drbubb

Maybe. If this latest measure doesn't work, there will be more. But I think that the HK market could levitate for another year or so. Example: My GF keeps saying she wants to buy another property. I get little traction, when I tell her to stick with the small and "cheap" property she has already.

Here's a pretty good thread with a diversity of opinions: Cooling Measures... for Hot Small flats https://hongkong.geoexpat.com/forum/155/thread314657.html (Guess who OTP might be? No prizes for right guesses)

Top Five HK Property Developers - By Units sold, 2014 Developer SHKP ------------- : 3,325 : 20.00 % Cheung Kong --- : 3,226 : 19.43 % Henderson Land : 2,711 : 16.32 % Sino Land ------- : 1,776 : 10.69 % New World ------ : 1,760 : 10.60 % ====== TOTAL : 16,603 : 77.04 % Smaller HK developers are gaining the muscle to compete with the Top Five, by teaming up with larger mainland developers, with more financial clout. The figures above are the results of tenders previously won.

VISIT FROM MANILA My friends from Ayalaland, Manila will be in town next Thursday (5 March) thru Saturday (7 March), and I am arranging some small group meetings in Kowloon and on HK Island. There is one particular property they are now suggesting in the Makati. If someone wants to join a small group meeting, and/or hear more about it, please me a PM (with your email), and I will provide more detail.

SWAP : from Wheelock to Hang Lung maybe? Symbol / Company--- : $-Close : change : percent / end2008: Chg>Now HK20- / Wheelock&Co. : $41.60 -$0.65 : -1.54% / $ 17.00 : +144.7% HK10- / HangLungGrp : $36.20 -$0.05 : -0.14% / $ 23.45 : + 54.4% HK101 / HangLungPrp : $22.00 /unch/ : -0.00% / $ 16.84 : + 30.6% Ratio-- / HK20toHK10 : R-1.149 ===== : ====== / R-0.7249 : +58.5% Ratio-- / HK20/HK101 : R-1.891 ===== : ====== / R-1.0095 : +87.3% HK10 vs HK20 ... update : HK10 : HK20 Starting in 2009, the Ratio of Wheelock to HK-101: was 1.0095, and is now at 1.891 - up 87.3% Against HK-10, it is up 58.5%

Wheelock hit a low of $31 in May, and recent;y touched $44 = that's +42% HK20 / Wheelock & Co. ... update : $41.60 -$0.65 : -1.54%

Will HK Investors "buy on News" on Monday ? HSI ... update Shanghai Comp. .. update The Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.32% turned down in the afternoon trading and ended 0.3% lower. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority was scheduled to hold a press meeting later in the day, amid expectations it might unveil policies to cool down real-estate markets. Major local developers mostly declined, as : Wharf Holdings Ltd.------------: $56.55 : -$1.70 : 0004, -2.92% tumbled 2.9%, both Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.: 121.60 : -$2.00 : 0016, -1.62% and Henderson Land Dev'l.--------: $53.00 : -$0.85 : 0012, -1.58% skidded 1.6%, and Wheelock & Co. Ltd.-----------: $41.60 : -$0.65 : 0020, -1.54% shed 1.5%. However, Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd.: 153.50 :+$0.50 : 0001, +0.33% , ...owned by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, rose 0.3%, after its 2014 net profit surged 53%. Its sister conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. 0013, +0.66% advanced 0.6%, as its earnings more than doubled in the last year. In other Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei Average NIK, +0.06% eked out a 0.1% gain to 18,797.94, a fresh 15-year high. The broader Topix index I0000, +0.14% also inched up 0.1%. The yen turned slightly stronger against the greenback, trading at ¥119.34 from ¥119.49 late Thursday in New York. On mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +0.36% rose further by 0.4% following a previous 2.2% rally. == > http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-stocks-retreat-with-property-developers-weak-2015-02-27?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

TOO HOT?? : "Home prices for small units rose 15%" from June - Dec.2014 - SCMP Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast : Clovell/ IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikSh. 02/22: 136.20 137.34: 15,679 : 19,670 : 24.101 : 22,500 /12,641: 11,792 : 14,180 : 16,398 : 22,439 : 6,573 : 13,319 : 02/15: 137.20 138.52: 15,672 : 19,661 : 24,091 : 22,491 /12,640: 11,791 : 14,193 : 16,412 : 22,459 : 6,570 : 13,932 : change -0.73% -0.85% Maybe people expected SOME measured to be imposed, we saw a drop rather than a surge in the Centaline index this week: [Centa-City Leading Index] 136.2 0.73 % For those who Sell-on-Rumor, and Buy-on-News, might find this announcement less shocking than it might have been, and start buying next week. New property cooling measures will see higher down payments for Hong Kong buyers Friday, 27 February, 2015 Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Norman Chan Tak-lam today announced measures to cool the city's property market after the prices reached what he called an all-time high. Speaking at a press conference on Friday afternoon, Chan said that residential properties under the HK$7 million mortgage ratio would be capped at 60 per cent having previously been set at 70 per cent - meaning prospective buyers would need bigger down payments. The HKMA also reduced the maximum debt servicing ratio - the monthly repayment of the borrower as a percentage of monthly income from 50 per cent to 40 per cent for borrowers who are buying a second residential property for self-use. == > http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1724867/hong-kong-finance-chief-pledges-hard-and-fast-property-market-cooling

New property cooling measures will see higher down payments for Hong Kong buyers Friday, 27 February, 2015 Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Norman Chan Tak-lam today announced measures to cool the city's property market after the prices reached what he called an all-time high. Speaking at a press conference on Friday afternoon, Chan said that residential properties under the HK$7 million mortgage ratio would be capped at 60 per cent having previously been set at 70 per cent - meaning prospective buyers would need bigger down payments. The HKMA also reduced the maximum debt servicing ratio - the monthly repayment of the borrower as a percentage of monthly income from 50 per cent to 40 per cent for borrowers who are buying a second residential property for self-use. Furthermore, as part of measures, the maximum debt servicing ratio - the monthly repayment of the borrower as a percentage of monthly income - will be cut from 50 per cent to 40 per cent for all non self use properties. Chan said: "The new measures may affect buying plans of first time buyers. But the authority always tries to strive to achieve a balance between the need to tighten mortgage financing to protect banking stability and the desire to minimise negative impact on genuine end-users, especially the first time buyers". Further measures to cool down the property market would come “hard and fast” when they are needed, Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah said earlier on Friday morning. == > http://www.scmp.com/...-market-cooling

Singapore investors seem to be finding compelling opportunities in the USA http://www.tnp.sg/news/investors-spore-pumped-almost-15-million-troubled-us-home-scheme#sthash.sk0UNzJI About 300 investors in Singapore pumped US$11 million (S$14.9 million) into CTL Global's plan to buy up distressed houses in the US. The New Paper on Sunday found out after contacting Ms Clara Tan, the company's founder. Ms Tan, who is in the US, spoke via Skype from the US city of Indianapolis, in Indiana, on Feb 6, saying: "We have about 100 investors who bought property in Memphis (in the US state of Tennessee) and 200 who bought in Indianapolis. Sent using ShareThis

ABOUT SELLING Before Completion (this Excerpt is from the SSC thread for The Rise): Q: Compared sa current prices, magkano ba prices ng studio/1BR before? A: 2.7-3.0M vs 3.8M now Q: Has anyone successfully negotiated amendments to their contract to sell? I am concerned about this clause: "11.2. The BUYER shall not sell, assign or transfer any of his rights, interests and obligations in and under this Contract to any person or entity without the prior written consent of the DEVELOPER. Any sale, assignment or transaction entered into by the BUYER in violation of this condition may, at the option of the DEVELOPER, be considered null and void, without prejudice to the right of the DEVELOPER to consider the BUYER in default under this Contract." Even though the developer is unlikely to unreasonably withhold consent to sell, I don't really like the idea of being legally bound to that clause. The unit is mine, I paid for it, and should be able to sell it whenever I wish. Thoughts? A: That clause is in effect during the "selling" and "buying" period of your relationship with the developer and terminates when the property becomes "yours" which begins when you are fully paid up. Note that it's called a CONTRACT TO *SELL*. It isn't YOURS if you haven't actually paid for it yet in full. A similar clause will be present in your mortgage contract with your bank if you plan on acquiring the property through a loan. Makes sense? > http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1723515&page=48

This project is being promoted in HK now

It sounds interesting - and the timing could be excellent. Assets are very cheap now, and with Keith Neumeyer managing the company they should have or be able to attract all the skills they need to succeed. It is not clear how much longer prices of Gold and Silver my stay cheap, but I imagine that KN would run the company in a way where they have some decent staying power Here's a long term chart for First Magestic (FR.t) - going back to even before the days where Mr Neumeyer began building up the company: FR.t / First Magestic ... update ==

Intel, misinfo, or imagination from Dr Mount Ten - The Mars Bases of the US Corporation are now terminated and what is left is controlled. I am told that on the next Full Moon the US Corporate moon Bases will surrender of die. Then comes Planet Earth. > http://drwilliammount.blogspot.hk/2014/10/dragon-family-now-runs-imf.html

PROJECT CAMELOT: JIM NICHOLS : MAGICIANS OF NASA "The Annunaki has worked hard to fight its way back into the Galactic War game... There's a constant war between Light and Dark here, and we are caught in the middle of it." (at 1:08 hours) "There's an occult connection to Mars." . . . JN: "Von Braun was obsessed with putting a Man on Mars" KC: "According to my sources, we did go there, and are still there... and have underground bases there." JN: "The story of the human race, is an effort to recreate the high-tech civilization of ATLANTIS."

FLOODING Concerns This photo shows the street in front of Skyland Plaza and Escobar, near The Rise. Note the difficulty of the car pushing through Malugay street The comment that goes with the photo says: "Can confirm that the flooding only reached ankle or gutter deep on this area (Yakal/Malugay Street). These photos were taken at around 11am on September 19 during Typhoon Mario. My cousin also bought a unit in this project." > http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1723515&page=40 Another flooding comment came up, in relation to Avida Towers, San Lorenzo " Went to Avida last Thursday to visit my unit. Unfortunately, it started to rain during the afternoon (circa 15:00 - 15:30) and caused the streets by Avida to become flooded (Chino Roces was knee-deep and Estacion was around 6 inches deep or so). The only good thing is that the water subsided after 0.5 - 1 hour after the rain stopped or became a drizzle as well as the flood never got in to the compound. But I can't even get to Waltermart taking the Chino Roces exit from Avida due to the flood. Hopefully, the government of Makati will do something about this." > http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=702832&page=37 Map: (On the opposite side of Makati) Avida Towers, San Lorenzo 2008 Description: Some info: -will be launched when they secure license to sell -two towers connected by a podium -looks like avida towers makai west and the columns legaspi village -it has different layouts esp. for 1 BR units -land area 8,070 sqm. -compared to makati west this has an outdoor gym -3 elevators -30 storey (28 residential floors) -it has commercial spaces -turnover of tower 1 around 2012 -joint venture with MGPI -22 units per floor (2 2BR, 12 1BR, and 8 Studio) -around P80,000 per sqm (subject to change) > http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=702832 Feb.13th update: http://www.avidaland.com/avidaland.php?type=5&id=2795

BOI - Board Of Investment route to investing in Thailand (skip foward to 4:30 mins) Chiang Mai Creative City GEW Seminar Uploaded on 3 Jan 2012 Chiang Mai Creative City Global Entrepreneurship Seminar (Creative Coffee). Talks by Sven Ernst of Buzzwoo and Sirisak Koshpasharin, Chairman of TACGA. == He spoke of a software investment that was set up, with 100% foreign investment

SOME HOME TRUTHS about Thailand > http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/print.php?id=13464 Excerpt: I believe that chances of success or survival in Thailand are better if you belong to one of the following groups. If you are rich and also sensible with your money, then go ahead. If an international company or similar offers you a high salaried job in Thailand, then fine. If you are retired or have steady funds from abroad and want to live modestly on those funds, go ahead, but watch yourself. And if you're a young traveler seeing the world, and you want to spend some time in Thailand teaching or whatever for the experience, then that's fine too. If you don't fall into one of these groups, then you should probably only consider Thailand for short holidays. Many middle aged westerners in particular (including professionals) like the idea of living there, having a business or making some money and "enjoying life" in Thailand. But very few make it... . . . Remember, in Thailand you'll never have any real business, legal or ownership rights. But Thais can probably go to your country and buy and own anything they can get their sticky hands on (because of the more tolerant business laws). To Thais, this is just further evidence of how clever they are, and how foolish are the foreigners who go to Thailand. Thailand is ruled by a comparatively small business and industrial elite, mostly from Chinese origins. They hold all the power and most of the wealth in the country. Although the king and royal family are revered by ordinary people, they have little real power in a 'parliamentary democracy'. The idea of western foreigners living in the country and achieving wealth and status through individual entrepreneurial efforts is seen as a threat to the hegemony that the elite has over the Thai underclass who form the bulk of the population. For this reason, it is never allowed to happen. . . . Don't make the mistake of thinking that as a foreigner (even with professional skills) you can "make a contribution" to Thailand, no matter how good your intentions or needed your skills may be. Your contribution will never be welcomed, only your money. There is a saying in Thai that captures it well: "farang roo mark mai dee" - foreigners who know too much [about Thailand] are no good. (related thinking) Long Term Life in Thailand Published on Feb 4, 2013 "No matter how well you speak Thai... even if you have a Thai wife, you will never be Thai... you don't have the same rights."

In Chiang Mai, Thailand, a Hub for Creative Types By NAOMI LINDT / FEB. 13, 2014 ... NY Times Photo Gallery SeeScape, a gallery/design shop/lounge. Credit Giulio Di Sturco for The New York Times Continue reading the main story Alongside its reputation for gilded, Buddha-filled temples and treks to hill tribe villages, Chiang Mai in northern Thailand has in recent years attracted creative types seeking a chilled-out alternative to Bangkok, 350 miles away. Nowhere is this more evident than Nimmanhaemin Road, a thoroughfare west of the old city center anchored by Chiang Mai University and known as Nimman. The area’s tranquil side streets, called sois, are home to quirky coffee shops, design boutiques and galleries. These, combined with boutique hotels like Artel Nimman, where guests access the ground floor by a slide, make Nimman an appealing base from which to explore the city. GALLERY SEESCAPE Tucked behind an ivy-covered facade, this gallery/design shop/lounge is a hub for the city’s young creatives. Catch exhibitions, performances and screenings by local artists, or pick up unusual handmade notebooks, key chains and figurines. 22/1 Nimmanhaemin Road, Soi 17; 66-86-114-2845; galleryseescape.com KOLAND At this Aladdin-meets-Communist-China boutique, you can find Mao buttons and rabbit-shaped paper lanterns, hand-sewn corduroy loafers bearing red stars, and mandarin-collared tops with billowy sleeves, along with colorful lamps and pillows. Nimmanhaemin Road, Soi 1; 66-81-241-2711 Photo Metal Studio. Credit Giulio Di Sturco for The New York Times METAL STUDIO In the footsteps of generations of Chiang Mai silversmiths, Sirilak Samanasak displays her nature-inspired gold, brass and silver earrings and necklaces at this whimsical contemporary shop, where metal birdcages and insects stand in for display cases. Nimmanhaemin Road, Soi 13; 66-83-208-8820; metal-studio-thailand.com KAO SOY NIMMAN In a lantern-hung courtyard, nine variations of Chiang Mai’s signature dish, khao soi, an egg noodle, curry-based soup, are served, from classic chicken thigh to pork sausage (from 50 baht, about $1.50 at 33 baht to the dollar). There are also many other northern specialties to sample, like sweet pork curry and chile dips with vegetables. Nimmanhaemin Road, Soi 7; 66-53-894-881 Photo Ristr8to Coffee. Credit Giulio Di Sturco for The New York Times RISTR8TO COFFEE Winner of several coffee-making awards in Australia, Arnon Thitiprasert, known as Tong, returned to his native Thailand in 2011 to open this exposed-brick and wood caffeine paradise, where Chiang Mai’s young and hip charge up on single-origin blends and silky “flat whites,” similar to lattes, adorned with hearts and phoenixes. 15/3 Nimmanhaemin Road; 66-53-215-278; ristr8to-coffee-chiangmai.com

Dark Side of the Mars - Documentary 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntgytKFxH5w Published on Jan 10, 2015 Dark Side of the Mars - Documentary 2015

Somebody on SSC had trouble believing that an Avida flat could be priced at more than PHP 20 mn / 44 = USD 454 k It seems it is true, for this new property on 8th Avenue in BGC: Avida - The Montane current pricing is 5.2M - 20.2Mn > http://www.avidaland.com/condominium...ty/the-montane Available units for sale: 1 Bedroom unit: 37 sq. m. 2 Bedroom unit: 55 / 65 sq. m. 3 Bedroom unit: 84 sq. m. 2 Bedroom Bi-level unit: 80 sq. m. 3 Bedroom Loft: 106 / 121 sq. m. 4 Bedroom Loft: 136 sq. m. Price Range: Php5.2-20.2M PHP 20,200k / 136 Sqm = 148.5 k per SqM Inspiring Lives at 25 Years Avida's mission is to make affordable dream communities a reality for middle income Filipinos. With 25 years of developing and enriching communities, Avida has become a springboard for creating life's possibilities and opportunities. Avida prides itself with providing sure, secure, and sensible developments. More than just the basics, it provides lifestyle essentials: quality and intuitive designs that are grounded on what enriches people's lifestyles. With the belief that inspired living means happier living, Avida's vision is to inspire and affect eveyday moments and to portray the Avida lifestyle as one that inspires endless possibilities. > http://www.avidaland.com/news/2015-01-23/inspiring-lives-at-25-years Avida's target customer range must have expanded somehow

Global shale revolution dismissed and demand for OPEC Oil forecast to rise BP forecasts dramatic shift in crude trade patterns followed by Middle East recovery + BP forecasts rapid growth of "tight" oil supplies, or shale, particularly in the US until 2020 + But the pace of growth in shale production will slow, and focus will shift back to M.E. oil + The US is likely to become self-sufficient in oil by the 2030's + Over time, the oil market will grow out of its present weakness, and Global Demand is projected to rise by 37 per cent from 2013 to 2035, that's 1.4% a year + By 2030, demand for OPEC crude should exceed the historical high of 32m b/d from 2007 2030?? That's a long, long time. I expect many surprises before then

Top Philippines Listed Developers Developer: Capex-Php: USD-2015 Ayala land : PHP100 bn : US$ 2.2 bn SM Prime. : PHP 60. bn : US$ 1.3 bn Megaworld: PHP 46. bn : US$ 1.0 bn Vista Land : PHP 23. bn : US$ 0.5 bn Filinvest -- : PHP 23. bn : US$ 0.5 bn Robinsons : PHP 17. bn : US$ 0.4 bn AVERAGE RENTS etc. Location Q3-14 : QonQ : CapRt. : Rent - Price 60m : per SM Makati. : 773.0 : + 0.6 % : 6.8 % : 46.6k : 8.18 mn : 136.4k BGC--- : 880.6 : + 0.7 % : 6.3 % : 52.8k : 10.1 mn : 167.7k Ortigas : 700.6 : + 0.8 % : 5.7 % : 42.0k : 8.85 mn : 147.5k Note: Developer focus shifting from luxury to low end BGC will almost double in supply in 5 years All sectors benefitting from current economic growth Local developers very cash rich, and hoarding cash ========== Presentation : http://www.slideshare.net/kmcmaggroup/2014-real-estate-market-update-and-2015-forecast-philippine-real-estate Ayalaland replaced Megaworld as the top developer (MW was at 2012): MANILA, Philippines - Upscale property developer Megaworld Corp. emerged as the leading residential condominium developer in the Philippines for over a decade with 16 percent of the market, results of a recent study by real estate advisory firm CB Richard Ellis showed. Megaworld has rolled out the most number of residential condominium units during the 12-year period from 2000 to 2011, totaling more than 40,000 units, the study noted. The units account for an estimated total aggregate saleable area of about 1.9 million square meters or 16 percent of the market, according to CBRE. The figures reinforce Megaworld’s continued leadership in the tightly-contested condominium market, it pointed out. > (Jan.2012) : http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1376381&page=3

(important in the long term?) OIL DISCOVERIES - Decline to 20-year Low Decline in volumes found last year points to supply challenges in 2020s + The lowest level since at least 1995 + May even turn out to be the worst year since 1952 + The slowdown was particularly pronounced for Oil, and the actual level of discoveries, was just 16bn barrels + Interestingly, the number of exploration wells drilled was down just 1%

London's Lead is falling down Prime reasons to Quit London - FT, 2/15/2015 The family friendly towns and cities attracting buyers from the capital... Many people are choosing to flee the capital for small, more family friendly cities In a report entitled, "new Prime Urban markets", Knight Frank highlighted four locations they think will be worthy of Special attention. (What GBP 1 million can buy you in...): + Oxford: A 3BR, semi-detached house in Jericho, near the city centre + Cheltenham: A 5BR, Regency townhouse in the centre + Bristol: A 4BR, Edwardian house in Clifton, an affluent suburb + Bath: A pretty six BR townhouse, a short walk from the city centre What they're aiming for: "The Best of both worlds, (a cheaper price, like 40-50% cheaper and) ... you can be in the centre of town and have the buzz of being in London, with coffee shops and restaurants, and in 10 minutes you're walking through a field overlooking and empty valley" (or some other non-urban experience you may favor.) "They are all very different... But they have similar drivers: good schools, a good cultural offer, and attractive period housing - and that's what sets them apart." The price shift has already started, with three of these areas outperforming London: + Prime Central London : +5.1% + Bath : +5.0% + Oxford : +6.1% + Bristol and Cheltenham, both: +6.8%