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Philippines expected to outperform peers

GROWTH among emerging Asian economies is expected to be robust over the medium term -- with the Philippines now expected to outpace its ASEAN-5 peers in terms of expansion in the next five years -- even as domestic and external risks remain, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said.

Money sent home by Filipinos abroad remains a key support of the economy. -- AFP
In a report, titled “Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2015: Strengthening Institutional Capacity”, released yesterday at the last day of the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, the OECD said growth prospects “look favorable overall” in emerging Asia -- consisting of Southeast Asia, China, and India -- over the next five years, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the region seen averaging 6.5% annually from 2015 to 2019. This is slightly slower than the 6.9% average GDP expansion OECD had forecast over 2014-2018 in the 2014 edition of its outlook report.

“Although growth in emerging Asia will moderate gradually due to the slowdown in China, for the 10 ASEAN countries as a whole, growth momentum remains robust and broadly similar to that of the past 10 years, averaging 5.6% in 2015-19.”

China’s growth is seen averaging at 6.8% in the next five years, substantially slower than the 7.7% print expected for 2014-2018 last year.

OECD also previously saw expansion among the 10 ASEAN economies at 5.4% in 2014-2018.

Among the smaller grouping of ASEAN-5 economies -- composed of the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam -- the Philippines is seen leading the pack, with GDP growth seen averaging 6.2% annually over 2015-2019, up from the 5.8% forecast OECD gave for 2014-2018.

The government expects economic growth to reach 6.5-7.5% this year, 7-8% next year, and 7.5-8.5% by 2016. The Philippine economy has seen stellar growth in the past two years, expanding 7.2% and 6.8% in 2013 and 2012, respectively.

The economy expanded at a faster-than-expected 6.4% in the second quarter compared to the downwardly revised 5.6% seen in the first three months of the year, but still slower than the 7.9% recorded in the April-June period in 2013. This brought the first semester average to 6%, slower than last year’s 7.7%. The government is scheduled to announce third-quarter GDP data on Nov. 27.
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Knightsbridge Tower : Pricing Note



View from the Knightsbridge Tower ... source



November 17th, 2014

I am selling my recently turned over unit for a bit below what Century Properties are calling “market value”.
The unit is a 43 sqm studio on a mid-level floor with unobstructed views towards Mandaluyong. It has a nice kitchen that is separated from the living area by a wall.
Included is the “Classic” fully-furnished and fully-fitted package which means the floor and the kitchen cabinets are a dark brown.
My asking price is P5,500,000 (with no hidden extras).
Per SM: 5.5 million / 43 = PHP 127,907
I wonder how much it can be rented for ?
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HOME Prices in London Surpass Hong Kong - SCMP Headline


==========: US$/SF : %Lon.: F/X : Lcl-FX/ SF : x 10.76 (/SM)

London------ : 3,380 : 100 % : 1.57 : GBP 2,153 :

Hong Kong- : 3,290 : 97.3% : 7.75 : HKD 25,498 :

New York--- : 3,042 : 90.0% : 1.00 : USD 3,042 :

Sydney------ : 2,030 : 60.1% : 0.83 : AUD 2,445 :

Paris--------- : 1,860 : 55.0% : 1.24 : EUR 1,500 :

Singapore -- : 1,605 : 47.4% : 1.31 : SGD 2,102 :

Los Angeles : 1,500 : 44.4% : 1.00 : USD 1,500 :

Tokyo ------- : 1,380 : 40.8% : 119 : JPY 164,220 :

Mumbai----- : 1,225 : 36.2% :

Milan/Rome : 1,000 : 29.6% : 1.24 : EUR 0,806

OTHER Cities)

Philadelphia- : $ 102 : 03.0% : 1.00 : USD$142,300/house (1400sf.Est)

Washingt.DC : $ 198 : 05.9% : 1.00 : USD$443,000/house (2237sf) almost 2X larger

Makati, Phil. : $ 298 : 08.8%: 44.5 : PHP 13,267 : 142,750/sm

Bangkok, Th. : $ 303 : 09.0% : 32.8 : THB 09,944 : 107,000/sm

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Here's JAZZ in Makati... being completed (about now)




Imagine living in one of those lower floor flats in the middle tower.

It would be dark and depressing to be stuck there.




Does Makati really need more of these monstrosities ?


> SScity : http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1343265&page=135

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Q3 2014: Global house price rises accelerate, led by Europe ...
Global Property Guide-9 hours ago
In the Philippines, the average price of 3-bedroom condominium units in Makati CBD rose by 3.58% in Q3 2014 from a year earlier, ....
In September 2014, dwelling units approved (seasonally-adjusted) fell by 11% from a year ...
. . .
  • Asian housing markets continue to lose steam. Only two of the ten Asian markets for which figures are available in Q3 2014 performed better in momentum terms than the previous year, while the remaining eight housing markets lost momentum. In the Philippines, the average price of 3-bedroom condominium units in Makati CBD rose by 3.58% in Q3 2014 from a year earlier, a sharp deceleration from 10.83% price rises during the same period last year. Housing prices increased 2.43% q-o-q during Q3 2014. In Taiwan, house prices rose by just 3.42% during the year to Q3 2014, a sharp slowdown the dramatic price-rise of 14.97% over the same period last year and the slowest annual growth seen since Q2 2009. House prices actually dropped 1.6% during Q3 2014. In Indonesia, residential prices in the country's 14 largest cities rose by just 2.19% y-o-y in Q3 2014, down from 4.54% in the same period last year. Housing prices actually fell by 0.81% q-o-q in Q3 2014. In Thailand, housing prices rose by 2.15% during the year to Q3 2014, down from 3.61% the previous year. Hong Kong's residential property prices rose minimally by 1.57% during the year to Q3 2014, a slowdown from 7.76% growth a year earlier (though Hong Kong's housing prices may now be picking up).

Asian countries which showed minimal house price increases included Vietnam, with house prices rising by 1.45% during the year to Q3 2014, South Korea (0.59%) and Tokyo, Japan (0.49%). All saw quarterly price declines in Q3 2014. However, of these only Japan showed poorer performance in Q3 2014 compared to the previous year.

China's once booming property market is now weakening significantly.

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Let's Launch in... Manila, Philippines


Population, greater Manila : 21.3 mn (of about 100mn in Phil.)

Number in Philippines living on less than $1 per day : 25 mn

Percentage of internet users on Facebook : 94 per cent


"An exciting place for start-ups looking for opportunties in Asia" - FT, pg.10


ADVANTAGES: Low cost of living, English speaking, young population

Disadvantges : Snarled traffic, some slow internet connections, onerous reporting

Examples :

Kalibrr - aims to make CV's obsolete, by training and verifying skills online

Xurpas - raised more than $30 million in capital


FUNDING : Manila is bristling with incubators and seed funds,

And big telecoms companies are backing some of these

Kickstart Ventures (Besler) - might hand out $30K for a 15% share

Manila Angels - the first Angel network

Omidyar Network - set up by Pierre Omidyar, eBay founder


NEEDS: Water, Energy, disaster preparedness



"Phil. loves novelty, forgives imperfection, speaks English, with income

growing at 6.5% per annum, and a willingness to spend money.

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Ayala Land launches City Gate phase one



Kroma in context : original plan: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1471414&page=2




Gateway : Presentation

Timing of phases :
Gateway - 1
Retail podium, parks : Open by 4Q-2016
Office (84,560 sqm) : Open by 4Q-2017
Hotel ( 300 rooms ) : Turnover, 4Q-2018
Gateway - 2
Tower / Mixed use ? : Coming later





(The Philippine Star) | Dec. 15, 2014

MANILA, Philippines - Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) launches the first phase of City Gate, another flagship mixed-use development in the Makati Central Business District. It is the company’s first stacked tower combining three uses: retail, office and hotel in one building.

City Gate’s prime location, on Ayala Ave. in the corners of Amorsolo and Salcedo Streets, makes it highly accessible to major thoroughfares such as Ayala Ave., Sen. Gil Puyat Ave., and the Skyway. Elevated walkways will also connect City Gate to Ayala Center and to the rest of the CBD – great for those who choose to walk and enjoy the real city life.

. . .

The project will have a total of 120k square meters of gross floor area (GFA) consisting of 53k square meters for business process outsourcing (BPO) firms; 28k square meters for traditional headquarter-type offices; 25k square meters for a 312 key Seda Suites Hotel; and 14k square meters for a retail mall.

One of the key features of City Gate will be the open and green civic space located at the end (or start) of Makati’s elevated walkway system. This 2,600 square meter space will be a place where residents, office workers and mall-goers can relax and unwind.


Mall patrons and residents can begin enjoying the retail and civic space by 2017 while the offices will be ready by 2018. Seda Suites Hotel will open its doors by 2019.

Ayala Land will be investing a total of P7B in City Gate and is expected to generate 10,000 jobs.

> http://www.philstar.com/business/2014/12/15/1402683/ayala-land-launches-city-gate-phase-one

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Circuit (Dec.21 - OneBlueFirst):
One of their principal targets for Circuit are people who want to have a "Rockwell-like" community near the river but can't afford Rockwell.

Also, if you look at the development plan, a lot of the space will be dedicated to commercial and office spaces. People who live here will probably work here as well. Other things to consider are what they plan for South Drive and Chino Roces plus the intermodal transport system that will connect Arca, BGC, City Gate, and Circuit.

Circuit will have its challenges in terms of adoption rate, but I'm sure it'll be a success in a decade or so.


Kroma (Dec.26 - DreamcityPH):
I believe 1BR here is already sold out, early heads up for those looking at the area, Megaworld will launch a new property in more or less 2 months very near Kroma and City Gate. Target price: 120k/
>more: SSC: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?s=264d4c19402b45683deb0cfd40540ba4&t=1443736&page=37

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APEC priorities set out for emergency-prepared Manila - SCMP


APEC : Asia-Pacific Economic Community


Philippines will be chairman of the regional forum in 2015

+ China did a great job in 2014, and will be a tough act to follow

+ The challenge now is: how to form a Free Trade zone for FTAAP

+ AND: improving infrastructure, managing urbanism, more transparency

+ Free Trade is being taken seriously thanks to China

+ Phil. itself must show ability to tackle the rich/poor divide

+ Phil. has historically be a reluctant reformer, and one of the least easy places to do business. With Manila now setting a liberalization agenda, it is encouraging

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One unit there has some Completion jitters will we see some more as completion approaches?





Studio Unit For Sale at The Linear Makati


Hello everyone!
Im selling my unit on 1Xth flr (Facing the ameneties) at Tower 2.
Im willing to give huge discount from the current market price.
Email me at XXX
Now is under bank loan with a 10-yr term. Total loan amt is Php1.8m. Monthly for 10 yrs is Php21k.
Need to pay me as a seller the amt of Php750k as I already paid for the 20% of the total contract price.
I will personal process the transfer of ownership to the buyer.
All is transparent. No gimmiks po.


> http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=836324&page=31


Does that mean he needs PHP 1.8m + 750m = 2.55mn?? Or more than that?

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Knightsbridge - Asking prices, updated, to 8.Jan.2015


11/17/14 : P5,500,000 /43.00 = P127.9K psm "above mkt" - midlevel fl., towards Mandaluyong, fully-furn. (Classic)

01/08/15 : P4,200,000 /27.17 = P154.6K psm - 35th fl., facing Makati skyline, fully-furnished (Oriental)


> http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?s=c9593ab2ad7bfd5af75f34b1c6094494&t=623021&page=107


Question: How do you get to work from this place?







Is it Dense enough for you? Do you like shadows?


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Phillippines sells debt as record low cost

The Phillippines has become the first sovereign issuer to tap the US dollar debt market this year,

locking in record low borrowing costs with the sale of a 25-year bond.

+ Raised $2 billion in new debt, with a coupon of 3.95 per cent, or 142 bp over US Treasuries, of same duration

+ The deal attracted orders of $13.5 billion (!), with US-based investors taking up almost half of the bonds

+ S&P gave it the bond a rating of triple-B: "not reliant on external funding, less exposed to China economy"

"Under the admininstration of President Benigno Aquino, global investors have come to see the Phillippines

as one of Asia's emerging market darlings."

In 2013, the economy grew at 7.2 percent, outstripped only by China

+ Estimated to have expanded at 6.2 percent in 2014


History: Govt Debt to GDP

==== : Phil.. : Thai.

2006 : 62.8 : 47.3 %

2007 : 55.4 : 41.3

2008 : 51.4 : 38.7

2009 : 54.7 : 38.1

2010 : 54.8 : 45.8 -

2011 : 52.4 : 43.8

2012 : 51.0 : 40.8

2013 : 51.5 : 43.7

2014 : 49.2 : 45.7

==== : ==========

> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/philippines/government-debt-to-gdp

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ALI to relaunch JAKA Tower redev’t

Property giant Ayala Land Inc. (ALI) is planning to launch within the year its planned redevelopment of an uncompleted tower formerly owned by the family of Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile.

Once launched this year, the JAKA Tower would be fully completed after three or four years, ALI chief finance officer Jimmy Ysmael said.

Ysmael said ALI initially intends to sell and not lease the office units of the tower.

“There will be some adjustments in the plan, it is still very structurally sound but we probably not build to the height it was originally intended,” he added.

> http://www.philstar.com/business/2015/01/14/1412598/ali-relaunch-jaka-tower-redevt



"30,000 sq meters is roughly 25 to 30 floors, depending on the size of the floor area. Jaka has eight floors on top of its roughly ten storey parking podium so I guess they would add around 17 to 22 more floors. Its still a pretty tall building, possibly up to 40 floors and can still have a significant impact. "

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Philippines' first subway gets OK from NEDA-ICC. From abs-cbn news.



2nd map: http://www.manilalivewire.com/2015/01/metro-manilas-first-subway-construction-approved/

The Manila’s first subway will run from Market Market (in Bonifacio Global City) and St. Luke’s Hospital in The Fort to the EDSA-MRT stations on Buendia and Ayala, to Ayala Triangle, the Makati post office and the PNR station on Buendia, then to the LRT-1 station on Buendia and Taft, then across Roxas Boulevard to the World Trade Center and SM Mall of Asia, then back to the EDSA-MRT station on Taft.

According to NEDA the estimated cost for a mere 12 kilometers is P370 billion, considered as the government’s most expensive PPP project. Some experts noted that subways are more expensive than the elevated rails which could double the price per kilometer, but the government has no choice but to implement the said project.


> http://philnews.ph/2015/01/15/manilas-first-subway-six-other-projects-approved-by-neda/


Could be part of a bigger system... eventually




> http://www.philstar.com/nation/2014/06/25/1338868/aquino-japan-vows-better-study-metro-manila-subway-system

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What drives Wealth, Well-being, Fertility... THA versus PHI




What's really driving that high population growth in PHI?




> source: http://antipinoy.com/infographics-total-fertility-rate-economic-well-being-infant-mortality-life-expectancy-population/comment-page-1/

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Colliers Predictions for 2015 - in the Philippines


#1. Economy to rebound from 2012's lower-than-expected growth

"... consensus that the country will become the top performing economy in the ASEAN region in 2015"


#2. Residential developments move outwards of Metro Manila for growth


Colliers observed a continuous decrease in condominium sales take-up in Metro Manila, which

peaked in 2012. While take-up rates have generally stabilized and that some areas such as Fort Bonifacio

remain popular with buyers, developers are seen to keep practicing cautious optimism in their residential

launches particularly in Metro Manila.


− To compensate for the softer outlook in Metro Manila, developers will continue to venture into residential

projects in second-tier and third-tier cities all over the country, where demand comes from end-user buyers.

The markets may be smaller compared to Manila but more stable in terms of end user housing demand.


− Moves by the BSP to forestall a potential real estate bubble, such as the bank real estate stress tests and a

cap on loan collaterals, may expand further to control the “shadow banking” activities of real estate

developers, possibly making capital for home purchases less accessible



After a 50-year hiatus, Metro Manila development focuses on the Bay Area

− Once known for its breathtaking sunset view, Manila Bay went through a series of land reclamations in the early 20th

century, which for better or for worse have changed the landscape in the area. The construction of the Cultural

Center of the Philippines (CCP) Complex in the 1960’s has had the most impact, with most of the buildings in the

complex relegated for artistic, government or civic use.


− Over the years, reclamation of the bay has turned to more commercial uses, the most famous of which is the SM Mall

of Asia Complex which was officially launched in 2006. This was followed by the PAGCOR Entertainment City, a casino

district housing four integrated leisure and gaming developments.


− Supported by four new infrastructure projects within the vicinity and coupled with better investment yield

opportunities stemming from lower land values, the Bay Area is expected to transform into a fully developed

business and leisure district, providing a viable alternative to the Makati and Fort Bonifacio CBDs.

. . .

But airport woes will continue to impede actual tourist growth


(At Nov.2014, NAIA was able to accomodate 41,208 arriving flights, with 6.87 million passengers)


As much as Colliers would like to be wrong, the problems that plague the airport system in Manila (as

well as some airlines) will continue to dissuade international travelers and stifle tourism growth.


− Since 2010, the number of international flights arriving and departing at NAIA has risen by 8.7%

annually, while as of November 2014 growth was almost 5% YoY. Meanwhile, no definite initiatives

have been made to increase the number of runways. Without a clear and concrete plan to fix the capacity

of NAIA or construct nearby airports, the country may not be able to accommodate more tourists, missing

tremendous opportunities brought about by the current tourism boom.


− Meanwhile, direct flights to international airports in the provinces will continue to increase as a response

to the lack of capacity, particularly in tourism hotspots such as Cebu and Boracay (via Kalibo).



> more: http://www.colliers.com/-/media/Files/Marketing%20Reports/Top10_Predictions_2015_FINAL.pdf

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  • 2 weeks later...

Milano Residence at Century City


Mak-Milano_zpsc35ea319.jpg : 19734161d56e8c22c9087a72b9f7823a95faa890


Nice looking building.





But who is going to live in alll these expensive buildings a very long walk from jobs in the Makati CBD?

Can you imagine what the queue's for taxis and buses will look like in the mornings?

And what happens when it is raining ?

The following will give you some idea of the distances involved - CBD is on the left:



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This is the area of Ayala's Premier brand properties in Makati




It includes: Park Terraces and Garden Towers

Modern Living TV: Episode 4 (Segment 4) : Garden Towers
Philippine Star: 622 views
Published on Aug 11, 2014

The Philippine STAR presents #‎ModernLivingTV: A series that will give the viewers a taste of a life full of pleasant experiences derived from breathtaking living spaces, well-organized and peaceful communities, and state-of-the-art residential and recreational facilities available.
Segment 1 - Green Architecture (with Architect Paulo Alcazaren)
Segment 2 - Organic and Natural Products with Chit Juan
Segment 3 - Garden Towers of Ayala Land Premiere -

Segment 4 - Raising an eco-conscious family with Bianca Araneta-Elizalde


#11: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeX92zIMEDw

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Getting to know... Makati




Comment from SSC:

"Can't help but notice Henry Sy's cluster of buildings. What an eyesore."

> http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?s=7a4b616e34175de2bc36e4128a4cd15e&t=1443736&page=37


From the main CBD, looking towards Trump Tower, etc



Looking back from Century City




Jazz Residence is by SMDC (Henry Sy)

A "yawn" to look at this ! But profitable to build this way:




> source: http://www.makaticondounits.com/forbes-henry-sy-still-philippines-richest/

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Comments on SMDC's Air vs. Jazz ... and Megaworld's new launch nr. CG

Scale model. I looked closely if the balcony railings are made of glass -- and they are not! The railings are similar with those what we see in Light or Jazz. Exterior-wise, I had expected something extraordinary in this project as it is a premier brand. Sadly, it joins the roster of other uninspired, bland, and boring SMDC structures.

Air Model - 10/6/14

Good Investment? - 12/20/14:
I think the best advice is to invest with the view you are going to stay there and have the funds to service the loan. This way, if you have a tenant then it's a blessing and if not, at least you can still continue to service the loan and enjoy the paper gain with the hope you can secure a tenant in the near future. Should you decide to flip when it is ready for occupancy, you would probably have made some paper gain but whether that will translate into any real gain will depend on how much the property has appreciated as you need to consider the broker's fee, sales tax etc into the equation. If you are considering using the rent to service the loan, it would be too risky if you cannot find a tenant for whatever reasons, you may be caught in a situation whereby you may have to sell at a loss. Personally I believe it is a good investment as both Rise and Air are in a good location. Don't forget there is a planned subway that is right next door where the Post Office is currently in.


So while there may be other condos nearby, the benefit of having a subway so close to both Rise and Air may lend it some advantage in securing tenants.

Megaworld launch - 12/27/14:
Yes condo. Megaworld will launch one in Malugay, near City Gate and La Fuerza Compound (township) all by next year... These are mid end type which means prices are lower than Megaworld luxury end condos in Makati CBD.

The one near City Gate is targeted to be launched at only 120k/sqm

Air : Appreciation / & Demand- 2/4/15:
I have reserved a 2 bed on level 56 (amenities/skyline view) and the 1 bed next door to it as well last year. My buddy then reserved the next 2 units along side mine so could be joining all our units together in the future, maybe lol. But I feel for best ROI its better to leave as is. Im predicting this project will aspire to be a good executive residence due to it accommodates office space as well unlike Jazz. Therefore the building is mixed use for functionality with very good amenities. I'm predicting the appreciation should be at least 30% by the time its complete in 2020 and its still currently well priced. Big advantage is the new subway to be built across the street in and proximity to the CBD.

Agreed with previous post that Air lacks appeal but with graded cladding systems rather than systems used 5 years ago standing today should give it a shiny look at least. / Yes I am an international broker and partnered with SMDC here in Middle East
. . .
Looking at the live prices VIA my SMDC portal Id say 60% Sold. Very strong interest with investors who are buying in bulk from abroad just recently


Sales look good - 2/5/2015

Air Residences launch for sale last August 27, 2014 and As of today!
Available ---------- : 2200 unit(s)
Not Available Unit : 1442 unit(s)
Average sold is 288 units per month.
> source: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1456032&page=14

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CENTURY CITY - Where are the jobs to support the spending by residents in this place?


(Am I the only one asking this? How will these people get to their jobs? Where?)








> more: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1441123&page=49

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SHANG's Shang Salcedo Place [65F|res]
@ Salcedo Village, Makati City, Metro Manila
58 residential floors
5 parking/amenity floor
2 podium floor
10 pyramid floors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
total:75 stories high x 3.75 meters = 281.25 meters





> http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=302340&page=444

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This is from mid-2014, but is still highly relevant


Philippines 2014 - Philippines The Next Asian Miracle


"Many countries have gone through this particular development phase"

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