drbubb

That's true. Especially in London. But now we may now get a fall that cannot be stopped thru ZIRP, as would-be buyers find that their incomes cannot stretch to pay high prices, when banks are looking at what is happening to their loans to the Builder sector, and the decide they want to tighten their property lending criteria even more. BTW, I don't think lending has been tight the last 2-3 years. It has merely been somewhere near what should be normal. From here, we can move to tight.

That is possible, but far from likely in my view. I think a Dollar short squeeze starting within a week is at least as likely (though every Gold bug in the world would laugh at the notion.) Just look at how "experts" like Billy Gross got the bond market wrong - in the same way many experts may find they got the dollar wrong too. TLT chart ... update xx Bond King Bill Gross Exits US Debt: Good News? Posted by STEPHEN GANDEL Thursday, March 10, 2011 US debt may no longer be a good investment, at least for now. And that might be the good news. Famed investor Bill Gross, who runs the PIMCO Total Return Fund, recently sold all of the US Treasury bonds is his fund's portfolio. It's a huge move for the manager of the world's largest bond fund. As recently as June 2010, Gross' fund held nearly $150 billion in US bonds. That amount has now been slashed to zero. But while the action will certainly be fodder for the crowd that thinks America is bankrupt, Gross' moves may actually be another sign that the US economy is improving. Here's why: First of all, Gross didn't sell all of his US Treasury bonds because he is worried that the US won't be able to pay its debts. In a CNBC appearance on Thursday afternoon, Gross said credit wasn't an issue for him. And in fact, Gross hasn't sold all of his US debt holdings. He still owns Treasuries that mature in less than a year, which are technically called notes or bills, not bonds. Gross sold because he thinks the price of US Treasury bonds are as high as they can go for now, and will fall. Read more: http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/03/10/the-worlds-largest-bond-fund-gets-out-of-us-debt-good-news/#ixzz1U6SkDb00 == == == I wonder what Gross is thinking after the huge jump in Bonds this month? It is ... (you guessed it) ... a short squeeze And Mr Gross was short

There's nothing "typical" about that GLD volume

Now that Gold has been "topped", what's next? How about a nice short squeeze in the US dollar?

GOLD AND SILVER - Done for awhile? I got Bearish earlier today, when I saw Gold was up DESPITE: + Oil being down almost 1.5% + The US Dollar being up over 1% The move in precious metals looked like an anomoly, and hence highly vulnerable The MOVE DOWN in Gold and Silver looks like an important TURNING POINT to the downside Because of the HEAVY VOLUME --- see: SLV chart : GLD chart

The Carnage continues... : BDEV-intraday The elephant-in-the-room (Inflated prices) may soon be on the prowl. BDEV : 87.45 / Change: -3.70 // Percent Change: -4.06% Open: 92.70 / High: 92.80 / Low: 87.00 // Volume:4,332,997 I wonder if the reckless folks who bought homes recently, understand that their housing dreams may be eviscerated - in the sense that they may soon slide into Negative Equity. Where are the other warnings coming from now ??* Are we headed for a big August or September surprise in the UK housing indices? Why are so few now talking about that (strong?) possibility? == == == *we did get warnings back in 2007: House price crash warning on 6th December 2007 The housing market may be heading for a sharp fall, a leading expert will warn today. Economist David Miles says property prices will probably drop dramatically in the next few years. The collapse will come when the rapid rise in prices starts to tail off, according to Mr Miles, who is a former adviser to Gordon Brown. Demand has been heavily influenced by the expectation that prices will continue to rise quickly. When the big annual rises fail to materialise, 'significant' falls are likely. 'A sharp fall in real house prices is likely at some point in the relatively near future, though it could yet be one to two years away,' his report concludes. Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-1604590/House-price-crash-warning.html#ixzz1U3lMbplo

Sure. Even if I had had no debt, the speed of the property price fall in Hong Kong would have caused me to lose sleep. Over 25 weeks or so, it fell at over 1% a week (on average). That's "crash cruise speed" on steroids.

I bought 10... 10 apartments in Hong Kong, after having sold one property in London, and in the interim - invested in gold shares

As society begins to unravel, and the tax and spend institutions fade, people will find they will need their local community more... and the value of those community connections will become more clear Gold is not the ultimate "safe haven" investment. Community is.

From what I have seen, there are some good ideas there - But I am wondering if there are proprietary, unique, and patent-able parts of the idea? Obviously, you want to be careful whom you show those elements to - and especially the detail. But I think you know that potential investors will want to see a USP - Unique Selling Proposition, which will make your ideas stand out amongst all the other electric car related ideas that are making the rounds these days.

The selling continues... BDEV-chart UK:BDEV - Barratt Developments PLC 8/3/2011 08:28 AM 90.30 Change: -2.35 Open: 91.90 / High: 92.00 / Low: 90.05 // Volume: 376,087 Percent Change: -2.54% Did anyone else see the CEO of Taylor Woodrow on Bloomberg spinning for his life. The company reported a Loss, and he said Bloomberg had its numbers wrong, and proceeded to talk about operating profits, rather than the bottom line. My impression was this was a cheap trick, coming from a "cheap trick company."

A Walkable Community Property Price Index for the US ? That's an interesting idea - I suppose one could compare the Most Walkable with Least Walkable communities I agree. I should make sense to stay away from Tokyo, and and maybe focus your life on the "most stable" parts of Japan, which may be to the North and to the West, I suppose. Have you found a map for Japan for the Post upheaval period, as may be produced by various psychics? I haven't spoken with Chris recently, but I see that "Christopher Dillon" gives a thumbs up on that Facebook page you linked too. Perhaps you should be-friend him on Facebook, and pass on my regards. Then you might introduce yourself as a GEI member.

Yeah. But the average homes is so much BIGGER. It becomes a magnet for buying all sorts of consumer junk, that the homeowner doesn't really need. Will people's standard of living improve or diminish if they live in smaller homes closer to the city, and wind up driving a good deal less? I reckon it will improve, as people shift their aspirations to things like community, cooking better food, and growing organic vegetables in small "victory gardens".

It is CLEAR now...

marceau, on 02 August 2011 - said: Last time I looked it was an utter dog of a company. What did they do with all that debt in the end? They must have done something or they wouldn't even be around. (Barratt is an ugly dog, even if they try to dress it up- DrB) Their reported book value was also dependent on some highly optimistic valuations.. The time to become a contrarian buyer is when the selling volume is dwindling, but the price is still low. Then you have a better chance of owning it ... when the force is with you. BDEV isnt at that point yet. Meantime, we have seen property prices trade up on light volume, and we know there is now a huge overhang relative to property buying demand. That's the sort of time you want to be a seller, or at least avoid buying.

CHEAP PROPERTY? UK property may look cheap relative to gold, but it looks expensive relative to income. So unless your income is in Gold, property owners still have a problem

No. I think it is too soon to start talking about Lows in UK prices, even outside London. I can easily see Rest-of-UK falling to and below GBP 100,000 The Foreign FOOLS will stop buying in London at some point, and you will see them turn net sellers of their new properties when they realise they have made a mistake in overpaying.

UK PROPERTY WARNING - Don't Buy Now ! The Chart on the right certainly looks like the Rally in Outside-London price index is about ready to die - right on the 12 months MA, which has historically acted as support. Yes. We are now at a critical resistance level (!) The Dead Cat bounce looks very tired, especially outside London. If the Rest-of-UK Index fails to push through the 12 months MA... Month: H&Nindex : RestOfUK : 12mosMA May= : £164,776 : £128,189 : £129,860 June :: £165,924 : £128,986 : £129,414 July= : ? ? ? ...Then I think the whole ediface of UK property prices may come tumbling down. And that may begin within the next few weeks. BDEV is also flashing its own warnings, having fallen below support at 100p.

AND the US is well down the road in getting through its housing crash So is "the rest of the UK" btw But Greater London hasn't even started to face the crisis of Falling Property prices yet

OUTSIDE LONDON PRICES - see below ======= I want to REPLACE THE HOMETRACK house price column (third from the left) ... ... with my own calculation of "outside London" prices CHART How is my calculation of "outside London prices" done ? I assume that there are 25 million homes in all of Britain, and only 3 million homes in London - that's 12% of the total. I then multiply the 25 Million x the average price (per the H&N index) and then subtract 3 million x the Rightmove asking price for London = this leaves me the notional value of the 22 million homes in the rest of the UK. How is my calculation of "outside London prices" done ? I assume that there are 25 million homes in all of Britain, and only 3 million homes in London - that's 12% of the total. I then multiply the 25 Million x the average price (per the H&N index) and then subtract 3 million x the Rightmove asking price for London = this leaves me the notional value of the 22 million homes in the rest of the UK. Example (as of June 2011): ====== 25 million x £165,924 = £4.148 Trillion -3 million x £438,622 = £1.316 Trillion 22 million x ?XXX,XXX = £2.832 Trillion = = £128,727

BDEV as a bellwether - has last week broken support at 100p Why the UK House price slide could begin to get serious soon (ie return to Crash Cruise speed) + "NHS Cuts to start in earnest" + "Hsbc To Cut 10,000 Jobs On Monday" + "50,000 Protest Soaring Housing Prices" (ie govt action: propping up housing is no longer so politically acceptable) Well, that's based upon the titles of threads on HPC, which is not the most reliable indicator, since the last headline for example relates to a Protest in Tel Aviv (!) But there is no doubt that many in the UK will share that protest sentiment

Looking back, to look forward BACK Forward? from the interview: http://kiprushov.wordpress.com/2011/01/29/an-interview-with-glenn-neely-founder-neowave-institute/ Question: Can you share trading advice for this unpredictable time? How do we make money during the next four to six years? Glenn Neely: This Unpredictable phase does make trading far more dangerous. As the market moves toward the center formation, our focus has to shift away from dependability on Wave structure and Wave patterns that you would expect to occur. Now, trading strategies must be based on bottom-line-oriented capital management strategies. Traders and investors need to look to market trading strategies that are outside the realm of Wave Theory. The best way to deal with unpredictable stock markets is to use what I call second-tier technologies: strategies for trading, risk management, and capital management that are independent of Wave Theory. Clearly, when the stock market is harder to predict, it’s harder to trade. Therefore, you need to be much more careful about risk management and protecting your capital. You need to minimize risk and maximize potential. In this unpredictable environment, you need to reduce the emphasis on predicting the stock market and place the emphasis on careful, strategic trading and on strategies to preserve capital. /interview : http://www.neowave.com/company-nov2010interview.asp

Yep ! Might be a good idea. Especially, if you can buy a home with profits, and hold onto core capital

LOL I think he reckons he will live forever. Perhaps he plans to "extend his time" through some strange Cryogenic process. http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15122

Harry Dent's Forecast on GSR (about half-way in) MP3: http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2011/07.29.2011//GSR-07.29.11-cc.mp3 "I think they are going down to where the bubble started... that's 55 percent down from the top, another 30 percent from where they are now." "I think they will go down, and not bounce back." Chris Walcek: "Charles Hugh Smith is looking for a deeper correction... of a fibonacci 62% down from the top." Harry Dent: "I agree with Smith. Our actual forecast is 55 to 65% down." "They may come back slowly, from a low in 2015, but will not bounceback strongly for another decade or so." "High end homes have nowhere to go."