Where's this one going?

[frizzers]

Where do you think this chart is headed next?

[notanewmember]

Up I think, as long as it stays above 10 going forward, but what is it a chart of?

[notinformation]

down

 

i think its the dow/gold ratio probably headed to 0.5

[notanewmember]

Oops! Sorry!

[drbubb]

It may need to retest the Low before going higher

[frizzers]

You're not supposed to know what it is as it affects bias - I just wanted to look at the the direction.

 

But yes it's the Dow-gold ratio.

[notanewmember]

I could devise poll where there would be 5 random old charts and then reveal their outcomes. If necessary I could change the numbers on the right hand side of the scale (maybe divide by a constant number). It is true if we know what the chart is, there will be some cognitive bias.

[Van]

For followers of this forum especially... it's pretty obvious what the chart is.

 

And to answer: Up then down. Or maybe down then up.

[Van]

A far more useful and pertinent question would be what it means if the chart goes one way or the other, and how best to position yourself to mitigate the risks in the event of either extremity?

[drbubb]

I like doing this sort of test with Ratios, since the chart pattern may not be instantly recognizable.

 

But the breaking of trends can still be important.

 

When would you be most interesting in buying THIS ratio?

 

[frizzers]

Here are some support levels.

 

 

Note that 5.80 in 1990 and 2011.

 

I think this is an important ratio to think about at present.

[Jake]

I think we'll see a nice downward curve to well below 5.8 by mid 2015, maybe sooner.

[Jake]

Btw what's this "support" at 5.80?

 

I thought support was around 1:1? 1980 and 1932...or can both be "abberations"?