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EXCERPT: It’s going to be a lot trickier to get a mortgage In 2009 Britain’s financial watchdog (now the Financial Conduct Authority) concluded in a discussion paper that the mortgage market needed reform. It eventually published new rules – the Mortgage Market Review (MMR) – in 2012. These rules come into effect from tomorrow. The big change is that lenders will have to make absolutely sure that a borrower can afford the loan. Details of what exactly counts as ‘affordability’ are deliberately vague. But the regulator has given guidance, which involves looking at spending patterns and sources of income. There is also an obligation to ‘stress test’ the loan. In other words, the borrower will need to be able to afford payments even if interest rates rise. The upshot is that most people will find getting a mortgage trickier. == == Maybe ~ That could be why BDEV has been weakening: = =

Some Valuations (along Tung Chung Line) are testing the bottom of an important Price Channel = =

The Debt of the Philippines - A positive Surprise ? I have just returned from a trip to the Philippines. I have some comments to share on various matters later. But first, I want to record this item that I picked up yesterday in the Sat. May 3rd version of the Philippines Star, Business section: Debt-to-GDP Ratio eases to 39.2% in '13 - pg. B-1 Excerpts: === + From 40.6 percent in 2012 + Down from 78.1 percent during the Asian Financial Crisis (1997) - that's a 38.9 percent fall in 16 years, or an average drop of 2.4% (of GDP) a year, an amazing record + The government has been redenominating debt away from foreign currencies, and it is now only 1.95 trillion PHP or 34.3 perecent of the total outstanduing debt. + A decrease of local govt debt from P73.4 billion to P71 billion helped the total Compare: + US : 101.5 percent in 2013 + UK : 88.1 percent in Q1-2013

SOME TIPS - from AsiaX. OTP : we have been hearing about how rates would rise "soon" for a long time. Someone who bought carefully a year or two ago, may be ahead by 5-10%, while also enjoying the fact that a nice little chunk of the debt has been repaid. And this is why buyers go on buying, despite all the Bearish "hum" in the background J-- (2 hrs ago) And indeed you are correct. I am eyeing a flat in Shatin, 20% cheaper than other flats. If you look out there are cheaper flats that can be had (as always). Unless there is a major crash, it still makes sense to buy, if the price is right. OTP: Why cheaper? There is usually a reason. And a 20% discount is large. My suggestions now would be: + Buy only properties under $4-5 Million, unless it is for "own use", and ideal for your requirements + Try to get something that will benefit from future transport developments, where the transport upgrades are not yet fully priced in + Do not favor HK Island over the rest of HK, unless you have a very good reason of your own (schools or whatever) + Spend plenty of time with "boots on ground" to really get to know the area, and the advantages (or disadvantages) of living there. Look for signs of gentrification, and places where gentrification might improved the neighborhood. (I like new areas on the edge of old areas; or old areas that will benefit from new transportation links)

Is Hong Kong having a Property Bubble? (Here's how this question was answered elsewhere) The articles I have seen about HK are not well informed Each year that goes by, more debt is repaid Property prices are high, but the amount of Equity in this place is high too. Some of it is leaking out to places with a REAL bubble: places like London. But I think the "stall" in privces here, just means the market gets a little bit more resilient every month, as more debt is paid down Of course, a jump in interest rates here could push prices down. But we are not seeing that. And instead the market goes sideways, some new properties get bought, and the bigger picture is debt is reducing, year-by-year, month-by-month. Incomes rise somewhat. Rents may rise too. And the debt slowly reduces, so long as the number of new flats does not increase the aggregate debt. I would like to see some actual figures on these dynamics. But I do not see the action here that I would expect to see in a true bubble: High debt, much speculative excess, widely bullish assumptions. These are missing in HK, despite what the foreign pundits may be writing about HK, while they mostly ignore a true bubble in London and some other places.

LOWER PRICES - Who gains ? Jeremy01 (1 hr ago) wrote on the previous thread: "The press is helping to push the prices down. They also want more transactions, because everybody benefits from more transactions: the agents, the banks, the government, etc." ??? "Everyone" gains? Not quiet true. The sellers, taking less for their flats do not benefit. Will the agents agree to take lower commissions, the banks to take a lower interest spread, and the government to take less tax - To make this lower price magic happen? I think not. I find it funny that people seem to think: Ah, well, the sellers should just take less, so all these others with vested interests can benefit. Don't forget: The market has slowed because of New Taxes being imposed, to "slow" the market. That slowing, has already damaged the opportunities for sellers, and now you want them to take a bigger haircut too? This seems unfair. I would like to have the government say something about when the tax will be removed. If they said something like: We will cut the BSD from 15% to 10% when the Centaline Index falls 10% from its high, And Raise it by 5% if the market climbs 10% above its old high" - then that might clarify things. Clarity on the taxes might help the market transactions to pick up. As it is, many people who were not Permanent Residents when the BSD was imposed may be getting their HKIDs in the future. And children of HK people may reach adulthood. These two things may help to revive demand over time, especially in the lower priced sector, where DSD is less of a problem.

A cryptic headline from The Standard "Easter flat sales rebound as fewer units on the market" > http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=144686&sid=42101450&con_type=1 ?Huh? How does THAT work?

SWALLOWED WHOLE - on AX Posted by E-- SCMP this morning: Hong Kong home sales surge over Easter as owners cut prices OTP : Yeah. We have seen headlines like that for months, as the market moved sideways. Maybe: "Sellers cut offers, and Buyers raised bids, to meet somewhere in the middle"- makes a borrowing headline. So instead, we get the usual bearish spin. As evidence for "price cuts", they talk about a flat at Taikoo Shing which "changed hands for HK$8.75 million, below the asking price of HK$8.9 million" Run the numbers. That's a 702-sf flat, and so the price was $12,464 per sf. Latest Centaline Index for Taikoo Shing, an old estate on the far end of HK Island, far from Central was $12,587 last week and the average for the year 2014 , it was under $12,000 psf. So the buyer is hardly getting a bargain. There's no real sign of the "5 to 6 per cent discounts" the article talks about. Cutting by 1.7% from $8.9 to $8.75 is a pretty normal step in buyer/seller negotiations these days. The Headline could have been just as fairly written with the reverse spin, by stating: "Easter buying surge shows prices above market" (ie ABOVE the average for this year.) The bearish spin, and people's willingness to swallow it whole is noteworthy IMO. The agents talk the market down (to make their jobs easier in what is admittedly still a "buyers market"). And the press reports the spin with a straight face, not bothering to check any figures.

Bad News ! Support Broke Gold has slid below the MA support levels I have been watching WE COULD SEE MORE DEFLATION / "from China"- says Charles Neneer Chas. Neener's Predictions ==== "End of May 2014, we really get into trouble." "Dow-5,000 by 2019" "SPX 1850-1900, the Insiders get out of the market" "New Bull Market in Gold starts July this year" "Gold at $2,100 ... in a year or year and a half... may not stop there" Today’s Guest : Pastor Mark Biltz and Charles Nenner Topic : With Passover commencing and the first of four upcoming blood moons set to appear early Tuesday morning, Pastor Mark Biltz spends the first half of the program discussing his extensive study into the the significance of this celestial phenomenon as it relates to Bible prophecy. In the second half of the show, Charles Nenner, founder and president of the globally acclaimed Charles Nenner Research, discusses what he is forecasting for not only the financial markets but also in the realms of geopolitics and climate. As a former high-level analyst and consultant for major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch and international and institutional clients managing hundreds of billions of dollars, Charles’ advice is highly sought after and not worth missing. MP3 : http://www.trunews.com/Audio/4_14_14_monday_trunews2.mp3

EASTER PEAK ? A possible commodities signal ? This chart looks toppy to me. What is it? Think Chocolate NIB / iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN ... update ...compare with some other commodities ... NIB versus SLV/Silver and CRB ... update == == Why did I look at this? I read an article in today's paper, entitled: "Chocolate Egg surprise for Easter is sticker shock" - SCMP Consumers braced for further price increases as supply of cocoa fails to keep up with demand. Cocoa may rally to US$3,210 a tonne on ICE Futures in NY by the end of Dec., the highest since July 2011, according to the average estimate of 14 traders and analysts. The US price of cocoa butter ... that accounts for 20 per cent of the price of a chocolate bar, rose 86 per cent in the 12 months to April 11... the costs of other ingredients is also rising. Global bean production will rise for the first time in three years, reaching 4.1 million tonnes in the 12 months to Sept.... that would be LESS than the Demand for a second year (Demand / and in the future); In Germany where per capita chocolate consumption is the highest in the world at 9 kg per year, confectioners will produce 206 million bunnies for Easter this year, 8.4 per cent more than a year earlier. Pre-Easter sales of confection products at British grocery chain Waitrose jumped 14 per cent from a year earlier... Consumers in Asia-Pacific (are projected to) eat 1.1 million tonnes by 2018, a 27 percent increase from last year. ...increasing prospects of an El Nino weather pattern, which can bring dry winds to West Africa.

Remember this? The C_Wave low came in 2012 for most of the UK

Charts on BDEV? Yeah, I post them often - see above for an example There's also a thread on BDEV in another section: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17414 The Current RALLY in UK House prices was predicted here back in April 2013, one year ago Another place to find Interesting Charts, is my Diary, which I update every day: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18950&page=1

BDEV and the possible DOWNTURN in LONDON LOOKING for Confirmation? - It may come soon ! ... update EXCERPT from the article by Dominic Frisby Housebuilders are warning of a potential peak in house prices ...I like to watch the house builders. By that I mean the likes of Barratt (LSE: BDEV), Persimmon (LSE: PSN) and Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW). They have, over the years proven to be reliable indicators as to the future direction of house prices. . . . Here’s a chart of UK house prices since the mid-1980s from Nationwide. (compare): In each move, Barratt has been ahead of the housing market. Intraday, Barratt actually peaked in 2006 and retested that peak in February 2007, while house prices themselves peaked in late 2007. So, to 2014. Having been as high as 450p in early March, Barratt touched 360p on Monday. That’s a fall of more than 20%. In other words, it’s bear market territory. == > more: http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-dont-speak-too-soon-but-the-housing-bubble-may-be-peaking/

EXCERPT from the article by Dominic Frisby Housebuilders are warning of a potential peak in house prices ...I like to watch the house builders. By that I mean the likes of Barratt (LSE: BDEV), Persimmon (LSE: PSN) and Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW). They have, over the years proven to be reliable indicators as to the future direction of house prices. . . . Here’s a chart of UK house prices since the mid-1980s from Nationwide. (compare): In each move, Barratt has been ahead of the housing market. Intraday, Barratt actually peaked in 2006 and retested that peak in February 2007, while house prices themselves peaked in late 2007. So, to 2014. Having been as high as 450p in early March, Barratt touched 360p on Monday. That’s a fall of more than 20%. In other words, it’s bear market territory. == > more: http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-dont-speak-too-soon-but-the-housing-bubble-may-be-peaking/

(as was posted on AX): "Centadata back above 119" Yeah. If you look at prices across HK they have now changed very little since the end of 2012: Week : CCLI : CMMI : RobinPl: Tregun: Dynast / IslHarb: ParkAv: Waterf : Sorrent : TArch : C'ribC : TaikSh. ==== . . 04/13: 119.04 117.94: 13,754 : 19,250 : 23,960 /10,291: 11,260 : 13,109 : 17,021 : 22,843 : 5,627 : 12,587 2013 : 12/29: 119.07 118.19: 14,407 : 19,180 : 23,181 /10,783: 12,325 : 13,926 : 17,849 : 21,820 : 5,768 : 10,936 2012 : 12/30: 115.78 114.25: 14,985 : 19,609 : 23,883 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 : 11,665 === This is despite: + Reports of 10-20% "discounts" at new property launches - (I would ask again: how really are these?) + Banks cutting their Valuations by 10% or more in many cases + The barrage of reports in the news media about 10-15% cuts in "asking" prices that you can find almost every week + Agents trying hard to talk prices down, so they can have an easier job making a sale, in what is admittedly a "buyers market" But the big price drops that have been talked about, even shouted about by some Bearish posters here, have not yet found their way into the Indices. (And I admit to still being sore about being called someone "talking his book", when I have been consistently posting realistic and mostly accurate reports. Where are the Price cuts we have been promised, Bears??)

BUY NOW ? (A suggestion, not a recommendation. Recent low may be a good place for your stop) = =

There should be support above GLD-$124. (76d-MA) ... GLD-chart If that goes too, a slide towards $1300 is possible

RENEWABLE ENERGY Philippines has 96 million people and has a plan to be 100% renewable energy with 10 years + Mainly thermal + Windmills along the coast + 150,000 electric taxis (built locally) Mark Dansie: Renewable Energy in the Philippines Excerpt Video : 7 minutes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Of47k87YVOg&feature=youtu.be Full Interview - almost 2 Hours MP3 / Audio : http://www.mediafire.com/download/70gwzdvxmci9dpw/TMRN_PTS3074_64kbps.mp3 (at 25 minutes in): (at 1:45 mins.): he talks about the attitude of the Women in the Philippines

The Barratt Warning Bell is ringing LOUDER ! LAST: 366.9P - 19.4 : - 5.02% BDEV / Barratt Dev'l ... 2-year : 6-mos :: If the support near 360-365p does not hold, then WATCH OUT BELOW !

SLV : -APR. : -JUN. : -OCT. : Ja'15 : 19.19 $20 : $0.11 : $0.50 : $1.09 : $1.42 : $19 : $0.44 : $0.91 : $1.52 : $1.85 : $18 : $1.24 : $1.55 : $2.09 : $2.39 = $20.39 / $19.19 = 106.25% // offer $2.41 / bid $2.36 : + 2.12% : Apr $19.24 / $19.19 = 100.26% / 6.00 prem./ 9mos = 0.67%/mo === AGQ : -APR. : -JUN. : -SEP. : Ja'15. : 64.96 $75 : $0.30 : $2.25 : $4.95 : $70 : $0.80 : $3.45 : $6.40 : $65 : $2.27 : $5.35 : $8.30 : $61 : $5.20 : $7.40 : 10.10 : 11.40 = $72.40 / $64.96 = 111.45% // offer 13.30 / bid 12.00 : +10.83% $60 : $6.00 : $8.05 : 10.65 : 12.00?= $70.00 / $64.96 = === Apr $66.00 / $64.96 = 101.60% / 9.85 prem./ 9mos = 1.09%/mo They have TWICE the gearing - and may be great in a runaway Silver market. But in a choppy market, they will lose value fast

One Point of View / Interview with Dr Richard Alan Miller JUST US RADIO NETWORK last Friday Call in to speak with the host : (718) 506-1564 MP3 : http://www.blogtalkradio.com/justusradionetwork/2014/04/12/one-point-of-view-with-dr-richard-alan-miller.mp3 Download : Default player New Window < />Embed Dr. Richard Alan Miller is a pioneer in the annals of metaphysical and paranormal exploration. Miller began working in the "X-Files" world of Navy Intel (Seal Corp. and then MRU) in the late 60s. His public collaborations and research continue. As an original black ops team-member, Miller's research in the field of paranormal began as a graduate physicist working 11 years with Navy Intel (Anesthesiology). During this period numerous foundational papers, including "A Holographic Concept of Reality" and "Embryonic Holography" were written. His past and current writings and presentations reveal a depth of knowledge and practical experience in three major fields; Alternative Agriculture, New Age Physics, and Metaphysics.

SPIN THIS ? ! : The Data is a clear challenge to the Bears: "the 2,680-square-foot flat on the 36th floor of Block 1 at Dynasty Court changed hands for HK$73.88 million yesterday... Kato Koki paid HK$78 million for the flat at the 17-23 Old Peak Road development in November 2011, Land Registry data shows...." Thanks, L. for pointing that out. Now tell me, why are you ignoring 10X - 100X or more people who bought flats BELOW $4 MILLION purchase price, and are now Ahead on their purchases? Is this "rock star guy" somehow more meaningful than the hundreds or thousands of ordinary folk who are happy with their property purchases? Perhaps you should apply for a reporters job at SCMP or The Standard. They may like your assistance in finding stories that may help push the market lower. Maybe you can tell them how they can get a negative spin into this - Yesterday's Centaline data: Centa-City Leading Index : 118.82 + 1.36% > http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

Deja Vu all over again "... we'll be asking in a couple of years how come we were so stupid as to allow HelptoBuy" I agree ! A very poor policy. Short term gain, long term pain. The whole idea was to get some politicians reelected. May they wear their blunder proudly, like a Gordon Brown mask, stitched on their faces

Caravan To Midnight #37 Dr. Richard Alan Miller / John B Wells = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FJan7ddjhY = Published on 8 Apr 2014 Metaphysical subjects, environmental, and all points in between.with John B Wells on Caravan To Midnight.

TOP of the Morning to you, London Property Buyers ! There are SIGNS of Buyer Fatigue already: This could prove to be an excellent call, C.S. ! BDEV / Barratt is also showing signs of weakness ... update The "classic" signal of a top (in my system) would be when the 76d-MA crosses over the 252d-MA. And it should cross the 200d-MA first. It nearly happened last year, but the market as saved by the bizarre "Help-to-Buy" scheme