drbubb

Well spotted. The rest is mere hope

You can make that case. But I see this: London property prices are massively overvalued in the face of: + Low or No growth in real incomes + Falling prices for the UK as a whole + A developing capital shortage in the UK, with a strong possibility that rates will have to rise + Some steps towards austerity, and cutting back of rental subsidies How much longer can the UK afford to prop up expensive London property?

MM, Do you know anything about the scientists he mentions? Was it in the Iranian newspapers Joseph comments on Yahweh the Two-Faced God, and the recent assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientists and the geopolitical possibilities it represents

BDEV breakout ? It will probably go a bit higher now too, like 120P : BDEV-chart

It will probably go a bit higher now too, like 120P : BDEV-chart

Cut The Bullsh/t ! That's the message in these changes. Unfortunately, Hype and Bullsh/t has been sustaining the UK property market

Mike Harris thinks the Pound Sterling will collapse within 2012 /see: Fringe Diary Dollar index /more charts: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2012/01/06/Risk_On_Dollar_Down_Right_So_What_Happened_with_NFPs.html

Cheung Kong (HK-1) and others are still in a downtrend ... update

JD, You are right about one thing: The Spring will make or break this market slide. I think the weakening of the UK economy (see Steve Keen) will pull the rug on the spring rally. But we will not know for sure until we get there THE LAST FIVE MONTHS - in 2010 prices fell a bit more than 2011 Month-: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide Hal.NSA: HNindex '10 drop Jul'10 : 236,332 : 422,248 : 133,627 / 169,347 168,331 : £168,839 Dec10 : 222,410 : 408,248 : 127,473 / 162,249 161,498 : £161,874 change: -13,912 : -14,000 : : - 6,154 / - 7,098 : - 6,833 : - £ 6,965 Pct.chg: - 5.88 % : - 3.32 % : : - 4.60% / - 4.19% : - 4.06% : - 4.13 % Annual: -14.11% : - 7.97 % : : ===================== - 9.91 % Dec-Jul: +14,187: +24,393 : : ==================== + £ 4,849 '11 drop Jul'11 : 236,597 : 432,641 : 129,766 / 168,731 164,714 : £166,723 Dec11 : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx / 163,822 157,803 : £160,813 change : -10,831 : + 2,230 : - X, XXX / - 4,909 : - 6,911 : - £ 5,910 Pct.chg: - 4.58 % : +0.51 % : : - 4.XX% / - 2.91% : - 4.20% : - 3.54 % Annual: -10.99% : +1.22 % : : ====================== - 8.50 %

JD, You are right about one thing: The Spring will make or break this market slide. I think the weakening of the UK economy (see Steve Keen) will pull the rug on the spring rally. But we will not know for sure until we get there THE LAST FIVE MONTHS - in 2010 prices fell a bit more than 2011 Month-: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide Hal.NSA: HNindex '10 drop Jul'10 : 236,332 : 422,248 : 133,627 / 169,347 168,331 : £168,839 Dec10 : 222,410 : 408,248 : 127,473 / 162,249 161,498 : £161,874 change: -13,912 : -14,000 : : - 6,154 / - 7,098 : - 6,833 : - £ 6,965 Pct.chg: - 5.88 % : - 3.32 % : : - 4.60% / - 4.19% : - 4.06% : - 4.13 % Annual: -14.11% : - 7.97 % : : ===================== - 9.91 % Dec-Jul: +14,187: +24,393 : : ==================== + £ 4,849 '11 drop Jul'11 : 236,597 : 432,641 : 129,766 / 168,731 164,714 : £166,723 Dec11 : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx / 163,822 157,803 : £160,813 change : -10,831 : + 2,230 : - X, XXX / - 4,909 : - 6,911 : - £ 5,910 Pct.chg: - 4.58 % : +0.51 % : : - 4.XX% / - 2.91% : - 4.20% : - 3.54 % Annual: -10.99% : +1.22 % : : ====================== - 8.50 %

Gravity has taken over, winning out over hype

Halifax has been very weak. Only two months (back in early 2009) were lower than the Dec.2011 figure.

Seasonally Adjusted? (Anyway, at -0.6%, that's Crash Cruise speed range) What do you suppose the NSA change is? The answer may surprise you... Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% : D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% : ======================================== mom: -2.75% : -2.22 % : -Est.DI : 138.3% / - 1.19% = n/a = : -1.03% : -1.86% : - 1.52% -1.86% = That's 3X the SA figure ! This sucker's coming Dooown !

Seasonally Adjusted? (Anyway, at -0.6%, that's Crash Cruise speed range) What do you suppose the NSA change is? The answer may surprise you... Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx N : : 232,144 : 444,724 : 124,083 -2.49% / 165,798 = n/a = 161,731 160,801 : £163,300 : - 1.02% :142.2% : D : : 225,766 : 434,871 : 12X,xxx - X.xx% / 163,822 = n/a = 160,063 157,803 : £160,813 : - 1.52% :140.4% : ======================================== mom: -2.75% : -2.22 % : -Est.DI : 138.3% / - 1.19% = n/a = : -1.03% : -1.86% : - 1.52% -1.86% = That's 3X the SA figure ! This sucker's coming Dooown !

Jake, I don't think you get my idea... The sort of place we are looking for is not one you can just "buy your way into." It would be a place where we can make a contribution to improve the life of those in the community. And find a place like that where we can contribute, and which also meets our other major requirements is not an trivial challenge. Whether the tsunamis come or not, the move must make sense. I don't want to feel like I am betting on a tsunami. I want to live in a place that we are drawn to for other reason. We will not be running away if we leave HK. We will be running to (a new destination.) In fact, one thing we are exploring now, is whether we can contribute to building the sort of community we seek where we are, here in HK. The first step in that process is seeking to join or develop a community of like-miden individuals. We will begin the first steps in testing this community building this weekend. I want to encourage others here to think the same way. Look for ways to invest in the community of people arouind you. In the long run, that may be a far better investment than plowing your money into B&H Gold investments. And, sure, time is money. So much of your investment might be time, rather than money.

You are getting to the reason I do it. A successful professional trader can have enormous control over his time, and through that enjoy much freedom. That is exactly why my partner is also trying to make a go of trading. We want to be free to travel, and make an income while seeing the world. ( And I do not want her to be fully dependent on my own success, since if she was- she would not have full freedom.)

Why? I think all professions require: commitment, discipline and dedication. I wouldn't try to be a farmer or a doctor whilst being a professional trader, and maybe trying to be a professional trader while being in one of those professions would be a mistake too. Most farmers and doctors rarely give away for free the fruits of their efforts, so maybe if I continued to do so in those professions, then I would starve.

Surely, that is not the point. I am talking about myths I want to explode. I am a professional investor, and BBH is only a small part* of what I do. My point is about whether it is possible to Beat B&H consistently. Over many months, I have demonstrated that it is possible. If what you are saying is: "It isn't easy to beat B&H. It requires time, discipline, and dedication." Then, I would say that I agree completely. It is only a myth (spread by those who might benefit from getting you to become a long term holder of gold) that you cannot beat B&H through trading. Once you realise it can be done, you can begin to consider whether or not you are willing to devote the effort needed to do it yourself. ==== ==== *Right now, I am researching investments Junior miners and explorers, analysizing the technical situation of the overall market, and developing a market neutral trading strategy, while pondering various big picture scenarios in our world involving future developments. The effort of Beat B&H is only a small part of my research activities. On some days I do nothing, or very little. So I consider that effort a sideshow, not the main show. But I know many posting here are interested in it, so I keep the trading and posting alive. And by doing it, I have learned some useful things about how to trade with such an objective.

It is easy to ridicule Wilcock and Fulford's argument, except + The lawsuit of Keenan's is reportedly headed to an out-of-court settlement. Why? + Thunder Road also comes up with a large number near 2Mn MT using an unrelated process So the ridicule bears no force, if you keep an open mind. The close-minded here have missed so many opportunities (like trading and learning opportunities)*, and I reckon they will be blind-sided in a major way by their enthusiasm to believe the wild ideas of the Bill Murphy's of the world, which have less credibility than some BF/DW ideas *As shown in the statment: "You cannot beat B&H": what utter nonsense that has proven to be!

Bridgewater Takes Grim View of 2012 Robert Prince, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater, and his managers at the world's biggest hedge fund firm are preparing for at least a decade of slow growth and high unemployment for the big developed economies. Mr. Prince describes those economies—the U.S. and Europe, in particular—as "zombies" and says they will remain that way until they work through their mountains of debt. Ten years of a zombie economy? "What you have is a picture of broken economic systems that are operating on life support," Mr. Prince says. "We're in a secular deleveraging that will probably take 15 to 20 years to work through and we're just four years in." In Europe, "the debt crisis is [a] long ways from over," he says. The economic and financial morass will mean interest rates in the U.S. and Europe will essentially be locked at zero for years. In this bleak environment, Mr. Prince says stocks remain vulnerable to "air pockets" from shocks, such as bad news out of Europe. But for longer-term investors looking out over the next decade, he says, equities may be a good buy. There is even money to be made in U.S. Treasurys, despite interest rates near record lows, and gold is likely to resume its climb as central banks print money to bolster their economies. Mr. Prince says. The views of Bridgewater are keenly watched by other investors, given the firm's elevated status in the competitive world of hedge-fund investing. . . . In 2011, it profited from owning gold, but cut back on that position during the third quarter. It correctly pivoted from being bearish on U.S. Treasurys early in the year to positioning for a rally. It also benefited from rallies in core European bond markets and avoided ugly losses sustained by other macro funds that had bet the euro would fall against the dollar. Instead, it rightly bet that the euro would fall against the Japanese yen. . . . In the U.S., leveraged investors who can borrow money at rates near zero could find a good deal in Treasurys, Mr. Prince says. Mr. Prince points to the example of Japanese government bonds. An investor who was leveraged three-to-one and bought Japan's bonds at a 2.5% yield in the mid 1990s would have earned a compound average annual return of 12% a year for 15 years, he says. Meanwhile, gold prices should resume a rally amid continued printing of money by the Fed and other central banks, Mr. Prince says. Those efforts effectively devalue those countries' currencies compared with gold. Mr. Prince also thinks stocks are attractive from a long-term perspective, especially compared with bonds or cash. Broadly, discounted earnings-growth rates, which reflect the expectations about future earnings implied by current prices, are negative, he says. A moribund economic outlook "is pretty priced in right now," he says. "If we have a long, drawn out deleveraging process without substantial air pockets, chances are equities are a pretty good bet, ironically." /more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204368104577136531481564726.html

If the money was well-spent (which is a big "if) - then many would pay the tax. That would require some huge spending cuts, and a strong selling effort by the President. (Obama could never pull it off- no one would believe him. Romney might get away with a 10% one-off wealth tax, if combined with deep cuts - 20-30%? in government entitlements.)

"How much was mined... where and when?" I don't think that works. If you pick up a bar randomly, it will be very hard to know where it comes from, and when it was mined. Also, I think you will find that all the most "interesting" gold will remain secret and hidden. There are some examples of statistical techniques used in mainstream estimates on my Fringe thread: But I think these estimates are full of holes, as the Thunder Road paper has pointed out.

You can do that going back a few decades, but not centuries. To get a useful answer you would need information from organisations like: The Vatican, The Templars, very wealthy families... and there may be organisations outside the WEst that you have never heard of that hold gold. The mainstream solution has been to ignore what is not easily counted.

Thanks for the link. I liked this part: "One of 3 things will have to happen: + a global debt restructuring/repudiation; + global hyperinflation to inflate away this debt, or + a one-time financial tax on all individuals amounting to roughly 30% of all wealth. That's pretty much it, at least according to mathematics That last one is a little-mentioned possibility. The rich whine about paying higher taxes on income, but a one-off wealth tax might be a great way to handle part of the deficit. It could also be done by forcing wealth people to buy zero coupon bonds, which would not pay any interest until taxes balance spending. And of course, some combination of those, together with spending cuts might work. No wonder the article is entitled: "Bearish For 2012 Through 2028, And Is Long Gold" "The Federal Reserve will need to do more quantitative easing—buying of government bonds—but Mr. Prince says the purchases will probably be sporadic. Gold prices should resume a rally amid continued printing of money by the Fed and other central banks, Mr. Prince says. Those efforts effectively devalue those countries' currencies compared with gold." ...Across the Atlantic: "You've got insolvent banks supporting insolvent sovereigns and insolvent sovereigns supporting insolvent banks," he says.

The mainstream estimates of Gold at 170,000 MT are way too low. Everyone in the industry knows the official Gold production figures are too low, especially for countries like Mongolia which have plenty of gold, and a high government royalty. And as the Thunder Road report states Gold was much easier to find and mine in historical times. I find it possible to believe that there are vast quantities of "secret" gold held from Medieval times and some of the sources I found about this are on a thread in the Fringe section, which I started well before the lawsuit was out: Tracking the Missing Gold: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15617 It is the second time I have looked into this, and I could give you links into an earlier thread too.