drbubb

Gold/GLD see chart The volume on this drop is heavier than I would like to see, It could slide all the way to $850, if we do not see a reversal before the day is out. Oil's getting tired, as I suggested in the layest CW radio

Forecasting a bigger drop in the UK than the US, I would say

This is rapid-fast "crash cruise speed" -4.4% in year... soon that will be: -10%, -12%, -15% or more y-o-y. The bulls are starting to get what they deserve for their: greed and stupidity. The prudent man is winning out

Thanks for those words Bob. I think the stopgap may work for at least a few days. Maybe we shoudl meet when i am back in london in late June

I jsut spent $30 for a stopgap, but GEI may die within a few days... Growing isnt the issue. Staying alive at all is. The guy who has been doing the hosting said he is losing money doing it, and he is booting me out within a few days. I have found a temporary solution, that will cost $30 a month. Advertsising makes maybe $20 a month. I can afford a small subsidy, but not $250-280 per month for GEI. Another possibility is to charge $3-5 per month, but I think that will kill GEI stone dead If I can find another better solution, that doesnt require me to learn all about hosting and internet, I will do so.

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National Home Price, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices. The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – reached well into double digits, recording a 14.1% decline in the 1st quarter of 2008 versus the 1st quarter of 2007, the largest in the series 20-year history. As a comparison, during the 1990-91 housing recession the annual rate bottomed at -2.8%. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also set new records, with annual declines of -15.3% and -14.4%, respectively. “The steep downturn in residential real estate continues,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index committee at Standard & Poor’s. “There are very few silver linings that one can see in the data. Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with 19 of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines, and six of those now at negative rates exceeding -20%. Looking closely at these returns, you can see that 15 of the metro areas are also reporting record lows, and eleven are in double digit decline, with Chicago being the latest metro area to join these ranks. The monthly data paints a similar picture, with 18 of the metro areas reporting at least seven consecutive months of negative returns. For the first time in as many months, we finally saw monthly price appreciation in two of the metro areas – Charlotte was up 0.2% in March over February, and Dallas was up 1.1%.” Las Vegas remains the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of -25.9%, followed by Miami and Phoenix at -24.6% and -23.0%, respectively. Charlotte is the only market with appreciation over the past year, returning +0.8%. /see: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/i...ease_052703.pdf

Junior Miners, as represented by CDNX ... are looking like a coiled spring

Time to Pick Up Juniors By Ben Abelson 23 May 2008 CHICAGO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- While the price of gold has taken off this year, topping $1,000/ounce earlier this spring, the valuation of gold miners themselves hasn’t followed suit. In an aberration from the norm, the equity prices of even the most senior miners has been sluggish over the past few months, with the level of the Gold/XAU ratio (our favourite relative value indicator) remaining close to historical lows. The biggest reasons for the strange action are likely the flight to safety to gold, and away from equities, in the face of massive financial sector problems. And while these problems surely haven’t abated, it’s more likely than not investors will yet again remember that gold equities aren’t just like other stocks, and rather are leveraged plays on the metal itself. In short, we’re betting that the traditional leveraged relationship between the price of gold and the miners will begin to reassert itself over the coming year. Already, the action in the Gold/XAU ratio has begun to get more constructive over the past several weeks, with many pundits spotting a technical breakout. Going Small for Success The best opportunities for success are to be found focused on smaller development or near-production plays. It’s worth remembering that there’s been a relative dearth of discoveries by all senior gold miners this cycle. With many of those same miners priced for growth, the consolidation wave for near-term production will undoubtedly continue. Although investors may panic every time the price of bullion drops $25, the biggest seniors aren’t looking at every 5% swing in the price of gold as they evaluate their buy-out targets. With relative interest in the Toronto Venture Exchange and other junior bourses near multi-year lows, and many of the smaller producers having traded sideways for some time, now’s the best time to get involved in quality plays. We prefer going a bit larger than your typical exploration play, to mitigate some of the drill-hole risk that one finds farther down the scale. Solid producers like Aurizon Mines [AMEX:AZK; TSX:ARZ] remain quite cheap, while near-term producers such as European Minerals [TSX:EPM; AIM:EUM] and Minefinders [AMEX:MFN; TSX:MFL] are trading at higher-than-warranted political and operational discounts. (European Minerals, a long-time favourite, has recently secured additional financing to advance through commercial production, and has merged with Lero Gold to add to its exploration package). Another great up-and-coming story worth looking at is the Peak Gold [TSX:PIK], Metallica Resources [AMEX:MRB; TSX:MR] and New Gold [AMEX:NGD; TSX:NGD] three-way tie-up. This “new Wheaton River” is the face of what could be one of the more innovative multi-mine junior producers to hit the market in years, assembled by some of the best-known mine financiers in the world. Investors obviously appreciate the combination, having bid up the shares of all participants since the deal was announced nearly two months ago. And, although one could accuse me of banging a well-worn drum, the Peak/Metallica/New Gold story echoes just one reason why I continue to like Northgate Minerals [AMEX:NXG; TSX:NGX]. While CEO Ken Stowe certainly lacks the deal-making flash of Ian Telfer at Peak, Northgate’s done a remarkable job of assembling a global multi-mine package over the past couple years, all while proving their operating prowess at Kemess South. Now heavily geared toward gold (instead of its prior copper exposure), I remain confident that this company’s shares will be a solid bet going forward as the company continues to prove nay-sayers wrong. == == == == == Aurizon Mines [AMEX:AZK; TSX:ARZ] European Minerals [TSX:EPM; AIM:EUM] Northgate Minerals [AMEX:NXG; TSX:NGX].

(an interesting event in Hong kong): Art Hub Tour: Jockey Club Creative Arts Centre Date: Saturday, 7 June 2008 Time: 10:15 am to 12:00 pm Place: meet at 10:15 am Shek Kip Mei MTR Station Exit C Centre address: 30 Pak Tin Street, Tel: 2353-1311 Cost: $120 member; $180 non-member Free for student with valid ID Enquiries: Bonnie Huo at 9193-6565 Optional: Lunch after on a share-cost basis Echoing the contemporary art hubs of 798 in Beijing, or Moganshan in Shanghai, Hong Kong has just opened the Jockey Club Creative Arts Centre at Shek Kip Mei this spring. Its goal is to be a creative workplace for local artists, an arts meeting base for the community, and hopefully a cultural landmark of the region in the future. A joint pilot project of the Jockey Club, Baptist University, Hong Kong Arts Centre and the HKSAR Government, the Jockey Club has donated almost $70 millions to help renovate the decommissioned nine-storey factory estate. It is now transformed into a complex where over 120 artists and art groups can rent at a reasonable price. The diversity of the tenants covers a wide cross section of art disciplines from fine, applied, media to performing arts. As one of the first groups to tour this new Centre, its Executive Director, Eddie Lui Fung-Ngar (呂豐雅), has kindly coordinated our visit to coincide with some festive activities there. Eddie, a well-known award-winning international painter, sculptor, educator and art administrator, was also the Project Director during the Centre's renovation. He will share with us the whole process of how a dream is brought to reality. For further information, please visit website: http://www.hkbu.edu.hk/jccac/ and/: http://www.hku.hk/hkumag/society2.html#hub == == == == == Jockey Club Creative Arts Centre The Centre will be operated on a self-financing basis. It will be open to the public and people from all walks of life can come to enjoy the art works and savour the cultural ambience. In the long run, the Centre will make its mark on the cultural map of Asia. Besides pursuing their artistic endeavours, artists and art groups resident at the Centre are expected to cooperate and share their professional knowledge with one another. They can also make use of the space for art education and training, and other art-related business ventures. /see: http://net3.hkbu.edu.hk/~jccac/content_e.p...oduction#vision == == == Works by Eddie Lui Fung-Ngar : .. http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:nnBxU2.../003-0026LG.jpg == == == The Art Hive / Jason's Creations : 2A, 61 Caine Road, SOHO Central Tel.: 9339-9921

GPM might be a better way to play it But why stick with UK-traded stocks?

May 22, 2008: Last call to board gold train at under U.S. $1,000 by John Embry see: http://www.BeEarly.com

Ambrian could be a good choice- the stock is building a decent base. But it is more an investment bank, than a mining stock, so it may be the wrong risk-profile

The Five Reasons Why Now’s the Time to Buy Junior Miners By Ed Bugos / Vancouver, Canada .. May 23, 2008 Gold could be ready to end the summer doldrums even before summer begins. The most relevant area of resistance in the way of this outlook is the 30-point range between $890 and $920. If gold can break through and find support at these values it will be poised to rise for the summer. With that said, I think we’ve had our seasonal low and now it’s gold’s turn to shine…as the most preferable commodity…and better yet, to become money again. Just writing that makes me realize how early in the game it still is. Who today would believe gold will become money again? Yet, at the top of the market everyone will. Here is the best opportunity for us right now… EXCERPTS: I believe the gold market is at a bullish inflection point — a point of recognition of sorts. Reason #3, the precious metal juniors have hardly benefited from the bullish trends in these commodities to date, especially since 2006, never mind the future. Lots of money found its way into the junior segment over recent years, to be sure, but this expansion in capitalization has been dilutive. The Canadian Venture Exchange (CDNX) has had a hard time keeping up with gold itself, and is at its lowest level relative to gold since 2002. Simply put, the juniors should be tracking gold — and right now they have a lot of catching up to do. The result is a widening gap between the values of majors and juniors. In my mind, that gap will soon contract. With that said I think it’s the best buying opportunity in this segment since 2002 . . . Reason #5, the next takeover wave! Many of the large-cap producers are priced for growth, and they know that if they want to sustain those multiples, they’ll have to buy or find reserves. That’s the incentive. Meanwhile, the juniors spent lots of investment dollars proving up their assets, and the market has ignored them. So they are ripe for acquisition. And, the majors have plenty of cash, thanks to the latest run in gold prices. /more: http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=6503

good plan. Fred Harrison would agree, I think. Where are you living now?

Right. Here's a writer who things 2010 could be the earliest year for a low UK House Prices Plunge Over the Cliff /see: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4256.html US Recession 2008, UK Recession 2009 - Housing Bust into 2010 Just as the US housing bust of 2007 has lead to the US tipping into recession during 2008, which is expected to lead to at least 3 quarters of negative growth, so will the UK housing bust of 2008 lead to a UK recession during 2009 as the UK housing market is expected to continue to fall throughout 2009. Therefore the Market Oracle forecast will be updated towards the end of 2008 to expand the forecast trend into 2010. Preliminary analysis suggests that UK house prices are on track for an average 33% decline from their peak in August 2007 to the eventual trough. . . . During the boom years the City of London as the worlds financial centre contributed disproportionately to UK GDP growth, and this growth has been reflected in the degree to which London House Prices have been bid ever higher. However during the current credit crisis, London will experience the deflationary impact of the lack of liquidity as bonuses dry up for city workers and huge job losses occur as banks and financial institutions curtail their lending. This is something that I pointed out as the eventual consequences of the credit crisis in August 2007. The expectation is for London's Credit Crisis to accelerate into 2009 on the back of the UK housing bust that will see London hit particularly hard given the extent of overvaluation of London's House Prices.

Bear move - while Oil goes on rising I have seen it before, but for charts, head first to: 1/ U / New Uranium : http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=6450128 2/ U / Athabascan .. : http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=11066645 3/ U / Tiddlers ....... : http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=16828750 (no charts yet?)

The Poll is a good idea. We can start next month. REmind me, if I forget Here's a chart / suggesting "not over priced"

To some extent, BB sees his job to "support confidence" where there is genuine reason to be worried. And JT, DM, JS et al. point out the reasons we should be worried. Which side is involved in a Con Game? Magpie, feel free to start a new thread on the topic

Clean Coal was the subject of this BBC Programme: http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/science/frontiers_20060614.shtml At a time when we're increasingly concerned about the effects of carbon dioxide emissions on global climate change, it might seem strange to be thinking seriously about coal as a major energy source. But coal is the fuel of choice for many nations, developed and developing, not least America and China. It's been estimated that at current levels of usage, global coal reserves will last for more than 150 years. However, if large amounts of coal are be to be burnt, science and technology need to come up with ways of making coal a more efficient, and less polluting, energy source. To learn more about how a conventional coal-fired power station works, Peter goes to Nottinghamshire to visit the coal-fired power station at Ratcliffe-on-Soar. The power station, run by E.ON UK, burns 812 tonnes of coal an hour, and provides electricity for about two million people. Peter talks to engineers at E.ON's research facility, Power Technology. They are developing new technologies that will burn coal more efficiently and, at the same time, make it easier to capture and store carbon dioxide. These include coal gasification and oxyfuel combustion. Peter hears from Professor Brian Smart at Heriot-Watt University. Professor Smart and colleagues have recently completed a Feasibility Study into Underground Coal Gasification under the Firth of Forth. Peter also talks to Malcolm Wicks, Minister of State for Energy at the Department of Trade and Industry.

Hmmm. Do you think we can get to such a position (oil less important) without a massive change in our "living arrangements"? I doubt it. As Member 100 pointed out on another thread, a huge part of US mortgage defaults is due "bad location" where what looked like affordable homes, require a massive daily commute. Now with oil prices soaring, no on wants to own them

THE BIGGEST ISSUE of our time...? Carfree Living consists of several parts: (i am adding to this list, as more points become apparent.) ========= + Own no car, or one "heavily parked" + Avoiding the need to seek scarce fuel for car, in times of rationing + A rich and varied "street life" within walking distance (& maybe schools too) + Effective public transport to get to work, school (if needed), and "play" (cultural and leisure activities) Compare to living in the "stranded suburbs" when the oil prices hits $250 on its way to $500, and so: A CRITICAL POINT: Don't even think about buying a home in the "stranded suburbs", unless the price differential is so big, you can sustain a move in oil prices to $500 or higher, and you can also bear future rationing. check out the thread on Carfree living/ Demand Destruction: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3197

Here are some charts that drive me towards buying Junior Gold shares Gold-to-Oil : looking very cheap again (ie. Gold is cheap relative to oil) At only 7 barrels, Gold is cheap versus WTI Crude CDNX-to-Gold : Looks like it is ready for a very serious rally from the bottom (I liked yesterday's strong action in CDNX, while SPX and DJIA were down big.) As I have said elsewhere, CDNX is usually a good proxy for Junior mining shares, but some of the recent jump may have been driven by the junior Oil & Gas shares in CDNX Have you notice the bullish move in RGLD, one of my favorites ... update Stronger than Gold (GLD), stronger than gold majors (GDX) Some would say "it's been a long wait", but along the way, I have traded in and out many times (buying below $30, selling near $32), making money each time. The charts have helped enormously, but my confidence in RGLD, and in the bull market in Gold have been an essential part of the successful trading in this stock. (BTW, I am now sell some calls I bought when the stock was $28, and holding onto the longer term part of my investment in RGLD calls and RGLD stock.)

I am still awaiting my SPX-1450-ish target, before shorting The chart target looks almost too good ... update

ART is imitating stocks ... Art price slowdown follows BID's drop//: monthly : daily Seasonal Art sales in NewYork lack spring - says WSJ Economic concerns take toll on buyers; asians prefer angst + Overall sales grew only slightly from last year + Records (for individual artists) broken while clebs raise paddles + $1.49 billion captured by Sotheby's and Christies is down from $1.67 billion in Nov. 2007 + Christies narrowly beat Sotheby's with $756.3 million in sales vs. estimated range of $670-$946mn. + Lucien Freud's "Benefits Supervisor Sleeping" (ugh!) fetched $33.6mn- record for a living artist + Sotheby's generated $742.2million compared with estimates of $622-818 million (( The Art market's grown fat, but now it's going to sleep. )) The wealthy are still buying their trophies, but: "Art experts are troubled by the drop in buying during the day-long sales of lower priced works." "The day sales are softening and the evning sales are thinning, and that shouldnt be happening." The dollar was the bidding currency, but "non-Western tastes are driving the bidding" "Brightly colored pop works fared better than muted ones."

We are in a B-wave maybe Jake Bernstein thinks last week's Gold rally may peter out soon. He went long last week for a quick move up, but if there is no follow-thru will sell on Monday or Tuesday. He wants to go long Gold in late summer /listen: http://www.yorba.tv/ Monty Guild (like me) has been talking about a rally from $850 to somewhere like $950-1000. After that, he could see a pullback to $880-920, and then a HUGE rally http://radio.goldseek.com/