drbubb

Charting the rise : HK$877 /7.76= US$113.02 x10.21 = US$1153.9 (factor:10.21/7.76= 1.315) HK-2840 /HK Gold etf ... update : 10d.Chart High: hk$932.00 (Gold-US$1,225.6 at x1.315) Low : hk$824.00 ($1,083.6) Chg : hk$112.00 ($ 142) HOD hk$ 879.50 ($1,156.5) / +55.5 / as %: 49.6% retracement A 50% retracement would be a logical stopping point

Maybe the Chinese decided to "send a message" to Washington, using the Gold price

Gold - just shot up $15 I just woke up here in HK to see Gold has shot up to $1153, maybe higher I will investigate... 1/ US Slaps Tariff on China; Gold Price Jumps Seeking Alpha (blog) - ‎14 hours ago‎ Back in September, I wrote a commentary in which I linked US tariffs against Chinese pipe imports to the surge in the price of gold (“Has Trade-War Started ... 2/ IAF strike kills three Gaza militants posed to fire rockets Ha'aretz - ‎2 hours ago‎ By News Agencies and Haaretz Service An Israel Air Force strike in the central Gaza Strip on Sunday killed three Palestinian militants, including a senior field commander, hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed a "powerful response" to any ... 3/ California Earthquake Good Practice for Tsunami Discovery News - Michael Reilly - ‎40 minutes ago‎ Saturday afternoon, residents of northern California were violently shaken by a magnitude 6.5 earthquake not far offshore in the Pacific Ocean.

True. And the "Bear Market rally" engineered by the reckless labour leadership, will just add some new homes to the oversupply, extending the future glut I agree, IRS, those housing benefit payments are truly absurd: The year-on-year rise, of almost 15 per cent, is the steepest for more than 15 years. In 2010/11 the bill is expected to rise still further, to £20.8 billion. ... Earlier this year The Sunday Telegraph revealed that housing benefits were paying for an unnamed family to live in a seven-bedroom home at a cost to taxpayers of £147,000 a year, while 550 families were receiving more than £30,000 annually in housing handouts. Why does no one complain about the amount of money wasted? It is crazy that those who cannot afford to buy homes are being taxed to pay the inflated expenses of reckless piggies. If I were a Brit being taxed in Britain, I would be wildly angry about it. (!!) Why not limit the benefit to what it would cost to rent a below average home

Laramide / LAM.t ... update ...is showing a strong close to the year 1.63 Change: +0.12 Open: 1.59 High: 1.81 Low: 1.56 Volume: 879,160 Percent Change: +7.95% The stock was around $1.40 when first suggested here, and traded over $1.80 yesterday. Volume is strong, and based on that, I would expect it to move higher News check later

Just bought: Jan'11.GLD-$90.calls at $21.50 This brings my Bull Spread back "into balance" eliminating the small short position No point in maintaining a short with this chart ... update If today's low is broken, next stop may be GLD-$100. We may see that, perhaps after a rally to GLD-$112 or so. It would be interesting to hear what others are thinking, including Gurus like JS. I may turn myself into a FOPP for a while. Having enjoyed the freedom of non-FOPP-ship thinking in the recent past, I am not going to ignore the fact that JS and his team have made many good calls.

Stocks (SPY) and Gold (GLD) are charting amazingly well together ... update It will be interesting to see if stocks slide through SPX-1085 just as Gold is sliding through its equivalent support (near $1090-1100). If it happens together, then we may see a powerful deleveraging slide in both of these together.

The global economy has not recovered, apart from a bit of a bounce from stimulus spending. The US and UK economies will go lower before excessive debts are writedown or restructured. We have another 2-4 years to go on the downside. LINK: to April 5th thread http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=110340 QUOTE from the first post on that thread: A Global "dead cat bounce" in property will soon be underway, I reckon. I make the argument for this elsewhere , we even recorded a podcast about it yesterday. For many, this bounce may give a last chance to sell, and reduce debt before the second leg down into a Greater Depression hits. . . . I really want to save UK people from a probable Bull Trap, which may will fall into, if they buy on this "Dead Cat Bounce". They will then watch with horror as prices start sliding again, when rates begin their inevitable rise, probably 9-18 months from now. UNQUOTE = = = = = = = = So far, we have this: They look rather similar, don't they ? If you think you can be better, Bateman, I am awaiting your predictions...

Why would you be banned? Did you manage to buy any?

WEAK LEADERS, Little Following (so far) from Canadian venture stocks (CDNX) Gold and Gold shares look very weak. Look at the heavy volume on those red candles (from yesterday) down into & thru the Bolly Bands Updates : GLD : GDX : CDNX : GDXJ : advfn-charts Those sorts of heavy fall normally continue. The falls have dragged the Juniors down - GDXJ is 16% off its top* (more than Gold.) But CDNX is mostly unscathed so far, only about 3-4% off its top. == == *this is consistent with another pattern - new indices often get launched near tops in those indices. (I can remember some of the FOPPs saying that the new Gold Junior index would help Gold Juniors. In fact, it helped some holders to unload near the top.)

All true, Jake. And I havent stopped worrying about those things. But just now, and maybe for most of 2010, you should be worrying about The EURO, and its future. That's what the Gold Bugs somehow forgot. They have good reason to worry about the Dollar, but they took their beady eyes off the Euro Ball. And now that ball may be about to crumble before their eyes, with the odd result that the dollar strengthens, and for at least a little while, the Dollar looks like a worthy alternative to both the Euro, and to Gold. And Sterling may soon find itself competing with the Euro, in a "race to the bottom."

Even Schiff is now Bullish on the Dollar ? "It is possible that the Dollar could rally" (he says after a 4% move) - not before it.

A weak Euro, has helped bring strength to the Dollar ... update Comment from Ken Rogoff: "Europe’s income is projected to fall a staggering 4% this year. Unemployment will soon be in double digits throughout most of the Continent, with Spanish and Latvian unemployment on track to exceed 20%. Europe’s banking system remains sickly, even though many national governments have gone to great lengths to hide their banks’ woes. Yet, ugly or not, the downturn will eventually end. Yes, there is still a real risk of hitting an iceberg, beginning perhaps with a default in the Baltics, with panic first spreading to Austria and some Nordic countries. One shudders to think what will happen if Europe does not pull out of its current funk. Certainly, Europe would lose traction as a badly needed counterweight to the US in world economic policy. Europeans may not mind this right now (one sees more Obama t-shirts in Europe than in the US), but they might not be so happy if a George Bush III comes along. Fortunately, Europeans will probably not wait so long to start moving ahead again." @: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff58 Where are all those posters now ("FOPPs" - Followers of Pied Piper), who thought the Dollar was a one-way bet ? Seems that they are Wrong-and-Gone, and GEI is a quieter, and saner place

ROUBINI -On Gold ...since gold has no intrinsic value, there are significant risks of a downward correction. Eventually, central banks will need to exit quantitative easing and zero-interest rates, putting downward pressure on risky assets, including commodities. Or the global recovery may turn out to be fragile and anemic, leading to a rise in bearish sentiment on commodities – and in bullishness about the US dollar. Another downside risk is that the dollar-funded carry trade may unravel, crashing the global asset bubble that it, together with the wave of monetary liquidity, has caused. And, since the carry trade and the wave of liquidity are causing a global asset bubble, some of gold’s recent rise is also bubble-driven, with herding behavior and “momentum trading” by investors pushing gold higher and higher. But all bubbles eventually burst. The bigger the bubble, the greater the collapse. The recent rise in gold prices is only partially justified by fundamentals. Nor is it clear why investors should stock up on gold if the global economy dips into recession again and concerns about a near depression and rampant deflation rise sharply. If you truly fear a global economic meltdown, you should stock up on guns, canned food, and other commodities that you can actually use in your log cabin. /more: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentar...ubini20/English

COT Gold Report Comment: / GoldWatch thread Hedgie longs have dropped back to $32.6 Billion as of Tuesday (GLD-$110.95), and on Friday GLD hit a low of $108.72, before closing at GLD-$109.32. Currently, I would take $27-28 Billion as a "Buy" signal, testing the old highs. 9.1201 12.01 117.38 126.00 169,647 492,593 68.7% 322,946 / $35.8 305,232 42.5% 272,417 9.1208 12.08 110.95 12X.XX 157,106 468,759 67.5% 311,653 / $32.6 293,475 42.2% 265,775 Week= Mday $-GLD swing CmLong -CmShort - Pct. - = CmNetS / L$.bn NC.Long / Pct - NC.Net Since a $6.43 drop in GLD was associated with at $3.2 Bn drop in Hedge Fund gold longs. Each $2.00 drop is associated with a $1 billion drop in HF longs. So a further $5 billion drop in HF net longs, may require a further $10 drop in GLD, giving a provisional target of GLD-$101. Using the Gold/GLD ratio of 103%, that suggests a Gold price target of $1030 per ounce, from this single indicator.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index up for 5th time, but cracks showing 24 November 2009 The Case-Shiller Home Price Index has increased yet again. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly increase in house prices in the United States. Prices are now only 11.3% lower in the Composite-10 cities and 9.3% lower in the more comprehensive Composite-20 cities than at this time last year. However, diffusion is breaking down. When the Case-Shiller index began increasing in July, 14 of 20 markets were showing an increase. This number steadily increased as time wore on. Case-Shiller reported in August that 18 of 20 cities showed price increases. When Case-Shiller reported in September, 18 of 20 cities showed price increases. Then, last month the number turned down slightly to 17 of 20 markets. This month the number really turned down. Only 10 of 20 markets rose in the data (for sales through September). That is not good. is this a one-month aberration? It’s hard to say, but clearly this should be worrying because bank collateral depends on it. Homeowners looking to escape negative equity depend on this. And renewed declines will most certainly have a negative effect on consumer confidence. /see: http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/ca...ks-showing.html Top : 206.52 (07/06) : 226.29 (06/06) - mid.2006 ==== CURRENT YEAR === Mon : comp20, - chg.% , CSXR , - chg.% , mom% dec : 150.54, -18.61% : 162.09, -19.23%, -2.56% 2009 - jan : 146.34, -19.01% : 157.96, -19.44%, -2.79% feb : 143.11, -18.67% : 154.61, -18.88%, -2.21% mar : 140.04, -18.68% : 151.46, -18.62%, -2.15% apr : 139.25, -18.08% : 150.43, -17.96%, -0.56% LOW may : 139.94, -17.00% : 151.13, -16.76%, +0.50% jun : 141.94, -15.44% : 153.32, -15.07%, +1.43% jul : 144.23, -13.30% : 155.85, -12.77%, +1.61% aug : 146.00, -xx.xx% : 157.93, -xx.xx%, sep : 146.51, -xx.xx% : 158.61, -xx.xx%, JULY= .vs. the Top : -30.16% : 37mos -32.30% L vs the Top : -32.57% : 34mos -33.52% (Max. Fall to Apr.09)

Please understand that I am not trying to SUGGEST that anyone "trade" gold. I am rather telling others what I am doing, and my views along the way. One thing that works for some, is to retain a core position (50%?) and then be prepared to trade in and out, with another part of your portfolio. But even then, I would suggest that you vary the size of your in and out trades, if you do any, according to the size of the opportunity that you see. If Gold rises with inflation, and "value" is now $1000-1100, then a part sale at $1240, is a better idea, than the same size sale at $1140.

THE MUDSLINGERS are still with us / (from a HPC thread) What a misleading posting! Anyone who wants to test the accuracy of my forecasts can just look at this thread, and the popular one in the Market Psychology section. You will see that I have been spot on with my (property) market calls since at least early 2007, as we approached the top of the 18 year cycle. Many others have tried their own forecasts, and you are welcome to do the same. Put up (your own thread, show you can do better), or shut up! Does anyone today recall the thread of Property Guru, saying the market was turning in October? And how about the others back in April saying the market was going to slide lower. It is not as easy as you may think. My threads have set some sort of standard, and so I suggest : try and beat it, if you can. We might all learn from a more accurate forecast. The only one I happily take my hat off to, is Spline who has a very useful website, with some tools that are a nice supplement to the ones that I use You are making a horse's-petoot out of yourself with an uninformed posting like that. But everyone knew that about you already from your postings here. I will warn you now the if UK house prices stay in the channel that I have drawn here ...then I will claim to have made a bullseye Market Call on the end of the Bull Trap rally. Let's see if HPC's bulls can do any better. Please do try ! == == == RECENT DATA M Hali.ns Na'wide Rt'move Delus% Ave.H&N Amom% AyoY% 9 159,818 150,501 213,570 137.6% 155,160 -0.37% -16.52% F 159,208 147,746 216,163 140.8% 153,477 -1.08% -17.66% M 157,066 150,946 218,081 141.6% 154,006 0.34% -16.69% A 157,156 151,861 222,077 143.7% 154,509 0.33% -16.37% M 160,869 154,016 227,441 144.5% 157,443 1.90% -12.55% J 158,807 156,442 226,436 143.7% 157,625 0.12% -10.99% J 160,686 158,871 227,864 142.6% 159,779 1.37% -8.11% A 161,930 160,224 222,762 138.3% 161,077 0.81% -5.27% S 164,854 161,816 223,996 137.1% 163,335 1.40% -2.53% O 165,430 162,038 230,184 140.6% 163,734 0.24% 0.13% N 165,617 162,764 226,440 137.9% 164,191 0.28% 2.21% D ? 165,617 162,764 226,440 Latest 164,191 L 157,066 147,746 213,570 Low .. 153,477 t. . Mar'09 . Feb'09 . Jan'09. Timing . Feb'09 % + 5.44% 10.16% + 6.03% Rally% + 6.98% H 201,081 186,044 241,642 Peak . 192,490 t. . Aug'07 . Oct'07 . Oct'07. Timing . Aug'07 % -17.64% -12.51% -6.29% Rally% -14.70% == == == Delusion Index : Rightmove to the Average (Halifax & Nationwide) Buyers are ASKING much more than average prices

THE MUDSLINGERS are still with us / (from a HPC thread) What an idiotic posting! Anyone who wants to test the accuracy of my forecasts can look at this thread, and the popular one in the Market Psychology section. You will see that I have been spot on with my market calls since at least early 2007, as we approached the top of the 18 year cycle. Many others have tried their own forecasts, and you are welcome to do the same. Put up (your own thread, show you can do better), or shut up! Does anyone today recall the thread of Property Guru, saying the market was turning in October? And how about the others back in April saying the market was going to slide lower. It is not as easy as you may think. My threads have set some sort of standard, try and beat it, if you can. The only one I happily take my hat off to, is Spline who has a very useful website, with some tools that are a nice supplement to the ones that I use You are making a horses-petoot out of yourself with an uniformed posting like that. But everyone knew that already I will warn you now the if UK house prices stay in the channel that I have drawn here ...then I will claim to have made a bullseye Market Call. See you you lot can do better.

Okay. I simply think that GF is overdoing it, when describing the motives and actions ofd those who might disagree with him. I am certain, he has no desire to harm investors- quite the reverse, I know his motive is to protect investors reading his posts. But I think it is a surprising failure of imagination on his part, not to see that those who are sometimes bearish on gold, might also share a desire to help others. I rarely regard those that I disagree with as have a desire or willingnmess to harm others (excepting, of course: Greenspan, Brown, Krugman, and Barney Frank), who are completely happy to harm others, if it helps them to gain or maintain power. So, if I have characterised those four properly, then I might also describe them as evil. I dont see JS as evil, just as an over-enthusiastic cheerleader, for a view that he holds strongly. However, there is a risk that JS will harm others, if he gets people to follow him blindly.

Here's the activity that GF described: anti-gold shills try to trick people out of their best insurance in this ongoing global financial meltdown every time gold retreats a little. These are the real shills. If he doesnt see that as "evil" (ie motivated by the desire to harm others), then how does he see it? I would be happy to use another word, but GF sees to be describing people he thinks are evil. I can assure you, I have no desire to harm others, except for the minor desire I have to see the Piper sputter his coffee when he checks the gold price on some mornings. That desire is no worse and no more dangerous than the PP's desire to see those who disagree with him as bear cubs.

Do you recall a guy called Paul Van Eaden? He was a popular Gold buy until a few years ago, when he saw Gold pop thru $1,000, and he said, "gold is overvalued." People got very angry and felt betrayed, when he started saying that he had a measure of gold, and at $1,000 it have run past its valuation. Now I think he was clearly right, since gold subsequently dropped below $700, and he became a gold buyer again. I suppose his valuation is something near $1100 now, and he may have found gold overvalued again at $1200. Blink, and its now back to near $1100. What do you think about this approach? This would give you the freedom to trade out of gold, and into something else (oil? natgas? uranium?) when gold becomes overvalued relative to these alternatives, and then trade back in when it is cheap again.

?? Who are you talking about? GOM I think you have some strange ideas, that anyone here can see have no basis in fact. I would be curious what "Vested Interest" you see here? The only vested interest is that we are consuming scarce fossil fuels much too fast, and that the future will look very bleak if we do not change that. So maybe we all have a vested interest in how this plays out.

I think it would be very dangerous to have a single point of view. Great, while the market is going your way. But I think a single view will eventually get those onboard trapped into a bad trade, riding it down, but "convinced" it will rally back at any time. If you are convinced that Gold is only going to go up, why do you need a site to keep repeating that? It seems like JS is already doing the job pretty well. How many Pied pipers does gold need? To call me a Pied Piper is beyond a joke. I dont have a single point of view. I have buy orders now on GLD, and no sell orders. And I have stopped selling Gold shares, apart from one or two. I also encourage people to think for themselves. GEI is more of a boxing match than a Pied Piper's site from what I have seen here.