Euro Chocozone Buyer

About that VAT menace... But there are precise few new flats in Makati and BGC at that price level. Hi, I think you forgot the BAY area as well. I remember having looked at all the SMDC condos in that area a few years ago and many of these things - Coast Residences 24sqm, Breeze Residences 27sqm - sold for 3,2 PHP million each. Looking at manilacondostore today, I have noticed that all these units are now suddenly PHP4,5 to PHP5,00 million each (manila bay view), so AGAIN a staggering price increase -- this is of course also because with this new price increase, the VAT becomes mandatory -- but it is my opinion, that they haven't built enough (small) condo's in the bay area to drive the price down... I am very afraid that 24-27sq meter 3,2Million condo's in the bay area are a thing of the past, and will never return in my lifetime. Of course, for the procastinators on this board, -- there is always this agent called Rob Luat -- who sometimes can sell you one of these units "below" the market price.

My take on it is that this plan - if enacted - will boost the secondary market... So good if you bought before the VAT was implemented. Now onto something else. Our good friend from thesystemisbroken has compiled new charts for the Residential Real Estate Price index and it is the last chart, where you can see the almost parabolic spike in the prices for condos in the Ex-National Capital Region, that is striking. The BSP PH condo index confirms the Colliers condo index meaning the silent rally is broad based. He claims this index has little usefullness, but I strongly DISAGREE. This index is very useful because it completely removes foreign influenced buying which we know is very often cash based, and it shows what local lenders think these assets are worth. http://systemisbroken.blogspot.com/2017/07/the-unbearable-volatility-of-bsps.html

http://www.philstar.com/business/2017/07/06/1716680/tax-reform-seen-hit-residential-market-hard The bastion of free market capitalism gone in PH now?? New condominiums worth less than 3,2Million now VAT taxable in the very near future??

Can Asia Power Through another financial crisis??? From Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-asian-financial-crisis-anniversary/

http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/keystat/rrepi.htm Hi "Our index", -- the residential real estate price index -- for 1Q2017 from BSP is just out, and the preliminary conclusion that I am tempted to make is that the secondary market is relatively strong and absorption of all this new supply doesn't seem to cause major price falls. (yet) The index for condominium units for all of PH reached a new all time high. For NCR we again approached the old highs established during 3Q2016, while the results for the outside NCR are truly spectacular. From 112,8 to 129,9 -- UP 15 pct in one quarter. Wealth appears to be spreading to this area as MM is congested and oversupplied. This the biggest Qtr to Qtr rise ever in this index for Outs NCR I believe. I had not expected this kind of result. It shows major resilience. And -- contrary to Colliers index -- which is heavily geared towards developers and new projects, comparing apples with pears, this index confirms that the broader market is holding up well and that our investments appear to be doing well, and the BSP index confirms the Colliers index. The rally goes on... From the BSP -- no fanfare, no media show -- just plain facts about 30pct of the secondary market.

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/business/2017/06/20/netherlands-phs-top-investor-1st-quarter-548434 The Dutch leap forward Netherlands is PH's top investor in 1st quarter Tuesday, June 20, 2017 By Reuel John F. Lumawag THE Netherlands is the Philippines' biggest investor in the first quarter of 2017 registering P6.2 billion in approved investments according to recent data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). Data showed that 94 percent of Dutch companies have invested in the manufacturing sector at P5.85 billion, which is massive increase from the P64.8 million invested in the same sector in the first quarter of 2016. The remaining 6 percent of the total approved investments of the Dutch are into the administrative and support service activities. Singapore came in second with the largest approved investments to the Philippines during the first quarter of 2017 at P4.3 billion Read more: http://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/business/2017/06/20/netherlands-phs-top-investor-1st-quarter-548434

http://www.propertyguru.com.my/property-news/2017/5/152765/investing-in-a-property-in-the-philippines-heres-what-you-need-to-know Excerpt: many of the top condominiums at this moment are located in non-traditional areas Others in the top ten, such as Amaia Skies Shaw, Lumiere Residences, The Vantage at Kapitolyo, and Asteria Residences, are conveniently located near CBDs but are not within their jurisdictions. The first three are located along the stretch of Shaw Boulevard that connects Pasig with C-5 Road, and have excellent accessibility to EDSA, Makati, and Fort Bonifacio Global City.

And JLL is even more bullish, -- they have "upgraded" their forecasts for HK Residential Prices, now expected to rise 10 to 15pct this year. It seems to me that the property agencies, everywhere, -- JLL / Knight Santos / Colliers -- are way more bullish than the - perhaps more independent - research analysts from the banks and brokerage houses. Maybe there's a conflict of interest?????????????

Being able to make some kind of prediction of price direction in the market requires a reliable source of sales data. The secondary property market is very scattered and as far as I am aware there is no centralized database collating sales information. If anyone reading this knows of one please get in contact. I would love to take a look at it! Without this you can only rely on anecdotal evidence and make a judgment call.

What initially attracted me to look at real estate investment in the Philippines was the rental yields on offer. It is not too difficult to find yields of 10%+ on gross rental income. However, after looking deeper it is my opinion that, on average, rents are unlikely to grow in the short term due to the massive supply coming onto the market in the years ahead. So if you choose to rent it is unlikely that your cost of living will be pushed up by skyrocketing rental costs. This will strangle capital values, and after fees it will be difficult to make a profit. So while there is certainly a property boom happening in Manila, it is the developers that are cashing in on this. I do hope that the masses look deeper into what they are really buying if it is an investment they want, as is the case for thousands of OFWs. The dream being sold by the developers is not always going to be the reality.

http://theexpatangle.com/aroundtown/manila-property-market-to-buy-or-not-to-buy/ Another article about a foreign expat who does recommends that you better don't buy PH Real estate. Opinions are clearly mixed on this subject.

Great Job and thanking you for enlightening us, I obviously am not that sophisticated in compiling data and drawing graphs. If possible can you also include the general rate of inflation against these indices? I believe the BSP index is perpahs only slightly above the inflation rate while the Colliers Index is still substantially above this line. This also means that price declines in the secondary market are going to be quite limited in my opinion, and a big drop like 20-30pc is unlikely imo Also on the makatiprime graph you mention 1pct inflation but the inflation rate has accelatered strongly last year as well as this year, now already at 3.3pct I believe so that needs to be adjusted on the description. The combination of a strong inflationary uptick as well as rising income should also soften the impact of declining rents. Rents might decline further this year and into early 2018 and that might be the low point. Yes I do believe the BSP index, even though it is a very broad index, covering the NCR, and also the secondary market, is a better reflection of the value of the assets that we hold. much better than the Colliers/JLL index which is influenced and used by the various developers, mainly to -- like you said before -- create an illusion that all is well while the general market is more in a soft patch now, for the time being. In other words: this is pure propaganda to manage the perceptions of investors that everything is OK based on a small subgroup of properties in the primary market. Lastly, the BSP index really demonstrated the link between the stock markets and the general global economy (2008-2010) and the real estate market in PH, and if we will see a major stock market selloff and/or the onset of a strong recession in USA later this year, then I am convinced this will have a major impact on this BSP index, This might be the cause for somehow bigger move to the downside in this index, and it might start later this year. If possible, -- and I know you re a good chartist -- can you compare the BSP index with the stock market index in USA and show its correlation? To me this correlation looks quite strong, If we re going to have severe drops in the main stock market indexes, than a 10pct decline in the BSP index cannot be ruled out, maybe even 15pct in case of a severe recession.

The chart of the BSP index/ is PH's Central Bank - as reported by the St Louis Fed > source/ ALFRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QPHR628BIS (in edit, Data & Chart added by DrBubb): Chart v.1 : Chart-BSP-1 - Q4-16 = 157.33 / 2010 = 100 CHART v.2 = DATA : ALFRED "Real Residential Prices for Makati, PH" ====== Qtr/Year : BSP-1 : BSP2 : QonQ : x--1100 : w-Adj.2 / Mak-Mid. QonQtr / Rent : QonQ/ Y-MakM 1Q /2014 : 118.44 : 118.4 :-0.17% : 124,320 : 136,280 / 136,533 : +1.20% / 0,810 : +0.62% / 7.12% 2Q /2014 : 118.73 : 118.7 : 0.25% : 124,635 : 136,790 / 138,083 : +1.13% / 0,820 : +1.23% / 7.13% 3Q /2014 : 121.23 : 121.2 : 2.11% : 127,260 : 141,040 / 142,750 : +3.38% / 0,830 : +1.22% / 6.97% 4Q /2014 : 122.65 : 122.7 : 1.24% : 128,835 : 143,590 / 144,500 : +1.23% / 0,838 : +0.96% / 6.96% 1Q /2015 : 129.34 : 124.8 : 1.71% : 131,040 : 147,160 / 147,350 : +1.97% / 0.848 : +1.19% / 6.90% 2Q /2015 : 132.22 : 126.0 : 0.96% : 132,300 : 149,200 / 149,000 : +1.11% / 0.862 : +1.65% / 6.94% 3Q /2015 : 135.20 : 127.5 : 1.19% : 133,875 : 151,750 / 151,000 : +1.34% / 0,875 : +1.51% / 6.95% 4Q /2015 : 137.75 : 127.2 :-0.24% : 133,560 : 151.240 / 151,300 : +0.20% / 0,883 : +0.91% / 7.02% 1Q /2016 : 140.66 : 127.3 : 0.08% : 133,665 : 151,410 / 152,000 : +0.46% / 0,865 : - 2.04% / 6.82% 2Q /2016 : 143.36 : 122.9 :-3.46% : 129,045 : 143,930 / 147,575 : - 2.91% / 0,855 : - 1.16% / 6.95% 3Q /2016 : 145.79 : 121.2 :-1.38% : 127,260 : 141,040 / 146,485 : - 0.74% / 0,840 : - 1.75% / 6.88% 4Q /2016 : 157.33 : ____ : ______ ______ : _______ / 150,600e: +2.81% / 0,837 : - 0.36% / 6.67% : at 7%Y= 143,500 1Q /2017 : ??.?? : ____ : ______ ______ : _______ / 155,000e: +2.92% / 0,823 : - 1.67% / 6.37% : at 7%Y= 141,100 Qtr/Year : BSP-1 : BSP2 : QonQ : x--1100 : w-Adj.2 / Mak-Mid. QonQtr / Rent : QonQ/ Y-MakM ======== Coverage includes flats and commercial properties in Makati (part of metropolitan Manila). The series is deflated using CPI. For more information, please see https://www.bis.org/statistics/pp_detailed.htm.

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/news-Top_5_Metro_Manila_Neighborhoods_for_Condo_Investors-3100 Neigborhoods with the highest rental yield are mentioned in this article. Good if you re looking for a condo to buy and rent out I guess...

Another "fraudulent" market report from Colliers is now out. ("fraudent is what David Kranler would call it if it is misleading) Well it appears the primary market indexes have risen again, and Makati CBD residential prices appear to have risen 3pct during 1Q2017, maybe the index -- which only benefits the builders btw -- has risen to a new all time high??? http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/1q2017_residential_market_report.pdf It would be better if this rise in the primary index -- the developers index -- was confirmed by a rise in the secondary index -- the broader market -- the index compiled by the BSP. Because a rise in the BSP benefits us while a rise in the Colliers index benefits "them".

A further preview of Q2017 " Developers continue to presell more units, further increasing prices across markets but rents continue to decline as units are completed at record levels. " Colliers Philippines' Research Manager Joey Bondoc discussed the developments in the retail sector during the briefing today for the company's 2017 1st quarter property market report, https://www.facebook.com/colliersph/?hc_ref=PAGES_TIMELINE&fref=nf So this report will be out soon and it is a continuation of existing trends.

http://www.scmp.com/country-reports/article/2084974/manilas-condo-units-offer-residential-property-investors-taste-high More foreigners appear to be coming to the PH. (Added in edit, by Dr Bubb); Which foreigners? Many. But maybe mostly these: Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte’s diplomacy with China has boosted Metro Manila’s residential property market, according to licensed real estate broker Joanne Almaden. She says her Bonifacio Global City-based agency, Phil. Property Expert, has signed an increasing number of leases and short-term rental agreements with Chinese-speaking tenants. “The warming ties with Beijing certainly contributed to the confidence of Chinese buyers and renters of properties here,” she says. “At least 10 per cent of our tenants now are Chinese.” The article is trying to steer buyers to where the supply is greatest, and AWAY from possible bargains in the secondary market: Raymundo recommends Hongkongers should “buy in high-quality projects from a reputable developer who will, for a presale unit, hand over the unit on schedule and where good property management is assured”. To some extent, this is justified, since there may be less risk of being er, disappointed... if you buy from a top class developer. But you will pay more, and the commissions might be higher for the agents. I find the price levels mentioned in the article to be VERY high. Perhaps this is to pitch expectations at a level where the agent will have an easier time too find something a little cheaper.

Here's another video from an - American - blogger who bought a preselling unit in BGC from Megaworld. He is quite bullish on BGC, -- even though I believe the price there is already quite high. I did not know that Megaworld was going to move its HQ to BGC but that's what he is saying. And Citibank also closed down its Makati HQ and moved it to BGC as well so it appears to be true that a lot of jobs are coming to BGC.

Hi http://www.bsp.gov.ph/publications/media.asp?id=4077 Isn't the BSP Real Estate Price index a better indication of what's really happening in the PH property market??? Highlights from the link: The RREPI is computed as weighted chain-linked index based on the average appraised value per square meter weighted by the share of floor area of housing units About 7 out of 10 residential real estate loans granted were for the purchase of new housing units; From this we can deduce that 30pct of all real estate loans are for the purchase of existing housing units (the secondary market). If you use COLLIERS INDEX then it looks like the uptick which you mentioned for 4Q2016 is NOT representative of the whole market, It's time to use this new index as the benchmark IMO

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-04/india-philippines-to-lead-asian-growth-as-workforces-rise

Knigt Frank is more bullish. Forecasts 5 pct price growth in 2017 despite all the headwinds. http://www.knightfrank.com/blog/2017/04/21/primary-sales-gained-momentum-as-hong-kong-market-digests-pull-factors

http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Finance&title=real-estate-price-growth-slows&id=143146 The BSP real estate price index is based upon the data of loans gathered by its member banks. About 70pct of all loans went to new construction, according to this article, so that means that 30pct of loans are probably to related to the secondary market. Also, and according to lamudi data, most local Filipinos only buy studio and 1Br units, very few Filipinos have the purchasing power to buy 2Br and 3br units, so most of these buyers are foreign or half-foreign, and a large number of those people probably pay cash. And the cash buyers are not included in the BSP index So I think the prices in the secondary market collapsed by around 5pct in 4Q2016 and that is the only significant index that somehow tracks the secondary market. For the (entire real estate) market to break out, the BSP index must confirm the JLL/Colliers (residential RE) indexes, and that is not happening yet, and is unlikely to do so in the next 2-3 years as the recession gains ground in USA. Combine a 5pct market decline with a 3.5pct inflation rate, and investors in Real estate assets have lost around 8 to 9pct in purchasing power this last quarter, as the secondary market is not keeping up with inflation. This is probably a more realistic assessment of the market than all the bull talk from the sell side community. All the price increases that the developers announce only benefit themselves, not us.

Earn 20-25pct in the very low income housing segment. Maybe this opportunity is only available for Filipinos though http://www.kapandesalcoop.org/membership Maybe this is the same as what most Chinese are investing in, a kind of Wealth Management Product that gives a higher rate of return than the bank. (the investor) "They will have an about 20 to 25pct dividend yield in their investment"

The next video is about the mismatch in the student housing market. Apparently there are only 5695 unit versus a demand of 130K. Has anyone here looked into student housing??? Usually, and in most places, that gives you very high returns like 8 to 10pct per annum.

How to rent (out) your condo fast. One Spanish guy fired his real estate broker because they were too slow... So we are seeing more foreigners.