drbubb

Everything beat Cash on a 10 year Horizon (BP too, if you include dividends, I reckon)

Vince Cable warns Help to Buy poses housing bubble threat Financial Times - ‎44 minutes ago‎ Vince Cable has voiced misgivings over the chancellor's pet project to boost home ownership, warning that the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme could stoke another housing bubble. == == Er, ah... Isn't the point of it to MAINTAIN THE BUBBLE which already exists in London ? ... which is now in danger of bursting

Want to eliminate all those destructive highways? That would be a good start But you need to replace them with something that can also efficiently connect people with jobs. If you use Rail, you will need more density, particularly around the stations

The way is was ... as Detroit destroyed itself with suburban sprawl.... Once upon a time, they built grand homes on Grand Boulevard They they moved further out, providing smaller homes for the working and middle classes But these weren't big enough for ambitious Americans, who wanted even bigger homes (mcMansions), with more land around them, so they needed bigger and wider highways to get the cars all the way from the jobs downtown to those suburban areas. Monstrous ribbons were built: And the hearts of neighborhoods were cut with highways to allow this: Suburbanites got their big homes, miles beyond 8 Mile Road : But city life died, because the only thing people had left were fractured neighborhoods Nowhere to walk to. Few buses. All you can do is get into your car, and drive somewhere else... that's no better either. And Eminem showed us what that left inside 8 Mile, which is the edge of Detroit: And Naturally, the employers left the fractured city too.

Beating JABBA the Not-Hut : Killing the American fascination with Huge suburban Homes http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20061009183143/starwars/images/7/75/JabbaPromo.jpg Instead of smiting the piggies, the New Urbanists are winning converts... Through sense, charm, and the attractive ideas of British architect, Sarah Susanka (of Not-So-Big Homes): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2y7xnpulqNk "Quality does not reside in Bigness." "You do not need a 5,000 - 6,000 sf house... You need a house that feels like home." http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/2016/caq5.jpg

Remembering when... Detroit once saw itself as a Great City, enjoying a Renaissance http://wjbk.images.worldnow.com/images/20549053_BG1.jpg Listening to NPR: Planet Money Podcast (#475: What Happened To Detroit's Big Plans?) MP3 : http://podcastdownload.npr.org/anon.npr-podcasts/podcast/510289/205911657/npr_205911657.mp3 http://www.interaksyon.com/motoring/assets/2013/06/detroit_afp.jpg The inspiration for RenCen? One or both of these: http://www.reuk.co.uk/OtherImages/13-amp-plug.jpg : http://looklex.com/egypt/photos/alexandria_fort_qaitbey01.jpg Were they Mad?

Duany : "LEAN" - It's Time to kill off the Building Codes ! The Founder of CNU wants to kill off expensive and restrictive Building Codes, which make it impossible to design and build small projects (about 42 mins in): "We want to deliver a world where the young can operate" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYkMtZlEN_w "Do you realise... EVERYTHING Now is illegal?" He proposes the establishment of "Pink" Codes - with lighter restrictions This is a wonderful REVOLUTIONARY statement - Much needed. Duany doesn't want to "nudge" Architectural schools (they are dying*), he wants to Bypass them *Dying, because they are too expensive, and loaded with Code-heavy thinking

How to Save Detroit and other troubled American cities === === http://thedeathofamerica.org/images/shanghai-detroit.jpg How to Save Detroit - and other troubled American cities Q: "What is the solution for Detroit, in your opinion?" A: The is obvious, isn't it? Only blindness and bureacracy is holding it back: Writedown the debt by 90-98%, and then, What? + Build a new light rail system along Woodward Avenue, using private funds + Change the zoning laws and building codes to encourage mixed use and densification along the rail station + Make it cheap and easy to design and re-purpose buildings + Build Smaller homes (and offices), closer together, with a better design (cf Sarah Susanka ) + Less parking, and few cars, but more "community spaces", where people can meet + Police the areas near the stations and where it is dense and will be easier to provide effective policing + Encourage start-up companies, and keep the red-tape at a minimum + Keep taxes for business at levels which are competitive with the areas around the USA http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/4590/go9g.jpg Removing the shackles of red tape, building codes, and excessive taxes is very important since it will help to create private sector jobs === AX : http://www.AsiaXpat.com : http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/151831/how-to-save-detroit-etc/

The Crash (in London property) has not been called off -- Just repeatedly kicked down the road

Sure. Such was the jump on Monday and Tuesday

The Squeeze is not over IMHO

it might take many more months to get to a Peak. But the UK seems determined to make the same mistake that Greenspan did: Getting "out of a recession" by manipulating the market into a housing boom

UK mortgage approvals rise to a 17-month high as chancellor meets with lenders to discuss Help to Buy July 23, 2013, 9:36am by Chris Harlow Some 37,278 home loans were approved in June 2013 - a 17-month high - according to a report from the British Banker’s Association. While this came in below analysts' expectations of a rise to 38,500, mortgage approvals were still up 32 per cent from June 2012 and 17 per cent from the 2012 average. It was also up 2.7 per cent from the month before. Meanwhile, lending to non-financial firms increased for the first time since January 2013 and the value of house purchase mortgage approvals was up slightly to £5.7bn from £5.6bn in May. Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, says this adds to "a plethora of recent data and surveys indicating that housing market activity is now really stepping up a gear" and expects house prices to see "solid but relatively limited increases" over the rest of the year, before strengthening "more markedly" in 2014. . . . The first stage of Help to Buy was launched in April, offering loans for new-build homes with a five per cent deposit. The second stage, mortgage guarantees, will launch in January and see the state take on some of the default risk by guaranteeing a proportion of the loan === - See more at: http://www.cityam.co...uss-Help-to-Buy

A $100 move is possible this week (if the Shorts get squeezed)... or even more

Look back at the Gap down last month - this is a mirror to it - But a Gap up These sorts of gaps need not be refilled - they create Islands in edit: chart

"So they'll have a joint income of about 50k and a mortage of £225k which (I think) he said was going to cost them £1200 a month" HE will do okay, unless and until there is a shock. There may not be one in the next 5-10 years ... but frankly, I will not be at all surprised if there are some Big shocks within 3-5 years. Having said that, buy cheaper properties (under GBP 150,000) outside London seems to be a good bet to me right now

Don't look straight at the camera. Look somewhere just behind it, and try pretending that you are sharing a joke with an invisible person standing behind it

I don't see how they will avoid the PHYSICAL DEFAULT BULLET headed at them. Maybe they will, but the method they will use is not clear. Perhaps they will have to SETTLE IN CASH, which would be a real shock for the market.

========== TURN-Timing : CCLI- : weekend / ParkAv : Ratio : IsHrbVw : MetHbV / TaikSh. : Ratio / CarCst : Ratio : ========== H-1997-late : 102.93 : 10-19-97 / L-1998-late : 045.71 : 10-11-98 / H-1999-spr. : 057.23 : 04-25-99 / L-2003-mid : 031.77 : 08-24-03 / e3,000 : 94.43E : H-2005-mid : 056.07 : 06-26-05 / e6,000 : 107.0E : e5,700 : 4100e / e5,400: 96.31R / 3500e : 62.42R L-2007-spr. : 054.87 : 05-20-07 / e5,100 : 92.95E : e4,800 : 3600e / e5,300: 96.59R / 2300e : 41.92R H-2008-mid : 073.23 : 06-07-08 / e7,700 : 105.1E : e7,500 : 4800e / e8,000: 109.2R / 3500e : 47.79R L-2008-end : 056.71 : 12-15-08 / e5,400 : 95.22E : e4,700 : 3500e / e5,000: 88.17R / 2500e : 44.08R H-2011-cal. : 100.72 : 06-05-11 / 10,811 : 107.3R : 09,285 : 7,292 / 10,538 : 104.6R / 5,043 : 50.07R L-2012-beg.: 094.16 : 01-08-12 / 09,654 : 102.5R : 08,762 : 6,615 / 09,160 : 97.28R / 4,610 : 48.96R H-2013-mar : 123.66 : 03-17-13 / 12,439 : 100.6R : 11,428 : 8,919 / 12,302 : 99.48R / 6,441 : 52.09R L-2013-may : 118.51 : 05-05-13 / 11,268 : 95.08R : 09,971 : 8,172 / 11,326 : 95.57R / 5,750 : 48.52R Latest - July : 120.14 : 07-15-13 / 11,921 : 99.23R : 10,136 : 8,339 / 10,998 : 91.54R / 6,054 : 50.39R ==== TURN-Timing : CCLI- : weekend / ParkAv : Ratio : IsHrbVw : MetHbV / TaikSh. : Ratio / CarCst : Ratio : ==== Note: Highs and Low for specific estates may come later or earlier http://www.greenener...showtopic=12663

TURN-Timing : CCLI- : weekend / ParkAv : Ratio : IsHrbVw : MetHbV / TaikSh. : Ratio / CarCst : Ratio : ========== H-1997-late : 102.93 : 10-19-97 / L-1998-late : 045.71 : 10-11-98 / H-1999-spr. : 057.23 : 04-25-99 / L-2003-mid : 031.77 : 08-24-03 / e3,000 : 94.43E : H-2005-mid : 056.07 : 06-26-05 / e6,000 : 107.0E : e5,700 : 4100e / e5,400: 96.31R / 3500e : 62.42R L-2007-spr. : 054.87 : 05-20-07 / e5,100 : 92.95E : e4,800 : 3600e / e5,300: 96.59R / 2300e : 41.92R H-2008-mid : 073.23 : 06-07-08 / e7,700 : 105.1E : e7,500 : 4800e / e8,000: 109.2R / 3500e : 47.79R L-2008-end : 056.71 : 12-15-08 / e5,400 : 95.22E : e4,700 : 3500e / e5,000: 88.17R / 2500e : 44.08R H-2011-cal. : 100.72 : 06-05-11 / 10,811 : 107.3R : 09,285 : 7,292 / 10,538 : 104.6R / 5,043 : 50.07R L-2012-beg.: 094.16 : 01-08-12 / 09,654 : 102.5R : 08,762 : 6,615 / 09,160 : 97.28R / 4,610 : 48.96R H-2013-mar : 123.66 : 03-17-13 / 12,439 : 100.6R : 11,428 : 8,919 / 12,302 : 99.48R / 6,441 : 52.09R L-2013-may : 118.51 : 05-05-13 / 11,268 : 95.08R : 09,971 : 8,172 / 11,326 : 95.57R / 5,750 : 48.52R Latest - July : 120.14 : 07-15-13 / 11,921 : 99.23R : 10,136 : 8,339 / 10,998 : 91.54R / 6,054 : 50.39R ==== TURN-Timing : CCLI- : weekend / ParkAv : Ratio : IsHrbVw : MetHbV / TaikSh. : Ratio / CarCst : Ratio :

Where to Live: Time Trade-offs ... / New AX thread I thought it might be worthwhile to start a new Thread, to introduce these calculations - and discuss the assumptions. ( "I live in HKI right now because the price difference between HKI and NT is not large enough to justify the loss of convenience that moving to NT would entail. However if prices were to drop substantially in NT while remaining stable in HKI I would consider moving there. " ) Where to Live ? ===== It depends how much your time is worth. Suppose it takes you work in Central, and it takes THIS long to travel from : + Office Central to your Mid-levels home: assume Robinson Place (25 mins) + Tung Chung MTR to Caribbean Coast, alternative home (15 mins) ADD ON: + Walk: Office to MTR (10 mins) + MTR Journey to Tung Chung (27 mins) ====== = EXTRA TIME to Tung Chung : 27 Mins x 2-way journey = 54 mins (say 1 hour per day) You lose about One Hour per day for the extra time to Tung Chung HOW MUCH do you save? Location : Price/ sf x 1,000 sf : x 3.5%: /Mo.s : Rent/mo : Robin.Pl : 13,366 = $13.37 mn : $ 478k /12 : $39,000 : Carib.Cs : $6,065 = $ 6.065 mn : $ 212k /12 : $17,700 : ======= There are 21 working days in a Month. To save 21 hours TRAVELING, you pay an extra : HK$ 21,300 or HK$ 1,014 per Hour What is that extra "free" time worth to you. Assume you have a 50 hour Work week, that's HK$ 50,000 per Month on Salary If your salary is LESS than that, you should consider Tung Chung, and consider how your other activities outside work would be impacted

I agree. But it may touch off something bigger, outside London especially BTW, is GBP 60,000 too much for Student Housing in Manchester ? What sort of rents are achievable?

Very good - I liked this part near the beginning: The whole thing is as baffling as Kim Kardashian's fame. But let's get back to that chart and those two lines — here it is and there they are. Source: Bloomberg . #1 : August 17, 2011: The day that Hugo Chavez, then president of Venezuela, demanded the repatriation of the 99 tons of gold (worth $13 billion at the time) from the Bank of England . Line #2 : January 14, 2013: The Bundesbank announced that it wanted its 300 tons of gold returned from the custody of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York . GOLD (and Gold receivables) as "One line items": . as their balance-sheet line items go, the world's major central banks differ to an extent: The Federal Reserve lists its gold holdings as: "Gold (including gold deposits and, if appropriate, gold swapped)" The Bank of England has what's left of theirs as: "Gold (including gold swapped or on loan)" The ECB opts for: "Gold (including gold deposits and gold swapped)" And the SNB goes with: "Gold holdings and claims from gold transactions"

A REVEALING and IN-DEPTH PRESENTATION : Kerry on various Camelot Projects ... ... ... ... ... ... "We don't need more Light Workers, we need more Light Warriors."

MM, you look so much more relaxed and natural in this one : http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=nlxtSSAPpZI You seem quite tense in the English video - your arms disappeared, and you spoke very fast The piezo-electric idea is a good one. Maybe you can use it in something less ambitious, to start with? Then build on success