drbubb

Can you give us a little summary of what you have learned from such an autopsy ?

More "back of envelope"... W is $220/mtu. The company expects 500,000 MTU/year. At that rate, revenue from tungsten would be on average at $110M per year at long term prices. (some sources cite prices as high as $400/mtu, for revenue of $200M for tungsten alone.) Another 1/3 of revenue is comprised of molybdenum... Assuming $15 molybdenum, = $170m in revenue per year at the long term prices.)

Don't be shy ! Lurkers : Send me an email, if you want to join us.

Sisson Project / Concept envisions: ======= + Open pit mine + Low strip ratio (1:1) + Conventional processing at 20,000 tonnes per day + Crushing + Dense Media Separation (DMS) + Grinding + Flotation + Production of separate W and Mo concentrates on site + Anticipated average recoveries of 74% WO3 and 70% Mo + Approximately 500,000 mtu/yr production ====== Back of Envelope: PRODUCTION: 177 M tonnes at 0.094% WO3 and 0.031% Mo, (=354 Bn lbs) : containing 368 Mlb of WO3 and 121 Mlb of Mo : 368 x$9 = $3,312Mn + 121 x$15 = $1,815 Mn : $5,127 Mn Assuming recovery of 72% = $3,691 Mn : $3.7 Billion 500,000 MT per year: + 0.094% WO3 = 0,470 t= 940k x $9 /lb. = $8,460 k x74% + 0.031% Moly = 0,155 t= 310k x $15/lb. = $4,650 k x70% ============================================== REVS : $ 13.11 Mn x 72.6% : $ 9.52 Mn = ($6,260k+$3,255k) Cost================= : $ 4.76 Mn (at 50%) ================================= NetCF=============== : $ 4.76 Mn (at 50%)

Sisson Project Overview Resource ========== + Measured and Indicated: 177 M tonnes at 0.094% WO3 and 0.031% Mo, containing 368 Mlb of WO3 and 121 Mlb of Mo + Inferred resource: 69 M tonnes at similar grades + Long life operation (20+ years) + Continuous mineralization and amenable to low cost open pit mining + Conventional processing + Clean tungsten and molybdenum concentrates with no deleterious elements + Ongoing geological, metallurgical, environmental & engineering studies + Federal/Provincial Corporate tax rate of 23% + New Brunswick is expected to have one of the lowest provincial corporate income tax rates by 2012 of 8% Bankable Feasibility Study targeted for completion by Q1 2012

Northcliff / Sisson Tungsten Project ... Selling off into mid-2020 Updated chart / NCF ... All: 5yrW: 3yrD: 2yr: 1yr / Last: 2.5 cents @ 6.24.2020 Sisson Project Joint Venture @ 2011 + On October 21, 2010, Northcliff and Geodex Minerals formed an unincorporated joint venture (JV) to advance the Sisson Project from its current scoping stage + Northcliff has a 70% controlling interest in the Project + To maintain its interest, Northcliff must fund the lesser of: : $17M* in JV development expenditures; or : An amount to produce a feasibility study report and to commence production as contemplated under this feasibility study : No time restrictions for funding commitments + Northcliff is operator of the project + At March 2011, Northcliff had $2.9M in working capital remaining to commence feasibility work program ====== Northcliff is going public at $1.00 per shares / for $30 Million Geodex Minerals (GXM.v) ... update At $0.xx, MarketCap is C$Xx.x Mn Below is the historical Tungsten price per metric ton. > source Year Price Price (Inflation Adjusted) Change 2018 $30,300.00 $30,300.00 -16% 2017 $35,200.00 $36,044.80 -8% 2016 $38,150.00 $39,964.11 -6% 2015 $40,320.00 $43,208.75 -9% 2014 $43,840.00 $47,027.93 -6% 2013 $46,600.00 $50,788.45 -22% 2012 $56,700.00 $62,723.19 18% 2011 $46,700.00 $52,745.77 42% 2010 $27,000.00 $31,471.27 5% 2009 $25,700.00 $30,435.28 -37% 2008 $35,100.00 $41,400.98 -2% 2007 $35,900.00 $43,953.69 -3% 2006 $37,000.00 $46,568.87 19% 2005 $29,900.00 $38,836.93 61% 2004 $11,600.00 $15,579.45 25% 2003 $8,710.00 $12,013.87 -4% 2002 $9,080.00 $12,812.27 -38% 2001 $12,500.00 $17,920.25 34% 2000 $8,290.00 $12,217.48 15% = = = = = LINKS Presentation :: http://www.northcliffexploration.com/i/pdf/NCL_Presentation_Mar2011.pdf

They may return when those relying on Unearned income have been forced onto a diet, and productive work is encouraged once again, through tax policy and an economy turned towards sustainable growth, rather than selling overpriced flats to each other, and spiv finance.

SHKP's Imperial Cullinan blocks name first revealed Layout of the 4-bedroom with 2 en-suite unveil The Imperial Cullinan, Sun Hung Kai Properties (SHKP)'s new waterfront luxury residential project on Hoi Fai Road, staged its first local roadshow last week right after another one in Futian, Shenzhen. The roadshow was held in Oval Atrium, Podium Level 1 of Two International Finance Centre, Hong Kong. Debut of the project's master plan and information was ardently received. Today, SHKP will launch the project's blocks name and 4-bedroom (with double suite) flats in response to customers' demand. Hong Kong buyers can experience the Imperial Cullinan's excellent design unmatched in West Kowloon ... . . . "The Imperial Cullinan includes 6 blocks, namely Imperial Seafront, Imperial Seaview, Imperial Seabank, Imperial Seashore, Imperial Seaside and Imperial Seacoast. The 4-bedroom flats (with double suite) first put on sale is composed of flats in the 1st, 2nd, 6A-6B and 8th blocks. The district-rare 4-bedroom flats boast flexible partitioning and unique designs." About Imperial Cullinan Imperial Cullinan is a new luxury residential project by SHKP in a prime location at 10 Hoi Fai Road in southwest Kowloon. It will have a panoramic view of Victoria Harbour and will form a brace of waterfront luxury with SHKP's The Cullinan, in an oasis of luxury living that provides a perfect counterfoil to the IFC and ICC commercial landmarks. The project will have six blocks containing approximately 650 first-class residential units. Standard units will range from about 800 to 1,900 square feet in layouts from two to five bedrooms. The development will also have unique harbour front units that will set it apart as a prime luxury development in southwest Kowloon. For details, please click the following links: English version: http://www.shkp.com/en/scripts/news/news_press_detail.php?press_id=4240

UNearned income

If they cut the bejesus out of the transfer programs, then the imbalances (like inflated home prices) will disappear, and they can put the UK back on track. Way too many people in the UK are living off: + Transfer payments + House price appreciation + "Unearned" rental income They need to eviscerate those sorts of folks, and encourage productive activity. Taxing "City Workers" (and sportsmen too) at 90-95% for incomes beyond PDS 200,000 per annum, might also help

"Kick out the Jams ! Mo//erFockers!" Reduce all the expensive subsidies, and you will see: What you saw in the US. People move in with friends and family, and the aggregate demand for Housing drops, reducing prices. Instead, the criminal brigade that ran the UK before (the Brown stuff), just keep pushing up non-commercial demand, fueling house price appreciation.

MORTGAGE STATS - per BarCap report + Hong Kong bank mortgage debt : up 37% from mid-2007 to end-2010 + Bank Mtg Debt: HK$740 billion (end 2010) was $530bn, mid-2007 + Total Mtg Debt: HK$760 billion (end 2010) was $501bn, 1997 + Ave. mortgage debt per unit (HK$688k/unit), 29% above 1997 peak + Cause : Gearing up by investors/speculators + Mtgs on 463,000 flats in 2010 - that's 52% of Housing stock + Ave. price per unit: HK$4.62mn (1997), and HK$4.67mn (2010) + LTV: 28% in 1997, and 35% LTV in 2010 "We suspect that the low cost and easy availability of debt, combined with the expectation of house price inflation, have clearly encouraged investors/speculators to pay more for property and encouraged them to hold more than they normally would. It has also encouraged them to gear up more aggressively, supported by the low holding costs and the prospect of making a profit on the back of someone else’s money." "In the physical market, the government’s announced 10.5% vacancy rate for properties over 1,100sq ft is evidence, in our view, of the increasingly investment-driven demand of Hong Kong’s housing market for holding better quality property (front running mainland money flows). Given that there is typically a 10% sales price discount for a tenanted property, deflating mortgage costs by capital appreciation shows the incentive for investors to continue to hold properties vacant for easier future sales, whilst speculating on future price increases." . . . "This relatively low level of cash buying is consistent with our belief in a growing market for RMB arbitrage loans, which currently afford mainland buyers an attractive interest rate carry and allow circumvention of China’s capital controls (despite the popular belief, few buyers bring brown suitcases of cash over the over border). RMB arbitrage loans see a customer, in this case a mainland property buyer, depositing cash in the mainland subsidiary of a Hong Kong bank. Against this cash, the Hong Kong bank would lend HK$s for unspecified purposes (ie, typically through a corporate loan) in Hong Kong. We suspect some of this money is finding its way into the property market, even where not booked as mortgage debt."

I dunno. Look at the Halifax reports, and it sounds like plenty of folks are standing aside. How much longer will sellers be able to hold up prices before caving in, and cutting them to find buyers ? The buying enthusiasm which usually comes in the Spring will fade soon, and the buyers that are still there will be more practical, and the sellers may soon panic, cutting prices more drastically. /see: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap

I dunno. Look at the Halifax reports, and it sounds like plenty of folks are standing aside. How much longer will sellers be able to hold up prices before caving in, and cutting them to find buyers ? The buying enthusiasm which usually comes in the Spring will fade soon, and the buyers that are still there will be more practical, and the sellers may soon panic, cutting prices more drastically. /see: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap

GLD has been fully as good as gold (just buy 10 shares, instead of one ounce), with the added advantage that you can trade options cheaply and easily. The PHYS indicator on Wednesday has flashed a possible TURN, see DrB's diary. (It could get cancelled straight away, or be a false signal - But let's watch it !)

That's a nice chart indeed. But we should be aware of this one too: update There's always a constant battle between bulls and bears. Having said that, I am making good money on the GLD calls and bull spreads I bought back in Feb. QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 26 2011, 09:30 PM) : Gold "remembers September"... and is headed back (near there) An Old Gap from early October attracts the price THE GAP: 128.62 - 129.87 == QUOTE (DrBubb @ Jan 29 2011, 02:40 AM) I bought; Feb, April, and Dec. GLD call options & bull spreads UNQUOTE== == == Previously the resistance line stopped the rallies. But this time it did not. Instead we got a push through it, and on reasonable volume. Nice. But there's another channel high looming above, and there's something called a "Last Engulfing" candle, which we sometimes see after moves like this push up. (Also the reliable "Fitkid-Ridcule-Meter" is flashing an amber warning) Should I be taking profits near here? The next day or two may give some clues. Here's a KEY CHART I will be using to trigger my next move. And another Anyone interested in how I might use them? Check DrBubb's diary over the next day or two, and see how I get on with them.

Hmm. Where or where is the demand coming from? In the US, demand is shrinking. In times of economic stress, people move in with friends and family to save money.

Because it takes planning and discipline. Govt has pampered people for so long, that they have lost that. Selling the 1st car might help too.

Perhaps they know that, without a gimmick like this... the UK becomes Ireland. I think it will happen anyway when rates rise.

I have to say that the Builders Shares have already anticipated what I have called, "A SPRING PAUSE" in the Crash Cruise Speed. But I think they would need to go higher, above the 987d/200wkMA perhaps, to signal that something more Bullish was afoot. BDEV/ Barratt : chart / Data etc.: http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap'>http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap * The UK is storing up some big problems IMHO. == == == *Excerpt from the DATA Thread / http://tinyurl.com/UKtrap (I need to change the comment in the first post now, and so will use this): From a low in July 2008 (at 22p), Barratt/BDEV had a long rally into a Sept. 2009 high near 280p (184p- split adjusted), and then another downturn began. This drop in the share preeceded a fall in actual house prices. A few months later in Spring 2010 a second downleg in UK property prices began, despite continued ultra-low interest rates. BDEV continued to fall for most of 2010, but the rate of decline slowed and the stock bottomed in late Nov.2010 at near 71p, which was well above the Nov 2009 low of 31p. Then, a year-end rally in BDEV stock began, taking BDEV back near 90p by the end of 2010. In early 2011, Homebuilder prices rose further, with BDEV over 110p, suggesting a Spring 2011 "PAUSE" in the decline in UK-wide home prices. Will the house price rally last? I think not. The failure of the Homebuilder rally and a drop in BDEV back below 100p on high volume (If we see that), would be a sign that Crash Cruise Speed (with falls averaging more than 0.5% per month), is likely to resume. I still expect a long slide in UK House prices into 2012/13 or later. Next Buy signal would be: after the Builder shares break up above key resistance levels on high volume. The present rally has broken above some important MA's, like 377d and 610d, but with light voliume. So we cannot take a 2011 decline for granted. But from a fundamental standpoint, I cannot see how UK houseprices will be able to overcome: a rising supply of homes on the market, the probability of rising rates, and the imposition of caps on housing benefits - all in an economic environment where post-tax disposable incomes are rising in tiny steps, if at all. =========================================

2,700 flats coming on market - in April, trumpets The HK Standard "Meantime, teh secondary market performed poorly over the weekend. Kornhill, Discovery Park, and Laguna City - three benchmark residential projects in Hong Kong Island and Kowloon - recorded ZERO SALES." The new properties are: + Lions Rise / Wong Tai Sin : 968 flats (Kerry Properties) + Imperial Cullinan / Olympic Station : 650 flats (SHKP - 800-1900sf from HK$35 mn) + One Regent Place / Yuen Long : 337 flats + 8 Hs (SHKP - launched in Shenzhen) + Uptown / Yuen Long : 37 Houses (CHeung Kong)

So there we are - Ireland is being seen as a possible "cheap retirement spot" for well-off Brits. Will London one day be seen as a cheap retirement spot for wealthy Chinese? Falling property prices and a falling pound might do that, but not for years

Tears in Rain. Beautiful and more inspiring in times like these

LINK to this thread :: http://tinyurl.com/FreeCapQA . . . . . I shall read it with interest ! Here's the Summary: Are you interested in investment? Would life be better if you had no job, no boss, and succeeded or failed purely on the merits of your own investment insights? Free Capital gives an insight into this life. Based on a series of interviews, it outlines the investing strategies, insights, and lifestyles of people who have left the world of employment to become independent investors. How did these people originally get interested in investment? How did the interest progress to the point where they gave up their day-job? How do they spend their time now? Free Capital profiles a range of people who have made high returns over a long period investing for their own account, in most cases starting from small initial capital. A number of these investors have accumulated substantial seven-figure sums in ISAs. /longer summary : http://www.eason.ie/books/9781906659745 I am contemplating an interview with the author. It should be interesting to GEI members... The Book and the Interview Here's what one of our members said on the original thread, all those months ago: I noticed from the website & elsewhere there is a... BLOG ABOUT THE BOOK : http://guythomas.org.uk/blog/ Forum with some Q&A : http://www.sharecrazy.com/ubbthreads/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=478684&Main=478684 Amazon Customer Reviews : http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/1906659745/ref=dp_top_cm_cr_acr_txt?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=1 Original Invitation : http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=20450958 == == == (added later): BTW, I now have a copy of the book, and have begun to read through it, and discovered this surprising error

Some will have to suffer the indignity of seeing the house next door flogged off for half the amount they paid for theirs a few years ago. But for the lucky few who sold at the peak, held onto their cash and played the waiting game by renting, the moment may just have arrived when they feel safe to step their toes back into the property game.