drbubb

For those who do not read my Diary - here's a neat summary which shows the impact of Bernanke's statements last Wednesday:

Chinese buyers flee Hong Kong for overseas property markets Visitors chat with sales representatives in front of a model of a London upmarket property developmment for sale in Hong Kong (BOBBY YIP, REUTERS / June 24, 2013) Yimou Lee and Twinnie Siu Reuters 1:57 a.m. CDT, June 25, 2013 HONG KONG (Reuters) - On the seventh floor of a luxury hotel in the heart of Hong Kong, a Chinese couple listens carefully as an agent takes them on a virtual tour of an upmarket property development for sale - not in the former British colony, but in London. Cash-rich mainland Chinese, who some in Hong Kong blame for pushing property prices to record highs, have fled the city's real estate market, scared off by cooling measures that have sent them scouring overseas for better options. For many, the search starts in the ballrooms of Hong Kong's luxury hotels which host overseas property fairs nearly every weekend, offering prospective buyers a glimpse of homes abroad while providing refreshments such as sparkling water and the bite-sized Cantonese snack dim sum. "We can only see pictures of the project now so that's why we have to go to London to take a look at the environment of the building," said Christina Chen, who flew with her husband from Shanghai to Hong Kong to check out plans of a development at London's Olympic Park before flying there herself to see it. . . . Hong Kong, where property prices are among the most expensive in the world, has imposed a series of tightening steps since October, including a 15 percent tax on foreigners that many industry watchers believe was targeted at mainland buyers. "Mainland Chinese have lost the ticket to buy properties in Hong Kong, now that tightening measures are in force," said David Hui, overseas sales director at Centaline. "If they want to invest in property, they now need to go overseas." HONG KONG OVERSEAS PROPERTY SALES JUMP The flight abroad has taken them increasingly to Britain and the United States, where Chinese rank alongside Canadians as the fastest-growing group of buyers, data from the U.S. National Association of Realtors shows. In London, overseas buyers accounted for 2.2 billion pounds ($3.4 billion) worth of new-build property in 2012, up from 1.8 billion pounds in 2011, according to estate agent Knight Frank. Buyers from greater China are among the top three. The search for homes has accelerated, with Hong Kong's overseas property transactions jumping nearly 50 percent in May from a year earlier - of which mainland Chinese made up a fifth of sales, according to two property agents in the city. More than 40 offshore projects are on offer in Hong Kong this month, most with price tags below HK$7 million ($900,000), with lawyers and bank representatives on hand for quick sales. === /more: http://www.chicagotr...0,5578624.story

KNIGHT-FRANK's latest report shows an interesting chart /PDF: http://my.knightfran...ales-index.aspx It shows Flat prices in Prime Central London shooting up much faster than House prices. Might that be reflecting the impact of buyers from places like HK and Singapore? EXCERPT: The desire among buyers for lateral living has contributed to higher than average price growth for flats over the past few years and this trend has continued in 2013 (figure 2). The price of a luxury flat in prime central London is 3.5% higher than at the turn of the year. Price growth for houses, while still positive, has been more muted over the same period, rising by 2.6%. International demand remains a key factor driving price growth and it is a trend we explored in more detail in the recent London Residential Review. We are seeing a widening of demand for prime London property towards new nationalities. For example searches from Turkey on Knight Frank’s global website for property in London rose by 23% in the first four months of 2013 compared to 2012. Turkish buyers’ overall market share has risen from 0.6% of all PCL market to 1% over the same period. Over the past 12 months Knight Frank has sold prime London property to 71 nationalities.

Thanks for your post, EdgeTraderPlus. I liked reading your Blog post, and viewing the charts. So it was good to see you posting here on GEI. Tom Obrien's Timing the Trade system, which is based on Wycoff's system, and Tim Ord's holds that Both High Volume highs and lows are normally beaten or at least tested. So when I see a high volume low like in 15-April (GLD-$130.41 at 93.4 million in GLD) then I will normally await a retest on lower volume. So I think that Thursday's low of $123.33 on 28.9 million could qualify - though that is still high volume - and so may need a retest of its own. BTW, I have discovered that you can get important LOWS on high volume, but those would normally look like V's on an intraday chart, with the closing price above the mid-point of the day's range. And for a climatic V bottom, the highest volume part of the day, may be after the low, on the way back up. Here's what Thursday's trading looked like ... update I prefer to look at Intraday charts like the one above. I would expect there to be a load of stops lined up below the previous low ($130.41), and obviously the Stops got hit on the opening, and the high trade of the day was GLD-$126.38. From there, it traded down by $3.05 to a low of $123.33, and closed at $123.60, which is 91% way down the trading range, and 95% way down on the total "Reach" from Wed's $130.59 close. I agree that this is a weak close, and there was no sign of a V bottom. Friday's trading brought a gap up, and a Close at $125.05. on 16.6 million shares. Not enough to reverse the prior day's downwards trades. So probably we will see a retest of the low - and maybe as early as today (Monday.) If we do see that, I would like to see the low retested on much lighter volume, followed by heavier volume to the upside. I cannot promise that - the market will have to show us where it wants to go. But my main point about selling drying up relates to the bigger picture. The volume of Thursday's big drop was on 31% of the volume on the drop of 15-April. So even though important stops were hit, when the price opened below the prior trading range, it triggered a lesser amount of selling, than on the day of the mid-April low, when GLD dropped by $12.64 on 93.4 million shares. Another part of the Big piture was explained in a posting yesterday on my DrBubb's diary... Basically, the supply of potential sellers has dried up. The likely last gasp of selling was triggered by Bernanke's statement regarding a coming tapering move. There are now many SHORT TERM SHORT POSITIONS in the market, and when these stop growing (and that may happen this week), it is going to trigger a massive short-covering rally, and a price rally will trigger new buying My Evidence: + The main sellers have been: In the Paper market, and from GLD shedding ounces, when you look in detail at what's going on, they are unlikely to sell much more (see below) + The physical buying has been heavy in China, and that is very likely to continue, and even accelerate after the latest price drop. + The market is going to get hit by more physical buying and short covering at the same time, and there will be few sellers - so the price will have to shoot up. It should be fast and furious GOLD SELLERS are running out of ammunition: === 1/ GLD's SPDR trust are likely to stop slimming : When the gold price falls, the SPDR Trust will often be forced to buy in its own shares. This happens when buying and selling are not balanced, and there are more net sellers. The Trust's job is to keep the GLD price in line with the value of the Gold it holds, so it will buy-in shares and cancel them. Buying in shares slims down the size of GLD's metal holdings, releasing Gold into the physical market. As seen in post #152 above, the value of the SPDR Trust's gold holdings has fallen from $79.4 billion to $45.1 billion (by -43.2%.) That's from both a fall in Gold price, and a fall in Gold holdings. The Trust's gold holdings fell from 1,353.4 tonnes (47.7 million oz) at 2012 year end, to a recent level of 999.6 tonnes (35.3 million oz) - that's a 26.1% drop. The slide in GLD's holdings have fallen by an average of 2.25 million oz. per month this year. And at this rate, it would hit zero in less than 16 months. That is obviously not going to happen. What is more likely is that the Trust's holdings will stabilise, and it would become a net buyer of gold, if and when investor demand for precious metals returns. A Gold price rise normally triggers GLD buying and the size of the Trust holdings will rise. I expect we would see the GLD trust growing again in a big short covering rally. 2/ Gold Producer selling is likely to be halted, or even reversed : Those producers who sold forward their production at a higher price may feel fortunate now, since they will have locked in a better price than they can achieve today. But few producers are likely to want to sell forward now, because they would be locking in price which will provide very little margin. I doubt that many new gold mines will be financed in the present environment, and so I cannot see new hedges for new mines being put on at current levels. For those gold producers who can afford it, they will likely be reducing the size of their hedges - locking in profits on those hedges. So we may be seeing net buying from gold producers. 3/ Speculative Hedge Funds will switch from selling to Buying, as they cover shorts, when price rise enough 4/ Central bank "Gold stabilisation selling" is un-necessary at the Current price 5/ Bullion banks (Commercials) have already turned from selling to buying.

I don't agree that: "Not one Precious Metals guru has gotten anything right" I have reported the view of Bruno, the Hedge Fund guy, several times. He has been calling for $1200. And Charles Nenner spoke of "a cycle low at $1280-85 in Mid-June." Both of these forecasts, were repeated several times on DrBubb's diary - though I was not so Bearish as that. I myself identified a key support level (480d-MA) at higher level, which broken, could lead to a big selloff. So maybe Nadler has been too selective in picking his "Gold gurus".

INSIDERS Buying: between 17 to 21 June . HK-410 / Soho China : +HK$108 mn . HK-54 / Hopewell : +HK$56 mn . HK-12 / Henderson : +HK$9.1 mn = 195k shs at $46.56 : Lee, S.K. . HK-16 / SHK Properties : +HK$200 mn = 2.03mn at $98.30 : Kwok, Thomas (owns 16.1%) . HK-20 / Wheelock : +HK$3.0 mn = 74k shs at $40.40 : Woo, Peter (owns 60.2%)

STRESS Rising... with House Prices ... ... ... London housing crisis: high costs, high stress New figures underline the depth and extent of Londoners' concerns about spiraling accomodation costs A new poll for the Chartered Institute of Housing points to Londoners' deep anxiety about their housing costs and how much more widespread it is compared with the rest of the country. Figures gathered by Ipsos MORI earlier this month showed that 36% of respondents are already concerned about their ability to pay their rent or mortgage, 45% are worried that they won't be able to meet their payments in a year's time, and that 53% are caused a great deal or a fair amount of stress by the expense of their accommodation. The findings are from the Greater London component of a national survey, and a comparison with the rest of the country underlines how keenly this aspect of the housing crisis in the capital is felt: the British average for concern about ability to meet costs now was 23%, while worry about a year into the future was 33% and the stat for stress was 36% - significantly high figures in each case, but also significantly lower than those specifically for London.

Whistleblower Radio on 6/21, from the UK: BROOKS AGNEWS, interviewed by Kerry Cassidy: he talks about the expedition to (near the Inner Earth opening?) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqPCtDwAnPU This interview of KC was only mildly interesting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl9DdFqnH0s

Barratt had a big run up - far ahead of the FTSE, since mid-March. . No doubt, that was mainly due to the (irresponsible) deposit assistance scheme. . BDEV / Barratt Developments ... update . . The stock is now giving up some of that outsized gain, and the bullish follow-thru in the actual property markety may disappoint some over-eager property bulls.

Gold may surprise to upside. Where are the Sellers going to come from? He is wrong - the lesser volume is a bullish thing - SELLING is drying up. Bernanke's statements were a Red Flag, and that was all the bears could manage.

As long as the Transport is good, and you have friends (or think you will make new friends) in the area: Then Why Not? The arbitrage makes sense to me, and new transport (Crossraill) is coming to some areas

IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVELS: HK-01 : Cheung Kong: $95 - to be tested soon? ... update HK-16 : Sun Hung Kai Prop's: Channel broken. Next test $85 ... update HK-10 : Hang Lung Group: Support at $36 may be threatened ... update HK-12 : Henderson Land: If Channel breaks, next big support: $34 ... update

From AX / Posted by OffThePeak : 1 / OTP: == HK;HSI / Hang Seng Index ... Approaching key support near 20,000 Chart: http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/8321/7uv.png It isn't just Bernanke who is spooking the markets. As the WSJ put it: "The past week's spike in Chinese interbank rates... show that the Chinese have decided to call time on one of the graetest credit expansions in history." 2 / Lucane: == I am not a trader / hedge fund manager. Can you explain to me what is meant by support level? I am assuming that it is a level where traders assume many stop-losses / puts / calls are set, is that the case? Is there any factual data out that suggests where the support levels are, or is it just guessing / psychology? 3 / OTP: == 20,000 or so, is a level where you would expect the price slide to stop, or reverse. If support at that level does not hold, it may then fall to the next lower support level I identify them based on Trendlines and Moving averages

Bernanke decision 'inappropriately timed', says St Louis Fed Financial Times - ‎10 minutes ago‎ The Fed decision announced by Mr Bernanke on Wednesday, which would probably lead to the end of asset purchases in mid-2014, was approved by an unusual split vote of 10-2 in the Federal Open Market Committee, with Mr Bullard saying he wanted to ..

China is absorbing the Gold that the GLD Spdr Trust is dumping...

Joel Skousen on Doug Hagmann's DHS Insider "Rosebud" "Everybody is surveilled... This guy has been wrong about everything."

Some of the same issues came up in this earlier podcast - dated 22 May 2012: Whistle Blower Radio - Kerry Cassidy - with guest - Douglas Hagmann VIDEO http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdGD1P-wqPY

( I am not ready to post this on the Main board. It is too controversial, and there are too many Woo-woo bits for a general audience. But you may be able to get something from it. ) . A fascinating conversation between Kerry Cassidy, Stew Webb, and Mike Harris. (You need to skip the long bit at the beginning with Lorien Fenton, which talks about her Super Soldier conference, but does not contribute much to the big picture.) . MP3 : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJTkoNnMboE . "We are on the verge of a Civil War. The Cabal has taken over in the US, and the White Hats (within the US military who still respect the constitution) are waiting for the right moment to strike back." . Ed Snowden's release is only the first of many important revelations that are coming, they are all saying. == == . I hope you find it interesting.

Combining these : Project Camelot - 2012 interviews & podcasts Started by DrBubb, 16 May 2012 Hot 18 replies 113 views Update from Kerry Cassidy's blog (Project Camelot) Started by callmejoe, 11 Nov 2010

Thailand FAQ Chiang Mai is the hub of Northern Thailand. With a population of over 170,000, it is Thailand's fifth-largest city. Located on a plain at an elevation of 316 m, surrounded by mountains and lush countryside, it is much greener and quieter than the capital, and has a cosmopolitan air and a significant expat population, factors which have led many from Bangkok to settle permanently in this "Rose of the North". Inside Chiang Mai's remaining city walls are more than 30 temples dating back to the founding of the principality, in a combination of Burmese, Sri Lankan and Lanna Thai styles, decorated with beautiful wood carvings, Naga staircases, leonine and angelic guardians, gilded umbrellas and pagodas laced with gold filigree. The most famous is Doi Suthep, which overlooks the city from a mountainside 13 km away. Water Festival Modern-day Chiang Mai has expanded in all directions, but particularly to the east towards the Ping River (Mae Nam Ping), where Thanon Chang Klan, the famous Night Bazaar and the bulk of Chiang Mai's hotels and guesthouses are located. The locals say you've not experienced Chiang Mai until you've seen the view from Doi Suthep, eaten a bowl of kao soi, and purchased an umbrella from Bo Sang. Ratchadamneon Rd, the main walking street from Thapae Gate to the very popular Wat Phra Singh, is fast becoming the place to go in the evening if you want somewhere a little more relaxed /// http://thailandfaq.b...chiang-mai.html An American Vlogger, about CM : Best and Worst of Living in Chiang Mai Thailand Some Info on Thai Visas - - - - - - : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btkhDsb5gJ8 : Amer.#5 Setting up banking in Thailand -- : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cavOm17diwk

Chiang Mai, Thailand Notes (TH#2) : NEWS & More Finding and developing the City's Creativity : img #2 /source: http://www.lonelypla...and/chiang-mai/ Chiang Mai Chiang Mai - sometimes written as "Chiengmai" or "Chiangmai", is the largest and most culturally significant city in northern Thailand. It is the capital of Chiang Mai Province , a former capital of the Kingdom of Lanna (1296 - 1768) and was the tributary Kingdom of Chiang Mai from 1774 until 1939. It is located 700 km (435 mi) north of Bangkok, among the highest mountains in the country. The city is on the Ping river, a major tributary of the Chao Phraya river. While officially the city (thesaban nakhon) of Chiang Mai only covers most parts of the Mueang Chiang Mai district with a population of 160,000, the urban sprawl of the city now extends into several neighboring districts. This Chiang Mai Metropolitan Area has a population of nearly one million people, more than half the total of Chiang Mai Province. The city is subdivided into four wards (khwaeng): Nakhon Ping, Srivijaya, Mengrai, and Kawila. The first three are on the west bank of the Ping River, and Kawila is located on the east bank. Nakhon Ping district comprises the north side of the city. Srivijaya, Mengrai, and Kawila consist of the west, south, and east respectively. === /more: http://property-thailand.co/chiang-mai / SSC- Regional Thailand : http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=604 / ChiangMai CityNews : http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?cate=7

Taikoo Shing Estate : HK Island's "most liquid bellwether" . Chart: . Taikoo Shing, last reported by CL at $12,256 (6/09) . + That's only 0.43% below the double top high of $12,302 (3/17) /$12,309 (2/03) + The year's low of $11,326 (5/05) was only -7.99% off the High + More than 60,000 people live on the estate, about 1% of the SAR's population + Taikoo Shing Estate : Completed 27 years ago in 1986 + Built on former site of Taikoo Dockyard + Swire Properties was kicked off with the closing of the dockyard in 1972 === /more: http://en.wikipedia....ki/Taikoo_Shing

An outlook on the English market Are rising prices indicative of the property bubble bursting in London? The numbers are dizzying. London property prices have now broken previous levels set in 2007 when the market was thought to be at its peak. In the uber-fashionable Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the property website Rightmove says that the average property now costs £2.3 million, up 1.8 percent from just a month before, with an annual increase of 12.4 percent. Next door in Westminster, average prices are £1.6 million, up 10.4 percent from the previous year. Less highly-prized areas like Camden now command an average price of just under a million pounds, with a monthly increase of 4.5 percent. Overall, London property prices have risen by £22,000 over the past year. Asking prices for a two-bedroom property here now average £425,000, and you will be expected to pay much more in leafy neighbourhoods. These inflated figures still seem to attract foreign buyers from cities like Singapore, used to dealing with many zeros per square foot. According to property company de Candole Residential, London at £2,540 per square foot is now the third most expensive city in the world for property, after Monaco and Hong Kong. Can this continue? In order to make an educated punt on this, we have to look at why it's happening in the first place. . . . In its effort to kick-start the housing market elsewhere in the UK, it recently announced a new scheme to help home buyers afford a deposit and make them more attractive to mortgage lenders, but this has been criticised as potentially adding fuel to the overcrowded London market. A rise in interest rates, and a rise in sterling is likely to have a calming effect, but those on the run from political instability and insecurity will continue to come. Recent figures released by the Home Office shows that crime in the UK has fallen, with police-recorded crime down by 38 percent since 2002. This looks great if you are worried about your kids growing up somewhere unsafe. / more /

The site is not primarily for raising money, MM. It is for sharing ideas about things like investing in Gold, and stocks. It is difficult to raise money projects that are unfamiliar to people. I think you will find that people who put their money into start-ups have often lost money. And there's an old saying; "Once bitten, twice shy." My advice is scale your funding needs down to what you can raise from people close to you, who know you, and can see what you are doing.

20% Price Fall ? That's what Stanley Wong Yuen-fai, and "Advisor" to the Long Term Housing Steering Committee* is targetting. "20% is not significant. Flat prices have risen 23 per cent since last year. So we are talking about whether the prices can return to last year's level. Also: "The government should consider banning mortgages for second properties", if prices do not fall in a "reasonable adjustment." Centaline said: They hope that Wong's comments do not represent the HK Government's views. Centaline's Data shows (for the CCLI Index): 2012 Low- : $94.16 (01/08/12) : LOW 2013 High : 123.66 (03/17/13) : +31.3% 2012 Low- : 115.16 (01/06/13) : +22.3% / - 6.87% off High Recent ---- : 120.14 (06/02/13) : + 27.6% / - 2.85% off High === *Wong is also Chairman of the Housing Authority's subsidised housing commmittee,