drbubb

After a few hopeful wrong calls (noteably the BUY at Gold-$850 as the Olympics began), I seem to have regained "my touch" - But I feel drained and a bit scared like many here. It is worth recalling these feelings, since this is what it feels like at major bottoms. The best thing about today's trading is the HUGE volume going through. And I reckon the nature of this move- the speed at which it is happening suggests that panicky shorts are being driven to cover. That jump in lease rates was a sign the short side was getting set for a need to cover

(from Advfn) energyi - 17 Sep'08 - 14:49 - 47364 $799- howzat, D.? ============ Dummkopf - 17 Sep'08 - 11:18 - 47345 Silver pointing the direction for gold, gold looks to me like it`s testing the area around 770/790 which was support for about 11 months before a further plummet, still to many bulls itching to get back on board, including me, lol. energyi - 17 Sep'08 - 11:41 - 47346 it needs to power thru $800 to make believers those high lease rates may help ====================== (with reference to the TURN called with Gold touching $736): This thread was the GOLD CALL OF THE YEAR- No one on the RUG thread picked up on it, they simply didnt believe it.

the resistance is clear - the resistance is near

sure.\ banks borrow it, sell it, and lend the money to gold miners the gold miners repay gold and / Institutions that borrowed gold previously are seeing their borrowing costs rise, and that will encourage them to buyback gold to cover their shorts

sure.\ banks borrow it, sell it, and lend the money to gold miners the gold miners repay gold and / Institutions that borrowed gold previously are seeing their borrowing costs rise, and that will encourage them to buyback gold to cover their shorts

Look at those Gold lease rates - Sept.16th 1-month 0.7761% +0.3409 2-month 0.8209% +0.2379 3-month 0.8906% +0.2276 6-month 1.0520% +0.2607 1-year : 0.9954% +0.2646 /see: http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html This is bullish. Even paper Gold is getting hard to find & borrow. The big jumps of yesterday are noteworthy 6 month rates over 1% ! - we dont see that very often

Look at those Gold lease rates - Sept.16th 1-month 0.7761% +0.3409 2-month 0.8209% +0.2379 3-month 0.8906% +0.2276 6-month 1.0520% +0.2607 1-year : 0.9954% +0.2646 /see: http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html This is bullish. Even paper Gold is getting hard to find & borrow. The big jumps of yesterday are noteworthy 6 month rates over 1% ! - we dont see that very often

Meantime, VIX and VXO are over 30- levels that are often associated with lows VIX: 33.41 Change: +1.71 Open: 31.70 High: 33.68 Low: 31.70 Percent Change: +5.39% VXO: 37.40 Change: +3.79 Open: 36.59 High: 36.84 Low: 36.59 Percent Change: +11.28% /see: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=4141

Interesting points. I am working on a new article along these lines, so thnx for posting this

If the UK follows the UK, that old Logo will be amazing

DONE= another good forecast! China cuts key lending rate by 27 basis pts; deposit rates left intact - UPDATE3 09.15.08, 9:13 AM ET BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) announced that it is cutting the benchmark one-year lending rate by 27 basis points to 7.20 pct from tomorrow. It marks the first cut in China's key interest rate since February 2002, and suggests that authorities are concerned about slowing growth. The PBoC said it will also cut the 6-month lending rate by 36 basis points to 6.21 pct. The rate for loans between three and five years will be cut by 18 basis points to 7.56 pct, while the five-year lending rate will be cut by 9 basis points to 7.74 pct. Interest rates on mortgage loans are also being cut, the central bank said http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds...afx5423838.html

THE BIG BOUNCEBACK continues Earlier Today Updated Charts Some charts showed an Island reversal on Friday. Now Monday's jump retraces that OTP down This is beginning to look like a classic V-bottom is in place

BIG FREEZE coming? I reckon that there is a real chance that they will Freeze all of Lehman's derivatives trades tomorrow, and let the rest of the market continue. They they will look for a way to unfreeze trades as they are booked out. They will only do so, if a majority of banks have agreed to this solution

The Commercials are shift back toward a neutral bias

"No fiat currency has ever survived and when it does it will be catastrophic." ??? Sterling has survived for 1,000 years. What do you need; 2,000? 5,000?

Yes. That's more that a "creep", it is a nice bounceback into that $763-772 range That's a sort of short term OTP == == Van Eaden uses phony inflation data, I believe

Dollar is down. OIH is up, and Oil/USO is up on decent volume. I think Gold will soon bounceback, after filling the gap Ideally, I would have wanted to see more upside volume in OIH. That's the main disappointment so far

So far, so good ! Gold has survived the London opening without a slide, and for the first time in many days, is now trading above the previous day's (24 hours previous) levels See: 3-days Chart Let's see if we will get a pick-up in NY trading. Oh, and the US dollar is sliding back from above USD-80.00

I think we are getting the TURN here !! That's the bottom in Gold, Gold shares, Oil, and oil shares Here are THE REASONS: =============== = 1/ Gold has hit $736 = 2/ Oil has hit $100-ish = 3/ HUI has fallen to a OTP level of $260 = 4/ OIH has fallen to .... = 5/ Gold support is indicated at $735 (fibonacci 38.2% retracement of move up from $252), ..... and also at $731, the old Gold high from XXX 2006 - an OTP level = 6/ Oil support is indicated at $100 (and also $90), as I forecast many weeks ago = 7/ OTP support for HUI. ..... see the ZG thread on OTP's; = 8/ Capitulation was seen in the 9% fall in HUI on Tuesday, a HUGE drop = 9/ Several commodity hedge funds have announced closing, their selling pressure hit ...... the market all at the same time =10/ Valuations are now very cheap =11/ China (and others) may want to do soem strategic buying of commodities, mining and ...... energy companies =12/ OIH has made three lows on consecutive days, all near the same level, and ...... the latest low came on lighter volume. Now OIH is up on the day, dragging Oil higher =13/ HUI is was up yesterday, and is up again today (so far) I reserve the right to say this was a rubbish call later, when I see the close tomorrow morning. And, yes, this isnt the first potential turn I have seen. But it is the first support by a strong Fibo number (38.2% correction)

oil is making a test of $100 now I reckon we nreded to get this out of the way

HISTORIC Speaking of gold mining shares, the current ratio of XAU to the price of spot gold recently moved below 0.16--its lowest point since its all-time record depressed reading in November 2000. This means that if the price of gold is still in the low $800s a half year or so from now, while this ratio returns to its average historic level, gold mining shares and funds such as GDX will rise by 30%-35%. /see: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kaplan/sep082008A.html

Frank holmes is a serious guy with plenty of "skin in the game", and years experience. His thoughts arewell worth reading

I agree with all this. BUT the big drop does show the risks inherent in the "stay long, buy the dips strategy". I may say more about this later, since I think the point should be developed here

It makes good sense. They went way over quota to force the oil price lower, when Bush visited the Saudi king and asked for help. They may now accept a temporary freeze in quotas until after the election to see if they can get the job done- and McCain elected

TOO MANY "LOWS"? Here's another mathematical argument... Here's the "once-trod path" chart for the Gold Bug's index (HUI) ... update : daily That's a weekly chart (above). Yesterday's action was: HUI: 260.25 Change: -26.29 Open: 286.54 High: 286.54 Low: 259.52 Percent Change: -9.17% That huge fall brings it neatly into the once-trod-path The prior high, before the OTP up was: Dec.2, 2003: 258.60 and almost touched again on Jan.6, 2004: High O.D.: 258.02 HUI's ALL TIME HIGH: Monday, March 17, 2008 Closing Price: 505.76 Open: 514.89 High: 519.68 Low: 496.25 50% of that is: 259.84 HUI-260-ish looks like a great target for this move down