drbubb

Makes sense. I think Top-quality art would do well in hyperinflation, until towards the very end, when: + Real wealth is being destroyed by mal-investment, and + People's investing focus narrows down to certain "preferred investments" (like gold, and the top stocks), where people remain confident, because these investments stay liquid.

MORE ART - is coming to Hong Kong 1/ Hong Kong International Art Fair - 14 -18 May 2008 Venue: Hong Kong Conference and Exhibition Centre A new international art fair for HK. See art from 100 galleries http://www.HongKongArtFair.com 2/ Tagore Gallery is opening in Hong Kong - soon US based arts guru, Sundaram Tagore (46), is soon to open a gallery in HK. This great-grandson of famous Indian writer, R. Tagore, will be opening his new gallery in a 2,000 sf venue on Hollywood Road He says "his mission" is: To create a global dialog through art, an he is aiming: + To be mission and vision-driven, rather than market driven + He will take local Chinese artists overseas, (rather than just bringing foreign artists to HK) Fisrt showing will be from Friday to June 14th: Five artists from the East (India, Japan, Israel, Uzbekehstan) and five artists from the West (US, Holland, and Italy) 30-odd pieces are valued at: US$50,000 to US$380,000 (HK$390k - $3 million) THIS IS A SIGN of the increasing seriousness of the Art scene in HK

I get your point, and certainly ypu could be right. My own "broad guess" is that the price of the work of famous artists, is often ... Directly Related to THE NUMBER OF BILLIONAIRES ... That number has been growing, but if it shrinks in America in a recession, then the price of art that appeals mostly to Americans should shrink too. Chinese Art prices have risen as the number of Chinese billionaires grew dramatically

Hmm. Looks like NZ led the US over that period. I cannot think why...

(There will soon be No "bulletproof" in the UK either): Bulletproof housing markets get hit The mortgage meltdown has finally gotten to Seattle, Charlotte and and other cities where prices had been holding up. NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Some of the last, best housing markets - the ones that continued to climb even as the rest of the country cratered - have turned south lately. Seattle, Portland Ore., Charlotte, NC, and Salt Lake City all posted home price gains during 2007, even as more than half of the 150 markets tracked by the National Association of Realtors registered declines. Now they've joined the losers. "What the numbers are saying is that the trend is broadening out," said Michael Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research. "[The downturn started with] the markets that had flown the highest. When the speculative bubble popped, those got hit first. These [bulletproof] markets are now getting hit for traditional economic reasons." /more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/01/real_estat...oney_topstories

Bulletproof housing markets get hit The mortgage meltdown has finally gotten to Seattle, Charlotte and and other cities where prices had been holding up. NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Some of the last, best housing markets - the ones that continued to climb even as the rest of the country cratered - have turned south lately. Seattle, Portland Ore., Charlotte, NC, and Salt Lake City all posted home price gains during 2007, even as more than half of the 150 markets tracked by the National Association of Realtors registered declines. Now they've joined the losers. "What the numbers are saying is that the trend is broadening out," said Michael Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research. "[The downturn started with] the markets that had flown the highest. When the speculative bubble popped, those got hit first. These [bulletproof] markets are now getting hit for traditional economic reasons." /more: http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/01/real_estat...oney_topstories

Turk has been talking about a possible Dollar Collapse thie summer. If we see that, Goldis likely to soar, and "go parabolic". So many Gold ebars about now, it could happen from here. But Iwoudl still prefer to see a retest of $850 on light volume

They may be billionaires. But buying at/near an important peak... ...relying on wealth and art advisors sounds like a great way to deplete the family fortune, not to pass it on. No advisor can "go wrong" advising buying the major "brand names" in arts. But now is not the right time. I reckon that the art market (like physical real estate) probably peaks 6 -12 months after Sotheby stock. My advice: Buy a young artist whose work you like, when it can still be ha at affordable prices. Maybe after you've made money doing that, you can spread out into brand-name art

Buyer sought for Warhol's 'Mao' says WSJ Christies is hoping for US$120 million, cashing in on Chinese enthusiasm around the time of the Olympics. . - One of Four 4 1/4 meter tall silkscreen paintings. Warhol kept this particular painting for himself, giving the others to his main backers. (Note; the one above is not the painting for sales. That is a smaller one. The one being sold has red lipstick and a gray smear below the left shoulder) "Experts believe that the price would set a world record for the American artist, whose popularity has grown amongst new Asian collectors." Prior record for Warhol was $71.7 million for: Green Car Crash ((One of four similar iconic images. Sure. But let's get serious. This is pure exploitation, of Chinese wealth, and susceptibility for brand names. And also the timing of the Olympics)) HK property tycoon, Joseph Lau, paid $17.4 million for a smaller Mao painting by Warhol two years ago. Several of the smallest ones (30-by-25 centimenters) have since sold for $2 million each, up from $120,000 two years ago. The auction is set for Hong Kong: May 24-25

THE RELATIVE STRENGTH in CDNX is encouraging. And some of my Juniors are starting to "rock and roll" New Island / NIS.v Good Close, on decent volume $0.26 Change: +0.05 Open: 0.205 High: 0.26 Low: 0.205 Volume: 381,650 Percent Change: +23.81% Saturn Minerals / SMI.v After languishing in the teens, this one has come alive $0.42 Change: +0.08 Open: 0.35 High: 0.425 Low: 0.29 Volume: 7,240,800 Percent Change: +23.53%

WTI just exceeded $120 per barrel in the Futures market

Good post A drying up of trading and liquidity in a correction in a BULLISH sign So far, it looks like the importand support level (and my long-standing target) of $850 has held

OIL is getting expensive again- or maybe Gold is too cheap A look Back... Will this forecast prove on-the-mark? == == == Previous GOLD Discussion threads, had ==== : posts // No. Hits March : 3,063 // 76,163 April.. : 1,464 // 48,577 Note: Posts and viewings have spread out to other threads, and we've experienced a correction in Gold prices A new thread each month makes it Far easier to find old posts. It's a GEI tradition. I hope people do not mind. If you do, let's discuss it == LINKS === a good article, worth reading. The Death Of Gold and Lessons from History http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4566.html

Here's the last part of an intersting write-up from Jordan Roy-Burne: "It is important to remember a few things. First, corrections always have three legs. There is the first leg down, then a recovery and then the final leg down. So it is unlikely that the current correction is complete. Secondly, gauging sentiment is an art form. It is not an exact science. There are many different ways to analyze sentiment, and the HGNSI isn't the be all or know all. Nevertheless, it has a good record as a contrary indicator. The most recent HGNSI of -17% is an important indication that, despite a roaring gold market, sentiment is quite less bullish than you'd expect. If gold declines further, sentiment from a contrary viewpoint is likely to become more favorable to the bulls. Conclusions + Looking for Gold to bottom at $840 from late May to mid June. $790 to $800 is a realistic worst-case scenario. + Sentiment, from a contrary perspective is in better shape today than it was following the peak in May 2006. + Gold shares will bottom before the metals and lead back up + Small and Microcaps (Juniors) will lead the HUI, XAU & GDX + Silver will strongly outperform Gold /MORE: http://www.safehaven.com/article-10057.htm his charts and indicators are well worth a look

Sounds like the buying is drying up, and it is only a matter of time before the sellers "on better streets" will have to cave in too.

Does he really that prices are only overvalued by that much? If prices can overshot on the upside, why not on the downside too? So if they are overvalued by 30-35%, they could fall 40-50%

(I had this comment via a PM on HPC overnight): minus 15% ! ... Yesterday, 10:55 PM I believe you're in Hong Kong so will have missed this good news...... ...Last night on the Channel 4 News estate agent saying ''LONDON PRICES ARE 15% DOWN SINCE JANUARY''..........The market's imploding!!!!!!!!!

Prices to fall more than they did in the Great Depression (ie more than 30 percent) ? NEW HAVEN, Conn. — An influential economist who long predicted the housing-market bubble cautioned Tuesday that the slump in the U.S. housing market could cause prices to fall more than they did in the Great Depression and bailouts will be needed so millions don't lose their homes. Yale University economist Robert Shiller, pioneer of the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index, said there's a good chance housing prices will fall farther than the 30 percent drop in the historic Depression of the 1930s. Home prices nationwide already have dropped 15 percent since their peak in 2006, he said. "I think there is a scenario that they could be down substantially more," Shiller said during a speech at the New Haven Lawn Club. His national Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index is considered a strong measure of home prices because it examines price changes of the same property over time, instead of calculating a median price of homes sold during the month. Shiller, who admitted he has a reputation among economists for being bearish, said real-estate cycles typically take years to correct. /more: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/busi...ingslump23.html == == Another who agrees with a 30 percent fall - good interview: Nouriel Roubini - "a 12 to 18 month recession" (1 of 3) http://youtube.com/watch?v=51SxmcaKJIw "Excess supply is huge... it is continuing. People are underwater, and will walk away."

EXCERPT ====== I think we are in an environment now when house prices are likely to fall further in the UK, but that the cost of mortgages to the great majority of home-owners will not rise much. So while the number of people who might have negative equity might rise substantially, the number of people who have real problems servicing their mortgage debt may not. For some people it will be tough - but they are likely to be a minority, which is little consolation if you are one of them. For what it is worth, some economic modelling of the forces driving the demand for and supply of property that I have done with colleagues at Morgan Stanley suggests that a plausible central scenario might be one in which the average level of house prices falls about 10 per cent this year, and by about 5 per cent in 2009. Forecasts from economists are two a penny, so no one should get very excited about that. It might be more interesting to note what futures contracts (derivatives) imply. I attach weight to the message from the prices of derivative contracts that are written on house prices - in part because that is where people are putting their money. Talk is cheap and there are lots of vested interests from those who offer strident views on where house prices are going. Prices of derivatives reflect where people are actually staking money. Derivatives contracts priced off the Halifax national house price index currently price in something close to a 10 per cent fall in nominal house prices over 2008 (i.e. around 8 per cent from the March level) and around a 5 per cent fall the year after. Beyond three years ahead, derivatives contracts imply increases in prices. == == I think the US futures showed modest drops like that a year ago, then got driven lower as the falls rolled on - I reckon you will see the same in the UK

BTL : there are lots of them the Financial Times reports. Buy-to- Let Percentage of all mortgages by area. London. London E 28.35% of all mortgages are BTL London EC 27.36% of all mortgages are BTL London WC 26.16% of all mortgages are BTL London NW 25.22% of all mortgages are BTL London W 24.72% of all mortgages are BTL London N 23.49% of all mortgages are BTL London SE 20.96% of all mortgages are BTL London SW 20.85% of all mortgages are BTL The FT says Canary Wharf feels the chill. Local Estate Agent Anthony Flynn of Morgan Randall says "Big investors just aren't buying in the next few years developers will be stuck with a lot of unsold property, developers who have not already sold will have to drop their asking prices by 15-20%". Looks like Citigroup with their 15% fall in house prices over the next 18 months is about right. /source: #39: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...30&start=30

Getting ever closer to a possible "pinch point" Markets often show big moves out of such formations

FOOD FOR THOUGHT - from the Depression 2010 thread... I am not sure what you mean by "money-related"? These are commodity-related equities, and their price (in dollars or pounds) will to an important extent depend upon the value of the underlying commodity. This is particular true of the major producers. But, as we have seen, less true for those junior companies that are still exploring for commiodities, and need to raise big finance before they can put a mine or an oil well into production. The Juniors are exposed to the conditions in the debt market, and are therefore a less direct play on teh commodity. To get a rally in the Juniors, we need to see an easing of the debt market, or evidence that the senior companies are buying the juniors as a way to "build their pipelines" of future projects.

You would have thought so. But on second thought, it wont be so easy. Many of those positions are highly illiquid, and if they started selling to realise cash, prices would fall, perhaps dramatically.

DECORATE WITH ART- suggests The Standard "whether a living room, bedroom, or bathroom. the existence of art is cerain to add interest to your home and can evoke endless imagination. Displaying art works will not only perform magic for the overall ambience, but it also serves as a way to reflect your personality." (Makes sense to me. To many HK flats have NOTHING ON THE WALLS. That's boring.) Cat street gallery - on hollywood road, is mentioned in the article: large enough gallery, with 1,000 sf. and nine (!) meter ceilings Nor running a one-man show called, "Screwed Up heads", by Rupert Shrive Paul Robinson, was another artist shown by the gallery recently. Robinson's work can be "commssioned through teh gallery", so this seems to eb something worth inquiriung about from artists, or through galleries

America's Worst-Selling Housing Markets Matt Woolsey, 04.15.08, 4:34 PM ET In Pictures: America's Worst-Selling Housing Markets : List ##: City========== : Ave. Price: chg. : Unsold : sales .1. Miami, Florida....... : $345,900: - 5.7% : 81,613 : 0.2% /mo. .2. Orlando, Florida.... : $240,400: -11.7% : 34,384 : 0.6% /mo. .3. Phoenix, Arizona... : $241,700: - 7.8% : 53,717 : 0.6% /mo. .4. Tampa, Florida...... : $201,600: -12.2% : 56,491 : 0.8% /mo. .5. Los Angeles, Calif. : $509,700: -13.1% 100,770 : 2.0% /mo. .6. Washington, D.C.. : $400,100: - 5.1% : 47,432 : 2.2% /mo. .7. Chicago, Illinois... : $261,000: - 2.6% : 72,842 : 2.3% /mo. .8. Baltimore, Md...... : $275,100: - 1.0% : 9,210 : 2.5% /mo. .9. San Diego, Calif... : $522,900: - 9.8% : 18,450 : 2.7% /mo. 10. Denver, Col......... : $230,100: - 6.3% : 21,756 : 2.9% /mo. Miami-area home sellers looking to unload their properties might want to make sure they have comfortable couches. It looks like they're going to be there a while. That's because Miami tops our list of the nation's most sedentary housing markets. These 10 spots feature a potent mix of dropping prices and sluggish sales rates. Also on the list: Denver, San Diego, Baltimore and Chicago. . . . In Chicago, for example, where the median home sale price in the fourth quarter of 2007 was $261,000, a 2.6% drop from the previous year, there were 72,842 homes on the market, with 2.2% of them selling each month. While this sales rate alone isn't extraordinary, it matters because Chicago's housing supply is overstocked, with 50% more houses on the market than two years ago. Prices, as a result, are continuing to sink. /more: http://www.forbes.com/realestate/2008/04/1...realestate.html