drbubb

This could prove to be an excellent call, C.S. ! BDEV / Barratt is also showing signs of weakness ... update

Sure. But I have seen most of the "spin" has staked up on the Bearish side in recent months. Though I acknowledge it may be the reverse, with media spin most commonly on the "Bullish" side in a rising market.

(I am giving Ed a chance to decide whether or not he was to be an advocate of what has been called an "intelligent" chatboard or not): Posted by Ed (11 mins ago) I am sure the Standard and SCMP journalists would also say they are backing up their stories with facts.... And no doubt they would say your facts are incorrect or cherry picked.... So I continue to post the articles --- and let our audience make up their own minds. Posted by OffThePeak (6 mins ago) Kindly READ THE DETAILS that I reported above. And Why not comment on the specific reporting that I have found irritating. (?) The pattern showing bearish spin in The Standard and )even in the SCMP) has been pretty clear in recent months IMO. Some have said those two new organs have tended to "talk up" the market when it is rising (ie the press tends to Talk UP prices in a Bull Market, and Talk DOWN prices in a Bear Market, reinforcing whatever trend may be underway.) I think the idea of the Press reinforcing whatever trend may be underway, is pretty interesting. So Let's DISCUSS SPIN HERE TOO I do think that it is important for intelligent readers on an intelligent chatboard to stay aware of the spin of the media (whatever side it might come on), and make that "spin" a subject of commentary - along with the State of the market itself

Ed is being very short-sighted imho. OTP has been the most active poster on the AX property threads for some time. If "he" stops posting on AX... and instead only posts here, I wonder how many of the AX readers might start coming here, to see less spin-ridden comments on the HK property market? Why should people who want a balanced take on the HK property markets want to read comments only from Bears, who have the main purpose of talking the market down?

Ed, on AX, seems to be endorsing "spin" in the press. It is really beginning to p/ss me off. And I may not be posting there much longer =================================== Posted by OffThePeak (2 hrs ago) "HK Developers Cutting Prices" Ed, that's a pretty misleading title - to a misleading article. Here's a comment on it that I had posted elsewhere: == QUOTE == Is the Press trying to talk the market down? Why is that? Here's are some comments from today's Standard: " Most flats were sold with 3-7 percent price cuts. A 451-square-foot flat at City One changed hands for HK$4.7 million after a HK$305,000 price cut. Another flat at Tai Koo Shing was sold after a HK$400,000 price cut, with area prices at HK$12,337 per sq ft. More primary projects are expected to be offered this month. Cheung Kong Holdings' (0001) Trinity Towers at Cheung Sha Wan launches its last batch of 93 units priced between HK$9,106 and HK$15,316, up 1 percent from the previous batches..." > http://www.thestanda...3332&con_type=1 == In an illiquid market with few transactions, I would expect Sellers to Cut asking prices to get sales done. Buyers are also raising bids to get transactions done - but we are never told : "The buyer raised his bid by $200,000, and the Seller lowered their offer by $200,000, to get a transaction done." In fact, this is a normal pattern in negotiations, with both sides moving. The press is reporting this in a way designed to leave the impression that prices are falling. If they are, it is a very gentle process, as the Centaline indices reveal. What the article does NOT report, is that: "Tai Koo Shing ... area prices at HK$12,337 per sq ft" ... is simply NOT accurate. The last price reported for TKS in Centaline was HK$11,392 - on 3/30/2014 And so if that $12,337 was Transaction price, it was 8.3% ABOVE market, as per the Centaline Index. That's a very different picture than The Standard is painting... WHY do they "spin" transactions in a negative way? Why are they trying to manipulate the market ?? ==================================== Posted by Ed (2 hrs ago) I don't see any need to manipulate the market - at the end of the day it was suggested many months ago on this forum that punitive taxes which chased the PRC buyers out of the market -- the big supply in the pipeline --- and now the credit crunch in China --- would put downward pressure on prices. And that appears to be what is happening - and that appears to be what is being reported... Keep in mind the media including the SCMP (whose property arm - Kerry Props) is heavily involved in the market And the cartels in HK are heavily weighted in property (Swire, Cheung Kong) and would not be very happy to see the media attempting to punish their assets (remember these guys have retail holdings and they might pull ads from media that they thought were conspiring against them) So my question is - why would they try to talk it down? What does the Standard, SCMP and other media gain? ==================================== Posted by Maar (52 mins ago) " So my question is - why would they try to talk it down? What does the Standard, SCMP and other media gain?" They gain transactions. If the prices are high and non-changing, nobody buys and sells. If the prices are dropping, people buy and people sell. If there are trades, more people will buy new properties as well (a sale for 5% cheaper is better than no sale at all). Banks also benefit from trades, as does the government. Everybody benefits, and for all of them, a sale 5% cheaper is better than no sale at all. ==================================== Posted by Ed (42 mins ago) I don't think the media need to talk the market down - it is already falling. Surely government measures are what impact the market far more than media sentiment. I cannot see how this market does not drop when 40%+ of the previous buyers of new properties (i.e. PRC buyers) have exited the market due to punitive taxes - and record numbers of new apartments are under construction I could see them talking it up - surely Kerry Properties would want the SCMP to talk the market up at all times (unless it was actually dropping and they had no choice if they wanted to maintain crediblity) - the last thing Kerry wants is a crashing market. How is Kerry any different than the people on this forum complaining that the media is talking the market down? They don't want that to happen either --- one difference - they own the media.... This sounds like people long property looking for someone to blame for falling prices.... ==================================== Posted by OffThePeak (11 mins ago) "They gain transactions. If the prices are high and non-changing, nobody buys and sells. If the prices are dropping, people buy and people sell." - Maar Well. I don't think the reason that transactions have dried up in the secondary market is because of the high prices. It is because of the much higher transaction costs: 15% BSD, 2X DSD, etc. For instance, if someone wants to sell and buy a bigger place, they are stuck with a much higher "switching" cost than they had before. Of course, you may argue that the govt will cut these taxes when prices fall another 10-20%, and I suppose that is true. Maybe that's what many Buyers and Sellers, and even the media want to see: a further drop, so that the govt can scrap the very high transaction taxes. Meantime, the only reasonably "healthy" part of the market, is the new property part, where developers have cut prices somewhat, and they are being very clever about how they announce their discounts. The bank and media are playing along with this: + Banks - By lending against (higher) actual sales prices of new property, while refusing to lend against actual sales prices in the secondary market, and putting their bank valuations well BELOW last done, in many cases. + Media - By talking down the secondary market while exaggerating the size of discounts on new properties. This way, buyers of new properties think they are getting a bargain, and they don't bother to run the numbers carefully enough to find the facts ==================================== Posted by OffThePeak (3 mins ago) "This sounds like people long property looking for someone to blame for falling prices...." Bullfeathers, Ed. I am using facts to back up my arguments, and pointing out the spin and misinformation in the press. You seem to want to endorse the spin. Do you want readers on AX to be misinformed? ====================================

Is the Press trying to talk the market down? Why is that? Here's are some comments from today's Standard: " Most flats were sold with 3-7 percent price cuts. A 451-square-foot flat at City One changed hands for HK$4.7 million after a HK$305,000 price cut. Another flat at Tai Koo Shing was sold after a HK$400,000 price cut, with area prices at HK$12,337 per sq ft. More primary projects are expected to be offered this month. Cheung Kong Holdings' (0001) Trinity Towers at Cheung Sha Wan launches its last batch of 93 units priced between HK$9,106 and HK$15,316, up 1 percent from the previous batches..." > http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=30&art_id=144276&sid=41993332&con_type=1 == In an illiquid market with few transactions, I would expect Sellers to Cut asking prices to get sales done. Buyers are also raising bids to get transactions done - but we are never told : "The buyer raised his bid by $200,000, and the Seller lowered their offer by $200,000, to get a transaction done." In fact, this is a normal pattern in negotiations, with both sides moving. The press is reporting this in a way designed to leave the impression that prices are falling. If they are, it is a very gentle process, as the Centaline indices reveal. What the article does NOT report, is that: "Tai Koo Shing ... area prices at HK$12,337 per sq ft" ... is simply NOT accurate. The last price reported for TKS in Centaline was HK$11,392 - on 3/30/2014 And so if that was Transaction price, it was 8.3% over market, as per the Centaline Index. That's a very different picture than The Standard is painting... WHY? Why are they trying to manipulate the market ??

Is the Press trying to talk the market down? Why is that? (Duplicate post) Here's are some comments from today's Standard: " Most flats were sold with 3-7 percent price cuts. A 451-square-foot flat at City One changed hands for HK$4.7 million after a HK$305,000 price cut. Another flat at Tai Koo Shing was sold after a HK$400,000 price cut, with area prices at HK$12,337 per sq ft. More primary projects are expected to be offered this month. Cheung Kong Holdings' (0001) Trinity Towers at Cheung Sha Wan launches its last batch of 93 units priced between HK$9,106 and HK$15,316, up 1 percent from the previous batches..." > http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=30&art_id=144276&sid=41993332&con_type=1 == In an illiquid market with few transactions, I would expect Sellers to Cut asking prices to get sales done. Buyers are also raising bids to get transactions done - but we are never told : "The buyer raised his bid by $200,000, and the Seller lowered their offer by $200,000, to get a transaction done." In fact, this is a normal pattern in negotiations, with both sides moving. The press is reporting this in a way designed to leave the impression that prices are falling. If they are, it is a very gentle process, as the Centaline indices reveal. What the article does NOT report, is that: "Tai Koo Shing ... area prices at HK$12,337 per sq ft" ... is simply NOT accurate. The last price reported for TKS in Centaline was HK$11,392 - on 3/30/2014 And so if that was Transaction price, it was 8.3% over market, as per the Centaline Index. That's a very different picture than The Standard is painting... WHY? Why are they trying to manipulate the market ??

Anyone for a London crack den? (many may be for sale soon) The Week: London House price bubble. Is it time to leave the capital? I just loved this quote. 'The upshot, according to developer David Galman of Galliard Homes, is that : even "a grotty studio of crack-den quality" costs over £1m in Mayfair.'. THE rumbles of anxiety over London's booming property market are getting louder, says Katie Allen in The Guardian. Against a backdrop of soaring demand and reports of mobbed viewings, housebuyers are now paying more than 99 per cent of asking prices, according to Hometrack. That's "the highest proportion seen for a decade". With the cost of the average property in the capital approaching £500,000, the gap between London and non-London property prices is now at its widest ever. Last week, the Bank of England warned that almost one buyer in five is taking out a "high income-multiple" loan in a desperate scrabble to get on the ladder before it is lifted completely out of their reach. There are fears of an unsustainable bubble. Sound of the suburbs In central London, where prices (up 13.1 per cent year-on-year) are now beyond "all but the very wealthy", demand is still being stoked by foreign buyers, says The Sunday Times. The upshot, according to developer David Galman of Galliard Homes, is that even "a grotty studio of crack-den quality" costs over £1m in Mayfair. Some suggest prices may double to £10,000 per square foot within five years. As the billionaires continue to maintain a stranglehold over prime central London, the merely wealthy "are being pushed out to the leafy streets of Zone 2" – and further. The latest Land Registry figures show that the hotspots with the highest house-price growth over the past year are Hackney (up 21 per cent) and Waltham Forest (up 20.1 per cent). Agents in popular migratory cities such as Oxford and Cambridge also report "a rampant market". Moving out Hometrack's historic data suggests that when the gap between asking and agreed prices is this narrow, it's a reliable sign that prices are about to peak. So if you live in London, do yourself a favour, says Merryn Somerset Webb on MoneyWeek.com. Bank your "vast gains" and move out... Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/prosper/58009/london-house-price-bubble-it-time-quit-capital#ixzz2y5cy4kQg

"There's a thread about LONDON versus Rest of UK elsewhere on GEI" 1 / http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17737&page=1 2 / http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17441

HK-1200: $3.91 -0.16 : -3.93% I reckon you will have a chance to buy at near $3.50 or lower within 2014. But I will admit I am probably wrong if it breaks out to a nw high on rising volume

Midland's Chairman may have Bought near the Top = =

Some HK Properties INSIDERS are Bullish 1 / Their salaries are rising fast. Today's Standard says that Property Professionals (surveyors and architects) in HK, enjoyed a salary rise of 9.2 percent, based on 1,525 interviews between Nov.2013, and January. Salary growth lagged Malaysia (11%), but was in line with Singapore (9%), and ahead of China (7%.) But the average salary in HK (HK$771,646) lagged behind China (HK$1.08 million0, and Singapore (HK$979,500.) HK-1200 / Midland Holdings ... Weekly-5yrs : Wk-10yrs : 2 / Midland Holdings Chairman boosting stake. Freddie Wong Kin-yip bought 1.49 million shares at HK$4.24, boosting his stake, from 17.8 percent to 18.01 percent

Hong Kong's "To-CL INDEX" RATIOS == Location : 3/23/14: R-PAv : End.'13: Ratio-- / End.'12: Ratio-- / End.'11: Ratio-- / Aver. ====== Index---- : 118.42 :====== : 119.07 :====== / 115.78 :====== / $96.68 :====== / '11-13 ParkAve. : 11,478 : 97.93x : 12,325 : 103.5x / 11,161 : 96.40x / 10,147 : 105.0x / 101.7x TaikooSh : 11,681 : 98.64x : 10,936 : 91.85x / 11,665 : 100.8x / $9,877 : 102.2x / 98.28x Robin Pl. : 13,721 : 115.9x : 14,407 : 121.0x / 14,985 : 129.4x / 14,091 : 145.7x / 132.0x ZenithW. : 13,052 : 110.2x : 12,715 : 106.8x / 14,002 : 120.9x / 11,798 : 122.0x / 116.7x Sorrento : 15,779 : 133.2x : 17,849 : 149.9x / 16,316 : 140.9x / 13,258 : 137.1x / 142.6x Pk.Island : $6,303 : 53.22x : $6,529 : 54.83x / $6,585 : 56.88x / $5,645 : 58.39x / 56.70x CarCoast : $5,484 : 46.31x : $5,768 : 48.44x / $6,053 : 52.28x / $4,610 : 47.68x / 49.47x Kingswod.: $4,586 : 38.71x : $4,502 : 37.81x / $4,282 : 36.98x / $4,035 : 41.74x / 38.84x ====== Park Avenue and Taikoo Shing seem to hover at "around 100x" times the Index ParkAve. : 11,478 : 97.93x : TaikooSh: 11,681 : 101.8% : Robin Pl. : 13,721 : 119.5% : ZenithW. : 13,052 : 113.7% : Sorrento : 15,779 : 137.5% : Pk.Island : $6,303 : 53.22x : CarCoast : $5,484 : 47.78% :: ======= > Index-- : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm > History : http://202.72.14.52/p2/cci/SearchHistory.aspx > Pk.Island http://hk.centadata.com/tfs_centadata/Pih2Sln/TransactionHistory.aspx?type=1&code=WDPPWBPXPB&cuntcode=WDPPWBPXPBPPWA&fun=PastTran&ci=en-us

How do you do that when prices are so high, only a minority can afford to buy? If you add govt-gteed-debt, it just enslaves people, with debts they can barely afford

Has the HK property market stabilized: http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2014-04-01/has-hong-kong-s-property-market-stabilized (In Edit: I just watched it) The chinese guy (xx) says: "Prices are stable, but when there is a sale it is 10-15% lower," Where in heavens name does he live - Mid-levels? He should get out more! The HK market is not frigging Mid-levels, for goodness sakes. And in the lower price market, below $4-5 Million, it is truly stable, with possibly as many sales ABOVE 1-2 years ago, as below. At least that is what I am seeing where I live. Why do they put bananas like Mr.X on Bloomberg? To make CYL feel good?

TICKET TO RIDE (Ferries) / and Housing Society Rents - now that much dearer Once "cheap" locations now more expensive to reach - Like Lantau, Lamma, Cheung Chau... etc No. Point to Hung Hom: up, from HK $5.50 to $6.50 Central to Mui Wo: up by 70 cents, and $1.10, depending on the day of week + Monthly passes up from HK $507.80 to $532.00 : + 4.76% Meantime, the rents of 20 estates under the Housing Society, went up by 8 percent > HK Standard, pg. 7 the point is cost of living in "cheaper" accommodation are rising fast. Meantime: 1 / The Standard is talking about a "Baby step in Home Policy easing", As: CYL has seemed to back away from the "HK Property for HK people" policy, as it has become evident that many property prices have eased 2 / Nan Fung's CEO is interviewed in the SCMP, Talking about the challenge of rising build costs, which are up from HK$1,000 to HK$3,000 psf

Yes, HK-12 now over $47 - nice one! If it continues we may get a pop in HK property prices too. (would that put "egg" on the faces of the AX Bears? let's see) == == TICKET TO RIDE (Ferries) / and Housing Society Rents - now that much dearer Once "cheap" locations now more expensive to reach - Like Lantau, Lamma, Cheung Chau... etc No. Point to Hung Hom: up, from HK $5.50 to $6.50 Central to Mui Wo: up by 70 cents, and $1.10, depending on the day of week + Monthly passes up from HK $507.80 to $532.00 : + 4.76% Meantime, the rents of 20 estates under the Housing Society, went up by 8 percent > HK Standard, pg. 7 the point is cost of living in "cheaper" accommodation are rising fast. Meantime: 1 / The Standard is talking about a "Baby step in Home Policy easing", As: CYL has seemed to back away from the "HK Property for HK people" policy, as it has become evident that many property prices have eased 2 / Nan Fung's CEO is interviewed in the SCMP, Talking about the challenge of rising build costs, which are up from HK$1,000 to HK$3,000 psf

Cheung Kong's Trinity Towers (in Cheung Sha Wan) - has sold very well The first batch of 216 flats sold out quickly thanks to "a low pricing strategy" + Supposedly at 10% below other developments in the district + 80% of the buyers were end-users + There were 5,200 registrations received prior to the sale + PRICES for 1-BR and 3-BR flats (362 - 745 sf. net) were "as little as HK$8,400" per sf, That's HK $3.26 million, with the discounts of up to 11.75 percent + The next round of 93 flats, will be sold at an average of HK$10,323 psf (after discount), or HK $4.03 million - HK $8.5 million Here are two of the Four Little Dragons - a nearby project xx Property----- : Price psf, Gr. / ===== Banyan Gdn.: HK$8,446.36 / Liberte ------ : HK$8,477.44 / ===== At $10,323 psf, Net - this could be a little cheaper. But how good is the location? It will be interesting to see how these sales impact prices at Four Little Dragons If someone else can comment on the location, that would be good. I went by it yesterday in a bus, and my quick reflection was : This Location is LESS Good than 4-LD's. Comments?

Hong Kong's "To/ParkAve." RATIOS == Location : 3/23/14: R-PAv. : End.'13 : Ratio--- / End.'12 : Ratio--- / End.'11 : Ratio--- / ====== Index---- : 118.42 : ====== : 119.07 : ====== / 115.78 : ====== / $96.68 : ====== / ParkAve. : 11,478 : 100.0% : 12,325 : 100.0% / 11,161 : 100.0% / 10,147 : 100.0% / TaikooSh: 11,681 : 101.8% : 10,936 : 88.73% / 11,665 : 104.5% / $9,877 : 97.34% / Robin Pl. : 13,721 : 119.5% : 14,407 : 116.9% / 14,985 : 134.3% / 14,091 : 138.9% / ZenithW. : 13,052 : 113.7% : 12,715 : 103.2% / 14,002 : 125.5% / 11,798 : 116.3% / Sorrento : 15,779 : 137.5% : 17,849 : 144.8% / 16,316 : 146.2% / 13,258 : 130.7% / Pk.Island : $6,303 : 54.91% : $6,529 : 52.97% / $6,585 : 59.00% / $5,645 : 55.63% / CarCoast : $5,484 : 47.78% : $5,768 : 46.80% / $6,053 : 54.23% / $4,610 : 45.43% / Kingswod : $4,586 : 39.95% : $4,502 : 36.53% / $4,282 : 38.37% / $4,035 : 39.77% / ====== ParkAve. : 11,478 : 100.0% : TaikooSh: 11,681 : 101.8% : Robin Pl. : 13,721 : 119.5% : ZenithW. : 13,052 : 113.7% : Sorrento : 15,779 : 137.5% : Pk.Island : $6,303 : 54.91% : CarCoast : $5,484 : 47.78% :: ======= > Index-- : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm > History : http://202.72.14.52/p2/cci/SearchHistory.aspx > Pk.Island http://hk.centadata.com/tfs_centadata/Pih2Sln/TransactionHistory.aspx?type=1&code=WDPPWBPXPB&cuntcode=WDPPWBPXPBPPWA&fun=PastTran&ci=en-us

"I am very glad to ignore them..." I agree. Unfortunately, there seem to be some media outlets and websites that are so eager to see lower prices, that all they seem to be able to do is try to talk the market lower. I think I could make a decent Bearish argument, but I do not hear it on those sites, nor do I see it in this chart: In my chart world, I would expect a chart like this to make (at least) one new high, as in 1997. I am not promising that, but I think it is a reasonable expectation

Still TALK-Talk, but not much FALL-fall (the Talk): Owners look for quick exit (scoff! scoff! or do they? - drB.) Homeowners are looking to offload flats through price cuts and even taking losses - of more than HK$2.5 million in one case - after the US Federal Reserve signaled interest rates may rise by the middle of next year. Rate hikes will put further pressure on the local property market. "Sellers are likely to expand their price cuts to more than 10-15 percent in the near future following the possible interest rate hikes, along with other discouraging factors including developers' aggressive pricing and property curbs," said Louis Chan Wing-kit, chief executive of the residential division at Centaline Property Agency. (the Index): http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm Louie, I know it makes your agents' jobs easier with bearish talk like that. But let's do a "reality check", shall we ? Centaline : 118.42 + 0.14% (week ended 2014/03/23): Maybe when they see the sideways movement, would-be-sellers will say: "Forget that Talk, Mr. Agent, I won't sell ! It's not my job to make money for the g--d--m-d property agents!" Personally, I am quite happy to stay in my property - I need to live somewhere after all ! If I sold, and put the money in the bank, I would have to rent, while earning a pittance on the cash. And others I know (who are investors) are quite happy to bank a nice 4% return. (There's no sign of falling rents where we are. And in a sideways market like we are actually seeing, the income exceeds the loss - in areas outside the Luxury sector, where rents are falling.) Let some more agents go, Mr Chan, if you want to play this game.

I plan to be in the Philippines (again) in late April and will ask about the proposed new airport

There's another Key support level - at the 89d / 76d MA level Painful to see this breaking down so easily, when the USD is still in stress-land

(why is it that people running for office will not speak sense - like THIS?): Mr Posen said: "I find this whole initiative largely mistaken by the Treasury." The first stage of Help to Buy was recently extended until 2020. "The idea of pumping up credit for middle to upper-middle class people to spend more on housing, when people have already spent too much on housing, is dysfunctional," Mr Posen told BBC Radio 5 live's Wake Up to Money programme. "We need a distinction between housing policy and mortgage policy, and we need affordable housing in the great cities of the North. "London is now semi-detached from the rest of the country. There's a perception that it's just pockets in Kensington or Chelsea, but increasingly the homes in zone two or zone three [of the London Underground map] are going out of the price range of normal people." 'Badly mistaken' He also said the Bank of England needed to change its "culture of trust", and get tougher with the UK's biggest banks. === === Tougher? Yeah! hit them with a Brick! Or at least some sensible legislation

(By OTP on AX): Index up about +1% on the Week': Week : CCLI : CMMI : ==== . . 03/16: 118.25 117.60: 03/09: 117.18 116.29: ==== And not a peep from the Bears posting here. That wipes out 1/3 of the 3% drop since the Nov.2013 high. (Yeah, it was higher than that earlier in 2013.) I am not changing my mildly bearish view, but I do think this may be showing that the HK property market is not collapsing as quickly as they were telling you it was.