drbubb

I hope you do not mind me jumping in here, Ace and Charlie. I think this might go some of the way in answering the question. There was an interesting interview this weekend by Jim Puplava with a professional trader: Peter L Brandt, Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader MP3 : http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0413-1.mp3 One interesting point that he made was: He only expects to make money on 30-40% of his trades. "My job is risk management: Cutting off the losses on the trades that are not working. ... I sell when they 'turn red' and let the profits take care of themselves." (I know what he means: Many of my trades use options, and the structure of options limits my losses. When it comes to trading juniors: I am to "get bulletproof" on my trades as soon as possible, and then ride the potential gains, using my profits and warrants to "stay long" with limited risk. And it helps greatly to be in a long term Bull Trend.) Here are two more questions for Charlie: =========================== A/ Do you see any advantages or disadvantages in trading in the UK market in comparison with other markets, such as the US, Canada, or Hong kong - for example ? B/ Once enough people have bought the book and read it, do you think you might be able to accept QUESTIONS here for any of the individuals who were profiled in the book?

I think it is pretty clear that many views on GEI are "non-mainstream." But I cannot see any point in embracing views, just because they are unpopular. I suppose the point is to find opportunities to BUY, that are cheap because they are unpopular, and that the reasons for the unpopularity are fading, or becoming less relevant.

This is from the first page of: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap , where I RE-WROTE THE DESCRIPTION IN THE HEADER... Barratt / BDEV.L ... update : Longer Term : Last 12 months : 6 mos BDEV has given us excellent early warnings of TURNS in UK house prices. From a low in July 2008 (at 22p), Barratt/BDEV had a long rally into a Sept. 2009 high at 280p. We noticed a key point in the rally, and in early April 2009, predicted a 12 months "Dead Cat bounce" in UK property prices, and that duly arrived. We watched BDEV for a sign that the house price rally was petering out. And from Sept. 2009 and the 280p peak (184p, on a split-adjusted basis), BDEV began to fall. This drop in the share preceded a fall in actual house prices, as measured by various property indices. A key point in the decline, was when BDEV slid back below its 250 day/1 year moving average. That occurred in Feb 2010. Within a few weeks, in Spring 2010 a second downleg in UK property prices began. And it was clearly reflected in the H&Nindex (the average of the non-seassonally adjusted Halifax & Nationwide indicies), which peaked in April 2010 at £169,287. The new slide in UK prices came despite continued ultra-low interest rates. BDEV continued to fall for most of 2010, but the rate of decline slowed and the stock bottomed in late Nov.2010 at near 71p, which was well above the Nov 2009 low of 31p. Then, a year-end rally in BDEV stock began, taking BDEV back near 90p by the end of 2010. We watched to see if the bounce in stocks was going to be strong enough to push back above the 250d/1 year MA, and if that occurred, if there would be a reverse the downturn in UK property prices. In early 2011, Homebuilder prices rose further. BDEV rose above 110p, and pushed beyond the 250d MA, suggesting a Spring 2011 "PAUSE" in the decline in UK-wide home prices. Will the house price rally last? I think not. The failure of the Homebuilder rally and a drop in BDEV back below 100p on high volume (If we see that), would be a sign that Crash Cruise Speed (with falls averaging more than 0.5% per month), is likely to resume. I still expect a long slide in UK House prices into 2012/13 or later. Next Buy signal would be: after the Builder shares break up above key resistance levels on high volume.

This is from the first page of: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap , where I RE-WROTE THE DESCRIPTION IN THE HEADER... Barratt closer / BDEV.L ... update : Longer Term : Last 12 months : 6 mos BDEV has given us excellent early warnings of TURNS in UK house prices. From a low in July 2008 (at 22p), Barratt/BDEV had a long rally into a Sept. 2009 high at 280p. We noticed a key point in the rally, and in early April 2009, predicted a 12 months "Dead Cat bounce" in UK property prices, and that duly arrived. We watched BDEV for a sign that the house price rally was petering out. And from Sept. 2009 and the 280p peak (184p, on a split-adjusted basis), BDEV began to fall. This drop in the share preceded a fall in actual house prices, as measured by various property indices. A key point in the decline, was when BDEV slid back below its 250 day/1 year moving average. That occurred in Feb 2010. Within a few weeks, in Spring 2010 a second downleg in UK property prices began. And it was clearly reflected in the H&Nindex (the average of the non-seassonally adjusted Halifax & Nationwide indicies), which peaked in April 2010 at £169,287. The new slide in UK prices came despite continued ultra-low interest rates. BDEV continued to fall for most of 2010, but the rate of decline slowed and the stock bottomed in late Nov.2010 at near 71p, which was well above the Nov 2009 low of 31p. Then, a year-end rally in BDEV stock began, taking BDEV back near 90p by the end of 2010. We watched to see if the bounce in stocks was going to be strong enough to push back above the 250d/1 year MA, and if that occurred, if there would be a reverse the downturn in UK property prices. In early 2011, Homebuilder prices rose further. BDEV rose above 110p, and pushed beyond the 250d MA, suggesting a Spring 2011 "PAUSE" in the decline in UK-wide home prices. Will the house price rally last? I think not. The failure of the Homebuilder rally and a drop in BDEV back below 100p on high volume (If we see that), would be a sign that Crash Cruise Speed (with falls averaging more than 0.5% per month), is likely to resume. I still expect a long slide in UK House prices into 2012/13 or later. Next Buy signal would be: after the Builder shares break up above key resistance levels on high volume.

This is from the first page of: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap , where I RE-WROTE THE DESCRIPTION IN THE HEADER... Barratt closer / BDEV.L ... update : Longer Term : Last 12 months : 6 mos BDEV has given us excellent early warnings of TURNS in UK house prices. From a low in July 2008 (at 22p), Barratt/BDEV had a long rally into a Sept. 2009 high at 280p. We noticed a key point in the rally, and in early April 2009, predicted a 12 months "Dead Cat bounce" in UK property prices, and that duly arrived. We watched BDEV for a sign that the house price rally was petering out. And from Sept. 2009 and the 280p peak (184p, on a split-adjusted basis), BDEV began to fall. This drop in the share preceded a fall in actual house prices, as measured by various property indices. A key point in the decline, was when BDEV slid back below its 250 day/1 year moving average. That occurred in Feb 2010. Within a few weeks, in Spring 2010 a second downleg in UK property prices began. And it was clearly reflected in the H&Nindex (the average of the non-seassonally adjusted Halifax & Nationwide indicies), which peaked in April 2010 at £169,287. The new slide in UK prices came despite continued ultra-low interest rates. BDEV continued to fall for most of 2010, but the rate of decline slowed and the stock bottomed in late Nov.2010 at near 71p, which was well above the Nov 2009 low of 31p. Then, a year-end rally in BDEV stock began, taking BDEV back near 90p by the end of 2010. We watched to see if the bounce in stocks was going to be strong enough to push back above the 250d/1 year MA, and if that occurred, if there would be a reverse the downturn in UK property prices. In early 2011, Homebuilder prices rose further. BDEV rose above 110p, and pushed beyond the 250d MA, suggesting a Spring 2011 "PAUSE" in the decline in UK-wide home prices. Will the house price rally last? I think not. The failure of the Homebuilder rally and a drop in BDEV back below 100p on high volume (If we see that), would be a sign that Crash Cruise Speed (with falls averaging more than 0.5% per month), is likely to resume. I still expect a long slide in UK House prices into 2012/13 or later. Next Buy signal would be: after the Builder shares break up above key resistance levels on high volume.

... from the BLOG ABOUT THE BOOK: == == QUOTE == == From the concluding chapter of Free Capital: “A consensus of expert opinion is often not useful in finance, because of its self-negating property: if something is widely anticipated, it is already in the price. But the investors’ antipathy towards the concept of taking advice sometimes seemed to go beyond recognition of this point. John expressed the view that “authorised investment advice is a bit of a con”; Sushil said that he placed “almost no reliance on advisors”; Peter remarked that a small company where the management relied heavily on advisors displayed “a typical big-company mentality” (which was not a compliment).” I’ve written a longer article developing this idea... On The Value of Not Taking Advice SUMMARY Conventional wisdom commonly exhorts non-experts to take expert advice when dealing with specialist fields. This works well in relation to the physical or biological world, because theories of these worlds are generally neutral: popular acceptance of a theory does not change the phenomena it describes. In contrast, theories of social phenomena such as finance are often reflexive: popular acceptance of a theory does change the phenomena it describes. Reflexive theories can be either self-fulfilling or self-negating. Advice based on self-negating theories is not likely to be useful. Expert advice is therefore less useful in fields such as investment, which are dominated by self-negating theories. /see: http://guythomas.org.uk/blog/ == == UNQUOTE == == Yeah. Opinions "widely held by experts" - tend to get reflected in stock prices. And the stocks that are widely favored by "experts" tend to get overvalued. It pays to be a contrarian. But you'd better have a notion about why "the experts are wrong", such as the FEARS have become excessive. On GEI, we are talking about investing in Uranium stocks. That is a good example of how an event (a nuclear accident in Japan) has knocked down the price of a certain type of stock. Many experts would advise you to stay away, but there are also many "experts" who already had positions in the stocks, that might be advising you to "buy while they are cheap", and so which sort of person, the buyer or the seller, is the true contrarian. A better contrarian move might be to buy cheap-and-out-favor natural gas stocks, on the theory that they will benefit from expensive crude, and a slowdown in the building of nuclear plants.

I agree with that comment. But eventually "think" will line up with "should". That has been the case for the UK as a whole, and sense may spread to London soon IMHO.

Thanks, I hear you both. But the SUPPLY of properties for renting and selling is the same Supply - there is no barrier between. + A property that is not easily rented, may get sold, and + A property that is not easily sold, may get rented So if people shift from BUYING to RENTING, then the Supply will just shift to match their preference. To put it another way, fewer houses being SOLD, means more available for rent. So a drop in selling, means a greater supply of homes and properties to be rented.

THIS HEADLINE (from an full page advert in today's SCMP) was so bizarre, I had to share it with you: "When you grow rich, head to Shoreditch." (I wonder if this is meant in jest?) The ad goes on to say: "Famous English nursery rhyme features a trendy London area where a 25-storey will be the ultimate in luxury living." /source: http://www.avantgardetower.com/ It goes on to promote a development called : Avant-Garde, "a striking new Zone 1 landmark development for The City of London" (Prices start from Pds 250,000.)

??? That comment is common, but does it really make sense? If people buy or rent, they still need to live somewhere. If they "shift to buying", then they occupy a property which might otherwise be rented out

THIS HEADLINE (from an full page advert in today's SCMP) was so bizarre, I had to share it with you: "When you grow rich, head to Shoreditch." (I wonder if this is meant in jest?) The ad goes on to say: "Famous English nursery rhyme features a trendy London area where a 25-storey will be the ultimate in luxury living." /source: http://www.avantgardetower.com/ It goes on to promote a development called : Avant-Garde, "a striking new Zone 1 landmark development for The City of London" (Prices start from Pds 250,000.)

My guess is that it is due to changing exchange rates, from a US dollar base

And yet RENTS ROSE in London. How did that happen? I find it puzzling. Yet I think it must have been thanks to the moment supplied by a generous Housing Benefits programme, matching "market" rents

WHAT's IN THE FRINGE SECTION ?? (If you want to read the threads, you will need to become a GEI member): GEI's TOP FRINGE THREADS ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ (Hits) 4,861 : 0 / Russian nuclear expert debunks 9/11 4,273 : 1 / Disclosure may be imminent 3,394 : 2 / Pole Shift - and the Prophecies of Edgar Cayce 2,642 : 3 / Anything Goes - Chatbox #1: Highend HiFi etc. 2,637 : 4 / GEI's Fringe Festival : Music & Comedy 1,506 : 5 / Enrieb's : Do we need a new Forum on GEI ? 1,445 : 6 / Time Travel : Does it exit? 1,438 : 7 / Pole Shift? And about Underground bases 1,047 : 8 / Is GEI being "astro-turfed"? ====== 0,847 : 9 / The Benjamin Fulford thread 0,751 : 10/ Intrigued by Russia Today 0,715 : 11/ Earthquake Predictions : Mel Fabregas & others 0,668 : 12/ Foundation X trying to buy UK Govt 0,624 : 13/ Underground bases in the USA 0,538 : 14/ View of the Future - Remote Viewing 0,458 : 15/ Dump the Fringe, some have advised 0,306 : 16/ Dolores Cannon on the New Earth 0,258 : 17/ Rulers of the World - The 33 / Project Avalon

Well, I am not really in a position to "advise" anyone. But if someone asks my opinion, I reckon you can work out what it will be. I gather you think the property is over-priced. I know where Ealing is, and so the prices should be far below Central London. But I think the vendors are playing up the new rail connection, to claim that it will be possible to commute from Ealing more quickly in the future. There may be something in that, but I would rather buy at a discount in 2-3 years time when some buyers may default.

True. I agree with you. And those are likely to be the main folks buying property now : the ones getting good pay rises and/or bonuses - or some other sort of windfall. But will this trickle of buying, be enough to maintain prices? Some other people will be forced to sell due to "circumstances" - economic or other. And indeed, for every family with above median income growth, there will be another with below median income growth. Buying and selling from the economic factor should tend to balance out, and then there will be other important reasons to sell: death, divorce, downsizing (by boomers), and so I seeing prices lower as the Spring seasonal buying fades away.

So mamy properties are now being marketed in HK, which suggests that they are not selling well in their home markets of the UK and Oz It is a good time to have a long barge pole, with which not to touch things

That's not much. In fact, you need to look at AFTER TAX INCOMES, not just Gross Incomes. And I think at a 2.5% growth rate, in a rising tax environment, you will find after (rising) food costs and (rising) energy costs, there is less money to cover a mortgage

THAT IS A COMMON MISCONCEPTION... Inflation only "erodes away" you mortgage, if your pay rises. If inflation picks up, and your salary does not, the mortgage becomes a BIGGER burden rather than a smaller one, because other essentials - like food and energy - grab more of your income, leaving less to cover the mortgage. This issue seems to separate the financially naive (and there are plenty of Estate Agents making this silly claim) from those who have some deeper understanding of inflationary dynamics.

Your posting behaviour here suggests a multiple identity. I am not the only one who has noticed it. I may delete this exchange from an otherwise nicely-developing thread, if you fail to come up with a genuine and useful question for Guy. Perhaps, you should ask him if there will be a free chapter or two on his Blog website

Ask Geoff for a Tip, or ask him to buy the book, and lend it to you. (Or start posting Useful Questions here under one of your other identities) == == OTHER QUESTIONS: ===== 4/ Do you believe that markets are efficient? If not, what in the book would be evidence of inefficiency? 5/ Do you think that Successful investing can be taught? If so, which successful systems are easiest to teach, and what would be the best method of teaching? Do you think universities, or business schools could do a better job of teaching? If so, how? Could successful investing be taught in a follow-up book? Or on GEI? 6/ If many people used the techniques employed, would the opportunities go away? That is "in the works", I believe. And some questions asked here might be used in the interview.

Where the money going to come from to pay those higher rents ?? Gold Over £900/oz As British Pound Falls Sharply - Soaring Inflation Sees UK Retail Sales Plunge Most On Record http://is.gd/JXlrhX Households in the UK are seeing their spending power eroded at the fastest rate in more than 60 years as food and energy costs soar and the faltering recovery restrains wage increases. Concerns about the tentative economic recovery as well as the government’s VAT increase and the deepest spending cuts since World War II are undermining consumer confidence.

Like Madoff's... where the returns were truly "too good to be true", unless he was front running some clients. And many probably were thinking they were benefiting from his defrauding of others The final result provided a sort of ironic return I invite readers to post questions for Charlie, which they might put to him, if they had the chance. Here are some of my own: ======================== 1/ When you started the book, you must have had some ideas of the techniques that successful investors were using to make their returns? What were the biggest surprises for you? 2/ Do you think successful investors enjoyed "long periods of good fortune", where their techniques worked, and that those would be followed by periods where they would not - Or are most in your book consistently successful over time? Are there some techniques employed that appear more consistent than others? 3/ Do you have to be an optimist (about something - even a "bearish" commodity like gold) to be a successful investor?

LOL. I have to agree. A pity you do not post here more. I'm sure that some here - myself, included - could learn from your experience. I have to say, that if I look back over the last 5 years, the strength in London property has surprise me. It has managed to defy cyclical forces so far. I do think it may correct in the years to come, but I cannot rule out a "continuing surprise."

Thanks, Pal, for that useful remark. Could you be the same PAL as posted on SP?