drbubb

LONDON is Peaking, after a long, long rally - says EWave Int'l ===== It shows a rising lower graph, which indicates the declining affordability of London homes, because a greater percentage of income goes to meet mortgage payments. When buyer affordability hit 69.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007, London home prices promptly plummeted 20%. Prices bottomed in the first quarter of 2009, sending mortgage payments back below 50% of take-home pay. But, today, nearly 66% of Londoners' income is going toward mortgage payments, just a few percentage points shy of the 2007 peak. More important, the top graph depicts an extended fifth wave in London home prices, with wave (5) of 5 reaching equality with wave (1) of 5. This is a common wave relationship. As the textbook Elliott Wave Principle observes, fifth-wave extensions "are typically followed by swift retracements," which usually return to the price territory of the "fourth wave of one larger degree." So, by common wave relationships alone, London home prices are set for a 30%-50% decline. Either way, unaffordable homes are once again colliding with euphoric sentiment and complete Elliott wave patterns. The combination should prove to be even more deadly than it did in 2007. Click here to continue reading the rest of the 50-page State of the Global Markets Report--2016 Edition 100% free >> > source: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-1671748/House-prices-What-expect-news-predictions.html

Eton Tower (#15 on the List) : a controversial design that has not lived up to the promise of its original design Original Render (above) is considered more appealing than the final result (below) : Map > SSS comment: #1 I realized this building is ugly compared to its renderings and glassy neighbour, but since its there anyway, would this be a good investment if given the opportunity? The location is kinda irresistible and SOHOs are kinda hard to get in good locations. Of course, the unit itself has to be very very good (i.e. high floor, good orientation with views as oppose to ones facing the tall building next door, etc) for me to take a bite on. SOHO's? : Small Office, Home Office : allow you to merge home and business in one location #2: Any resale?: Hi im interested to buy a resale unit here.; anyone with good offer pls inform tnx ========= Despite, the "ugly" design people like it enough to think about buying. There are now almost 20 units for sale - at prices in the range of 133 - 154k psm Video from 2010 - shows something like the original render Will the prime location (on the DLR walkway) overcome the design concerns? OLX Listings : 17-19 for Sale now Eton Tower Makati a 40-storey prime property developed by Eton Properties of Lucio Tan Group of Companies. it is just a few meters from Ayala Avenue and strategically located at the heart of Makati., bounded at the corner of De La Rosa and V.A. Rufino Street., (formerly Herrera St.) in Legaspi Village., Makati City. Eton Tower Makati is envisioned to be a Vertical Community with a mix of Executive Residences and SOHO (Small Office � Home Office) units, plus a 2-level retail mall at the ground floor that will feature shopping and dining options for residents, tenants and neighboring buildings. Indeed, it gives you a COMPLETE living package in the heart of Makati Brimming with residential and SOHO amenities that include refreshing tower gardens every 3 floors, The first residential condominium to be directly connected to Dela Rosa-Greenbelt elevated walkway,it raises convenience to the next level. On top of its 2-storey dine-&-shop retail complex is an iconic design featuring vertical verdure allowing it to stand out in an already outstanding neighborhood. Price---- / Sq.M : PerSM P 3,100k / 22.05 = 140.6k : 21 mar. ( 5 hrs ago) P 3,100k / 22.05 = 140.6k : 21 mar. ( 5 hrs ago) P 3,028k / 22.00 = 137.6k : 21 mar. ( 8 hrs ago) P 3,100k / 22.00 = 140.9k : 20 mar. ( 1 day ago) P 3,025k / 22.00 = 137.5k : 19 mar. ( 2 days ago) P 3,028k / 22.00 = 137.6k : 19 mar. ( 2 days ago) P 3,025k / 22.00 = 137.5k : 18 mar. ( 3 days ago) P 3,193k / 22.00 = 145.1k : 18 mar. ( 3 days ago) P 3,100k / 22.00 = 140.9k : 16 mar. ( 5 days ago) : "turnover Dec. 2016" P 3,100k / 22.00 = 140.9k : 15 mar. ( 6 days ago) P 2,950k / 22.05 = 133.8k : 15 mar. ( 6 days ago) : 37th Fl/ t/over Aug.16? P 3,021k / 22.66 = 133.3k : 12 mar. ( 1 week ago) : studio + balcony P 3,100k / 22.05 = 140.6k : 09 mar. ( 1 week ago) : Desie, photos P 7.000k / 49.52 = 141.4k : 09 mar. P 7,700k / 50.00 = 154.0k : 09 mar. P 3,350k / 22.00 = 152.3k : 09 mar. ( 1 week ago) : unfurnished studio P 3,100k / 22.00 = 140.9k : 04 mar. ( 2 weeks ago) : + other units? P 3,030k / 22.00 = 137.7k : 01 mar. ( 2 weeks ago) : (in edit - added mid-April 2016): Cheapest studio in Makati for sale. Rush. . . . Reselling my 23.15 sqm studio type unit in residential area at 26th floor for 2,750,000 php. Target Turnover is 2nd quarter of 2016. You may contact Carl at 09173099160

Useful Detail for those thinking of Renting or Buying in Makati = > from the Makati Tips thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20614

Property Prices versus Inflation In many countries, Property prices have way-outpaced price inflation, and the "system is broken" (as one website described it), thanks to ultra-low interest rates Latest Ratios : Timing: PropIdx: Prices: Ratio : (2004 was 1.00 ) Hong Kong---- : '15-q2 : 345.03 : 137.87 : 250.3% Singapore----- : '15-q2 : 175.50 : 130.09 : 134.9% Malaysia------- : '15-q2 : 180.24 : 131.06 : 137.5% Philippines---- : '15-q2 : 217.30 : 159.84 : 135.9% Thailand------- : '15-q2 : 105.43 : 134.50 : 78.39% Indonesia------ : '15-q2 : 138.51 : 164.89 : 84.00% Hong Kong: Singapore Malaysia Philippines "Hong Kong real estate prices have leaped by 234.46% in a little over 10 years to reach a staggering 345.03 as of the second quarter of 2015 from a base of 100 since year-end 2004. General inflation levels have just climbed 37.87% during this same period. In other words, Hong Kong home prices have outpaced inflation by an astounding 207.16% during this period, the highest rate of appreciation in the countries covered in this post." == > source: http://systemisbroken.blogspot.hk/2016/01/singapore-malaysia-and-thailand-post.html - and : http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia > search: criteria

More Filipinos eye homes in near future The Standard-18 Mar 2016 . Many Filipinos are planning to move house or apartment in the near future, and almost 80 percent of them said their main reason for doing so is to buy their first home, according to a recent survey. Global property website Lamudi Philippines recently released a report saying that other reasons for moving house, or apartment cited by the survey’s participants include area preference (either looking for a better area, planning to move to another city, or planning to live close to relatives) (14.66 percent), work-related relocation (2.4 percent), and proximity to schools (1.44 percent). . . . More than half (55.05 percent) of the respondents cited Metro Manila as their preferred area for their property purchase, with Quezon City being the most preferred city (19.47 percent), followed by Makati (8.65 percent) and Manila (8.41 percent). Cebu Province is the next most cited large area after Metro Manila. Almost 7 percent of the respondents said that they are planning to buy a property in Cebu. The province is followed by Cavite at 6.73 percent. Internet savvy The survey also found that Filipino homebuyers are fast becoming internet savvy. Almost 80 percent of the surveyed participants cited the Internet as their starting point when researching about real estate. These survey participants cited real estate websites (such as online listings platforms), social media sites, and search engines as their usual starting point when researching about properties in the Internet. (Yeah. It's Not surprising to find Lamudi polls favoring the internet.)

Property boom in second-biggest Philippine city hits snag Financial Times-8 Mar 2016 Cebu, the second-biggest city in the Philippines, enjoyed a property ... Property prices have risen 5 to 10 per cent a year over the past five years ... 2/ Why investor interest in the Philippines is rising OPP.Today-13 Mar 2016 ... Philippines real estate is rising, new data from the leading property website, ... Leading Manila broker, Phil. Property Expert, Inc, says although prices were lower more than a decade ago – in 2004, the average price per square metre of a prime three-bedroom condo in Makati Central Business District was only about ₱65,000, towards the end of 2015, it’s close to ₱150,000 – now is still a great time to buy. “The Philippines is still underdeveloped for the most part. And as a developing country, there is still a great opportunity for progress, the room for growth is still very wide. Especially with the recently concluded ASEAN integration, which opens up the Philippines into the whole of Southeast Asia for better and less-restricted trade activities. “There’s a good reason why everyone in the industry is very upbeat right now. More opportunities are opening up to the people right here in our country, which means more income for them. This consequently means more buying power and elevated standard of living. And we know that having a roof above our heads is one of our basic needs. Real estate prices are only going to rise in the coming years and decades.” Read more at http://www.opp.today/why-investor-interest-in-the-philippines-is-rising/#hSq0Ei020QKmLAlK.99

Fred Harrison sees a 2019 Peak in UK property prices Fred Harrison: A British recession will happen in 2019 Britain is on course for a recession in 2019, a year before the general election. The crash will not happen before then because politicians and central bankers will appear not to lose their nerves. The QE (quantitative easing) solution to the 2008 crash has rendered monetary policy useless as a fine-tuning instrument. Policymakers failed to adopt fiscal reforms that could have rescued the UK, so politicians have no tools to guide Britain out of the current turbulence. Worldwide, central bankers will talk up any good news, hoping to persuade consumers to spend, even as wages continue to be battered. In the US the Fed will not take any chances in the run-up to November’s presidential election. Oil producers will finally do a deal to drive up petrol prices, which will be sold as a step towards normality. Debts will continue to grow, until a peak in house prices in 2019. Then the game will be up. Fred Harrison is an economics commentator and author of Boom Bust == > http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/29/heading-for-a-crash-global-economic-meltdown-panel-repeat-2008-china-slowdown

In this interview, Jerome Corsi says: + Putin did a deal to get the Oil price back over $40, and if it stays there the global economy may not collapse + The natural price of oil now is probably about $15-20 + If it goes down there, you will have a global collapse of epic proportions + Stocks prices could fall thousands of points over a few trading sessions, or it could be drawn out longer . Establishment Favors Nazi-Style Government to Donald Trump's Patriotism . (Remember, the Globalist call anyone they do not like a "Nazi". And if they fear them, they call them "like Hitler." Only someone the Globalists fear can bring real change.)

(A trip down Memory Lane - from a thread about my new Property Channel on Youtube, Global REO) thread : http://tinyurl.com/GREO-thread === channel : http://tinyurl.com/GlobalREO TIMING / Property Cycles These Videos are about Fred Harrison's description of the 18 Year Cycle These Videos are based on Property prices moves in the United Kingdom. But cycles of the same length have also shown up in the U.S., Hong Kong, and other real estate Markets. > Hong Kong: chart from : thread on the 18-year Property Cycle ( Videos from : BubbFromGEI channel ): Is there a property crash every 18 years? Property Crash Cycle - Introduction to Fred Harrison's 18 Years ( 24 Jul 2008 / 8,801 views) Fred Harrison thinks so. In his book: Boom Bust, House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010, Harrison describes a cycle of 18 years. Part-1: ( 15,591 views) + Property Bust after 14 year Boom- Fred Harrison, part 1 Part-2: ( 6,232 views) + Property Bust after 14 year Boom- Fred Harrison, part 2

This is easy to listen to - ie not loaded with too much detail TPP069 The 18 Year Property Cycle Published on 31 Jul 2014 Original link to the show: http://thepropertyhub.net/tpp069-18-y... (personally, I think the up-phase in the UK property cycle could be disrupted by falls in London which never showed much of a correction after the last peak, and could be hit by a vicious "mid-cycle" correction starting any time - which would be linked to world events - a global financial crash?) The boys revised their old thoughts not long ago TPP121 Is the 18 Year Property Cycle a scam Published on 3 Sep 2015 Find out more at http://thepropertyhub.net/tpp121-is-t...

ECHO Peak in GLD? ($121.18), Peak in GDX: $21.42? ==== Prior Gold highs had an Echo Peak, where prices tried to rally back to the old highs and failed. - see the Red bars in the chart below Is that what we saw yesterday (Thursday 3/17) ? If GLD falls back down, and the 8d MA crosses below the 21d MA, then the Sharp-Down part of the correction may begin, GLD : 120.13 - 0.46 : -0.38% vol 9.64mn / O: 121.16, H: 121.18, L: 120.03 // off high: - 0.85% // 8d: 119.7, 21d: 118.8 GDX : $20.43 - 0.43 : -2.06% vol 103.mn / O: $21.05, H: $21.42, L: $20.37 // off high: - 4.64% // 8d: 19.95, 21d: 19.45 SLV. : $15.16 +0.29 : +1.95% vol 20.6mn / O: $15.11. H: $15.28, L: $15.00 // off high: - 0.89% // 8d: 14.74, 21d: 14.56 GLD (Gold etf) .12mos: 2mos: 10d / GDX-vs-UGLD / 2mos: GDX : SLV / EURusd : 2-mos : US$ 1.113 = Eur 0.898 / previous chart is below - it called the top to perfection /

TRADE-OFFS, for those who work in Manhattan, but want to live somewhere cheaper The Avenue Collection, New Jersey (2 stops from wall street - FD) from $795,000 the Avenue Collection, the recently completed first phase of a project by Lennar Urban, includes 74 condos ranging from $800,000 to $4 million. Sales launched in July and by mid-September, more than 60 percent were sold. Lennar already broke ground on the 103-condo second phase. View on s14.therealdeal.com Preview by Yahoo Some pretty fancy prices in New Jersey - based on the access to Manhattan If you spend Half that ($800k / 2= $400k) in Philly, and get a nice Condo near the Amtrac station You can invest the other half ($400K) at 11%, and generate: $44k per annum, or $ 3,667 per month... or $122 per day The Annual unlimited Amtrac (express ticket) is about $15,000 /12: $1,250 per month Just saying... · Distinctive 1, 2 & 3 bedroom waterfront condominiums on the Hudson River overlooking the spectacular skyline of Manhattan · 8 minutes# NY Waterways Ferry ride to Midtown Manhattan Park and ride at Hoboken (3 minutes from site) direct rail link to Wall Street (2 stops) · Complementary shuttle to the Ferry Terminal provided by the Port Imperial Property Owners Association · NJ Waterfront and its multiple park system are just steps from your door · Lincoln Tunnel, Holland Tunnel and George Washington Bridge are all a short car ride away New Jersey Gold Coast As prices in Manhattan and the outer boroughs climb, Gold Coast towns with strong transit links are increasingly shedding their second-fiddle status. “This side of the river used to be considered more of a niche market,” said David Barry of Hoboken-based Ironstate Development, which has multiple residential projects in the area. “It’s now considered much more a piece of the fabric of greater New York.” Over the course of the next few years, the towns along the Gold Coast — which include Jersey City, Hoboken, Weehawken, West New York and Edgewater — are expected to add just shy of 9,000 new apartments, riding a wave of demand that has been growing since 2010. This month, The Real Deal compiled a list of more than 30 development projects that are either currently being marketed or will come to market in the next two years (see chart). The data came from municipal records, news reports and TRD sources. Of those projects, 24 are in Jersey City. Weehawken, meanwhile, has four, and Hoboken and Edgewater have three each. . . . At the end of last year, the vacancy rate for multi-family rentals in Hudson County, which covers many of the Gold Coast cities, was 4.7 percent, according to the research firm Reis. That was level with 2012, but a 13 percent drop from 2011. Residential rents have been rising, too. In 2013, the average effective rent in Hudson County was $2,650, up 1.7 percent from the previous year, Reis’ data show. By comparison, average rents in Manhattan climbed 2.1 percent for an annual price of $3,875 in 2013, according to appraisal firm Miller Samuel. . . . Tall towers are nothing new to downtown Jersey City... In downtown, which includes the waterfront, one-bedrooms go for an average of $2,500. Journal Square rents average $1,450, according to Jersey City brokerage JCity Realty. > http://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/gold-coast-glut/ Julie S • a year ago I live in Edgewater and work in the city. The buildings on this side, like the ones at Port Imperial are beautiful, have tons of amenities, amazing views of the city, and when you want to be there, you can walk over to the ferries and get to midtown or the financial district in under 10 minutes. I've definitely felt that this area has been sitting as an undiscovered gem. I'm not surprised it's finally getting noticed.

Mantua: Neighborhood Dealing with Gentrification, Promise of Federal Help In January 2014, President Barack Obama revealed the first five locations that will be designated as Promise Zones. The initiative, designed to provide vital investments to dilapidated areas, includes the Mantua neighborhood of Philadelphia. The Promise Zones are not given any federal aid but are offered preferential consideration, or extra points, for federal grants. Obama is currently battling […] . . . Mantua has seen a reduction in crime rates recently, but this, Wright said, may not be a direct result of the Promise Zone. In 2012, President Obama launched the Byrne Criminal Justice Innovation (BCJI) under the much broader Neighborhood Revitalization Initiative. That September, local organization We Are Mantua! and partners were awarded a BCJI Grant of $600,000, to tackle crime and address safety issues in Mantua. According to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Mantua has a population of 12,956, a poverty rate of 43.2 percent and an unemployment rate of 43.2 percent. Its two biggest neighbors are the University of Pennsylvania and Drexel University. > https://philadelphianeighborhoods.com/2015/04/09/mantua-neighborhood-affected-by-gentrification-promise-of-federal-help/

The Crocodiles (on HPC) are crying maybe? 'The Government's buy-to-let tax changes mean I will have to sell - or raise rents' Jaye Cook says that changes to tax rules for landlords means that he may have to raise rents or sell up Tara Evans 15 March 2016 • 2:04pm Further evidence is emerging of the pressures that are building on buy-to-let landlords as a result of the Government’s tax increases. Even a modest rise in interest rates would force losses on property investors in 70pc of locations, new figures show, while more landlords have come forward to say they will sell their properties or raise rents in response to the abolition of tax relief on mortgage interest and the new stamp duty penalty. The research found that today’s average profits for landlords of about £3,400 a year would turn to a loss of more than £300 if mortgage rates rose by 2.5 percentage points by the end of the decade (see below for details of the research). Jaye Cook, 34, who owns five properties in Kent, is so worried about the tax changes that he plans to sell some of his existing portfolio or raise the rents he charges his tenants... == > http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/the-governments-buy-to-let-tax-changes-mean-i-will-have-to-sell/?ref=yfp Buy-to-let The assumptions behind the calculations The landlord is a higher rate tax payer with a 60pc LTV buy to let property loan, fixed at 3pc for three years Average house price data based on Zoopla Average rents based on figures from Home.co.uk Rents are assumed to remain level Research by Property Partner

30th St. Station District Plan Releases Latest Renderings -- un unmarked version of the above New renderings reveal more parks, bridges, and a new-and-improved train station A rendering of the reopened North Concourse, lined with retail - just like a walkable city should have ! 1. Improvements to 30th Street Station will likely happen first. In a effort to increase accessibility to the train station, the plan proposes a number of upgrades: Access on all four sides of the building and reopening the North Concourse to increase platform access to Amtrak by 50 percent. The report says these improvements should be "achievable in the near term." . . . 3. Commuters won't have to go outside to transfer to SEPTA. In the new proposal, commuters transferring to SEPTA from Amtrak will be able to reach the subway or trolley via a new stairway in the Main Hall of 30th St. Station. The concourse will have a massive skylight and retail. And there's more good news. Check the images: > http://philly.curbed.com/2016/3/15/11236398/30th-st-station-district-plan-renderings

Insane Surge in Philadelphia Gentrification - Citified Feb 17, 2015 - Parsing a new study finds Philadelphia gentrification rate to be highest in the nation—by a lot. Gentrification ACCELERATED at a very high rate in Philly Anew quantitative analysis by Governing magazine attempts to measure the recent uptick. The study looked at low income census tracts in the nation’s 50 biggest cities since 1990, and found that, nationwide, the pace of gentrification of low income urban neighborhoods has more than doubled. But here's the real news. Over the same period, the pace of gentrification in Philadelphia’s low income census tracts increased by a staggering factor of 1,800 percent. That’s correct. According to this study, Philly's gentrification rate is 18 times what it was in the 1990s. Just one city tops Philly's rate: San Diego (with a 2,015 percent increase). Now, to be clear, other cities are obviously more gentrified than Philadelphia. A whopping 58 percent of Portland's low income census tracts gentrified between 2000 and 2013, Governing's study found, compared to just 29 percent in Philadelphia (by that metric, Philly ranks 12th nationwide). But apart from San Diego, no city in the nation is seeing gentrification accelerate as much as Philadelphia. Between 1990 and 2000 only four low-income Philly census tracts were deemed to be gentrifying by the Governing study. Since 2000, though, 84 tracts have begun gentrifying. Put another way: between 1990 and 2000, just 1.5 percent of the city's poor neighborhoods were gentrifying. Since 2000, 28.7 percent of those neighborhoods are gentrifying. Do the math: it's an 1,813 percent jump. What explains such an insane number? Mostly the fact that other cities weren’t quite as derelict and stagnant as Philadelphia was prior to 2000. Take Washington, D.C., which finished second to Portland on the most-gentrified-neighborhoods metric. Gentrification there accelerated at only half the rate it did in Philly. Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/citified/2015/02/17/insane-surge-philadelphia-gentrification/#fRJf66WFpXDtQRVg.99 The study found that the rate of gentrification is most intense around Center City and the neighborhoods surrounding University of Pennsylvania and Temple University, City Lab reports. The homes in these areas are valued at $238,049; in weakly gentrifying areas the median home value is $70,316. == > http://philly.curbed.com/2015/11/3/9904636/gentrification-philadelphia-neighborhoods

New Entry for LONG side - probably in April

Well, I listen to him - but make up my own mind. I think if you back at my posts in Dr Bubb's Diary, you will see that that I have called the gold price extremely well. And not only am I calling it well, I am making money with my trades. The problem is when you follow someone slavishly, you won't know what to do when you find yourself on the wrong of a trade - that's bound to happen with Bo or anyone, since no one is perfect

Philly not priced too high relative to SF and other places. Here's the salary you need to afford a home in these 27 cities - CNNMoney To afford a home in Pittsburgh, you'll need to earn around $31,100 a year. In Philadelphia: $51,622 a year But if you want to become a home owner in San Francisco, you'll need a salary of nearly $148,000... === Compare City-------: Salary Req'd: Median Home: Ratio : Monthy Pmt San Francisco : $147,996 : --- $ 781,600 : 5.28 : $ 3,453/mo. (East Coast) Boston---------- : $ 83,151 : --- $ 393,600 : 4.74 : $ 1,940/mo. New York City-- : $ 86,770 : --- $ 384,600 : 4.43 : $ 2,025/mo. Philadelphia----: $ 51,622 : --- $ 213,700 : 4.14 : $ 1,205/mo. Baltimore------- : $ 52,865 : --- $ 233,500 : 4.42 : $ 1,234/mo. Washington---- : $ 78,626 : --- $ 371,600 : 4.73 : $ 1,835/mo. ============ . Target: two houses-- : Zillow Est : Description--: Size Sf : Rented : Gr.Yield House # 1 : $75,000 : $ 93,700 : 3BR, 1.0 bath : 1,360 : $1,050 : 16.8 % House # 2 : $89,000 : $112,725 : 3BR, 1.5 bath : 1,338 : $1,050 : 14.2 % ===== Given the prices of the two "target" properties, it would be easy for someone to buy either house at a much higher price and pay a lower mortgage than the present rent. (note: prices above are approximate)

U.S. oil and gas rigs fall to 70-year lows Mar 11 2:37pm: So much for "drill, baby, drill." More

"So the interviewer should ask him what he left out of his perfect biblical cycles in 2014 and'15 before salivating over the "dates" for the next big kahuna. That's the kind if info which would be useful. Don't get me wrong though, I like the basic thesis, just not the zeal. Jeff Christian, much hated by the gold community, has a better record and no subscription. Not that he goes in for cycles prediction or, if he does, he doesn't harp on about them." I have met both Bo Polny and Jeff Christian. They are very different. Polny has wide, shining eyes, and a sort of true-believer aura about him. I think he is completely sincere and believes his own cycle projections. I get the sense that he believes he will one day figure them out, and be able to get all the cycles working perfectly. Christian is lower key, and doesn't believe he will reach perfection. He puts his forecasts out as a "Most Likely Scenario" based on the weight of evidence that he is seeing. Because they come at their projections so differently, I think that when their forecasts line up on the same side, there may be an increased chance they are both right. But others who use the same methods may be guilty of group think. So when they are all on the same side, there's a high probability they will be wrong. That's my own hypothesis anyway

I did an interview today with Ramon King of ALVEO (This is at a very basic level - for foreigners just beginning to look at property investing in the Philippines) Makati-1 : Ramon King of ALVEO talks about the basics for foreign buyers A conversation to help foreigns, and especially those in Hong Kong gain a basic introduction to the key facts that an investor needs to know when taking a first look at buying in the Philippines.

Actually, he has called some turn dates pretty well. When he has been wrong, is on the follow-through I always sounds confident that the cycles will work perfectly, but you have to be aware that he may have read the cycles wrong, or left something out. That's what he will tell you, if his forecast goes astray. I do find his views interesting, but take the, with a large grain of salt.

KROMA vs LERATO etc. (here are some comments I received by email): Kroma going up - with Alveo Financial Tower (Jaka) to the left - in the Heart of the emerging City Gate complex Kroma can be positive and negative, since it's in the center of everything. neg - I think it will be a bit crowded and noisy? good for single expats living but not family type. Positive - definitely a good investment since the price will increase after all office buildings and entertainment center finish. Lerato is a bit outside the center but not too far so I think it's great, perfect for family like me. But we are still thinking whether to take it or not, as only 2 beds available right now on tower 2. And I really like legazpi area side. As of now, I will not consider Circuit, I can't remember the price per sqm. Setting aside the price, that place will take a while to get developed. Considering there are still a lot of units available in Makati, I won't invest in there. I am not yet convinced that it will be a great investment. We went to view a couple of old condos in legazpi and Salcedo area like one legazpi park, senta, antel platinum etc... we are debating whether we should take old condo or new ones. Old condo is cheaper but need to do a lot of renovation while new condo looks great but price is higher. (I was asked for comments, and responded as follows): I too am intrigued by the idea of buying an older condo - if they are cheap enough. When we first went to Makati to look at property, that was over two years ago, we thought it might be possible to see some older properties - in the same way that it is possible and easy to view older properties in Hong Kong. We thought we might find an estate agent, walk-in, and within a few minutes view some older properties within walking distance of that agent. I'm not sure why, but it doesn't seem to be possible to do that in Makati, or anywhere in Greater Manila. You might get a viewing of a flat or two if you have an appointment, but that might take days to arrange. (Part of me wonders if there might be a business opportunity inherent in this lack of agents-sitting in shopfront offfices who hold keys for nearby properties to rent or to buy. As you know, it is easy to find those sorts of agents in Hong Kong. Centaline, Midland, Ricacorp, etc are everywhere - and they charge a reasonable 1% on both sides for their service in selling flats, and 1/2 month on each side for rentals.) Instead, I searched on the web, to get an idea of prices, and walked around to see what areas I would consider living in. I also spoke to friends from HK who had moved to Philippines. I realized that if I moved to Manila, and made some contacts, then if I was patient enough ... Over some weeks or months I might hear of a bargain, view the flat, and buy something that was a genuine bargain. But I might have to look at a dozen or more older buildings before I saw something I wanted to buy. The alternative of buying a new property still under-construction seemed better for me. That way, I could get a new property without hidden flaws, have some choice of which apartment I bought, and also have no worries over the issue of getting clean title to my property. I also learned that there were a small handful of developers who had a reputation of delivering a good quality product on time, and in good finished condition. Also very important to me was the quality of Property Management AFTER completion. (I heard some horror stories about properties that lost value after purchase because they were not well managed - maybe public areas looked shabby, and/or they had problems like garbage that could be smelled throughout the building.) After some research, I learned that (ALI) Ayalaland's branded affiliates - that's Alaya Premier, Alveo, and Avida - were the best known of those developers that had a top class reputation. And, funnily enough, their prices were not much higher than the competition. The main things that ALI did was different from their competition was that they required larger payments and sooner, than some other developers. Also, they did not allow flipping by their customers prior to completion. This may cut into sales a bit, but it also means that ALI's properties go into the hands of long term holders who are financially capable. There are very unlikely to be panicky sellers of any ALI properties under construction. If there are people with financial issues, the properties revert to ALI, rather than showing up in the secondary market at distressed prices. This stability should be good for the owners of properties in Ayala projects. I am now happy I bought two years ago. Prices then were maybe 10-15% lower than they are today, and I got the property that I wanted - Mine is on the 4X th floor with an open view. It may not be easy to get the same flat after completion in the secondary market, even if I pay was willing to pay the full market price. The better flats on higher floors might rarely come onto the market. I haven't decided yet whether I want to live in it, or rent it out. But like you, I think the completion of high class office buildings as Citygate (including Alveo Financial Tower, AFT) should enhance the demand for my property, if I decide to rent it out. Apart for lack of choice, and quality of management, another thing to think about in the older buildings, is the amenities. I got spoiled in my prior property in HK - the one I sold in Sept, of last year. We had nice amenities, like a swimming pool (including a small one indoors), a cafe, a library, a computer room, as was as a gym, sauna, and steam room. Few properties in Makati have anything close to that, especially in the older condos. Kroma (with 821 units) has most of these facilities, and Lerato (with over 1,200 units) has even more - Probably the Best Amenities of any condo in Makati ! I hope this is useful, and provides some food for thought.

Manila REI group - LINK // how to join GEI (this forum) : see Post#2 : clue; "admiral b*rd" (use a Y, not an I) Group Photo Well done to I.M. in starting this group, Manila R.E.I. This group is growing nicely, and reflects the desire of investors to be well-informed, and communicating collegially about Real Estate opportunities on their doorstep. People interested in making money in property investing may want to listen to the introduction to the Big Three Property principles discussed in this video: Intro : What are the Three main drivers of Property Prices? :: More Global REO Videos Something to think about: The data I have collected shows: The average (3BR) Condo in Makati has a yield of 7.02% (at 4Q/2015): > source of yield estimate How does that compare with actual Mortgage interest rates - & where are interest rates headed? If interest rates should go down, don't you think yields (Rents) will fall too, especially since there are so many new condos under construction? On the other hand, there are may people who might want to move into a flat in Makati, if Rents came lower.