drbubb

... Not much interest in this thread recently, but I shall persist... ...here's a Comment on Neely's record from the Yelnick Blog's comment section: Here is the real scoop on Neely. The market bottomed in March of 2009. Neely did not come close to predicting the exact low, in fact he thought it would go much lower, like to 500 or lower. Here is Neely's most famous call. It was broadcast the world over. Neely was going to show everyone how good he really was. This was June of 2009, post the last big bottom. A very famous call, NOT. “Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October’s low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction,” Neely explains. “The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!” Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917." Things did not go as Neely opined. But he clung to something of similarity for a long long time following that. The following are Neely's words, let us just say about Sept 2009. "In January 2008, I warned customers and the public that a massive, new bear market was underway. That bear market unfolded almost exactly as originally predicted on both a price and time basis. It seemed almost impossible, at the time, the U.S. stock market would experience a 50%+ decline in less than a year, but that was what NEoWave theory told me and that is what occurred. As I have said many times in the past, as a market moves toward the center of a large, complex corrective formation, predictability becomes more and more difficult. It usually reaches the point where you can;t predict what will occur next, confusion is high, inaccurate forecasts are common, everyone is looking for answers (when few are possible) and a level of public agitation or irritation is obvious. That point of confusion is exactly where the S&P is right now. After a year of extremely accurate market forecasts (I was in Timer Digest's Top 10 repeatedly the last 12 months), the S&P is now in the dead center of a 15-20 year, complex correction that began September 2000. Until the S&P moves far from this part of its structure, I will (at best) be able to predict general market direction, but not specific day-to-day behavior. This same phenomenon occurred from 2004 to 2006 when I knew a "bull market" was underway, but I could not predict, with wave theory, exactly how it would unfold. The continuing rally in the S&P has forced me to reconsider the design of the bear market from January 2008. Initially, I thought it would be a complex correction that pushed to new lows at least once more before the lowest point of this 20 year bear market was reached. But, recent action brings into question that assumption and raises new possibilities. For that reason, I went back to my S&P archives and looked up the various scenarios I originally created for the 4+ year bear market starting January 2008. Attached is one of those scenarios that still explains the past, fits current evidence and explains the magnitude of the rally off 2009's low. If correct, the 2008 to 2012+ time frame is a contracting Triangle that will eventually end much higher than 2009's low. It also means 2009's low will not be broken for the next 50 years! This feels eerily like my call in 1988, just 8 months after the 1987 crash low, when I was the only wave analyst in the world predicting 1987's low would never be broken for the rest of my life. The count attached to this email is not yet my "official" wave count, but it is quickly becoming a serious choice. Over the next few weeks it should become more obvious the path this phase of the 20-year bear market will follow." Charts continued to accompany this hysteria, and showed an 'A' bottom higher than Neely predicted, followed by some small 'B' rebound, a 'C' decline, a 'D' rebound and an 'E' decline to an end of wave count per Neowave, for the bear. The noted rebounds were much lower than what we experienced, and in fact the pattern we have experienced shows no resemblance to this prediction. Neely clung to this concept for a long long time, and as bantered about on the web made repeated short attempts with his trading. Following all of this incorrect predictive prowess on Neely's part we then would up with the infamous "it's an unpredictable market" paper on Safehaven and elsewhere. He has another paper out on trading strategies, latter half of 2010. I dunno but maybe one trading strategy would be to know when to fade Glenn Neely. To say that Neely called two tops is an understatement. That is how I feel about it. Jose == == From what I have seen, this is a bit unfair to Neely. I do nkow that he accurately call the LOW at the end of August, while I remained Bearish.

I have seen a 41% figure. That's 41% of the tenants of private landlords, are paid for by the state. This is a ridiculously high figure IMHO, which is one of the things that triggered my "blood from a stone comment." Taxpayers are bleeding to support landlords, made rich by aggressive monetary policy. (Vampires, you might say.)

STILL BEARISH - this is from Yelnick's BUY THE DIP Spoof Neely jumped on this today with his second top call. His first was in June 2009 after the initial runup off the March 2009 low. It tainted his reputation when the market turned inexorably back up, so this call is all all-or-nothing move by him: Applying NEoWave’s advanced market confirmation techniques, Mr. Neely explains that today’s collapse confirms the end of an old pattern and the start of a new one. This new pattern suggests a 1- to 2-year bear market has begun and will likely result in a 30+% drop in market valuation. ... Instead of financial institutions and real estate markets being devastated, Mr. Neely suspects the most likely justification for this future market decline will be severe financial problems for federal, state and local governments. The result could be local and national transportation disruptions, public service problems and government employee layoffs around the country. Other circumstances that might justify a 30+% decline in the stock market could be a substantial increase in the cost of energy or a drastic increase in the value of the U.S. dollar (i.e. deflation). So Neely is calling for the bursting of the final bubble, the Government Bubble. Could be. "Austerity" is the new black. States are all cutting back. The irony of the protests in Wisconsin is that the protesters are trying to hold onto the status quo, whereas the Libyans (and Egyptian, Tunisians et al.) are trying to upend it. Which side is history on? We shall find out. Neely's logic on the USD is that once the Government Bubble bursts, the stimulus and subsidies end, leading to improving the prospects for the currency. Why? A falling currency is really a bet against unsound government policies; and at the same time rising gold becomes a hedge against bad government. At some point excessive stimulus/subsidy/easy-credit has to end, and we may have reached that point. Deleveraging will follow, with a vengeance, and the Dollar will soar. /see: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2011/02/buy-the-dip.html

Fine. (I think it is clear to everyone by now where the logic lies in that prior discussion.) Why not pick up on this point - Directed towards Landlords - who are in denial about what they are facing... "I want to encourage people to wean themselves from a dependency on the state, and things like benefits payments and artificially low rates. Else, they may get MASSACRED when those favorable influences are suddenly cutoff in the future." LL's get both: + Rents, subsidized by the state - paid as Housing benefits, and + Low rates, robbing savers, driven down by Central bank influence. I think it is a GREAT TIME to get out of the BTL business. I wonder how many will figure this out while prices are still at inflated levels?

I think he knew who he was responding to. In what way is trading an "overprotected" or subsidised profession? It is one of the most competitive you can find. Meantime, I am well aware that it is mainly a zero-sum game. And I am grateful that I live in a world that allows me to make a living by doing "detective work", and other forms of research - that I find personally rewarding. I express my gratitude by creating and developing this website. It is a way of sharing my research and discoveries with others, in hope that I will create a "positive feedback cycle" (which some would call "good karma.")

What?? Am i reeponsible for THAT now? I am self-sufficient, pay taxes, and do things that help others. I am not ready to also clean up a nuclear mess in Russia that I had nothing to do with. On the other hand, I want to encourage people to wean themselves from a dependency on the state, and things like benefits payments and artificially low rates. Else, they may get MASSACRED when those favorable influences are suddenly cutoff in the future.

I was without a job (or much of an income) for months, even years. And I never took a penny from the government. I did not need to. Luckily, I found a way to support myself, before I ran out of funds. I don't blame you for taking benefits that are legally yours. But that does not mean that most benefit seekers are not unfairly living off the state. As I said, the culture is very different in Hong Kong. And I like the way the Hong kongers handle benefit seeking, more than what British culture encourages. In the end, I think the British and American systems will collapse under their own weight before long - Then the benefits recipients will suddenly realise the unsustainability of the system they are living off. I think it may be healthier for people to come to that realisation sooner rather than later, and try to wean themslves off it.

??? I have paid a rather HUGE amount of taxes over my lifetime. Various governments (and those that live off them) have done well by my efforts. So I dont really "get" your point at all

Thanks, for the tip, CC Well-meant and appreciated. (there's a reason that I have not upgraded yet, which I may advise you by PM.) Actually, I think a sign-on fee of $1 or One Pound might be a good way to go, with a second means of an email to Founder, if people feel that is too much to pay.

There is time for one more correction... probably - but only if a correction starts soonish. And I think there's a fair chance that HK will get caught up in a sort of perfect storm of rising interest rates. Good on you for holding on so long, but I wonder if we will have another year. I may sell my last place (where we live!) before then. I may be willing to bet that Hang Lung will put the last part of Long Beach for sale right near the top sometime in 2007. And by then, Imperial Cullinan will have topped out, and we will know who has a view left here in the Olympic area In terms of the NUMBER OF FLATS COMING, and when: + A measure to "Stabilise the Property Market" announced within the Budget was: "Housing land available in 2011-12 will provide a total of 30,000 and 40,000 private residential flats, far exceeding an annual average of 20,000 flats." + On top of this, is redevelopment: "52 residential sites will be available for sale in 2011-12." + Based on what I have seen. The property next door to me (Imperial Cullinan) was sold as Land in June 2007*, and will be sold next month - That's a 4 year delay in SELLING, and move-in will be late 2011/ early next year: So 5 years from sale was approximate move-in day. + Today's Standard talks about: LAND FOR 35,400 FLATS THIS YEAR... and that's not just hot air: "HK's on track to get land for 35,400 new private flats in the year ahead." "Our disposition with regard to supplying land is very vigorous this year," said Carrie Lam. Two key sites I will be watching are: Tsuen Wan West, and Nam Cheong West Rail stations ... "expected to provide 6,700 flats." (I could live at Nam Cheong- not sure about TW.) The MTR tried selling the NC site in 2010, but pulled it when the bids were not high enough. I think developers may start discounting their existing projects, only if new land is available at cheaper prices. The government should aim to KNOCK DOWN the price of land by oversupplying the developers. Lev may be right, this latest dollop of supply may not hit the market until AFTER a possible 2016-2017 peak. == == == *Imperial Cullinan, was sold as Land in June 2007: Land Sale Result 2007/2008 Date 12.June.2007 Auction / KIL 11146 : HOI FAI RD, KOWLOON User: R1 Area----: 11 353. sqm : (note- SHKP mentions the area as: 889k sf in Total) $5 560Mn / (794+95=889k) = $6,254 per sf Land cost /see: http://www.landsd.gov.hk/en/landsale/records/2007-2008.pdf (rising in the empty slot to the right of TLB) SHKP report says: 794,000 square feet (Residential) 95,000 square feet (Shopping centre) /see: http://www.shkp.com/en/scripts/about/about_upcoming08.php /project site: http://www.imperialcullinan.com.hk/en/

It is the MORNING AFTER - and this Hangover will be Nasty The housing market is heading for a fall By Bengt Saelensminde Feb 23, 2011 On Monday, Rightmove delivered news of its latest health check on the UK housing market. And boy was it ugly. Rightmove spelled out the news in three grim statistics: • 1.3m properties were put on market last year • 884,000 properties were sold (HMRC data) • 530,000 mortgages were granted Those three facts all point to one thing: the UK housing market could soon be falling in a big way. Let's break that down to see why. The half a million property overhang Rightmove represents 90% of the housing market in the UK. So its statistics are meaningful and shouldn't be ignored. The story this time is a very worrying one for homeowners. If 1.3m homes came to the market and 884,000 sold, that left a new overhang of just under half a million properties. But had it not been for rich cash-buyers, ferreting away investment property (no mortgage), this would have been much worse. The other issue is credit. If buyers can't get mortgages, then there is very little chance that that massive overhang of property is going to get cleared anytime soon . . . Ultimately, the underlying imbalance in demand and supply of houses has been repressed by low rates. Existing homeowners have hung on in there and cash rich buyers have chased any old yield - together, they've kept the market in check. As the imbalance continues to grow and rates start to let rip, things are about to change. /more: http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/prope...or-a-fall-10707

It is the MORNING AFTER - and this Hangover will be Nasty The housing market is heading for a fall By Bengt Saelensminde Feb 23, 2011 On Monday, Rightmove delivered news of its latest health check on the UK housing market. And boy was it ugly. Rightmove spelled out the news in three grim statistics: • 1.3m properties were put on market last year • 884,000 properties were sold (HMRC data) • 530,000 mortgages were granted Those three facts all point to one thing: the UK housing market could soon be falling in a big way. Let's break that down to see why. The half a million property overhang Rightmove represents 90% of the housing market in the UK. So its statistics are meaningful and shouldn't be ignored. The story this time is a very worrying one for homeowners. If 1.3m homes came to the market and 884,000 sold, that left a new overhang of just under half a million properties. But had it not been for rich cash-buyers, ferreting away investment property (no mortgage), this would have been much worse. The other issue is credit. If buyers can't get mortgages, then there is very little chance that that massive overhang of property is going to get cleared anytime soon . . . Ultimately, the underlying imbalance in demand and supply of houses has been repressed by low rates. Existing homeowners have hung on in there and cash rich buyers have chased any old yield - together, they've kept the market in check. As the imbalance continues to grow and rates start to let rip, things are about to change. /more: http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/prope...or-a-fall-10707

I will read this later - when I have time... Glenn Neely’s recent article, “Trading Strategies to Employ in Today’s Challenging Markets,” in the latest issue of Trader’s World magazine. Click the link below to download the PDF, then open it to page 32 to read the article: http://www.tradersworld.com/archives/download.html or here: http://downloads.payloadz.com/45951%2f48.p...ZM3D44FSG20CP82

If I was trading less, I would be paying less tax. So another activity that allows me to feed myself, have a decent life, and pay less tax might be rather compelling. I do think that the UK pays out far too many benefits, and has much to learn from the efficiency of Hong Kong. I voted with my plane ticket when I moved to HK. I still pay tax to Uncle Sam, but I see less of my other income frittered away in fashionable socialism. And I am not surrounded by people who think the state owes them so many entitlements, at a time when taxpayers and otherwise-good businesses are collapsing thanks to the scale of the sucking.

The comment on bankers stands up IMHO, But only because banks have grown too large, way beyond the level at which they are serving the economy, and they have sought to become master - creating laws and trading instruments and activities that are ultimately parasitic on society. We have too many banks, and too many bankers. The banking system is too big (at 20-30% of profits) - and therefore designed to fail periodically. Shrink it, and we would have fewer booms, fewer busts. There might also be fewer trading opportunities too. And many of those who make their living from trading would need to do something else. Personally, I think about the "something else" regularly. Maybe I will come up with an alternative someday.

The "golden days" of low rates may be ending quickly == == The Foxes got in early... Fox lives high life in skyscraper Fox lives high life in skyscraper The intrepid visitor spent two weeks roaming free and surviving on scraps of food left by builders at the 288 metre Shard building at London Bridge. The animal, named Romeo by staff, is thought to have entered via the central stairwell before conquering the climb to reach the building's roof. But his stay ended when he became trapped on the 72nd floor of what will become Europe's biggest building when it is completed. Romeo was caught by Southwark Council pest control officers and taken to Riverside Animal Centre in Wallington where the hungry explorer was given a thorough medical and a few good meals. "We explained to him that if foxes were meant to be 72 storeys off the ground, they would have evolved wings," said Ted Burden, the centre's founder. The fox was then released back into the London Bridge neighbourhood, close to his den and family. /more: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20110224/tuk-f...er-6323e80.html

Well, obviously I disagree with that. If you are living off the state (& its taxpayers) you are hadly in a position to call independent people, who pay taxes: "vampires." (BTW, I have paid more than Pds 500,000 in taxes since I began this way of life. I wonder how many vamps lived off that?) I suggest you think again, and realise that a defensive impulse has corrupted your ability to reason. Time to reboot.

Why that dig?? What you call "doing nothing useful" is part of the capital allocation process. If I help someone else manage their money, and do a good job and get paid for it, how is that any different from doing it for myself, and paying myself? At least I am not "ripping off" someone by charging a fee for poor performance. (if I perform badly, I lose money when I manage my own.) BTW, supporting myself by trading and running a (helpful) website, is far better than living off the state, and expecting people to pay taxes to feed me, don't you think? (On further reflection, I think your comment must be a case of not wanting to admit that you are living off others - so you get no respect from me ! There may be good reasons for doing that, but I suggest you not bite the hands that feed you. And give some respect to those that manage to feed themselves, despite not having a "proper job.")

I agree, they swings tend to get exacerbated by governmental action. But I do think those flats will trickle into the market over 4-5 years.

LAND AND PROPERTY - Key Points from the Budget - per SCMP ================ + 52 residential sites will be made available for auction or tender in 2011-12 (to build 3,000 small and medium flats) + Enough land will be made available in the coming year to build 30,000 to 40,000 flats + Government to consider allowing "rock caverns" to be developed into usable undrground space + It will consider buying industrial buildings to house NT office of water supply == == Problem: No timetable on when that land would be turned into flats Question: why not do more with HK's vacant and cheap industrial space ??

they need to take passive income on property more heavily. After all, property cannot be moved outside the country

INFLATION may be the big concern - but "hands are tied on rates" HK INTEREST RATES are too low... No wonder property prices go on surging You can borrow 50-60% at about 1% (that's 75 bp over 1 month libor of 25 bp) Why is that too low? This is an excerpt from a story in the WSJ about John Tsang's budget: "Fighting inflation is our major task this year," Mr Tsang told lawmakers. "As Hong Kong is an externally oriented economy... we cannot use interest rates as a tool to contain inflation." Hong Kong's headline inflation rate was 2.4%, up from 0.5% in 2009, as prices rose amid a stronger economy - growth last year was 6.8% - and a weaker local currency. Mr Tsang says he expects inflation to accelerate to 4.5%, and average around 3.5% from 2012 to 2015. The administration forecasts growth of 4 to 5% this year. == == Hands tied? Perhaps not. I wonder... Maybe they could introduce an "interest surcharge" on mortgages - and have the banks collect it, and hold onto it, until a property is sold. This would hit the cash flows - and make buying less attractive than renting. But with rents rising fast, they need to do something about that too. Tax empty flats perhaps? All these crazy ideas come out - because of the fundamental distortion caused by the peg

(He caught the high, it seems): February 22, 2011 – Today, the U.S. stock market experienced a major selloff, falling more than 2%. According to Glenn Neely, Wave theory expert and founder of NEoWave Institute, this confirms the end of the rally off November 30, 2010’s low and probably the end of the bull market that began at 2009’s low. Recently, Mr. Neely warned subscribers to the NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services that a “major event” was on the horizon. In preparation, Mr. Neely instructed trading customers to go Short, right at last Friday’s high and clsoe, which is currently top-tick of the month! Applying NEoWave’s advanced market confirmation techniques, Mr. Neely explains that today’s collapse confirms the end of an old pattern and the start of a new one. This new pattern suggests a 1- to 2-year bear market has begun and will likely result in a 30+% drop in market valuation. While economic conditions have improved greatly since 2009’s low, NEoWave warns a new downturn (lasting 1- to 2-years) is beginning. As is always the case, markets anticipate future economic reality. While news has been improving, wave structure warns the U.S. stock market has turned a corner, setting the stage for an “echo” of the 2008/2009 financial crisis – but this time with a new twist. Instead of financial institutions and real estate markets being devastated, Mr. Neely suspects the most likely justification for this future market decline will be severe financial problems for federal, state and local governments. The result could be local and national transportation disruptions, public service problems and government employee layoffs around the country. Other circumstances that might justify a 30+% decline in the stock market could be a substantial increase in the cost of energy or a drastic increase in the value of the U.S. dollar (i.e. deflation).

I don't think it is harsh - It is factual. Look what happens when the state falters, all those people living off it, find they are cut off. This result - a faltering government - is so very likely... not only in the US, but in the UK too. People had better learn to be more self-sufficient, or they are going to face a big shock in the months and years to come. I do not limit my comment to benefit takers, but to all manner of people and enterprises who live off the state. And that includes politicians, who are some of the worst "vampires" of all.

Don't kid yourself. You cannot get "blood from a stone", and if taxpayers are unwilling to pay more, then those vampires that live off the state, will find the blood they have been feeding off is drying up. We would have seen a fall in property prices earlier, but the vile Brown regime found ways of keeping the game going for a few years longer. Pushing rates down was part of the trick, and pushing up housing benefits (to pay HIGHER rents) was another part. That trickery is now coming to an end. I think that the current government may realise that subsidising rents, and putting more money in the pockets of landlords, who have done little to earn the largess, is counterproductive. It pushes up property prices, and makes it harder for FTBers to get on the housing down-escalator. UK taxpayers lose twice: They pay more tax, and they find house prices pushed higher. Unless they happen to own property already, such taxpayers are PAYING for the privilege of watching property to be pushed out of reach.