drbubb

Indeed. It is a disadvantage that people like Warren Buffet have repeatedly pointed out. Today's SCMP talks about ... Cycle of price gains coming to an end "The 'super cycle' of gains across commodity prices may be coming to an end as a production of raw material rises in response to higher prices and as the mainland's dominance in demand receeds, according to Citicorp." The story was first written by Bloomberg in London

I don't see much "driving up of prices" - even when I look at Gold in Euros. Meantime, the WSJ is talking about people abandoning gold: Some Bullion Bulls Pulling Back Interest in Gold is easing amid signs the US economy is stabilizing; Metal down 7% from year's peak "Gold's star is shining a little less brightly... fans are wondering whether the metal is due for a pause." (At $1650, is xx% the $1920 high - I would say there's been a major "pause" already.) "...Belief that governments will launch new rounds of stimulus... that belief has been shaken with signs the US economy is stabilizing." "...Hedge Funds increased by 87% their bets that prices will fall." "A sustained pause in gold could have far-reaching consequences for investors... a new phase of the halting recovery." "Any good news economically, is bad news for Gold." I expect that the negative sentiment on Gold may be telling us a bottom is not far away. There's another article about Copper in the WSJ: For Copper Miners, the Tide is turning "Hudbay Minerals said copper supply is likely to outpace demand by late 2013... but that might last a little more than a year, given the tendency for supply disruptions." "A price drop when supply exceeds demand looks likely, but may come even sooner. China is slowing already." === === I do WONDER a bit, what the old traditional "gold purists" who used to overwhelm GEI with pro-Gold posts are thinking now? If they are shy and feeling like they are "licking their wounds", then very possibily the low has arrived. Our remaining posters seem to be safe, confident, and waiting for opportunities, while grabbing them carefully, using some options to keep exposures down. Our remaining regulars were mostly warning people to "be careful" when Gold was at/near $1900, and they are seeing opportunity now, not a reason to panic.

Nope. Rightmove is an "Asking Price" index and it bounces around too much. I have always used Haliwide, Non-seasonally adjusted, and that has been rangebound for many months. I think if it breaks to the downside, it may signal an important move down. But I doubt that will happen until AFTER the Olympics === === Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,331 +0.95% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,712 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% : A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 155,218 +1.23% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,393 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% : 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 146,967 - 0.28% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,737 : 464,944 : = n/a = : = n/a = / ====================================== mom:+2.87% : +2.15 % : -Est.DI : 149.5% / +0.38% = n/a = :+2.30% :+2.85% :+1.60% === I regard Rightmove's data as reflecting extreme Delusion on the part of sellers ("electric H@rshite maybe"). As of end-April, the UK-wide RMV figures are pitched 3.36% above 2011, and London asking prices were 7.87% above 2011. Meanwhile, HaliWide at end of March 2012 was BELOW end March and ena April 2011. Good luck to those very aggressive sellers in finding someone foolish enough to pay their very delusional asking prices. They must be smoking something with strong psychotropic effects - especially in London. If the aggressive buying does not emerge, there may be a long hard fall in the seller's expectations.

From the Trillion Dollar lawsuit thread: Joseph Farrell is also talking about the possibility of Gold price manipulation, and how "secret gold" might flood back into the market and depress the price:

Outlying Island - Interest is rising =============== Posted by OffThePeak on: Historical Prices: Lamma, Cheung Chau, Peng Chau Prices ====== Month : MaWan : DiscBay : SLant. : Ch'ngC : PengCh : Apr11 : $5,338 : $5,006 : $3,712 : $2,441 : $1,882 psf May11 : $5,405 : $5,348 : $2,650 : $2,589 : $2,280 Jun.11 : $5,583 : $5,199 : $2,480 : $2,294 : $2,444 July11 : $5,499 : $5,460 : $3,764 : $2,464 : $2,242 Aug11 : $5,457 : $5,385 : $3,655 : $2,329 : $2,537 Sep11 : $5,457 : $4,991 : $3,655 : $2,329 : $2,537 Oct11 : $5,665 : $5,781 : $2,713 : $2,329 : $2,138 Nov11 : $5,511 : $5,477 : $2,713 : $2,329 : $2,138 Dec11 : $5,329 : $5,240 : $5,607 : $2,329 : $4,013 Jan12 : $5,258 : $5,008 : $5,205 : $1,554 : $2,251 Feb12 : $5,356 : $5,356 : $4,899 : $4,257 : $2,377 Mar12: $6,827 : $5,600 : $5,212 : $4,257 : $2,014 ====== /source: http://transactions.gohome.com.hk/records/Peng-Chau/en/ I wonder how futures prices will be effected by policies from the Leung administration. Will CYL decide he wants to "develop the islands"?

I know how you feel. But do you think that the UK government itself can afford to bail out all those who cannot afford what they bought? That JUMP in Rightmove-April may be a knock-on effect to the jump in Halifax. Will the buyers monetize their fantasies? I really doubt it. But you need a "high print" to form a top. F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 149,658 +1.83% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 151,853 +1.47% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 243,800? ====================================== mom:+2.9?% : +1.31 % : -Est.DI : 145.0% / +0.38% = n/a = :+2.30% :+2.85% :+1.60%

Confidence in London may hold up into the Olympics. I wonder if prices will start crumbling before that elsewhere, now that the FTBers Stamp tax holiday is over

Something like North/South, is the London versus Rest-of-UK Divide: A break of GBP 145,000* for Rest-of-UK may signal something really nasty is ahead === === *I will be redoing this chart, and my data method, since I do not like how this charts

Interesting. "The market" sees lower prices too. Even so, if you can sell at/near mid-price, March might be a good short, albeit it picks up some of the Spring Rally

Get Set for a Sharp Drop - This chart suggests ! The family of moving averages that I use as technical idnicators have served me well over the years. And they are suggesting that the UK Hali-Wide Index is rolling over and may be poised for a sharp fall. Specifically, the Index is now below both the 12mo. and 48mo. MA's and they are also rolling over and should act as resistance. In effect, the MA's may help to "guide" the index in a sharp fall. Indicator : Index--- : 12mo.MA : 48mo.MA Hali-Wide : £163,373 : 163,626 : 164,263 This possibility also fits the fundamental set-up. Olympic hype in London, and the imminent expiry of a stamp duty holiday (for First Time buyers) have helped to buoy the index, holding it up into this spring. But the global economy is showing signs of deterioration again, after the Olympics are over, the important London market may be facing a hangover, dragging London prices and the entire index lower. A logical expectation would be a drop of an amount to similar to the first one, after the 2008 high: ====== : First----/-Time- : Second/-Time- Top--- : £192,490-08/'07 : £169,287-04/'10 change:-£39,013-18mos : -£39,013-??mos Low--- : £153,477-02/'09 : £130,274-??? The great thing about using the MA's is that they will give a clear indication when I am reading the market wrongly. A move above them, especially if it is accompanied by a rise in trabsaction volume, would be a signal that the market is not going to slide in the way I am expecting.

You must be right. And clearly, it is MY OWN memory which is short.

Watch Gold and Stocks for a warning that mass arrests, and a big change in power and currencies are headed our way. There is NO GUARANTEE they will go up. They may both plummet, or go in different directions. You may discover that the Jim Sinclairs (etc) are not really the "good guys" that you think they are... (Or I may be wrong, and apologise here. Lots can happen.)

MEMORIES ARE SHORT ! I read this in today's SCMP : Rush for tax break boosts UK home index A house-price index in Britain rose to a 21-month high last month as first-time buyers took advantage of an expiring two-year stamp-duty examption, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said. The guage rose three points from February to minus 10, the highest reading since June 2010... The tac break was available on first homes costing less than GBP 250,000. (Indeed. That neatly explains last month's jump in the Halifax Index): Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2012 J. : : 224,060 : 438,324 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 162,228 = n/a = 160,907 158,879 : £160,554 : - 0.16% :139.6% : F. : : 233,252 : 449,252 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 162,712 = n/a = 160,118 158,897 : £160,805 :+ 0.16% :145.1% : M : : 236,939 : 455,159 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,327 = n/a = 163,803 163,419 : £163,373 :+ 1.60% :145.0% : A : : 2XX,xxx ====================================== mom:+1.58% : +1.31 % : -Est.DI : 145.0% / +0.38% = n/a = :+2.30% :+2.85% :+1.60% I wonder how many here can recall what happened back in 1989, when there was an important change in the tax law. I think it was June 1989 when it was the last month that two unrelated persons could buy a property together, and still get a tax break on the interest paid on a mortgage. Prices rose straight up, into a little surge, and then topped right with the tax change. The more things change...

Many GEI members are long it. Isn't that a good enough reason? It is not as if Gold has this dilemma: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtKcdzaqq40

The Slow grind down is still underway To make sense of the Barratt's price move, I have redrawn the trend lines BDEV.L / Barratt Development ... update The "ugly" and destructive wave 3 down may be underway.

Greyerz – Gold Bottom, $25 Trillion in Debt, ECB & Swiss Franc Friday, April 6th, 2012 KingWorldNews.com April 6, 2012 Egon von Greyerz told King World News that around the world, the average debt to GDP is at a staggering 350%. Egon von Greyerz is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland. Von Greyerz also stated that even if the number was cut in half,... »

COMPARE: Robinson Place : 14,189 to 13,795 : - 2.78% to Island Harb'vw. : $9,016 to $9,550 : + 5.92% That's a relative gain on +8.7% for the West Kowloon property. Will the new MTR line enhance the performance of Mid-Levels? Maybe not. Only if it is close enough to actually reduce commuting times. I do expect that nicer buildings in Sheung Wan or Kennedy Town may gain on those remote and hard to reach ML buildings that some expats still favor. And as those ML buildings get older and more rundown, and builders keep pushing up new towers, making it more crowded, then the "lustre" of a ML location may continue to fade. UNQUOTE /from: What's wrong with the Mid-Levels?: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/135960/whats-wrong-with-the-mid-levels?/

ANOTHER POINT of view - Does this extreme sentiment mean the correction's end is near ? Gold Collapse ... the Bubble Is Pricked? Gold prices plunge overnight – is the rush over? ... Has the gold boom come to an end? The price of gold, which has climbed for years like a blood pressure reading for anxious investors, plunged overnight to its lowest level in three months. Gold fell almost $US58 to $1,614 per ounce. It has declined 15 per cent since September, when it hit a peak of $1,907. It had more than doubled from the financial crisis three years earlier. The decline on Wednesday came on an ugly day in the stock market. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 125 points a day that last year probably would have caused fearful investors to buy gold as a protective investment. "It's difficult to forecast, but I think the gold bull market is over," said Cetin Ciner, a professor of finance at the University of North Carolina-Wilmington. He likened the surge in gold to dot-com stocks before they collapsed. – New Zealand Herald News Read more: http://www.thedailybell.com/3766/Gold-Collapse-the-Bubble-Is-Pricked

A good move, which I missed, would have been to Buy GLD Apr-$160 puts, when GLD was at $164 just two days ago

(I suppose this is a reflection of the sorts of comments you see on Lows. But that on its own does not make me bullish): The end of the gold bull is on the horizon By Howard Gold NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The last decade has been a bonanza for investors smart or lucky enough to buy gold. From their April 2001 low of $256 an ounce, gold prices soared 640% to their September 2011 peak. While large U.S. stocks slogged through a lost decade, gold returned 21% a year. Investor interest, long dormant since the age of the gold bugs in the late 1970s, was rekindled as the SPDR Gold Trust ETF / GLD offered a cheap, liquid way to own this most coveted of metals. Even high-profile hedge funds jumped aboard. But lately gold’s winning streak appears to have stalled. As I write this, gold is sitting on its 200-day moving average and sells 14% below its all-time high of $1,895 an ounce. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index have hit post-crisis highs, but gold prices keep tumbling. At Wednesday’s close, it changed hands at $1,635.70 an ounce. Gold’s supporters remain steadfastly bullish. But some brave contrarians say the decade of gold is ending not with a bang but with a whimper. They even challenge the conventional wisdom that gold is destined to rise as long as central bankers keep printing money. If all that additional liquidity doesn’t turn into high inflation, why own gold at all? Mark Williams raised those questions in an op-ed in the Financial Times last fall. He’s a former bank examiner and risk analyst who teaches at Boston University and wrote a book, “Uncontrolled Risk,” about the fall of Lehman Brothers. “The last bull market for gold ended in 1980, when prices fell by 60%,” he wrote. “The bubble is popping again. This time, gold could drop to $700 an ounce, more than $1,000 below its peak.” His reasoning? Economies and banks are slowly recovering from the crash and financial crisis. The Greek debt deal averted a major meltdown in Europe. And despite central banks’ alleged “money printing,” we haven’t seen the inflation that has accompanied big runs by gold in the past. “Gold is a hedge against inflation,” Williams told me in an interview. “You’ve seen a run-up over the last decade and there’s no inflation to speak of.” Technically he’s right. From 2001 to 2011, the consumer price index rose on average 2.4% a year and never topped 4% growth, even in 2008 when oil and commodity prices soared briefly. By contrast, the CPI rose by an average 7.9% annually during gold’s last great bull market from 1971-1980, and there were three years when inflation exceeded 10%. Money isn’t really sloshing around Ah, ask the gold bulls, but won’t all the money the central banks issued to save the banking system eventually cause inflation, if not hyperinflation? The Federal Reserve increased its balance sheet by $2 trillion in its various rounds of quantitative easing, which involved buying Treasurys and other government securities. That’s led to a similar increase in the reserves banks hold, which is why economist James Hamilton of the University of California-San Diego wrote: ”The Fed is creating reserves as opposed to printing money.” “If you back out those excess reserves, you’re looking at a monetary growth rate at 3%-4%,” said Prof. John Tatom of Indiana State University. /source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-end-of-the-gold-bull-is-on-the-horizon-2012-03-16?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Flying the Yellow flag now on DrB's diary:

I don't completely agree with him, or I would be selling down some of my Gold positions. But I shall remain alert to mores signs of an emerging markets slowdown* Another thing his colleague said to me was: "Goldman has just come out recommending a puchase of Gold and Gold share, and you know what that means..." (A Bull call by MS - on its own - would be less a "kiss of death" than a Gold Bull call by GS.) === === === *in fact, here's an excerpt from a follow-up email, suggesting the that bad times are continuing to roll: Subject: A Few interesting facts! Europe down 20bps - Italy and Spain down 1.5% on Bundesbank comments “not accepting bank bonds supported by Greece, Portugal, Ireland and troubled nations as collateral” 1. Futures sold off as Bundesbank rejected bank bonds backed by troubld nations 2. CHINA Mar Mfg PMI 53.1 (c 50.5) 12mo hi - HSBC Mfg 48.3 (c 49.6 pr). 4mo low 3. China: PMI # distorted by rebound in tobacco/metal - China closed til Thurs 4. JAPAN Q1 TANKAN large Mfg -4 vs. cons -1 (2nd quarter of contraction). Weak 5. EU Mar PMI Mfg inline - 47.7 (c 47.7) - France notable miss: 46.7 (c 47.6) 6. Italy PM Monti: decided not to ask for capital support fm EFSF 7. Some large EU banks to partially repay LTRO loans within next 12mo – FT B.

EXCERPT: Gold has been flim-flamming around in a trading range for so long now - over 6-months from the September panic low - that we ought to be able to discern what kind of pattern is evolving. Well, we can, and there are 2 alternative explanations, both of which are bullish, and neither of which contradicts the other because they are complementary - because they are both valid interpretations of what is going on... I hope he is right, I have been buying GLD calls and some Gold too. But not everyone whom I rate in Gold forecasting is as bullish as I am. I met with my Hedge Fund manager friend B, and showed him this chart: He doesn't think that the fundamental set-up is anything like 2006. Instead, he sees a slowdown in China and other emerging markets. He thinks that this will show up as a continuing drift downwards in commodity prices, including Gold. And there may even be a sharper slide, like in 2008 in his view. It is good to understand the points of view of those whom you disagree with.

Q. on AX: "Anybody holding Sun Kai Properties this week?" I sold all my SHKP shares within a few weeks after buying them near last year's lows. (Actually, I have now sold ALL my property developer shares.) HK16 Sold off Friday, on very heavy volume on Friday: 96.50 : -14.60 / -13.14% On very heavy volume, over 120 million shares. Sun Hung Kai Properties / HK16 ... update I think it has enough momentum to fall to the $80-90 range this week. Ideal support levels to bounce off would be the 530wk.MA near $89, or the Low of 2011 at $85.45. I will consider buying this week, as early as Monday =======

Q. on AX: "Anybody holding Sun Kai Properties this week?" I sold all my SHKP shares within a few weeks after buying them near last year's lows. (Actually, I have now sold ALL my property developer shares.) HK16 Sold off Friday, on very heavy volume on Friday: 96.50 : -14.60 / -13.14% On very heavy volume, over 120 million shares. Sun Hung Kai Properties / HK16 ... update I think it has enough momentum to fall to the $80-90 range this week. Ideal support levels to bounce off would be the 530wk.MA near $89, or the Low of 2011 at $85.45. I will consider buying this week, as early as Monday =======