drbubb Posted January 12, 2011 Report Share Posted January 12, 2011 The Voice of Denial - "It is not a river in Egypt" Some of the ways the Bulls fool themselves ======================================== "I made my bed, now I must lie in it." "The lender has the risk, not the owner... and the income from rental is a bonus." Truly, they take the breath away ! ========================= The Second Leg down in the great Bear Market for UK Property ... And the First major drop in London in decades : The "H&N Index"* ============== The "H&N Index"* /mom:Hali/Wide :: Greater London-Rightmove ======================== :: ==================== Peak: £169,287 : Apr.10 : Cum'l . :: £421,822 :Apr.10 : May : £169,183 - 0.06% : -0.06% :: £420,203 :May'10 : Jun : £168,253 - 0.55% : -0.61% :: £429,597 :June10 : Cum'l. Jul : £168,839 + 0.35% : -0.26% :: £422,248 - 1.71% : -1.71% Aug : £167,698 - 0.68% : -0.94% :: £405,058 - 4.07% : -5.71% Sep : £165,198 - 1.49% : -2.42% :: £399,019 - 1.49% : -7.11% Oct : £164,828 - 0.02% : -2.63% :: £418,778 + 4.95% : -2.52% Nov : £163,333 - 0.91% : -3.52% :: £417,279 - 0.36% : -2.87% Dec : £162,131 - 0.74% : -4.23% :: £408,248 - 2.16% : -4.97% ==== Ave. decline for the UK since Apr'10 Peak is: -0.52%/month. We have seen "crash cruise speed" since July 2010. *(Average of Halifax & Nationwide, NSA) More data: http://tinyurl.com/GPC-data I think this may be a good time to start a thread like this - for the historical record. Because sometime in the next 12-18 months, the Deniers may have a big moment of realisation, that they have got it wrong. And that moment may be brief and it will be very interesting to record the transition into it. (Please do not use people's actual screen names - initials will do - this thread is not designed to attack individuals, just a thought process shared by bulls. ... from the long property thread ; I agree except that I also expect a "BTL tsunami" period at some point where the BTL crowd all try to get out at the same time. This may be brief but would see a dramatic plunge in prices. Very possible to see a point of recognition amongst the BTL-ers. But we are not there yet. Go to Property Tribes and read some of the comments there - they are in full blooming denial now. And they find the arguments that I have articulated "boring", whilst they are unable to refute a single point. It will be bloody. = = = = = LINKS Data Blog on PT :: http://propertytribes.ning.com/profiles/bl...leg-down-in-the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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