notanewmember

^ People are struggling - those who have to work to pay bills, and those with their benefits cut (which I saw coming before 2007). Those who own big houses with big mortgages, but who are benefiting from low interest rates on mortgages (as opposed to unsecured payday loans) are able to splash out on new luxury cars, cruises etc because of reduced mortgage payments. I have been cold called to come in and probably come off my fix to a variable mortgage which might slash my payments by a couple hundred pounds+ per month. I am mulling it over - and I may use the cash in a savings account to ride through a interest rate spike. I won't be buying a luxury car that is for sure! It is always interesting to watch others fill up at the pumps. To fill up a BMW 3 series we are talking about £70 a week, I don't know how people on mediocre incomes can keep this up. Fuel prices have remained at 133p level. I am watching a breakout to the upside.... UK retailers generally, have had a "off" Christmas; Namely, M&S, Tesco, Debenhams, Morrisons etc. More people are shopping online, but overall takings have contracted.

Fergus Wilson: The landlord who wants to put 200 families out on the street http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/fergus-wilson-the-landlord-who-wants-to-put-200-families-out-on-the-street-9052651.html Gemma Jupe, a 25-year-old single mother from Ashford, had just got home from hospital after giving birth to her second child when she discovered she was facing eviction. Her landlord is the now notorious Fergus Wilson, who said this week that he was kicking out 200 families on benefits from his properties to replace them with Eastern European migrants. Mr Wilson said coldly of his decision: “We’ve found [migrants] to be a good category of tenant who don’t default on their rent.” The pitchforks will be out!

Like the chart. For the dumbfire way - wait for the breakout first. No point in trying to pick a bottom. Anyway - it is easier to play the shares (but don't tell anyone!)

Why I'm Happy Losing Money as a Landlord http://www.dailyfinance.com/on/landlord-lose-money-rent-house-mortgage/ Author; H... C...... is a financial planner and the publisher of the popular personal finance blog, Money Q&A, where he answers readers’ wide-ranging money questions. He often writes about retirement, investing, insurance, saving, and other money matters. With a Masters degree in finance and years of experience, H... brings a wealth of knowledge and practical advice to his readers and is not afraid to tackle the tough financial questions. ---- “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people.” (South Sea Bubble Shares) Sir Isaac Newton 1850, English Mathematician

This was interesting; "The landlord … watches the busy population around him making the city larger, richer, more convenient. .. and all the while sits and does nothing. Roads are made … services are improved … water is brought from reservoirs one hundred miles off in the mountains and -all the while the landlord sits still … To not one of these improvements does the landlord monopolist contribute and yet by every one of them the value of his land is enhanced … At last the land becomes ripe for sale – that means the price is too tempting to be resisted any longer … In fact you may say that the unearned increment … is reaped by the land monopolist in exact proportion not to the service, but to the disservice done." - Winston Churchill during debates on the Finance Act 1910 From the comments; New Class of Landlords profiting from Generation Rent http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/jun/28/new-class-landlords-profiting-generation-rent

I think that would be China. All those newly rich and middle class.

I am thinking about ways about surviving, thriving and prospering in such an environment. There must be ways!

We're going Japanese where low rates and long mortgages are "normal". Perhaps high rates and short mortgages were a historic "luxury" and that window has passed - along with free university education, final salary pensions, jobs for life, etc! This is the "new world order" perhaps people have been talking about that starts in 2012.

I have no idea where this money is coming from. It seems the more jobs that are cut, prices just keep going up.

^Wow.... I left FSN at about 2011. I felt FSN was too focused on gold and got too much into detail into Mises etc, which is important, but what drives prices are the public moving in herds. The truth is important, but sometimes people don't crowd around the truth, sometimes they choose to prefer to crowd around lies as it is easier and more palatable. The media is so vital to the life of the current system right now. If you told people that money is printed out of thin air, they won't believe you, and carry on as they are, because the media doesn't say it. We maybe heading toward slavery and economic repression, but look around - are the majority of the slaves complaining? They still shop, they still subscribe to cable TV, they vote Obama. Emigration is invited so there will be never a short supply of cheap workers to create competition amongst the bottom feeders. We have not hit a low enough level to invite real change. FSN got it right from 2003 to 2010, but didn't get out when the technicals said so. They had trend follower, Stan Weinstein on the show, and he said it was time to look at getting out. Perhaps it is the bottom for gold. But not until bitcoin's run has finished and gold's techincals say it is time to buy.

I don't know if it is a double bluff or some speil to cover himself at some future date. No poker player would reveal their hand!

Funding for Help to Buy being scaled back, now Mr Carney says Mark Carney warns house buyers: can you afford the mortgage? Home-owners should not rely on being bailed out of any future difficulties by rising house prices, Bank of England governor warns http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/29/mark-carney-bank-of-england-home-buyer-warning ---- That's great if you've just signed up to a massive mortgage......or perhaps he has to say this for the record for future reference. Be your own look out.

In the US, home prices could fall as the economy can rebound better - they have the worlds reserve currency, the worlds largest stock market, nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, a degree of manufacturing, and innovation in silicon valley, etc. The UK is much smaller, and so if they can keep home prices up with housing benefit, and restricting land development via national parks, green belt, and Grade listing buildings we will. And it appears to have put a break on dramatic falls. However, the UK government has fallen back to its last lines in keeping the plates spinning. We have been and will continue to sell off the family silver.

I read Alistair Darlings autobiography. I can't quote it directly, as it has been a long time since I read it. But what I remember, is that in Whitehall, there is an institutionalised drive to maintain house prices. No MP will let house prices fall. I found an old post that I made on HPC; he writes how home prices are linked to consumer spending and therefore the wider economy. This is what I believe they are still thinking in Whitehall with the current administration. Ensure interest rates are kept low and not let the housing market fall (with the help of no heavy handedness with the state owned banks).

Online game - guess how much these houses sold for! (2013) http://toys.usvsth3m.com/howmuchisthathouse/ Fun - I scored 35%. Clearly I know nothing about price but a lot about value;

$2.19 $2 might hold if one wants to sit on it for a few years, and they aren't the impatient kind of person. Maybe stick a stop under that area. It did drop lower than $2 in 2009 so nothing is certain. I'd become bullish and be an avid buyer if it clears $10 in the next three months. But a catalyst needs to trigger in the gold market for that to happen. Perhaps we need to revisit a commodity investing legend - I remember Jim Rogers about giving advice on investing in miners, the concern with geo-politics in these early podcasts; Jim Rogers Part 1 2007 http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2007/03/15/jim-rogers-part-1/ Jim Rogers Part 2 2007 http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2007/03/15/jim-rogers-part-ii/

Silver £ At this point in time silver needs to clear £22/Toz to be bullish in the next three months. I am more Bearish/Neutral right now. If it drops below £12/Toz then look out for even lower prices. It is great news for Jewellers who can get their hands on the stuff, they can shape it and re-mold it, and add value to it, and extract more margin. Just like in the coffee thread the beneficiaries for certain lower commodity prices are for people who need low replacement costs. Gas prices have come down - but the 6 big energy companies love it right now, and they are raising the prices by some 8% - we as consumers have never seen any decreases. So lower commodity prices don't always filter straight to the consumer. There can be a disconnect that might never reconcile.

I've got to be boring but it needs to make a new two year high for the action to begin. That's closing significantly above $1800 at this point in time.

I can't see any reasons to be trading in any commodities long or short for that matter. To break out of this box, the CRB (commodities index) needs to clear above 330. And to look for shorts, CRB to break a new low below 270.

I'll shout from the roof tops when to buy gold (much more than 10% of your net worth). But the time is not now.

Bond girl and Buy To Let Queen, Fiona Fulleton who has been under the radar for years, is selling her house, and she is appearing on Strictly Come Dancing (with some other "celebrities", like Vanessa Feltz...). http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buyingsellingandmoving/10304539/For-sale-Bond-girl-Fiona-Fullertons-Gloucestershire-vicarage.html

I re-read the Wiki page. Mark Carney has been in around the Canada's integral finance operations for a decade - but he was not formerly part of the Central Bank between 2004-2008. He is an experienced money changer.

Mark Carney has been brought in to oversee and set up Help To Buy. He has been at the Canadian Central Bank in senior positions for ten years. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Carney This is our "Death Star" construction. He has already seen the plans of Death Star Number.1 in Canada. It looks like, it's not a new trick. You reprice risk, and you can reprice the asset. Easy.... ---- Help to Buy. The scheme in question operates in Canada, and has been in its current form for over 20 years. ....The policy has been a resounding success. Home ownership in Canada has risen from around 61pc to 70pc since the scheme was piloted in the early 1990s, without a housing bubble. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10250490/As-the-economy-gathers-speed-Help-to-Buy-is-starting-to-look-excessive.html There are two government incentives in operation to help home buyers in Canada; First-Time Home Buyers' (FTHB) Tax Credit Home Buyers' Plan (HBP) http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/buho/buho_008.cfm#FTHB ---- I think I might start a separate thread on Canadian Home builder shares, it might be another trading opportunity.

Shurely not!

Save this page; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election The terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 mandate that the election will be held on 7 May 2015 (except in the event of a collapse of government or a two-thirds majority of MPs voting for an early election).[1] --- What is the motive of the current Bank of England Governor? --- There are two things to find out if someone wants to do this. Find out the years of Mark Carneys (current Bank of England Governor) rein in Canada as the Central Bank Chief. Find out what happened to interest rates during that time and any government policies created (this will be hard) that stimulated or hindered home prices. We know the Canadian outcome already - Canada had a housing bubble during his rein.