drbubb

The Chinese haven't lost their buying appetite... apparently Starwood bidding war heats up as China's Anbang raises bid Mar 28 10:54am: Boom. A serial dealmaker in China just fired another salvo in the bidding war over Starwood Hotels. More

Updated May'23: O vs IYR : 4.98% Yield at 61.39, vs. 2.96% Yield at 83.47 - O, TLT fr. May'22: '20: '15: TLT shows 2.49% at 105.70, while TYX= 3.73% '15: === PHM OverValued at $67? But PE is only 6x PHM- etc ... 10yr chart: since 2013: Apr.21: $67.13, PER: 5.79, Yield: 0.95% 10yr chart: since 2013: Other charts: HGX / PHLX Housing Index ... All Data : 3-yrs : 12mos / 10d http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj235/jimolsen2/AG/HGX-all_zpsgjbktnlq.gif PHM / Pulte Group Ltd ... All Data : 3-yrs : 12mos / 10d http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj235/jimolsen2/AG/PHM-All_zpsz6z5xheg.gif

The U.S. commercial property market is stalling... Commercial property includes warehouses, shopping centers, and office buildings. For the past six years, the market has boomed. Commercial property prices have nearly doubled since 2010, according to Real Capital Analytics. They’re now 17% above their 2007 highs. This boom has made many developers, brokers, and mortgage lenders very rich. Investors in real estate investments trusts (REITs), publicly traded companies that often own commercial property, have also made huge returns. The Vanguard REIT Index, which tracks 153 major REITs, has surged 411% since March 2009. That’s more than double the S&P 500’s 201% gain over the same period. Of course, all bull markets come to an end. And it looks like the commercial property market may have just peaked. IYR / iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF ... All-Data : • U.S. commercial property sales plummeted last month... February sales were down 47% from last year, as The Wall Street Journal recently reported. Just $25.1 billion worth of office buildings, stores, apartment complexes and other commercial property changed hands last month, compared with $47.3 billion in the same month a year earlier, according to deal tracker Real Capital Analytics Inc. In January, sales were $46.2 billion. Commercial property prices have also fallen for two straight months. That hasn’t happened in over six years. • In December, we warned that the commercial property market was softening... We pointed out a huge drop in transaction volumes. We also told readers Sam Zell was cashing out. Zell has made billions investing in real estate. He was one of the few real estate moguls to spot the last property bubble and get out before it popped. In February 2007, Zell sold $23 billion worth of office properties. Nine months later, the market peaked. U.S. commercial property prices went on to fall 42%. Now Zell is selling again. In October, Zell’s company sold 23,000 apartment units, about a quarter of its portfolio. Management plans to sell 4,700 more units this year. At this point, it looks like Zell “top ticked” the market again. Commercial property prices hit a record high in November before falling in December and January. • Cheap credit has juiced the commercial property market... The value of commercial property loans hit an all-time high of $1.76 trillion last year. Debt is a key part of the commercial property market. Most investors take out a mortgage when they buy an office building or shopping center. When debt is cheap, they borrow more money. And it’s never been cheaper to borrow money. Dispatch readers know the Federal Reserve has held its key interest rate near zero since 2008. The Fed has suppressed rates to encourage borrowing and spending. This makes it cheaper to take out a mortgage or car loan, or to borrow with a credit card. • Now lenders are suddenly issuing fewer real estate loans... The Wall Street Journal explains: [L]oans are becoming harder to secure even for safe investments such as well-leased buildings. That is because broader market volatility has caused lenders who sell off their loans via bonds known as commercial mortgage-backed securities to grow wary. While the segment made about $100 billion in loans last year, it has come to a virtual halt today, lending executives said. If that continues, it will become more difficult for landlords who took out 10-year loans in 2006 to refinance today. In addition to making fewer loans, lenders are lending out less cash on each loan they make. For the past several years, lenders would loan up to 75% of a property’s value. Now most lenders will only loan up to 65% or 70%, according to The Wall Street Journal. • The commercial property market could collapse without access to cheap money... Property prices could quickly plummet. (Casey Research - by email)

The discount in silver allows you to buy Silver calls - rather than Silver or Gold, You probably get a similar (or better) upside as Gold, without the same downside

Peak in GSR : we might have seen it already

No Major Crude Recovery for 1-2 Years? Eric Hadik - March 16, 2016 "A Major multi-year low" with another low at a higher level later this year "Some time is needed to trace out a bottom"

Will the "Renaissance" speed up Philly's slow growth rate? Philly fell to the 7th largest city, from 6th in 2015 Atlanta passed Philly: http://www.philly.com/philly/infographics/373310991.html Numbers show Philadelphia is still growing. But its drop in rank isn't arbitrary: It is symptomatic of a region that continues to struggle with high taxes, a city school system in chaos, and industries that aren't hiring at the rates they did in the region's heydays. Economies elsewhere "are growing more quickly than ours," said David Elesh, an urban sociology professor at Temple University. "Between that and their climate in some cases, they can attract the residents and the retirees." Nevertheless, in 2015 metro Philadelphia grew for a ninth consecutive year - even if, compared with sunnier regions exploding with growth, Philadelphia is merely inching along. In total, the population of the metro area - which includes parts of New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland - grew by nearly 105,000 residents between 2010 and 2015, bringing it to just above six million. Yet that growth yielded only a 1.6 percent population increase for the metro area. Nationally, the population grew 3.9 percent between 2010 and 2015. "We're encouraged by the continued growth, but we know there is still much work to be done to increase our competitiveness with other metro areas," said Lauren Hitt, spokeswoman for Mayor Kenney. While a drop from the sixth most populous region in 2014 to seventh in 2015 may seem incremental, experts say there's cause for concern: The region's growth was largely fueled by births offsetting others' departures. Although residents have moved out, nearly 50,000 immigrants came to the city of Philadelphia in the same time period - and their numbers, experts said, are what counterbalance other losses, as in other Eastern cities. "What's keeping us from declining, for the most part, is immigration from abroad," said James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. . Thursday's rankings come as the city of Philadelphia has been experiencing something of a renaissance, becoming what locals, developers, and officials have dubbed as a trendy destination for millennials. The experts say they see evidence of a cultural revitalization in Philadelphia. Neighborhoods that were once depressed have undergone gentrification, attracting new housing and new residents. Erstwhile working-class neighborhoods in Fishtown and South Philadelphia have sprouted wine bars and coffee shops, yoga studios and trendy restaurants. Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20160324_Slow-growing_metro_Phila__falls_to_No__7_nationally.html#5bWAotRQ76f3cEUc.99

REHABBING in Point Breeze - what can be done in a gentrifying neighborhood Purchased for $40k in 2015, it was recently offered at just under $240k > More photos : http://philly.curbed.com/2016/3/24/11298984/big-reveal-239k-for-a-restored-point-breeze-home

Land Price: Examples at Q4-2015 : P 500k average for Makati Area-- : Peso Range psm : Q3 Ave. / Peso Range psm: Q4-Ave : change : Fore-YoY Makati : 340,000-580,000 : 460,000 / 363,000- 637,000 : 500,000 : + 8.69 %/ + 5.09% B.G.C. : 281,000-519,000 : 368,500 / 292,000- 542,000 : 417,000 : +13.16%/ + 4.09% Ortigas: 130,000-215,000 : 172,500 / 141,000- 233,000 : 187,000 : + 8.41 %/ + 4.26% ... Per Colliers: Q4-2015. Makati Land for Sale - Examples from Lamudi : Such a WIDE RANGE of Land Prices!! > http://www.lamudi.com.ph/makati/land/buy/?keyword=%2Bsale%20%2Blots%20%2Bmakati&gclid=CJP637Ki3csCFYSjvQodyDcHkQ : PRICE------- / Size----- Per SM + 3.432 billion/2288sm= 1.50mn psm : Com'l Lot, Ayala Avenue + 600.0 million/4000sm= 150.0k psm : Vacant Land + 540.5 million/2162sm= 250.0k psm : Buendia Com'l Corner Lot, Sen. Gil Puyat Ave., Makati + 370.0 million/ 960 sm= 385.4k psm : Vacant Lot, Bel-Air Edsa com'l lot + 240.0 million/1165sm= 206.0k psm : Vacant Lot, Urdaneta Village Makati + P80.0 million/ 560sm = 142.9k psm : Vacant Lot, Bel-Air, Makati + P37.0 million/ 410sm = 90.24k psm : San Antonio Village, Makati + P36.0 million/ 199sm = 180.9k psm : Lot 13, Block 21J, Victor St. Pio del Pilar (residential lot) + P24.0 million/ 402sm = 59.70k psm : Lot, Florida St, Palanan, Makati (resi./coml) + P19.0 million/ 271sm = 70.11k psm : Vacant Lot, Poblacion, Makati + P 3,500,000/ 107 sm = 32.71k psm : Vacant Lot: Sweet Orange, off-Maya, Rizal, Makati + P 3,000,000 / 72. sm = 41.67k psm : 185-C, 27th Ave, East Rembo, Makati Compare : Colliers Q4= 500k psm : At Q4-2015, Philippines Report

PH external debt rises to $77.5 billion as of end-2015 Despite the increase, key external debt indicators remain at comfortable levels at the close of the year, says the BSP Rappler.com, March 21, 2016 MANILA, Philippines – The country's external debt increased by $1.9 billion or 2.5% in the 4th quarter of 2015, attributed to net borrowing of $1.8 billion mainly by private banks and firms to finance projects. The outstanding Philippine external debt stood at $77.5 billion as of end-2015, up from the end-September 2015 level of $75.6 billion, said Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Amando Tetangco Jr in a statement on Monday, March 21. External debt refers to all types of borrowings by Philippine residents from non-residents, following the residency criterion for international statistics. Despite the increase, the BSP pointed out that on a year-on-year basis, the debt stock declined by $200 million from the $77.7 billion figure for 2014. This was due to increased investments in Philippine debt papers of $1.8 billion by residents, the majority of which came from banks. Another factor was the $456 million negative foreign exchange revaluation adjustments due to the strengthening of the US dollar in 2015. This was on the view of US economic recovery expectations following a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike, the BSP said. "A stronger dollar results in a lower debt figure expressed in US dollar terms," Tetangco explained. The BSP noted, however, that the full downward impact on debt stock of these factors was partly negated by around $2 billion, because of net availments (excess of drawings over debt payments) and the previous periods' audit adjustments. External debt at comfortable levels Tetangco also said "key external debt indicators remained at comfortable levels at the close of the year." Gross international reserves stood at $80.7 billion as of end-2015 and represented cover of 5.3 times for short-term debt under the original maturity concept. The external debt ratio improved from 22.5% in 2014 to 21.9% by year-end as a result of the country's sustained economic growth. The ratio is a key solvency indicator which looks at total outstanding debt expressed as a percentage the country's gross national income (GNI) or total annual aggregate output. The debt service ratio (DSR) improved to 5.3% in December 2015 from 5.6% in September 2015 and 6.3% in December 2014 due to a larger decline in payments vis-à-vis receipts. == > http://www.rappler.com/business/economy-watch/126637-philippines-external-debt-2015 OFW remittances rise to $2.2B in January 2016 Despite concerns in the Middle East, remittances remain resilient on the back of sustained demand, says the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas MANILA, Philippines – Money sent home by Filipinos overseas increased at the start of the year despite global volatility and slowing economies in the Middle East. Personal remittances by overseas Filipinos grew by 3.2% year-on-year in January 2016 to reach $2.2 billion, said Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Amando Tetangco Jr in a statement on Tuesday, March 15. These remittance flows consisted primarily of transfers from land-based overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) with work contracts of one year or more, amounting to $1.7 billion, as well as compensation of sea-based workers and land-based workers with short-term contracts (excluding their expenditures abroad), which reached $500 million. Similarly, cash remittances channeled through banks amounted to $2 billion in January 2016, rising by 3.4% from the level posted a year ago. Cash remittances from both land-based ($1.6 billion) and sea-based ($447 million) workers expanded by 3% and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively. More than three-fourths of cash remittances came from the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Canada, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Qatar, and Japan. == > http://www.rappler.com/business/economy-watch/125934-ofw-remittances-january-2016

Makati Prime Map Makati Map : MRT/ LRT/ PNR stations : Transport Map : LRTxMRT > Using Google Maps: http://blog.eacomm.com/archives/583/metro-manila-train-schedules-now-available-in-google-maps

CANADA - The Up-phase has lasted more than 14 years, something like 18-years+ Toronto Vancouver x > Canadian Property thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16480

The Property Voice Podcast - Series 2: The 18-Year Property Cycle interview with Akhil Patel Published on Oct 28, 2015 The Property Voice Podcast - Series 2: The 18-Year Property Cycle interview with Akhil Patel Property cycles are like clockwork according to some! Here we invite Akhil Patel, our subject matter expert, to share with us his own research and that of others before him that makes a very compelling argument for a clear and definite pattern in the property market. Not only this, but we sow the seeds of what the heck to do about it once we know about it. Back into our series rhythm now, so we also have Your Voice & the Shout Out back in full swing once again.

An Even-Longer Cycle from Martin Armstrong: 78 years . How is this man correctly predicting where property prices are going? Does this show up in other markets... - Australia? > source: http://www.ipac.com.au/australian-house-prices-a-bit-too-hot-in-parts

Existing home sales are robust. They are also the fastest they have been at any time since the recession ended. . . Consumers do not buy houses and cars unless they believe that the economy is on solid ground and that they will have a job six months from now. The stock market got hit early in the year about the possibility of slower-than-expected growth in China, but is recovering nicely. In addition, net worth is at a record high level and climbing. Home sales are robust. Consumers have paid down tons of debt and are now in a position to spend. Jobs are climbing at a pace of 200 thousand per month. The unemployment rate has fallen to a level that is almost certainly at the full employment mark. Consumers are benefiting from lower gasoline prices. For all of these reasons we look for 2.4% GDP growth in 2016. Stephen Slifer > http://www.numbernomics.com/nomicsnotes/?cat=6&paged=4

It Starts: San Francisco Office Boom Deflates, but Fitch Says It’s “Unlikely to Collapse” this Time . by Wolf Richter • March 22, 2016 Other tech-heavy office markets too. For some time, we’ve heard through the rumor mill that commercial real estate brokers in San Francisco are getting nervous. Then Savillis Studley released its report on the San Francisco office market for the fourth quarter. A very mixed bag for the first time since 2009. And now even Fitch Ratings is getting antsy. . . . A prominent sublet space to hit the market is an entire floor at Twitter’s headquarters. Twitter has been laying off, and it won’t need this space. This comes after Twitter abandoned plans to lease an additional 100,000 square feet at the nearby headquarters of Square, the other company where Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey is the CEO. Those 100,000 sf then came on the market as well. Yet, according to Savillis Studley, overall asking rent in Q4 “spiked” 14.1% year-over-year to $63.87 per square foot. Class A asking rent “jumped” 11.7% to $65.94 per square foot. . As new office space came on the market, absorption has been negative for two quarters in a row, reaching -500,000 sf during Q4. With supply and vacancies up, even as prices soared, something had to give: demand collapsed. Tenants leased 5.9 million square feet in 2015, down 35.7% year-over-year. San Francisco cloud-storage startup Dropbox is emblematic of what is going on in tech-based local economies, including commercial real estate (CRE), which has been in a phenomenal boom in terms of lease rates and construction, powered by a global money tsunami. Dropbox does what Google, Apple, Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, and other companies with cloud-storage services are doing. So this is going to be tough. Nevertheless, it has a “valuation” of $10 billion, as of its last round of funding in January 2014. It’s one of the deca-unicorns. Or perhaps, “was” because, to let some folks cash out, it has authorized the sale of common stock on the “secondary market” at a 34% discount, BuzzFeed reported. While some discounting is not unusual in these situations, it is a big cut, reminiscent of the “valuations” cuts of other startups since last summer. Not a propitious sign. . . . With space seemingly in short supply and lease rates soaring, panicked companies awash with money, even startups with no revenues, have hoarded office space to grow into, thus injecting steroids into the office boom. If they don’t need it, they can always put it on the market and sublease it. That’s the logic. But if push comes to shove, they will all put it on the market at the same time, just when practically no one needs more space. There is an additional problem with startups: when the moolah dries up, many will burn through their cash before they figure out how to get a positive cash flow and sustain themselves. When these companies reach the end of their road, landlords end up with empty office space, and that too is going to hit the market. These forces happen simultaneously. The office market turns into a glut. It puts enormous downward pressure on lease rates – and everything that comes along with them. Real estate is highly leveraged. When it gets ugly, a chain reaction mauls banks, creditors, and investors of REITs or commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS). That’s what Fitch is warning about.

Gold down big as we head into late March / April : - $26 today ! Must be the season of the Dip! Donovan - Season Of The Witch (1966) Right on schedule! I will put a buy order in somewhere below $1200 In edit: I bought again in late May, with GLD near $115

+ LAND and Capital Values in the Makati CBD had been rising quarter-by-quarter (With Land prices pushing above P 500,000 psm in early-2016, even as Capital Values slow) UNTIL 2016! There was a trend change in Rents and Values as the market entered 2016.PRICES, yields : Makati from Q1-12, Bonifacio from Q3-1 2Q /17 : 541 K : Qtr /Yr. : LAND : CapVal: Yield%: MRents: QonQtr: YonYr / Bgc-CpV 1Q /12 : 284.1k : 114.1k : 2Q /12 : 284.6k : 115.4k : 3Q /12 : 289.1k : 116.0k : 7.32% : 0,708 : +0.EE%: +5.0E% / 116.3k 4Q /12 : 291.8k : 118.0k : 7.32% : 0,720 : +1.69% : +7.0E% / 118.7k: 1Q /13 : 298.1k : 123.8k : 7.12% : 0,735 : +2.08% : +8.0E% / 121.5k 2Q /13 : 304.2k : 128.7k : 7.27% : 0,780 : +6.12% : +11 E% / 127.6k 3Q /13 : 322.4k : 132.0k : 7.27% : 0,800 : +2.56% : +13.0% / 130.0k 4Q /13 : 341.5k : 134.9k : 7.16% : 0,805 : +0.63% : +11.8% / 131.8k 1Q /14 : 353.8k : 136.5k : 7.12% : 0,810 : +0.62% : +10.2% / 133.2k 2Q /14 : 366.4k : 138.1k : 7.13% : 0,820 : +1.23% : +5.13% / 134.9k 3Q /14 : 435.0k : 142.8k : 6.97% : 0,830 : +1.22% : +3.75% / 139.0k 4Q /14 : 440.0k : 144.5k : 6.96% : 0,838 : +0.96% : +4.10% / 145.0k 1Q /15 : 443.8k : 147.4k : 6.90% : 0,848 : +1.19% : +4.69% / 146.3k 2Q /15 : 452.5k : 149.0k : 6.94% : 0,862 : +1.65% : +5.12% / 148.0k 3Q /15 : 460.0k : 151.0k : 6.95% : 0,875 : +1.51% : +5.42% / 149.5k 4Q /15 : 500.0k : 151.0k : 7.02% : 0,883 : +0.91% : +5.37% / 150.1k 1Q /16 : 523.0k : 152.0k : 6.86% : 0,869 : - 1.59% : +2.48% / 150.0k 3Q /16 : ???? k : 146.5k : 6.87% : 0,840 : - 1.75% : - 4.00% / 143.7k 2Q /17 : 541 K : 2Q /17 : 541 K : Qtr /Yr. : LAND : CapVal: Yield%: MRents: QonQtr: YronYr / Bgc-CpV F'cast 4Q /16: ???? k : ???? k : ??? % : 0,856 :>+1.90% : -3.06%: 1Q /17: 559.5k : 159.6k : 6.28% : 0,835 :> -2.45% : -3.91%: 2Q /17: 620.5k : 142.0k : 6.85% : 0,810 :> -2.00% : -5.59% 3Q /17: ???? k : 138.8k : 6.87% : 0,795 :> -1.85% : -5.36% === Key : LAND - : Average Land prices in Makati's CBD CapVal.: Mean Capital values for Makati 3 BR Condo, P per SM Yield % : Calculated Gross yield MRents : Mean rentals for Makati 3 BR Condo, P per SM / mo. QonQtr : Quarter on quarter rise or fall YonYr. : Year on year rise or fall Bgc-CpV : Mean Capital values for 3BR, Bonifacio G.C., P /SM F' cast : Forecast levels, 4 quarters ahead > Makati Land for sale : Lamudi : Prop24 : See the Data - in the LAND column below - Land prices have almost doubled in 4 years! (That rate of growth is unsustainable over the long term) More DATA : Capital Values : Rental Prices :

LATEST Prices : to Q3-2016 / see DATA used to create the following chart ... PB : Our Original Prediction, from the inception of the Makati Prime website was for a cyclical peak in 2016: PB : 2 : > See the underlying DATA, on this thread: Philippines Peso / Makati Property etc > other links : hsbchk / hsrate : gold : gld / But don't lose Long Term confidence in Makati: Makati's Competitive advantages (per a Megaworld advertorial) : PB : Lamudi on Makati EXCERPTs: + Land values in the Makati CBD has risen by 2.43 percent, hitting an average Php463,700 per sqm (to Q3-2015) + Worsening traffic conditions, which if taken in a different context also means that business is booming and commercial growth is far from dying down, have also contributed to more Makati-based employees looking to live closer to their work. This has kept rental rates in the city stable / to rising despite heavy completions. Costs Remain Competitive While the city of Makati is unquestionably the costliest city to be based in, it is still comparatively more affordable than the other major cities in Southeast Asia, making it a preferred choice for foreign-based investors. From a residential standpoint, rental rates may have risen to 1.5 percent for the third quarter of 2015, but this rise is welcomed by analysts as it is dispels the rumor of an impending real estate bubble. And as mentioned, Makati is still more affordable when compared to others in Southeast Asia, with stamp duties to be paid in a places like Singapore good enough for the purchase of a condo (in Makati) All true. But my main concerns for residential rents and values are: + The huge rise in completions that Colliers expects in 2016 (4,148 units) versus 2015 (now estimated at just 1,000, rather than the 4,608 that had been forecast) - see post #208, in Data thread. + A slowdown in the global economy is expected in 2016-17 and beyond, and that may impact on the high grow expected for the Philippines

Philippines PROPERTY CYCLE: (as edited, see more at end of this thread) On another chat I posted this in JULY 2020: I said: "I think I know where we are (in the 18 YEAR LONG PROPERTY CYCLE), and here you go, a chart that is labeled with the TURN points. Do remember that a bellwether share like ALI might turn 6-12 months ahead of the physical market. And ALI peaked in mid-2019. The physical market peak should have been right around the beginning of 2020: ... Update ALI & CHI data Assuming a peak in the Beginning of 2020, The next major low should be in 3 - 5 years, or the end of 2024 +/- 1 year. How to JOIN the Discussion on threads here - It's Free Join Real Estate Mastermind - MNL on Viber *drop this into your Viber post and click on it. (Note: is NOW INACTIVE ) https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBETuZDfNtEpkmfHTIA0aMbSS7FGRKckW%2F7xaOugsPRTlONmHyxwhUkFQQF1wW8 To join the chats & the community at Makati Prime, ... & the GEI forums Go Read the instructions in post #2 of the GEI Landing page. (However to get past security, you will need to be able to answer a question concerning Dr B's favorite animal. Hint: not an animal - it is THIS GUY, "Admiral Byrd", spell with a "Y", not "I") If you are living in the Greater Manila area, you might also consider joining one of the Meet-up groups, such as : > Meet-Up: Manila Real Estate Investors : Meet-ups have attracted as many as 22 people - there are over 50 people on the Viber chat. Membership to the Makati Prime forums on GEI is free, and once you have joined, you can post on the Forums here. The Meet-up Groups are also Free to attend. Sometimes there are limits on numbers, so book early. You may want to make your first post here on our special Forum (to introduce yourself, & talk freely): + PRIVATE CHAT for Makati : Introduce yourself, & Free-form discussion * ( Chat thread was moved to a private area, public / non-members cannot see it / * )

MAKATI has come a long way... in only a few decades / Note: go to Next Panel to see Chart of PHL Property cycle - most likely in Downturn from end-2019 to end-2024? / Some History of Makati, & Ayala Premier's Park Terraces project The Citygate Area (above) is now undergoing a New phase of rapid development. After the 2nd World War, the runways of what was then the Nielson International Airport became Ayala Avenue and Paseo De Roxas. Around these strips, foreign and local investors started planting their roots, eventually transforming Makati into the vibrant, booming city that we know today. It has been a wonderous Journey.... and it is not over ... checkout what is coming at Citygate: Kroma, AFT, Rise, Air, etc (Here's a short video about the basics of buying property in the Philippines 😞 VIDEO : from the Global REO channel Makati-1: ALVEO's Ramon King: Basics for Foreign Buyers See also : What are the Three main drivers of Property Prices?

: MAKATI PRIME.Com : ... : > Go to Index DATA: cGate: Rise: TechZone: ChRoces: Rent: Office: Circuit: Arca: rail: chi'tn: Bubl : Ads : ssc Other: SSC / AX ph1 ph2 / meet-up / +Charts & Data : WHAT'S NEW here? / NEW > Cash Flow & importance of Positive "Yield Pick-up" : Conversation with Property Agents : Does PH need a more vibrant secondary market? what is being done to create it : New 2nd Market? CHAT with others about the possible slow bursting of the Property Bubble in Manila / Bubble thread, (To become a member and Join the discussion here, scroll down to post #3, below) ========================================== Why Makati's CBD area remains Prime / Seek 2nd-hand Bargains? “It's the address if you want to establish yourself in the Philippines” ... Many upscale, vertical residences available just a short walk from the headquarters of so many prime companies. ... Currently, foreign investors can only own 40% of a building’s total number of units. But that may change... ... Developers have pushed up prices fast, & best bargains are now in the Secondary Market: #1, #2, Rise. Decoding the abbreviations at the top of this post, leading to the most popular threads. Summary GUIDE to the principal Threads in the MAKATI Prime section of the larger GEI Forum *This is the Landing page - and the jumping-off point to many other MP threads LINKS to Some Key threads : ALL are in GEI's Makati Property sub-forum : how to JOIN HERE, see post #3, scroll down CityGate : photos & comments on Citygate, Kroma, & nearby projects TheRise : photos & comments, and marketplace for Buying & Selling Rise flats DATA --- : Ph Peso / Property in Makati, BGC, etc (MPr's Top thread: 74,000+ views) Tips ----- : Makati Tips: Choosing a Condo to Rent (or to Buy) Renting : RENTING in Makati and BGC : Short Term and Longer Offices - : Makati : Investing in, or renting Office space (AFT, etc.) ArcaSouth : Manila area - Arca South (new CBD near the airport) Boni-Shaw : Mandaluyong, between Boni & Shaw stations on the MRT GREO-yout : GREO Channel : Global Real Estate Opportunities

Ayala must have its eyes on some new Transport Oriented Development, such as a Tutuban = =

Three Articles (taken together) suggest that ALI may have big plans for the Tutuban area Philippines: Ayala Land sells $172.4m bonds, RHI seeks $26.5m via SRO, Vista Land enters hotel biz . DEALSTREETASIA - ‎21 hours ago‎ In three separate business developments in the Philippines, Ayala Land Inc has sold bonds worth $172.4 million, while Roxas Holdings Inc seeks to raise over $26 million via stock rights offer, and Vista Land & Lifescapes Inc has forayed into the hotel ... . . . As part of Ayala Land’s P50-billion debt securities program, proceeds from the offering will primarily be used to finance the company’s corporate requirements and capital expenditures, including the redevelopment of the site of Intercontinental Hotel in Makati City into a transport hub with retail and office components and other similar projects, The Standard added. 2/ August 14, 2015: Ayala Land Inc (ALI) plans to secure a controlling stake in diversified conglomerate Prime Orion Philippines Inc (POPI) for $121 million (P5.6 billion). ALI earlier informed the stock exchange that it has entered into an agreement with POPI, to subscribe to 2.5 billion common shares of stock in POPI, which translates in to 51.36 per cent stake, for a total consideration of P5.6 billion, subject to certain terms and conditions. POPI has diversified interests in industries such as non-life insurance, real estate and property management, manufacturing, distribution, land title services, including information technology consulting services. POPI owns the retail complex Tutuban Center in Manila through its wholly owned subsidiary Tutuban Properties Inc. It has a gross leasable area of about 60,000 square meters. It also currently holds interests in other local companies such as Lepanto Ceramics Inc, FLT Prime Insurance Corporation, OMI Land Title Services, Orion Property Development Inc, IT company Orion Solutions Inc, and Orion Maxis Inc (which serves as sales and marketing affiliate for the distribution of Lepanto Tiles by Lepanto Ceramics). “This acquisition is aligned with ALI’s thrust of expanding its leasing business,” said ALI senior vice president chief finance officer and compliance officer Jaime Ysmael. 3/ Tutuban Center may become Manila's busiest transfer stationnews.abs-cbn.com/.../tutuban-center-may-become-manilas-busiest-transf... Mar 20, 2015 - MANILA – Prime Orion is pursuing plans to expand leasable space in Tutuban Center as competition gets tighter in Manila's famous shopping ... Yuen Po Seng, president and chief executive of Prime Orion, said around 40,000 square meters (sqm) of leasable space will be added to the complex in the next two to three years. “With new development coming in, we will probably be having another 40,000 sqm leasable area in the next two to three years. This short term vision would maybe even double revenues we have in Tutuban itself...Right now, we have about 60,000 sqm leasable space,” Seng told ANC on Friday. Seng said the expansion will allow the company to take advantage of the growing population in the area, which is the site for the proposed common station of the North-South commuter rail and the Light Rail Transit-Line 2 (LRT-2). . Tutuban gets about 1 million visitors every month, but the new railway line is expected to bring an additional 400,000 people per day. "The DOTC has made some recent announcements that it is establishing the North-South commuter rail. What's exciting is that it will intersect with LRT-2 on Recto. And they are intersecting right where Tutuban is, so right where we are is going to be a major transfer station, the likes of Hong Kong and Japan where you have massive people criss-crossing. The consultants were saying that there could be as much as 400,000 people on a daily basis," Seng said. > New thread on PNR & Tutuban :

LONDON is Peaking, after a long, long rally - says EWave Int'l ===== It shows a rising lower graph, which indicates the declining affordability of London homes, because a greater percentage of income goes to meet mortgage payments. When buyer affordability hit 69.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007, London home prices promptly plummeted 20%. Prices bottomed in the first quarter of 2009, sending mortgage payments back below 50% of take-home pay. But, today, nearly 66% of Londoners' income is going toward mortgage payments, just a few percentage points shy of the 2007 peak. More important, the top graph depicts an extended fifth wave in London home prices, with wave (5) of 5 reaching equality with wave (1) of 5. This is a common wave relationship. As the textbook Elliott Wave Principle observes, fifth-wave extensions "are typically followed by swift retracements," which usually return to the price territory of the "fourth wave of one larger degree." So, by common wave relationships alone, London home prices are set for a 30%-50% decline. Either way, unaffordable homes are once again colliding with euphoric sentiment and complete Elliott wave patterns. The combination should prove to be even more deadly than it did in 2007. Click here to continue reading the rest of the 50-page State of the Global Markets Report--2016 Edition 100% free >>