Euro Chocozone Buyer

http://systemisbroken.blogspot.com/2017/08/philippine-house-prices-hit-new-peak.html Excerpt: From 2004 to the present, the Philippine House Price Index has climbed much faster than inflation. The gap between current house prices and house prices adjusted for inflation stands at its highest ever, 66.52% This I can understand, but please explain what he means with sales volume??? Is it licenses for the construction of new buildings?? Or is it the combined number of transactions in the primary and secondary market?? I would rather think the opposite. If upcoming future new primary sales will be so much reduced, then prices are likely headed higher, now lower?? What am I missing here?? So the system is not broken this time, and also not for Avida buyers in BGC, so maybe the pain will start in the 4Q of 2017???

But there's also a warning in that article. Is this sustainable??????????? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-25/duterte-s-vice-u-turn-proves-a-game-changer-for-stocks Excerpt: "" And here's the thing about gambling money: It can leave as fast as it comes. Given that Philippine casinos have been implicated in Chinese money laundering, the risk of a reversal may not be negligible. Investors will have to hope that the online gaming boom isn't just a passing windfall.

What's up with Empire East????? Why are they able to charge almost 80pct to 90pct per square meter more than similar Avida San Lorenzo/Trevi?? For the 38sq m RFO units, the selling price is 5,560 Million excl VAT, and VAT is 12pct, but they give a 10discount, so the price is close to 5,6 Million incl VAT. That s approximately PHP148,000 per square meter, and this is not even the center of Makati. This is extremely expensive. And what I find strange. They are holding lotteries. So many buyers there appear to be. Or is this just another marketing trick??? +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=empire%20east%20brokers%20network THE LONG WAIT IS OVER!! Empire East will release newly opened units in SAN LORENZO PLACE tomorrow, August 25. Drawlots will be held in our Makati Head Office at exactly 10.30am. Registration starts from 9am up to 10am only. TOWER 2 - RFO Units (2BR - 38sqm) SLP T2 9P SLP T2 12G Selling Price (VAT-Exc.) P5,560,000.00 TERM: 5% DP - 15% in 24mos - 80% Balance thru Cash or Bank Financing TOWER 3 - for turnover on 2018 (4Q) 2BR - 38sqm: SLP T3 10E SLP T3 11B SLP T3 15E SLP T3 30B Selling Price (VAT-Exc.) P5,256,000.00 Term: 20% in 36mos - 80% Balance thru cash or Bank Financing 2BR - 44sqm: SLP T3 32C SLP T3 19D Selling Price (VAT-Exc.) P6,078,000.00 Term: 20% in 36mos - 80% Balance thru cash or Bank Financing We offer 10% PROMO DISCOUNT for all these units. For more details, kindly contact our Broker's Hotline at 0917 858 4823. Guidelines: 1.) Reservation Fee must be in the form of Cash (25k). 2.) Transferring of unit is not allowed. 3.) Change name request shall not be entertained. 4.) Post-Dated Checks must be given to qualify for move-in in RFO units. HAPPY SELLING!! ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ A similar situation exists for their Boni/Pioneer Woodlands projects, where the average preselling price per square meter was recently raised to around PHP122,000 per square meter, while neigboring Gateway Garden Heights, a Robinsons Land development, has ready for occupancy units costing approximately 75K to 80K per square meter. https://www.facebook.com/Robinsons-Quality-Condos-1676280229352936/?hc_ref=ARSHPgYzfpF68Uvvt_RQvO-hew_3L_h9XaCL5VeG5DezZYCAeb-ZzRUA2pIgoZVMWJA Available Units: 52sqm 3.6m 54sqm 3.8m 73sqm 5.3m 87sqm 6.2m 91sqm 6.6m +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Note: this is a much better deal than Kai Garden Residences IMO. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ A direct MRT connection can justify a 15 to 20pct premium to the market price, but not 60pct to 70pct higher as we are seeing now. Emp East appears to be a well oiled marketing machine. As always, selling these units on the secondary market -- with a decent profit -- might become a little problematic

More Resale offers, from the secondary market Don Bosco with its sports field & Trevi's Three towers are on the right ....................... : Avida San Lorenzo, Tower 1 is in the center Trevi http://www.greatancheta.com/2017/08/1-bedroom-32-sqm-at-laureano-di-trevi.html Laureano di Trevi Towers, Vista Residences, across Don Bosco Makati 1 Bedroom : Unit area: 32 sqm Asking: Php 2.8M That's about PHP87,500 per square meter, not bad. Avida SanLo http://www.greatancheta.com/2016/11/condo-for-sale-studio-tower-1-avida.html (avida san lorenzo) Avida Towers San Lorenzo, Tower 1 Studio : Floor area: 22.08sqm | Semi-furnished View: Amenities, Makati CBD, Waltermart Selling Price: 2.3M (Save 200k) which is about PHP104,500 per square meter.

Excerpt: "" For most people, your best option is to wait for a pullback in the market. Either that or buy property in a country growing just as fast but with more reasonable prices. Real estate in the Philippines is simply too expensive compared to its neighbors and stage of development. "" http://www.investasian.com/countries/investing-in-philippines/ http://www.investasian.com/blog/asia-cheapest-places-buy-real-estate/ Second excerpt "" But we probably won’t see a collapse. This is because the Philippine economy is among the fastest growing in the region, climbing by an impressive 6.9% in 2016. Foreign investors, especially the Chinese, should help soak up excess demand. Either way, the Philippines’ real estate market (or at the very least Manila’s) has more modest days ahead. This is one case where comparatively low prices don’t equal a bargain. '''' http://www.investasian.com/invest-asian-index/ +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ (ECB comment:) This advisor is strongly biased towards Cambodia -- and let's face it, Cambodia has the same demographic profile as PH. But his analysis of the market is doubtful. He assigns Cambodia a top rating for its yield because you can buy old buildings in Phong Pheng where you can get a 8-10 pct yield. But how can you move funds into Cambodia?? Cambodia does not have an international remittance network like PH. And I am sure if you buy second hand properties in MNL or elsewhere in PH, that you can also get a much higher rental yield. So PH still has top ratings, despite the recent 8 year bull run. And a pullback might come and is even necessary and healthy after a bull run, and a plateau. And new construction in Phong Pheng, I guess, will also set you back for around USD2,000-3,000 per square meter and wages are perhaps lower in Cambodia than PH.

Excerpt: "" Majority of condominiums with the highest rental yields in Metro Manila come from DMCI. http://www.dmciresidences.com.ph/whats-new/do-you-also-believe-that-dmci-is-the-best-condominium-developer-in-the-philippines That's probably true for projects launched 2-3-4-5 years ago when DMCI was still cheap, but DMCI has gotten a lot more expensive now, so whether the new DMCI investors of today are going to get an as good yield as the previous DMCI investors - remains to be seen.

Well he forgot DMCI, because DMCI H1 2017 reservation sales up a staggering 80pct. This is an indication that more wealth is concentrated in the middle class. The middle class is growing by leaps and bounds in PH. Kai Garden's first building is almost 80pct sold, one week after launch. All 1BR units - 93k to 85k per square meter - are sold out now. Brixtons Place was their best project in terms of sales performance ever, I read somewhere. http://business.inquirer.net/235172/dmci-homes-h1-reservation-sales-80

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-23/biggest-philippine-manager-keeps-faith-on-pricey-property-stocks Many "golden" crosses on PH real estate stocks instead of numerous hindenburg omens in the rest of the world

And now I am also seeing ads for the Admiral Grandsuites, which is the neigbouring tower. (also from Anchor Land Holdings Inc) And it is definitely not cheap, -- at about PHP155,000 per square meter -- during the launch phase. How high will it go from here? https://www.olx.ph/item/admiral-grandsuites-luxury-developments-in-roxas-boulevard-ID84GCo.html?h=c54ceca9cc

Peter from the Propertyclub has a new video about this Manila bay condo, called Admiral Baysuites, -- definitely one of the landmarks over there. He really loves the Bay Area as most of his videos are all about this area.

Well here is the first newspaper article about that 2Q 2017 report http://www.entrepreneur.com.ph/news-and-events/buying-a-condo-for-investment-step-outside-cbds-where-prices-are-rising-faster-says-colliers-a00200-20170810?utm_source=Facebook-Entrep&utm_medium=Ownshare&utm_campaign=20170810-fbnp-news-and-events-says-colliers-fbfirst excerpt: "" Macaranas highlighted major developments in Pasig, Malugay Street in Makati and the Manila Bay Area with capital appreciation growth ranging from five percent to 21 percent quarter-on-quarter ""

2Q-2017: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/2q2017_colliers_quarterly_residential.pdf Yes that same word "Plateau" has also appeared in the Colliers Ph residential report 2Q2017 for the first time. It looks as if they re saying that the growth in capital values has come to a complete standstill in the CBDs. They now advise investors to invest in the areas outside of the CBDs, the fringe areas, where they still can expect some value appreciation. Despite this, the index for 3Br units in Makati reached a new -- all time ?? -- high despite declining rents and rising vacancies. I have seen the lower to mid end developers -- like DMCI and Emp East -- raise their preselling prices significantly the last quarter, and I also see the lower bands in the Colliers indexes moving higher. I have also noticed that the prices for Studio units are usually 10 to 15pct more expensive than similar 1Br to 2Br units in the same building. To me this indicates growing wealth within Filipino households. Most of them now appear to have enough savings for the downpayment (or full payment??) for a studio unit, but 1Br to 2Br units are still out of reach for most of them. As most foreigners or Filipinos with access to foreign capital (thru marriage) buy 2Br, 3Br and luxury units with cash, and these sales are not reflected in the BSP index, while most locals increasingly buy the now slightly more expenive (studio + 1Br) units from the low to mid end developers with bank loans, I still expect the BSP index to move higher significantly later this year. The BSP index should now rise faster than Colliers index. The wild card will be the global economy. If we see the stock markets nosedive later this year, then all bets are off and we could be in for a rude awakening.

Property prices are plateauing... according to Pinnacle. (and they are basing on this the BSP Phil Real Estate index) http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/housing-developments-continue-amid-plateauing-market-price/ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://filipinohomes.com/blog/pre-selling-properties/ Another article about the pros and cons of buying preselling properties. Well the early investors in this Hotel 101 project appear to have done well but that is not always the case. I would also say that the early investors in DMCI Flair/Sheridan appear to have done well, but whether the early investors in DMCI Kai Garden will do as well remains to be seen. They are paying PHP80,000 to close to PHP100,000 (for studio units I believe) per square meter so for them there is (far) more risk. The planting of Japanese trees on the rooftop and the addition of a Japanese style Garden in this project does not justify a 30-40pct price increase compared with the earlier DMCI projects in that neigborhoud.

http://www.lamudi.com.ph/whitepaper-2017 Lamudi Real estate market report 2017

http://www.entrepreneur.com.ph/news-and-events/early-investors-in-injap-sia-s-hotel-101-seen-to-earn-6-55-return-in-1st-year-after-full-completion-a00200-20170807?ref=tag An interesting article about the hotel 101 project in the Bay Area. (A project that I also investigated and looked into at that time) The article mentions that resale units are now close to PHP4,000,000, while the launch price was PHP3,100,000 I believe. Each unit is about 21 square meters I believe, so that translates into around slightly less than PHP200,000 per square meter. For a condotel, i believe it usually costs around 10 to 15pct more than a regular condo unit. Secondary market prices for all the SMDC units in this erea, I believe to be around PHP170,000 to PHP180,000 per square meter. So this is another case where early investors did the right thing, because today buyers in the secondary market have to pay a higher price than during the launch phase.

https://www.facebook.com/AllAboutPropertiesPH/?hc_ref=ARTodN-TbPo2W5cQZK9Qz2x_NuUIgb4Ka73JW1hZujh90H0wT1zEf7n2O4dMNa_CcyM&fref=nf 4 resale units from the Rise are listed on this facebook page -- august 3rd

Hi There is another reason why I like the Chino Roces area, -- it is its proximity to the Bay Area. And therefore these units are also an indirect bet on the rise of the Bay Area as a major commercial/lifestyle hub. For Mandaluyong/Pasig I like their proximity to BGC (North) One area I don't like is the Circuit Makati/Century Mandaluyong/Kai Garden area, because there is no neighboring rising business district. Quite surprisingly Kai Garden from DMCI is now launched at around PHP100,000 per square meter, this is a first time that I see such high prices for their projects in a location that is slightly inferior to places like Flair/Sheridan/Brixton because they are much closer to BGC. Congratulations to early investors in Flair/Sheridan projects who got their units at around PHP55,000 to PHP65,000 per square meter depending on the payment plan.

https://www.facebook.com/kpacelo?hc_ref=ARTUZUvz-nV2-tWh5ooab-3T1nopfeGnkYPtyYpXOcuIbGtnz5dlc1PEY2HEvfzgTEI&pnref=story Anecdotal report from a seller (Kelvin G Pacelo) who can't distinguish between the developer price and the market price. -- posted july 24th on his facebook page -- ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Less than a year ago, one of my Tita abroad decided to get one unit in San Lorenzo Place, Makati. (Empire East Project) The Total Contract Price was 3.1 million pesos. Today, the same unit is valued more than 4.2 million pesos. That's a whooping 1 million increase in less than a year! I'm happy that all of my clients are making money with my help. Really, making money by helping others make more money is a fulfilling career! I'll never leave this job! Real estate is one of the easiest and safest way to earn money. All you need to do is wait, wait, and wait as your money grows exponentially. Also, this is one of the aftermaths of PDutertes Build, Build, Build program. We have a great nation leader, people! Philippines' economy is growing fast! ---

And Peter from the PropertyClub has been very busy as of late. His latest videos: where to live in PH the 10 pitfalls of buying property in PH

And another "adventure" traveller from Belgium this time. He rents a small flat for about PHP1500 per month, that's about USD30 per month... That's obviously dirt cheap. And he owns a store with his partner I guess. (isn't it illegal for foreigners to enter the retail trade in PH?) And he doesn't want to go back to Belgium, because there is too much bureacracy and no freedom. So PH is new USA. Interesting because it means PH is open for cheapskates.

http://www.philstar.com/business/2017/07/08/1717361/taiwan-group-eyes-biggest-ecozone-tallest-building-philippines Roxas Boulevard is what Champs Elyses is to France. It is the road which is going to known to foreigners the most. And here we have another landmark building -- 85 stories -- this is huge -- which will be built along ROXAS Boulevard. An IT building, -- so software/and other kind of services. Landmark, iconic buildings have a value increasing effect on the entire neighborhoud. Also if the city of pearl is going be completed, it will further boost values alond the Bay Area. http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2101902/hong-kong-architect-bags-contract-massive-development

If you BUY NEW, when you go to sell it will be secondhand... and you will suffer maybe a 20% price drop It's a good reasoning and for most properties in most places, this is the rule. However for the hot spots, especially the new upcoming business districts, which most people cannot discern yet, -- buying properties during preselling at launch date will still be a very profitable investment, and the second hand price might NEVER drop below the initial launch price. Breeze residences had a launch price of about 3M for a 27sq meter unit with balcony facing ameneties/Manila bay, and I believe it was raised to3,2Million about 1 year later. Right now, according to manilacondostore.com the official price if rent to own is about PHP5Million and if cash perhaps 4,5M. For the condo's facing Makati, Malate, the price is about ,5Million less I believe. https://www.facebook.com/breezeresidences.residences Yes -- based on yield alone -- it is quite unrealistic to even "think" that these units might decline to 2,5Million in price, as you seem to be suggesting. Of course there might be the occasional "fool" who not knowing the market might sell his unit for 2Million or less, but it will be a very rare occurance. On the following facebook link, we can see an Asian?? unit owner who is asking PHP30,000 in rent for his unit and I can assure you, these rental rates are quite realistic for this area. So if he is able to get a 100pct occupancy rate thru short term rentals his gross rental return is about 11pct. But if the price were to drop 20pct from the developers price, -- as some investors here -- wrongly in my opinion - seem to assume then the rental yield would spike to 14,5 - 15pct. This is completely UNREALISTIC. In my opinion, the chance of that occuring is one in a TRILLION. In other words, waiting for prices to fall and to buy those units in the secondary markets might work for not so prime areas and transportation hub units and mass market units like the Grace residences video which I have shown in another thread, but those investors who had the foresight, courage and discipline to ignore the perma bearish real estate forecasts, might come out as big winners, - GLORY TO THEM - and those procastinators who are still hoping for prices to fall got slapped in the face again. They will live in an illusion forever they they can buy those units at 20pct less than the developers's starting price, while prices escalate slowly higher year after year. This is not so say that we should not look at second hand properties. Second hand is how I learned the tricks of the trade, but some opportunities are only available during the very early stages of preselling and they will never be as good later on. By 2030 this tiny 27sqmeter flat of this Asian owner is more likely to be worth 10Million than 2,5Million. As an aside, you also talk about falling values for existing/finished/completed buildings but Anchorland's Admiral Baysuites -- just keeps raising its price despite being completed 2,5 years ago. The developer's price has increased from 4,2 to 6,5Million for units facing Manila Bay and 3,5 to 5,5 for the other units. Admiral Baysuites in the Bay Area is what Grand Hyatt is to BGC. It is an iconic structure that seems to mesmerize people so that they lose control and start overspending/overpaying on their real estate purcase, and yes, I think the Bay area will eventually overtake even BGC as the next business hotspot. All real estate values/building close to these hotspots then suddenly start to appreciate in value. It is the reason why Prisma's residences is more expensive then Lumiere residences since Prisma is closer to Grand Hyatt BGC. It is the only reason that Avida's flats can fetch such outrageous prices in BGC. Only because of this. (some commentators call those Avida units military units) I am seeing the same escating price explosions in both areas. Breeze +50pct in two years/Admiral Baysuites +50pct in 4 years. This is almost similar to the Federal Land "8 Park avenue" price phenomenon. http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1254573&page=17 On this page we can even see the Bangko Central Philippines together with Admiral Baysuites. Also because bay area condos have a better air quality, -- it is negatively charged air caused by the sea while car exhaust is highly positive air which will slowly kill you and those units facing the bay area are quite scarce. I mean that is what Huanggua also wrote about before on the skyscrapercity forum, that bay area units always seem to fetch the highest values. People instinctively move to those areas where their long term survival is the highest. So that's the problem with the San Lorenzo Place and the Travis Kraft building in San Lorenzo Village. Transportation is good but you'll die a slow death not knowing the cause. Wow, quite a detailed/major comment.

Quite an interesting video as we see a very young air stewardess entering the real estate rental business, but in her second follow up video, we can notice that it turned out to be a bed spacer business with 4 beds cramped in a tiny 20-22 square meter tiny flat. In most Western european countries this many people on such a small space is not allowed, btw. Quite an interesting video, -- I like it.

No it is the trade deficit which can also weaken a currency https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-11/philippines-posts-record-trade-deficit-in-may-as-imports-surge