drbubb

If you look at Gold-in-Euros, the upper end of the Triangle is being tested now GLD (in US$) is closer to the Bottom of the Triangle : GLD-6mos

City Point : in the first batch: + 180 will have three bedrooms + 114 have two bedrooms, and + 56 are four-bedroom units Prices: between: HK$5.3 mn - $13.09 million Per Sf: HK$9,062 - $14,328 psf, Net : BEFORE discounts* (Calculation: mean: HK$11,695 > after 15.75 discount = $9,853 psf) Compare - Nearby--- : Price psf, Net. = Psf, Gross Vision City (7 yrs old): HK$12,866 psf : Indi - Home ( ?? yrs. ): HK$10,410 psf Chelsea Ct ( ?? yrs. ): HK$ 9,660 psf ========= *Note the discounts assume: === + Basic: 4 % + Cash: 5 % + Early: 3 % - if closing is prior to June 30th + DSD : 3.75% - to cover the Double Stamp Duty = Total: 15.75% So, the buyer must close quickly, and pay cash, and "buy" a flat he cannot move into straight away, As an example: 2 BR on 7th floor in Bl. 7 / Cost: HK$4.5 million / 483 sq.ft = $9,317 psf, AFTER Discount

DESPITE ALL THE TALK about price cuts, and selling pressure over the last 1-2 years. Take a look at prices in Riviera Garden, a 30year+ building near CK's new project: City Point: RIVIERA : Does this chart bear any similarity to what you would EXPECT to find, after reading all the posts from the Bears on AX ??? The Bears have been wrong a long time, and I do not think anyone should rule out a period of "surprising strength" - But I am not promising that, just identifying it as a possibility, given what I am seeing in the market now, and ignoring the heavy spin in many news articles. WANT TO get a better sense of the Real market? Go along to the show flat, and see how people are reacting to the launch and how many people show up. You do not need to buy. Many people who visit will also be "window shoppers."

"Less Pressure on prices... " - says Bloomberg article With prices-after-Discount being between: $7,634 to $12,071 psf, Net (ie around $10,000, Net) Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd., the Hong Kong builder controlled by Asia’s richest man, is offering as much as 16 percent discount at its latest residential project in the city as developers are set to accelerate sales this year. City Point, the company’s biggest Hong Kong housing project in two years, will sell 350 of a total 1,717 units in the first batch, the company said today. After discounts, the flats in the estate developed jointly with Nan Fung Development Ltd. located in Tsuen Wan district, range from HK$7,634 ($984) per square foot to HK$12,071 per square foot. Developers including Cheung Kong and Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. are competing for buyers in the world’s most-expensive housing market as the government’s curbing measures cooled both prices and transaction volume. Prices, which Barclays Plc forecasts will drop at least 30 percent by 2016, are also under pressure from increasing supply in the coming years. “Cheung Kong is sitting on the most available-for-sale units so its strategy is very important for the market,” said Alfred Lau, an analyst at Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong. The discount at City Point “is not a severe price cut so it seems they’re not going for volume, which puts less pressure on the pricing.” Sales Target Cheung Kong will sell a total of 800 units at City Point this year, Executive Director Justin Chiu told reporters today in Hong Kong, adding that the company is confident it can reach its sales target in Hong Kong this year. == > http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-22/cheung-kong-offers-discount-on-hong-kong-project-as-supply-rises.html I have been examining this project, and think it will sell well (at this prices). If buyers respond very well, then there is some possibility it could "ignite" the market. (I am thinking this way because of the recent strength in HK Builders' shares.)

( 2 hours ago ) Cheung Kong offering 15.75pc discount on City Point flats South China Morning Post ‎- 2 hours ago Cheung Kong will release flats at discounts of up to 15.75 per cent at City Point in Tsuen Wan, the first housing estate to go on sale after the ... . . . The discounted prices are up to 24 per cent lower than the HK$12,000 per sq ft achieved in recent secondary-market transactions in the area. Prices for the first batch of 350 units at the joint project with Nan Fung Development will be as low as HK$9,062 per square foot. The cheapest flat being released for sale is a 483 sq ft unit with a balcony, priced at HK$4.5 million. Justin Chiu, an executive director at Cheung Kong, said the City Point prices were attractive. “We will offer the first batch of units at lower prices to attract market attention, and our clients can buy their homes at a happy price,” he said. == > http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1517792/cheung-kong-offering-1575pc-discount-city-point-flats > Price List: http://s3pictures.gohome.com.hk/images/newdevelopment_photo/pricelist/1514.pdf THIS NEWS delayed it: Urns queer pitch for mega-project / Friday, May 16, 2014 The sales brochure of a large-scale Tsuen Wan project will have to be amended after a Town Planning Board decision to rezone a nearby plot. The 1,717 unit City Point - a much- awaited project developed by Cheung Kong, Nan Fung and MTR Corp - had its brochures printed on April 24. But last Friday, the board announced that a nearby site will be earmarked for a public columbarium. == > http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=21&art_id=145454&sid=42276670&con_type=1&d_str=20140516&fc=8

(2-3 weeks ago, at the time of the "soft launch") City Point pricing won't undercut secondary market, property agents say Demand for Tsuen Wan project should hold up pricing for Cheung Kong and partner, agents say More than 1,700 units to be offered = Guessing how Cheung Kong will price City Point, the housing estate in Tsuen Wan it plans to launch with Nan Fung soon, has been a popular game recently for property agents such as Eva Tse. "The project has more than 1,700 units. The developer will probably offer a big price range for various potential buyers. But I believe they will not undercut secondary home prices," said Tse, assistant sales director of Centaline Property Agency's Tsuen Wan and Belvedere branch. "This is the first large-scale residential launch in Tsuen Wan since the launch of Vision City [by Sino Land] in 2006. There are quite a large number of families in the district who want to upgrade their living areas. They are eyeing the project," she said. "The developer can find buying support if the price is at par with the secondary market." Tse guessed the selling price would compare with nearby Chelsea Court in Yeung Uk Road, where transaction prices ranged from HK$8,500 to HK$11,000 per square foot. But the price range could be wider, depending on the flats' views. Agents said some two-bedroom units of the development facing a cemetery will be priced at HK$8,000 to HK$8,500 per square foot, comparable to adjacent Riviera Gardens, which was built more than 30 years ago. Many of the four-bedroom flats have a sea view and may cost more than HK$10,000 per square foot, Tse estimated. City Point, at the Tsuen Wan West MTR station, will have 1,717 two- to four-bedroom units. Cheung Kong said it would launch the first batch shortly but gave no details. The developer plans to sell 800 flats at the project this year. Under the Residential Properties (First-hand Sales) Ordinance, the first batch of units released by the developer is required to be at least 20 per cent of the total. Bocom International analyst Alfred Lau said that given its strong financial position, Cheung Kong is unlikely to undercut the prices in the secondary market to speed up sales. == > more: http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/1505769/city-point-pricing-wont-undercut-secondary-market-property

"A pledge from Labour to introduce Rent control" Has been written about in today's SCMP Property section. Another nail being prepared for the coffin ? At the same time: "Asking prices rose 3.6 percent in the four weeks to May 10 - the biggest increase for this period - to an average of GBP 272,003 - up 8.9 percent from a year ago." BofE officials have been expressing more concern about the strength of the property market.

HONG KONG Property : The Waiting Game (again) Property agents in HK are complaining about "Dark Days" There were some hopes that tinkering with the Double Stamp Duty ("cooling measure") might UN-freeze the market. But that is not happening, as per an article in the Property section of today's SCMP: "Only 176 new units have been sold so far this month. It is the lowest since about 80 deals were recorded in June" (soon after the new taxes were imposed. "Assuming a supply of 15,000 new flats a year... the average number of transactions per month should be 1,250." By giving buyers more time to sell (and not pay the double tax), some though transactions would pick up. This has not happened. Buyers and Sellers have very different expectations. And Buyers are not rushing in to pay the (higher) prices sought by sellers in the secondhand market; they are waiting for the developers to bring their new projects to market, and are hoping for big discounts. It seems that no one wants to be first (among the developers) to test the market's appetite for new properties. Cheung Kong began pre-sale activity for its City Point project in Tseun Wan, with 1,717 flats to sell, giving it an (unpriced) "soft launch" three weeks ago. The market is waiting with baited breath to see what happens. In past times like this, SHKP would jump in with somewhat cheap prices on one of their flagship projects, and then quickly raise them when the buyers appeared. CK has plenty of experience, so the other developers now seem content to let them take the lead. CK also has a big project at LOHAS Park, and so maybe that one will be their lead play. We should know soon.

Hard Reforms led to Filipino Growth - says article in the WSJ by Cesar Purisma, finance secretary for the Philippines (the World Economic Forum on East Asia will be held in Manila between May 21 - May 23) "After years of cheap and easy credit, emerging markets will now have to compete for funds to fuel development and woo investors..." "Sadly, reform is taking a back seat as the memory of the (GFC) crisis fades..." "This is a shame. Reforms have the power to fundamentally alter a country's economic destiny." "Since coming to office in 2010, Aquino has turned around a country once written off as : 'the sick man of Asia' " "Our reforms have been wide-ranging:" + Sin Tax Law: raising levies on alcohol and tobacco + Revamp of commonplace procedures Philippines has 7% growth, making it the third fastest growing country in Asia. The country was upgraded to investment status (by Fitch, S&P, Moodys) in 2013. A further upgrade to BBB by S&P came in May 2014. The country jumped 26 places in WEF's global competitiveness index since 2010, and 30 places in IFC's doing business index. More work needs to be done on implementing commonsense reforms, and "we need to put reform back on the agenda. without it, growth is fleeting."

HIS BULLISH ARGUMENT This suggests that the often put forward academic standards in terms of valuing the housing market affordability ratios such as X3.5 salary towards the likely path for the UK house prices does not take into account that of new demand against new supply trend that implies affordability ratios look set to be pushed ever higher to new trend extremes, and therefore supporting long-term rising price trends for UK house prices in real terms, i.e. expensive UK house prices look set to be here to stay for as long as the lack of new supply exists, especially as the UK population is expected to grow by at least another 5 million over the next 10 years and probably nearer 6 million which demands at least an extra 2.5 million homes to be built which is set against an realistic estimated construction of just 1.4 million new homes, which means UK over crowding is going to continue to get much worse and thus drive house prices ever higher. The bottom line is Britain's over crowding ratio insures that no matter what the arguments are put forward by academics that many people just cannot afford to buy so house price rises must be unsustainable, instead the population growth fundamentals are such that their argument just does not matter, the only thing that can effect this fundamental trend is if the UK literally doubled the number of houses built per year, and even then it would not result in a fall in house prices but tend to index house prices to inflation. But off course that is not going to happen, the UK is not going to build anywhere near 300,000 homes per year . . . The truth about the the UK housing market as illustrated at length in the new UK Housing Market ebook (free download ETA 21st May 2014) and excerpted below is that of continuing exponential inflation resulting in average UK house prices being far from the bubble stage - The implications of the real trend in UK house prices are: 1. The forecast real terms trend trajectory of June 2010 proved remarkably accurate in terms of mapping out where UK house prices would likely bottom several years later both in terms of price and time. Thus this indicator will again play a pivotal role in the extension for my existing forecast. 2. This supports my long standing view that the UK housing bull market can be sustained for the WHOLE of the remainder of this decade (6 years) and probably beyond. 3. That my existing expectations for a 10% per annum trend trajectory is more than sustainable, in fact the average rise in UK house prices over the next 6 years could easily exceed 80%! Which translates into an average of over 13% per annum that is well beyond anything that most housing market commentators, academic economists and journalists who think they are economists can comprehend today.

Carbon Junkie, psst ! How about an avatar? > see suggestions: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19060 == == In edit: Saw yours. Good choice !

"UK house building was half that of his own country, Canada, despite the UK having a population twice the size." - Carney Hmm. Why ? Nadeem explains this comment (sort of): ... immigration (?) - and* Mark Carney's statements are pure smoke and mirrors back covering, it's just so that when he leaves for his next job he can point out to his future employer that he did warn of x,y,z when the truth will be that in actions he did the exact OPPOSITE to INFLATE the housing bubble. Understand this fundamental truth of the British economy - Inflating the housing bubble is the ONLY thing that can prevent the British economy from collapsing ! The BANKS! The BANKS! are STILL BANKRUPT! There is NO WAY, ZERO chance of the Bank of England acting to burst Britain's housing bubble instead they will act to SUSTAIN it! Perhaps Mark Carney has only just realised this fundamental fact that his job is as it was when he was the Governor of the Central Bank of Canada was to INFLATE housing bubbles for that is what he did for Canada and the primary reason why he was hired by the British Government to INFLATE UK house prices so that the debt slaves fall for the illusion of increased wealth and go and borrow more for consumption and pay ADDITIONAL high taxes such as Stamp Duty. The dynamics of the ever inflating housing bubble are not by chance but by design! We have high Immigration by DESIGN, we have LOW house building by DESIGN - None of it is by chance as I will illustrate further in this article... === *"and": that the average size of households has continued to shrink falling from 3.1 in 1960 to just 2.25 in 2013 (one of the lowest in the world) as a consequence of the increase in single person households and single parent families (thanks for destroying the UK family, PTB !)

It is an UNconfirmed Price Jump: House prices jump £10000 in five weeks as Bank threatens to cap mortgages Telegraph.co.uk - ‎32 minutes ago‎ The price of an average home increased by nearly £10,000 between April and May, the biggest month-on-month cash increase ever recorded. Meantime, BDEV's stock price is sliding...

Must be healthier too. If you grow it, you control it: Can keep GMO out, and dangerous fertilizers too. The food we buy at the supermarket is increasingly "weaponized"

Very good, Happy. Thanks for the longer term charts. I do agree that outside the period of 2000-2014, the relationship of Gold-to-Debt may have shifted. So it is good to see more data on a chart. Having said that, I don't think the chart goes back far enough: - so I have added a Gold price section derived from THIS CHART, - and here's what I got: Your chart started in Jan. 1980, just as the Gold price was peaking. So if you take the data back further, you will see that Gold prices and debt levels converge sometime (again?) sometime in the early 1970's. And Gold might even be BELOW the debt levels, when Gold was priced at $35-41 per ounce. I will comment on this further when I have more time, but I certainly think the relationship between these two things is valid, mainly because the amount of Govt Debt in the economy is also a measure of how much money, and how much spending power is in the economy. Do not forget: in a debt based monetary system: One man's dollar debts, are another man's dollar wealth; and if there is more wealth extent, it will likely inspire more spending, and eventually higher Gold prices. I do appreciate the charts and the discussion here

BDEV may soon test Key Support near 350P UKX never made it to $7,000 - and a slide seems to have started already ... UKX-10d : BDEV-10d Meantime, BDEV is getting hammered today, as it breaks Short Term support ! (UK) UKX- : 6,838. -40.29 : - 0.59% BDEV: 358.6P -18.40 : -4.88% (US) SPY- : 1,866. -22.23 : -1.18% IWM- : 108.04 - 1.58 : -1.44% XLF - : $21.68 - 0.29 : -1.32%

: : : :

A NEW SERIES of short videos discussing Gold and Gold share Charts is planned These will be carried on the new Green Energy Channel :: ( Link ) Here is the first: "Gold Low before end of July... $500 of easy upside" Listen to the explanation of the recent Gold vs Debt chart, here: Comment: "Gold Low before the End of July 2014..." "With $500 of Easy upside." And that's only if Gold climbs back to the level suggested by outstanding US$ debt. As the debts climb, the upside increases. And if the Gold price moves back to the Top of the Channel, there is $1,000 -1,200 of upside. Or in other words: Gold could rise to $2,300-2,500, perhaps within the next year. Experts like Jim Sinclair and Eric Sprott have predicted gold will hit $2,000 within 2014, so a huge price move may arrive quickly, once the Low is in place."

New relative indicator : Gold looks cheap GLD-to-TLT Ratio (that's Gold-to- Bonds): It suggests that GLD may be set for a good rally, especially if Bonds continue to rise. Here they are on the same chart ... update: start-14May2010

well done. I will pick this up on another thread as well: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16127

Wheelock - HK-20 : I think (my old friend) Peter Woo, the chairman, has been an active buyer of stock not long ago. I know for a fact that he is a clever guy, and if he's buying it is likely to be a genuine opportunity

Hong Kong Property - "Cheapest in the World," says article in the HK Standard Today's paper included an article by Martin Hennecke where he writes about the "cheapness" of HK Property. In this case, he is talking about Property stocks - which trade at the biggest discount to NAV on the planet: Regional NAV Premium/ Discount - from biggest discount to largest premium Country ==== : Prem/Disc. Hong Kong -- : -35.0 % China--------- : -19.7 % Singapore---- : - 8.4 % Cont. Europe : - 6.4 % U.K. ----------- : - 5.8 % U.S. ----------- : - 2.0 % Australia ----- : + 2.0 % Japan -------- : +24.5 % ===== GLOBAL Ave.: -3.82% "Implies an attractive arbitrage opportunity..."; But: "...The sector can be a minefield," says Hennecke. "It can be argued that the undervaluation is due to the market anticipating a sharp drop in local prices. But the reality is that properties - for the most part - are still being bought and sold at market prices."

"OTP" is still complaining (on AX) about the "absurd lack of parity" at TLB. To whom does one complain about "unfair" practices?? (he wonders) ======= "Chen Yongjie: Owners' attitude is softened." Yet: "LOTUS MANSION Taikoo Shing broke the new highest record." I'm not buying the "softening" argument, especially when it is asserted along with a report of Record Prices (!!) I still see this as agents trying to Talk the Market down (softening Owner's prices ideas) But I don't think it is working well at all. I ran into an agent friend today, and we spoke about my own building. We spoke about the bizarre phenomenon where there have been about 300 sales in the "New" Towers, only something like 3 secondhand sales in the "Old" Towers at The Long Beach. It is weird especially because prices of the New Properties are about 10-15% higher than the "old" properties - Buyers are paying up, to buy the higher priced, but near identical flats. In fact they were completed at the exactly same time in 2004. The developer has held back sales on 5 "new" towers until late 2013, and is very slowly launching in packages of about 20-40 flats a time, those that are left. Why so few sales of secondhand? The problem is that bank valuations are too low - about 12-15% lower than the prices the Developer has set for the "New" Towers. Propective buyers do not want to pay much more than the Bank Valuations, and very very few owners are willing to contempate what they call: "ridiculously low" Bank valuations. So almost no transactions are getting done. The developer likes the "stalemate", since it has been selling 2-5 "new" properties a week, even while the secondary market stagnates. They are able to do that, because the banks accept the developers "discounted" price as being a fair Bank Valuation - but only in the "new" Towers. In effect, the Bank Valuations are "rigged" to benefit the developer. And no one seems to care - apart from the prospective sellers in the secondhand market, who suffer in silence so far. With a 3-4% commission on "new" properties, agents are able to talk Buyers into paying the Developers (higher) prices. But they are much less successful in talking Owners down to the much lower bank valuations. Only about three (desperate?) Owners have caved in since November. I suspect there are many other Buildings and Owners stuck in the same bind. But the stalemate, and the way it benefits the Developers was never so clear as it is at The Long Beach.

It's TIME !: For Gold and GoldEdge It's TIME... To start preparing for a Major Low in Gold Prices. I plan to promote GEI more, and to help do that I have launched a new Blog on Wordpress : http://GoldEdge.Wordpress.com This will carry a few Highlights every week from DrBubb's Diary. Any links to it will be appreciated ! GEI will remain the Main place to read and post comments. As the Gold price rises, I think we will see Hits and Posting activity pick up on GEI> There's also a new "Favorite Gold Stock" thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19047

TWO GOLD CHARTS Long term versus Debt ... image : source Gold versus Gardening > thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16127