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(Will they go on paying high rents? If so, HK Property investors should see some steady demand): Working expatriates like to stay in Hong Kong longer: poll South China Morning Post - ‎5 hours ago‎ Hong Kong ranks behind only the United Arab Emirates as the most popular place - where professionals working abroad want to stay longer, a survey has found. /see: http://www.scmp.com/...ong-longer-poll

AFTER the Iranian one?

A Great find, by PD ! Druckenmiller says "everything is over-valued" (stocks, real estate, Gold), because of the ZIRP (over-valued bonds): Some people think when Bonds crash, money will flow into Gold perhaps instead, people will move into non-financial assets or into cash and short term T-Bills T-BONDS - STILL IN A TRIANGLE TLT / T-Bond etf ... update

VERY SLOW - But not so slow as reported The previous information that I got from an agent in the TST / Olympic station area and reported here was wrong. I met another agent over the weekend and she told me that she did not believe the slowdown in sales was nearly as much as I had been told. So I said I would check. And I have done that now. From Modern buildings in the Olympic area the Average for 2012 was 80 Sales transactions per month. Sales are running far below that now, but nothing like as low as the first agent had told me. Following summarises the data. Which has basically been slowing since the beginning of the year, and more since the "double whammy" in late February. In April, the Centaline data showed 22 Sales, down 72% from the 2012 average, not the 90%+ I had been told by the first agent. Property--: 2012 : J-Apr'13 per month ======== MODERN Metro H.V. : 30.6 : 10.5: - 65.7 % Park Ave.. : 11.4 : 10.0: - 12.3 % Island H.V : 10.6 : 5.8- : - 45.3 % Harb. Grn : 8.9- : 5.0- : - 43.8 % Hamp. Pl.. : 4.6- : 2.8- : - 39.1 % Long Bch. : 3.1- : 2.8- : - 9.8 % Other ----- : 10.4 : 5.9- : - 43.3% ============= Olym.Area 79.6 Sales 2013 Jan : 54 : - 32.2% vs. 2012 Ave. ----- Feb. : 59 : - 25.9% ----- Mar. : 36 : - 54.8% ----- Apr . : 22 : - 72.4% ======= Jan-Apr. : 42.8 : -46.2% ===== Property--: 2012 : J-Apr'13 OLDER Cosmo Est. : 5.6- : 4.8- : - 14.3 % Charm.Gd. : 4.3- : 3.0- : - 30.2 % Prosp. Gd. : 2.5- : 1.0- : - 60.0 % Note: Prosperity Gardens is in the Kowloon Station area

CORRELATION: Between Rents and Prices If you can't sell (because the market price for selling is going down), what you do is hold and rent at a higher price (unless you have to sell to recover some losses etc etc etc)...That's why it is always fun to see all those people hoping for the market to drop ...while in many cases, it means (at least in the beginning) higher rent... Nice idea, but easily disproved by checking reality. Pretty clear that rent rises when property prices rise... and when property prices fall, so does rent. Clear that this happened in both 2008 and 2011 in the last slight property price declines. And both fell for around six years after 1997. Plotting the Hong Kong Midland Property Price 100 vs Hong Kong Midland Realty Residential Rent since 1990.... (a good post / source): http://hongkong.geoe...read262338.html

HOW SWEET IT WAS... (from OTP at AX) (sometimes you don't know how good you have it until you fall on hard times.) I just had a very frank chat with one of the local agents here, whom I have know for a few years. He was moaning about the state of the market, and after hearing some figures from him, I can understand why. He is one of the older agents, who has worked in the Olympic station area for a long time, at least back to 2008 when I first moved here. He said the Sales and Purchase market is "almost dead." Normally, he would expect perhaps 100 or more Sales transactions in a month, for the whole of the Olympic station area. In April, there were only 9 (!) transactions. So far in May, there are only 4. This really isn't enough for the agents to live on, and many agents are now being let go. The rest are under big pressure, and do not see how and when it will improve. I asked him about Rentals. He said that part of the market is "still okay", but it doesn't pay very well. On a $20,000 per month rent, they make only half a month: $10,000 commission. And that part of the market is also now a bit slow. A good month would be 150 rental transactions for modern buildings in the area, and last month was probably just over 100 (it's a slow time of year as well, I believe.) The main problem is that tenants now have a lot of choice, and so can be slower to make their minds up. When flat owners saw the market was slowing down, those with vacant flats for sale decided to rent their flats out instead. So there is now an unusually large supply of flats to rent. Will rents come down? He said that was possible, at least until the supply tightened. But there wasn't any significant drop in rents yet. (Note the extra supply at recently completed" Park Summit and Coronation seems to have been absorbed pretty well at this time.) I am sympathetic, since every honest person should be able to make a living, and I know this guy works hard. I do expect that some agents are going to start getting pretty aggressive with sellers to lower their price, because some are truly desperate.

Gold buying in Hong Kong went really nuts in April, I reckon

I have my doubts that there is so much Gold as Farrell speculates. I have two more New interviews with him on the Farrell thread - in the General section: xx

So where's all the gold coming from ? (to depress gold prices) GATA may be on the same page with Joseph Farrell (and me!) GATA have (finally!)* picked up on the "extra Gold Reserves" /Yamashita Gold story: First, here's Joseph Farrell (jump to 5:30 mins in) Farrell thinks the "extra" gold was used "to leverage a huge expansion in credit" after WW2, and was behind a secret system of finance, which may have helped to finance Black Projects (Secret Space program, etc) So where's all the gold coming from? Submitted by cpowell / Sunday, April 28, 2013 / Link Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Observing the recent smash in the paper gold market, our friend S.S. asks whether it may signify that Western government gold reserves, particularly U.S. gold reserves, are a lot larger than reported, or if world gold holdings generally are a lot larger than estimated, so much so that gold price suppression can continue for decades or centuries. He cites the famous story about the supposed hoard of looted Asian gold amassed by Japanese Army Gen. Tomoyuki Yamashita during World War II, a hoard some believe to have been spirited away by the U.S. government and used for secret operations around the world: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamashita%27s_gold Of course the world must have far more gold than is reported to government agencies and the World Gold Council. Government gold reserve data is always disinformation, as central bank gold swaps and leases are not reported (http://www.gata.org/node/12016) and governments sometimes don't fully report gold in their possession (http://www.gata.org/node/9545). Nobody -- not peasants in India, the new middle class in China, coin collectors in the United States, and lordly old families in Europe -- files a public inventory of his gold possessions. == == * Please Note: I raised this issue in a pretty aggressive way at a Gold conference in HK last year. Chris Powell, was in attendance, and I also asked him some questions about the amount of Gold. (Of course, I first heard about this in Ben Fulford's column, so he deserves full credit if it proves to be true.)

That's why I have suggested the DOWNSIZE maneuver to those who can afford to leave London. I think outside London prices may benefit more (percentage wise) from the current prop-job than inside, and the Ratio will narrow But perhaps it may take a while for this rally to get rolling /source: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17737 BTW: Are HPC-ers talking about a likely Rally outside London ?

That's why I have suggested the DOWNSIZE maneuver to those who can afford to leave London. I think outside London prices may benefit more (percentage wise) from the current prop-job than inside, and the Ratio will narrow But perhaps it may take a while for this rally to get rolling /source: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17737 BTW: Are HPC-ers talking about a likely Rally outside London ?

I want to see if we get a retest - and if so, on how much volume

UK Property is coming down... ... even though Prices may still be rising /see: http://www.dailyreco...-iconic-1128933

Nice charts ! Especially the COT charts - I added a few line markers

Quirky real estate seems to be hard to sell these days. ... / see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17758

Thanks for that intel. What happened to prices at that time, CS?

Property shares (esp. HK-12) have provided "clues" on prior turns in the Long Cycle . (1) . (2) . Update : Henderson Properties / HK-12 ... update : Logscale ...

In response to a comment on AX: "OTP today you can buy property in Mid level at 12-13k psf range.. around 5-10% premium to Taikoo Shing." I don't doubt this one bit - But I do wonder how representative a 5-10% premium would be for all of Mid-Levels? . Here are some figures for some Benchmark MId-Levels estates, as appear on the Centaline Index. . Week : CCLI--- : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast: Clovell: MLave // TaikSh. (all Psf, Gross) ==== . 04/21: 118.71: 16,036 : 19,788 : 24,101 : 23,712: 20,909 / 11,878 / CCLI : 1.000 - : 135.01 : 166.69: 203.02: 199.75 : 176.14 / 100.06 . Using the average of these Four Properties, ML is a 76% premium to Taikoo Shing. . So if TK hits $10,000 at CCLI-100, then ML properties (ave.of 4) would not be at $10,000, or like: $17,600 psf. And ML Gross-psf prices will not hit $10,000 until CCLI falls far below that. I calculate that CCLI would need to come down to maybe 57. That's an unlikely prospect IMHO. . Before leaving this, I also want to look at prices expressed in Per SF, Net - which follows: . Week : CCLI--- : RobinPl: Tregun : Dynast: Clovell: MLave // TaikSh. (all Psf, Net) ==== . Efficiency----- : 82.24%: 78.96%: 78.27%: 83.50%: 80.61%/ 87.31% 04/21: 118.71: 19,500 : 25,062 : 30,791 : 28,399: 25,938 / 13,603 / CCLI : 1.000- : 164.27 : 211.12 : 259.38 : 239.23 : 218.50 / 114.59 . . Where's the Top? I believe that there is an 18 year cycle operating in the HK property market, and I do not see a peak until 2015-2017. If true, we may see at least one more wild ride to the upside before HK property rolls over.

CASEY Research says... Buy Gold NOW Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst You've undoubtedly read about the dramatic increase in demand for gold and silver bullion products since the big correction two weeks ago. Supply has gotten tight, premiums are rising, and inventory is hard to come by, especially for certain silver products. But it's worse than you may know. Many of these reports come from the retail side of the business, including those from sovereign mints. This information is indicative, but more important is the activity among the wholesalers. It's possible the retail trade is just experiencing a giant bottleneck, which would come with a different set of conclusions than if behind the scenes the wholesale industry is seeing net sales. So we decided to talk to the wholesalers directly: the bullion banks, traders, and refiners. These entities typically deal in wholesale trades only, exclusively in large amounts, and solely with major entities that include dealers and investment funds. There was a catch, however. In speaking with these entities, we realized one thing: they won't publicly reveal themselves. So we can't tell you who they are, and in fact, they wouldn't speak by phone, only in person. This means you have to take our report on trust – or not – as you wish; we simply don't have permission to reveal names (we did ask). We can say this, though: we spoke with almost all the major ones. Here's a summary of what they told us occurred during the week of April 15-19 (the 15th was gold's 9.3% selloff)… Bullion Banks. As a group, there were roughly four times as many buy orders as normal. Generally speaking, the buy/sell ratio was nine to one. Inflows (buying vs. selling) were net positive across the board. Bullion Traders: There were twice as many trades placed as usual – and the buy/sell ratio was a whopping 95:1. One anonymous dealer told us it had 995 buy orders that week and just five sell orders. Reports like this were consistent among the group. What's interesting is that all traders reported higher volume. That the increased buying occurred on large volume instead of small volume means the buying was not a fluke. It also confirms the bull market isn't over. Precious Metals Refiners: These entities deal in large trades only. None would reveal the quantity of their orders, but two stated they had no sell orders. A third told us they had one sell order out of 100 transactions. What we learned from these big players is that no one was a net seller. There was across-the-board purchasing, and on significantly increased volumes. We heard more than once that "We've never seen anything like this." And that includes the 2008-2009 period. While some of this may sound familiar to what we've heard on the retail side, keep in mind that these are the entities that supply your local dealer. So if your favorite shop found it difficult to access product last week, their woes are unlikely to let up. What we conclude from this research is that the availability of bullion is likely to get worse before it gets better. If so, it also means premiums will continue to rise. Remember that in early 2009, at the peak of the last big supply deficit, premiums for silver Eagles reached as high as 90-100% before coming back down. In that light, a 25% premium for a silver Eagle today doesn't look so bad. The disconnect between the paper price of gold and the demand for physical metal is so great that we want to bring this to your attention so that you can make an informed decision about whether or not to buy gold now.

See Below: / Looks a tad dangerous - Maybe await a retrace, or at least a partial retest

In reaction to: Loyd, centadata at 100 means 9K-9.5K psf in Mid levels.. which is still very high.. for a 3% mortgage rate.. to make a decent return.. 100 is not out of reach.. (Was posted): I would expect some strong buying if Mid-Levels hits $10,000 psf. And so if gdep's calculations are right, then maybe above CCL-100. I note that Taikoo Shing is now / Div. by CCLI : Gross : $11,878 / 118.71 = 100.06 Net --- : $13,603 / 118.71 = 114.59 ===== That suggests that TS will be almost exactly $10,000 psf-Gross, if CCLI hits 100. ... and maybe $11,459 psf-Net at the same time. Is Mid-Levels really just 5-10% above a... er, "tired" place like Taikoo Shing?

From the UK Property: Intelligent Design? thread There's a record "edge" available in the trade right now, since the Ratio of London to The-Rest-of-the-UK is at all-time highs of 335% : see- Latest Data / Index----- : Feb. 2013 : Mar.2013 : Apr.2013 : Rmv: Gr.London : £486,298 : £496,298 : £493,635 : Hali-Wide, all UK : £162,011 : £164,280 : Rest-of-the-UK-- : £146,748 : £148,259 : Ratio: GrL / Rest : R - 331% : R - 335% :

Does Intelligent Design Exist? Actually, the pensioners should be thanking their lucky stars for this latest insane policy. What a wonderful opportunity for shifting assets it affords for London-based pensioners ! They can sell their overpriced property in London, and buy something larger and newer for half price outside London (in Chichester or whatever ), and retire there. No doubt, many will be able to pay off all their debts if they do that, but why not take a fixed rate, and the cheap government money, and move some cash out of a country stupid enough to offer a crazy deal. They can eliminate the exposure to falling Sterling that way, and have a golden retirement. This nutty policy was designed to give boomers a golden retirement, and leave a mess for the next generation. If I was thirty-something and living in London, I would be as angry as a mad terrorist.

Does Intelligent Design Exist? Actually, the pensioners should be thanking their lucky stars for this latest insane policy. What a wonderful opportunity for shifting assets it affords for London-based pensioners ! They can sell their overpriced property in London, and buy something larger and newer for half price in Chichester (or whatever - outside London), and retire there. No doubt, many will be able to pay off all their debts if they do that, but why not take a fixed rate, and the cheap government money, and move some cash out of a country stupid enough to offer a crazy deal. They can eliminate the exposure to falling Sterling that way, and have a golden retirement. This nutty policy was designed to give boomers a golden retirement, and leave a mess for the next generation. If I was thirty-something and living in London, I would be as angry as a mad terrorist.

Looks like a (relative) Bargain. There must be a reason How easy is it to rent?