drbubb

You need a bit of both: + Property value, and + Number of people The old POLL TAX aimed for that, but it was terribly unpopular But forcing the old lady to move into a smaller space by raising her tax seems like necessary "tough love" to me. She did little to build up the infrastructure which made her area so attractive to live : Density and other taxes did that/.

Political motivations become transparent, when you become cynical - Don't they?

Yes. I can understand being p-ssed off. But it is likely, isn't it. Homeowners and property investors have enjoyed certain tax benefits. Isnt it likely that such benefits would be rescinded at some stage? And even more taxes added, by a revenue-hungry government? If you wait to buy, then you would see prices fall, making it more affordable to buy, and that would be a positive benefit

There are fools, godd@mned fools, and there are foreigners... The headlines are fairly clear: rents are up, prices have recovered from last autumn’s hiatus, demand from tenants and buyers is healthy but supply everywhere is stubbornly low. Behind the headlines there is a more complex picture across the marketplace, with investment requirements and international demand becoming evermore critical in terms of determining the direction of the market. International buyers, the saviour of the market in early 2009, have now become omnipresent. The desire of Asian, European and Middle Eastern investors to buy into the London market has been soaking up a huge slice of the new-build market and overseas demand is now the biggest single contributor to price growth. Replace the word "desire" with "foolishness" and they have described how I see the market too. Time will tell whether or not those buyers are really being foolish. One thing which would quickly shrink demand from foreigners would be new taxes on high end properties. I reckon this is inevitable, and we may even see new taxes within 2011.

TAX INCREASE coming ?

The part of the market that is still healthy, narrows and narrows. Watch the figures, they show CRASH CRUISE speed is alive and well for the UK as a whole, and Rightmove's latest suggests it is now spreading to London. The real CRUSHER may be higher taxes on property, especially high end. Do you think this can be resisted?:

Do you see a PATTERN here ? (threads from HPC): + "Property Levies To Reduce Income Tax" / Top end...a start + Those Who Benefitted The Most Should Contribute The Most + Why Do Newbuilds Suck? There's a BIG RISK (of tax rises) for anyone buying expensive new property in London now, but no one is talking about it. BTLers are (eventually) going to be a target. Look at this cigarette butt and think: BTL:

Meantime, UK developers are working to offload their London projects flat-by-flat at premium prices in Hong Kong and the rest of Asia like this one

LONDON'S FALLING - Let's acknowledge that! - and Kensington's cold as ice Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : ===================================== mom : + 0.8% : - 1.5% : Est.DI: 143.6% /: -0.02%: = n/a = : -0.92% : +0.13% London’s Worst Performers March 2011 London's BOTTOM 5 -------------------- Avg. Price : Mar 2011 / Feb 2011 ================================== : Monthly Change Ealing----------------------------- £397,393 -- £418,898 : -5.1% Bromley-------------------------- £321,739 -- £339,139 : -5.1% Kensington and Chelsea £1,776,895 £1,870,082 : -5.0% Merton--------------------------- £403,916 -- £424,510 : -4.9% Enfield--------------------------- £315,561 -- £331,418 : -4.8% This this info to your London Estate agent, especially if he is trying to sell you a new property in Ealing Dickens Yard, Ealing Broadway Psst! Want to buy some overvalued London property ?? /see: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/developer/branch/St-George/Dickens-Yard-75079.html

LONDON'S FALLING - Let's acknowledge that! - and Kensington's cold as ice Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx 2011 J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% : F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% : M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : ===================================== mom : + 0.8% : - 1.5% : Est.DI: 143.6% /: -0.02%: = n/a = : -0.92% : +0.13% London’s Worst Performers March 2011 London's BOTTOM 5 -------------------- Avg. Price : Mar 2011 / Feb 2011 ================================== : Monthly Change Ealing----------------------------- £397,393 -- £418,898 : -5.1% Bromley-------------------------- £321,739 -- £339,139 : -5.1% Kensington and Chelsea £1,776,895 £1,870,082 : -5.0% Merton--------------------------- £403,916 -- £424,510 : -4.9% Enfield--------------------------- £315,561 -- £331,418 : -4.8% This this info to your London Estate agent, especially if he is trying to sell you a new property in Ealing Dickens Yard, Ealing Broadway Psst! Want to buy some overvalued London property ?? /see: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/developer/branch/St-George/Dickens-Yard-75079.html

Some think that UK property prices are near a bottom. I am not at all convinced by their arguments... The "target" that I am showing below could occur if we get a deeper slide on the same time frame

The "target" that I am showing below could occur if we get a deeper slide on the same time frame

The "target" that I am showing below could occur if we get a deeper slide on the same time frame

Chinese are top spenders on prime property Buyers from mainland China are now the biggest spenders in the prime central London property market, overtaking Russians as the buyers of the most expensive houses over the past year, according to new research. Chinese buyers spent an average of £6.5m on top-end property purchases in the 12 months to the end of February, outspending the 60 other nationalities that have bought in London over the same timeframe. According to figures from Knight Frank, investors from Malaysia and Hong Kong were the next biggest spenders, paying average purchase prices of £6.2m and £5.5m respectively. Overpriced London properties are being sold with real enthusiasm in Hong Kong

It's Nice to see you posting here again, Ace. Thanks for the update on your portfolio. Hope all is well with you. *I have shares in Columbus Silver, and I hope the takeover will bring some new energy to the company

Good charts - which need posting here too...

The charts suggest that, I agree. But I think the continuining excesses now, and the temporary nature of distortions from "ultra low rates", may mean this correction will ultimately be far greater than the prior one.

That's not true. I was expecting a Rally at the low in April 2009 - check the records/ The psychological signature of major tops tends to be the sorts of opinions we are hearing now on this thread. It is similar in HK and I am ready to sell into it, if I get a high enough price/ Plotting ahead In four months, Berkeley acquired 1,000 more plots across eight new sites. In total, it has acquired 3,500 plots across 21 sites in the past 12 months. These include a mega-plot in the City of London with planning consent for 750 new homes, a 337-bed hotel, 601 student bedrooms and 100,000 square feet of commercial space. Berkeley also bought sites in swish Kensington, the southern Home Counties, and Oxfordshire. In addition, Berkeley has plans to build 752 new homes in Tideway Wharf, Battersea, 400 homes in Southwark, and 4,500 homes at the Crossrail site at Royal Arsenal. Pidgley may be right, I may be wrong. But I like to stick to my methods, and if I put my money into something cheap enough, I will be happy even if property rises. I did that with Gold shares in 2001

I am still getting emails, and signing up New Members. So if you are a LURKER and want to Join our discussion here, do not be afraid to email me !

Do they never learn? You friend is operating in an area beyond "foolish". Think of him as one of the last fools - who will learn to regret his recklessness

the psychology expressed here suggests to me that the uk property market is nowhere near a low where's the fear?

BTW: What sort of prices are you seeing (per square foot)? I won't be buying, I'm just curious.

Right you are. But that assumes NO SALES If you assume 15-20 sales, it looks more like one added per day. And that is also per AE branch - so that's quite a monumental RUSH to sell.

Apologies from me. Nothing sinister is going on. I hit the edit button, rather than the Reply button. A simple error (happens once in a while) I shall fix it

THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECASTS ... http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5h_gQ69bjl54DuH5sbFVHIjmgoW8Q?docId=N0033871300276698161A Number of homes for sale up 25% (UKPA) – The number of properties being put up for sale has soared by 25% year-on-year as sellers become more realistic about how much their homes are worth, research has indicated. The average estate agent branch had 70 properties on its books in February, up from just 56 a year earlier, according to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA). 24 new homes for the average agent? That's almost one new one per day, assuming something like 10-20 sales per month. BLOODBATH COMING ??? No wonder there are so many new homes-for-sale coming to Hong Kong.