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SLIDE Buy-to-Let: RETURN ... with Transaction charges on Purchase to Lease Out ================= 1 BR FLAT : 59 sq.m. EXAMPLE A: Estimated Return, renting a Property bought at PHP 8.0mn > for 7% Gross Yield =========== : --PHP-- : Monthly : At 59 sm : Cost------------ : 8,000 K : x 7.0% Yield-- : 560,000 : 46,667 : 790.9 /sm VAT, 3% -------- : 16,800 : 01,400 : Only 3%, not 12% at this level of income Comm.---------- : 93,334 : 07,778 : 2 months, est. ??? too high ? Mgmt. Fee----- : 70,800 : 05,900 : 100.0 /sm, estimated R.E. tax, at SS. : 23,600 : 01,967 : 400.0 /sm, p.a. est. =================== : ====== : Sum of Costs - : 204,534 : 17,045 : 288.9 /sm, est. Pretax Profit -- : 355,466 : 29,622 : 502.1 /sm, est. = 4.44% Inc.Tax, Est. --- : 088,867 : 07,406 : est, at 25% ??? too high ? Aftertax Profit - : 266,599 : 22,217 : 323.1 /sm, est. = 3.33% EXAMPLE B: For Owner-occupier Mgmt. Fee------ : 70,800 : 05,900 : 100.0 /sm, estimated R.E. tax, at SS- : 23,600 : 01,967 : 400.0 /sm, p.a. est. =================== : ====== : Running Cost-- : 94,400 : 07,867 : = HKD 1,386 monthly Utilities----------- : 12,000 : 01,000 : Internet, comms : 15,000 : 01,250 : Total Costs ---: 121,400 : 10,117 : = HKD 1,761 monthly ============================================== (Footnote): MONTHLY RENTAL Costs compared (+ other items too) LOC : Price/sm: Rent/mo :R/sm (size) : Yield% : RtCost : IncTax : CapGn.: favs === H. K. : $20,660 : $6,198 : $51.65 (120) : 3.00% : 2.77% : 12.16% : N /A - : LL Jap . : $11,466 : $6,341 : $52.84 (120) : 5.53% : 8.51% : 01.70% : 15.0% : LL Sing. : $17,709 : $4,276 : $35.57 (120) : 2.41% : 4.67% : 15.15% : None? : LL Thai . : $ 3,282 : $2,065 : $17.20 (120) : 6.29% : 6.89% : 03.80% : 37.0% : LL Phil.. : $ 2,807 : $1,982 : $16.51 (120) : 7.06% : 18.2% : 05.13% : 32.0% : LL Indo . : $ 2,544 : $1,794 : $14.95 (120) : 7.05% : 26.4% : 20.00% : 20.0% : Neut. Malay : $ 2,629 : $1,282 : $10.67 (120) : 4.87% : 5.50% : 22.42% : N /A - : Tn Taiw . : $ 7,112 : $ 1,117 : $09.30 (120) : 1.57% : 12.3% : 20.00% : 20.0% : LL ===== U K . : #24,252 : #5,078 : #42.24 (120) : 2.09% : 5.03% : 00.00% : 28.0% : LL U K*. : $39,773 : $8,327 : $69.27 (120) : 2.09% : 5.03% : 00.00% : 28.0% : LL U S . : $15,284 : $6,553 : $54.64 (120) : 4.29% : 9.07% : 30.00% : 5.00% : Tn Aus . : $ 8,717 : $3,592 : $35.88 (100) : 4.94% : 7.00% : 11.63% : 45.0% : Neut. N Z .. : $ 3,559 : $2,856 : $23.79 (120) : 8.02% : 5.11% : 01.74% : N /A - : Neut. Urug. : $ 2,589 : $1,590 : $13.25 (120) : 6.14% : 14.0% : 10.50% : 12.0% : LL ===== *Pounds conv. to Dollars at US$1.64 per GBP >Source: http://www.globalpro...n/Rental-Yields

(AGENT's COMMENTS on my figures): "Very Useful" Please see my calculation below: Purchase Costs: ------------------------ List Price: 7,142,857.14 ---------------------- ++12% VAT: 857,142.85 Total Selling Price with VAT: PHP 8 million Add Other charges ranging from 4-5% average of 4.5% of the list price : ----------- 7,142,857.14 x 4.5% = 321,428.57 Total Acquision Cost: PHP 8,321,428.57 Sell at 10 million selling price (conservative gross profit at 25%) Broker's commission: 3% of 10 million = PHP 300,000 --- Capital Gains Tax: 6% of 10 million = PHP 600,000 ----------------------------Total Sale Cost : PHP 900,000 Net Proceeds : 10,000,000 - 900,000 = PHP9,100,000 Net Profit: PHP 9,100,000 - PHP 8,321,428.57 = PHP778,571.43 That is : (9.7% net profit from 8 million purchase) Normally the practice in the Philippines is that the buyer pays for the documentary stamps, transfer tax and other fees relating to the transfer of the title from the seller to the buyer. In total this is usually 2.35% (1.5% documentary stamp tax, registration fee 0.25%, legal/notary fee 0.1% and 0.5% transfer tax). Legal fees are usually negotiable depending on which lawyer/notary you are talking to and are negligible. The said assumption is low at only 25% because what's happening for our properties now is that pre-selling or off the plan prices are usually 20% less than the ready ones. "Our company usually raises pre-selling prices by 3-5% annually." Assuming that you bought 4 years from turnover, you would get a cumulative increase of 3-5% for 4 years. For simple calculation, let’s assume that the 8 million property appreciated by 20% 4 years after purchase: 8 million pesos x 20% = 1.6 million Based on this computation, your property will appreciate by 1.6 million in 4 years time and a similar pre-selling property will be sold at 9.6 million by our company in a similar location. Let us not forget, however, that ready units have a premium of 20% over pre-selling ones so we have to consider that for your purchase because it is already ready for turnover: 9.6 million x 20% = 1,920,000 difference from pre-selling to ready for occupancy (RFO) This will now be your selling price: 11,520,000 Sell at 11,520,000 million selling price (gross profit at 44%): Broker's commission : 3% of 10 million = PHP 345,600 Capital Gains Tax-----: 6% of 10 million = PHP691,200 ---------------------------Total Sale Cost: PHP 1,036,800 ---------Net: 11,520,000 – 1,036,800 = PHP10,483,200 Net Profit: PHP10,483,200 - PHP 8,321,428.57 = PHP2,161,771.43 That is : (27.02% net profit from 8 million purchase) Please take note that these computations are more on the conservative side because there are times when our company have two price increases in one year depending on the demand and the type of development that we put in (like what we have for Makati where a 60-billion peso redevelopment plan is in place to uplift Makati and raise the standard of living there). Also, I did not compound the price increase for the pre-selling rates for the 4-year computation, instead I just simply multiplied it straight by 4. (5% multiplied by 4 years = 20% increase) A... is right : There is no income tax on the net profit for individual investors except if you are a developer who is engaged in the business of developing and selling real estate then you have to pay income tax because you are primarily engaged in that business and the flats are considered your goods. I hope this gives you more insight on how our properties work in the Philippines === > From a Manila based agent: R.

SLIDE S&P: TAXES ... and Transaction charges on Purchase and Sales =========== (Based on this list) > http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Philippines/Taxes-and-Costs + VAT on new purchases - Over PHP 3.199 (?) million + "Capital Gains" tax : a flat 6% on the Gross Sales price + Income tax - depends on your income level, could be XX -XX% + Property tax - depends on assessed value / Examples (?) == == Normal transaction costs + Commission on Sale, 2nd-hand : 3-5% - paid by Seller + Commission on Rental Contract : XX% - paid by Tenant/Landlord Overall Summary : Roundtrip: 12.475% - 16.75% / Buyer: 2.0%-4.25% / Seller: 10.5%-12.5% Compare : HK (3.5-7.75%) / UK (3.88-12.26%) / Singapore (3.15-6.45%) / Malaysia (3.4-6.75%) > http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Philippines/Buying-Guide === === EXAMPLE #1 Roundtrip Costs - Property bought at PHP 8.0mn > Sold at PHP 10.0mn (+25%) ====== --PHP-- Cost----- : 8,000K : Already includes 12% VAT Comm.-- : 0,000K : (thru broker's agent) Legal---- : 0,000K : (thru broker's agent) Transfer- : 0,060K : at 0.75% DeedofS. : 0,020K : at 0.25%, normally 0.225-0.50% ============== Total ---- : 8,080K : COST, Net Sale---- : 10,000K : Cap.Gn-- : 0,600K : At 6% of Sales price Comm.-- : 0,400K : At 4%, normally 3-5% StampTx : 0,150K : At 1.5% (buyer pays?) Legal---- : 0,000K : ??? ============== Total ---- : 8,850K : SALE, Net Profit---- : 0,770K : PROFIT, pre-tax : 38.5 % of $2Mn Inc.Tax--- : 0,246K : 32% on income over PHP 500K (( NO TAX to pay, see next post )) NetProfit : 0,524K : PROFIT, after-tax : 26.2 % of $2Mn OVERALL : a 25% Gain turned into a 6.55% Gain (note: the 6% Cap-Gains Tax, and the Commissions kill most of the smaller gains) EXAMPLE #2 Roundtrip Costs - Property bought at PHP 8.0mn > Sold at PHP 12.0mn (+50%) ====== --PHP-- Cost----- : 8,000K : Already includes 12% VAT Comm.-- : 0,000K : (thru broker's agent) Legal---- : 0,000K : (thru broker's agent) Transfer- : 0,060K : at 0.75% DeedofS. : 0,020K : at 0.25%, normally 0.225-0.50% ============== Total ---- : 8,080K : COST, Net Sale---- : 12,000K : Cap.Gn-- : 0,720K : At 6% of Sales price Comm.-- : 0,480K : At 4%, normally 3-5% StampTx. : 0,180K : At 1.5% Legal---- : 0,000K : ??? ============== Total ---- :10,620K : SALE, Net Profit---- : 2,550K : PROFIT, pre-tax : 63.8 % of $4Mn Inc.Tax--- : 0,816K : 32% on income over PHP 500K (( NO TAX to pay, see next post )) NetProfit : 1,734K : PROFIT, after-tax : 43.3 % of $4Mn OVERALL : a 50% Gain turned into a 21.7% Gain

SLIDES : PRICE Comparisons ====== Global Property prices - in US Dollars per Square Foot - cheap for a quality CBD ... PB : Phil.-Mak. = Philippines, Makati : average prices = PHP 128,730/sm = HKD 2,091 psf, Net ................. : Q4-2014: PHP 144,500/sm / (10.73 X 44) = US$306 = HKD 2,372 psf 4 / Price Levels - USD/per SM : HKD/per SF / ============= + H.K. /Midlevels- : US $27,771* HKD$15,000 /.75= HKD$20,000, Net + H.K. /Average--- : US $20,660* HKD$11,159 /.75= HKD$14,879 + H.K. /NT areas - : US $13,885* HKD$ 7,500 /.75= HKD$10,000 ============== + Phil. /Makati--- : US $ 2,903 : HKD $ 2,090 : HK-ave/ Makati : Ratio : 7.12 + London, PrimeC: US $32,745 : HKD$23,576 + London ------------ : US $20,660 : HKD$14,875 + US / Manhattan : US $22,927 : HKD$16,507 + US / NY-Metro-- : US $15,284 : HKD$11,004 + US / Average---- : US $07,033 : HKD$ 5,064 + Singapore--------- : US $17,709 : HKD$12,750 + Malaysia / K.L. : US $ 3,980 : HKD $ 2,866 + Malaysia---------- : US $ 2,629 : HKD $ 1,893 ============== > main source : http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Singapore/square-meter-prices 5 / Comparative Price growth PROPERTY Appreciation Over 10 Years + Hong Kong : +160.3% + Taiwan----- : + 87.8% + Singapore- : + 77.7% + Philippines : + 75.4% + Malaysia--- : + 54.0% + SouthKorea: + 53.4% + Thailand--- : + 24.2% ==== Price Changes, 10 years: http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Philippines/price-change-10-years 6 / DETAIL Comparative prices and yields : Manila vs Hong Kong and Malaysia Location---- : Date-- : Price per SM : Exch. : US$/ SM : HKD/ SFt (x.72) ========== Makati, Phil. : Q2-13 : PHP 128,730 : 43.82 : $ 2,938 : $ 2,115 : 3-BR condo. : 7-8% yield? Malaysia----- : Q3-12 : RM---- 7,939 : 3.029 : $ 2,621 : $ 1,887 : Ave.property : 4.87% yield (22.42% i-tax) Midlevels HK : Q2-13 : HKD160,115 : 7.750 : $20,660 :$14,875 : 120sm MdLv : 3.00% yield (XX % i-tax) ========== > http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Philippines/Price-History 7 / Where to live and invest : Four Newer CBD's in Manila + Makati + Bonifacio Global City, "the Fort" + Circuit city : maybe for the future ? (on Ayala Dr. extension, N. of Makati) + Rockwell Center : a small CBD == / Ermita - the old CBD in Manila has been superceded BONIFACIO Global City : "the Newest CBD" : 20 minutes drive (in little traffic) to the West of Makati : BGC-map Photo showing Bonifacio Global City - more spacial and traffic planning than Makati (all utilities underground, etc.) 3 BR Condos Prices --------------------- : - 4Q-2012 - : - 4Q-2013 - : %chg.'14 : -4Q-2014-: -USD- / HKDpsf /vs. Mak. Location ------ : PHP / SQm : PHP / SQm : Yr-on-yr : PHP / SQm MAKATI CBD : p- 117,950 : p- 134,908 : + 7.11% : p- 144,500 : $ 3,284 / $2,364 :: 100.0% ROCKWELL--- : p- 125,720 : p- 138,768 : + 7.01% : p- 148,500 : $ 3,375 / $2,430 :: 102.8% BGC/The Fort: p- 118,690 : p- 131,760 : + 7.20% : p- 141,250 : $ 3,210 / $2,311 :: 097.8% (USD=PHP44, HKDpsf x $7.75/10.76 = x72%) =========== Average Bonifacio prices are 98% of Makati's CBD

SLIDES : Showing the Surprising Growth in MANILA, and especially in Makati. ====== Why Invest in the Philippines Real Estate (from 2013) (from 2014) 1 / MANILA Property : May not be what you think it is + Manila was seen as "the richest city in Asia", maybe 100 years ago + The Philippines was the 2nd richest country (after Japan) in about 1965 + Was left behind by rapid growth in much of Asia during the late 1960's-1980's + Since 2000 the growth rates for PH has averaged 5-6% p.a. (vs. 4% for HK, ) + Growth in 2013 estimated at 7%, similar to China + Gross Rental Yields are more than double HK's ! + Prices held back by higher mortgage rates (5-6%), and a poorly developed mortgage market + There is now much room for improvement in prices, as the mortgage mkt develops, growth continues 2 / Makati Skyline : clean, larger image / Philippines is now considered an "Investment Grade" country risk Growth of the City, as viewed through Height of skyscrapers http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/1534816.jpg ----------> (Note: most record-breaking skyscrapers were built in Makati) "Tallest Building", LIST of Title Holders - note locations Year : Stories: Height : Building Name 1967 : 018 st.: 070 m. : Ramon Magsaysay Center : Malate 1968 : 022 st.: 090 m. : Manila Pavilion Hotel ------- : Ermita 1989 : 029 st.: 100 m. : Pacific Star Building--------- : Makati 1991 : 038 st.: 138 m. : The Peak Tower------------- : Makati 1992 : 044 st.: 150 m. : Pacific Plaza Condo -------- : Makati 1994 : 041 st.: 162 m. : Rufino Pacific Tower-------- : Makati 1997 : 045 st.: 175 m. : Robinsons Equit. Tower---- : Pasig 1998 : 045 st.: 210 m. : Petron Megaplaza----------- : Makati 2000 : 052 st.: 259 m. : PBCom Tower---------------- : Makati ===== The Philippines now has 88 Skyscapers of 140 meters or higher + Plus 40 more under construction . ===== > source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_in_Metro_Manila 3 / Expected GDP Growth Rates in 2014 + China------ : + 7.5% ("target", Businessweek) + Philippines + 6.5% (Barclays) + Malaysia--- : + 5.5% (The Star) + Singapore- : + 4.4% (Singapore Business Review) + Hong Kong : + 3.5% (BofEA) + U.K.--------- : + 2.7% (Item Club) + U.S.--------- : + 2.8% (I.M.F.) =========== > source : Google searches

Alternative DATA series: BSP "real prices" & JLL / Jones Lang Lasalle Alt.#2 : BSP Manila Index - see Data in post#301 ... PD UPDATE : The JLL Report for Q4-2016 Historical: Colliers : Mak. ====== : : JLL : : ======= : Mak-Mid: Rent : Yield / AveFour = Mak.Mid : Mak. Hi. / BGC.Mid : BGC.Hi. : Rent-mid, BGC: Q4-2015 : 151,300 : 883 : 7.00% / 153,875 = 125,000 : 197,500 / 128,500 : 164,500 : P925 : Q1-2016 : 152,000 : 865 : 6.83% / 158,500 = 127,500 : 200,000 / 137,500 : 169,000 : P900 : Q2-2016 : 147,575 : 855 : 6.95% / 160,000 = 125,000 : 210,000 / 138,500 : 166,500 : P960 : Q3-2016 : 146,485 : 840 : 6.85% / 163,375 = 129,500 : 215,000 / 142,500 : 166,500 : P988 : Q4-2016 : 150,600 : 830 : 6.61% / 166,000 = 132,500 : 217,500 / 145,000 : 169,000 : P??? : Old data midRange Q4-2016 : 132,500 : 780 : 7.06% / 166,000 = 132,500 : 217,500 / 145,000 : 169,000 : P850 : 7.03% Q1-2017 : 135,000 : 790 : 7.02% / 168,625 = 135,000 : 219,000 / 148,500 : 172,000 : P855 : 6.91% see below Q4-2016 : 151,500: 1013: 8.02% / Q1-2017 : 153,000: 1020: 8.00% / ======== Summary : : Q4-2016 > ----------------- Q1-2017 RENT ==== : Q4-2016---- : Rent Ave/ Q1-2017--- : Rent Ave / change Makati CBD : P650-P1375: P1013. / P650-P1390: P1020 / +0.69% BGC------------ : P650-P1150: P0900. / P650-P1170: P0920 / +2.22% Cap.Values : Q4-2016--- : CapV Ave/ Q1-2017--- : CapV Ave / change Makati CBD : P105k-P198k: P151.5k / P108k-P198k: P153k / +0.99% BGC------------ : P112k-P155k: P133.5k / P114k-P160k: P137k / +2.62% ==========: ================== Summary Q4-2016 ============ Low-High : Rent : (Prev.) : Low- High: CapVal. / Yield% (Prev.) : Makati mid-r'g: P620-P940 : P780 (P765) /M/ 110k-155k : P132.5k / 7.06% (7.08%) : " " high-end-- : P720-1780 : 1250 (1235) /M/ 175k-260k : P217.5k / 6.90% (6.89%) : BGC------------- : P700-1000 : P850 (P850) /B/ 110k-180k : P145.0k / 7.03% (7.16%) : " " high-end-- : P720-1780 : 1250 (1235) /B/ 148k-190k : P169.0k / 8.88% (8.90%) : Ortigas /Man.: P380-P680 : P530 (P520) /O/ P84k-146k : P115.0k / 5.53% (5.55%) : Alabang ------ : P520-P910 : P715 (P715) /A/ P86k-117k : P101.5k / 8.45% (8.54%) : Quezon City- : P430-P700 : P565 (P555) /Q/ P80k-122k : P101.0k / 6.71% (6.72%) : Change Q3>Q4 BGC/Makati : CapV-Lux: 190.8>193.3k*: + 1.3% / Vac. 6.3%>4.0%>???Q4 ========== > MORE, Q3-2016 post#44 : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20877&page=3 ======================== MAKATI Skyline and Map... skyline-clean : lower Kroma : Top 20 Images : wiki-map The Makati CBD's Skyline can rival cities most anywhere.... Link to here: http://tinyurl.com/PHP-Makati Tallest - most of these Tall buildings are along Ayala Avenue - see Map below > source: Tallest buildings, Metro Manila : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_in_Metro_Manila : source WALKABILITY Concept : Walk this Way, Why Invest in Makati City - from ayalaland MAP: excerpt, Makati Map-Lg : Walking Area / this is the Main CBD now, where most of the property "action" has been MAKATI's Tallest Buildings, at 2013: Buildings mostly on Makati map +plus one with scheduled completion in 2014 - Note recent additions # : Building------------------------------ City : Floors Height Year 1 : PBCOM Tower -------------------------------- Makati 55 : 259 m : 2000 2 : Discovery Primea---------------------------- Makati 68 : 250 m : 2013 3 : Gramercy Residences [CenturyCity] Makati 73 : 250 m : 2012 4 : Knightsbridge Resid, [Century City] Makati 68 : 220 m : 2013 5 : G.T. International Tower------------------ Makati 43 : 217 m : 2002 6 : Petron Megaplaza--------------------------- Makati 45 : 210 m : 1998 7 : San Lorenzo Tower [GB, TRAG]------- Makati 57 : 204 m : 2009 8 : One Rockwell West [One Rockwell]- Makati 55 : 202 m : 2011 9 : One Central------------------------------------- Makati 50 : 195 m : 2013 10 RCBC Plaza Yuchengco Tower------- Makati 46 : 192 m : 2001 11 Alphaland Makati Tower----------------- Makati 35 : 180 m : 2013 12 LKG Tower-------------------------------------- Makati 39 : 180 m : 2000 13 Roxas Triangle Tower I------------------- Makati 51 : 174 m : 2000 14 Robinsons Summit Center-------------- Makati 38 : 174 m : 2001 15 The Enterprise Center Tower I-------- Makati 40 : 172 m : 1998 16 Laguna Tower [Resid. at GB, TRAG] Makati 48 : 171 m : 2008 17 Manila Tower [The Res. at Gr'belt]-- Makati 48 : 171 m : 2010 18 Two RCBC Plaza [RCBC Plaza] ------ Makati 41 : 170 m : 2001 19 The Beacon - Arnaiz Tower------------- Makati 50 : 170 m : 2014 20 One Rockwell East Tower--------------- Makati 45 : 165 m : 2010 . . example of a new Condo: 2? Kroma Tower----------------------------------- Makati 46 : 157 m : 2017 > http://www.emporis.com/statistics/tallest-buildings-makati-Philippines Makati's Elevated Walkway Makati Walking: 10min. / Masterplan-Makati / search: North Makati images The developer, Ayala Land's plans: / History of Makati area #1 Elevated walkways and pedestrian underpasses will be extended and updated. "The city of the future is not about cars, it's about pedestrianization," Meann Dy, head of strategic land banking told broadsheets at a press briefing on March 22. The beginnings of an effective Mass Transit system is in place (Map), but needs investment, and further development:.. PB : Map: Ayala-MTR to Makati CBD : source > Map of Makati --- :: http://img.docstoccdn.com/thumb/orig/36180730.png > Makati Area Map :: http://www.finduniversity.ph/universities/asian-institute-of-management/ > Makati Transport :: http://www.makeitmakati.com/Media/Default/Maps/Downloadables/MakatiTransportation-1.pdf > Makati walkway-- :: http://www.makeitmakati.com/Media/Default/Maps/Downloadables/MakatiWalkway-1.JPG > Guides & Maps-- :: http://www.makeitmakati.com/plan-your-trip/makati-city-maps-and-guides\ > VISA req'ments-- :: http://www.pra.gov.ph/main/srrv_program?page=1 > Asia Xpat thread :: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/152905/manila-and-philippines-property/ PRICE SUMMARY - at Q4-2014: 3 BEDROOM CONDOMINIUM UNIT ------------------- : -4Q-2012- : -4Q-2013- : %chg.'14 : -4Q-2014-: -USD- / HKDpsf /vs. Mak. Location ------ : PHP / SQm : PHP / SQm : Yr-on-yr : PHP / SQm MAKATI CBD. : p- 117,950 : p- 134,908 : + 7.11% : p- 144,500 : $ 3,284 / $2,364 :: 100.0% ROCKWELL-- : p- 125,720 : p- 138,768 : + 7.01% : p- 148,500 : $ 3,375 / $2,430 :: 102.8% BGC/The Fort : p- 118,690 : p- 131,760 : + 7.20% : p- 141,250 : $ 3,210 / $2,311 :: 097.8% (USD=PHP44, HKDpsf x $7.75/10.76 = x72%) =========== >Colliers Int'l : source LINKS : AsiaXpat thread --- :: http://hongkong.asia...pines-property/ Colliers Ph RE Mkt :: https://www.google.com.hk/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=FWIeVqbgEJLD8AfBnpDYBA&gws_rd=ssl#q=colliers+philippines+real+estate : Colliers-Insight Ph. Property News :: http://www.zipmatch.com/blog/ Manila, Big picture :: http://www.corp.at/a...ORP2012_185.pdf : Makati Map SkycraperCity,Phil. :: http://www.skyscrape...splay.php?f=295 : Makati : c : : New-projects : completed : Happenings ,Makiti :: http://www.makeitmak...whats-on/movies LINK to this thread- :: http://tinyurl.com/PHP-Makati

DATA : Peso // Makati Property Price Data, News & Commentary LINKs --> : MAKATI PRIME Landing page / Chat : Tips : Rent : Is it a Bubble? : The Philippines has one of the fastest growing economies in the world, rivaling China with its growth rate, 6-7% p.a. PH is the 4th largest English-speaking country. This thread has a commentary, data, news, charts and maps. Stocks, all data : PSEI : PSE : Both / ali : smph : agi : meg : cpg : shng : Currency Rates : usdPHP ... All Data : 2-years : 6-mos : 10-days / DXY : CNY vsPHP : MYRvsPHP : old : PB : / The following data was derived primarily from the fine Colliers Qtrly report, "the knowledge" / :: RENTING ideas, suggestions :: a special thread for Renting in Makati RENTALS : Makati, Bonifacio, Rockwell Qtr /Year : CapVal.: Yield%: MMidpt: QonQtr : YonYr / Lo - Makati - H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockwell- H / 3Q /2012 : 116.0k : 7.32% : 0,708 : +1.2E% : +5.0E% / 0,525 - 0,890 / 0,568 - 0,850 / 0,677 - 0,950 : 4Q /2012 : 118.0k : 7.32% : 0,720 : +1.69% : +7.0E% / 0,525 - 0,915 / 0,570 - 0,865 / 0,686 - 0,912 : 1Q /2013 : 123.8k : 7.12% : 0,735 : +2.08% : +8.0E% / 0,540 - 0,930 / 0,580 - 0,890 / 0,700 - 0,930 : 2Q /2013 : 128.7k : 7.27% : 0,780 : +6.12% : +11 E% / 0,545 - 1,015 / 0,590 -0,940e/ 0,705 -0,970e: 3Q /2013 : 132.0k : 7.27% : 0,800 : +2.56% : +13.0% / 0,550 - 1,050 / 0,600 - 0,990 / 0,710 - 1,000 : 4Q /2013 : 134.9k : 7.16% : 0,805 : +0.63% : +11.8% / 0,550 - 1,060 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,720 - 1,020 : 1Q /2014 : 136.5k : 7.12% : 0,810 : +0.62% : +10.2% / 0,555 - 1,065 / 0,610 - 1,020 / 0,725 - 1,025 : 2Q /2014 : 138.1k : 7.13% : 0,820 : +1.23% : +5.13% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,625 - 1,025 / 0,740 - 1,030 : 3Q /2014 : 142.8k : 6.97% : 0,830 : +1.22% : +3.75% / 0,570 - 1,090 / 0,630 - 1,035 / 0,790 - 1,090 : 4Q /2014 : 144.5k : 6.96% : 0,838 : +0.96% : +4.10% / 0,575 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,045 / 0,750 - 1,055 : 1Q /2015 : 147.4k : 6.90% : 0,848 : +1.19% : +4.69% / 0,578 - 1,118 / 0,660 - 1,050 / 0,755 - 1,080 : 2Q /2015 : 149.0k : 6.94% : 0,862 : +1.65% : +5.12% / 0,588 - 1,135 / 0,672 - 1,070 / 0,769 - 1,099 : 3Q /2015 : 151.0k : 6.95% : 0,875 : +1.51% : +5.42% / 0,595 - 1,155 / 0,680 - 1,083 / 0,804 - 1,098: 4Q /2015 : 151.0k : 7.02% : 0,883 : +0.91% : +5.37% / 0,600 - 1,166 / 0,688 - 1,094 / 0,814 - 1,094: 1Q /2016 : 152.0k : 6.82% : 0,865 : - 2.04% : +2.00% / 0,590 - 1,140 / 2Q /2016 : 147.6k : 6.95% : 0,855 : - 1.16 %: - 0.11% / 0,580 - 1,130 / 0,660 - 1,050 / 0,800 - 1,100: 3Q /2016 : 146.5k : 6.88% : 0,840 : - 1.75 %: - 4.00% / 0,570 - 1,110 / 0,655 - 1,040 / 0,790 - 1,080: 4Q /2016 : 150.6k : 6.67% : 0,837 : - 0.36 %: - 5.21% / 0,560 - 1,100 / 0,640 - 1,020 / 0,780 - 1,070 : 1Q /2017 : 154.6k : 6.39% : 0,823 : - 1.67 %: - 4.86% / 0,560 - 1,080 / 0,630 - 1,000 / 0,760 - 1,050 : 2Q /2017 : 161.5k : 6.08% : 0,818 : - 0.71 %: - 4.33% / 0,540 - 1,080 / 0,610 - 1,010 / 0,760 - 1,010 : 3Q /2017 : 167.0k : 5.81%: 0,809 : - 1.10 %: - 3.70% / 0,530 - 1,080 / 0,600 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,040 : 4Q /2017 : 174.7k : 5.50%: 0,800 : - 1.11 %: - 4.42% / 0,530 - 1,070 / 0,620 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,020 : 1Q /2018 : 180.4k : 5.35% 0,805: +0.63%: - 2.19% / 0,530 - 1,080 / 0,620 - 1,000 / 0,730 - 1,020 : Qtr /Year : Mak-Mid.Yield : Rent : QonQtr : YronYr / Lo- Makati-H / L-Bonfacio-H / L-Rockw- H / Makati Yield 3br? : 1Q/ 2018 : 0,805 x12 = 9,660 / 180.400: 5.35% Yield (prev. 5.50%) Note: Compare with the Yield on a Office: Premier : ??? (9.14%) : Grade-A : ??? (10.03%) > Office yield : thread : Makati Residential Stock and Growth Rates - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - : Historical Prices - PHP per Sq. M. - - - - : : : : Colliers-Insight ... PB : Historical Record - : Most Data is per Colliers Int'l PROPERTY : 3BR - Capital Values : ( per Sq. Meter ) Colliers Qtr /Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : YronYr / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low Rockwell- H / 4Q /2007 : 095,000 : +1.0E% : +15.2% : 85,000 - 105,000 : 1Q /2008 : 096,575 : +1.66% : +12.3% : 85,000 - 108,150 : 2Q /2008 : 101,650 : +5.25% : +15.5% : 90,950 - 112,350 > went up too fast ? needed to correct ? 3Q /2008 : 101,958 : +0.30% : +12.1% : 91,205 - 112,665 : 4Q /2008 : 101,750 : -0.20% : + 7.11% : 1Q /2009 : 101,000 : -0.74% : + 4.58% : 90,000 - 112,000 : 2Q /2009 : 101,002 : +0.00% : - 0.64% : 90,000 - 112,000 : 3Q /2009 : P99,706 : -1.28% : - 2.21% : 4Q /2009 : P99,191 : -0.52% : - 2.51% : 1Q /2010 : P99,192 : +0.00% : - 1.79% : 2Q /2010 : 100,100 : +0.92% : - 0.89% : 3Q /2010 : 101,627 : +1.52% : + 1.93% :: 70,827 - 132,426 : 085,346 - 120,231 : 092,000 - 119,768 : 4Q /2010 : 102,289 : +0.65% : + 3.12% :: 70,827 - 133,750 : 085,943 - 121,000 : 092,000 - 121,000 : 1Q /2011 : 103,244 : +0.93% : + 4.09% :: 71,535 - 134,954 : 086,287 - 121,557 : 092,000 - 122,500 : 2Q /2011 : 106,067 : +2.73% : + 5.96% :: 71,621 - 140,512 : 087,889 - 123,866 : 092,956 - 125,337 : 3Q /2011 : 107,169 : +1.04% : + 5.45% :: 73,638 - 140,699 : 088,514 - 125,724 : 092,920 - 131,074 : 4Q /2011 : 109,202 : +1.91% : + 6.77% :: 74,230 - 144,200 : 089,212 - 127,533 : 094,069 - 133,041 : 1Q /2012 : 114,061 : +4.44% : +10.48% : 78,000 - 150,121 : 090.688 - 135,125 : 098,421 - 140,551 : 2Q /2012 : 115,429 : +1.20% : + 8.83% :: 78,936 - 151,922 : 090,658 - 136,746 : 098,913 - 141,816 : 3Q /2012 : 116,025 : +0.52% : + 8.26% :: 78,950 - 153,100 : 091,290 - 141,390 : 099,900 - 147,490 : 4Q /2012 : 117,950 : +1.66% : + 8.01% :: 80,050 - 155,850 : 091,750 - 145,630 : 101,000 - 150,440 : 1Q /2013 : 123,760 : +4.93% : + 8.50% :: 81,650 - 165,870 : 093,585 - 149,415 : 103,020 - 153,300 : 2Q /2013 : 128,730 : +4.02% : +11.52% : 87,365 - 170,095 : 098,265 - 156,885 : 106,110 - 159,430 : 3Q /2013 : 132,048 : +2.58% : +13.81% : 88,895 - 175,200 : 100,720 - 159,240 : 107,175 - 162,300 : 4Q /2013 : 134,908 : +2.17% : +14.38% : 90,675 - 179,140 : 102,230 - 161,290 : 109,315 - 168,220 : 1Q /2014 : 136,533 : +1.20% : +10.32% : 91,715 - 181,350 : 103,200 - 163,150 : 110,240 - 175,685 : 2Q /2014 : 138,083 : +1.13% : + 7.27% :: 93,000 - 183,165 : 104,400 - 165,465 : 111,345 - 172,070 : 3Q /2014 : 142,750 : +3.38% : + 8.10% :: 98,000 - 187,500 : 108,000 - 170,000 : 115,000 - 178,500 : 4Q /2014 : 144,500 : +1.23% : + 7.11% : 100,000- 189,000 : 110,000 - 180,000 : 117,000 - 180,000 : 1Q /2015 : 147,350 : +1.97% : + 7.92% : 102,500- 192,200 : 113,000 - 179,500 : 119,000 - 189,000 : 2Q /2015 : 149,000 : +1.11% : + 7.91% : 104,000- 194,000 : 114,000 - 182,000 : 119,000 - 198,000 : 3Q /2015 : 151,000 : +1.34% : + 5.78% : 106,000- 196,000 : 114,000 - 185,000 : 121,000 - 201,000 : 4Q /2015 : 151,300 : +0.20% : + 4.71 % : 106,400- 196,200 : 114,700 - 185,400 : 121,700 - 202,100: 1Q /2016 : 152,000 : +0.46% : + 3.16 % : 107,000- 197,000 : 115,000 - 185,000 : 121,700 - 202,100: 2Q /2016 : 147,575 : - 2.91% : - 0.96 % : 103,770- 191,380 : 111,760 - 180.760 : 120,390 - 200,040: 3Q /2016 : 146,485 : - 0.74% : - 2.99 % : 103,010- 189,960 : 109.790 - 177,580 : 119,090 - 197,870: 4Q /2016 : 150,600e +2.81% : - 0.00 % : 109,000- 192.2K* : 110,500 - 226,400 : 188,400 - 207,700: *274.6k x70% adj. 1Q /2017 : 154,600e +2.65% : +1.71 % : P97,400- 192.2K* : 110,500 - 235,500 : 186,500 - 218,600: *274.5k x77% adj. >post#301 2Q /2017 : 161,500e +4.46% : +9.44 % : 108,900- 214.1K* : 110,500 - 236,200 : 188,800 - 226,500: *274.5k x78% adj. >post#323 3Q /2017 : 167,000e +3.41% : + 14.0 % : 111,600- 222.3k* : 111,600 - 238,600 : 197,200 - 236,600 : *277.9k x80% adj. >post#351 4Q /2017 : 174,700e +4.61% : + 16.0 % : 111,700- 237.7k* : 112,000 - 239,400 : 198,000 - 244,300 : *286.4kx83% adj. 1Q /2018 : 180,400e +3.26% : + 16.7 % : 111,700- 249.1k* : 114,000 - 244,400 : 200,400 - 247,300 : *286.4k x87% adj.1Q /2018 : 180,400e +3.26% : + 16.7 % : 111,700- 249.1k* : 114,000 - 244,400 : 200,400 - 247,300 : *286.4k x87% adj.1Q /2018 : 180,400e +3.26% : + 16.7 % : 111,700- 249.1k* : 114,000 - 244,400 : 200,400 - 247,300 : *286.4k x87% adj.Qtr / Yr. : Mak-Mid. QonQtr : Yr.onYr. / Low - Makati - H / Low -Bonfacio- H / Low -Rockwell- H / / : Adj. from Q4-2016 : Q1 : PB : ==================== Prior Quarter's Charts :: q4-15 / q1, q2, q3, Rept: q3, q4-16 / q1, q2, q3, q4-17 / LINK to this thread----- :: http://tinyurl.com/PHP-Makati : Makati : BGC/Taguig : QC : completed : insight : RENTING in Makati---- :: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=20162 GDP / Inflation databank, 2nd.post-nov2017: Page-15 (More LINKS, post#2) =====

I don't think so. There are some signs of inflation stirring again... Here's Gold- vs: CRB and DBA ... update =

Henderson Land / HK12 : http://tinyurl.com/All-HK12 =========== "I had a look the NAVs of a non-random selection of HK listed property companies. Of the large ones, Henderson stood out. NAV as per last interim report was HK$88.13 per share. Current share price is $42.45 - 52% below NAV. While there is a good chance that NAV will show as being lower when the annual results are released, that is a huge discount (even allowing for the land banking element). Some of the smaller companies have even larger discounts. " Disclosure: I hold Henderson. - TraineeInvestor Yeah. I get that contrarian concept. And if the widely "expected" 20-30% dip in property prices never comes, your timing could great. Personally, I would rather wait for a test of likely chart support at near $37.50, and see how the news flow looks. L.T. Chart : http://tinyurl.com/All-HK12 If that support goes, then the deeper correction that has been widely predicted, may in fact happen.

DOLLAR and BOND to SLIDE together ? ( Jim Willie on the Schiess Dollar) VICIOUS CYCLE & DOWNWARD SPIRAL The USFed response will be to print money to cover the sales of USTBonds, but done with a discount which has already begun in force. The debasement of the USD from rampant money supply growth will exacerbate the situation. Foreign USTBond holders will rush to sell more, thus fueling the downward spiral. The USFed will print even more money to compensate in the bond monetization, probably done in hidden fashion to hide the monstrous QE volume increase. Then comes the full blown currency crisis, which in my view will result in a currency split. The USGovt with its USFed masters will decide to split the currency. They will tell the foreigners that the external USDollars retain value, but a new Scheiss Dollar (aka Shit Dollar) will be distributed in order to pay for imports from foreign suppliers. It will be devaluated, in order to encourage its acceptance and to assure incoming supply. The foreign USTBond selling will slow down, and even halt, only when the USFed promises to redeem with original USTBonds in cash. The foreigners will use the cash to buy other major currencies and Gold Bullion, and certainly not swap into the new Republic Shit Dollar. The Chinese will take control of the Federal Reserve, and assume responsibility for management of foreign held USDollars, with some assistance by the Intl Monetary Fund. The IMF already has a Chinese dominance. The USDept Treasury late last year took back control of certain USDollar responsibility. Doing so set the stage for launch of the Scheiss Dollar, while the Chinese had been busy with acquisition of the JPMorgan headquarters in South Manhattan. The split oversight has already taken root. As the perception spreads like a virus that the new Scheiss Dollar will see deep devaluation on a repetitive basis, the torrent will be directed toward conversion of major nation sovereign bonds into Gold bullion. From 2009 to 2012 the PIGS took the headlines. Next the US, UK, and Japan will make headlines for trouble in sovereign bonds. As the perception spreads like a virus that the major currencies all suffer from the central bank debasement problem, the conversion of Euros, British Pounds, and Japanese Yen will all be directed toward Gold Bullion. Their sovereign bonds will undergo separate simultaneous crises, all perceived as toxic paper. The recognition of Gold Trade Settlement will be common, its practice born in a simultaneous stroke. The momentum into Gold Bullion will be staggering, secret, and robust, led by the BRICS Bank (aka Gold Trade Central Bank). . . . INDIRECT EXCHANGE DUMPING OF USTBONDS The indirect exchange concept will continue to accelerate. A quick review around the world can identify a wide range of locations for the discharge. The USTreasury Bonds are being used as currency by third parties (mostly China & Russia) to pay for large assets sales and energy purchases. The USGovt bonds are being dumped. A race will develop to convert the USTBonds before a final restructure writedown. In past Hat Trick Letter reports, some major Indirect Exchange routes had been identified. The biggest two were the Rosneft buyout of the British Petroleum stake in the TBK-BP huge Russian energy firm for $55 billion. The deal will see the Russians unloading those $billions in USTBonds, sent to London banks where they cannot be refused. The other large deal is to be the payment by China for Russian crude oil delivered via the vast network of Asian pipelines. The Chinese will pay the huge annual energy bill in USTBonds, a steady discharge. The Indirect Exchange usage of USTBonds will contribute to the external pressure on the USDollar, from which the USGovt will be forced to ramp up the QE volume in bond monetization, and then split the USDollar for a domestic currency that is heavily devalued. The radical action will take place as the USD is dropped from global reserve status. Several creditor nations will follow suit in the Indirect Exchange movement, including Brazil, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, Luxembourg, Norway, and Ireland. The exchange of bonds will grow and become a global stampede, then a race to extract value before the USTreasury Bonds default and convert to 65 cents on the dollar during a Global Restructure Conference, with the USMilitary having a seat to ensure cooperation and compliance (with a smile). The Jackass forecast of a USGovt debt default made in late 2008 is slowly taking shape. == >http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-split-birth-of-new-scheiss-dollar.aspx?article=5187155494H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Jim+Willie+CB&mk=1

A Trader looks at Hyper-inflation Victor Sperandeo: The Coming Hyperinflation = = Aug 24, 2013 Legendary Wall Street trader Victor Sperandeo presents a compelling, data-driven case that the current US and international monetary policies are creating the conditions for a hyperinflation on a scale never seen in the United States. The talk discusses what hyperinflation is, how it occurs, where it took place in the past within other nations, and why it has to occur ( a "statistical inevitability") in the US unless the government changes its ideology drastically. Accompanied by data slides.

Classic Book on Weimar Germany / Audio interview with Eric Weitz, the author MP3 : http://press.princeton.edu/podcasts/weitz.mp3 Weimar Germany: Promise and Tragedy (New and expanded edition) Eric D. Weitz A New York Times Book Review Editor's Choice One of Financial Times's Best Books for 2007 - A History Book Club Selection Thoroughly up-to-date, skillfully written, and strikingly illustrated, Weimar Germany brings to life as never before an era of creativity unmatched in the twentieth century-one whose influence and inspiration we still feel today. In a new chapter, Weitz depicts Weimar's global impact in the decades after the destruction of the republic, when so many of its key cultural and political figures fled Nazi Germany. The Weimar style they carried with them has powerfully influenced art, urban design, and intellectual life from Tokyo to Ankara, Brasilia to New York. They made Weimar an example of all that is liberating, and all that can go wrong, in a democracy. Eric D. Weitz is Dean of Humanities and Arts and Professor of History at City College, City University of New York. He is the author of A Century of Genocide and Creating German Communism, 1890-1990 (both Princeton). Review: "In his engaging readings of these works, Weitz forgoes abstruse analysis. Instead, he presents them as fresh attempts to make sense of a world in which reliable beliefs about authority and order, class and gender, wealth and poverty, no longer held. His most innovative chapter is an imaginary walk through Berlin, observing the daily lives of the city's different classes. . . . Better than most histories, the book connects culture, politics and city life."--Brian Ladd, New York Times Book Review = > http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9993.html

What do those living in Britain think of this ? (if you are not afraid to answer) Why should very wealthy property owners also get money FROM the public purse? Should they not put their affairs in order, run a budget, and pay taxes? =

That's for the comment. There's a thread on the Trading section about Creative Real Estate investing. I will post the chart and your comment there - so it will be easier to find.

HOW MANY NEW HOMES was that ? I called B-b-bullfeathers on the Notion that there is a Squeeze on Used Home Owners. It is not on them, it is on the Estate Agents... who are now trying to talk the market down > http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/153181/hong-kong-property-market-2014-forecasts/ The article in The Standard says: "Around 18,000 new flats - 45 percent than in 2013 - will be available for sale with aggressive discounts offered by developers." - Karen Chiu, in The Standard Property column today NOPE. Not necessarily. They nearly always MISS TO THE DOWNSIDE on these projections. I find it easy to believe that the actual figure will come in under 15,000 or even under 14,000. And we started 2014, with one of the LOWEST numbers of new flats available for sale in years. New Home Expected for Sale in 2014: Developer------ : Proj.s : #Flats : Major Projects-------------------- Cheung Kong-- : # 5 ... : 5,235 : Mont Vert (1,350), City Point (1,717) LOHAS P-3 (1,648) SHK Properties : 7 - 10 : 4,277 : Riva (668), Yoho T-3 (2,508), Mont One (144) Henderson Ld.. : # 8 ... : 2,766 : Double C-3 (1,092) Sino Land------- : # 5 ... : 2,180 : Pak Shek Lots (1,091), Kau To Area (973) New World ------ : # 3 ... : 2,239 : The Austin (691), Double C-3, Pavilia Hill (358) Kerry Properties : # 4 ... : 1,238 : Kau To Area, Ede Road proj. (43) Wheelock & Co. : # 3 ... : 1,357 : The Austin, Tseun Kwan O Site (591) China Overseas : # 4 ... : 0,470 : The Nova (255), Pak Tai St (168), The Green (40) Swire Properties : 3 - 4 . : 0,444 : Mount Parker Resid. (92) Chinachem Grp. : # 5 ... : 0,431 : Golden Gate (127), Jade Cove (86) BillionaireLuxe (37) ============= : =========== 10 Developers-- : 47-51: 20,637 - there may be some double counting ==================== Previously Launched : http://eng.28hse.com/utf8/developerfront.html

THE BATTLE IS ON - to Talk the HK Property market down ================ Estate Agents had a tough year in 2013. Many were only "saved" by the surge in new property sales at the end of the year, as developers offered big discounts on new properties in order to try to hit their 2013 revenue targets. Some actual "bargains" were had in the first batch of each new launch. Then the developers quietly raised their prices, by cutting discounts. And in some cases they got prices back up over the 2nd-hand market levels. January was a slow month (perhaps because we had a very early Chinese New Year), and buyers wanted to wait for the CNY before stepping forward. Now the agents have decided to launch a campaign to talk the market lower. "SQUEEZE on used-home owners as big firms battle" - The Standard's article heralded today B-b-bullfeathers ! There's no squeeze on used home owners - they can stay in their flats and relax - the squeeze is on the AGENTS, let's be honest about that. "Sellers have to slash prices by at least 10 percent, unless their flats are of exceptional good quality as homebuying is likely to be further dragged to the primary market this year..." said Midland Realty's CEO. Let's look at his co's stock price... Midland Hldgs. / Chart ... update : http://tinyurl.com/Midland-1200 : Last 12 mos Do you think he might be feeling some pressure? Now let me remove the spin in his words, and translate what he said into plain English: "Sellers, we are having a hard time getting Buyers to pay prices within 5% of your asking prices. Many potential buyers are thinking they may get bargains in the primary market. Please make our job easier, and consider cutting your price by 10% or more, so we can tell the buyer he is getting a bargain. Else we will focus on the primary market too, where our percent commissions are higher, and it is easier to get buyers to jump, since they are dfazzled by the headline discounts." That's the Truth, as I see it. Now consider the dilemma of the Sellers. Unless they are leaving HK, or planning to rent, they will still need a place to live. If they cut their prices by 10% and make a sale, then they have to buy somewhere else. If they are lucky, they may get a genuine bargain in the first batch of a new launch. But they may have to join a lottery and get a low enough number. If they buy in the secondary market, then they will have to pay the large Double Stamp Duty. Or sell, and rent. How attractive is that? Why not just stay put, and do a few home improvements? The agents may succeed in talking the market lower. Goodness knows, they are all trying the exact same Bearish tactic now, and the Press seems to be willing to help. The Standard : http://thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=16&art_id=142189&sid=41498680&con_type=1&d_str=20140206&fc=7 But maybe we will find that the owners will sit tight, as they did in 2013. Unless the developers cut more than they did last year, or 2nd-hand owners cave in, the market may stay reasonably stable, but with little liquidity. And we cannot completely rule some firmness. Watch those areas, like Kowloon Station, where there is an infrastructure improvement (the XRL), and the supply of new properties has mostly been cleaned out in the wave of selling in Q4-2013. If there is a surprise towards the upside, that is where we may see it first. I still give this outcome some small chance of happening. But I expect most people will back the Agents in their battle to break the confidence and steadfastness of the so-called "used home sellers." So maybe we will finally get the softer market that so many have been predicting for over a year. The odds of a drop in 2014, are now much higher than they were in 2013 imho.

Time to LOOK CLOSER at this? = BDEV.L versus GLD - from beg. 2013 ... update Key Points - The Highest Ratio? Date==== : -BDEV- : --GLD-- : Ratio-1 : --FXB-- : Bdev-$ : Ratio-2 : 12/19/13 : 337.4 P : $ 114.82 : 2.939- : $161.38 : 544.50 : 4.742 : 12/31/13 : 349.0 P : $ 116.12 : 3.005- : $163.30 : 569.92 : 4.908 : 01/21/14 : 389.9 P : $ 119.70 : 3.257- : $162.31 : 632.85 : 5.287 :

RATIONAL Taxation is on: LAND & INFRASTRUCTURE HK's got it (rational land tax). The USA lacks it. The difference explains an important part of the difference in wealth creation between the US and HK. Go and look up "Henry George" on wikipedia. Or listen to this very good and clear podcast: Show 164: Rick Rybeck on Value Capture strong towns podcast: http://www.strongtowns.org/storage/podcasts/2014/012913_RickRybeck.mp3 Attorney and job creation, transportation efficiency and economic development expert Rick Rybeck joins Chuck Marohn to talk about taxes, fees and creating incentives for a better land use approach. You can find out more about Rick and his work at www.justeconomicsllc.com. "value capture" means that people who own land, pay for the improvements in infrastructure around it HK does this well (and has great infrastructure, and an efficient economy). The US does it poorly, and thanks to this and other wealth drains (military, finance, medical/pharmaceutical) is headed towards third world status. Don not think they do not deserve it, for the stupidity in not changing their cash drains.

LONG OVERDUE, this was IMHO. Other countries with rapid House Price inflation, imposed these long ago. I moved from the UK years ago, and have been wondering when we would see these types of measures Stop rich overseas investors from buying up UK homes, report urges Rightwing thinktank proposes curbs on non-EU residents to open up more of housing market to Britons Toby Helm, political editor The Observer, Saturday 1 February 2014 21.27 GMT Radical plans to stop rich overseas residents who live outside the EU buying British houses – as well as tight restrictions on them acquiring "newbuild" properties as investments – will be published in a report by a leading rightwing thinktank on Monday. Free-market organisation Civitas castigates government ministers for allowing wealthy foreign investors to stoke a property boom that it says is driving up prices and locking millions of UK citizens out of the housing market. The plans would prevent the likes of Roman Abramovich, owner of Chelsea football club, or other Russian oligarchs from adding to their multimillion-pound UK portfolios. They also aim to stem a flood of investment from countries such as China, Malaysia and Singapore. Concerned that many middle and lower earners are being forced to pay high rents in London because they can't afford to buy, Civitas calls on ministers to adopt a scheme similar to one operating in Australia, which ensures that no sale can take place to overseas buyers unless they can show that their investment will add to existing housing stock. Such a system would mean that no existing home could be sold to a buyer from outside the EU, and that such buyers could acquire newbuild homes only if their investment led to one or more additional properties being built. > http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/01/rich-overseas-investors-uk-eu-housing-market

There seems to be a new "DrBubb was right" type thread on HPC: #195842 http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=195842 Of course, the 2008 forecasts did not prove very accurate for London itself, so probably few benefitted from selling at the peak and waiting years (in "the Big Smoke", I mean)

LONG OVERDUE, this was IMHO Stop rich overseas investors from buying up UK homes, report urges Rightwing thinktank proposes curbs on non-EU residents to open up more of housing market to Britons Toby Helm, political editor The Observer, Saturday 1 February 2014 21.27 GMT Rich pickings: the entrance to Kensington Palace Gardens in London. Photograph: Alastair Grant/AP Radical plans to stop rich overseas residents who live outside the EU buying British houses – as well as tight restrictions on them acquiring "newbuild" properties as investments – will be published in a report by a leading rightwing thinktank on Monday. Free-market organisation Civitas castigates government ministers for allowing wealthy foreign investors to stoke a property boom that it says is driving up prices and locking millions of UK citizens out of the housing market. The plans would prevent the likes of Roman Abramovich, owner of Chelsea football club, or other Russian oligarchs from adding to their multimillion-pound UK portfolios. They also aim to stem a flood of investment from countries such as China, Malaysia and Singapore. Concerned that many middle and lower earners are being forced to pay high rents in London because they can't afford to buy, Civitas calls on ministers to adopt a scheme similar to one operating in Australia, which ensures that no sale can take place to overseas buyers unless they can show that their investment will add to existing housing stock. Such a system would mean that no existing home could be sold to a buyer from outside the EU, and that such buyers could acquire newbuild homes only if their investment led to one or more additional properties being built. == > http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/01/rich-overseas-investors-uk-eu-housing-market

very interesting podcast - many subjects Mike Harris interviews Dr RAM and Kerry Cassidy - All three together MP-3 : http://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/mike_harris/hr1012914.mp3

gold appetite is showing here too... =

Crisis in Argentina sparks new gold rush Why now’s the time to be bullish on gold-mining stocks Several weeks ago I bought the one asset that all investors seem to hate. I bought some stock in gold mining companies. No, I haven’t gone gold bug or paranoid. I’m not dressing up in camo or wearing tin foil on my head to stop radio waves from NSA satellites. The actual cause was simple. Gold mining stocks had fallen so far out of favor that they had triggered the Bennett Rule—a rule named for my old friend, and money manager extraordinaire, Peter Bennett in London. \ Bennett, a private-client money manager with an excellent track record going back 40 years, has an old rule of thumb: Take a modest wager on any durable asset (i.e. not Pets.com) when it has fallen more than about 60% from its peak. Most of the time, he has found, over the subsequent five years you will do very well indeed. It doesn’t always work, but it does most of the time. Today your average money manager would rather suck a lemon than own shares in a gold mining company. In April 2011, the Philadelphia index of Gold & Silver miners XAU +1.79% hit a peak of 229. Near the end of last year it touched 80—a fall of 65%. (It has since rebounded to 91.) Gold itself has tumbled a long way, from a peak of around $1,900 an ounce in September 2011 to $1,263 now. But the stocks have fallen much further than gold itself. The Philly index is now at its lowest level, when compared with the actual price of gold, since FactSet began tracking the data in the mid-1980s. I’m betting that gold mining stocks are the cheap way to play gold. The market value of Newmont Mining Corp. NEM +0.37% , the industry bellwether, briefly fell below the value of its net assets. Gold mining stocks are an “orphan asset” these days. They are generally unwanted and unloved by investors. Gold bugs don’t want them. They think they are paper assets, and therefore rubbish. Meanwhile, mainstream stock investors don’t want them either. They think they’re gold—and therefore rubbish. As a result there is a very good chance they are trading lower than they should be