drbubb

Do you still think its sick? Gold is holding DESPITE a strong dollar Maybe the "sickness" needed to be purged I think we will see an important Low before the end of July 2014 But we may be seeing it SOONER, maybe much sooner than that ! GDX could bottom (at a higher low) very near where it is now

Gold stocks could be setting up for a Big Rally - Below from DrB's Diary: I disagree with Yves, that Gold sentiment is "too bullish"- I think the fall with sentiment holding higher may prove "a good thing" for Gold and Gold shares GDM / Arca Gold Miners Index ... GDM-4yrs : all-data // GDX-4yrs : all-data // HUI-4yrs : all-data // Gdxj-4yrs --3yrs-> HUI - all data : 4 yrs // GLD-all-data : 4yrs // DBA-all-data : 4 yrs

Discussion from AX Makati North (P. ): I have my doubts with the Manila property market. If you have a unit, there's much difficulty in re-selling it. It's going to be more difficult in the future due to a "glut" in new supply. (OTP): The GLUT may not appear, because of the rapid rise in jobs in BPO's, and because properties will be bought by Filipinos living overseas Also, Philippine people are moving from "traditional" and (rather shabby) live arrangements into modern CBD areas, which are mixed use "islands" from the transport chaos around them. I did not "get" it, until I saw the speed and importance of this shift to a new living arrangement, and also - the ability of Overseas Filipinos (with incomes 2-3x what they could make in their own country) to fund this shift (P. ): I think BPO workers can't afford to buy new units. It's the Filipinos who work overseas who can. Not all can do so though, for example, the FDHs here in HK can't. (OTP): Generally, that is true. The average BPO worker cannot afford a flat priced at PHP 140,000 per Sq M.' But some can. Managers, and employees of other businesses operating in the same Tower. Here's a plan for North Makati: Certainly, dozens or hundreds of the office workers in those new towers will be able to afford to buy or rent flats priced at PHP100-150k per Sq Meter. If you live within walking distance of your office, commuting costs go way, way down. And we will also see OFW's who buy properties nearby, and lease them or lend them to friends and relatives (who work nearby) at below market rentals. The ones I worry about are properties in under-construction buildings like Trump Tower, which are priced at PHP 400,000 per Sq M. These require a very long walk, or a taxi ride (in traffic) to likely jobs. I do not see how these very expensive high end properties are going to pay their way. Maybe someone can explain.

Hong Kong's Property Index ; Making Sense of its movements, using trendlines I posted back in Feb. 2011: "+ I try to analyze property markets within an 18 year cycle, which I have described elsewhere on this thread, and also on YouTube. It basically consists of 14 years up, and 4 years down - though these time frames can "morph" somewhat depend on the general economy and longer cycles. + I think HK is on its way into a Long Cycle top, which I am expecting in the 2015-17 time frame. You will note that: 1997 (most recent peak) plus 18 years is 2015 and 2003 (most recent low) plus 14 years is 2017. From these two calculations come my expected peak. + Between now and 2015-17, theres is time for a decent correction, before a final "blowoff rally" into a peak around the time the Macau bridge may be finished, and when new MTR lines may be completed. These works may be give rise to excessive confidence and a final Long Cycle peak. (I am just guessing on this, but I would be monitoring how these projects effect confidence. + The "correction" that I am expecting might come from a jump in interest rates, as bond holders and others react to rising inflation, and force Central banks to lift interest rates. I think you will agree that a rise in HK mortgage rates to 2.5 - 3.0% (from present 1%) might bring at least a 10-15% correction in HK property prices. And it could be more than that, if rates go higher" No reason to change any of that. But we could see a premature peak, caused by those "cooling measures" == > see- post#4 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=13789&page=1 / BTW: people from AX who may want to post here, can get a Free password by: Sending a Personal Message to OTP on AX /

// anyone from AX who would like to post here: Please sent a PM-message to OTP at AX, and ask for a password // Ed-at-AX goes on defending in his flawed sources: (OTP): Ed, you ask: "Who would pay them off to write spin?" Are you joking? All of the Press look after the interests of their advertisers. Doesn't AsiaXpat do the same? Perhaps you are under less pressure to do so. As for "the US tightening" - it may happen eventually - But I see more talk than action, just look at the level of short term rates in the US, and mortgage rates in HK. Not much sign THERE yet. I can agree: WHEN mortgage rates in HK jump by 1, 2, 3% or more, there will be some significant impact on the HK market. Meantime, incomes are mostly moving higher, and so are rents in some areas. With CCLI just reported an hour ago at 118.12, I see more signs of a "sideways" market than the "bearish" one we keep reading about in the press. Go back and read: "(29 July 2013): I have been saying for a long time, that HK's Property Developers would take the brunt of this correction, especially in the early stages of the present correction. And I still believe that will be true. THIS ARTICLE suggests that price cuts for new properties are coming - The premium over secondhand was just too large to be sustained." >source: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/151878/hk-developers-game:-cut-prices?/ Compare that with the many predictions for a 10-20% drop that you could read in the Press at that time. (Ed): So how exactly would that work? Which advertisers in the WSJ or Bloomberg would have so much influence that they could get them to post lies about the HK property market? I doubt the WSJ has a single advertiser coming out of the HK market - this market would be insignificant to them as a global brand - I hardly think any advertiser in HK would have the clout to corrupt the WSJ editorial (not saying they cannot be corrupted but I think you'd have to be a pretty big player to get that done) And what about the two investment bank analysts who have indicated developers have discounted prices? Why would they lie? Are they being bribed? What is the upside for them in lying about discounting? Sorry I don't buy this --- this is a mickey mouse issue for such global organizations -- I do not believe investment banks and global media would be participating in some vast conspiracy to talk down the HK market (OTP): Ed, My comment is about spin. Are you not aware that many developers advertise in various Newspapers. I have documented the spin in various place on this thread and elsewhere. If you cannot see it, you are pretty blind IMHO. You have never made a detailed rebuttal of any of my detailed comments. Why do the WSJ and Bloomberg get sucked in?: Their reporters are not close to the market (just read their articles, and you can see they are out of date). So I reckon they are basing their reports on what they read in local HK press sources, which are influenced heavily by their friends in property agencies, and by the reliance of local papers on ad revenues from the developers. If you rely on "spun" material, you will wind up writing spin too. In addition to that, they seem to think their readers will care more about areas like Midlevels, which ARE clearly falling, rather that the more stable low-priced properties in areas like TKT, which may not get much investment from English-speaking readers of the WSJ or Bloomberg. As for the accuracy of the bears, many people have "called them out" for their inaccuracy. How can you go on ascerting that such nonsense is a useful forecast for future trends, I do not know. The "conspiracy" is pretty simple: + Newspapers "spin" transactions in a bearish way, but the market moves sideways. I think they are heavily influenced by agents, who clearly want to talk the market lower, since they can do more business at lower prices, and/or with sellers who are worried about a falling market. + Banks under-value the secondhand market, while accepting inflated values of new properties to help their developer clients - This is glaringly obvious if you look at what is happening at The Long Beach in Olympic. (I am pretty sure the press will not touch this story, since it would anger Hang Lung, a powerful HK company.)

Philppines Market Presentation - Century Properties Group About 75% of CPG's Properties are sold outside the Philippines To OFWs (Overseas Foreign Workers), an important market segment: Because: : ~10% of Philippines population are OFWs who earns up to 3.2x Metro Manila salaries. Deployment continues, and OFWs choose Metro Manila as their preferred location for housing. Steadily increasing deployment == Source: Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) Domestic housing more affordable for OFWs with higher incomes 2010 Average monthly income by jurisdiction ( Php „000 ) Source: Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) Note: (1) Metro Manila average monthly income Average: 63.0 = PHP 63,000 per month based on 2009 data Multiple of Manila (x) : 3.2 ... 3.0 .... 2.7 .. 2.4 ... 2.4 ... 2.2 ... 1.0 . n/a Php 000's . 94.0 . 88.9 . 78.6 . 70.8 . 70.1 . 64.1 . 30.1 . 29.7 AREA== Europe/ Africa/ Amer./Oce. /Asia / Sea./ West / Metro ======= .........../ ........ / ........ /-ania/ E.S./based/ Asia / Manila (2) Despite increased Supply, Demand has grown faster (206K since 2009 units with average of 51.5K units), Take up demand has increased as well (170K units since 2009 with average of 42.5K units) Year: Launch Takeup Pct% Left 2009 : 35.6 K : 28.6 K : 80% : 7.0K 2010 : 52.9 K : 39.9 K : 75% : 13.K 2011 : 58.7 K : 49.1 K : 84% : 9.6K 2012 : 58.7 K : 52.6 K : 90% : 6.1K == > http://www.century-properties.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Q3-2013-AP.pdf

WHAT DO HK BUYERS WANT? (when buying flats in the Philippines) We were in Manila last week, completing the contract arrangements for purchase of a new flat in the Makati area. We have become friendly with the agent, and he asked us for : Suggestions for how they might get more business from buyers based in Hong Kong. Here are the bulletpoints we listed for him: + Monitor meetings and negotiations between HK and the Philippines to settle, and resolve the ill-feelings that may be left from of the tragic shootings of bus hostages in Aug. 2010. (Fortunately, this may be "officially" settled now, with travel restrictions now lifted,) + Be prepared to discuss arrangements that HK buyers may need to use to purchase properties in the Philippines. This includes banking arrangements (we are using HSBC-Philippines in our transaction), renting out properties, and eventually selling them, + Explain that new properties in Manila are delivered in a "less finished" state than in HK. This means that buyers will need to pay for air conditioners, white goods, etc. It would be very helpful to buyers to have a (current) estimate of likely costs for this work, together with some suggestions about whom might do the work. (Of course, prices may change somewhat by the time a new property is completed in 4-5 years time.) + + + Visit Hong Kong, and help prospective buyers with a keen interest, arrange a trip to see flats they may be interested in buying (The agent said he plans to visit HK in June) . . . + List advantages of properties which may have a particular interest to buyers in HK, because it is in a major CBD, and will therefore be easier to rent out to a good tenant . . . Having said this: I find prices in Manila attractive. A nice 1BR flat, well-located in the center of the Makati CBD might cost less than PHP 140,000 per sq meter. That's maybe HK$1.2 - 1.4 Milion for a 600+ sf Flat that would cost HK$8-10 Million or more in HK. We expect to rent out the flat for maybe an 8 -10% Gross Yield, with a Net Yield of just over half that. SQUARE METER PRICES Philippines versus Continent ========= .Hong Kong : xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx $20,680 ..Singapore : xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx $16,360 ...........India : xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx $11,466 .........Japan : xxxxxxxxxxxxxx $7,112 ........Taiwan : xxxxxxxxxxxxxx $6,932 .....Thailand : xxxxxxx $3,282 ...Cambodia : xxxxxx $2,913 Philippines : xxxxxx $2,807 .....Malaysia : xxxxx $2,629 ....Indonesia : xxxx $2,039 == Sq.Meter Prices, Premier City Centre, US$

May 05, 2014 Yves Calls a Bond Panic Bond rates have dropped, surprising the herd, which had expected a continued rise as the Fed tapers. Yves Lamoureux, the New Bond Guru, has put out a new report: Where are bonds headed for 2014. He expected, since February, the long bond to drop to 3.25% this summer before snapping back to higher rates. TYX / 30yr-TBond ... update In 2012 Yves called the end of the 30 year bond bull market. He was called the New Bond Guru for calling it correctly while the Old Bond Guru (Bill Gross) was still predicting bonds to rise and rates to drop. A year later in August 2013, after a rise and rates and then a drop, he put out an important bond call that bond apathy was ending and a bond panic would set in as rates were to rise again. After a 30-year drop in rates, the long bond rose from around 2.5% to over 4% in less than two years, an astounding change that Yves predicted too. The ten-year bond rose from 1.6% to over 3%. Now rates are falling and a short-term panic (rush to buy) may push them further down. Yves commented to me that with all this money going around clueless, the next big trend he sees has nothing to do with Wall Street's current obsession about a slowdown and deflation. He sees a large reflation on the horizon that will surprise everyone again! > Planet Yelnick: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2014/05/yves-calls-a-bond-panic.html

Did he catch the Low in late Dec. 2013?

Do you want to start a Blog / Thread here, CJ ? You could post every 2nd or 3rd projection you post on your website. And maybe get some good discussion going too

HEAVY HIGH END HONG KONG / Comments from AX Posted by p. (43 mins ago) Imperial Cullinan near MTR Olympic station yesterday recorded its fifth loss- making deal since February when a mainlander disposed of his flat for a loss of HK$1.06 million. As bearish sentiment grips the local luxury home market, a 1,383-square-foot flat - pledged for loans six times - was sold for HK$22 million. Measuring 1,067 sq ft net, the three-room unit owner earlier sought HK$23.5 million. What's the spin in this one? Posted by J.-01 (28 mins ago) A 4.5% discount on the advertised price? That's pretty much within the "normal" state of affairs. I guess Imperial Cullinan was over-hyped when it was put on the market, and some rich egocentric mainlanders thought they would be able to buy some status through a flat. Also, new flats are always more expensive than second hand ones. Of course if you buy a new one and sell it shortly after you will lose money. Everybody knows that. Can you find me a flat sold at a loss in Ma On Shan? No? Why? Because people buy in Ma On Shan to live, and not to buy status by buying over-hyped new flats in over-hyped new fashionable buildings? Posted by OTP (16 mins ago) P., If you are familiar with my postings here, you may know that I have always said that Imperial Cullinan was sold at very high prices, way over the prices of The Long Beach next door to it. This was achieved by SHKP properties through an interesting method : they had a showroom in Shenzhen, and BUSED potential buyers into Kowloon to see it. (I used to see the people from the buses walking around the area around IC when I went for my morning jogs back in those days.) Consequently they had many buyers from China, who may not have been aware that a very nice property, at much lower prices was right next door. Now with the slowdown in China some of those (reckless?) buyers may be selling. Does it surprise anyone that the GAP between IC and TLB is narrower in the secondary market. P., Do you ADD anything to what you cut-and-paste from the press? If so, you may find it would make sense to post press excerpts, together with comments and clarifications of your own, which is what I personally like to do. That way, readers here may get a more informed view than they can get from browsing the news. BTW, The WSJ has a headline: "Now on Sale, Hong Kong Homes" They also comment on how HK's "once sizzling property has turned so frosty that developers have resorted to discounts and other incentives." This will be no surprise to anyone in HK, who has been reading about discounts on new properties for many, many months... And those HK readers may be aware of the "tricks" that are being played in how those discounts are being reported and manipulated. Included in the article is a bar chart showing how annual prices changes shrank: From +26% in 2012, to +8% in 2013, and to -0.5% so far this year in 2014. There is also a reference to how "a so-called double stamp duty of 17% (sic) on property purchases" for non-residents has helped to kill demand in China. They haven't done a very good job at recognizing the two-tier nature of the market. With the expensive luxury end hit-hardest, while the lower end remains in generally good health, with prices mostly stable. In fact, there's this curious sentence in the article: "Even luxury condos are being discounted" ??? What ? - the sentence should read: "The more expensive luxury condos are being most heavily discounted, because that is where the new taxes have hurt demand most." I am disappointed that the WSJ would publish an article with so little new information for a well-informed HK based reader. Another article: "Vintage Apartments are back in favor - Buyers, Renters Turn to Older Buildings with more space, cheaper rents Instead of New High-end Tower" - by Chester Yung is also in today's WSJ. It is more informative. Yung writes: "Many of these buildings are in prime neighborhoods, and boast more space and better layouts... They offer far lower prices. These apartments are getting scarcer." For every 10 deluxe newer high rises, there is just one of these vintage units for sale. The ratio was about 7-to-1, a decade ago. "Prices of older buildings have held up rather well, rents of these older buildings are also as much as one-third cheaper." (But they may lack clubhouses.) Even Yung seems to have missed that CHEAPER older buildings, with flats priced at under $4-5 million, have done even better than the "vintage" Midlevels buildings (like Realty Garden, built in 1971) that he is writing about.

You may be right. But I have seen where I live (The Long Beach) that the banks are systematically undervaluing the secondhand properties (so only 2-3 flats have been sold since Nov.2013), while overvaluing the New Properties (permitting 100's of flats to be sold in the same time frame.) I am obviously biased - but I think this favoring of the banks may be illegal. But what to do?

PH Economic Freedom Ranking Jumps 8 Notches Jan 14, 2014 Philippine Economic News 58 Views The Philippines jumps to 89th in the Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal’s Economic Freedom index. According to The Heritage Foundation, the Philippine economy’s high degree of resilience and the government’s legislative reforms have enhanced investment environment and incentivized broader-based private sector job growth. “The Philippines’ economic freedom score of 60.1 [makes] it the 89th freest in the 2014 Index,” according to the report. “Its score is 1.9 points higher than [2013’s], reflecting notable improvements in investment freedom, business freedom, monetary freedom, and the control of government spending.” In addition, the Philippines ranks 15th out of 42 countries in the Asia–Pacific region, and its overall score is just slightly below the world average, according to the report. It also added that over the 20-year history of the index, the Philippines’ economic freedom score has advanced by 5.1 points. However, the Philippines’ improvements in seven of the 10 economic freedom indices, notably gains in trade freedom, investment freedom, and freedom from corruption, have been partially offset by deterioration in property rights. Asia–Pacific Regional Ranking 1. Hong Kong, 90.1 2. Singapore, 89.4 3. Australia, 82.0 4. New Zealand, 81.2 5. Taiwan, 73.9 6. Japan, 72.4 7. Macau, 71.3 8. South Korea, 71.2 9. Malaysia, 69.6 10. Kazakhstan, 63.7 11. Thailand, 63.3 12. Azerbaijan, 61.3 13. Samoa, 61.1 14. Kyrgyz Republic, 61.1 15. The Philippines, 60.1 16. Sri Lanka, 60.0 17. Vanuatu, 59.5 18. Mongolia, 58.9 19. Fiji, 58.7 20. Indonesia, 58.5 Philippines Receives Third Investment-Grade Rating from Moodys Oct 03, 2013 Philippine Economic News 2 Views Country’s one-notch upgrade puts it on par with Spain and Turkey. == > http://www.zipmatch.com/real-estate-news-and-advice/philippine-economic-news

Philippines GDP growth expected to remain high from Anya Investments website - with investment oppty. in Tagaytay "It is well known around the world, the first resorts to succeed in emerging cities are those nearby to the wealthiest communities, who not only work hard but who require easy getaway short retreats, to relax after a hard week’s work. Tagaytay, being just over an hour from Manila is the country’s favorite destination, with its temperate climate and natural features. Currently however there really does not exist a high quality, luxury resort to provide overnight accommodation in the area. Anya not only fulfills this fast emerging demand, but is positioned to be one of the top five luxury resorts to be found in the Philippines. The Anya Product provides designs only found in the most luxurious of resorts around the world, with an extensive range of dining, wellness, relaxation and entertainment amenities..." TAGAYTAY HOTEL MARKET Tagaytay City is famous for its cool weather and tourist destinations, offering great dining options and accommodations as well as scenic views of Taal Lake and Volcano. It is one of the most popular weekend destinations of Manila locals, as well as foreign tourists, and it is only a 1 to 1 ½ hours’ drive from Manila. Tourist arrivals in the provinces which cover the Tagaytay area have been rising. Batangas tourist arrivals increased by 61.27% in 2011. Cavite meanwhile, increased by 37.79%, upping the arrivals to 1,770,500 in 2011. For Tagaytay, while a slight dip in visitors occurred in 2012, Colliers believes that the general upward trend in visitors to the Tagaytay area will continue in the future. Tourists usually peak during the summer months of April and May as visitors escape the heat, while a second wave is experienced by the end of the year when overseas Filipinos take their holidays back in the country. . . . == > http://www.anyainvestments.com/files/Luxury%20Market%20Study%20by%20Colliers%20International.pdf

KEY TRENDS in Philippines Property continuing into 2014 #3: ... Popularity of transport-oriented developments (TOD), mixed-used projects or townships in or close to central business districts and akin to those we see in Singapore and Hong Kong. According to Guevarra, TODs will continue to be popular because of the shift in urbanites’ lifestyles, as people now want to live close to where they work, shop, dine out, and have a good time. Examples of such projects include up-and-coming Veritown Fort by Federal Land, Uptown Bonifacio by Megaworld, and Vertis North, Circuit Makati, and South Park District Ayala Land #4 and #5: 4. BPO Will Spur the Growth of 24-Hour Cities The business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, long have been a major employer in Metro Manila, will continue to drive the metropolis and the Philippines’ Next Wave Cities (Cebu, Davao, Iloilo, Bacolod, etc.) to become 24-hour urban areas. With many employees now working the night shift, support services such as restaurants and convenience stores should be available to cater to this emerging niche market. Because of these trends, public services such as traffic management and security should also be active day and night. 5. Office Real Estate Sector Will Continue to Perform Well With the BPO sector performing well, it will continue to absorb most of the new office supply being developed. Data from the Business Process Association of the Philippines (BPAP) show that the industry will employ some 960,000 workers nationwide by the end of 2013, and this translates to approximately 2.8 million sqm of office space need. According to Jones Lang LaSalle’s Sheila Lobien, there is no impending real estate bubble for the office space industry in the country at the moment, primarily because there is no noted oversupply due to strong demand. “Office rent has been historically stable and no illogical fluctuations are being observed that may hint of speculative actions.” In fact, a very low vacancy rate will be seen in 2014 despite substantial amount of new space being developed over the next few years. == > http://www.zipmatch.com/real-estate-news-and-advice/philippine-real-estate-news/10-things-to-expect-from-philippine-real-estate-in-2014

MORE on SPIN in the media - from AX P: How would you have written the news item if you don't a spin? Or you're just imagining the spin? It looks like a simple what/when/where/why item to me. OTP: To reduce spin: + I would compare prices achieved with indices, and mention that "some prices being paid are actually above the apparent market values" per Centaline index figures + Explain that: Discounts to asking prices may occur when buyers are also raising their bids, as a part of a normal back-and-forth negotiation process. (Sometimes I get the idea that some reporters have never negotiated a purchase or sale of a property based on the nonsense they write. Do they think sellers start out Asking the lowest price they are willing to sell at?) + Observe that: Discounts to asking prices seem to be narrowing as buyers creep back into the market, and realise that their "lowball bids" are no longer being accepted, and only desperate sellers have agreed big cuts (I reckon this is becoming more apparent as this year goes on) + The weakness in the market seems to be limited to more expensive properties, and meantime, the lower priced end of the market is hitting new record highs in some parts of the SAR I believe that ALL of these points are true, but you NEVER see them in news articles - Perhaps when such comments start showing up, it will be a sign of a dramatic change in sentiment. I have done some careful observation to be able to spot these realities, and I think this is the sort of factual "color" that people want to discover when they visit chatboards - since they may not read it or hear it anywhere else.

INSIDERS in Property companies are Buying - per SCMP + Lee Shau-kee bought 2.5 mn shares in Henderson Land at ave. $45.21 each (between Apr 24-29) + And also LSK bought 1.14 mn shs in SHKP at $96.92 per share (between Apr 24-29) + Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong bought 9.6 mn shs in SHKP at $95.12 (from Jan.3 - Mar.21), + Plus another 42.4 mn shs in an offmarket transacttion at undisclosed prices + Peter Woo Kwong-ching bought 3.62 mn shs in Wheelock at HK$30.13 in April + Robert Ng of Sino Land bought 288,000 shs in Sino at HK$11.42 each Charts: ===== HK-20 / Wheelock & Co. ... update HK-83 / Sino Land ... update

The SPIN continues... Headline in today's Standard: "Secondary flat sales jump to 10-month high" "... a 50 percent rise from a week ago," says Midland. THESE facts sound Bullish to me. Excerpt: "The deals at Mei Foo Sun Chuen involved price cuts of up to 6 percent. One 666-square foot flat there was offloaded for HK$5.98 million after the asking price was reduced from HK$6.38." (that's a 6.3% price cut.) When you first read that, it might sound mildly Bearish - but look into the detail: + HK$5.98 million / 666 sf = $8,978 psf + Centaline reports $6,508 psf-Gross and + $8,729 psf-Net for Mei Foo Sun Chuen So it seems the lucky seller got a 2.9% premium to market, when the Buyer raised his bid to that level. And THAT sounds Bullish to me. Do not believe the raw reporting in the press. They seem bent on an agenda of Bearish Spin. So run some numbers. and check their statements. You may keep finding as I do, that most sales transactions are neutral, and some are even bullish. The Exception might be on the "expensive" flats, priced above $10 Million, or $20 Million. If that's the "lowest" sales with the biggest "discount", what happened in the other cases? Are buyers now paying the full undiscounted (above market) asking prices demanded by Sellers? If so, then maybe a new Bullish trend is developing. It would be interesting to know the full facts, seem from both sides. But we are not getting that in the press.

It is now time to PAY really CLOSE ATTENTION to developing risks in the London and the UK markets. The property market may be turning. A very good Early Warning has been the chart of Barratt Developments (BDEV.L), which will often turn down 6-12 months ahead of the UK Property market, and BDEV seems to have peaked in early March 2014: BDEV - 10yr chart ... update : 2-years : 6-months A good confirmation might be when the 76d-MA crosses below the 252d-MA - then later the 610d-MA, and that has not happened yet - But these crosses may happen later in the year, within the next several months. The signal has worked brilliantly in the past - calling The Top in mid-2007, and the Low a few years later in early 2012.

It is now time to PAY really CLOSE ATTENTION to developing risks in the London and the UK markets. The property market may be turning. A very good Early Warning has been the chart of Barratt Developments (BDEV.L), which will often turn down 6-12 months ahead of the UK Property market, and BDEV seems to have peaked in early March 2014: BDEV - 10yr chart ... update A good confirmation might be when the 76d-MA crosses below the 252d-MA - then later the 610d-MA, and that has not happened yet - But these crosses may happen later in the year, within the next several months. The signal has worked brilliantly in the past - calling The Top in mid-2007, and the Low a few years later in early 2012.

Project Camelot Interviews James Robert Wright on FREEMASONS = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjsI7AuG5wg = Published on Mar 10, 2014 Ex 32nd degree FreeMason James Robert Wright wrote left the Masons and subsequently wrote: "FREEMASONRY CULT ABUSES." In this Camelot interview, Kerry Cassidy asks some very poignant questions about his knowledge and experience.

Kerry Cassidy's comments: "Illuminati Whistleblowers may start on the Dark side, and cross over to the Light." "Illuminati are magicians - There can be Dark and Light magicians... Templars are not all evil either" "A dark magician can activate kundalini, and 'have a halo'... though with some chakra problems. " "To whistleblowers: It is your Job to report to humanity what is really going on." "Sometimes a whistleblower will give misinformation just to save their own lives." from Interview with Sean Stone: War Against Illuminati + Dark Forces = =(It is said that Kerry Cassidy has a "protector", but this interview does not reveal who or what it is.)

According to someone from Inside the developing company, The attractions of The Greenfield district are: + A higher "ground zero" level, and so less susceptible to flooding + Three levels of transport: underground parking, street level, and elevated walkway + Fiber cables and WIFI everywhere, so allowing high speed internet communications + An integral connection to the MTR, at the Shaw station CITY : Above Sealevel- feet ======= Baguio City 1472m / 4,828 ft Clark Int'l -- : 155m / 0,508 ft Quezon City: 048m / 0,158 ft Manila ------ : 008m / 0,026 ft Makati ------ : 024m / 0,080 ft Shaw St --- : 047m / 0,156 ft Ft Bonifacio : 029m / 0,095 ft MAP : source Zitan Bldg. (Residential): SS-city thread comment on an early render: "it's ugly" - to some perhaps... but it may be a good investment ZITAN is the latest development located at the gateway of GREENFIELD DISTRICT, the first smart and connected district in the country TRANSIT ORIENTED CENTRAL LOCATION > 2 minute walk to EDSA MRT station and EDSA Shangrila Mall > 5 minute walk to St. Francis of Assisi Church and Lourdes School of Mandaluyong > Intertwine with a network of state-of-the-art buildings for commercial, retail, and residential use. CENTRAL ADDRESS Connects residents to malls, lifestyle centers, offices and public transport vehicles. FIRST MOVER ADVANTAGE The District's technologically-advanced infrastructure and environmentally-aware planning will provide dwellers a distinctive living experience. GREEN! GREEN! GREEN! 40% of the Greenfield District is dedicated to green open spaces, pocket parks, and tree-lined roads and overhead walkways. Not exactly corner EDSA since there's a property in the EDSA part based on the map given by hpalmer888. 35 floors all-in-all. 3 basement parking w/ 195 parking slots = 143 parking slots for residents (it will be interconnected with other buildings like SOHO Central and Twin Oaks Place.) 1st 3 levels allotted for commercial/retail space (for lease only). 32 floors for residential use. 22 units per floor expected number of units: 695 3 elevators + 1 service elevator amenities: pool, gym, function rooms They have fiber-optic "din yata" like Twin Oaks Place's. Much affordable but having quite the same technology! Go for it! Ok for investment! === === (As of Oct. 2012): ZITAN at the Greenfield District RESERVATION FEE: as low as P10,000.00 PAYEE: EQUUS PROPERTY VENTURE, INC. FOR SALE: 6th-10th floors only MANAGEMENT HOLD: 11th-36th floor studio A 25.40sqm - no balcony - Php 2,286,000 - 2,337,056 studio B 26.24sqm - w/ balcony - Php 2,361,000 - 2,414,342. studioC 30.56sqm- w/balcony- Php 2,758,040 - 2,804,186 studio D 30.15sqm - w/ balcony - Php 2,721,000 - 2,766,564 1 BR 46.04sqm - w/ balcony (MANAGEMENT HOLD) Avail our UNBEATABLE Pre-Launch Price for as low as Php 9,600.00/month (for the 1st 25 units ONLY) Spread downpayment @ 0% Interest as long as 48 months Basic pitch is: "Zitan Mandaluyong will appeal also to investors (local and foreign), entrepreneurs, families of OFWs. Its strategic location within minutes from the Ortigas, Mandaluyong, Global City and MaKati central business districts and its proximity to major commercial establishments, BPO companies and educational institutions make Zitan Greenfield District Mandaluyong a very good investment opportunity for rental income." Alternating Floors : Even, below : Odd no.s : === WEBSITE :: http://www.zitan.ph/

"The Greenfield District" / Shaw MRT - in Mandaluyang, near Shaw MRT station : Greenfields Thread, SS-City : : GD Interactive Map : 2013 master plan : Greenfield targets high end by Jenniffer B. Austria, Manila Standard, Oct. 2009 Greenfield Development Corp., the property arm of the Campos family, is ready to compete with well-established developers with the launch of Greenfield in November as a brand for high-end residential projects with the construction of its first solo residential tower project. “The sleeping dragon has awakened and we are here to fight it out in this real estate market,” Campos said. ========= Greenfield also plans to develop a 15-hectare land in Mandaluyong, called Greenfield District, the 20-hectare Hillsborough project in Muntinlupa, 100-hectare property in Mamplasan, Laguna, 300-hectare land in Greenfield City, Sta. Rosa, and a 25-hectare land in Mapagong in Calamba, Laguna. Greenfield earlier was involved in several joint venture projects but opted to remain low key. “We have always been a low-key group. I truly don’t like to do this press conference. The only reason we have to come out because buyers have been cheated so many times,” Campos said “Greenfield Development Corp. would like to be known as developer willing and open to use state-of-the-art technology wherever available, designed to improve the lives of its customers. This will be its distinctive and differentiating factor among other developers,” the company said in a statement. Greenfield plans to use a technology in which unit buyers will be able to open their home locks and security systems through their mobile phones and adjust their air conditioning units through their office computers. For the Greenfield District, the company is set to launch its first solo residential project, called Twin Oaks, a P3-billion building : source Twin Oaks will be part of a Master planned district - to be built up over 20 years - just South of Shaw Boulevard Video on Twins Oaks: Connectivity, design, are key features ...located within the 15-hectare Greenfield District along Shaw Boulevard in Mandaluyong. Campos said the company will start constructing the project by late next year for completion by 2014. It plans to offer the project at P105,000 to P110,000 per square meter. A 30-square meter studio room could cost between P3.05 million and P3.1 million*. Plans are also under way to improve the road network in 15-hectare Greenfield District and redevelop the whole area to make it more appealing to customers. Greenfield District is approximately the same size of Eastwood City in Libis, a project of tycoon Andrew Tan and Lopez-owned Rockwell Land Corp. Founded in 1971, Greenfield began as a landholding company with vast tracts of land in its portfolio. http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?p=45727853 / 2 / Greenfield District: Reinventing a city center The Hub at Greenfield District: A nice alternative for casual dining with its mix of both new and familiar restaurants The city is an organism, a biological creature. The metaphor has long fascinated sociologists, economists and urban planners. And indeed, a city does seem to follow the metabolic laws of living forms. Think about it: They are born and built from imagination. They thrive, grow and eventually will age. Thereafter, they will tend to slow down. Just as all living things are hampered by the handicaps that come with aging, it is inevitable that cities will also eventually function less efficiently as they mature and expand beyond their original blueprints and boundaries. For urban planners, property owners and even city residents therefore, the line of thought that advocates reinvention and evolution as key factors to keeping urban spaces relevant, functional and up-to-date to address changing needs is immensely important. Planning should not merely consider aesthetics and current necessities. Rather, it is more important to look forward and plan ahead so that each urban space will enjoy a longer life span. The need becomes more apparent as prime areas become even less available in a constantly growing conurbation such as Metro Manila. Thus, the redevelopment of the area in Mandaluyong that was once generally referred to as EDSA Central into a “smart and connected” community called Greenfield District is good news. The development is master-planned to consist of an intelligent mix of residential towers, office and shopping buildings and a range of restaurants and bars. Add this to the intrinsic advantage of a central location in Mandaluyong with a direct access to EDSA, and it will be easy to understand why the area is set to become a preferred residential address and meeting spot of residents of nearby established communities as well as office workers who would like to unwind after a hard day’s work in the business centers of Makati, Ortigas and even Quezon City. A growing number of dining options at The Hub The dining strip at Greenfield is fittingly called The Hub. It is a nice alternative for casual dining with its mix of both new and familiar restaurants. We explored it recently and were pleased to see that the prevailing atmosphere there was more relaxed than in other dining places. A wide, green field across the street and a refreshing light breeze made outdoor dining a tempting option especially on balmy evenings, and vehicle owners need not be frazzled because street side parking is readily available. “We are the only ones with the flexibility to offer open spaces in the area,” said Rene C. Arnobit, assistant vice president and head of retail division of Greenfield Development Corporation, pointing out the nearby lush 7,000 sqm. open park. He shares that about 40 percent of the entire Greenfield development will consist of pocket parks, tree-lined streets and refreshing open spaces of greenery. He adds, “The Hub is the first restaurant strip in the area and we are looking forward to serving a new upscale market.” While we were able to fit in only four outlets during that particular visit, it was a nice experience overall > MORE: http://www.philstar.com/modern-living/2013/08/17/1098371/greenfield-district-reinventing-city-center * This seems to be the price anticipated back in 2009

Greenfield District & Ortigas (Boni, Shaw, & Ortigas MRT). Looking Beyond Makati I find property-related opportunities in Makati, BGC, Circuit etc to be pretty interesting - but that's not all there is in the Philippines. There are some other areas that also look interesting; including some n the heart of greater Manila, and also outside. Note (added in edit, in late 2017): Some readers may want to scroll down and get past the Greenfield district stuff at the beginning. That was the initial purpose of the thread - but the purpose broadened out later. Metro-Manila Map / Manila Map EDSA / MTR Stations : link ... Larger Map : MTR Stations / "Blue Line" There are 13 stations in Metro Manila, which spans five (5) cities, from North Avenue in Quezon City to the the southern tip in Pasay, which is Taft Avenue. The list of stations, as well as major landmarks, are as follows: ======== 1. North Avenue (Quezon City) - SM North and Ayala Trinoma. QC Circle is also nearby. 2. Quezon Avenue (Quezon City) - ABS-CBN Network Station and the closest link to University of the Philippines. QC Circle is also nearby. 3. GMA-Kamuning (Quezon City) - GMA Network Station and Timog Avenue is already accessible. 4. Araneta Center-Cubao (Quezon City) - Araneta Coliseum, SM Cubao, Ali-Mall, various provincial bus stations, Aurora Boulevard, Gateway Mall, New Farmer's Plaza, and the closest link to Ateneo de Manila University. There are also jeepneys here that go to Pasig and passes by Eastwood. This also serves as the link of MRT to the LRT 2 Line (also known as the Purple Line) that starts from Santolan Station in Marikina to Recto Avenue in Manila. 5. Santolan-Annapolis (Quezon City) - Camp Crame (PNP Headquarters)and Camp Aguinaldo (AFP Headquarters) 6. Ortigas Avenue (Pasig City) - SM Megamall, EDSA Shrine, Robinson's Galleria, Greenhills, Holiday Inn, Crowne Plaza, Poveda Learning Center, St.Francis Square, and Podium 7. Shaw Boulevard (Mandaluyong City) - Shangri-La Plaza, EDSA Central, StarMall, EDSA Shangri-La Hotel, and also SM Megamall. 8. Boni (Mandaluyong City) - Pioneer Plaza, Robinson's, Cybergate, and Victor Potenciano Medical Center ... The Sta.Monica-Lawton Ave. bridge due late 2019 maybe a game changer. 9. Guadalupe (Makati City) - San Carlos Seminary, Guadalupe Shopping Center. This is also the nearest link to Rockwell Center, Power Plant Mall, and even the Makati City Hall (there are jeepneys that pass by Guadalupe, Rockwell, and J.P. Rizal where the City Hall is). This also links the MRT to the Pasig Ferry Line through the Guadalupe Ferry Station. 10. Buendia (Makati City) - Nearest link to the Makati Central Business District (Makati CBD). From this station, one can also ride a bus to the MMDA Main Headquarters in Orense (though the building is between Buendia and Guadalupe stations, it is still practical to go down at Buendia and take a bus that is northbound). 11. Ayala (Makati City) - Ayala Center, Glorietta, SM Makati, Greenbelt, Landmark, nearest link also the Makati CBD. This is also the nearest link to Fort Bonifacio and McKinley Hill through the Mckinley Road. 12. Magallanes (Makati City) - Alpha Southland Mall, Pasong Tamo, Dasmarinas Village entrance, South Super Highway, Little Tokyo, Paseo de Magallanes, Asia Pacific College, Glaxo Smith Kline, and San Lorenzo Place 13. Taft Avenue (Pasay City) - Metropoint Mall, Macapagal Avenue, Baclaran, Pasay Rotonda. Nearest link to the SM Mall of Asia, universities found in U-Belt and Taft (such as De La Salle University), and Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA). This also serves as the link of MRT to the LRT 1 Line (also known as the Yellow Line) that starts from Baclaran Station in Pasay to Monumento in Caloocan. ======= Recently, the LRT1 Yellow Line was extended to link to the MRT. Three more stations were added to the LRT 1 Yellow Line to "connect" the Monumento Station to MRT's North Avenue. These stations are: Balintawak, Roosevelt, and SM North. > Read more: http://www.metromaniladirections.com/2010/03/mrt-stations.html#ixzz30kQekEs6 The Makati, BGC, Circuit thread is here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18811 (and these are areas mostly developed by Ayalaland) This thread will look at some areas close to the EDSA MRT stations