Euro Chocozone Buyer

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2018/09/19/USDPHP-Price-May-Join-USDSGD-Descent-USDIDR-Chart-Eyes-Breakout.html USDPHP may have peaked, according to this analyst.

https://www.olx.ph/item/2-bedroom-unit-in-avida-towers-verte-for-sale-ID8tPAW.html?h=d922aeaea7 For turnover this SeptemberCash or Assume Balance (currently loaned with BDO) BDO also lends to Ayala projects' customers.

Can it (this) also happen in the PH? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-23/how-turkeys-lira-crisis-was-written-across-istanbuls-skyline Well there are some similarities. 1. What is most worrisome is that the BSP is totally behind the curve, and that lending rates are lower than the inflation rate, which could lead to reckless lending and explosive money growth. (and a loss of confidence in the currency). BSP needs to act and the sooner the better. I believe this was also the case in Turkey. (Turkey was worse because the central bank lost its independence but the core issue is the same). 2. """""" The construction industry is a prime example of that dependence. Much of its capital comes from loans denominated in foreign currency """"" I don't have the time nor expertise to go thru all the official filings, but exactly how much of this new construction is financed thru foreign loans in PH? Over Reliance on imports + construction being 18pct of the Turkish economy. Sounds familiar?? I guess PH won't be any better. 3. """" Up to half the buyers of luxury properties built by companies such as Kiler Holding were expected to be wealthy investors from Gulf countries, Bulut said, especially after 2012 when legal barriers to foreign ownership were lifted. But the demand from the Gulf failed to rise to the level hoped for by Turkish real estate developers. Now the lack of demand, alongside rising costs for iron and steel, has caused many projects to stall. """ Here one could make a case that it is the Chinese that the Philippine property developers have been courting. Every property pusher, from even Colliers to the stock salesman from last week pumping his Manila Bay projects, has been promoting the Chinese as the "holy grail". According to them, the Chinese are the ones who are going to solve every and all problems in PH Real Estate, but there's a catch folks. The Chinese themselves are now in big doo-doo. FYI Here is James Richards article. Prepare for a YUAN maxi devaluation. https://dailyreckoning.com/prepare-for-a-chinese-maxi-devaluation/ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ What should the worried property investor do now?? Any suggestions??

SMPH has a much stronger chart. SMPH is in a narrow sideways channel as of late. SMDC is the Philippines. Not Ayala, Not Megaworld, Not DMCI, Not/Nor any other property developer. It will be interesting to see which direction SMPH will follow now. The European direction which is down, or the USA direction which is still up. Time will tell.

They are throwing light on the Chinese BPO online gaming phenomenon. It is a different kind of BPO than in Makati/BGC where most BPO owners are Filipinos. Here they are almost all Chinese. They are directly flown in from China. The macapagal/MOA has no high rises due to the proximity of the airport. (= scarcity leads to higher prices)/ And then they say there is a need for "tens of thousands of condos" just to house these people. And it is also surprising that the vacancy rate in the Bay Area is lower than in BGC, according to Colliers 2Q2018. So as of now, still no train wreck. And residential rents are also approaching PHP1000/ per square meter per month, on par with Makati/BGC. https://rentpad.com.ph/places/breeze-residences/5089b36085 In another video the guy wonders if Property Prices are just too high in PH now.

Hi "Inflation chews up your lunch money" 1. Inflation in PH is currently at 5,6 to 6pct -- so even a CD offering you 4,5 to 5 pct return - will not produce a profit for you. 2. If Asia becomes a Turkey and we get a repeat of the Asian Financial Crisis, then CDs are a guaranteed money loser. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-14/forget-about-turkey-asia-elephant-room 3. Buying newly launched and almost RFO units from developers at prices that are 40-50pct higher than the secondary market is asking for trouble. But property, bought at market prices can offer some (- and better -) protection in case of a complete collapse of trust in the currency. 4. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-14/indonesia-s-tough-love-won-t-crisis-proof-the-rupiah https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-08-10/philippine-central-bank-still-behind-the-curve-continuum-says-video The strange thing is that while the real interest rate is negative -1,46 for PH compared with positive 0,5/2 pct for India/Indonesia, PH Peso is doing a lot better than Indonesia/India/Even China. (losing only 6pct against USD, while 7,2 for ID and 8,2 for IN) Apparently everybody is waiting for more rate hikes in PH. So the monetary policies of PH and USA central banks are very much the same. They are both tightening. 5, It is unclear how this will resolve from here, but I believe that PH Peso will perform and hold up extremely well compared with all other emerging market currencies. In fact, when the Fed will reverse policy early (or in the middle of) next year, or mr Trump will use the currency as weapon in trade, (the US Treasury has an exchange stabilization fund that they can use for this purpose) the US Dollar rally might suddenly fade, and Asian currencies, in particular, PH Peso might emerge as very strong currencies. When QE was launched in USA in march 2009, USDPHP fell from 48 to 40 in about 2 years. 6, PH Peso is still a safe haven for EUR investors, because while EURUSD is down around 10pct (from the early february highs) , EURPHP is down around 7pct but the PH yield tends to be higher than the USD yields, so "PH Peso" is still a safe haven currency, for the moment. 7. When PH interest rates will be raised again to 5,5 to 6pt in the coming months and the entire developed world starts easing next year, the stage will be set for a very strong rally in PH Peso and it might start as early as in the middle of next year. EURPHP has probably peaked at 65 early february this year. We will probably never see these highs again as Europe is beyond peak spending, and as Italian problems will come more to the forefront in the coming months. USA investors still have a window of opportunity for maybe the next 3-12 months in terms of the currency, as I believe USDPHP might be close to the top as well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-03/philippine-peso-fortunes-are-changing-as-bullish-momentum-grows Things are looking up for the Philippine peso after it suffered one of the biggest losses in the region in the first half of the year. The peso has outperformed all its Asian peers since mid-year, supported by increasing expectations of another central bank rate hike at the Aug. 9 policy meeting. Technical indicators suggest the currency has more room to recover Charts show that bullish momentum is growing for the peso. Spot dollar-peso has fallen below its 50-day moving average support for the first time since May 11. The moving average convergence-divergence momentum indicator has declined bearishly below the signal line and zero. Another momentum signal, the slow stochastics, also remains bearish. The peso lost 6 percent against the dollar this year and was at 53.13 on Friday. Immediate support for the dollar-peso is seen at 52.643, which is the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of move up between January 5 to June 27. “The break of 53 opens the door to a much larger correction for the greenback towards the 52.50-52.75 levels,” said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank Inc., the nation’s largest bank by assets. “This is supported by fundamentals. The market is anticipating tighter monetary policy after the central bank signaled strong action to address inflation.”

There are also updated prices for Avida Asten. According to this facebook page, the price per square meter for a 1BR flat in Avida Asten 24,60 square meter - PHP4,444,000, that's PHP180,000 per square meter. (in the previous post - dec 2016 - it was only PHP115K per square meter). https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=AyalaLand Hong Kong

1, Yes the window of opportunity has closed for the moment. it was possible 3-4 years ago, but preselling prices have gone wild now. 2, I read many messages on skyscrapercity and cap.gains taxes can be avoided for SMDC, Federal Land if the unit is not fully turned over yet and paid up 25pct to 50pct. AYALA prevents the transfer of ownership during preselling I believe. The only way to transfer it then is it to fully pay it but when you fully pay you must pay the CGT so AYALA is the only major developer where you can't do it. When you sign agreement you let the new buyer pay the CGT if any is or would become due. For fully paid up unit and turned over unit, there is no escaping the CGT in my opinion. 3, You just post on OLX.Ph . Had found a buyer. He very much liked the "disintermediation". No brokers, no middlemen. He was very happy about it. And he paid the CGT himself. OK many people are timid and afraid and look for brokers but there are people who understand that they're basically just an extra charge to the transaction. 4, Maybe the stock markets will take a hit and sentiment will turn. This might start at year end when the ECB stops QE in Europe. From then on we will be in worldwide QT and troubles will/might/could start then everywhere. 5, There are unfortunately also many other buyers who face this "dilemma" and have not been that as lucky as me, because I look at the facebook page of VIERA residences. And every 2 to 3 weeks or so, they have a newly reopend units. That building was fully sold 2 years ago. It means that there are still buyers who face this dilemma and cannot accept the fact that reality is different from the story portrayed by the media, and that they refuse to accept reality, because selling at a small loss is better than selling at a 50pct loss in case of Maceda Law or even 100pct loss, depending on the contract they have with DMCI. Sad but it is the reality. https://www.facebook.com/vieraresidencesdmcihomes/?hc_ref=ARQRPlxOXZqeD3086_hWh2u1PwCVU04UAih_gAZX5ZrOxMDgazNY21_MA0WcMQPKsI8&fref=nf 6, The people who bought preselling 2-3-4 years ago and saw the developers raising their prices still have a chance to avoid paying the lumpsum by offering their units at the original prices, or in the worst case, at a very minimal loss, but I am very afraid of the people who have bought late 2016-2017 and now. I am afraid that the option of getting their money back will be slim. Only MACEDA law could protect these people because theoretically they can claim 50pct of the investment back.

https://rentpad.com.ph/short-term-rentals/pasay/1br-condo-in-breeze-residences-pasay-for-rent/523beb7f81&cl=1 Below is a picture of the 1BR flat 27square meter that is managed by my property manager FYI. https://www.olx.ph/item/1-bedroom-condo-in-roxas-boulevard-breeze-residences-for-rent-ID8i4Ux.html?h=b567049911 Over 3000 views for this ads... this is record breaking in terms of views. FYI

FAULTY REASONING, DR bubb "" Suppose a buyer agreed to pay P 4million for 1 BR property, and they see the developer selling "reopened" units atP 6million, and they are thinking it should be easy to resell at P5 million or more. At 5 million, after a 5%commission, and 6% in capital gains taxes - ie P 440k in transaction costs - the owner would have a P 560k,or 14% gain on their original cost. That is not very exciting. Moreover, if they cannot sell at P5 Million, andhave to accept a price below P 4.5 Million, they may be stuck with a loss, when they were expecting a bigprofit. "" If the property was worth PHP4Million, and the original buyer has paid up PHP1Million, and he would be able to sell at a 1MIllion profit, - provided he did it himself and avoided expensive middle man - and he was able to avoid cap gains taxes, -- or has a contract written that forces the buyer to pay those taxes if they are due -- then he has made 100pct profit, NET. And I have seen some people make this kind of profit in the bay area. It is very attractive. Only in the Bay Area you can do it. And i swear by the Lord that it is the reality. I even have some experience by the way. When i visited a copy center I saw other papers of units of Anchor Land, that were sold in a similar way. Now I don't know about the profit, but I know a lawyer who handles those kinds of transactions, and some people walk away with big profits. YEAH, the dilemma that those people face is that they invested in the wrong area. Period.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hedgefunds-deliveringalpha-marks/oaktrees-marks-bullish-on-emerging-market-stocks-real-estate-debt-idUSKBN1K82OI " real-estate debt " These guys want to invest in real estate debt...

Office space is growing also rapidly in the bay area. From 180K square meters in 2014 to 400K in 2017 to 930K in 2021. So there will be offices and people who work in office can fill the vacancies of the newly built condos over there. 20pct of all property transactions in 1H2018 in NCR were in the bay area. (according to colliers) Connectivity seems to be improving. "So manila bay, not just for gamblers or gaming companies, and not just for government offices, but also for commercial and office spaces as well"... That 's what the lady concluded.

There are too many cheapskates around. There is one interested buyer for a breeze residences condo studio unit. He only wants to pay PHP3,4million including everything. https://www.olx.ph/item/looking-for-condo-at-breeze-residences-ID8pP2E.html?h=173cbba9f5&utm_source=Opt_Homepage_Var_0&utm_medium=Ad_Clicks&utm_campaign=Phase_2 And the are many sellers for these condo's. Some want PHP4,3Million, some want PHP5 Million, some private owners even want PHP6 Million but their ads are have been advertised for a very long time. So few takers.

https://rentpad.com.ph/places/san-lorenzo-place/4d0bdfc669 Rental rates appear to be very strong now in San Lorenzo Place. On Rentpad around 10 units are listed for rental and the average rental price per square meter is around PHP900 to PHP1050 per square meter. This is substantially higher than the PHP770 as being portrayed on the dotproperty.com.ph website, so rents appear to have increased dramatically in value here recently. It might have something to do with the location only, because the finishing of these units is just so so. https://www.dotproperty.com.ph/condo/594/san-lorenzo-place Dot property mentions a gross rental yield of 6,6pct but if current rents are an indication, then for those original buyers, gross rental yield might be close to 9,5 to 10 pct. F.I. for an 38 square meter flat, the original purchase price was 4.6Million + 0,3Million other charges 4,9Million. Rental yield PHP38,000 x 12 = PHP456,000 Gross rental yield is 9,3pct. Just an observation. I don't know about Avida San Lorenzo but SLP rents are very high now.

https://www.rappler.com/business/206203-residential-real-estate-price-index-q1-2018 Housing prices rise by 2.1% in Q1 2018 In the 1st quarter of 2018, there was a 13.8% increase in the prices of townhouses and a 2% increase in the prices of condominium units, says the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas . . . In the 1st quarter of 2018, there was a 13.8% increase in the prices of townhouses and a 2% increase in the prices of condominium units. In contrast, prices of single detached housing units declined slightly by 0.6%. For Metro Manila alone, the average residential property prices increased by 2.7% compared to year-ago prices. "The higher growth in prices of condominium units, townhouses, and duplexes offset the decline in prices of single detached houses," according to the BSP. There were 7 regions that accounted for 95.7% of total housing loans granted by banks: Metro Manila - 48.3% Calabarzon - 25.5% Central Luzon - 7.1% Central Visayas - 5.5% Western Visayas - 4.3% Davao Region - 3.2% Northern Mindanao - 1.8%

2 Hours delays are becoming the norm in Ninoy Aquino Airport. (especially the late in the evening) Last year missed my connecting Guangzhou-to Frankfurt flight due to a 2 hour delay in Ninoy Airport. Was redirected to Amsterdam. (via China Southern) This year missed my connecting direct HongKong to Brussels flight due to a 2,5 hour delay in Ninoy Airport. (also due to late arrival of the Cathay Pacific flight, so even HK international airport now has frequent 1hour delays to MNL). Was redirected to London, then to Brussels. Lesson learned. Plan at least 4 hours connecting time - 2 to 2,5 hours for the delays and 1 to 1,5 hours for the transfer in the connecting airport.

A warning signal This article was written early 2016 and that is just before we saw the dramatic price increases in places like the bay, bgc """"""""""""""""""""""""" In many cases apartments are not old, and are selling for millions below what they bought for from the developer https://theexpatangle.com/aroundtown/manila-property-market-to-buy-or-not-to-buy/ """"""""""""""""""""

http://www.atayala.com/sellers-article/2017-02-02/philippine-real-estate-in-a-bubble No reason to worry according to the author of this article...

http://www.property-report.com/detail/-/blogs/rising-townhouse-and-condo-prices-buoy-the-philippines-real-estate-ind-4 I know the BSP data is a "lagging" indicator, but again we see the words "dramatic" price increase in 4Q 2017 in this article.

It is better to wait until prices have fallen 20pct according to this guy. Timing is everything.

But there is also a danger in my line of reasoning. While everywhere in the developed and developing world, life expectancy is RISING, IN the USA life expentancy - especially for most while males is declining - due to drug use, opiod, depression and alcohol -- and thus many baby boomers might not live until the age of 65.

Not so fast, Dr Bubb. Harry Dent talks about real estate investment dynamics, but then suddenly we found out he has bought a VACATION home in Puerto Rico. And he is apparently following the "GREATER FOOL" theory. I mean, i haven't seen any information in this video about the SUPPLY of vacation homes in Puerto Rico, and I can only conclude that the reason why he has made this investment is because there are going to be more people buying vacation homes -- there is a second wave of people who buy vacation homes and peak at the age of 65 --. And VOILA, here you have it. And I have seen BABY BOOMERS in Breeze Residences. Especially American Baby boomers, and I have seen them in the sales offices of Avida Land and other places, and lo and behold, the number of people reaching the age of 65 is going to increase until 1961+65 = 2026 for American Baby Boomers and 1964+65 for European Baby Boomers = 2030 (Thailand will be Europe's favorite while PH will be an American vacation land). (This is the reason why Thailand will become the most prosperous nation by 2030 -- because the traditional spending wave only looks at domestic spending, and Thais births peaked like Europe-China's birth peak -- but I take into account INTERNATIONAL SPENDING) So the theory goes something like this. MOAR baby boomers vacation home buying peaking at age 65 and this trend rising until 2026 for PH, MOAR fools . And MOAR fools leads to "GREATER" fools and GREATER fools leads to HIGHER PRICES. In any case, BABY BOOMERS, and for PH especially, American Baby Boomers are going to minimize and mitigate the effects of a supply shock coming to the Bay Area. Therefore I do not expect a 50pct retracement. We might see a slight cooling of the market but as MNL becomes one of the most densly populated areas in the world, the ECB is confident American Baby Boomers will step in and prevent a melt down. Agreed, SMDC is a proxy for the Entire Philippines. SMDC is especially concentrated in VACATION homes. I still expect 27sq meter Breeze units official SMDC price to reach PHP7M by year end. And that's the offical price which is totally decoupled from the secondary market. The stock market is not always a good indicator of the real estate market. 2007-2009 proved that. The stock market fell 50pct but real estate indexes were down only 4-5pct. Normally that loss can be overcome with rental proceeds. The stock market would have to fall more than 50pct for it to have any meaningful impact on PH property prices. I still expect the BSP index for 1Q 2018 to be up as I have only seen price increases with most developers. http://systemisbroken.blogspot.com/2018/02/bsps-reserve-requirement-ratio-cut-is.html In this article you see the stock market index and the property index, and stocks are far more volatile than RE.