notanewmember

^Andrew Maguire is a regular guest on KingWorldNews Podcasts. He stands out from the other pundits as he has an English accent. http://kingworldnews...st/Archive.html Press F2 and you can type "andrew" to search the archive quickly. He is also part of Coghlan Capital http://www.coghlancapital.com/aboutus and that site has some technical analysis food http://www.coghlancapital.com/blog

Gold definitely appears to obey the 144D SMA moving average. More sitting and waiting. It wasn't my thinking...

The UK's "all in" ante at the Property Poker table.

I randomly come across trader blogs on my internet travels. Here is another one. GOLD UPDATE 28 August 2013 OT and CWT Members have enjoyed the rally since June/July 2013 and we are approaching our interim set target. The set target 1450-1480 is very close with Gold recording 1430 today. OT believes we should see within the month of September a pullback of the rally and we discuss the targets at a later stage. We shall take some profits and will re-enter at the appropriate retracement area in September. By year end we shall re-test the 1540 area in Gold ! http://www.objectivetrader.com/blog/ ----- If many traders see the same thing that can either be a positive or a negative. Negative - big players can fish for the stops. Positive - if enough small players play the move, we can move the market and play the momentum at key price levels. To note I'm still bearish (not shorting but on the sidelines) on gold until it can close above, ideally the $1800 area, or the £1100 area. Some people talk about the $1500 area as a key area - but why start buying back in a long term congestion zone....it could stay as a congestion zone for some time still - ensure that any congestion for the last two years is cleared, that is what makes all time new highs so powerful. A drain pipe will work much better when the rubbish congestion has been cleared fully....!

^If we draw a line at $26 - that looks like the 2yr support that has now become a possible resistance. I guess I would still be bearish, until $26 is taken out, and then I become neutral. At this stage, silver needs to break $36 to become bullish.

I dug this out from the depths of my chart folder. This website has removed this price chart as a selectable option now - I wonder why (?!) ^This chart is from a website that rhymes with Bimbomine.com Venezuela currency. I take gold is still banned there - but could you trade it on your computer? Who takes the other side of the trade? Who wants the Venezuelan currency? How would that work? What are gold juniors doing there? Are there any gold juniors? Who knows. You could raise your stop at every 1,000 intervals. But don't forget that chart has been divided by 1000. So in actual fact, raise your stop at every 1,000,000 intervals. One ounce of gold is 6,000,000 VEB in September 2010. Maybe the VEB is dead now and you couldn't cash out if you tried - remember the two way bet 50% cash out plan earlier I said about..... The chart could play out like the story I wrote a few posts ago http://www.greenener...220#entry279853 Edit - according to WIKI the VEB (bolívares) is dead, and the VEF (bolívares fuertes) replaces it! They give you one VEF for every 1000 VEB. Nice. Long live the new fiat! Well there you go, maybe that is the future for the dollar. http://en.wikipedia....zuelan_bolívar According to http://www.goldrate2...rica/venezuela/ One Gold Ounce is 8,409 VEF. In old money that is 8,409,000 VEB - wow. How many people on this planet have bothered to do this calculation? Raise your stop to a figure under 8,000,000 perhaps!

As the thread has livened up a bit, I want to hear how people are going act on the next bullish leg of gold when it comes in the future. There are two possibilities gold becomes a new base for money, or it doesn't. If it doesn't and it falls back down, will YOU (asking any reader out there) be holding it as it goes all the way back down? Or will you lock in profits and switch to other assets such as shares of decent companies, property or land? Lets say gold closed weekly at $1800 this coming Friday - that would be a nice breakeven point for a lot of late comers. Now over the coming months it makes new all time highs, $2000, $3500, $4000, the fever pitch is building to a cresendo. $5000. $100 dollar moves in a day are occurring. You hear about George Soros buying on Zero hedge. You hear about central banks running out of ideas as the next debt crisis unfolds. China as always is buying gold. The CRIMEX exchanges are out of gold. The Stock markets are crashing, people are jumping out of windows. Gold advances, first $6000, then $8000 weekly close. The investment banks like JP Marlin(!) concede and say they don't have any gold (that they want to give you). Gold penny shares rise 10, 50 fold as people clamor to get in on the action. The CRB index is making new highs, oil is spiking - there is an oil crisis in the Gulf. A mad evil dictator wants to nuke a neighboring country! Then the momentum eases, we see a weekly close above $9000. Silver trades at $200 an ounce. Could gold make over $10,000? We start seeing news on the mainstream media reports of how gold will be the next gold backed currency for the world over the weekend. The DOW has drifted back to 10,000, as not many people are talking about it, but they are talking about how one gold coin can buy a car. On Monday, the gold market spikes to $10,000 for a brief moment and pulls back. The Katco servers are down for the day as so many look at their 24hr charts. It never gets quite over $10,000. Over the coming days, gold sits at $9600. By Friday, it closes at $8800. The chat rooms talk about this as a pull back and it is time to back up the truck. Long lines form outside bullion dealers. Most are out - people are doing deals in the lines between themselves, as not all customers are waiting to buy. At the Monday open, gold falls back and drifts lower. By the Friday of that week it closes at $7800. A month passes and gold fever starts to die down, at the end of the month it closes at $6800. There is no announcement of gold being a world currency. The FED makes an official statement that gold will not form a base for a new currency. Western forces moves into the Gulf - Western Nation troops move into [insert oil rich country]. Gold slides to $2000. --- How will you raise your stop? How much will you cash out? If we don't know if there will be a new gold backed currency, then maybe cash out 50%, and keep the rest in there. Because I will assume there will be a two way bet that gold becomes money or not at that point. If it does, then all cash will pretty much go to zero. But by having plan to rotate into income producing assets straight away that risk is reduced.

It is true that gold is like any other commodity. It is when it is used as a speculative emotional football, that is when money can be made. I was reading about a company that goes and buys houses. But they pull out on the last day offering a 40% discount (story is here)- they have to accept or emotionally lose the sale. Wow. But I don't think I can be such a monster. If one wants to trade and make money - they must exploit the emotions of others. Anyway gold will have another run at being a speculative and emotional instrument. In a few years, I think it will challenge the all time highs. That will be the time "to go all in" and ride the beast. The world will be falling in, due to a new debt crisis, the end of fiat etc, what ever the emotional stimulus will be - just don't get caught up in it. Plan your trade plan now. Someone once said, Fortune favours the prepared mind. I think this is the case with gold, oil, or whatever instrument. Right now, I own no gold shares, and the only PMs are for the old 10% Wallstreet rule. I take comfort that I can move much faster than Joe Public - I will never be late to any party.

I think this is an interesting video - watch it all. He is going to stop buying silver, and pay off his debts first. There are a number of Youtube videos where "stackers" are holding off in buying mid 2013. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0xqxnR9ATs

In £ it is holding up reasonably well. ~I was looking at some 1KG Kookaburra coins but they want £550. It is that increased 20% VAT

If you look behind Mr Frisbys head, during the video, there are 2-3 cranes building some new build "apartments".

^Thanks for the link. An environment friendly to institutionalized speculation buys the politicians time.

This is from Freetrader PCL = Prime Central London One can see that PCL broke out to new highs in 2011, and just motored on. After the financial crisis, central bank intervention mostly benefited the elite. You can see the rest of us were left behind - the rest of us don't have excess money to bid up prices for property - prices have stagnated.

I think we are close to the end of this economic cycle. It maybe marked by the 1-1 gold/dow ratio. The US has been on a recovery, where the US leads, the world follows. They can just keep devaluing as before. Sure, millions will continue to be on food stamps, but so long as the rich are OK, everything is fine. By the moment the recovery trickles down to the bottom, it will already be another bust around the corner.

With the birth of the Royal Baby, Andy Murray winning the tennis,The Diamond Jubilee, the successful Olympics, the UK is just shrugging off bad news. The UK is going through a huge baby boom. Young couples will be further encouraged to buy a house. I don't thing we will see any meaningful crash in UK (we're talking London and the South East) house prices in this economic cycle. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiN-cNJxvN0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpQYgCxCF5c

I would like to say this is the bottom! If we get a weekly close above $1330 and you are prepared to wait with your investment, not a bad entry point.

Beach hut in Mudeford priced at £200,000. Video says she bought it for £57,000 ten years ago. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-23264052 I make that a 13.7% CAGR return per year! I used the CAGR calculator http://www.investopedia.com/calculator/cagr.aspx

£1295/Toz Gold looking better, if it can clear $1300, it doesn't want to go lower than $1200.

Yes lets hope they keep rising as I am a home owner. S*d everyone else. <sigh> I hope this house will be worth £500K one day, and I can sail off into the sunset. May it be the best investment I've ever made. I guess those billions of Chinese, Russian, American, Japanese are all queuing outside right now to bid on it.

Maybe some oil baron billionaires come across some tin foil hat website, and start reading about the end of fiat currency as we know it. Of course we know they will buy up all the silver and lose the lot. AS A SIDE NOTE; It is harder today though, as the exchanges stop people having such large positions.

I have been talking about trading from new highs in the last few weeks, and this is how one could play it. Well $180 is a good target. Going back in time I would wait for technical confirmation - after a new all time high in 1979 at $7 to go long. Not a day, or a week before! Think of the opportunity cost! If you look carefully at 1973, the same pattern occurred - a all time high was made at $3. Look for the mandelbrot fractal patterns!! In today's future run. I would wait until $50, maybe scale in at $60, and $70.

Further up this thread, I posted a DOW/Gold ratio graphic, where in about 1975 we saw a horrible correction in gold (the eventual top wasn't until 1979 where got it to $850+ I was searching for old Jesse Livermore books, and another one that was written by C M Flumiani was this in 1976 The collapse of gold http://www.amazon.co... Maria Flumiani --- Perhaps the low will be marked by a book publication!!! ^ The DOW/GOLD hit 1-1 in 1979/1980 From http://www.sharelynx...owgoldratio.gif Gold price 1920 - 2002 http://chartsrus.com...ixed/GC1900.gif Gold price 1972 - 1979 http://chartsrus.com...d/GC1976btm.gif DOW http://chartsrus.com...ixed/30DJIA.gif - crashed by 50% in 1975? Could it be that history is repeating and all we need to do is just add a ZERO? Are we going through 1975-1976 right now? So the top in this gold in 1980 was $850. SO CAN GOLD BE $8500 THIS TIME ROUND? BY about 2017-2018? I have done the same graphic with SILVER - look how it topped out sooner even in the past too.

$1202 right now - we are coming up to a potential pivotal point.... I won't be taking the trade this time. But good luck to anyone shorting it, you'll need it.

I take it we are looking at these charts http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html One way to interpret these charts, is by the way of percentages. If we look from 1968 to now, as a poker player, the probability of drawing out a Royal Flush is pretty low - that is 100 ounces can buy you a house is a Royal Flush and Jackpot time. However if we are prepared to wait a long time that probability of drawing out a Royal Flush increases with time. If one is prepared to wait a long time, we'll get a good hand. Poker players can still profit without ever pulling out a Royal Flush - they make many smaller wins over time. Remember according to the chart the "mean" is 269 gold ounces to one house. So Houses are getting cheap or good value in terms of gold right now, we shouldn't lose sight of that. Where are we now - about 150 gold ounces to one house?.