drbubb

"I might consider buying some type of Oil security today. But probably options related, and not a huge position" Here's the sort of thing I might buy: a Feb $7 Call on USO - there's not much time value in it Feb.$7 Call vs. USO (US Oil, crude) ...update : Feb.$7 : Mar.$7 : USO Thursday's action: =====: Open : -Low- : -High- : Close : change : Pct. WTIC : 27.34 : 26.05 : 27.48 : 27.30 : -$0.03 : - 0.11% / v. 719.0k USO- : $7.99 : $7.67 : $8.03 : $7.99 : +$0.03 : +0.41% / v. 94.43 mn F.$7C : $0.96 : $0.95 : $1.19 : $1.19 : +$0.07 : +6.25% / v. 0,215 (bid/offer : $1.14 - 1.21) M$7C : $1.33 : $1.33 : $1.33 : $1.33 : -$0.33 : - 2.21% / v. 0,020 (bid/offer : $1.28 - 1.43) OIH--- : 21.64 : 21.64 : 22.12 : 21.92 : -$0.18 : - 0.81% / v. 7.37 mn Mr20c : ------- : ------- : ------- : $2.78 : -$0.20 : - 6.71% / V. 0000 (bid/offer : $2.69 - 2.90)

Stocks and Gold are it critical levels - if they push through Long Term trend reversals (going back years) may be confirmed If not, the direction we have seen since the beginning of 2016 may be reversed With more lines... Might SPY (182.86) go back to touch GLD (119.06) ? Ratio: 1.536 Ratio: SPY to GLD: The Ratio peaked at just over 2:1. It is back down near 1.5:1. If it breaks that level, I could see it sliding to 1:1 - the "crossover" point in the 2nd chart

Residential rental rate appreciation slows in the 4th quarter . Rental rate growth slowed down on average to 1.1% for all major areas. Rockwell Center condominiums continued to command the highest rates per sq m, averaging at PHP963 per sq m for premium units. Makati CBD unit rents averaged at PHP883 per sq m growing by 0.91%, while Fort Bonifacio premium condos were slightly higher at PHP891 per sq m with a 1.0% growth. Ortigas Center prime condominiums averaged at PHP506 per sq m, an increase of 1.2% from the previous quarter == > http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/phil_knowledge_4q2015.pdf RENTALS : Makati, Bonifacio, Rockwell to Q4 - 2015 : source Qtr /Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : YronYr / Lo - Makati - H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockwell- H / 3Q /2102 : 0,708 : +1.2E% : +5.0E% / 0,525 - 0,890 / 0,568 - 0,850 / 0,677 - 0,950 : 4Q /2012 : 0,720 : +1.69% : +7.0E% / 0,525 - 0,915 / 0,570 - 0,865 / 0,686 - 0,912 : 1Q /2013 : 0,735 : +2.08% : +8.0E% / 0,540 - 0,930 / 0,580 - 0,890 / 0,700 - 0,930 : 2Q /2013 : 0,780 : +6.12% : +11 E% / 0,545 - 1,015 / 0,590 -0,940e/ 0,705 -0,970e: 3Q /2013 : 0,800 : +2.56% : +13.0% / 0,550 - 1,050 / 0,600 - 0,990 / 0,710 - 1,000 : 4Q /2013 : 0,805 : +0.63% : +11.8% / 0,550 - 1,060 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,720 - 1,020 : 1Q /2014 : 0,810 : +0.62% : +10.2% / 0,555 - 1,065 / 0,610 - 1,020 / 0,725 - 1,025 : 2Q /2014 : 0,820 : +1.23% : +5.13% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,625 - 1,025 / 0,740 - 1,030 : 3Q /2014 : 0,830 : +1.22% : +3.75% / 0,570 - 1,090 / 0,630 - 1,035 / 0,790 - 1,090 : 4Q /2014 : 0,838 : +0.96% : +4.10% / 0,575 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,045 / 0,750 - 1,055 : 1Q /2015 : 0,848 : +1.19% : +4.69% / 0,578 - 1,118 / 0,660 - 1,050 / 0,755 - 1,080 : 2Q /2015 : 0,862 : +1.65% : +5.12% / 0,588 - 1,135 / 0,672 - 1,070 / 0,769 - 1,099 : 3Q /2015 : 0,875 : +1.51% : +5.42% / 0,595 - 1,155 / 0,680 - 1,083 / 0,804 - 1,098 : 4Q /2015 : 0,883 : +0.91% : + 5.37 % / 0,600 - 1,166 / 0,688 - 1,094 / 0,814 - 1,094 : YoY f'cast: 0,856 : --------> : - 3.06% (prev.: 0,845 - 3.39%) Qtr /Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : YronYr / Lo - Makati - H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockwell- H / Makati Yield 3br?: 4Q/ 2015: 0,883 x12 = 10,596/ 151,000: 7.02% Yield (prev. 6.95%)

Research & Forecast Report PHILIPPINES 4Q 2015 The Philippine economy grew at its fastest rate in 2015 during the fourth quarter, posting a growth of 6.3%. However, this accelerated growth was not enough to compensate for the slower growth during the rst three quarters, ending up with an overall rate of 5.8% in 2015, compared to 6.1% in 2014. The services sector continued to propel the economy, growing by an impressive 7.4%, while the industrial sector grew by 6.8% . . . Residential - rental rate appreciation slows in the 4th quarter Three new condominium buildings with 1,581 new units were completed in the major business districts of Metro Manila. Amid rising inventory levels, vacancy rates for residential condominiums continued to rise in all major districts, with Makati CBD overall vacancies rising to 8.9%. Nevertheless, rental rate growth still increased albeit at a more modest pace of 1.1% during the fourth quarter; . . . Rockwell Center condominiums continued to command the highest rates per sq m, averaging at PHP963 per sq m for premium units. Makati CBD unit rents averaged at PHP883 per sqm growing by 0.91%, while Fort Bonifacio premium condos were slightly higher at PHP891 per sq m with a 1.0% growth. Ortigas Center prime condominiums averaged at PHP506 per sq m, an increase of 1.2% from the previous quarter Prices have stopped rising, and a small dip is now expected by Q4-2016 4Q /2014 : 144,500 : +1.23% : + 7.11% : 100,000- 189,000 : 110,000 - 180,000 : 117,000 - 180,000 : 1Q /2015 : 147,350 : +1.97% : + 7.92% : 102,500- 192,200 : 113,000 - 179,500 : 119,000 - 189,000 : 2Q /2015 : 149,000 : +1.11% : + 7.91% : 104,000- 194,000 : 114,000 - 182,000 : 119,000 - 198,000 : 3Q /2015 : 151,000 : +1.34% : + 5.78% : 106,000- 196,000 : 114,000 - 185,000 : 121,000 - 201,000 : 4Q /2015 : 151,000 : +0.00% : + 4.50 % : 106,000- 196,000 : 115,000 - 185,000 : 122,000 - 202,000 : Qtr / Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : Yr.onYr. / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H / Est: 4Q /2016 : 149,000 : -------- : -1.3% Est : 105,000- 193,000 : 112,000 - 181,000 : 120,000 - 200,000 : Some surprising Good News: HOTEL AND LEISURE : Substantial hotel room stock to be added in 2016 Around 1,739 new rooms were introduced in the metropolis during 2015, with two new hotels being delivered during the second half of the year. The Novotel Manila in Araneta Center, Quezon City, started operations during the fourth quarter of 2015, in time for the arrival of Filipinos based overseas during the Christmas season. The hotel was well received especially since there is a lack of quality accommodations in the northern part of the metropolis. Jin Jiang Hotels, one of the largest hotel operators in China, opened its second hotel in the Philippines in Ortigas Center. Should all projects be completed as planned, Metro Manila will see another 5,300 keys added to its room stock in 2016. This includes two ve-star hotels in Fort Bonifacio — the Shangri-la at the Fort and the Grand Hyatt Manila. Metro Manila hotel occupancy surges in the 2H15 Foreign arrivals continued to increase, reaching 4,395,812 visitors as of October 2015 and growing by 11.1% compared to the same period in 2014. The figures are quite reassuring to the Philippine government, which has not been hitting its ambitious foreign arrival goals for the past few years despite a well thought out publicity campaign. Arrivals increased despite the “tanim-bala” or bullet planting extortion schemes allegedly conducted by airport officials on unsuspecting tourists. The arrival figures were given a boost by the Asia-Pacic Economic Cooperation (APEC) which the Philippines hosted in 2015, with meetings held in various areas in the country since the start of the year and culminated in November with world leaders attending the APEC Summit in Manila. This surge in arrivals led to an increase in average occupancy rates to 70% during the second half of 2015, a welcome development... == > http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/phil_knowledge_4q2015.pdf

AFT- 1 / ALVEO Financial Tower & City Gate: Location City Gate is strategically located on Ayala Avenue, in the corners of Amorsolo and Salcedo Streets, making it highly accessible to major thoroughfares such as Ayala Ave., Sen. Gil Puyat Ave., and the Skyway. It will soon be constructed with elevated walkways that will also connect City Gate to Ayala Center and to the rest of the CBDs. City Gate's location is also surrounded by some of the top schools in the country such as Don Bosco Technical Institute, Assumption College, Colegio San Agustin and Asian Institute of Management. It is also nearby shopping malls like Glorietta, Greenbelt, Alphaland Southgate Mall and SM Makati and a wide range of residential condominiums and accommodation options such as Oriental Garden Condominium, San Lorenzo Place, Makati Shangri-La, Crown Regency, Eurotel Makati and InterContinental Manila. Building Features City Gate's 120,000 square meters gross floor area will be divided into four: 53,000 square meters will be alloted for business process outsourcing (BPO) firms, 28,000 square meters for traditional headquarter-type offices, 25,000 square meters for a key Seda Suites Hotel and 14,000 square meters for s retail mall. One of the key features of City Gate will be the open and green civic space that will be located at the end (or start) of Makati's elevated walkway system. This 2,600 square meter space will be a place where residents, office workers and mall-goers can relax and unwind. Mall patrons and residents can begin enjoying the retail and civic space by 2017 while the offices will be ready by 2016. Seda Suites Hotel will open its doors by 2019. == > source: http://kmcmaggroup.com/blog/2015/2/18/city-gate-a-new-lifestyle-spot-to-watch-for/ Mall patrons and residents can begin enjoying the retail and civic space by 2017 while the offices will be ready by 2018. Seda Suites Hotel will open its doors by 2019. Ayala Land will be investing a total of P7B in City Gate and is expected to generate 10,000 jobs. > http://www.philstar.com/business/2014/12/15/1402683/ayala-land-launches-city-gate-phase-one 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ === === Comment on AFT & other ALVEO Office projects a._f. Price per sqm of AFT is now at 250k per sqm according to Alveo. My client already started to earn on his AFT units, he bought his AFT units at 220k per sqm. Attending the 2nd priority selling of AFT later, there are reopened units and floors. Oh by the way, Alveo Financial Tower units will be open for leasing before turnover. APMC, us brokers, Jones Lang Lasalle and Colliers will be handling the unit leasing for AFT, same goes to Stiles Enterprise Center, Park Triangle Corporate Plaza North and South Towers and High Street South Corporate Plaza. 2/ Wow! I can't imagine driving up 16 floors up just to get to parking.You would think with the sheer number of parking floors, which is 24 in total, if one were to visit the building or even just use it to park in the Makati CBD, they will never run out of space, eh? Better yet, anybody who works in the building and nearby building should have a parking space allotted for them if so desired. I wonder how much are they planning to charge. === > ssc: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1568161&page=14 I think that comment is just advertising spin, since the client has "earned" nothing yet. He has a paper profit, that would be severely eroded by costs, if he/she tried to capture it. Also, AFT will not be complete until 2020, so the "earnings machine" will not be turned on for some time. Even so, the demand for the project is strong, as we can see in the rising price

Makati / BGC : Investing in, or renting Office space (AFT, etc.) AFT = ALVEO Financial Tower, etc / Residential to Office balance - see post #?? > slides Contrary to initial information, this Ayala Avenue office project will actually be developed into a Premium office building and not into a Grade A structure. What’s the difference between Premium and Grade A? First off, the amenities are markedly different. The finishes and materials used are of a higher quality and the location is normally in a major, normally a landmark, thoroughfare. Which is why when we first heard that the development was going to be Grade A something felt amiss. So it is fantastic to know that Ayala decided to go premium for the Alveo Financial Tower. === Here are 5 advantages on why you should add commercial office properties to build recurring income: 1. STRONG DEMAND & TIGHT SUPPLY FOR OFFICE UNITS Inflow of overseas companies for outsourcing as well as the demand from local entrepreneurs has been increasing rapidly. Currently, office occupancy is very high with only 5-6% vacancy rate as compared to a 15% vacancy rate last 2001. In previous years, property developers of office space kept their corporate leasing clients to themselves. Office space is rarely sold to retail clients. 2. LONGER LEASE TERMS & GOOD RENTAL RETURNS Compared to residential leasing, corporate leasing usually has longer leases. An office investment can actually yield a conservatively low 5% return on its first 3 years and increase to 7-10% return as the building occupancy gets higher. This means that the rental return from a 2-3% bank interest rate will take 30 years as compared to what the office property can give in a short span of 10-12 years. 3. BETTER MAINTENANCE AND LIMITED INVOLVEMENT FOR OWNERS Because corporate offices are constantly in the public eye, most corporate tenants maintain the unit very well which is very beneficial to the owner. Corporate clients are also easier to deal with as they already have admin staff to fix most of their worries vs. residential clients who will need the landlord’s assistance in most of their concerns. Since you are providing them a shell space only, most of the time, your corporate tenant would just deal with the building admin for their daily concerns and regular maintenance. 4. NOW MORE AFFORDABLE BECAUSE OF LOW LOAN RATES With low rates offered by banks, buyers are able to get lower cash out and longer no interest charges in house terms of their purchase. What was once an area exclusively for moneyed investors has now become affordable and within reach for first time investors. ===== Supply/Demand 1/ /2 /3 Makati Yield & Capital Values Premium : Yield% : -Rent : -Mean- : QonQtr : Yr.onYr. / - Premium - / --- GradeA-- : Mean : Rent- / -- GradeB-- / 4Q /2012 : 8.73% : 0,915 : 125.8k: +n/a+% : + n/a+% : 120.0-131.6 / 071.7-098.9 : 085.3: 0,735 / 049.5-067.3 / 4Q /2013 : 9.80% : 1,143 : 140.0k: +n/a+% : + 11.3% : 136.5-143.4 / 075.0-104.2 : 089.6: 0,778 / 059.0-083.5 / 4Q /2014 : 8.94% : 1,150 : 154.3k: +n/a+% : + 10.2% : 146.5-162.0 / 083.0-113.0 : 103.5: 0,850 / 059.0-083.5 / 1Q /2015 : 8.92% : 1,175 : 158.0k: +0.00% : + n/a+% : 148.0-168.0 / 086.0-118.0 : 103.5: 0,878 / 062.0-085.0 / 2Q /2015 : 8.99% : 1,202 : 160.5k: +1.58% : + n/a+% : 150.0-171.0 / 087.0-120.0 : 103.5: 0,894 / 063.0-087.0 / 3Q /2015 : 9.28% : 1,250 : 161.5k: +0.62% : + n/a+% : 150.0-173.0 / 087.0-122.0 : 104.5: 0,905 / 063.0-091.0 / 4Q /2015 : 9.14% : 1,270 : 166.8k: +3.28% : + 8.10% : 154.3-179.2 / 089.7-128.0 : 108.9: 0,910 / 065.7-095.7 / 1Q /2016 : 8.77% : 1,275 : 174.5k: +4.62% : + 10.4% : 161.0-188.0 / 095.0-135.0 : 115.0: 0,910 / 84.50: R715/ 2Q /2016 : 8.60% : 1,285 : 179.2k: +2.75% : + 11.7% : 165.5-192.8 / 097.6-139.3 : 118.5: 0,915 / 87.08: 715. / 3Q /2016 : 8.85% : 1,350 : 183.1k : +2.18% : + 13.4% : 169.1-197.0 / 100.4-143.4 : 121.9: 0,950 / 89.97: 735. / Qtr/ Year : Yield% : Rent : Mean: QonQtr : Yr.onYr / -Premium - / --- GradeA-- : Mean : Rent- / -GrB.M : Rent / Forecast : 3Q /2017 : 8.54% : 1,410 : 198.1k : +2.64% : + 8.37% : 182.9-213.2 / 108.7-155.1 : 131.9: 0,985 / 95.06: 785.0 / Prior: 4Q /2016 : 8.60% : 1,260 : 175.9k: +1.37 % : + 5.46% : 162.8-189.0 / 094.6-135.1 : 114.9: 0,908 / 069.2-100.7 / ======== > source: 3Q : 4Q-2015 / 2016: Q1 : Q2 : Q3 : Q4 / OFFICE SUPPLY (see post #15) Location: Makati- : -Ortigas- : FtBonifacio: Alabang : Man.Bay : +? = TOTAL : Mak+BGC end'15 : 2,853,034 : 1,380,282 : 1,170,503: .. 389,701: . 257,422 : : 7,504,365 :2016 F : . . 13,250 : . . 14,503 : .. 177,845 : . . 35,562 : . . 61,536 : ? . . 450,385 : 201,095 :2017 F : . . 16,465 : . . 60,617 : .. 385,695 : . . 86,658 : . . 73,755 : ? . . 817,968 : 402,160 >> Biggest year! 2017 :2018 F : . . 41,326 : . . 45,673 : .. 173,114 : . . . .- 00 - : ..142,351 : ? . . 756,754 : 214,440 :2019 F : . . 50,362 : . . . .- 00 - : .. 250,401 : . . 58,277 : ..123,452 : ? . . 881,965 : 290,763 :2020 F : . 183,453 : .. 278,445 : . . 29,634 : . . 35,010 : ..105,572 : ? . . 840,096 : 213,087 :5 Years: . 304,857 : .. 399,238 : 1,016,689 : . 216,506 : . 506,667 : ? 3,747,168: 1,321,545 TOTAL : 3,157,891 : 1,779,520 : 2,187,192 : . 605,207 : . 764,089 : : 11,251,533: +change : + 10.7% : .. + 28.9% : .. + 86.9% : .. + 55.3% : . +196.8% : . . + 49.9%: =============== MANILA AREA RENTS Office Rents & Vacancies - Q3-2016 CBD are--- : Rent psm : Vacancy Makati ------ : P 1,115 : 1.3 % : Prime------- : P 1,433 : 2.7 % : Grade A---- : P 1,006 : 0.1 % Fort Bonifacio: P 909 : 0.9 % Alabang------ : P 653 : 5.2 % Quezon City- : P 692 : 2.2 % Ortigas------- : P 635 : 1.1 % Bay Area----- : P 682 : 0.0 % ======== Q3-2016 : http://www.cbre.com....Market-View.pdf

AFT- 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ === === Comment on AFT & other ALVEO Office projects a._f. Price per sqm of AFT is now at 250k per sqm according to Alveo. My client already started to earn on his AFT units, he bought his AFT units at 220k per sqm. Attending the 2nd priority selling of AFT later, there are reopened units and floors. Oh by the way, Alveo Financial Tower units will be open for leasing before turnover. APMC, us brokers, Jones Lang Lasalle and Colliers will be handling the unit leasing for AFT, same goes to Stiles Enterprise Center, Park Triangle Corporate Plaza North and South Towers and High Street South Corporate Plaza. 2/ Wow! I can't imagine driving up 16 floors up just to get to parking.You would think with the sheer number of parking floors, which is 24 in total, if one were to visit the building or even just use it to park in the Makati CBD, they will never run out of space, eh? Better yet, anybody who works in the building and nearby building should have a parking space allotted for them if so desired. I wonder how much are they planning to charge. === > ssc: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1568161&page=14 I think that comment is just advertising spin, since the client has "earned" nothing yet. He has a paper profit, that would be severely eroded by costs, if he/she tried to capture it. Also, AFT will not be complete until 2020, so the "earnings machine" will not be turned on for some time. Even so, the demand for the project is strong, as we can see in the rising price === === > See New Makati office space thread: xx

AFT / ALVEO Financial Tower, etc > slides === Here are 5 advantages on why you should add commercial office properties to build recurring income: 1. STRONG DEMAND & TIGHT SUPPLY FOR OFFICE UNITS Inflow of overseas companies for outsourcing as well as the demand from local entrepreneurs has been increasing rapidly. Currently, office occupancy is very high with only 5-6% vacancy rate as compared to a 15% vacancy rate last 2001. In previous years, property developers of office space kept their corporate leasing clients to themselves. Office space is rarely sold to retail clients. 2. LONGER LEASE TERMS & GOOD RENTAL RETURNS Compared to residential leasing, corporate leasing usually has longer leases. An office investment can actually yield a conservatively low 5% return on its first 3 years and increase to 7-10% return as the building occupancy gets higher. This means that the rental return from a 2-3% bank interest rate will take 30 years as compared to what the office property can give in a short span of 10-12 years. 3. BETTER MAINTENANCE AND LIMITED INVOLVEMENT FOR OWNERS Because corporate offices are constantly in the public eye, most corporate tenants maintain the unit very well which is very beneficial to the owner. Corporate clients are also easier to deal with as they already have admin staff to fix most of their worries vs. residential clients who will need the landlord’s assistance in most of their concerns. Since you are providing them a shell space only, most of the time, your corporate tenant would just deal with the building admin for their daily concerns and regular maintenance. 4. NOW MORE AFFORDABLE BECAUSE OF LOW LOAN RATES With low rates offered by banks, buyers are able to get lower cash out and longer no interest charges in house terms of their purchase. What was once an area exclusively for moneyed investors has now become affordable and within reach for first time investors. ===== Supply/Demand 1/ /2 /3

Abitibi Royalties (RZZ.v) versus Golden Valley (GZZ.v) RZZ and GZZ used to move together - but not so much since -- May 2014, when RZZ took off GZZ.v vs. RZZ.v ... update : 1-year : 10d / GZZ continues to hold 51% (?), yet RZZ is establishing itself as an independent Royalty company, with at least one core holding The Ratio of stock prices (Rzz -to-Gzz) has recently "blown out" to about 37:1, and is now about 34:1 At 34:1, GZZ is trading at 1/34, or just under 3% (ie 2.94%) of RZZ's price / update: $9.48/0.28 = 1/33.9 GZZ : 3yr : old-$0.00 > $0.28 : 0.24-0.495 - at 1/22/17 RZZ : 3yr : old-$0.00 > $9.48 : $7.41-10.75 - at 1/22/17

Thanks. Yet the logic of selling here is embedded in the cycle, and the too-fast price rise, with the gaps inside. $1200 was an obvious target, and some sellers would have been happy to unload when we approached that target yesterday Meantime, we see this in Stocks overnight: U.S. Stock Futures S&P +19.50 / +1.06% Level 1,867.75 Fair Value 1,847.27 Difference 20.48 > http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

Taking Profits on Gold Calls See the Cycle charts - Gold may be peaking here: CYCLE Tester - Compare Current cycle, with the prior one. GLD-12mos Compare 5mos & 4mos earlier : ------current prices-----> ---- : ------------------------------ (as I posted elsewhere): Have you seen Gold, recently? D. was questioning me about my purchase of Gold - and I made this comment 33 days ago: "In my case, I paid about $10,000 or about 2%, to control approximately $500,000 worth of gold - that's the HK $4 million value mentioned above. These options are now in-the-money, with a $103 strike price, while GLD closed at $106+ yesterday. GLD was a little below $102 when I did the trade on 12/31/2015. The beauty of this trade is, up to the March 2016 expiry, I cannot lose more than the options premium that I paid (ie about $10,000), The Silver trade you keep referring to happened over a year ago. And it involved calls as well. In that case, I lost the entire premium. Since then, I have had several winning and losing trades on options. I mentioned this one, because I would not have done the trade if I had not sold my HK property. And when I was pondering the size of the underlying contract (HK $4 million), I was very aware that I have approximately that value invested in Time Deposits. The point is that, using options you can effectively shift parts of your portfolio in and out of various sectors, and do it with very limited risk. The Gold trade was inspired by the Cycles I have been following, which I identified, analyzed and discussed pretty thoroughly on a public forum before I did the trade. There is a strong seasonal tendency for gold to rise in January, and maybe February after a down year. And the 4-6 months cycle also lined up with this trade.' === === I can tell you that GLD /Gold was about $102 when I made the investment in Gold calls, It closed yesterday at $113,58 with Gold at $1,189 per ounce. - and I have now taken most of my profits on those calls, capturing a profit of over 200% on the cost of the calls. (The way I have played it, there's still some upside on what is now a spread position.) There were some gaps left in recent days, and i have noticed that there is a tendency for such gaps to be filled, so there may be a correction soon. (If the charts look right, I may buy some new GLD calls during that correction.)

VALUATION of Condos can be tricky in an illiquid market Discussing valuations is something we can do on this thread also As an example: Construction at Lerato . Flats in Tower 1 are being handed over LERATO - a pretty bold asking price? "Selling a 31sqm studio unit with parking at tower 1 of Lerato. Fully furnished with top notch appliances. All for 5.5M neg. Message me if interested. It's fully paid also with clean title." - H. (02/08/2016) > SSC === Considering it may have had a cost of: P-3.1mn + 400k for furnishing = P-3.5mn This is a pretty bold asking price... though it does include parking. P- 5.5mn / 31 = 177.4k psm Is Lerato really fetching such a price now? If you estimate the parking space is worth, 900k, then: P- 5.5mn -0.9 = 4.6mn / 31 = 148.4k psm As a comparison; an alternative flat For Sale was posted a few weeks ago "RFO studio for sale, P3.5M fixed." .PM me.or call 09189282974 - O. (01/19/2016) > SSC (on the same page) P- 3.5mn / 31? = 112.9k psm These huge differences are typical of a non-transparent and illiquid market, where bids, offers, and recent transactions are not well known. I expect the huge gap is the difference between someone trying to cash a decent profit at P-148k psf and a keen seller (distressed seller?) at P-113k psm. THAT IS A BIG GAP ! (113k / 148k : 76% > 24% less) If people were better informed, and it was easy to view, buy, and finance flats in the Philippines, then that gap would narrow. Perhaps over the life of this thread, and this website, we will see a substantial narrowing of the valuation gap. And GEI and its readers will play some role in helping the gap to narrow

So what happened with the Design of my studio flat? Here's some photos of the semi-furnished flat follow. There's a sitting area, and a bed (Full-size, made of Philippines Mahogany). At the foot of the bed, is a built-in mirrored wardrobe. ... and on the other side of the room is the desk and working area. The Top 8 Most expensive items that I bought: ======== 1. A/C, Kolin inverter - : P-25,000 : Hk$ 4,167 : $ 4,000 - AC inverter (estimate, Fortress) 2. Bed, mahogany ---- : P-24,233 : Hk$ 4,039 : $ 3,690 - Malm bed, w/ storage 3. Kitchen cabinet, ext.: P-17,700 : Hk$ 2,950 : $ 3,000 - Built-in, no IKEA equivalent 4. Wardrobe, mirrored : P-17,000 : HK$ 2,833 : $ 2,390 - Musken wardrobe 5. Desk /Table-Victoria : P-14,400 : Hk$ 2,400 : $ 0,890 - Bjusta table, extendable 6. Mattress, Ambass.-- : P-12,830 : Hk$ 2,138 : $ 3,790 - Hovag, pocket sprung mattress 7. Sofa Bed - Victoria- : P-08,750 : Hk$ 1,458 : $ 0,899 - Solsta sofabed, 2-seater 8. Two dining chairs--- : P-08,000 : Hk$ 1,333 : $ 2,500 - Henriksdal chairs, black leather == Sub-Total, top 8 items-: P127,913 : Hk$21,319 : $21,159 - VERY SIMILAR amount ! So far, i spent just over P 163,000, but two major items I have yet to buy are: + A refrigerator, and + A TV set ( which I plan to mount on the wall) With these two items, my spending is likely to hit or exceed P-185,000 (HKD 30,800) There is no single shop (like IKEA), where you can get all the items you may want at a reasonable cost. Before I came to Makati, I had selected all the items I wanted - see list above. So I was disappointed to discover there was no official store here, with IKEA items at IKEA prices. People who want to furnish their units can do what I did, and visit about 10 different furniture stores, and slowly cherry-pick the items they want, or they can hire a professional designer / architect, such as: + Jun Sayson : mentioned above in post #10 + Rasee - who posted this on the Lerato thread on SSC: Hello, just in case somebody needs my services to design and do unit fit-outs, shoot me a message. Here are some before and after photos of my previous projects. https://www.flickr.com/photos/139248.../shares/321555

One of the key factors to consider when Renting or Buying is AFFORDABILITY. > see Database for Historical Prices on : http://tinyurl.com/PHP-makati Gains for ---- : q4-2004 : q4-2007: q4-2015 : '04 >'15 : Ave.% / '07>'15 : Ave.% Makati Condo : P67,840 : P95,000 : 151,000 : +122.6%: 1.84% / +58.95%: 1.56% Makati Rent-- : P ??? /m : P 539/m : P 883/m : + N./A + : + n/a +/ +63.82%: 1.58% Price Inflation- : 100.00 i : 115.95 i : 164.50 i : + 64.0% : 1.13% / +41.44%: 1.09% =========== The more rapid increase in property prices (beyond CPI price inflation) has been aided by falling interest rates. Affordability of the RENT to the tenant is a major issue driving Yields & Investment Returns And also, what sort of Tenant or Buyer the Condo for are looking at is targeting. LET's START : by looking at the Lower End ... the Mass Demand for all those small flats under construction... With so many offices in the BPO / Call Centre field, it is important to know how much income workers in that sector learn Average and Median Monthly Salary Comparison in Philippines in Customer Service and Call Center Maximum: 183,333 PHP Average: 31,647 PHP Median : 22,000 PHP Minimum : 8,000 PHP > http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=171&loctype=1&jobtype=1&job=19 The median for Makati (alone) should be much higher than that PHP 22,000 for the Philippines as a whole. And the Makati Median should be at or above the Average of 31,647 PHP If we assume P 30,000 is an average salary for Makati-based call center workers - then two workers sharing, may be able to afford a Php 20,000 studio (1/3 of their combined salary). And the better-paid workers may be able to afford a better or larger flat. Studios above P20-25,000 per month would require more than two people, or better paying jobs But I think this shows that as long as the BPI job market in Makati remains strong and growing, you are not going to see many decent condos - including studios renting below Php 20,000 per month. ===== ===== LOOKING BACK : Comment made at the Q2- 2009 Low: "Residential sales for new and pre-selling developments started to pick up in 2Q09. But secondary market residential sales are still sluggish. There is a strong preference for newer developments and this has kept the number of transactions in the secondary residential market slow. Nevertheless, implied prices of luxury residential condominiums in Makati CBD were still flat at P101,000/sqm. Prices of pre-selling condominiums have are testing the 120,000- 130,000/sqm level, the most expensive being the ultra-luxury residential developments. The reason why condominium prices are holding up is because Makati remains an attractive market for investors who are buying units to be rented out. With no new developments to be completed this year, capital values are expected to decrease by a mere 1% over the next twelve (12) months" > source Q2-2009: Colliers: http://www.bpap.org/bpap/publications/Knowledge%20July%202009.pdf

On this thread, we will also talk about what BUYERS are looking for in Makati condos. I have noticed that there are several very active threads on Skyscraper City.com about condos presently under-construction in Makati: > SSC-Makati : http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=1274 It seems that OFW's (and others) who have bought condos in Makati, use these threads, and the photos they include as a way to monitor the progress on properties they have purchased, or are considering for purchase. The most active Makati Condo threads on SSC are as of : FEB. 2016 : TOP 10 CONDOS, by Hits : ================= + Jazz Residences.... ( 3,971 replies - 786.5k views) + Trump Tower ......... ( 2,382 replies - 503.6k v / Stratford Res ( 1,533 r - 375.4k v) / Knightsbridge (completed) + The Beacon ........... ( 1,923 replies - 394.7k views) + San Lorenzo Place ( 1,646 replies - 336.0k views) + Park Terraces ....... ( 1,057 replies - 254.7k v) / Garden Twrs ( 377 r - 100.4k) + The Rise ... / fb ..... ( 1,180 replies - 287.9k v) / Air Residence ( 335 r - 90.0k) + The Proscenium... ( 0,994 replies - 262.3k views) + Circuit Makati ...... ( 0,844 replies - 200.5k v) / Solstice ( 127 r - 28.0k + Avida San Lorenzo ( 0,792 replies - 167.8k views) + Linear .................... ( 0,728 repiles - 158.9k views) ================= San Lorenzo Place is next to the MRT (Magallanes station) : MRT-Map-large ALSO POPULAR ====== + The Lerato ..................... ( 665 replies - 158.4k views) + Citygate ......................... ( 273 replies - 67,555 v) / Kroma ( 258 r - 75.8k v) / AFT ( 277 r - 62.0k v) + Shang Salcedo .............. ( 580 replies - 158.0k views) + Alphaland Makati Tower ( 435 replies - 126,019 views) + Eton Tower ................... ( 325 replies - 108,000 views) + Brio Tower .....................( 508 replies - 97,245 views) + Two & Three Central .....( 324 replies - 95,671 v) / One Central ( 1,500 r - 300k v) : / Outside Makati / + Light Resid., Manda. .... ( 5,400 r - 923k v.) : Mandayulong (Boni station, on MRT) + Flare Towers, Manda. ... ( 5,300 r - 853k v.) : Mandayulong (Boni station) =================== Properties that are completed are moved to another section of SSC

Makati Tips: Choosing a Condo to Rent (or to Buy) How to find, buy or rent the ideal Condo in Makati (When we have more members living in and near Makati, I plan to run a poll here) Meantime, I would like to ask those who are living in the Philippines to join the discussion. / You can Join GEI : HERE : see post #2 / To start with, We can talk about the ideal condo TO RENT. Later on, we can discuss the ideal condo TO BUY.. (only if we understand the needs of renters, can we make solid decisions about what to buy for investment.) There seem to be two main category of renters, those looking to use it as : + A Work Pad : Those who have another property, further away (in the provinces), and need a "pad" near their place of work, so that they can have an easier and shorter commute for each day of work. They may return to their provincial home on the weekend. Obviously, a work pad can be smaller, because the tenants only needs some clothes for work, and a place to sleep + A MAIN Home : Those whose only, or whose principle property will be the one that they are seeking to rent, and live in. I can also imagine that there will be many people, who will start out renting a WP (Work pad), possibly on a shared basis, and will later decide they want to live permanently in the Makati area, and will seek a (larger) Main home property. They will be seen as trading up from perhaps a studio to 1BR, or 2BR flat, For mass demand, absorbing all those small flats being built: There may also be young people who work in a call center, working peculiar hours (not 9am to 5pm) and have a home in the provinces where their parents life. These people may have a WP type flat, but want to live a "full" Life from it, while they are in Makati ========== LINK to here : http://tinyurl.com/Makati-TIPS Other notes- : soho-lay : both : mo-lay : weebly : ==========

Triggering a Crash, creates opportunity for TPTB http://www.zerohedge...xt-global-crash The Secret Behind The Next Global Crash Selected Persian Gulf traders, and that includes Westerners working in the Gulf confirm that Saudi Arabia is unloading at least $1 trillion in securities and crashing global markets under orders from the Masters of the Universe – those above the lame presidency of Barack Obama. Moscow and Tehran are very much on it. The logic behind crashing markets, creating a recession and a depression – from the point of view of the Masters of the Universe above the lame duck President of the United States — is to engineer a major slow down, cripple buying patterns, decrease oil and natural gas consumption, and point Russia on a road to ruin. Besides, the ultra low oil price also translates into a sort of ersatz sanction on Iran. Still, Iranian oil about to reach the market will be around an extra 500,000 barrels a day by mid-year, plus a surplus stored in tankers in the Persian Gulf. This oil can and will be absorbed, as demand is rising (in the US, for instance, by 1.9 million barrels a day in 2015) while supply is falling. Surging demand and falling production will reverse the oil crash by July. Moreover, China’s oil imports recently surged 9.3% at 7.85 million barrels a day, discrediting the hegemonic narrative of a collapse of China's economy – or of China being responsible for the current market blues. So, as I outlined here, oil should turn around soon. Goldman Sachs concurs. That gives the Masters of the Universe a short window of opportunity enabling the Saudis to dump massive amounts of securities in the markets. The House of Saud may need the money badly, considering their budget on red alert. But dumping their securities is also clearly self-destructive. They simply cannot sell $8 trillion. The House of Saud is actually destroying the balance of their wealth.

Canopy Pool Villas - ALI Premier has a new launch at Arca South Arca South Taguig A mixed-use Ayala Land master-planned developing estate (complete with office, commercial, retail, recreational and institutional offerings, twice the size of BGC, near Makati BGC and NAIA, to benefit from C5/C6 Skyway connector) Timeline 2017 completion of 2 BPOs, Ayala Mall 2018 completion of phase 1 for residential, BPO towers 3-6 , Seda hotel Arbor Lanes ALP’s maiden residential community in Arca South Mid-rise bldgs interspersed by pools and gardens 1,2,3&4BR rendered in classic and special, flat and bi-level configurations for a true home feel 13% appreciation in 12mos Other points of consideration for end-use or investment Php153k/sqm inclusive of taxes - considerably lower than BGC and Makati Worsening traffic conditions have made renting residential units near CBDs a more practical proposition for employees during the weekdays - near BGC, Makati and the eventual Arca South CBD New office supply forecast - additional 578,000sqm by 2018 (will translate to an increase in demand for residential unit rentals near CBDs) Rental growth steady amid rise in future completions An average rental growth rate of 1.5% was observed during 3Q 2015 for premium residential condominium property in the major CBDs. Rental rates for premium residential condos in the major CBDs continues to grow, increasing by around 1.5% in the the 3rd quarter. Luxury condominiums lower have vacancy rates at 4% vs all other grades at 8%

Kitco Charts Show Gold Rallying In Most Currencies - Kitco News, Feb 3 2016 11:55AM New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley chimed in on the greenback Wednesday, noting that continued dollar strength could have “significant consequences” on the U.S. economy. However, gold has not only shined in U.S. dollar terms as it has managed to see strength in other currencies. Based on Kitco’s Gold-Currency Charts, gold priced in both “hard” and “other” currencies have all posted gains in the last 30 days. The Kitco charts provide gold prices in multiple currency terms, including the U.S. dollar, euro (EUR), Swiss franc, British pound sterling (GBP), Japanese yen (JPY) and Russian ruble (RUB), among other currencies. Kitco’s data shows that gold priced in the ruble led the pack, up 15.3% since early January. Coming in second was gold priced in Mexican pesos rose 12.28% while gold in South African rand terms rose 9.48%, taking third place. The harder currencies, albeit lower, also saw significant gains. Based on the charts, spot gold priced in U.S. dollars rose a little over 5% in the last 30 days, while gold/EUR and gold/JPY saw gains of 4.32% and 5.54%, respectively. Meanwhile, gold/GBP and in franc terms posted gains of 7.18% and 6.87%, respectively. DXY ... update The US Dollar (DXY) broke key support at around 98.5 on Wednesday, and may now test crucial support at 96.5. There is equivalent resistance in GLD at $110.

BUFFET is Buying On Friday, in regulatory filings, Berkshire Hathaway announced that it bought 2.54 million shares of one of the world’s biggest oil refining companies. Phillips 66 has a market cap of $42.36 billion. According to media reports, Berkshire now owns 13.7% of the company, increasing its position from 10.8% in August. Phillips 66 is the sixth largest position in Berkshire’s portfolio. The release of Buffet’s increased position in the oil refinery company came on the same day Phillips 66 reported a 43% drop in profits and a 38% decline in revenue. Some analysts have noted that Buffet’s expanded role in Phillips 66 is a bet on oil prices, which comes as prices remain under significant pressure. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has struggled to hold gains above $30 a barrel, settling Monday’s session at $31.62 a barrel down, around 6% on the day. So far this year, WTI crude has fallen more than 16%.

( unfinished) TRANSPORT Adventures in Makati & Manila Now that I am mostly settled in my flat, I am making a greater effort to get out and explore the area I live in. So Sunday's adventure was to visit Rockwell center, a famous oasis of living popular among expats and others. And a place I had never visited before. I have long believed that the very best way to get to know a place is on foot. So I set took a Jepney to Landmark, and began my walking journey from there. I had to stop and ask for directions several times, but I had seen a peak of the top of one of the distinctive Rockwell Towers, so I thought I had a pretty good idea of where to go. So strong were my confident strides that I had a Middle Eastern looking guy, accompanied by two local girlfriends ask ME for directions. He wasn't wrong to do that. He and his shopping-hungry companions wanted to know the way to Landmark, and since I had just come from there, I gave him the way. I considered asking him the way to Rockwell, since he had come from that direction. But decided he probably came from one of the many tourist hotels off Burgos Street near Century City. This area is famous for the all night bars and other entertainments it contains. I wonder if The Donald knows that the fast-rising Trump Tower is in the middle of Makati's red-light district. It would be the first time that such an area was home to a cluster of modern new skyscrapers. I came up on Rockwell from the wrong direction. Instead of the inviting mall that I was expecting, the first thing I saw was a wall. I followed the wall for about a kilometer, and came to a fence. On the other side of the fence I could see a beautiful divided highway, fringed by manicured grass. This is not normal in Manila, neither are sidewalks without cracks, and without irregular surfaces – and that's what I saw on the other side of the fence. Just a quarter of a kilometer or so, and I came to an opening where the traffic could flow in. Then I could retrace my steps, but on the right side of the fence. The whole time I was walking, I asked myself: what was this reminding me of. Eventually, the answer came to me: Discovery Bay... but with cars, lots of cars. The comparison makes sense because of the artificiality of the place and the way it stands out from its environment. But the car difference is important. Rockwell is designed for people who drive, or take cabs. Not for those who walk. In fact, its secluded setting, with barriers everywhere all-but ensures that those who like to walk in a convenient and casual way will not like it. I texted one of my friends and told him, I was at Rockwell. He asked how I liked it, and I texted fhis back: Nice but expensive. And surrounding it is a wall so it is not accessible. It is a gilded cage, and not my cup of tea. - unquote -

Here's what new Rail lines can do in other cities. In London, there's a new underground rail line that runs through the center, and connects the East and West of London, with various stations in-between. It is pushing Up property values. This is what an efficient modern-design underground rail line can do in a city that really needs it Manila has various challenges: + Can the population afford a modern rail system? + Can the construction and design firms deal with the flooding challenges? + Will "skimmimg" destroy any potential that it would make money and be self-sustaining?

The Crossrail effect - per Dickens Yard email + 47% increase in Ealing property prices over the past two years, 28% in the last year alone. + 50% increase in house prices predicted over the ext 5 years within a 750m radius of Ealing Broadway Station. + GBP 5.5 Billion added to residential and commercial property values along the Crossrail route by 2021. + GBP 1 Billion in investment has been put into the improvement of Ealing's infrastructure, residential stock and retail space as part of the wider improvements associated with Crossrail.

Is this a sign of the end of London's long bull market in property? This article suggests that BTL landord's are struggling with low yields (falling rents?) I'm not really up to date, so it would be interesting to hear people's comments 'I've doubled my yield through letting ex-counci houses' By Olivia Rudgard | TheTelegraph – 17 hours ago How Matthew Bennett is tackling new buy-to-let tax: ex-local authority property Dwindling buy-to-let yields have scared off many investors, but there are ways of making the market work. ‘Kerb appeal’ might be a superficially attractive way of choosing a buy-to-let property, but in a difficult market, investors are finding a more pragmatic approach brings the largest returns. Yields in expensive areas such as London and the South West can be as low as 3pc, and are likely to be hit hard by new tax rules which mean landlords can no longer deduct the cost of their mortgage interest from their rental income before calculating their tax bill. • Nine ways to increase your buy-to-let profits • Buy-to-let warning: Immigration checks apply from February 1 Mapped: how buy-to-let will lose money in 91pc of regions by 2021 This is a particularly useful trend in urban areas where demand exceeds supply. It’s also a good prospect if your investment is more short-term. While the average landlord invests for a 10-15 year period, if you buy now and can achieve high yields in the short term, you could even sell before you are affected by the higher taxes on rental income in 2021. Local authority-built properties tend to accrue in value more slowly than others in the same area, so you might not make as much on the price itself, but the high rental yields make it a better option if you want to sell it on after a few years. == > https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ive-doubled-yield-letting-ex-190502680.html

LRT-1 to start 29-km track re-railing project in April BusinessWorld Online Edition - ‎7 hours ago‎ THE AYALA and Metro Pacific groups will replace 29 kilometers (km) of tracks at the Light Rail Transit Line 1 (LRT-1) in April and will finish by end 2017, saying this will minimize damage to train parts and increase travel speed.