drbubb

Why not? You might want to first checkout several of the existing Diaries, to see what sorts of discussions and comments have been posted already

There must be a demographic reason for that discrepancy

I have been nibbling. But not buying aggressively yet. I do think lower low lie ahead for both Silver and Gold.

Certainly, some do that - Just listen to the call-ins on various podcasts. That doesn't mean the GEI members do - or should !

Have you missed the relevant thread in the FRINGE section ?: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14809

I think there are some months that I live on LESS THAN THAT here in Hong Kong. How? I own my property, and the management cost of about Pds 150 / month as split with my partner, who has a real job. Your "Monthly Bus pass" of GBP 55 is about HK$600, which gets me 30 round trips to Central by MTR. That's not far from my actual transport in some months. Other travel from me in HK may mean walking. But there are other months where I "splash out" and spend way more than that, but I wanted to illustrate that in a city unburdened by excessive transport costs, and excessive taxation, you can live reasonably well, without spending a lot. HK is a cheap place to live, once you sort out your housing.

YET (it may be cruel to speak the truth here): YOUR TAXES are at work, providing incentive to EXPAND the size of this population (that you want kept away.) The more reckless breeding like this, the more likely you will find "them" as your neighbors. My solution of REMOVING THE INCENTIVE is the least cruel genuine remedy.

BARRATT / BDEV is vulnerable ... update ... as is the UK Property market

BARRATT / BDEV is vulnerable ... update ... as is the UK Property market

interesting

A thread from HPC has a chart of the Delusion Index: /source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=120428&st=75 But they use Nationwide alone, instead of The average of H&N Using H&N (non-seasonally adjusted), the latest figure is ABOVE any month in 2009. But it compares May Rightmove with the latest H&N index (which is April.) If the May H&N index falls, then the May Delusion index will be even more extreme ! Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th? 2009 J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 158,200 - 1.0% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6% F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 157,000 - 0.8% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 156,100* -0.6% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6% A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 155,600* -0.3% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7% M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 155,600*+0.0% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5% J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 155,650 +X.X% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7% Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 155,650 +X.X% / 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6% A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 155,806 +0.1% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3% S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 156,118 +0.2% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1% O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,430 +0.2% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM HIGH N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 156,743 +0.2% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9% D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 156,900*+0.1% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5% Maybe someone should post this on HPC. I do think the H&N averages are more accurate.

A thread from HPC has a chart of the Delusion Index: /source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=120428&st=75 But they use Nationwide alone, instead of The average of H&N Using H&N (non-seasonally adjusted), the latest figure is ABOVE any month in 2009. But it compares May Rightmove with the latest H&N index (which is April.) If the May H&N index falls, then the May Delusion index will be even more extreme ! Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th? 2009 J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 158,200 - 1.0% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6% F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 157,000 - 0.8% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 156,100* -0.6% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6% A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 155,600* -0.3% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7% M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 155,600*+0.0% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5% J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 155,650 +X.X% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7% Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 155,650 +X.X% / 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6% A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 155,806 +0.1% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3% S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 156,118 +0.2% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1% O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,430 +0.2% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+2.44% :140.6% : RM HIGH N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 156,743 +0.2% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9% D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 156,900*+0.1% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5% Maybe someone should post this on HPC. I do think the H&N averages are more accurate.

The problem is... The Western "solution" to providing for Single Moms & their families is spawning MORE OF SAME. The UK seems to have this problem in overdrive compared to the USA or France, and I think the reason is that they are far too generous in handing out these benefits. To me, it is crystal clear, and needs no debate. But others may not see it that way... "Is the goal of life simply financial rewards for being a hard working goody goody?" No. Is the goal of life simply handing out benefits to whomever may want them, without regard to intrinsic fairness to all, including those who pay for them? I want to live in a fair, just, and moral society. The UK has plenty of room for improvement, and HK has some too.

Makes sense. Again, the idea should be to "remove the career option"

Even the EA's are now talking about the impact of Housing Benefit caps... The changes to Local Housing Allowance came into force on April 1st and will affect any new tenancy. However, they could also have a wider impact on the London buy-to-let market. The new maximum weekly rates for Local Housing Allowance are: • £250 for a one bedroom property • £290 for a two bedroom property • £340 for a three bedroom property • £400 for a four bedroom property The carrot for landlords who reduce their rent so that a benefit claimant can stay as a tenant is to have their rent paid directly by the local authority for two years. But such a small carrot means that the reduction to housing benefit is likely to encourage landlords who currently let to benefit claimants to look for private tenants instead. That could have a significant impact on rents in the private rental sector. If more landlords do decide to switch to private tenants as a result of the change, that will increase the supply of rental properties at the lower end of the market, pushing down rents. Downward pressure on rents could even ripple through the market to more expensive properties. /source: http://www.ludlowthompson.com/property_news/New_rules_on_housing_benefit_what_do_London_landlords_need_to_know/article.htm?id=953

That might work. But I think you need to stop giving such tempting incentives (free flats) to young girls having children out of wedlock. o o o (we can get the state to pay) Why work hard to pay rising rents when the state-will-provide living for free? And BTW, the availability of all those housing subsidies is pushing up rents and house prices for those who are not grabbing the freebies. They provide a strong an non-commercial "bid in the market" whilst soaking up supply. Are orphanages really such a bad idea? In Hong Kong, there are few single moms because of the "loss of face" that the mother would go through in raising a child that way. We almost rented one of our flats to a single mom, and then I saw through the elaborate lie that I was being told about why the father was not there. In the UK, there needs to be a sea change in attitudes if you want to stop those third generation dependents from growing so fast in numbers. It is really not, an acceptable "career choice" to have children to be looked after at state expense. Not if you want a society that has fewer future criminals being incubated. Dealing drugs seems to be one of the few ways to fortune on those estates in the UK. And because it is lucrative for the pushers, it spreads like wildfire.

"not available in your area" unfortunately New BBC documentary The Scheme offers controversial look at life on Scottish housing estate May 18 2010 By Brian McIver and Gayle Ritchie A FAMILY lose a son to prison, while another faces death threats from dealers he shortchanged - and cops want to talk to him about a smashed car. Down the street, a pregnant teenager is recovering after her boyfriend kneed her in the stomach during a domestic. The shocking events are at the heart of a controversial Scottish television programme, but it's not fiction. In fact, it's just another day in the life of the locals from the Onthank housing estate in Kilmarnock. TV cameras uncovered these shocking stories when they spent a year following six families for The Scheme, which starts on BBC1 Scotland tonight. The programme, which features violence and apparent drug-taking in the opening credits, lifts the lid on life on the estate in four episodes. QUESTION: ========= I live a very short walk from equivalent areas in HK. The government here SPENDS LESS money on the people who live in those estates, than the UK government spends on people living in its estates. Yet they are very safe, and even a "foreign devil" like me can safely walk through those estates, even late at night. (in fact, some of the people who live there WORK at low wages all around me, as gardeners, cleaners, receptionists, and in other jobs. They are hard working and polite, and would not even think about living on handouts.) Why? What does HK do right, that the UK does wrong? Is "The government here SPENDS LESS money on the people who live in those estates" part of the answer. (IE: they may almost starve if they don't work. But actually: they won't starve because there are various forms of help to those who really need it, including charity, but dependency is a pretty poor career in HK.) Tough love works ! Try it

Yeah, a bounce might happen too. I just doubt it somehow. Did you see the comments on the article, and also on the HPC thread? Mine were more restrained than others. She is at least trying to make a go of the situation she is in, while other might just declare bankruptcy and become wards of the state. But what I don't like is the sense that when something goes wrong, the state or someone else has to remedy the situation, rather than the person who was directly involved, and seems most responsible. What is "The Scheme" btw?

Useful chart / suggests possible cliff's edge ahead: /source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152362&st=165

SHIT HAPPENS - Especially to those who cannot control after their sexual urges A Sad story, but I wonder how much of the money will go those those who are "truly innocent" and she put out of work? == == == Single mum launches £40k internet campaign to stop eviction By Jenny Amphlett Jenny.Amphlett@Thesentinel.Co.Uk SINGLE mother-of-one Samantha Wilkes has launched an internet campaign to raise £40,000 to prevent her being made homeless with her four-week-old baby. The 39-year-old needs the money by the end of July to stop NatWest repossessing her Trentham home. But Samantha, who fell into debt after her furniture business collapsed last year, is living on £65-a-week income support. Now she is urging people to support her £10 sponsor-a-brick campaign to help reach the £40,000 total. Samantha, who gave birth to son, Shiron, on April 18, said: "I am crying all the time. The whole situation rips me up. "Every day I look at Shiron and wonder how am I going to give him a good future." Samantha bought her 109-year-old Earls Road home for £170,000 five years ago. She took out a £77,000 mortgage and used cash from the sale of her previous home to pay for the three-bedroom property. At the same time Samantha took out a £100,000 loan on her Stone-based Charnwood Furniture business and secured it on her home. But the firm was hit by the recession and Samantha had to make 10 staff, including her sister, redundant before shutting the business. Now Samantha, who pays £300-a-month on her mortgage and has £40,000 of the business loan still to pay, says the value of her home has plummeted to £110,000. /more: http://www.thisisstaffordshire.co.uk/news/NEED-163-40k-SAVE-HOUSE/article-3563338-detail/article.html

Bob, I cannot see any evidence for a "bottom". Indeed, I think it looks as if Buyers are deserting the market (apart from the total FOOLS from places like Hong Kong who are determined to throw their money away on overpriced new London properties). The following figures might put the unhealthy balance into perspective. UK ASKING PRICES - at ABSURD levels : 145%+ is the highest on record Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% : A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 + 0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% : M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : ===================================== mom : + 1.3% : -0.02% : Est.DI: 145.7% / + 0.52% : = n/a = : - 1.55% : +0.09% : + 0.31% What are the vendors smoking? Even Miles Shipside mentions the unlikelihood of these prices "sticking": Shipside adds: “The increase in agents’ property stock levels combined with a reduction in the number of properties coming to market suggests that the number of buyers has fallen even faster than the number of sellers, and transaction volumes will therefore remain low as we move into the traditional summer slowdown. Estate agents usually see their stock turnover more quickly during the spring, but this year’s slower market suggests that stock levels may exceed Rightmove’s previous record of 79 properties per branch over the next few months. /more: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2011/05/may-2011.pdf == == == Useful chart / suggests possible cliff's edge ahead: /source: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152362&st=165

From the Property Diary in GPC: Bob, I cannot see any evidence for a "bottom". Indeed, I think it looks as if Buyers are deserting the market (apart from the total FOOLS from places like Hong Kong who are determined to throw their money away on overpriced new London properties). The following figures might put the unhealthy balance into perspective. UK ASKING PRICES - at ABSURD levels : 145%+ is the highest on record Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% : A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 + 0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% : M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : ===================================== mom : + 1.3% : -0.02% : Est.DI: 145.7% / + 0.52% : = n/a = : - 1.55% : +0.09% : + 0.31% What are the vendors smoking? Even Miles Shipside mentions the unlikelihood of these prices "sticking": Shipside adds: “The increase in agents’ property stock levels combined with a reduction in the number of properties coming to market suggests that the number of buyers has fallen even faster than the number of sellers, and transaction volumes will therefore remain low as we move into the traditional summer slowdown. Estate agents usually see their stock turnover more quickly during the spring, but this year’s slower market suggests that stock levels may exceed Rightmove’s previous record of 79 properties per branch over the next few months. /more: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2011/05/may-2011.pdf

The "spinoff idea" is working... Spin-off done now. My cost was $0.16 - 0.17, and I have Int't Lithium shares worth about 6 cents. How has TNR fared on the day the spinoff became effective? TNR : 0.155 Change: -0.055 // Percent Change: -26.19% Open: 0.185 High: 0.185 Low: 0.15 // Volume: 121,000 Cost : 0.165 // Value : 0.155 + 0.06 = 0.215 / that's + 30.3% And in a market where many mining shares are getting clobbered So I call it: "vary successful" And there' could be another spinoff in TNR's future, I believe.

Looks like the spinoff may be done today / stock down 4 cents May 12, 2011 International Lithium Spin-out Record Date Set Vancouver B.C.: TNR Gold Corp. ("TNR") and wholly-owned International Lithium Corp. ("ILC") (jointly the "Company") are pleased to announce the TSX Venture Exchange has approved the Company's Plan of Arrangement involving the spin-out of TNR's lithium and rare metals property interests into a separate public company, ILC. The Plan of Arrangement will close and be given effect on May 19, 2011 (the "Record Date") [Note 1]. Key Highlights: · TSX Venture Exchange approves the Company's Plan of Arrangement, ILC spin-out; · Sets Record Date / Effective Date for May 19, 2011; · May 16, 2011 is the last Trading Day whereby eligible TNR Shareholders at the close of market will receive the ILC Unit distribution in accordance with the terms of the Plan of Arrangement [Note 1]; · ILC financing will close concurrently with Plan of Arrangement; and · Strategic Relationship with Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. solidifies as Plan of Arrangement approaches completion. /more: http://www.tnrgoldcorp.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=456784

That may be true. But the more "they" make, the more taxes the rest of us must pay, to keep "them" ahead of inflation. So pay rises in the public sector may mean lower after-tax incomes for those in the private sector. The share of the pie going to the private sector gets smaller.