drbubb

HK 10 / HLP ... update - last: $19.98 - Now targeting $18-20 ? Your comments make sense. Many HK people rarely eat at home. So they may have a meal at the mall several nights a week. My Gf for instance, is a great fan of eating at IKEA (for reasons that escape me) - she may even eat there twice a day. On the way to an afternoon teaching session; & again on the way home. Have you ever looked at property in Manila, PH, now the most dense city on Earth (probably) I am trying to understand the Office market there now : link

TIPS on Renting Properties ( Most of them were obvious - but the last two were not: ) his also decreases vacancy, which is costly for a rental business. 5. Draft a Detailed Lease Contract Photo via IngImage Drafting a very detailed lease contract is very important, as it will save you headache later on. Make sure that it clearly states the terms on advance payments and deposits, when rents are expected to be paid, number of occupiers, and your policies regarding how the leased property can or cannot be used or occupied. This means detailing your policies regarding subletting, the presence of pets, and which alterations or improvements can be done on the property. When all are clearly detailed in the lease contract, the lessees cannot feign ignorance of the rules should issues arise. 6. Pay Your Taxes on Time One of the burdens of being a property owner is that you have to pay your annual real property tax. Failure to do so will incur a 2 percent penalty per month on the amount unpaid until it is fully paid. However, some localities (Parañaque, for instance) offer discounts for those who pay early. This can potentially save the property owner thousands of pesos, which he can add to his profit. == > MORE: http://www.lamudi.com.ph/journal/qa-how-do-i-keep-my-rental-property-profitable/

OFFICES and Mixed use in the Outskirts (Buyer resistance and traffic is getting worse in the main CBD's of Makati and BGC - time to try elsewhere for developers?) The Philippine Market in 2016 BY Lamudi 30 October 2015 / Business process outsourcing (BPO) firms are thriving... thanks largely to the country having some of the more competitive rental rates in the Asian region and having a very attractive and highly skilled local workforce / Despite slower GDP growth in 2015, land values still continue to appreciate, albeit in a matching slowed pace. A report by global real estate consulting firm Colliers International shows that growth rates of land values in Metro Manila accelerated in the second quarter of the year. Land values in the Makati central business district, growing at only 0.85 percent during the first three months of the year, rebounded in the next three by growing at 2 percent. This raised its average price to Php452,704 per sqm. Values similarly rose in the business districts of Fort Bonifacio and Ortigas Center, increasing at 1.97 and 2.1 percent, respectively. While the rise in value makes for higher prices, the demand in these areas and similarly well-known CBDs also remains high. Deciding to invest in real estate in these areas allows one to hold property and sell later on when the value has risen, or rent out to individuals or entities who are in need of space but prefer not to buy. Growth in Rural–Urban Fringe Areas Artist’s impression of Arca South. Photo courtesy of Ayala Land Rural–urban fringe areas, otherwise known as outskirts, are best described as the locations where the urban and rural transitions into each other. These places are commonly used for properties or structures that require a significant amount of land, like airports, factories, and industrial estates. While the incessant demand from the BPO industry and other business entities continues to result in an increasing demand for workspace, there is simply a lack of developable land in established CBDs, and even several residential areas. With that, developers have begun exploring rural–urban fringe for development, embarking on mixed-use projects to be able to meet commercial, industrial, and residential needs. Examples of these include the Arca South in Taguig, Nuvali in Laguna, and the Mactan Newtown in Cebu, among others. The growth in these fringe areas is projected to constitute more than a third of the annual new office supply on average for the next three years alone, indicative of the increased importance these locations have for local real estate, and making them very beneficial to those investing now or in the next year. == > MORE: http://www.lamudi.com.ph/journal/real-estate-investment-the-philippine-market-in-2016/

HISTORICAL Production co.mined contract Marmato TotGold : Silver- : Q1 -2014- : --------- : --------- : --------- : 19,200 : Q2 -2014- : --------- : --------- : --------- : 25,713 : Q3 -2014- : 02,889 : 15,590 : 06,187 : 24,666 : 31,219 : 9mos ' 14 -: 12,222 : 39,857 : 17,500 : 69.579 : Q4 -2014- : --------- : --------- : --------- : 29,034 12mos '14 : --------- : --------- : --------- : 98,614 : 125,909: Q1 -2015- : --------- : --------- : --------- : 23,973 : Q2 -2015- : --------- : --------- : --------- : 28,495 : Q3 -2015- : 04,920 : 23,028 : 06,187 : 34,339 : 43,019 : 9mos ' 15 -: 10,351 : 58.675 : 17,781 : 86.807 : Q4 -2015- : --------- : --------- : 06,182 : 30,051 : 12mos '15 : --------- : --------- : 23,963: 116,857: 147,817: Q1 -2016- : --------- : --------- : --------- : 25,000 : Est. Q1 -2016- : --------- : --------- : --------- : 31,489 : Act. April ------- : --------- : --------- : --------- : 12,053 : 4 months-- : --------- : --------- : --------- : 43,542 : annualized.> 130,626 oz. GOLD Q2 -2016- : 12mos '16 : --------- : Gold TARGET : 120,000 - 138,000

BGC Traffic chat Q: where did you get your data for upcoming supply and demand for condos in BGC and Makati? (many questions arer being asked about supply and demand in both areas from people like foreign investors.) A: That comes from Colliers Quarterly reports > http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/philippines/insights The reports are free, and I believe them to be pretty accurate. I am be the only one on the web who is tracking them "horizontally" over time, to see how the numbers change. What I have found so far, is the really scary clusters of completions, like 2016-17 tend to be less severe when the time arrives, because projects get delayed. But that HUGE cluster of completions in BGC over the next 2-3 years has me concerned. The worst case for RESIDENTIAL would be if the residential projects get delivered on time, and the office projects get delayed, and or the completed offices have trouble finding corporate tenants - and so the New Jobs which now seem likely in the area do not materialize Then, residential rents in BGC may slide. I dont expect this to happen. But we cannot rule it out. The BC problem that I think is inevitable is a huge increase in traffic, on the few roads that go there. I expect commuter traffic to increase by 40%, based on my own numbers. How will people who live and work there cope with that? Meantime, commuting into Makati may fall by 10%. as more workers move into the newly completed flats in Makati. So Makati will go back to being preferred, because it will be more accessible. That;'s what my numbers suggest. How realistic do you find these calculations and conclusions? (I am sure you know better than me. The only real data point I have is a taxi driver, who picked me up at Landmark on a Friday night, and was complaining that it had just taken him One Hour to get there from BGC. I can probably walk that fast.)

LESS LIKELY? I am thinking this sort of problem is less likely at an Avida / or Alveo property - time will tell (this is from a thread about an SMDC property): Originally Posted by Bsoler does anyone know for sure how many years warranty is there from turnover date? poor workmanship are now starting to appear i heard. I was told by the former property manager that it was 6 months, but when I accompanied my friend for her turn-over, the SMDC rep said it was one year. In any event, 18 months after the turn-over of my Tower A unit, I can see defects such as creaking tiles and grout powder coming out of my floor both in my living room and my bedroom. The funny thing is, nobody has lived in my unit. I only get to visit it for an hour every month when I pay my dues. So I can't attribute the problem to wear and tear. I have a good mind to change the whole flooring but the property manager is charging P30k as major renovation bond plus P3k admin fee > http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1343265&page=199 (and this is a Century Properties project): Originally Posted by rjohnsrud Why isn't the Stratford Residences completed? Slow as molasses development. January 11th, 2016, lochinvar This is going to be a battle of laggards. Which one is going to be finished sooner, Jaka or Stratford? > http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=780724&page=77 I have a theory about the Century City projects - but first look at this chart: CPG / Century Properties Group xx My theory is: That CPG does not want it properties to "face the market" - that is: what happens when the flats are rented out. They are price at high prices, because of the branding - Trump Tower, Milano, Stratford etc. Once people discover the low rents they are getting, they will realize they the rents do not justify the high prices. And it will be impossible to sell any more (at the high prices). So better to delay the projects and keep on selling Why the low rents? + The standard of build (thin walls, not concrete, etc - I have heard), and + Location - here's why: There aren't many jobs within a short and easy walk. The owners will try to rent there properties at high prices to well-paid expats, and others with jobs along Ayala Avenue. But the first morning it rains, and these people cannot get a cab to work, they will be on the road to losing their high-paying tenants. - That's my theory anyway. And it would explain the poor stock performance.

ETON Tower Prices Historical - 2010: Unit prices start at... (Estimates) Studio (22-28sqm) = Starts at P2.3M VAT FREE 1-BR (39-56 sqm) = Starts at P4.0M Smaller SOHO (22–32 sqm) = Starts at P2.3M VAT FREE Medium to Big SOHO (39-56 sqm) = Starts at P4.0M / *** SOHO = Small Office Home Office "Right now, Eton Tower Makati is at P106-108k per square meter. Any Condominium below P2.5M is VAT free according to Philippine Law, so all studios here are Vat Free.. starting at P2.3M. Parking is around p700-800k additional per slot" - Apr. 2010: Located at the corner of V.A. Rufino (formerly Herrera St.) and Dela Rosa St., the 40-storey Eton Tower Makati will feature a mix of residential, Soho and serviced apartment units that will have a direct connection to the elevated walkways of the Makati central business district. The units will be available in studio and one-bedroom units, priced at P2.3 million, VAT-free. The first two floors will comprise the retail component of the project. Envisioned to be a mix of Executive Residences and SOHO (small office - home office) units, ETON TOWER MAKATI will be a real vertical community. With a 2-level retail mall at the ground floor that will feature shopping and dining options for residents, tenants and neighboring buildings. Moving around in the CBD is a breeze since ETON TOWER MAKATI will be the first residential condominium directly connected to the elevated walkways going to Greenbelt and Glorietta. GARDENS IN THE SKY : A refreshing and distinctive feature of Eton Tower Makati is its Tower Gardens. These 3-storey-high gardens start from the 5th floor all the way to the top of the tower. Residents, business-owners and tenants would enjoy a refreshing oasis of green uncommon in high-rise city living. ========== I am curious, and I have been asked by others, to keep an eye open for Flats for Sale in Eton Tower, on De La Rosa So here goes: Eton Tower - for sale (OLX) ==== Price-------- : Size : PerSM : Type : Flr. : When?- : Seller P 3,028,000 : 22.00 : 137.6k : Stud. : ? ? : 33 min.: Shondell Tan P 2,950,000 : 22.05 : 133.8k : Stud. : 37 : 1 Hour : Abe P 3,100,000 : 22.05 : 140.6k : Stud. : ? ? : 2 Hrs . : Eton Condo Hse. Lot P 3,100,000 : 22.05 : 140.6k : Stud. : ? ? : 3 Hrs . : Lucious P 3,025,000 : 22.00 : 137.5k : Stud. : ? ? : 8 Hrs . : Shondell Tan: +63-927-456-38xx / +639273755785 P 3,028,000 : 22.00 : 137.6k : Stud. : ? ? : 14 Hrs : Manila Prime Condominiums P 7,000,000 : 48.00 : 145.8k : 1 BR : ? ? : 14 Hrs : Loft w/Parking. Mike: +63-920-960-46xx ========== > source : https://www.olx.ph/ph-00/q-eton-tower/ ETON TOWER MAKATI At the heart of the country's financial capital lies a jewel of an address. Eton Tower Makati rises majestically at the corner of Dela Rosa and V.A. Rufino Streets in Legazpi Village, Makati City A refreshing and distinctive feature of ETM is its Tower Gardens. These 3-storey-high gardens start from the 5th floor all the way to the top of the tower. Residents, business-owners and tenants would enjoy a refreshing oasis of green uncommon in high-rise city living. Reselling our 22.05sqm residential studio type unit at 37th floor for 2,950,000 (assume balance of 1,853,034.03 & handle transfer cost) Target Turnover Aug2016 pls contact Kristile*0919 *516 *4681* for inquiry 1 BR Loft / 2 / 40 dynamic storeys stand at the corner of Dela Rosa and Rufino Streets,comprising the jewel that is Eton Tower Makati. Brimming with residential and SOHO amenities that include refreshing tower gardens every 3 floors, Eton Tower Makati is comfortably livable as it is viable for a business to prosper in,given its strategic location and generously planned units. The first residential condominium to be directly connected to Dela Rosa-Greenbelt elevated walkway,it raises convenience to the next level. On top of its 2-storey dine-&-shop retail complex is an iconic design featuring vertical verdure allowing it to stand out in an already outstanding neighborhood. For Inquiries: ETON INHOUSE : +63-906-926-5550 Many Eton Tower flats will have a decent open view (A not so cheerful history at Eton Tower): DON'T BUY ANYTHING FROM ETON!!! Originally when I set out to buy this unit they promised that they would deliver it by the December of 2013. As you can imagine I was dismayed when I received a letter saying that it would be deliver late on October 2014! 10 full months after! I had no choice as the contract they ask you to sign stipulates that it is a grace period. But what happened next I was not prepared for when they told me that it would be delayed to 2015!!!! DELAYED BY 2 WHOLE YEARS!!! and if they can delay it by 2 years why not delay in by another 5 or even another 10 years?! When I asked for them to refund my full payment they wanted to charge me MARKETING AND ADMINISTRATIVE FEES!!!! Why should we consumers be penalized for their mistakes? I really should have not never bought anything from them especially after that ACCIDENT THAT KILLED 10 PEOPLE at ETON Residences! If any of you are interested to join up and take legal action against ETON please leave your messages and lets get in touch. == > Source: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1028969&page=11

CAN BALANCE be maintained? Maybe To be completed in the next five years: 2016 - 2017 : 1.8million sqm / 10 = 180,000 jobs Next 5 years : 106.0 k condos = 1.70 workers / condo Setting sights on the growth outlook for the Philippine property sector in 2016 17 February 2016 > : http://www.jllapsites.com/research/setting-sights-on-the-growth-outlook-for-the-philippine-property-sector-in-2016/#sthash.ZlCVunm1.dpuf While the economy is expected to perform better in 2016, the possibility of repatriation and loss of job security in Middle East countries (where the economies are being severely affected by the record low oil prices) led Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to cut growth estimates for remittances coming from overseas-based Filipinos (OFs) from 5% to 4% this year. / Those overseas workers who return will look for new jobs in the Philippines, and they may find them. Instead of renting out their condos in Manila, they may live in them, and walk or commute to new jobs . It is possible. It is conceivable. This will not be a huge factor (maybe 5-10% max.) but something to watch - DrB / On the supply side, the large completions in the commercial and residential (at least in the mid-end segment) sectors is expected to clip the growth in rents and capital values. In Metro Manila, approximately 1.8 million sqm of new office space may come on stream in 2016 and 2017, and over 106,000 residential condominium units are expected to complete over the next five years. Despite these challenges, the overall growth outlook for the local property sector in 2016 remains promising. The continual expansion of the O&O sector is expected to fully absorb the new supply in just a little over three years. The employment generated by this growth should mitigate the softening growth of OF remittances, while the increase in income levels is expected to support retail consumption and buoy the demand for residential condominium developments going forward. In Metro Manila, approximately 1.8 million sqm of new office space may come on stream in 2016 and 2017, and over 106,000 residential condominium units are expected to complete over the next five years. == - See more at: http://www.jllapsites.com/research/setting-sights-on-the-growth-outlook-for-the-philippine-property-sector-in-2016/#sthash.ZlCVunm1.dpuf

GLOBAL OFFICE Trends which will have impact in Philippines also Office culture has dramatically evolved over the last decade. With the need for a more innovative, creative and collaborative workforce, a working environment that supports this is now a high priority for many major firms. Corporate awareness of how office space can promote efficiency is not new. But the post-2007 economic downturn acted as a catalyst for many white-collar businesses to review their use of space. The desire for a technology-rich environment which promotes innovation and faster decision making while incorporating cost savings became the focus. Hot-desking as a concept has been around for decades, but the shift to Activity Based Working environments along with focus rooms, collaborative work spaces and funky fit outs has gained momentum. The potential benefits include a more flexible work environment, cost saving, improved productivity and job satisfaction. While the workspace has taken leaps and bounds over recent years, what do we think will happen over the next 10 to 20 years? Will the workspace continue to evolve or will the pace of change plateau as it did over the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s? Here are a few future work space trends to watch: To increase efficiency, professional services firms will continue to reduce space per worker. This high-performance workplace will consist of a variety of settings that provide choice and balance among work modes. Remote working will continue to gain in popularity while the office will mainly be the locus of face-to-face engagement with clients and collaboration with colleagues. . Technology will continue to drive workspace change. Laptops, instant messaging and wireless connectivity have enabled a more open and mobile workforce. Technology will continue to push the possibilities of communication and mobility, while the next generation of office workers will be more adept at maximising the benefits of new communications devices. Future-proofing will be a high priority, with greater flexibility to accommodate head-count shifts and evolving work styles cost-effectively within the same tenancy. Senior management will need to effectively plan for employee numbers to fluctuate over the lease period. CBDs will continue to be the epicentre of business activity. However, as populations grow, suburban centres will develop into new mixed use business hubs attracting a large array of office tenants and service providers – gyms, courier services, IT support and retailers. Premium CBD office buildings will create a vibrant and modern environment within and around the building that attracts a younger, more creative and collaborative workforce. The demographic shift of younger workers with a preference for living in the CBD and adjacent areas will reinforce this trend. == - See more at: http://www.jllapsites.com/research/the-evolution-of-the-office-workspace/#sthash.2RaV2IFV.dpuf

VACANCY Rates were sky-high after the Asia Crisis, now they are in the basement Amid the growing level of supply, concerns about rising vacancy rates abound. For the last few years, the Philippine office sector has been in a construction boom. Annual completions of office space in the last five years have been growing at a compound annual growth rate of 10%. Over the next four years, there is approximately 3.0 million sqm of office space to complete in Metro Manila alone. The general direction of vacancy rates in the office sector, however, can be gleaned from the healthy take-up rate, which has been riding on the back of demand from the offshoring & outsourcing (O&O) sector. In 2014 alone, gross take-up reached approximately 497,000 sqm, while new completions were only 179,000 sqm. As a result, the vacancy rate dipped further, from 4.7% in 2013 to 4.1% in 2014. Assuming modest take-up going forward, the local market could breach the frictional vacancy rate within the next three years. - See more at: http://www.jllapsites.com/research/understanding-frictional-vacancy-rates-in-the-philippine-office-property-sector/#sthash.Tv5nO3aE.dpuf Amid the growing level of supply, concerns about rising vacancy rates abound. For the last few years, the Philippine office sector has been in a construction boom. Annual completions of office space in the last five years have been growing at a compound annual growth rate of 10%. Over the next four years, there is approximately 3.0 million sqm of office space to complete in Metro Manila alone. The general direction of vacancy rates in the office sector, however, can be gleaned from the healthy take-up rate, which has been riding on the back of demand from the offshoring & outsourcing (O&O) sector. In 2014 alone, gross take-up reached approximately 497,000 sqm, while new completions were only 179,000 sqm. As a result, the vacancy rate dipped further, from 4.7% in 2013 to 4.1% in 2014. Assuming modest take-up going forward, the local market could breach the frictional vacancy rate within the next three years. - See more at: http://www.jllapsites.com/research/understanding-frictional-vacancy-rates-in-the-philippine-office-property-sector/#sthash.Tv5nO3aE.dpuf Amid the growing level of supply, concerns about rising vacancy rates abound. For the last few years, the Philippine office sector has been in a construction boom. Annual completions of office space in the last five years have been growing at a compound annual growth rate of 10%. Over the next four years, there is approximately 3.0 million sqm of office space to complete in Metro Manila alone. The general direction of vacancy rates in the office sector, however, can be gleaned from the healthy take-up rate, which has been riding on the back of demand from the offshoring & outsourcing (O&O) sector. In 2014 alone, gross take-up reached approximately 497,000 sqm, while new completions were only 179,000 sqm. As a result, the vacancy rate dipped further, from 4.7% in 2013 to 4.1% in 2014. Assuming modest take-up going forward, the local market could breach the frictional vacancy rate within the next three years. - See more at: http://www.jllapsites.com/research/understanding-frictional-vacancy-rates-in-the-philippine-office-property-sector/#sthash.Tv5nO3aE.dpuf > http://www.jllapsites.com/research/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Picture_26May20151.png

Residential and office markets expected to continue stellar performance in 2016 Year of the Fire Monkey by Roderick Abad - January 4, 2016/ http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/residential-office-market…/ ============================ Project----------------- : Developer--- : Location---- : No. Units : Price /Sq M Alveo Financial Twr- : ALVEO ------ : Ayala Ave.-- : 363 units : P223,000 Stiles, Circuit Makati : ALVEO ------ : Circuit ------ : 283 units : P198,000 Century Spire-------- : Cent. Prop.- : Century City : 283 units : P203,000 Capital House-------- : Avida Land- : B.G.C.------- : 222 units : P142,000 One World Place---- : Dai-ichi Prop: B.G.C.------- : 283 units : P136,000 Parkway Corp. Ctr.-- : Filinvest Ld. : Alabang----- : 390 units : P168,000 ============================ Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) Managing Director for Singapore and Southeast Asia Chris Fossick said new office supply is expected to be high in Manila in 2016 at 870,000 sq m, growing by 10 percent to 20 percent. He said that most of the new buildings are in the central business districts (CBDs) of Makati and Bonifacio Global City (BGC) in Taguig, where there has been a shortage. This year’s supply until 2018, however, is close to the five-year historical take-up from 2011 to 2015. With the projected spike in the office-space inventory, a moderate hike in rental rates is likewise projected—this time at 4 percent, as 18 percent of the new supply in 2016 has been already precommitted. This trend could still be attributed to the ever-expanding business-process outsourcing (BPO) industry, as some locators are moving up the value-chain and require more centrally located premises, Fossick said. Based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, the office segment accounts for 29.4 percent of the real-estate demand in the country, largely driven by BPO at 11.3 percent. Industry sources see the outsourcing sector to generate $25 billion in total revenues by end of the year. Given the top figure, the BPO industry is projected to soon overtake dollar remittances by overseas Filipino workers, most likely in two years, according to an HSBC economist in a recent briefing. Job-wise, it is targeted to hit 1.3 million full-time employees in 2016, which translates to 5.2-million-sq-m office requirement. Hence, the industry is now gearing up the “Next 10 Cities,” such as Baguio, Davao, Dumaguete, Iloilo, Lipa, Metro Bulacan (Baliuag, Calumpit, Malolos City, Marilao and Meycauayan City), Metro Cavite (Bacoor City, Dasmariñas City and Imus City), Metro Laguna (Calamba City, Los Baños and Sta. Rosa City), Metro Naga (Naga City and Pili), and Metro Rizal (Antipolo City, Cainta and Taytay). Investment opportunities AT the start of the new year, many of those planning to move to a new home or considering buying a property must be wondering what 2016 could bring to them. In view of this, Lamudi Philippines takes a look at what are potentially good real-estate investment deals in the market today. For one, Strata-titled offices are a good take, according to the real-estate portal. Contrary to the BPO office towers constructed and rented out by property developers to outsourcing firms, they can be purchased by individual investors and buyers to lease to companies. For those who want to diversify their investment portfolios, this property type makes a good business sense since there is a lack of supply of office space in the metropolis, particularly in major CBDs, placing an upward pressure on rental fees. What’s more, the decreasing land-bank options in Makati City, BGC and Ortigas Center are also raising capital values of office buildings, based on Colliers International’s third quarter 2015 report . Some of the strata-titled developments now available in the market are Alveo Financial Center along Ayala Avenue, which has 363 units and sells on average P223,000 per sq m; The Stiles in Circuit Makati (also of Alveo Land), with 283 units for P198,000 per sq m; Century Spire in Century City (Century Properties), with 283 units for P203,000 per sq m; Capital House in BGC (Avida Land), with 222 units for P142,000 per sq m; One World Place in BGC (Dai-ichi Properties), with 283 units for P136,000 per sq m; and Parkway Corporate Center in Alabang (Filinvest Land), with 390 units for P168,000 per sq m. == > https://www.facebook.com/BuildingCode.Ph/posts/1249207875090116

Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper loaded up on energy stocks Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper, who runs $20 billion Appaloosa Management... Business Insider

Go overweight on Philippines, Indonesia: Investor by CNBC Videos 4:52 mins Philippines is a perfect example of a current account surplus economy, says Rahul Chadha from Mirae Asset Global Investments (Hong Kong). > http://finance.yahoo.com/video/overweight-philippines-indonesia-investor-011000027.html "current account surplus economy" Yep. That's one of the reasons I have invested there (Here's something that was being said on CNBC a year ago - Makati's boom is about the Traffic): Overall, "the market is very polarized," said Alexander Karolik Shlaen, an economist and CEO of Panache Management, a luxury brands and real estate investment advisor. "[in the luxury segment], competition is so tough, they need to sell high-end stories," he said. For example, the Azure condominium in Paranaque city, southeast of the capital Manila, is offering a beach club house designed by Paris Hilton, while a Trump Tower is going up in Manila's Makati area. <p>Philippines central bank: No need to hike rates</p> <p>Easing inflation and growth being one of the fastest in the region justify the central bank&#039;s decision to keep its key interest rate steady, says Amando Tetangco, Governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.</p> "But if you go to the periphery, it's underbuilt," Shlaen added, saying he sees a lot of demand there, both for end-users and foreign investors. "There are not enough condos in the provinces, while Manila is saturated," he said. Not overdone Not everyone thinks Manila's condo market can be written off as overdone. While the city's luxury properties can be priced on par with nearby Singapore, "it's not a development which embodies the whole Philippine property market," Jalil Rasheed, investment director at Invesco, said in an interview in December, noting a Philippine developer is one of the larger exposures in his fund. Manila's condo boom has one key driver: traffic, Rasheed said. The congestion in Manila -- likely the world's most densely populated city-- is legendary, with a character in Dan Brown's novel "Inferno" calling the city "the gates of hell" in part because of the six-hour traffic jams. With workers pouring into the growing business process outsourcing (BPO) industry in Makati, "people want to live closer [to work] in small units, 300-500 square feet. That's really booming because it's affordable," Rasheed said. Slowdown coming? But some expect the market will face a significant slowdown. "The best days for residential are likely over," Macquarie said in a note in December, citing rising condo inventory of almost two times annual sales and a high sales base after "unprecedented" project launches. Tracts of land are also selling at record-high prices, likely denting future projects' profitability, it said, adding demand may also take a hit if developers try to pass costs on to buyers and renters. == > http://www.cnbc.com/2015/01/05/is-philippine-property-getting-bubbly.html

Look and read: Yup. This is the Big (potential) trigger - not Derivatives Derivatives just spread it around unpredictably, since every derivatives "bet" has a winner and a loser

Gran Colombia Gold Announces Completion of Debt Restructuring 01/20/2016 GCM.t ... 6-mos : 10-days : TORONTO, ON --(Marketwired - January 20, 2016) - Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM) (OTC PINK: TPRFF) is pleased to announce that today it has completed the previously announced comprehensive debt restructuring, implemented pursuant to a Plan of Arrangement under the Business Corporations Act (British Columbia) (the "Arrangement"). The new 2018 Debentures and 2020 Debentures will be listed for trading on January 22, 2016, under the trading symbols GCM.DB.U and GCM.DB.V, respectively. The first interest payment on both debentures will be made on February 29, 2016. 2018 Debenture holders will receive approximately US$1.09 per US$1,000 principal amount of debentures. 2020 Debenture holders will receive approximately US$6.58 per US$1,000 principal amount of debentures. These payment amounts represent accrued interest payable from January 20, 2016 to February 28, 2016, inclusive. The Company has issued additional common shares to certain holders of Gold Notes and Silver Notes who have, as provided for in the Arrangement, elected to receive common shares in exchange for US$150,000 principal amount of Gold Notes and US$10,960,000 principal amount of Silver Notes, plus all corresponding accrued and unpaid interest and applicable restructuring fees. As of completion of the Arrangement, the capital structure of the Company is as follows: $10.96 million face x 7.692 shs = 84.3 million shares - or 74.2% of what are now O/S Security Issued and Outstanding Common Shares-- 113,568,310* shares x C$0.09 = C$ 10.2 million / 1.38 = US$ 7.39 million 2018 Debentures US$ 71,168,174 (convertible into 547,447,492 common shares) : at US$0.13 - pays US$1.09 per $1,000 : 2/29/2016 2020 Debentures US$103,992,350 (convertible into 799,812,752 common shares): at US$0.13 - pays US$6.58 per $1,000 ===== Sub-total Dillution to a price of US$0.13 : 1,460.8 mn shs. = US$189.9mn MktCap x 1.38 = C$ 262mn Sub-total Dillution to a price of US$0.13 x 1.38 = C$ 0.179 2017 Warrants Warrants to purchase 1,000,000 common shares at an exercise price of CA$18.75 expiring October 30, 2017 2019 Warrants Warrants to purchase 4,211,918 common shares at an exercise price of CA$3.25 expiring March 18, 2019 Options Options to purchase 896,936 common shares at exercise prices between CA$1.84 and CA$55.00 expiring between January 27, 2016 and July 21, 2019 About Gran Colombia Gold Corp. Gran Colombia is a Canadian-based gold and silver exploration, development and production company with its primary focus in Colombia. Gran Colombia is currently the largest underground gold and silver producer in Colombia with several underground mines in operation at its Segovia and Marmato Operations. Gran Colombia is currently advancing a project to develop a modern, large-scale, gold and silver mine at its Segovia operations. 2/ EXCERPT: 2015 Production Update The Company announced today that its total gold production for the fourth quarter of 2015 was 30,051 ounces, up 3.5% from the fourth quarter last year. The Company produced a total of 23,869 ounces of gold and 37,740 ounces of silver from its underground mining operations at Segovia in the fourth quarter of 2015 despite operational disruptions related to external security challenges the Company faced in October and November of 2015 from a local criminal organization. At Marmato, the Company produced 6,182 ounces of gold and 8,754 ounces of silver during the fourth quarter of 2015. This brings the Company's annual gold production for 2015 to a total of 116,857 ounces of gold and 147,817 ounces of silver, up 18.5% and 17.4%, respectively, over the same period in 2014. For 2015, Segovia's annual gold production, approximately 83% of which was sourced from the contract mining operations, increased 24.7% over last year to a total of 92,894 ounces. At the Company's Marmato underground mine, total annual gold production for 2015 of 23,963 ounces was on par with 2014's production level. The Company expects to release its fourth quarter and full year 2015 financial results at the end of March 2016. > http://grancolombiagold.com/investors/press-Releases/press-releases-details/2016/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Announces-Appointment-of-New-Board-Members-and-Provides-an-Update-on-2015-Production/default.aspx

I sold my ST gold, and am planning to reinvest a bit further into this pullback. I sold because I want so ammunition for the pullback

WORKING in BGC may be no treat if the traffic keeps getting worse Stop Complaining About Traffic, Read This (Can technology help solve a problems that will fast get worse?) Commuting in Metro Manila has become a huge pain over the past decades. In a traffic study conducted by Numbeo, the Philippines ranked #5 as the worst in the whole world with Egypt, South Africa, Thailand, andIran being the top 4 respectively According to Time.com the average Juan spends around 2 hours commuting one way, compared to the American who spends 25 ½ minutes. Travelling from North Avenue to Makati will take an average of 1.5 to 3 hours at peak times. If you travel via MRT, expect huge commuter lines that could stretch up to 1 kilometer in the MRT station. If you travel by bus, you will feel that you are in an evacuation zone where people are fighting their way to get inside buses like canned sardines. These are but a few examples of the hellish experiences commuters are facing, daily. This problem can be attributed to the increase in workforce, inefficient public transportation (MRT and limited buses) and lack of good public infrastructure. In 2016, traffic is expected to become even worse as new government projects will start to kick in inside the metro. Arrrggghh!! What can we do about it? Lately, our team has been canvassing innovative apps that could help reduce traffic. . . . Wave is a great solution to traffic. Unlike Uber and Grab Taxi, Wave optimizes the use of vehicles intended for mass transport. Uber, Grab, regular taxis and private vehicles carry 1 to 3 persons per vehicle and occupy alot of space on our roads. On the other hand, Wave vehicles can carry 7 to 60 people while occupying only three times the space of a car. That is more than 16x the efficiency at a cheaper cost. We strongly recommend that you help out with this initiative. For those who wish to become part of their beta launch you can register at their website:passforwardwave.azurewebsites.net. == > http://www.timeboxph.com/stop-complaining-about-traffic-read-this/

RESIDENTIAL vs OFFICE BALANCE : Updates thru Q4-2015 - ( see also post #215 on PHP thread ) MORE: > Link- see post #215 : Keeping a Balance ? : OFFICE space versus RESIDENTIAL flats (at Q3-2015) http://www.greenener...c=18811&page=11 The Reports for Q3 and Q4 were giving hints of a future dip in rents Research & Forecast Report, PHILIPPINES : 3Q : 4Q-2015 The reports suggest big changes ahead - the supply rises in 2016 and 2017 are going to be huge. The interesting thing is the residential Supply surge that was originally forecast for 2015 did not happen, thanks to delays in completions. But it does seem logical that nearly of the projected supply increases will happen eventually, probably starting with 2016 OLD, end 2014 projections : Showed completions clustered in 2015-16, especially for Makati (also see post #101 in PH thread) Location : End2014/ 2015F: + Pct. / 2016F : + Pct . / 2017F : + Pct. / 2018F ======= Makati -- : : 18,110 / 4,608: +25.4% / 2,017: +11.1% / 1,485: +8.20% / 1,072 B.G.C. -- : : 19,427 / 5,433: +28.0% / 4,895: +28.0% / 2,979: +15.3% / 1,010 Ortigas-- : : 13,633 / 2,756: +20.2% / 1,227: +9.00% / 0,573: +4.20% / 0,422 Rck+Ewd :: 11,706 / 0,000: +00.0% / 0,908: +7.76% / 0,346: +2.96% / 0,914 Total-of-5 :: 62,876 /12,797 +20.4% / 9,127: +14.5% / 5,383: +8.56% / 3,628 But that projected 20-25% surge for 2015 did not happen. Instead: LATEST at Q4, 2015 Location : End2014/ 2015F: + Pct. / 2016F : + Pct . / 2017F: + Pct. / 2018F / 2019F ======= Makati - : : 18,337 / 1,000: +05.5% / 4,148: +22.6% / 2,962: +16.2% / 1,072 / 0,598 B.G.C. -- :: 19,427 / 2,779: +14.3% / 6,931: +35.7% / 4,125: +21.2% / 2,831 / 2,482 Ortigas-- :: 13,820 / 2,430: +17.6% / 1,355: +9.80% / 0,899: +6.51% / 0,422 / 0,570 Rck+Ewd :: 11,707 / 0,000 : + 0.0% / 0,988: +8.43% / 0,346: +2.96% / 1,124 / 1,124 =============== Total-of-5:: 63,291 / 6,209 : +9.8% /13,422: +19.3% / 8,332: + 10.0% / 5,449 / 3,919 Tl.condos: 63,291>69,500 :--------> 82,922 :-------> 91,254 :--------> 96,703 /100622 This shows, the number of Condos: + In Makati, rising from 19.337 condos at 12/2015, by 4.148 condos in 2016 - that's +21.5% ! + In B.G.C., rising from 22,206 condos at 12/2015, by 6,931 condos in 2016 - that's +31.2% ! As a result, Colliers now expects a slight FALL in rents over the next year: Location- : 2015-Q3 : 2015-Q4 : Midpt/ 2016-Q4F: Midpt: (Prev.) +/- Pct: (previous) ======= Makati-- :: 595-1155 : 600 -1166: 883 / 582-1130 : 856 (846) / - 3.06% (-3.39%) B.G.C. -- :: 681-1083 : 688-1094: 891 / 669-1063 : 866 (853) / - 2.81% (-3.25%) Rockwell-:: 804-1098 : 814-1112: 963 / 807-1101 : 955 (932) / - 0.93% (-1.79%) Last report (Q3) was more bearish Residential vacancies, Makati : Lux: 5.95% (4.40%); All: 8.93% (8.26%) / BGC: x.xx% With the expected dip in rents, Colliers is forecasting property prices to fall by -1.59% Mak., -2.53% BGC by Q4-2016, ======== The Shifting Balance Let's look at a simple ratio - of Office space to Condos, and see how it is shifting over time: -------- : ------ End 2014 ------ : : ---- End 2015 -est-- : :----- End 2016 -est-- : : ---- End 2017 -est-- : : ---- End 2018 -est-- : AREA : 0ffice /Condo: Ratio : 0ffice /Condo: Ratio : 0ffice /Condo: Ratio : 0ffice /Condo: Ratio : 0ffice /Condo: Ratio : Makati : 2,847 / 18.34 : 155.2 : 2,833 / 19.34 : 146.5 : 2,833 / 23.49 : 120.6 : 2,853 / 26.45 : 107.9 : 2,893 / 27.52 : 105.1 : B.G.C. : 0,975 / 19.43 : 50.18 : 1,161 / 22.21 : 52.27 : 1,505 / 29.14 : 51.65 : 1,783 / 33.26 : 53.61 : 1,888 / 36.09 : 52.31 : comb.- : 3,822 / 37.76 : 101.2 : 3,994 / 41.54 : 96.15 : 4,338 / 52.63 : 82.42 : 4,636 / 59.71 : 77.64 : 4,781 / 63.61 : 75.16 : At10sm: worker/condo: 10.12 : workers/condo: 9.615 : worker/condo: 8.242 : workers/condo: 7.764 : worker/condo: 7.516 : Ortigas: 1,299 / 13.82 : 93.99 : 1,380 / 16.25 : 84.92 : 1,440 / 17.61 : 81.77 : 1,455 / 18.50 : 78.65 : 1,494 / 18.93 : 78.92 : Rockwl.: 0,??? / 4.159 : ?? ?? : 0,??? / 4.159 : 00.00 : ???? / 4.159 : 00.00 : ?? ?? / 4.505 : 00.00 : ?? ?? / 4.997 : 00.00 : ============ When I examine this data carefully, I am less worried about a possible large correction, than I was before. Main thing which lends confidence is the rapid rise in Office space, mainly in BGC. The jump from 975k sqm at 12/2014 to 1,888k sqm at 12/2018 is a huge jump of +93.6 %. If those offices fill up, which seems likely then there will be a big jump in jobs in the area, and that will help greatly to fill up the new condominiums. In fact, the rise in condos over the same period, from 19.43k to 36.09k, is only +85.7%.. Thus, the balance ratio in BGC shifts from 50.18 to 52.31 - ie there should be more office space (and more jobs?) in BGC for every apartment at 12/2018 than there was at the end of 2014.(!) Another way to look at this is to assume that every worker occupies, say 5 SqM* of office space, and as you add office space. workers will be added when the space is leased out. Looking at combined Makati and BGC office space, and using this calculation, the figures show a drop from 20.2 workers per condo at 12/2014 to 15.0 workers at 12/2018. *(Filinvest uses this figure, I was told) Of course, very few Condo will have so many people living in them, and not all tenants are working - there are families too. so most of those workers will continue to commute into Makati or BGC from other areas. Following are some crude estimates about how many people may be commuting into Makati and BGC Location -------- : ---- Makati ---- : ----- / ------ BGC ------ : ----- / -- combined --- : ----- / Category -------- : end'15 : end'18 : chg. / end'15 : end'18: chg. / end'15 : end'18 : chg. / Office space ---- : 2,833k : 2,893k:+60k/ 1,161k : 1,888k:+727k/ 3,994k : 4,781k:+787k/ Workers @ 5 sm : 566.6k : 578.6k: +12k/ 232.2k : 377.6k:+146k/ 798.8k : 956.2k:+158k/ Condos, number : 19.33k : 27.52k: + 8k / 22.21k : 36.09k: +14k / 41.54k : 63.61k: +22k / Condo; house x2 : 38.66k : 55.04k:+16k/ 44.42k : 72.18k: +28k / 83.08k : 127.2k: +44k / Commuters ------ : 508.6k : 496.0k :-13k/ 165.6k : 269.3k:+104k / 674.2k : 765.4k: +91k / If my calculations are approximately right, the commuting into Makati will be approximately the same as now, and may even fall somewhat - perhaps by 2.5% or so. This makes sense, because more workers will be housed in condos, and will be able to walk to work. (BTW, many people, maybe 50k or more are living in houses in villages around Makati, and I have ignored these. Some can now walk to work.) But the jump in commuting into BGC is alarming. My estimates show that 104,000 more workers may be commuting into BGC. In three years, by the end of 2018 that could jump to 269,300 workers - a rise of 62.6% The limited access roads into BGC are already choked for much of the day, if you put 63% more cars and buses on the road, the traffic jams in and out of BGC are going to be near impossible. The authorities should be thinking about getting more people into buses, rather than private cars, and they also need to begin some real progress in getting an underground traffic link between Makati and BGC.

Q4 - 2015 REVIEW Growth accelerates to 6.3% in the 4th quarter The Philippine economy grew at its fastest rate in 2015 during the fourth quarter, posting growth of 6.3%. However, this accelerated growth was not enough to compensate for the slower growth during the first three quarters, ending up with an overall growth rate of 5.8% in 2015, compared to 6.1% growth in 2014. The services sector once again led the economy in the fourth quarter with an impressive 7.4% increase; it contributed to the overall economy by growing at a full-year rate of 6.7%. Office A total of 484,092 sq m of net useable area of oce space was completed in 2015. This includes seven new buildings in Fort Bonifacio that were completed during the fourth quarter. While vacancy rates in areas without any recent completions remained low, the recent completions in Fort Bonifacio led to an increase in vacancy of 6.7%. An annualized growth in rental rates of 7.0% for all areas was observed, with Makati premium office buildings rising the highest with a 10.4% increase for 2015 . . . A net of 484,092 sq m of new oce supply was delivered in 2015, slightly missing the estimate of half a million square meters of net useable area for the year, with some buildings being pushed back on their completion dates. Seven buildings were completed in Fort Bonifacio consisting of almost 153,000 sq m of net useable area; this includes Net Park (55,098 sq m) and Cocolight Building (5,170 sq m). The BDO Corporate Center (75,072 sq m) in Ortigas Center has also been completed. In Alabang, the ATC Corporate Center (18,270 sq m) was also finished in the fourth quarter. Vacancies rise in Fort Bonifacio amid new inventory The vacancy rate for offices in Makati CBD remained low with only a slight decline of around eight basis points to end at 2.06%. While premium building vacancies were the same as the previous quarter, vacancies for Grade A buildings rose from 5.78% to 6.12%, and Grade B building vacancies dropped to 1.13%. On the other hand, vacancies in Fort Bonifacio offices increased from 3.5% to 6.7% due to the seven buildings that were completed during the fourth quarter, with Grade A vacancies doubling from 3.95% to 8.10%. In Ortigas Center, strong demand for space continued to drive vacancies lower, with the rate falling from 2.36% in the third quarter to 1.91% in the fourth quarter. With more than 700,000 sq m of new office space scheduled to be completed in 2016, Colliers foresees an increase in office vacancies across Metro Manila, should all projects be completed as planned. While the demand coming from the BPO sector is seen to keep growing at double digit rates, this unprecedented level of new supply will exceed forecasted demand, and it may take time to absorb the excess capacity. Office rental rate growth slows in the 4th quarter Metro Manila office rental rate growth softened during the fourth quarter, growing by around 1.46% on average for all major districts. This translates to an annualized growth of 7.0% overall, with Makati premium office buildings rising the highest with a 10.4% increase for the year and ending with a per sq m rental rate of PHP1,070. Makati Grade A buildings now average at PHP913 per sq m; Grade B buildings growing the fastest at 3.6% during the quarter amid low vacancies in the premiere CBD. Fort Bonifacio Grade A grew slightly by 0.54% to average at PHP884 per sq m; Ortigas Center Grade A buildings also had a modest increase of 0.61% on average during the fourth quarter to end the year at PHP660 per sq m. Moving forward, rental growth is expected to taper off due to the completion of unprecedented levels of new office supply. Makati Office Rents Location - :: -2015-Q3- : -2015-Q4- : Midpt. / 2016-Q4F: Midpt: (Prev.) +/- Pct: (previous) ======= Premium- : : 1100-1400 : 1120-1420: 1270 / 1110-1410 : 1260 (0000) / - 0.79% Grade-A- : : 0717-1093 : 0720-1100: 0910 / 0715-1100 : 0908 (0000) / - 0.22% Grade-B- : : 0574-0810 : 0595-0840: 0718 / 0590-0815 : 0703 (0000) / - 2.09% Residential: 0595-1155 : 0600-1166 : 0883 / 0582-1130 : 0856 (0846) / - 3.06% (-3.39%) BGC. Res. : 0681-1083 : 0688-1094: 0891 / 0669-1063 : 0866 (0853) / - 2.81% (-3.25%) ========= Makati CBD Capital Values Location- : - 2015 -Q3- : - 2015 -Q4- : Midpt. / 2016 -Q4F: Midpt: (Prev.) +/- Pct: (previous) P in 000's Premium :: 150.0-173.0: 154.3-179.2: 166.8 / 162.8-189.0: 175.9 (0000) / + 5.46% Grade-A :: 087.0-122.0: 089.7-128.0: 108.9 / 094.6-135.1: 114.8 (0000) / + 5.46% Grade-B :: 063.0-091.0: 065.6-095.7: 080.7 / 069.2-100.7: 085.0 (0000) / + 5.27% Resident.: 106.0-196.0: 106.0-196.0: 151.0 / 105.0-193.0: 149.0 (0000) / - 1.32% ======= Philippines Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2015 | Colliers International > http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/phil_knowledge_4q2015.pdf

Recent Tour GoPRO Ayala Malls Circuit Lane Now Open Circuit Makati Walking Tour Overview by HourPhilippines.com I was there last weekend, and it was busier than that. It wasn;t easy to find a place to sit at Coffee Bean, for instance

Maybe. But how to play it? I was too slow to get the USO , or the MUR calls. Maybe we will get another dip

Gold's 20 year chart suggests an important breakout may have occurred this week Long Term 20 Year charts for Commodities ========= Gold....... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?gc.m Silver..... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?si.m Platinum. : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?pl.m Copper... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?hg.m Crude Oil : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?cl.m Unleaded : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?hu.m NatGas... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?ng.m

Gold's 20 year chart suggests an important breakout may have occurred this week Long Term 20 Year charts for Commodities ========= Gold....... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?gc.m Silver..... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?si.m Platinum. : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?pl.m Copper... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?hg.m Crude Oil : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?cl.m Unleaded : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?hu.m NatGas... : http://www.cstcharts...chartge.pl?ng.m

MUR looks like it may be at or near key very long term support : $12-15 ... update Earnings were negative, but better than expected Analyzing Murphy Oil’s 4Q15 Earnings Performance By Nicholas Chapman • Jan 29, 2016 12:16 am EST Murphy Oil’s 4Q15 earnings beat estimates Murphy Oil (MUR) announced its 4Q15 earnings on January 27, 2016. MUR reported an adjusted loss of $0.76 per share, $0.55 better than the Wall Street analyst consensus for a loss of $1.31 per share. MUR’s 4Q15 earnings are lower by $1.15 per share when compared with its 4Q14 profit of $0.39 per share. Even when compared sequentially with 3Q15, MUR’s 4Q15 earnings are lower by $0.04 per share. Enlarge Graph MUR’s 4Q15 revenue beat estimates For 4Q15, Murphy Oil’s (MUR) reported adjusted revenues of ~$658 million, ~7% better than Wall Street analyst consensus for revenues of ~$614 million. The company’s 4Q15 revenues are lower by ~53% when compared with 4Q14 revenues of ~$1,407 million. Even when compared sequentially with 3Q15, MUR’s 4Q15 revenues are lower by ~8%. Murphy Oil’s earnings trend As seen in the above chart, Murphy Oil reported negative earnings in 2015 due to lower realized crude oil and natural gas prices. Since 1Q13, MUR has exceeded its earnings expectations ~66% of the time. Due to the steep downward trend in energy prices, almost all S&P 500 (SPY) upstream companies have been hit. Southwestern Energy (SWN), EOG Resources (EOG), and Consol Energy (CNX) are expected to report ~22%, ~49%, and ~20%, respectively, year-over-year declines in their 4Q15 revenues. MUR’s 2015 earnings and revenue beat estimates For 2015, Murphy Oil (MUR) reported an adjusted loss of $3.08 per share, $0.48 better than Wall Street analyst consensus for a loss of $3.56 per share. MUR’s 2015 earnings are lower by $6.45 per share, when compared with a 2014 profit of $3.37 per share. For 2015, MUR reported adjusted revenues of ~$3 billion, ~3% better than Wall Street analyst consensus for revenues of ~$2.9 billion. MUR’s 2015 revenues are lower by ~33% when compared with 2014 revenues of ~$5.3 billion. == > More: http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/analyzing-murphy-oils-4q15-earnings-performance/ Update: Co.- : $Last : chg. : PEGr : Bk.Val : P/BkV: MkValue: $Cash : $Debt : Ebitda : OperCF: 6oc-D+C: MV/?: trP/E : fw.Yld : 8/10/15 MUR: $33.81 +1.51 : -2.10 : $46.10 : 70.0%: $6.02bn : $1.37b : $2.61b : $2.79b : $2.91b : $15.5bn : 100% : 8.23 : 4.20% : 2/11/16 MUR: $15.97 - 0.44 : +0.34: $30.94 : 53.0%: $2.75bn : $457m : $3.06b : $1.35b : $1.36b : $5.56bn : 49.5%: N/A : 5.10% :

Here's an oil share (MUR / Murphy Oil) that mostly correlates well with WTI Crude prices Ratio: MUR -to-WTI Crude It has not shown the same Loss of value (relative to WTIC Crude), that USO has shown in 2016 The ratio dropped from 0.4027 early in 2015 to 0.2608 recently - that's a fall of - 35.2% in about 12 months That happens, because of the Contango, that presently looks like this: Mon : WTI Cr. : Chg.- : percent: Bbls/$1k : -Chg.- : Feb'16 28.45 : Spot . : Mar - : 29.44 : $ 0.00 : + 0.00 % : 33.97B : - 0.00 % : Apr - : 31.24 : $ 1.80 : + 6.11 % : 32.01B : - 5.77 % : May - : 32.52 : $ 3.08 : + 10.5 % : 30.75B : - 9.48 % : Jun - : 33.54 : $ 4.10 : + 13.9 % : 29.82B : - 12.2 % : July - : 34.36 : $ 4.92 : + 16.7 % : 29.10B : - 14.3 % : Aug - : 35.03 : $ 5.59 : + 19.0 % : 28.55B : - 16.0 % : Sep - : 35.74 : $ 6.30 : + 21.4 % : 27.98B : - 17.6 % : Oct - : 36.32 : $ 6.88 : + 23.4 % : 27.53B : - 18.9 % : Nov - : 36.86 : $ 7.38 : + 25.1 % : 27.13B : - 20.1 % : Dec - : 37.41 : $ 7.97 : + 27.1 % : 26.73B : - 21.4 % : Jan'17: 37.91 : $ 8.47 : + 28.8 % : 26.38B : - 22.3 % : Feb. - : 38.34 : $ 8.90 : + 30.2 % : 26.08B : - 23.2 % : Mar. - : 38.80 : $ 9.36 : + 31.8 % : 25.77B : - 24.1 % : ===== When USO rolls contracts in a contango market, it sells the cheaper nearby oil, and buys the more expensive, further-out oil Thus, every roll in a contango market reduces the number of barrels that back every share of USO. If prices stayed the same, and we move from March 2016 to March 2017, the barrel backing for USO would fall by -24.1%. That's less than the price of USO fell over the last year. If you buy oil forward one year, there's no way around suffering that loss. But if you buy MUR shares, then you need not suffer that discount. So you can use that discount to buy call options on Murphy Oil, and you are better off hedging oil price risk by purchasing Calls on MUR, rather than buying WTI futures. This will work so long as the Ratio of MUR -to-WTI remains stable. And you will have a possible windfall if MUR rises faster than Oil prices. For instance, at the end of 2014, there was a huge surge in MUR-to-WTI, as Oil prices fell faster than MUR did. MUR ($15.97) versus USO, OILB ... 3-years : 5-yr : 10-yr : xx MUR Call options - at $15.97 Strike - : --- Mar.16--- : --- Apr.16 --- : --- July 16 -- : --- Oct.16-- : 8mo. Premium $12.50 : $3.30-$4.30 : $3.60-$4.60 : $3.80-$5.20 : $4.20-$5.50 : mid/bke: $3.80-16.30 : $4.10-16.60 : $4.50-17.00 : $4.85-17.35 : $1.36 : + 8.51 % / 1.06%/mo $15.00 : $1.75-$2.35 : $2.30-$2.75 : $2.65-$3.60 : $3.20-$4.00 : mid/bke: $2.05-17.05 : $2.53-17.53 : $3.13-18.13 : $3.60-18.60 : $2.63 : + 16.5 % / 2.06%/mo