drbubb

PUSH UP - by a "rush to complete"? Stamp tax is going up in the UK. From 4% to 5% on homes over Pds. 1 million. The effecctive date is 4 April 2011 - which is not far away. "Homes bought after that will cost Pds10,000 more in tax to buy than the day before." Today's SCMP , talks about how buyers of high end properties are rushing to complete their purchases. Moreover, 85% of homes in that bracket are in the London area. This one off influence, which will disappear soon, may have put some upwards pressure on prices. And such temporary pressure will disappear in the weeks to come, since nuyers are running out of time. I find it strange that the Seasonal Adjustment applied by Nationwide is the reverse of what you would expect when you are aware of this highly predictable influence.

No you see why I do not use SA figures in my H&Nindex. NSA figures are relatively spin-free. Crash cruise speed is still intact (so far), I believe A single month of no move (when the SA was negative in prior years) does not invalidate the trend in place.

No you see why I do not use SA figures in my H&Nindex. NSA figures are relatively spin-free. Crash cruise speed is still intact (so far), I believe A single month of no move (when the SA was negative in prior years) does not invalidate the trend in place.

She can live where she likes, but subsidy she gets should be capped - as it will be. Who should be in the schools you call "local ghetto schools" - only the working poor?

Well spotted, Columbo ! Barratt/ BDEV is indeed at a critical level NOW! ... update : close-up/last12mos I think BDEV will fall away from the key resistance level (near 110p-115p: 377d.MA is 113p) that it reached yesterday Evidence of emerging weakness: Today's action BDEV-105.20p / Change: -2.20p / Percent Change: -2.05% If not, and instead it breaks out above 115p on big volume, I will need to revisit my Bearish forecast.

Well spotted, Columbo ! Barratt/ BDEV is indeed at a critical level NOW! ... update : close-up/last12mos I think BDEV will fall away from the key resistance level (near 110p-115p: 377d.MA is 113p) that it reached yesterday Evidence of emerging weakness: Today's action BDEV-105.20p / Change: -2.20p / Percent Change: -2.05% If not, and instead it breaks out above 115p on big volume, I will need to revisit my Bearish forecast.

MORE from the Nationwide report: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Feb_2011.pdf Supply versus Household formations* Supply side also needs to respond Part of the reason for stretched affordability lies on the supply side of the housing market. The rate of building has not been sufficient to keep up with the growing number of households in recent years. Between 1992 and 2000, house building broadly kept pace with household formation, with 145,000 homes being built in England each year. Between 2004 and 2008 there was a cumulative building shortfall of about 300,000 homes. The pace of building was even more subdued over the past two years, with the number of completions at around 100,000 a year in 2009 and 2010. This is providing underlying support to house prices, which is turn, is reducing affordability and limiting the scope for first time buyers to enter the market. Where next? Looking forward, the number of first time buyers is only likely to increase substantially when labour market conditions strengthen. With the UK economic recovery set to remain fairly modest, the improvement in employment and wages is likely to be slow going. This in turn suggests that first time buyers will be slow to return to the market, further reinforcing our view that the housing market will remain sluggish through 2011. The most likely outcome is that wages will outpace house price growth over many years, gradually improving affordability over time. Over the longer-term, the supply side of the housing market also needs to respond if affordability is to improve on a sustained basis – the housing stock needs to grow at least as fast as the number of households. A near-term loosening of credit conditions would not solve the problem and could ultimately prove counterproductive. == == == *These comments ignore the fact that the modification of the Housing benefits, will tend to reduce or even reverse the long term growth in household formations. But that last paragraph is sensible

THE SPIN CONTINUES... House prices increase by 0.3% in February • House prices increased by 0.3% in February • Prices 0.1% lower than one year ago Headline says : +0.3%. But is it really? A rush to buy before rates rise perhaps. (?) I will take a close look at the nationwide figures (in edit): Just as I thought... That "rise" is pure spin. Actual figures are: Average Price £161,183 £161,211 : the first number is Feb. NSA, compared with Jan.NSA /source: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Feb_2011.pdf Can you see any rise in these numbers ?? Looks like down 18 pounds in Feb. to me

THE SPIN CONTINUES... House prices increase by 0.3% in February • House prices increased by 0.3% in February • Prices 0.1% lower than one year ago Headline says : +0.3%. But is it really? A rush to buy before rates rise perhaps. (?) I will take a close look at the nationwide figures (in edit): Just as I thought... That "rise" is pure spin. Actual figures are: Average Price £161,183 £161,211 : the first number is Feb. NSA, compared with Jan.NSA /source: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Feb_2011.pdf Can you see any rise in these numbers ?? Looks like down 18 pounds in Feb. to me

There should be no examples at all. Benefits folk in middle class homes is pure madness. There must be an incentive to work. Not incentive to sponge.

People will have a choice how to spend the money. Some will spend it badly. Others will spend it well. Why should "poor areas" be reserved for the working poor - as now ?

I think the Coalition has wisely observed that: + The REAL beneficiaries of excessive housing benefits were Private Landlords + Give people the money, without strings attached, and they will spend it differently

Maybe the "projected" need for 2-3 million homes will evaporate: More Data - UK Govt forecasts: ,,,Great Britain / Household numbers to 2001- / Household projections 2006-21 Year ------- 1981 : 1991 : 2001 / 2006 : 2011 : 2016 : 2021 : Gr.Britain : 20.18, 22.39, 24.14 / 25.29, 26.20, ,, London : 02.64, 02.84, 03.17 / 03.25, 03.38, 03.52, 03.65, ,, So.East : 02.64, 03.03, 03.35 / 03.57, 03.74, 03.91, 04.06, ,, So.West: 01.64, 01.90, 02.10 / 02.21, 02.32, 02.42, 02.52, = = ,England : 17.31, 19.21, 20.75, / 21.73, 22.52, 23.31, 24.00, ,Wales....: 01.02, 01.13, 01.19, / 01.24, 01.28, 01.31, 01.34, ,Scotland : 01.85, 02.05, 02.19, / 02.31, 02.41,..,.., /source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nscl.asp?id=7482 /posted: http://tinyurl.com/gpc-hhsize

Great observation ! It is obvious when it is pointed out: The removal of housing benefits should REVERSE the trend of falling household sizes. Instead of building new homes to house parasites (whoops! those on benefits), the UK can just let free choice operate. Hand people the money, and you will find that more people decide it makes sense to share, and suddenly the number of houses need in the UK will go down.

Let's compare that with the UK: H&N index House Price : Pds.161,536 (Jan.2011) : Tinyurl.com/GPC-data Average HH income--- : Pds . 3,129 (Jan.2011) : Tinyurl.com/GPC-incomes* ========================= Ratio : Months to Pay- : 51.6 Months *Note: that's Pds. 37,544 pa / 12 = Pds. 37,544 pa == == As I have said before : The UK has not really "faced its house crash demon" yet. The Brown regime wimped out in late 2008, when it was the first to move the QE and ZIRP. The coalition (and the country) will bear a heavy cross for a long time for that decision. But - to be fair - the crash is underway outside London. When will London face the demon ?

BDEV has a base in London, and has been benefitting from sales to gullible foreigners. I wonder how much longer they can "get away" with that?

Let's compare that with the UK: H&N index House Price : Pds.161,536 (Jan.2011) : Tinyurl.com/GPC-data Average HH income--- : Pds . 3,129 (Jan.2011) : Tinyurl.com/GPC-incomes* ========================= Ratio : Months to Pay- : 51.6 Months *Note: that's Pds. 37,544 pa / 12 = Pds. 37,544 pa == == As I have said before : The UK has not really "faced its house crash demon" yet. The Brown regime wimped out in late 2008, when it was the first to move the QE and ZIRP. The coalition (and the country) will bear a heavy cross for a long time for that decision. But - to be fair - the crash is underway outside London. When will London face the demon ?

Then it represents a potential wealth transfer. The "winners" are those selling at inflate prices IMHO

Why compare Renting with buying on a 90% mortgage? You should calculate off a 100% mortgage (even if you cannot get such a mortgage.) The point is: to "pay yourself" something for the equity you invest NRC management must have "rocks in their heads" to go back to lending so aggressively. What punishment could be suitable for such recklessness? The incentives must be wrong. If the bank goes bust a 2nd time, I think top management should lose their pensions, to help cover any bailout

Welcome, Stefan. Please feel free to post and start threads on topics that interest you

A CRASH is needed to clean out certain excesses, and unhealthy expectations. And then maybe, there is room for more sensible taxation policies - a la Georgists / Fred Harrison

He is not so clear as stocks. Was awaiting a more apparent buying or selling set-up.

LOL Think it will be enough to sustain the luxury end? Those new buyers will be in for a surprise. The UK will find a way to tax them eventually. Fairness will demand it.

To CTR, for his misleading signature: (I am suspending you for 24 hours for failure to get the point.) QUOTE (crushtherents @ Feb 26 2011, 12:57 AM) 39 minutes later UNQUOTE Get the point, Crush. I was ON TOPIC there, talking about property, and the subsidies going to landlords, not attacking others on GEI.

This government largess did improve neighborhoods (somewhat), but at a huge cost to taxpayers. Now that the UK is virtually bust, they may need to un wind such generous spending. And don't be surprised to see rents fall, now that the "sucker bid" is being taken out of the market.