting values. Without clear cut data and professional valuing methodologies, properties are pegged by owners at asking prices of neighboring properties with inflated asking prices (due to the effect of friendly financing perhaps?), forgetting that the cash market (which is what the secondary market is from the way I see it) is different from developer-driven pricing. This is one reason why Makati Prime can be valuable to the practice of brokerage and investing, and why meetings and information sharing like this is valuable for both veterans and newbies alike. As a Side Note - if REITs are truly coming here, then we might see more stability in the prices. I assume REITs will have professional property managers in place who are incentivized to stabilize values for properties.So we shall see if price drops would happen quickly. Another monkey wrench is that CON-CON, which will likely happen by 2020 based on news data. If foreign limitations are limited, we may see a lot of speculation and then a spectacular crash before the end or immediately after the end of the Duterte presidency. I guess, as I always say, we shall see.

THE OTHER SIDE - Bull's arguments (DrB, after meeting some optimistic agents) I was exploring a Makati on Sunday, and I dropped into the showroom to check out XXX Project, and I met two agents there (J. and R.) and wound up having a long and interesting chat, as it was raining outside. I got an update on the developer's projects, and also learned a few things, which might serve you guys as you develop Short Term letting opportunities. I also spoke to the guys about the value of the data on Makati Prime, and how I use it... Some other points: + MMM is more flexible that many other developers, both on the payment structures it permits, and also (apparently) in being more willing to allow short term lets. We spoke about how some other developers like AAA, may be starting to enforce the 6 months minimum rent period. + J. also raised an interesting point that I have not thought concerning the coming market correction. He said there are far more jobs than condos in Makati, so it is now and will remain "short" of housing despite the high deliveries over the next few years. I agree will this, but I still anticipate a drop in rents and maybe a fall in prices as new supply is absorbed and vacancy rates may jump for 2-3 years. J. thinks that time and the pace of investment will aid absorbsion simply because people working in Makati are gaining wealth, and shifting their investments into Makati condos, partly because they have been encouraged to invest by the arguments of developers. More people employed in Makati, have a share of their growing wealth in Makati flats, and so a rising number of people will be able to afford to live in Makati rather than commuting. JM believes they will move in and/or have family to move in, rather than deserting their investments. To J., it really matters WHO OWNS the Makati Condos, and why they bought them. They are mostly in the hands the hands of committed and responsible investors with jobs in Makati (this comes from a guy who did a lot of selling to the buyers) + To put this another way, the number of Condos in Makati is scheduled to rise from 19,340 at the end of 2015 to 27,520 by the end of 201x - that's a rather huge +42% increase. At the same time, there will a tiny <1% rise in Makati office space. This sounds alarming, and I have written about the discrepancy. However the new condos will mostly be in the hands of people who have a use for the condos, and want to live in them, or have friends or family who plan to live in them because they work nearby. Over the 3 years, there will be a jump in the wealth of Makati workers which is held as Makati condo because they were convinced to make the investment because they wanted to avoid long commutes and traffic jams. This voluntary deployment of people's rising wealth into condos will help to lend stability to the market - more so, than if all those new condos were simply owned by people with no employment connection to Makati. (These are my words, based on a conversation I had with J.) . One developer is Experimenting with lower rise, family-friendly Condos While the other is stressing the advantages of having the opportunity to walk to work in Makati Good points of living in Makati - from Makati Prime Landing page (scroll down, to post #10) Living in Makati...Can deliver savings: On Time, and Fuel "Every ten minutes you leave your car idle, you are losing between 0.1 and 0.6 liters of fuel . And if fuel costs Php 41 a liter, that's Php 24.60 per hour. If you multiple that by the extra 700 hours that commuters spend in traffic, that translates to at least 17,220 wasted on fuel alone! Those living in Makati can avoid wasting that much money + money spent on an owner-occupied condo is not wasted on rent + the owner of a Makati condo will have more time to spend on other pursuits, including family

UBS expects some modest drops in Capital Values, like 3-4% - over 2017 and 2018. They expect a 10% drop in Rents, concentrated in 2016-17 MDS comment: "Bottom line = why buy on the primary market if the secondary market is about to offer great opportunities, no delays, bargaining power for buyers, view of the finished project, no bullshit." > source - post#95 : http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1907685&page=5 OTHER VIEWS --- Coming....

CALLISTO : New Tower being launched at Circuit in mid-2016 38 stories, next to Solstice Expected price: P 140k per SM > http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1939181

Donald Trump has a 10-point lead over Hillary Clinton in this poll MarketWatch Despite his multiple professional bankruptcies, some Americans believe billionaire developer Donald Trump might still know more about real estate than his rival Hillary Clinton. Some 39% of those polled said a Donald Trump presidency would improve U.S. real-estate values more than if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (29%) became commander-in-chief, according to a survey carried out last month of 2,000 Americans by the Harris Poll on behalf of Trulia, a San Francisco-based real-estate research group. Only 15% of Americans said that real-estate prices would fall under Trump, slightly higher than Clinton’s polling at 13% seeing a real estate decline under her presidency. “Americans give an overall edge to Trump in our poll when it came to a strong housing market,” the report, released July 7, said. Notwithstanding most registered Democrats’ antipathy for all things Trump, 47% of those identifying as Democrats said housing prices would rise if the billionaire real-estate developer was elected, compared with just 24% who said the same about Clinton. Independents by a margin of 35% to 25% also saw Trump being better for real-estate prices. Trump owns his largest margin on the issue among younger voters aged 18 to 39, the poll showed, with a 21-point advantage of 49% to 28%. Perhaps echoing his populist campaign of Americans left behind in the economic recovery, Trump performed best during the primary in counties that had seen only modest recovery (less than 4%) in real-estate prices since the 2009 housing crash, while losing those that gained 6.6% or more. For her part, Hillary Clinton won counties in the primary where real estate appreciation was a modest 3%, while losing counties where real estate gains were 7% or better to Senator Bernie Sanders. Still, even with the rate of Homeownership at a near 50-year low, the issue of housing has taken a back seat in this election cycle, at least compared with the 2008 and 2012 election cycles. == > MORE; http://www.marketwatch.com/story/donald-trump-has-a-10-point-lead-over-hillary-clinton-in-this-poll-2016-07-08?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts Written by a Jew (and/or edited by one). It is so obvious, when you see this lead: "Despite his multiple professional bankruptcies..."

THREE Hong Kong Estates ...and the gap remaining above the 2008 High in Property prices Sorrento - at Kowloon station $13,734 to $12,000 : would be a drop of -12.6% This comes after a 160% Rise, from $7,300 (in 2009) to $19,000 Metro HV - near Olympic station, one station from Kowloon Station $8,836 to $4,900 : would be a drop of -44.5% This comes after a 184% Rise, from $3,800 (in 2009) to $10,800 Caribbean Coast - in Tung Chung, about 40 minutes journey from Kowloon station $6,146 to $3,300 : would be a drop of -46.3% This comes after a 204% Rise, from $2,500 (in 2009) to $7,600 Sorrento can get there easily (to the old 2008 high), but probably not the others. These charts show how the cheaper properties have outperformed - so much for the idea of buying only the most prime locations! (that expensive agents foisted on people)

2016 Production Update Gran Colombia also announced today that its total gold production for the month of May was 13,141 ounces bringing the total for the first five months of 2016 to 56,682 ounces, up 36% over the same period last year. At the Segovia Operations, 11,023 ounces of gold were produced in May bringing its total production to 46,976 ounces for the first five months of 2016, up 44% over the same period last year. A 50% increase in tonnes milled in 2016, averaging 735 tpd through the first five months, has been the primary contributor to Segovia's production improvement in 2016. In the Company-operated mining areas at Segovia, which represent about half of the tonnes milled this year, development and mechanization activities in the Providencia and El Silencio mines have generated a 50% improvement in tonnes milled in 2016 and a 17% increase in head grades compared with the same period last year. Gran Colombia has also seen a 49% increase in ore sourced from the contract mining cooperatives in the first five months of 2016 with head grades averaging 22 g/t. At the Marmato underground mine, May's gold production of 2,118 ounces brought the total for the first five months of 2016 to 9,707 ounces, up 7% over the same period last year. Gran Colombia remains on track to meet its annual production guidance of 120,000 to 138,000 ounces of gold. == > http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2016/Voting-Results-of-the-Annual-Meeting-of-the-Shareholders-of-Gran-Colombia-and-2016-Production-Update/default.aspx Prod.: Total-- : Segovia : Other- : Qtr.1 : 31,489 : April : 12,053 : May- : 13,141 : 11,023 : 02,118 5mos : 56,682 : 46,976 : 09,706 June : 13,000E Qtr.2 : 38,194E Vs.Q1: +21.3 % Total : ---- 5mo'15 36,334 : 32,622 : 03,712 : Change: + 56 % : + 44 % : ==== : 2015-q4 : 2016-q1 : 2016-q2 : Revs : $XX.XXM : $34.50M : $47.88M : Prod. : 30,000e : 31,489 - : 38,000- : Sold- : 30,000e : 29,686 - : 38,000- : perOz: $1,000 - : $1,162 - : $1,250- : Aver. : $1,096 - : $1,175 - : $1,260- : Cost- : $XX.XXm : $20.33M : $26.60Me perOz:: $1,000 - : $ 0,685 - : $ 0,700- : otherC: $XX.XXM : $13.92M: $14.00Me AdjNet: $XX.XM : $00.25M: $07.28Me : Shs-OS: XX.XX M : 125.5m : 157.8 m : Per Sh.: ---------- : $ 0.002 : $ 0.046 : ====== AvGLD : $105.4 - : $112.4 - : $120.0 - : Ratio - : r-10.40 : r- 10.45 : r- 10.50 :

GOLD and the 4-6 months Cycle Updated - to 7/7/2016 : GLD: $ 129.74 (last low: $115 at end-May) / HK2840: $ 1,113

GOLD and the 4-6 months Cycle Updated - to 7/7/2016 : GLD: $ 129.74 (last low: $115 at end-May) / HK2840: $ 1,113

Uranium’s Bearish Message for Gold June 24, 2016 With the Brexit vote now decided, a lot of attention has turned to gold as a supposed “safety” asset. Most traders who lived through the big decline of 1980s do not think of gold as a “safe” asset. And the message of this week’s chart is that expectations for a big gold price rally from here may be misplaced. A year ago, I wrote here about the role of uranium prices as a leading indication for what gold prices will do later. A 7-month lead time seems to be ideal for getting the best fit between the two plots. The recent rise (since late 2015) in gold prices is a bit of a delayed reaction to the rise in uranium prices. But looking ahead from now, we can see that the recent drop in uranium prices is foretelling a drop in gold prices over about the next 6 months. Gold can sometimes ignore uranium’s message, as we saw in 2009-2010 when gold trended higher in spite of uranium having trended downward. That was an adjustment process following uranium’s big spike up move in 2007, and uranium’s 2008-10 downtrend was a process of unwinding those excesses. So yes, there are exceptions to this model working perfectly. Right now, we do not appear to have a bubble in uranium prices to suggest that something is amiss in the model. So I am expecting that gold should be able to stay with the program, and head downward into late 2016. Such a move would also fit well with the expectation from the 8-year cycle in gold prices. Tom McClellan Editor, The McClellan Market Report : http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/uraniums_bearish_message_for_gold/

This chart from last year - and its wave count had it right about a major peak near 670p... Since then, what has happened? A HUGE fall in BDEV's share price For those who say Brexit does not matter... Barratt shareholders may disagree. The share price took a swan dive as the Brexit vote happened, and there remains a lot of ground to be made up, if it is going to regain the old price levels. BDEV ... 5-years : Last: 349.10 (7/7/2016) In fact, we may see 300p, or even 150p before we see 600p again. And this chart may be giving a very negative prognosis for the next 2-3 years in the London and UK property market *chart was updated, with comment: "GBP may or may not get to $1.20, and if it does, it may not stop there. So I make smaller trades, and use options, until the level looks right, and the price looks right. I might buy something in the property sector at $1.20, such as Barratt / BDEV, but only if both charts look right then. Right now, BDEV is sliding: With a recent Low 326P, it is about 50% off its 673P high. Right now, It would not be surprising to see a decent bounce off that low - since 50% is often a key support level. But I do not think 326P will be a major low, unless it is successfully retested, and it holds The 50% drop in Barratt shares does not bode well for UK property, and especially London property. I recommend people stay away from buying London property for months or years, no matter what the Property agents may be telling you. As them to post their opinions or comments in a public forum like this, and we can see what their track record is. Mine is not hard to find. (I am sometimes wrong, but my views are researched, independent, and right often enough for me to not be afraid of scrutiny.)

This chart from last year - and its wave count had it right about a major peak near 670p... Since then, what has happened? A HUGE fall in BDEV's share price For those who say Brexit does not matter... Barratt shareholders may disagree. The share price took a swan dive as the Brexit vote happened, and there remains a lot of ground to be made up, if it is going to regain the old price levels. BDEV ... 5-years : Last: 349.10 (7/7/2016) In fact, we may see 300p, or even 150p before we see 600p again. And this chart may be giving a very negative prognosis for the next 2-3 years in the London and UK property market *chart was updated, with comment: "GBP may or may not get to $1.20, and if it does, it may not stop there. So I make smaller trades, and use options, until the level looks right, and the price looks right. I might buy something in the property sector at $1.20, such as Barratt / BDEV, but only if both charts look right then. Right now, BDEV is sliding: With a recent Low 326P, it is about 50% off its 673P high. Right now, It would not be surprising to see a decent bounce off that low - since 50% is often a key support level. But I do not think 326P will be a major low, unless it is successfully retested, and it holds The 50% drop in Barratt shares does not bode well for UK property, and especially London property. I recommend people stay away from buying London property for months or years, no matter what the Property agents may be telling you. As them to post their opinions or comments in a public forum like this, and we can see what their track record is. Mine is not hard to find. (I am sometimes wrong, but my views are researched, independent, and right often enough for me to not be afraid of scrutiny.)

BUBBLE? Or just a Healthy Correction "18 years Property Cycle, which is generally: 14 years up, and 4 years down" I'm not sure there's a Bubble, since that usually means a 30-50% drop in Property prices. I'm expectlng correction from a possible peak in 2016, over the next 3-5 years, let's say until 2019-2020, But the correction need not be as large as 30% - it could potentially be that deep, but something like a 15-25% drop, if that much, seems more likely to me. This chart shows Capital Values in Makati 3BR flats : Prices rose from about P 65,000 per SM to P 151,000 : that's + 132%, over 14 years. Chart Updated to Q1-2017: In recent years, Capital Values (blue line) have risen with Rents (green line), but race ahead of CPI (red line). If capital values fall back to the CPI line, which may be about P 130,000 in 2019/20, that would be a drop of almost -15%. And here's a longer chart, showing LAND prices back to 1994 ... PB : Notice that... + There was a big spike up, in 2-3 years, when Land prices more than doubled + Then over about four years, that gain was retraced (more than retraced in Makati + There was a low in 2002-2003, when Makati CBD Land prices fell to about P 170,000 psm + Then, over about 12-13 years, Land prices rose to P 500,000 psm, a gain of almost 200% + I reckon it was easier to retrace a sharp two year gain (like after 1996), than it would be to retrace a slow and steady gain + If the gain of the last 2-3 years gets retraced, then Makati Land prices would fall back to about P 400,000 psm I'm expecting that future prices moves may conform to the 18 years Property Cycle, which is generally: 14 years up, and 4 years down And so: Low-2002 + 14 years = Peak-2016? + 4 years = next Low: 2020? or so, prior to the next Long Cycle upturn As shown above in chart#1, a retracement back to the CPI line (red) by 2019-20 would P 130,000, or nearly 15%. I chose that red line, because it may approximately represent rising salaries, and so could be a good measure of affordability. In fact, it may be easier for RENTS to fall back 10-20%, than PROPERTY PRICES. A big jump in condo completions is expected over the next 2-3 years. That will push up vacancies, and put some pressure on Rents. Here are some figures - based on what was in Colliers Q4-2015 report (see also the Office thread, post #4): At Q4, 2015 Location: End2014/2015F: SUPPLY / 2016F : +% : End S- / 2017F : + Pct.: End S- / 2018F / 2019F ======= Makati - : : 18,337 / 1,000: 19,337 / 4,148: +21.5%: 23,485 / 2,962: +12.6%: 26,447 / 1,072 / 0,598 B.G.C. -- :: 19,427 / 2,779: 22,206 / 6,931: +31.2%: 29,137 / 4,125: +14.2%: 33,262 / 2,831 / 2,482 Ortigas-- :: 13,820 / 2,430: 16,250 / 1,355: +8.34%: 17,605 / 0,899: +5.11%: 18,704 / 0,422 / 0,570 ====== The huge jumps in supply for the next two years (7,110/36.8% for Makati, and 11,068/49.8% for BGC) will not be easy to absorb without a drop in Rents. Of course, many of these flats may be taken up by the owners, or their friends and family. However, if tenants for new flats move out of other flats in the same area, the new completions will create vacancies. So owners may have to offer discounts to get people from outside Makati to take-up their empty flats. The good news is, that many people work in Makati, and commute a long way, and so there is good potential demand, provided the price is right. The question is, how much will Rents have to drop to attract new tenants who have not already moved into Makati? A two year jump in supply of almost 50% for BGC looks particularly scary. But there is a mitigating factor. There are very few new Office completions due for Makati before 2019/20. But the rise in Office completions for BGC is truly massive. Here are some figures, as adapted from the Office thread: Let's look at a simple ratio - of Office space to Condos, and see how it is shifting over time: -------- : ------ End 2014 ------ : : ---- End 2015 -est-- : :----- End 2016 -est-- : : ---- End 2017 -est-- : : ---- End 2018 -est-- : AREA : 0ffice /Condo: Ratio : 0ffice /Condo: Ratio : 0ffice /Condo: Ratio : 0ffice /Condo: Ratio : 0ffice /Condo: Ratio : Makati : 2,847 / 18.34 : 155.2 : 2,833 / 19.34 : 146.5 : 2,833 / 23.49 : 120.6 : 2,853 / 26.45 : 107.9 : 2,893 / 27.52 : 105.1 : B.G.C. : 0,975 / 19.43 : 50.18 : 1,161 / 22.21 : 52.27 : 1,505 / 29.14 : 51.65 : 1,783 / 33.26 : 53.61 : 1,888 / 36.09 : 52.31 : comb.- : 3,822 / 37.76 : 101.2 : 3,994 / 41.54 : 96.15 : 4,338 / 52.63 : 82.42 : 4,636 / 59.71 : 77.64 : 4,781 / 63.61 : 75.16 : At10sm: worker/condo: 10.12 : workers/condo: 9.615 : worker/condo: 8.242 : workers/condo: 7.764 : worker/condo: 7.516 : Ortigas: 1,299 / 13.82 : 93.99 : 1,380 / 16.25 : 84.92 : 1,440 / 17.61 : 81.77 : 1,455 / 18.50 : 78.65 : 1,494 / 18.93 : 78.92 : Rockwl.: 0,??? / 4.159 : ?? ?? : 0,??? / 4.159 : 00.00 : ???? / 4.159 : 00.00 : ?? ?? / 4.505 : 00.00 : ?? ?? / 4.997 : 00.00 : ============ When I examine this data carefully, I am less worried about a possible large correction... The Main thing which inspires confidence is the rapid rise in Office space, mainly in BGC. The jump from 1,161k sqm at 12/2015 to 1,888k sqm at 12/2018 is a huge jump of +62.6% in only three years. If those offices fill up, which seems likely then there will be a big jump in jobs in the area, and that will help greatly to fill up the new condominiums. In fact, the rise in BGC condos over the same period, from 22.21k to 36.09k, is "only" +62.5%.. Thus, the balance ratio in BGC shifts from 52.27 to 52.31 - ie virtually unchanged, and so there should be the same amount of office space (and jobs?) in BGC for every apartment at 12/2018 as there was at the end of 2015.(!) The Office-to-Condo ratio for Makati shifts downwards from 12/2015 to 12/2018, but it remains well above that for BGC, suggesting a larger amount of workers are commuting from outside their working area. My overall conclusion is that the Supply of New properties can be absorbed in only a few years. There may be a drop in rents, 10%, 20%. or even more (briefly?), but the availability of all that new Condo supply at similar or lower rents, will help businesses to hold down salary costs. and that too will help aid in the creation of new jobs. So I expect a Healthy correction, with a drop in Rents of maybe 15-25%, and perhaps a drop in Colliers-reported prices on "only" 10-20%, or even less. This may be achieved with a slowdown in price rises of new properties, and a stagnation of sales, with the brunt of the price falls showing up in the secondary market. Some keen sellers maybe have to accept lowball bids, which they think are 20-30% below market, but patient sellers may do better than that.

THE BUBBLE Debate: Is there a Bubble in PH Property? ==== Useful DEFINITIONS, added in edit, Feb. 2023 ==== My view is... There are THREE PRICES for Property in the Philippines Market: 1. Developers REPLACEMENT value; Which includes all their costs, land, materials, construction costs plus marketing costs, and the developers profit margins. This price is “managed” by the developers, and will rarely be a bargain. The developer might sell at this price on an instalment basis, and even help the Buyer to obtain finance from an affiliated bank. 2. COMPARABLES price Based on what prices are achieved in the secondary market, where the Seller may wait months for the Buyer to get bank finance. This may require the seller to have a clean title, and keep the unit vacant while they search for buyer. (Often is near the Zonal valuation of the property, and it may be significantly below NEW List prices of nearby properties.) 3. (DISTRESSED) CASH SELLERS price The best price the buyer can obtain from Cash buyers within a limited time frame. The buyer may have to advance funds so the seller can repay the mortgage and then wait for the title. It may not be possible for the buyer to get bank finance, so they may need to have free cash available, The buyers are often investors, who will expect to achieve an Yield similar to what they can get from the REIT market (currently 6.5%), or higher than that, if the property is old and/or needs renovation, ( Please compare my detailed description here, with some vague and conflicting descriptions people may use for “Fair Market Value.” I do people hope people will spread this to add more clarity, for Buyers and Sellers. ) ==== http://i.imgur.com/zOoAza7.jpg At least one big media company (CNN Philippines) says: NO! What bubble? Analysts see sunny property sector By Paolo Taruc, CNN Philippines / Nov. 6, 2015 http://cnnphilippines.com/incoming/qmxf2n-buildings_construction_CNNPH.png/alternates/FREE_768/buildings_construction_CNNPH.png (CNN Philippines) — Despite fears of a growing real estate bubble, some analysts believe that the Philippine economy can rest easy for now. If anything, the property sector can look forward to more expansion — especially in cities. "There is no truth to the rumor that there is going to be a real estate bubble," said Board of Real Estate Service Chairman Eduardo Ong during this year's Asia Real Estate Summit. "We are in the midst of an urban revolution," explained Jeremy Kelly, director for global research of real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL). "[C]ities have become the heartbeat of the word... land and real estate are the heartbeat of cities." Related: Philippines has most resilient economy – study JLL's 2014 Global300 index reports that cities in the list account for roughly 40% of the world's gross domestic product (GDP). Over half of the total commercial real estate investment in the list landed in it's top 30 cities. That's good news for Metro Manila, which joined JLL's Top30 list in 2014. The firm said that such is symptomatic of a "steady shift in the balance of real estate activity towards the Asia Pacific region." Rising star Kelly noted that in 2010, Metro Manila ranked 28th in the world in terms of city GDP. He predicts the metropolis to rise to the 25th spot in 2020, and the 18th spot in 2030. "Real estate will play a key role in [Metro] Manila's success, and will be a driver of its success." He also pointed out that the market has one of the highest rates of absorption among its Asian peers, and is one of the most affordable in the world. Nevertheless, his praise comes with a caveat: Kelly stressed the need for the metropolis to adopt its own "foreign policy." "[Metro] Manila needs to assert its position more forcibly on the global stage," he said. Growing IT sector "Cities that are successful are specialists in certain areas," Kelly said. The analyst believes that much potential lies in Metro Manila's information technology (IT) sector. "Its economy is far more geared towards IT than its regional peers." In a Tech-Rich Cities index, Kelly pointed out that Metro Manila ranked 10th in the world from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2015, above other cities such as San Diego, Osaka, Munich, and Beijing. Likewise, he has also noted the increasing role of the city mayor in a locale's development. "We are in the age of the city mayor." Kelly believes that a good mayor can be a catalyst of a city's success, granted that the politician is practical and closer to problems. Although urban planning poses immense benefits to a city, Kelly said that it can also go too far. He believes that cities should also allow room for organic growth, lest they lose their character and identity. "Over-planned cities lack a soul." === > http://cnnphilippines.com/business/2015/05/22/sunny-ph-real-estate-2015.html#.VV7KecmH0T8.twitter Well, that was written in late 2015, before Colliers reported a 1.6% drop in Rents, for 3BR flats in Makati in Q1-2016/

Hillary Clinton Scandal: Poll Position By FITS - July 6, 2016 ASSESSING THE FALLOUT … Got a pencil handy? Jot these numbers down … Hillary Clinton – 41.1 percent Donald Trump – 36.4 percent Gary Johnson – 7.4 percent Jill Stein – 3.9 percent According to RealClearPolitics rolling composite of national polling data, this was the status of the 2016 presidential election on the day Clinton’s big email scandal reached its zenith. How will those numbers be impacted as the fallout from the scandal continues to cascade? Good question … Our founding editor has projected that within a week, Clinton’s 4.7 percentage point lead will evaporate – and that Trump could end up taking a narrow lead. Oh, and this is assuming the mainstream media polls are accurate (which they clearly weren’t in predicting the outcome of last month’s “Brexit” vote). What do you think? How will the Clinton scandal impact the current national polling? More importantly, how will it impact polling in the handful of swing states that will ultimately determine the outcome of the election? == > http://www.fitsnews.com/2016/07/06/hillary-clinton-scandal-poll-position/

U.S. oil boom isn't dead. It's plotting a 2017 comeback Jul 06 1:09pm: New cracks have emerged in the U.S. oil boom, thanks to the crash in prices orchestrated by OPEC. More

Date---- : GCM.t : 7,692 : CAD$ : NotVal : 1% Deb. vol. : Db.O/S- Date : 6%Deb: Db.O/S- Date : TDebt : Shs-OS : MktVal. : Ent.Val. : Gold : OZ's 03/31/16 : $0.095 : 0,731 : 0.769 : 56.94 : $-------, --------- : $71.2- 03/31 : $------- : 104.0 - 03/31 : $175.2 : 125.5m : $11.92M: $187.1M : 07/06/16 : $0.140 : 1,077 : 0.770 : 82.92 : $74.00, 164.0k : $67.7- 06/30 : $78.50 : 103.3 - 05/12 : $171.0 : 157.8m*: $17.0M: $188.0M / 1366 = 137.6k ====== > Debs. : http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/market-information/default.aspx#shares > ShOS : http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/quote?symbol=t.gcm ====== Chart ... 12mos : 6-mos / 10-d :

Don Advo, the California lawyer, says: "Maybe we need a Clinton Administration - so things will get far worse, so that people see that we have serious problems in our country, and serious remedies are required" - at 15 minutes in MP3- July 5th : http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/stormfront/hr2070516.mp3