drbubb

In case there are other CHARTISTS reading this thread, I have added a few lines Here's a close-up of the last three years - the market can been seen to be in an ascending wedge HSI / Daily-since 2009 ... update

I have updated my charts for Hong Kong : Property versus the HSI / Stock index

The following chart compares the Centaline index (for HK property) with the Hang Seng Index / HSI. Updates: Centaline index : HSI-to-12/2011 : HSI-w/MAs : HSI-wk-4yrs : HSI-D-2yrs I think we may be within a topping region now for the Centaline index, especially if the HSI breaks down below 20,000 and/or within 2011 the HSI fails to exceed its 2010 highs.

Think what would happen if a 20 foot wave (from a Tsunami) were to hit Hong Kong: + Much of the cities buildings might survive, but much would be washed away and there would be huge casualties + The MTR, buses, and ferries would be immobilsed + Electric power and water would be knocked out for sometime + Food distribution would be disrupted for many days Much of HK's population lives day-to-day and stores little food. If the food is not resupplied then much of the population would be starving within very few days. An ugly situation which illustrates how little resilience Hong Kong has in certain scenarios.

Food for thought for Hong Kong? Where do you guys store extra food?

How completely reckless !: The councils will put 20% of the price in a Lloyds TSB account, with the lender asking for a 5% deposit. The funds will not go to the buyer and the mortgage rate will be lower. The councils risk losing money if a buyer defaults, but they get a generous interest rate themselves. The scheme could benefit up to 300 first-time buyers in each area, but if other councils join, thousands could potentially benefit. If it was a viable idea, then the private sector would do it. The only money that should go into this is the Pension Money from the council members who want to do it. If it goes bad, they should lose. If they wind up on the streets, it would serve them right from wanting to risk ratepayers money. If it is your council: Protest! They are robbing you.

HK agents charge 1% and that's negotiable (to the downside.) Admittedly, it is paid on both sides, which is different than some other countries. But apart from "managing a chain", I have no idea what AE's in the UK and elsewhere do to justify charging more.

"the chain"? Yes. I had forgotten about that annoying feature of the UK market. I find it amazing that such an archaic aspect is allowed to exist. How can the UK consider itself in the 21st century with "chains" still alive? The way to handle it, is to do what every modern country does: + The Buyer pays a Deposit + If he fails to close on time, he loses it No ifs, ands, or buts. If he fails to sell his own house: Bad luck. Why should he pass the risk on to someone else? How much does a Non-chain Buyer save these days in the UK? 5%? 10%? 20%? That's the ONLY way to play the game IMHO. And stop overpaying pirate EAs.

Whatta scam ! That is advertising for the Agent, whose name will appear prominently on the Ad. I reckon it does little good for the vendor.

Isnt it possible to negotiate with these pirates? Such as: Agreeing to only pay the full 2% commission if: + The EA can find a buyer at YOUR target price, or better, and + Within a pre-agreed timeframe If he takes longer, or achieves a lower price, you pay him less. That's the way we do it in Hong Kong. in Selling 9 properties, we often got in a situation where the buyer was within 1% of my agreed selling price. In those cases, the EA would ask me to accept less. I would agree to do so, "Only if you (the EA) takes a lower commission." "I will take Pds,5,000 off the sales price, if you take Pds.5,000 off your commission. That means the buyer can pay Pds.10,000 less. What ever reduction I agree from my 'bottom' sales price, I agree to split 50/50 with yourself." This gives the EA a powerful incentive to get the deal done at the target price. It has worked well for me,

That is good news! Madness cannot go on forever. Paul Thomasen agrees with you: Despite that, or maybe because of it: the developers from Oz are pumping their properties furiously in HK right now.

Yes, Hong Kong Property is a bubble, so? EXCERPT from a Blog by ... Zarathustra / 28 January, 2011, It seems that we have had too many stories these day on how expensive Hong Kong real estate is. . . . I have made it quite clear in my own 2011 Hong Kong Property Forecast that fundamentals of Hong Kong real estate market are not as strong as people think. Population growth is slow, so the idea that there is a supply shortage is, in my view, nonsense. . . . The only thing that sustains the current level of home prices is record low interest rate, which was made possible by the quantitative easing in the United States as Hong Kong dollar is pegged with US dollar, and the inflow of money from the Mainland. Clearly, the current ultra-low interest rates are not sustainable. The question is when interest rate is going to rise, or when the money flow will become unfavourable to Hong Kong real estate market. Money may stay around longer than we like to see, but it can also leave more quickly than we feel comfortable. /more: http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/real-estate/yes-hong-kong-property-is-a-bubble-so.html == == == "HIBOR rates expected to increase this week by upwards of .5%" It was a minor rise in rates, but it may begin to slow the rising tide in HK Property prices. I think it will take a bigger rise to REVERSE prices, and probably we will see such a rise in 2011.

Looks like those puts that I bought to hedge my GLD bulls spreads might payoff afterall

If he comes back and says: "They rejected it." You might try this: "Repeating my previous, minus Pds.5,000, awaiting realistic counter offer."

Logo A = Gold bars (normal) Logo B = Barrels (normal) Logo B = Barrels (smaller)

Tell them: "Thanks, but no thanks. I will deal with a more fair minded agent next time - when I expect to be paying far less."

That would CRUSH housing of course. The real value of houses would shrink drastically compared to the "price of beans", as people downsize to cover essentials. If we see inflation, it will not be "your father's inflation" - and those who buy property will get steamrolled- and they will deserve it for being so frigging stupid, and not doing their homewrok

(from another thread on Main) You obviously do not know about "rural Hong Kong" - nor do most other people. Paradoxically, it is rather close to the "skyscraper Hong Kong" that everyone thinks of. You just take a short 40 minute ferryboat ride to Mui Wo (on Lantau Island), hop on your bicycle, and you can be in a village after cycling another 10 minutes. There is food grown in gardens in these places. And when you come off the ferrybat from Central you will be offered local produce. They do not grow enough to feed themselves. But if you have your own garden, you could survive for weeks on your own food, and maybe for months if you store some, and can keep your hungry neighbors from raiding your stores. I am not really suggesting this as a survival option for BFC times, but I do think that it may make sense for the GF and I to try living in one of the villages for a week or so thsi summer to see how we like it. It beats uproot ourselves to move to some rural place, and then find that we hate it.

Good to see you posting here THAT is a massive drop ! Sudden slump in mortgage lending, lenders reveal The number of new mortgages lent to house buyers slumped by 29% in January compared to December, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said. At just 28,500 the figure was also 12% lower than in January last year. The CML said the fall was larger than expected at the time of year and due to an "unusual combination of factors".* The figures suggest the property market may be heading for a new downturn in activity due to mortgage rationing and the uncertain state of the economy. "With the effects of last year's government spending cuts beginning to bite, and rising inflation and tax measures putting pressure on household budgets, potential house-buyers are likely to have been discouraged," the CML said. "This, coupled with December's extreme winter weather, and uncertainty over future interest rate rises, has led to a lack of movement in the mortgage market." == == *Such as a significant portion of the population waking up from a property-loving dream, and "smelling the coffee."

LOL. What a funny attitude! On the way towards near Zero, those $100 Detroit houses will have been a real millstone. Paying a mortgage in a house that has negative equity is a burden: financially and psychologically. Do you think during the last 10 years of seeing one's house collapse in value, while the neighbors move away, and the crack dealers move in leaves one with warm feelings? No one is saying: "Goody! I once thought I would love living here. Now I hate it. But at least after another ten years, the house may hold its present $100 value, and after that time I will have paid it off." Instead they will say: "I never should have bought this shack! If only I had my money and freedom back, I could move away to some place nicer, and give my children a better future." Cities go up and down, and even London has shown us years and decades of falling living standards over its history.

Tell that to the good people of Detroit ! I was born there, so I know that you cannot take it for granted that "a house will never have no value"

AND MEANTIME... The "owner" is trapped - paying the mortgage, if he falls into negative equity. Unless he is willing to reach into his pocket, and lose another sum of money (the negative equity) ontop of the large DEPOSIT that he may have paid already. This is only a sensible deal TO BUY, of the house is cheap enough, and RENTS are not much cheaper than owning. I think that many will find they have to learn this lesson the hard way... once again.

Dont you get it... Once you fall into negative equity, a house is a trap, not a home

What happens... when property prices drop 20-30% in 3-4 years? Where does that leave the people who borrowed 90%, and the bansk that lent to them? I can tell you how a smart country manages mortgage risk... Hong Kong suffered a 70% DROP in property prices (from 1997 - 2003) How many HK banks do you think went bust, and needed to be bailed out? NADA - None, Not a single bank/ That is partly because HK people believe in paying their debts - they do not want to lose face. But also because the banks rarely lend more than 70%, unless they have some enhanced security - a special second mortgage guarantee. It is sound and sensible PROVEN by the disparate events over the last decade : with US and UK banks going bust, and HK banks remaining sound, even thought HK went thru a worse ringer than the UK. Why do the clowns that manage NRK do it - even when Gov. King is warning them? Because they are reckless and greedy - and that behaviour deserves a "reward" of its own.

CHARTS are Back - on the GPC data thread... Techniques that called the bounce, are now predicting a slide =========================================== : // Link here: http://tinyurl.com/UKTrap Barratt Dev'l / BDEV : Monthly chart : READ THE CHARTS ! They whisper their messages to those who can decipher them. Close-up : H&N Index (ave. of Halifax & Nationwide) ... Rightmove's London Offering prices .. Barratt closer / BDEV.L ... update : Longer Term : Last 12 months : 6mos It looks to me like BDEV had a "fake out" bounce on light volume in Sept. 2009, and the NEXT LEG DOWN is underway. I will expect a continuing slide in Uk House prices into 2012/13 or later. Buy signal: after the Builder shares break up on high volume.