drbubb

You could be right. The next two weeks are still a time of seasonal weakness, or quietude

Q / Comment: Before August 2012 the Shanghai futures exchange didn't exist. Now it has 180 mts (?) and you say that the stock is incredibly low and therefore the price of silver will go up??? How is that incredibly low???? It's 180 mts (?) higher than two years ago!! And from August 2012 to February 2013, when the SFE bought all that silver, the price first went up, and then down. At the end of the 6 months period it was where it started, at about $28/oz. (Newby) A : = > http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19306&page=7

Another Silver Bear : Nicole Elliott in today's SCMP "Is Silver set to slide?", she asks "When investors buy something because it is cheap, they tend to forget it can get cheaper . Spot silver could be about to prove the point... A drop to the $10 level is a real prospect" She says: + Silver is "below the top of a sideway triangle, and stuck beneath a very long term resistance", + It is below a (falling) long term resistance line (near $21) + Below the "watershed level" - about $26 == > SCMP, page B2 She did not mention: + Seasonal factors, after August is usually very bullish + The high level of commercial shorts (drinking the same Kool-Aid) + The potential Supply squeeze developing in China == It takes two (views) to tango (and create a trading market) . I reckon she is way too Bearish, as are many in the Silver market. And with the low inventory levels, especially in Shanghai, the market is very vulnerable to a Supply Squeeze, probably before the end of the year. And we could even see $25-26 tested... (and broken?)

Silver 'fix' ends after 117 years today as price goes electronic Chicago Tribune-Aug 15, 2014 (from Friday) The silver-pricing method begun during Queen Victoria's reign ends Thursday as the $5 trillion market shifts to a more transparent process and ... . . . An electronic, auction-based mechanism will replace a ritualized negotiation among a few traders that's been in place for 117 years. Silver becomes the first of the precious-metals markets to ditch a daily "fixing" procedure where dealers agree to a price over the telephone. Revamps also are planned this year for fixings in gold, platinum and palladium. Coeur Mining, the largest U.S. silver producer, says changing an outdated pricing method will enhance confidence in a benchmark used as a reference for trading and valuing holdings. Since the 2008 financial crisis, regulators have uncovered price-rigging in everything from interbank-loan rates to currencies, increasing pressure on tradition-bound commodity markets from gold to oil to expand transparency. "Everybody these days is worried that if something isn't totally transparent that there's going to be litigation at some stage if somebody's not happy with it," said Steve Garwood, a trader at Baird & Co., a precious-metals dealer in London, who first took part in fixings more than 30 years ago. Here's What the New Silver Price Fix Means for Prices Money Morning-Aug 14, 2014 Silver pricing could definitely stand to gain from more transparency, following a century-old mechanism that involved three banks negotiating prices in secret. The three member banks were facing lawsuits after accusations arose that they were manipulating prices, so it's no wonder that some are expecting a free market transition. "It certainly isn't a free market in that case," said Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth. "Without proper price discovery you don't have a healthy market." . . . The three banks set the price Wednesday at $19.90 an ounce, up 2.1 percent for the year, compared with 27 9/16 pennies of old British money in 1897, when fixings started at the London office of Sharps & Wilkins, with former dealers Mocatta & Goldsmid, Pixley & Abell, and Samuel Montagu & Co. For the first century, those conducting the fixing carried order books to a closed room each weekday at noon, spending about 10 minutes setting a price. The group's appointed chairman, from one of the banks, adjusts prices to balance buying and selling. From 1999, traders were permitted to check with clients by telephone to change orders before the price was fixed. Metal changes hands at the settled price. . . . Under the new system, participants will enter orders electronically to trade at a proposed starting price, according to Chicago-based CME. If there's no match between buy and sell orders, an algorithm picks a new price for a second round of bidding. Each round should last no more than 30 seconds, and those taking part will be able to see volumes of bids and offers, the CME said. Participants also will be able to see total volumes traded at the set price. Coeur, which sells all its silver through or using the fix, says it expects the switch to an electronic system to be successful. Other than amending agreements to include the new reference method, there won't be any change to business, it said.

Malca-Amit Opens 2000 Tonnes Gold Vault In Shanghai = = Do you think there might be some plans to fill it up? == == A gold vault that can store 2,000 metric tons, double China’s projected consumption this year, opened in Shanghai this month as owner Malca-Amit Global Ltd. seeks to benefit from rising demand in Asia’s largest economy. The facility is the biggest for the Hong Kong-based company, and it can also store diamonds, jewelry and art, Joshua Rotbart, precious metals general manager, said in an interview. The site could hold bullion worth about $82.5 billion at today’s price, Bloomberg calculations show. China’s total demand may reach 1,000 tons in 2013, the World Gold Council forecasts. Consumption in China may increase 29 percent to a record this year, overtaking India as biggest user as lower prices and higher incomes spur demand, according to the WGC. The investment in Shanghai’s new free-trade zone reflects a shift in world demand away from the U.S. and Europe toward Asia. Demand for gold jewelry, bars and coins in Greater China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam is now about 60 percent of the global total, up from 35 percent in 2004, according to HSBC Holdings Plc. . . . “There’s going to be more gold coming to China,” Rotbart said on Nov. 5. “This place can be used as a trade hub basically, so foreign banks can trade with domestic banks within this facility, saving costs and time.” The Shanghai vault is targeted at international and Chinese financial institutions, as well as the arts community, Rotbart said at the Waigaoqiao free-trade area, where firms have fewer restrictions on investment and foreign-exchange requirements. Apart from Hong Kong and Singapore, where capacity is 1,000 tons each, Malca-Amit also has storage space in New York, Zurich, Geneva, London and Bangkok. “We expect big demand from foreign banks and we are talking to a few,” said Rotbart. “It’s a step forward for them because it puts less limit on how they operate in China.” == > http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-10/gold-vault-for-2-000-tons-opens-in-shanghai-as-bullion-goes-east.html

Keep posting them, CJ. And maybe say a little bit about how you might use them in your own investing and trading BTW, I see your latest forecasts suggests the usual Seasonal cycle may not lift Gold this year. Any comments on Why it shows that? Would you really SHORT gold as we head into what is usually Gold's best weeks?

KITCO Article Gold Let’s address Harvey and Erb right off the bat. The academics have gained quite a bit of notoriety with their CPI adjusted target of 800 for gold. They’ve even got a trend line in their favor. Next in the Bear Sweepstakes is Team 1000, and these guys actually have a compelling support level (top of the 2008 pattern) to support their case. In fact, if that is a small Symmetrical Triangle (noted by the converging red and green trend lines) forming as opposed to a bottoming pattern, it measures to 1000. But what about Team Gold 2000 & Beyond? Well, they’ve got a large Symmetrical Triangle measurement to 2400. If that is the proper interpretation then even an unsuccessful test of the upper Triangle trend line would bring gold to the very notable resistance shelf (red) around 1500. Indeed, gold’s big picture could require an unsuccessful test there, a renewed decline to the rising lower line and then a bull breakout a year or two down the road. We just don’t know, so let’s not try to force it with our hopes and ideologies. Gold Status: Several options, bullish and bearish. Use the small Sym-Tri upper and lower lines as parameters to bull or bear. These are the big picture technicals only. As with shorter-term charting, we manage the macro fundamentals consistently in NFTRH. == > more: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Tanashian/2014-08-15-HUI-Gold-Silver-Fun-With-Monthly-Charts.html

After today's big Rise in the Centaline Index (+1.8% or more Kowloon), they are going to have to go up again I got an urgent call from an estate agent from Ricacorp who says he has a client who wants to see my Flat tomorrow. I asked him how much over the bank valuation his client might be willing to pay? "I need at least $500,000 over the bank valuation*. If he doesn't think that is the beginning of a conversation, I am not interested in showing my flat." When he was unable to give me an answer, I suggested he buy a cheaper flat on a lower floor, with a lesser view. Obviously, the Tower will need some big sales, $200K or more over bank valuation, before someone will consider more than that for the superior view. *(BTW, my flat is right at the top of the building, and the view can see over and past neighboring buildings. The bank valuations are based off the 98% of flats which have a lesser view, blocked by neighboring buildings. My flat also has a ceiling which is more than 10% higher than lower floors.) The agent seemed a little bit surprised (and maybe irritated) that I was aware at how much the Centaline index had pushed up. As posted on AX: " JUMPING Joe! Centa-City Leading Index : at 125.66 + 1.34 %, in a single week With the strongest action in: Kowloon : +1.86% > http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm "

GOLD still has its Wild Bulls... Gold Price Forecast for Next Six Months: Buckle Up! EXCERPT I believe the gold bull market is not over, but has merely taken an extended breather. These periods of correction and consolidation can be very healthy for long term bull markets and I see no reason that it will be different for gold this time around. Certainly, the fundamental factors continue to support the argument for higher gold and silver prices. The total level of both government and consumer debt continues to expand, and the debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States and most industrialized nations also continues to push higher. The dollar is slowly losing its status of world reserve currency and the petrol dollar reserve is seriously being called into question. A growing list of nations are signing bilateral trade agreements to bypass the dollar, with both China and Russia turning openly hostile towards the dollar in recent months. We have also seen strong buying emerge at every major dip since the current uptrend in gold started. Weak hands have long been shaken from their positions and the current holders are not easily scared into selling at any sign of price weakness. These factors should help to support gold and push prices higher in the coming months. * * * * On the technical side of things, we see a symmetrical triangle pattern that has developed over the past year. This pattern is easily recognized by the distinct shape created by two converging trendlines. The pattern contains a series of sequentially lower peaks and a series of sequentially higher troughs. Both trendlines act as barriers that prevent the price from heading higher or lower, but once the price breaches one of these levels, a sharp movement often follows. When layered on top of a sector that is already highly volatile and prone to sharp moves in either direction, the resolution of the current symmetrical triangle pattern has explosive potential. We don't yet have solid indication as to which way this movement will be, but my gold forecast remains to the upside for all of the fundamental reasons that were just mentioned. Furthermore, the latest breakout generated a higher high versus the April peak and the price has thus far held up above both key moving averages (100-day and 200-day). The RSI has retreated from overbought levels and has room for another major push, just as gold is heading into its strongest seasonal period of the year. Taken together, these factors lead me to believe that the eventual breakout will be to the upside. Looking at the longer-term chart, we can see that the recent correction makes sense after such a powerful rebound that followed the financial crisis. Furthermore, specific cycles or trends start to emerge that can help us predict the potential scope of gold's next move. First, notice how the 2008 correction retraced 50% of the prior advance. Then gold had an explosive rebound from around $700 to a new high above $1900. This gain of $1,200 was followed by a retracement of around 60% of the move. These two retracement percentages are very close the Fibonacci sequence that is a favorite predictive tool amongst technical chartists. Lastly, note how the 2009-2011 advance of $1,200 was a little more than double the previous advance of $550. If this trend continues, we can expect the next major advance to take the gold price up by $2,400 or more. This would result in a gold price of at least $3,600 during the next upleg, although it is likely to take between two and four years to reach this level. == > Jason Hamlin : http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-forecast-next-six-months-buckle

Is there a London property bubble? Aug 14, 2014 : Talk of a London property bubble is the topic du jour in the city. Kate Allen, property correspondent, debates with investment editor James Mackintosh whether it is a bubble or merely prices reacting rationally to demand outstripping meagre supply. VIDEO : http://video.ft.com/3729884116001/Is-there-a-London-property-bubble-/Editors-Choice Up 20% in the last year... The most in the last decade + Happening while economic growth is near stagnant + Price rises are spreading out... to Greater London + Homebuilding has been restrained while Households have increased + Why do employers have to stay in London? + Affordability for First-time buyers is very poor - near 9x Average Earnings

Silver Watch : CHARTS and DATA Revised thread http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16876& ======= Silver Watch : : SLV-live ============================= Silver Net :: $19.10 x 1.04: $19.86 AGQ : $63.50 x 4000 x 2 = $508,000 : 60c-Ja : $8.12 SLV. : $19.10 x 2500 x 1 = $ 047,500 : 18c-Ja : $2.15 SIL . : $14.40 x 2500 x 1 = $ 036,000 : 10c-Oc : $4.10 ============================= ------------------------------ > $ 591,500 --------------------/ $19.86 = 29,783 oz SLV charts: 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mo : 10d ============================= World Silver Mine Production, 1998-2007 GFMS : Silver Inventories, 1950-2009, CPM : CHARTS and DATA ======= World Silver Mine Production 1998-2007 GFMS : http://www.silver-coin-investor.com/images/mar10h.gif Silver Inventories 1950-2009, CPM : http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj235/jimolsen2/SilverInv-1_zps61d2cfa2.png History of Silver : Annual Prod. : Period Total 3000BC - 600BC : 0.75 million oz : Est. 1.8 Billlion oz 601BC - 1000BC : 1.50 million oz : Est. 2.4 Billlion oz 1001BC-1492BC : 7.00 million oz : Est. 3.4 Billlion oz = Ancient Total : =========== : = 7.6 Billion oz. = 1493 ---1930 : =========== : 15.0 Billion oz = 1931 ---2004 : =========== : 20.1 Billion oz *see 2000-04, below = GRAND Total: =========== : 42.7 Billion oz. > http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/worlds-cumulative-gold-and-silver-production Yr : World-Prod : Scrap.AG : A.Gr.Stocks : St/Prod : 2000 : 587.3 Mn. Oz 2001 : 611.8 Mn. : 2002 : 607.4 Mn. : 2003 : 611.2 Mn. : 2004 : 613.6 Mn.*: 198.6 : 2005 : 639.7 Mn. : 202.5 : 2006 : 642.7 Mn. : 206.0 : 2007 : 666.1 Mn. : 202.9 : 2008 : 683.1 Mn. : 200.7 : 2009 : 713.8 Mn. : 199.7 : 2010 : 750.6 Mn. : 225.5 : 2011 : 754.6 Mn. : 258.7 : 2012 : 792.3 Mn. : 252.6 : 260.0 Mn. : 32.8 % 2013 : 819.6 Mn. : 191.8 : 199.7 Mn. : 24.4 % ===== *Silver Inst., 2004 and after : https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/silver-production/

Complaceny on Silver. Then came China... = = The next Silver squeeze may come from China "A reminder from David P. out of Europe that his target for the initial pulse on silver is well over $60 after the buy signal was recently triggered on the long term MACD below:" a look at one of the incredible inflation charts from David Stockman: > More on Stockman's call: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/8/7_Major_Buy_For_Silver,_David_Stockman_Chart_%26_Market_Turmoil.html > http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?78547-Chinese-Silver-Inventories-Nearly-90-Depleted-At-Shanghai-Futures-Exchange/page2

No Free Lunches? Tell Tesla that

STACKING SILVER (like a madman?) A cool $444K Worth - and here's how ... > see drB's Diary, post #84: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19306&page=5 In reality, I see this move as an arbitrage trade, swapping from NUGT Calls (GDX) to AGQ Calls (SLV), when the Ratio to SLV-to-GDX was at a "cheap" Ratio, just under 70%. How smart is this? Only time will tell... Time, and my Diary as I revisit the trade in the days and weeks to come. BTW, the sell side of the trade, selling NUGT Calls, realized a profit of over 200% on some calls. So some of my ideas do work.

"HK is an Engine for Wealth generation" Long time readers may have seen me comment before that one reason that HK property prices may not come down much, is because "HK is an engine for wealth generation. And with small homes, and limited space (to put things people may buy) there are not many places to invest HK people's strong After-tax cash flow, apart from property." LGMV has made similar comments. People may not have noticed a round-about confirmation of this in today's SCMP Property section. In an article entitled: "Rural Malls lure Global brands", the writer (Yvonne Liu) talks about how global brands are looking for shops in Regional malls, instead of paying the very high rents in "core" shopping areas. Another reason, other than saving on rent, is they are discovering that people in those areas actually have the spending power to pay for the (more expensive) global brands. As the article put it: "Many residents have repaid their entire mortgage loans." If you have repaid your home loan, then HK is a pretty cheap place to live (compared with other major global cities), and the savings will just build and build. Many potential buyers have been "tricked" by silly forecasts in the newspapers into waiting to buy. They were "promised" 20-30% lower prices, and these did not arrive. It is possible they will come back strongly into the secondary market, especially if banks stop trying to depress the market, with unrealistic bank valuations. I am already seeing signs of the Values being pushed higher.

The AX revamp looks like a big fail More ads, no faster to process pages. Hard to read now, and very few are posting. No value for the customers, from what I see.... (The Market's pushing higher, so I posted this): Secondary Market Prices Rising Yes, it is finally happening, Dorothy. Even the SCMP is writing about it, in an article entitled: "BUYERS SHIFT to secondary Market" "The performance of the secondary market improved last week, with homebuyers quickening their decisions." There were 233 transactions at 50 housing estates, up 32 percent from the week earlier. The bargains are gone, and the Sellers no longer respond to lowball bids: "Previously, potential buyers hoped to get a bargain by asking for a price cut of HK$200,000. But most transactions are now only about HK$20,000 to HK$50,000 lower than the asking prices." And Bank Valuations are rising too, up 1-1.5% in the estate where I live, since the end of July.

Silver - A "Buying Buffer" approach An interesting little video from Don Harrold, wherein he suggests awaiting DROPS of 2.72% (that's $1.36 on a $20 Price), as a trigger to buy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_inSIcy-wp0 It happened 44 Times in over 500 trading days He compares the LOD with the previous day's close. (I think I spotted a glitch in his system - but basically, he wants to buy oversold markets.) He also talks about "waiting for 5% retracements"

"Thats a big call" Yeah, based on: + Seasonality : after August, it is very positive + Inflation : could be rising in the 2nd half + The long term trendline : it is on/near it Now ! BTW, I am not promising an immmediate Rally, but that is possible An odd Gap: GDX (Gold stocks) versus AGQ (2X Bull on Silver) ... update : 6mos : A genuine opportunity perhaps? I bought Jan. 2015 calls on AGQ - to go "long" silver, and "play" this arbitrage.

It's TIME to Rediscover Silver - v.2 I haven't spoken or written much about Silver over the past 2-3 years. That may be about to change. With Silver now trading below $20.00, and SLV near $19... It is probably Time to Start thinking seriously about Buying Silver once Again I think NOW is good time to put Silver back near the Top of your Watch List, and start layering in some positions. You can do it, by purchasing silver metal, buying Silver-related etfs, or buying CALLS on SLV ... or maybe on AGQ, a 2X Bull etf on Silver. You can use a combination of these methods, with your choice depending on what is the easiest way for you to hold it - and whether you are comfortable with the volatility inherent in Options. I do think that an important element of your holdings should probably be in physical metal, or a good phsyical silver backed etf, like PSLV - the Sprott Silver etf. Sym.: 12-31-13 : 08-08-14 : % Chg. ===== Nugt : -- $27.41 : -- $46.66 : +70.23 % : 3X Bull etf on Gold shares Gdxj : -- $31.05 : -- $41.83 : +34.72 % : Junior Gold Miners GDX : -- $21.13 : -- $26.78 : +26.74 % : Senior Gold Miners SIL - : -- $11.20 : -- $14.18 : +26.60 % : Silver shares Phys : -- $09.96 : -- $10.88 : + 9.24 % : Sprott phsyical Gold etf GLD : -- 116.12 : -- 126.19 : + 8.67 % : Gold etf PSlv : -- $07.57 : -- $08.06 : + 6.47 % : Sprott phsyical Silver etf SLV :: -- $18.71 : -- $19.19 : + 2.66 % : Silver etf AGQ : -- $63.04 : -- $63.82 : + 1.24 % : 2X Bull etf on Silver ====================== :

(Duplicated here - for the record): I Called the Top in Silver at $48-50 : old thread-Apr.2011 Now I want you to consider getting back into Silver ! TIME to start layering in some Silver positions? I think whether or not the Timing is right may depend on DBA / CRB, which I am now watching closely.

I think it can penetrate both downtrend/ resistance lines, and move higher. But I cannot guarantee it, and will monitor it closely to see if the price move meets my expectations. If not, Gold should start moving lower early next week - But i think it can instead move higher. In the end, the market will make up its own mind, and I can only watch, and maybe trade, when I see an opportunity, or a risk One trade I might do, is buy some more NUGT calls, if GDX moves slowly, with big drama, to support

Barratt - Property Bear Market confirmation is Looming In the past I have used the crossover of the 76d and 252d-MA's as a confirmation of a change in the UK Property Market. A fresh signal is looming BDEV.L / Barratt Development ... 10-years : 5-years : 2-yrs : 6mos BDEV closed Friday at 334P, and the 76d-MA is about to cross the 252d-MA at 360P. BTW, an even better confirmation would be rollovers in the 252d and 377d MA's, to point down. We cannot rule out a last gasp rally before that happens. (It would probably need to start soon.)

Gold is a Mid-range drifter now: ... and is at the Top of a Minor channel

None of this matters all the time the virtuous circle continues of billions in Fed money driving down spreads/rates across the board... but when investors get itchy fingers and decide to sell, this happens... As Bloomberg reports, the $8.2 billion of risk-sharing securities sold in the last year by government-controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can shift their losses from homeowner defaults to bond buyers. One slice of a deal issued in May traded at 95.7 cents on the dollar yesterday, down from 99.7 cents at the end of last month, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. A plunge like this in one specific mortgage bond as small doors and large crowds do not play well with one another.

( ODD pages ) : Bitcoin : Broken below uptrend channel, and looking for support : ======= Charts: Bitcoins LIVE : BTC:1-year : 4-mos : 10d : Ticks : BtcWisdom : BTC-24hours BTS - Frozen / Bitcoins, on Bitstamps ; 10-Days: http://tinyurl.com/bts-10d : 6-mos ================ Gold / USD / china gold // : : AG - T + D / Calculations : > SGE - Site : http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/index.htm Calculations: AG-Shanghai : 4,200 RMB/kg (ct. is 15 kg) / CNY exch. Rate / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (I observed a discount of about 20 cents) ====================== ( EVEN Pages ): xx