drbubb

And you are very welcome indeed. It is a good time to join - I have a feeling that market volatility may soon increase, and some very "interesting" times lie ahead (no Chinese curse intended!)

Yes, prices are very high on a Global basis, but not quite the highest: MOST EXPENSIVE CITIES For buying a 1,292 sq ft Luxury flat Location- : USD psf : HKD psf Monaco-- : $ 4,864 : $37,696 London-- : $ 2,396 : $18,569 HK Island : $ 1,893 : $14,671 Paris----- : $ 1,843 : $14,282 Moscow-- : $ 1,632 : $12,648 source: Global Property Guide ==== Compared to these other cities, HK has: + Lower taxes + Lower interest rates + Better rates of wealth creation + More limited supply The HK govt now wants to bring down the high prices, and they may succeed, if they make enough cheap land available, and/or some sort of shock in the global economy arrives

New Members: === Welcome to: + GoldieHawn + Happy I look forward to hearing from you ! More: + dghita + jono / # 4,683 + Alainco / + ----- / + junior43050 / # 4,686

Still Bullish after all of these years

Another Real Estate Bubble? November 20, 2012 Under Bernanke, the Fed launched three rounds of 'QE' plus 'Operation Twist' in between. One of the objectives is to drive mortgage rates lower. In theory, that should stimulate housing. Using $1,000 per month as the amount of mortgage payment that a borrower can afford, these are the loan amounts at various mortgage rates: Mortgage Interest Loan Amount 6% $166,667 5% $186,220 4% $209,644 3% $236,967 This example illustrates that borrowers that are qualified for a $1,000 per month mortgage payment can borrow 25.9% more if the mortgage rate is 4% instead of 6%. Therefore, in theory, if Bernanke's QEs resulted in rates declining from 6% to 4%, property values should appreciate by 25% if all else were equal. The fact that property values have not appreciated by 25% (with the exception of isolated pockets) would suggest that Bernanke's QEs only succeeded in slowing down the decline in property prices. How significant is this mortgage rate vs. price illustration? Using September data from DQNews, 25.2% of sales in Southern California were financed via the FHA, 24.7% in Phoenix and 35.2% in Vegas. Without artificially low rates, these sales would either be non-existent or be at a proportionally lower price. === /more: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1020051-another-real-estate-bubble

Yo Home / see previous, or: http://yo.co.uk Hmm. Seems great, so long as: + You do not need a change of clothes + You don't have a suitcase + You don't own a book, or want to store 1-2 weeks of different foods + The counter-weight systems never break down or require maintenance What it I don't drink wine, and want to store a bicycle instead It looks enormously impractical to me It is like a Hong Kong show flat: No one can actually LIVE in one of those

My four-in-one flats will re-invent the way we live, says ex-Dragons' Den star <img alt="Yahoo! News" class="yiv434661182logo" style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.2em; outline: none;" title="" />By Simon Garner | Yahoo! News – 16 hours ago, 20 NOV 2012 Source link: http://uk.news.yahoo...e-19112012.html Click on http://yo.co.uk/ to view the video and share with your students. It is cool. The materials are gloss finished, which do NOT attract dusts. The four-in-one apartment News Video 1:37An ex-Dragons' Den star wants to revolutionise the property market by building luxury homes inside the … A former star of BBC hit TV show Dragons' Den wants to revolutionise the property market by building luxury homes boasting several 'rooms' inside a tiny studio flat space. Simon Woodroffe has created a home which offers four times the rooms within the confines of a typical one-bedroom flat. His YO! Home prototype works by hiding rooms which then appear at the touch of a button or the pull of a wall - with an amazing bedroom lowered down from the ceiling.

that would take a lot of time, and i am not sure how fruitful it would be

The usual horse-pucky from RM. The Sept-Oct jump this year was "less than normal" too/ Prices have dropped back to very near August levels, which is completely normal, and is nothing special AT ALL ! Do these jerks actually THINK when they look at their data, or do they simply spin.

Delusion Melting? Or Just a Normal Seasonal Drop? Righmove's asking prices are down in November Key points New sellers drop asking prices by 2.6% (-£6,407), the least severe November fall for three years Prices up by 2% (+£4,617) year-on-year – the highest annual rate of increase seen in November since 2007 and still up by 0.2% year-on-year with the ‘London effect’ removed Further positive signs for the market: - Rightmove search activity up 20% and enquiries up 11% on same time last year - Supply tightening in lower price brackets pushing up prices on terraces and flats by over 4% - Bank of England reports mortgage approvals up 9.2% on last quarter Diminished equity restricts preparation for new year marketing, with only 17% of sellers willing or able to spend on a ‘make-over’ even if they would achieve a higher price === http://www.rightmove...x/november-2012 === PDF : http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2012/11/november-2012.pdf

If too many people withdraw for Mainstream (taxable) activities, the schools will not stay free

Yeah. Even better to be debtfree with a salary. Debtfree where: ====== + You do not need a car (it's okay to own one) + School fees are not too heavy + You can grow some food in your own garden + Water is available (capture rainwater?), and you can put solar cells on your own home In short, you are close to self-sustaining. Then you can easily bear the future price volatility that may lie ahead - And the salary is like a bonus

Yeah, since that will deliver a much-reduced Cost of Living - that's great when you no longer have a salary

It might be useful to separate debt-free home ownership, from the other sort, where you are enslaved to a bank's mortgage If you have 100% mortgage, you dont really own anything

Was 9/11 an Inside Job? "Absolutely!", says ex- CIA Asset, Susan Lindauer ... amongst many other things in this revealing interview: Kerry Cassidy interviews Susan Lindauer for AFR MP3 : http://www.americanfreedomradio.com/archive/Project-Camelot-32k-111412.mp3 Kerry discusses her idea that Petreus may have been the leader of a coup. SL says it is possible, and agrees it could be aimed against the Bush cabal. Lindauer speaks very highly of Petraeus, and thinks this story was invented to frame him. ("What is the FBI doing, reading 20,000 pages of private emails?" ... "They want budget". "The FBI was acting like a KGB in Iraq. They are privatizing now.") KC: "Petraeus was getting ready to point the finger at Hillary Clinton for Bengazy." SL: "I think it is bigger than that. It is a coup. The military knows what is coming, and is resisting it." . . . : "I heard Stevens was heavily involved in arming the Syria freedom fighters." . . . : "Stevens was sodomized. This was an Al Qaeda attack. They are funded by the US." . . . : "Gordon Duff is an asset, who OFTEN has misinformation. Nevertheless, I love Veterans Today." SL: "Here's what is going on Globally: Israel is trying to pull us into war, by attacking Syria." . . . : "The Israelis and Obama are trying to open a pathway to war, and they know Petraeus will oppose it." . . . : "We may be a lot closer to martial law than almost everyone realizes. Maybe only a few months. SL : There is no financial crisis. The $2 Trillion in missing money has been found, & is worth $10 Trillion We can eliminate the federal deficit. It will fall by $10 Trillion. I know where the money is, & have documentation. We want to make sure the money goes to the American people.

(Duplicate post from DrB's Diary - also look at BDEV: 186.8p down 0.43% yesterday): The A-B-C down in UK Property prices, still needs a C down, before it bottoms Back in 2008, this chart was posted on GEI: So what happened ?: Since 2002: Since 2009: (up to June 2012: £164,489) Latest: Oct. 2012 : £161,986

(Duplicate post from DrB's Diary - also look at BDEV: 186.8p down 0.43% yesterday): The A-B-C down in UK Property prices, still needs a C down, before it bottoms Back in 2008, this chart was posted on GEI: So what happened ?: Since 2002: Since 2009: (up to June 2012: £164,489) Latest: Oct. 2012 : £161,986

I get the sense that this is going to eventually trigger a big price spike

Mortgage approvals plunged by nearly a fifth in September, a survey said today, amid warnings that a multibillion-pound lending scheme will take time to have an impact. The total number of house purchase loans approved in September was 44,400, down 18% from 53,900 in the previous month and down 9% on the same month last year, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said. However, the number of remortgaging loans increased month-on-month to 24,600 in September. The CML figures clash with lending figures released by the Bank of England at the end of last month which said the number of loans approved for house purchase rose in September in a tentative sign its Funding for Lending scheme (FLS) was working. The Bank reported an encouraging start to the £80 billion initiative, with 30 groups signed up, but the CML warned it would take time to filter through to lending. === /more: http://www.standard....es-8306730.html A very meaningful drop ! The Lowest figure since early 2009 (except Dec. 2010) === Mortgage Approvals = : - 2006 - / - 2007 - / - 2008- / - 2009- / - 2010- / - 2011- / - 2012- / J. : 121,000 : 121,000 : 73,000 : 31,000 : 48,198 : 45,723 : 58,728 F : 115,000 : 120,000 : 72,000 : 37,937 : 47,094 : 46,967 : 48,986 M : 117,000 : 114,000 : 64,000 : 39,230 : 48,901 : 47,557 : 49,860 A : 108,000 : 109,000 : 58,000 : 43,201 : 49,871 : 45,166 : 51,823 M : 115,000 : 113,000 : 42,000 : 43,414 : 49,815 : 45,940 : 51,089 J. : 119,000 : 113,000 : 36,000 : 47,584 : 47,643 : 48,421 : 44,192 Jl : 117,000 : 112,000 : 33,000 : 50,123 : 48,722 : 49,239 : 47,312 A : 118,000 : 106,000 : 32,000 : 52,317 : 47,372 : 52,410 : 53,900 S : 124,000 : 100,000 : 33,000 : 56,215 : 47,474 : 50,967 : 44,400 O : 129,000 : 089,000 : 32,000 : 57,345 : 47,185 : 52,743 N : 131,000 : 083,000 : 27,000 : 60,518 : 48,019 : 52,854 D : 115,000 : 072,000 : 31,000 : 59,023 : 42,563 : 52,939

London 'to be overtaken by New York and Hong Kong' for finance jobs 11 November 2012 London is on course to lose its top spot as the world's biggest financial centre by number of jobs. The number of jobs in financial services in London will be below the number in New York and Hong Kong by 2015, according to the Sunday Times. London is losing its dominance due to a shift to the east, according to researchers at Cebr, the economic consultancy, but also due to "short-sighted over-regulation, penal taxation and banker bashing" in the UK. The Government could reportedly lose about £30 billion to £40 billion a year in tax receipts because of the decline in City activity, compared with revenues received at the peak of 2007. London's financial services sector employed 280,000 people in 2011, compared with 262,000 people in New York. However, City jobs will fall to 249,500 this year against 254,000 for America's financial capital, according to the Cebr. By 2015, London will employ 237,000 - a third less than at the peak in 2007 - against 249,700 in New York and 247,900 in Hong Kong. Cebr economist Rob Harbron told the Sunday Times: "Hong Kong has jumped from half London's size to overtaking London within a decade." /see: http://www.standard....bs-8304763.html Who is buying all those expensive new properties? Many are being bought by people from HK

Well, let's consider what might drive the Rightmove index down faster than HaliWide: + A collapse in demand for high end properties, and a panic by sellers, so they reduce asking prices + More low end properties coming on the market Both are possible, even likely, if sentiment changes

Detlev on London Property, and BOE monetary policy Bizarrely, the central bankers seem to believe they are doing all of us a great favour. “Look,” they seem to say, “five years into the crisis and prices are not falling! Hooray, no deflation!” – Yes, and that is precisely the problem. A personal example We have lived in London for 16 years and for quite some time I felt that we could do with a larger apartment or house, given the size of our family. For years we have been potential buyers of real estate in London. During the tail end of the recent cheap-money-fuelled housing boom, we remained on the sidelines. After the bubble burst you might think that this was now a good opportunity to get into the market. But thanks to zero-interest rates from the Bank of England, various bank bailouts, quantitative easing, and other ‘stimulus’ measures, prices have not been falling in many parts of London, or not by much. Fact is, these policies have kept house prices in many parts of the country at artificially high levels in my view. In any case, these policies have certainly not ‘stimulated’ me into putting my own money to work. Lower prices might have done so – as might have any perception that the bubble had clearly dissolved, that the market had been allowed to liquidate what was unsustainable, and that present prices were now ‘real’ uninhibited market prices. Of course, none of this is the case due to highly interventionist policies. In the meantime, all the advocates of aggressive monetary stimulus are high-fiving themselves for having (so far at least) avoided deflation, having protected the housing market (which means protecting those who borrowed recklessly in the boom), and saved the banks. . . . ... I am supposed to go home to my wife and say, “The crisis is evidently over. Home prices are going up! Come think of it, those London home prices will never fall. They can only ever go up! Let’s take our savings, take out a mortgage and buy now before the Bank of England makes them even more expensive!” ==== /more: http://detlevschlich...ut-real-prices/ Save the banks, spoil the economy

I get your point: by calling it a "Delusion Index", it suggests it has more meaning that it really does. With the index now at 150%, it does not mean that Seller's are now offering properties at a 50% premium to where the deals get done. Instead, this is a sort of ratio between Green Apples and Red Apples (they are not exactly the same thing) but they are similar things. I think the Ratio IS MEANINGFUL, since it shows how the Rightmove figures are behaving in relation to Hali-Wide. A fat premium tends to get whittled down over time, and there is a tendency for ratio to revert to Moving Averages. BTW, why do you think Rightmove's index is now at such a fat premium to other indicies?

It does chart well And it may be "top heavy" at 150% - highest reading yet. If the "high asks" don't pull prices up, then the much "lower bids" may drag prices down