CHARTS - for Everyday Viewing

[drbubb]

GEI's CHARTS :  Channel-GE : MP : PP : Acore : Fringe : / GStk : LQD : News : kitco :  Tony-C jk : sj : 2 : im t55:

==========================================

Charts: GOLD / USD / china gld // IWM / CU : wti / PreMkt / Live: Spy vsSOXX: SPX 12 inv :  VIX : Tza : DAX : world : UKv2

 :  ::

: : :

:

>News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

/ 8yr: 12mo B : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d : bx / SLV-lv: SILvG :

>6mos : Dxy : Tlt : Gbs : Gld : Gdx : Hui : Slv : DXY : Eur / SPY :

[drbubb]

CYCLE Tester - Compare Current cycle, with the prior one. GLD-12mos

Compare 5mos & 4mos earlier

----delay: 5 months---->

---- :

 PODCAST LINKS:
What-Really-Happened ---- :: http://www.republicbroadcastingarchives.org/category/michael-rivero/
KMO's C-realm podcast ---- :: http://c-realm.com/
Lorenzo / Pschedelic Salon :: https://archive.org/details/PsychedelicSalon-all
Gnostic Media / Jan --------- :: http://www.gnosticmedia.com/category/gnosticpodcast/
FORUMS : Post-Flv. : http://postflaviana.org/community/index.php
Dan Carlin History--- : http://www.dancarlin.com/hh-55/ : commonsense :
Ben Franklin History : http://www.benfranklinsworld.com/category/podcast/
CNU podcasts >2014: http://podbay.fm/show/671600858 ====
*Holds shares in jr co's, with project generative exploration
Cash and Book Value per Yahoo: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RRI.V+Key+Statistics
============

#1 : 2 : 3 : 4 : 5 : ? x y z : Bells: 10d :3mos / ff mux gzz gdxj = N : 2 : A :

20 Stocks

FEB 2017 prices 07/06/16 ===== 02/09/17 =====
IMA x y 212000 0.200 0.290 61,480 0.395 83,740
WM x y 837500 0.180 0.070 58,625 0.075 62,813
LOT x y 150000 0.120 0.145 21,750 0.095 14,250
GCM x y 111532 0.190 0.145 16,172 0.095 : sold 0.145: $16,172

NCF x y 60000 0.630 0.125 7,500 0.140 8,400

LAM y 15000 0.980 0.230 3,450 0.630 9,450
ZC- y 20000 0.500 0.235 4,700 0.255 5,100
pnp y 150000 0.360 0.030 4,500 2.270 3,405
BQE y 150000 0.200 0.030 4,500 0.050 7,500
PCY 1150 55.15 3.190 3,669 5.190 5,969

====

Giga : 02,000 x $00.70 = $ 1,400
ORA : 01,600 x $01.80 = $ 2,880
VIR : 01,000 x $01.27 = $ 1,270
Whm: 12,500 x $0.075 = $ 0,938
NAM: 16,666 x $0.065 = $ 1,083

eln- : 10,666 x $0.030 = $ 0,320 : No ?
==============================
6 co's: ------------------- > $ 7,891

(ora ) 1600 13.50 2.800 4,480 1.600 .2,560

nam/pfn 16667 0.630 0.150 2,500 0.165 2,750 > Sym chg (1:3 spl)

P ??

MNT ??

====

AXM 100000 0.130 0.015 1,500 0.060 6,000
RCT 32750 0.970 0.070 2,293 0.045 1,474
TVI 60000 0.170 0.025 1,500 0.020 1,200

KCC 16959 1.68 0.035 594 0.470 797

whm 12500 0.050 0.070 875 0.045 563

mum - 100K 0.107 0.XXX ----- $0.015 1,500

AGE.au 60000 0.140 $0.010 755 0.020 1,200 : Aud
PHI 12541 3.100 0.075 941 0.035 439

CYUR - 150K 0.062 0.XXX ----- $.0035 525

giga - 4,000 $1.59 0.XXX ----- $0.090 360

NL -     0,609 $4.22 0.XXX ----- $0.550 335
vir/mrb 1,000 0.60 0.015 541 0.005 180 >> 36k became 1,000 VIR shs @ $1.79
RVL ?    2600? 4.55 0.080 457 0.060 156

ROCAF 130000 0.310 $0.005 843 .0009 117
PAN 2500 8.49 0.135 338 0.045 113

===

DXY ... update

EUR in USD ... All-Data :

Old Stocklist

: #1-5 : #6-10 : 11-15 : 16-20 : 21-25 : 26-30 : 31-35 :

JULY 2016 prices 07/06/16 ===
IMA 212000 0.200 0.290 61,480
WM 837500 0.180 0.070 58,625
LOT 150000 0.120 0.145 21,750
GCM 111532 0.190 0.145 16,172 : sold 0.145: $16,172
sri 210000 0.160 0.060 12,600
axy 20000 0.770 0.540 10,800 : @ $0.7335 : $14,670

fdi ------ 44070 ------- 0.670 + 29,526 :
NCF 60000 0.630 0.125 7,500
ZC- 20000 0.500 0.235 4,700
PNP 150000 0.360 0.030 4,500
BQE 150000 0.200 0.030 4,500
=== 202,627 ------- -------- : $16,172 ++
ORA 16000 1.350 0.280 4,480
PCY 1150 55.15 3.190 3,669
LAM 15000 0.980 0.230 3,450
PFN 50000 0.210 0.050 2,500
RCT 32750 0.970 0.070 2,293
prz,h 80000 0.250 0.020 1,600
TVI 60000 0.170 0.025 1,500
AXM 100000 0.130 0.015 1,500
taj 40000 0.250 0.035 1,400 : @ $0.06 : $2,400
PHI 12541 3.100 0.075 941
=== 23,332

urc 17000 0.310 0.055 935
WHM 12500 0.050 0.070 875
ROCAF 130000 0.310 $0.005 843
AGE 60000 0.140 $0.010 755
nbr 16400 0.860 0.040 656
KCC 16959 1.68 0.035 594
MRB 36061 0.60 0.015 541
RVL 26000 4.55 0.080 457
PAN 2500 8.49 0.135 338
eln 10666 4.67 0.030 320
00,000

vnckf 10000 1.01 0.035 350
EMR 7000 3.85 0.035 245
MAI 1600 0.26 0.125 200
ARC 10000 2.15 0.015 150
IB - 189 0.00 0.750 142

===

symbol YrEnd: 4/27-- : 12/31- : shs- : C$Value : C$-New
GDXv $ 18.38 : $ 19.76 : $ 13.72 : ===== : ===== : ======

ZKB - : 8 units : $ 0.000 : $ 411.0 : 8.00 k : ( 14.4k)

====
Total :

========== : HKx5

0010 : $26.00 / $19.98 : also : hk101 / 12 :
3081 : $39.17 / $29.80 : note: 1604/39.17= 41 / 29.80 x41 = $1221
1051 : $00.54 / $0.220 : $1221/ 0.220 = 5550
0766 : $00.86 / $0.166 : $1221/ 0.166 = 7355
8088 : $05.00 / $0.195 :
====

[TTID]

DrBubb said:

Do we need more charts pages like this?

 

Yes, please.

It's particularly helpful when you look at the same item from more than one angle, to get confirmation of the analysis.

For instance, you often observe volume in relation to price, or mention relevant areas of support or resistance, like moving averages or Bollinger Bands.

This prompts curiosity and inspires deeper enquiry into the background of these indicators and how they can be applied to other stocks, funds, indicators, etc.

Thanks for your efforts.

[AceofKY]

1. For the fundamentals investor, what TA should be looked at to avoid buying at a bad time?

2. For the fundamentals investor who feels that his equity has now risen so much that it is substantially overvalued, what TA would indicate a "top" or good place to sell?

[drbubb]

Currencies up as much as 14% (EUR) against the USD from the year-end 2016 Low

FX-All : 2017 : 2016-17 : 2015-17 : 2014-17 : 2013-18 : since 2010 : w/MA's : since 2006 :

FX-All : 2013-17 :

since 2010 : w/MA's : updated to May 2018

since 2006 :

==

BTC - 10d : 2mos : 32-months

: all-data :

 

 

==================

Long term, Weekly GOLD Chart - New Source, a very nice looking chart

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48521904334&a=390533047&r=665

> source: http://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/9

CHART Links added --

AceofKY said:

1. For the fundamentals investor, what TA should be looked at to avoid buying at a bad time?

good question - and here's an answer:
if a stock is making new highs on lighter volume, it is time to be very cautious.
if you look deeper, and see "a five wave structure", it may be time to exit. (shall I define that- show a picture?)

AceofKY said:

2. For the fundamentals investor who feels that his equity has now risen so much that it is substantially overvalued, what TA would indicate a "top" or good place to sell?

 

as above.
btw, if a stock keeps rising on high volume, you may want to stay on for the ride, even if overvalued

 

(chart links):

symbol YrEnd: 4/27-- : 12/31- : shs- : C$Value : C$-New
IMA- : $ 0.235 : $ 0.220 : $ 0.255 : 210k : $ 46.2K : $53.6K
WM- : $ 0.045 : $ 0.050 : $ 0.025 : 837k : $ 46.0K : $20.9K
EDV- : $ 4.250 : $ 6.200 : $ 7.630 : 2.8 k : $ 17.4K : $21.4K
LOT- : $ 0.060 : $ 0.070 : $ 0.045 : 150k : $ 10.5K : $06.8K
NCF- : $ 0.210 : $ 0.170 : $ 0.085 : 060k : $ 10.2K : $5.10k
VIT - : $ 0.110 : $ 0.140 : $ 0.155 : 060k : $ 8.40K : $9.30k
AXY- : $ 0.325 : $ 0.375 : $ 0.460 : 020k : $ 7.50K : $9.20k
MOX-: $ 0.210 : $ 0.215 : $ 0.180 : 025k : $ 5.38K : $4.50k
LAM- : $ 0.365 : $ 0.315 : $ 0.285 : 016k : $ 5.04K : $4.56k
GPM-: $ 0.150 : $ 0.200 : $ 0.115 : 025k : $ 5.00K : $2.88k
FCO- : $ 0.095 : $ 0.180 : $ 0.115 : 020k : $ 3.60K : $2.30k
GDXv $ 18.38 : $ 19.76 : $ 13.72 : ===== : ===== : ======

ILC- - : $0.000 : $ 0.000 : $ 0.070 : 52.5 k : ( 3.68 k)

OOO-: $0.000 : $ 0.000 : $ 0.110 : 143.5k: ( 14.4k)

PNP - : $0.000 : $ 0.000 : $ 0.040 : 150.0k: ( 14.4k)

SRI - -: $0.000 : $ 0.000 : $ 0.030 : 210.0k: ( 14.4k)

VGZ - : $0.000 : $ 0.000 : $ 0.430 : 25.0 k: ( 14.4k) <C$ / US$0.31 / targ-$0.34
ZC - - : $0.285 : $ 0.260 : $ 0.135 : 100K :

ZKB - : $0.000 : $ 0.000 : $ 0.030 : 8.00 k : ( 14.4k)

SOLD

SAS - : $ 0.250 : $ 0.285 : $ 0.430 : 025k : $ 7.13K : $10.8k > SAS now 2,265 shares of KGI

AWV - : $ 0.027 : $ 0.045 : $ 0.049 : 600k : $ 27.0K : $29.4K > $41.1k : AWV* : ave. of $0.0685

====
Total : ($199.4k) : 147.1 + 33.2 + 19.0 = $199.3
Total : ($183.6k) : 132.1 + 34.4 + 17.1 = $183.6

Sold :

SAS- : $ 0.250 : $ 0.285 : $ 0.430 : 025k : $ 7.13K : $10.8k > KGI : $6.68 x 2,265= $15,130 /25k = $0.605

AWV - : $ 0.027 : $ 0.045 : $ 0.049 : 600k : $ 27.0K : $29.4K > AWV* : $41.1k or ave. of $0.0685

===========

[AceofKY]

if a stock is making new highs on lighter volume, it is time to be very cautious.

if you look deeper, and see "a five wave structure", it may be time to exit. (shall I define that- show a picture?)

 

Typically I make my purchases when the stock is falling in a correction. I will assume that the same thing applies when a stock is falling: look for volume to start drying up.

 

Please show the five wave structure.

[Financial Planner]

I plan to start a section on Technical Analysis, or maybe do a podcast.

 

Please post your questions here, so I know what types of issues to cover

HPs:

 

Some say that the US crash will then revert to a doubling of the previous high (namely Tom O). I believe this is because the US will allow inflation to run rampant.

 

However, in ECB land and MPC land we have a stated target for inflation. What do you think will happen here after the crash?

[frizzers]

However, in ECB land and MPC land we have a stated target for inflation. What do you think will happen here after the crash?

 

A crash is not a given, but one thing I expect to happen is that means of calculating inflation will be re-jigged so as to hide the inflation. The excuse given will be that the current method is inaccurate. This has happened before and will happen again.

[drbubb]

(the first post is from HPC, and I thought I would post the response here on GEI also):

 

QUOTE(Jonnybegood @ Jun 29 2007)

Firstly I love the way that Bears will use the statistic and data when its good for them but totally ignore or dismiss it when it still shows HPI, I don't think many can argue with the LR data and If/When it shows negative the Bears will be first to back their claim.

Live by the Sword you die by the sword.

= = =

 

Okay. That's a fair point.

I have been waiting for someone to say,

"Okay, Bubb, since your indicator shot up back in November 2005, why didnt you come out and warn us about possible HPI rises?"

 

That would be a very fair question. So I will answer it:

 

+ At first, I didnt believe the jump in the BB would be sustained,

 

+ By early Jan. 2006, I had to accept that the BB was holding gains, so I changed my tune from:

"Expect a crash cruise speed slide" to "We are two turns of the credit screw from a crash"::

Perhaps that change was too subtle for some, but I stopped defending the immediate slide argument,

 

+ I did not start warning about a house price jump, because I felt (and still feel) the market is very

overvalued, and buying at these prices is too risky. I did not want to contribute to the pressures

which result in people overpaying

 

The risks were high in 2006, and they are even higher now with the BB index pointed down.

The property bulls had better hope that bellwether reverses upwards soon

= =

 

See "Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics" thread:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=50136

[bob monkhouse]

whats the difference between simple, exponential and weighted moving averages? Do any of you have a preference between MA's and bollinger bands?

[beerhunter]

Only just spotted this thread.

A couple of questions;

1) All TA I've seem is based on combinations of open/high/low/close or volume... is it possible to do TA on other measures? And how successful are they?

2) Shouldn't SA include seasonality factors? For example when dividens are payable, or companies providing seasonal products/services?

3) How should you choose your indicators? Personally I'm using;

- BB (to indicate possible movements.. but not the direction)

- MA (to show where the current price relative to the past / trends)

- Vol

along with a combination of line drawing for trends/support/resistance.

Also as a learning exercise, I've just started trying out one new indicator each month (currently stochastic oscillator), to get a feeling about how reacts, and whether its a benefit.

[drbubb]

whats the difference between simple, exponential and weighted moving averages?

Do any of you have a preference between MA's and bollinger bands?

 

Simple: weight every day the same

Exponential: give higher weighting to most recent

Weighted: depends on weighting system used?

 

WHICH MA's do I Use?

 

My favorite daily MA"s are: 21d, 76d, and 252d (d=days)

 

Why?

21d = a fibonacci number; and the average number of trading days in a month

76d = sits between 55d and 89d (both fibos), and seems to work well (for some reason)

252d = 1 year; the usual number of trdaing days in a year (250d would work the same way)

 

I prefer these to the standard ones of: 20d, 50d, 200d, etc.

[drbubb]

A couple of questions;

 

1) All TA I've seem is based on combinations of open/high/low/close or volume... is it possible to do TA on other measures? And how successful are they?

 

Sorry. Like what measures?

 

2) Shouldn't SA include seasonality factors?

For example when dividends are payable, or companies providing seasonal products/services?

 

Yes. If you can get good data, it is worthwhile to use it.

But it is only an indication of an influence. Seasonals do not work every year.

 

3) How should you choose your indicators? Personally I'm using;

- BB (to indicate possible movements.. but not the direction)

- MA (to show where the current price relative to the past / trends)

- Vol

along with a combination of line drawing for trends/support/resistance.

 

Also as a learning exercise, I've just started trying out one new indicator each month (currently stochastic oscillator), to get a feeling about how reacts, and whether its a benefit.

 

Sounds like a good start.

I suggest working hard to keep Volume on your list of tools.

Listrening to Tom Obrien might help you understand how he uses it

[drbubb]

New LINK: Gold shares (HUI)-to- Gold Ratio: (updated May 2015 )

I think this chart gives some good indications of breakouts and turning points:

(see updated GLD chart, below)

INTERPRETATION: written in July 2007
...it certainly looks like Gold shares are set for an important breakout. / (note: they were !)
(Look at the SLO stochastics at the bottom, it hit 80, where we have seen breaks previously.
Out of three prior times, it failed only once- 1 year ago, and this try looks better than that one. )
And Gold Stock/HUI normally lead Gold, dragging it higher.

Looks like the Slingshot action is happening early, during the summer this time!
(as I suggested on several CW Radio podcasts)

====

 

GLD / Gold etf ... All data (100,480 wk) : updated May 2015 / HUI : GDX : GDXJ : SLV : SIL

 

Here's a long term chart on GLD ... All Data : 2-years : (Update June 2015)

The 500wk MA may prove to be important

GLD /Gold is stuck between the 100 wk MA ($120) and 500 wk MA ($110)

[beerhunter]

Sorry. Like what measures?

 

To give possibly the most interesting case (from a technical point of view) I've heard about;

 

I read somewhere (sorry don't have a link) that some traders use news feed analysis (this was several years ago, and may have been experimental at the time). I can see an equivalence to classical TA;

 

- at the simplest level, producing a moving average of the number of times a company/symbol appears each day possibly gives a indicator similar to BB (if the number of reports goes up above the average, the more likely that the price will change).

 

- at the more complex level, using something like Link Grammar it's possible to automatically work out syntactic information from a news feed, and whether the article is bear/bullish with respect to companies/symbols, indicating a possible direction.

 

I'm sure there are other influences...

 

- what are the best days to trade on... given the average trader and average week, would it be reasonable to say, monday is slow, work is done tue-thu, out thursday for a few drinks, friday is slow if your doing ok, or fast if you need to catch up?

 

- do sunny days push the markets up more than the norm... and rainy days fall more then the norm?

 

I'm wondering about these, based on the proverb "Sell in May and walk away"...

 

Yes. If you can get good data, it is worthwhile to use it.

But it is only an indication of an influence. Seasonals do not work every year.

 

True, I'm sure they don't work every year... and that the seasonal influence is only part of the force. But correct me if I'm wrong indications are what we work on to make a discussion to invest or not? So working with seasonals rather than against should (over a number of years) give an advantage.. possibly small, but still an advantage.

 

Sounds like a good start.

I suggest working hard to keep Volume on your list of tools.

Listrening to Tom Obrien might help you understand how he uses it

 

I've listened to a couple of Tom Obriens podcasts... very interesting, but with the language and unknown symbols, it runs a bit fast for me.. but I'm going to perisphere because I'm sure it gets easier.

 

Just one thought, it would be really nice (in terms of understanding) to hear a podcast and have the images of the charts appear in sync in the audio... perhaps CW could investigate and use it to their advantage? I'm happy to give a helping hand if I can.

[drbubb]

I read somewhere (sorry don't have a link) that some traders use news feed analysis (this was several years ago, and may have been experimental at the time). I can see an equivalence to classical TA;

 

= =

I've listened to a couple of Tom Obriens podcasts... very interesting, but with the language and unknown symbols, it runs a bit fast for me.. but I'm going to perisphere because I'm sure it gets easier.

 

I used to keep track of the phrase "Debt Bubble" (when I owned the domain debtBubble.com to see how many hits it got on Google.

For a few months, I saw an inverse correlation with stock indices, then it went away.

 

Here's an excerpt from that old website:

"What if house prices stop rising? Or what if they start falling?

Parabolic price rises, such as we have seen in the housing market in America (and in the UK as well), have a way of reversing themselves, if they are not strongly supported by fundamentals. The only fundamental reason for this rise is cheaper borrowing costs. The other factors which might support it: such as rapidly rising incomes, or rising rental values are just not there. This is easily- borrowed money chasing asset appreciation, not income. Indeed, in many parts of the US and the UK, rentals are now falling. Clearly, this debt-fuel housing speculation is not a sustainable situation.

 

Some feel it will go on until interest rates rise. They say, if rates stay low, there's nothing to worry about. But this thinking is wrong. Long term rates have begun to rise, but a rapid rise in rates is notb the only way to stop the upward spiral. There's another danger, that of a tightening of credit availability. And it grows more likely every day.

 

This is how I believe the bubble will burst:

Banks and securities buyers will stop providing debt on the same easy terms as before. A tightening of credit availability, will slow the housing market, and turn it down. Once it becomes apparent that credit is tighter and house prices are falling, the current virtuous cycle, pushing house prices higher and higher, will reverse and go into a vicious cycle. Houses prices will fall, and put loans in jeopardy. The lenders will react by lending less, and on less attractive terms. This will dry up demand for housing. The timing of this turn in housing may be soon. Indeed, it may be happening now, right in front of our eyes."

 

@: http://basic1.easily.co.uk/039016/00B012/drbubbeditorial.htm

 

 

= =

 

If you keep listening to Tom Obrien, on: www.TFNN.com, I am sure it will all be clearer after a while

[drbubb]

Long Term : 20 Year charts for Commodities
============
Gold....... : http://www.cstcharts.com/cgi-bin/chartge.pl?gc.m
Platinum. : http://www.cstcharts.com/cgi-bin/chartge.pl?pl.m
Copper... : http://www.cstcharts.com/cgi-bin/chartge.pl?hg.m
Crude Oil : http://www.cstcharts.com/cgi-bin/chartge.pl?cl.m
Unleaded : http://www.cstcharts.com/cgi-bin/chartge.pl?hu.m
NatGas... : http://www.cstcharts.com/cgi-bin/chartge.pl?ng.m

 

Example: (updated May 2015)

Copper (June 2015)

[drbubb]

LONG TERM: bear market rally

After the bull market ended in Oct 2007 the stock market declined for the next seventeen months, until Mar 2009. The total market loss for the SPX was 58% and the DOW 54%. As of monday/wednesday, when the SPX/DOW were making new recovery highs, the SPX had retraced 49% of that the decline, and the DOW 51%. We projected the potential for this type of bear market rally in early March when the SPX was trading in the low 700's.

Long Term Dow ... orig, chart : chart.B

/source: http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/cns&...#33;61248.entry

Above we have posted a chart of the DOW from 1929 to present. We plotted it on a log2 scale so that each box represents either a doubling or a 50% loss depending upon the trend. Notice during this time period there have only been four instances when the DOW has lost about 50% or more of market value: 1929-32, 1937-42, 1973-74 and 2007-09. In OEW terms these types of events are generally considered cycle waves. The exception, of course, is the 1929 cycle wave [5] top and the 2007 cycle wave [5] top. When the fifth cycle wave completes a Supercycle bull market, a supercycle bear market follows.

 

Next observe Cycle waves [1] through [4]. Notice that cycle wave [2] formed a double bottom (flat) and cycle wave [4] only a single bottom (zigzag). This is the rule of alternation: corrective waves of similar degree should alternate in wave structure. Throughout the entire 1932-2007 Supercycle bull market the rule of alternation applied. From the cycles waves labeled on the chart, to the Primary waves, Major waves, Intermediate waves and all waves of a lesser degree, not shown. When we take this rule of alternation one degree higher, from cycle wave to supercycle wave, it should also apply. Therefore it would make sense that the current supercycle bear market should form a double bottom (flat) to alternate with the single bottom (zigzag) of 1929-32.

Next observe after each 50% market value decline there was always, at least, a 50% retracement rally. The 1973-74 cycle wave [4] zigzag bottom naturally never revisted the lows again. The 1937-42 cycle wave [2] retraced 64% of the initial decline before turning over and heading back to the lows. During the 1929-32 supercycle bear market, the stock market lost 50% of its value in 1929, retraced 53% of that decline into 1930, before turning over to make substantial lower lows. Notice all three previous events had different outcomes. Yet, each experienced approximately a 50% total market loss, and then a 50% or more retracement rally. This is the exact reason why we projected a 50% retracement rally from the Mar 2009 SPX 667 low. History does repeat itself, but not in the exact same way.

If we next examine the time factor for each of these cycle type waves. We find that the two zigzags, (single bottoms), took between 23 months (1973-74) and 34 months (1929-32). While the 1937-42 flat, (double bottom), took 61 months. This is quite long compared to the other two cycle type waves. Naturally, since the flat wave structure is a double bottom, it takes longer to unfold than a single bottom zigzag. But something else occurred during cycle wave [2] that did not occur during the other two cycle type waves: the start of World War II. When we examine the 1937-1942 time period we find Germany invaded Poland in 1939. Then in 1940 Germany invaded France, and the Axis of Powers was formed between Germany, Italy and Japan. In 1941 Japan attacked Pearl Harbor which resulted in the USA entering the world war in 1942, the year cycle wave [2] ended. It is likely that the uncertainty of world war II extended this cycle wave. If this assumption is correct, then the current Supercycle wave should last about three years, and not five. In summary, we can conclude that the current Supercycle bear market should take the form of a flat, double bottom. The 58% total market loss was Wave A of this flat and it bottomed in Mar 2009 at SPX 667. The current 49% bear market retracement rally is wave B. Then upon conclusion of wave B, the final leg down to complete the C wave flat should bottom in 2010 with a retest of SPX 667. The year 2010 also coincides with the 4 year cycle low.

- Tony C.

[drbubb]

IF THEY BREAK SPAIN... they may break them all !

In the past, Spain's IBEX was usually the last stock index to break down, and then signaled a big slide was underway.

Spain's IBEX-30 ... update : two-yrs : Intraday

(update to May 2015)

 

(in 2010, I wrote):
A break of IBEX-10,000-10,200, followed by a break of 8,800 or so, would be a Big Deal.

(In edit):

Yes! IBEX fell to 6,000

==================

 

Looong Term Gold price - back to -- 1792 ! Peak was $1920 in 9/2011

 

> source: http://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-gold-chart-going-back-to-1792-2013-4

 

GLD : All data : All : fr.Peak 5-yrs : 4-yrs : 2-yrs-wk :

 

BTS / Bitstamp ... 8-years : Peak (for BTS) was $1,892 on 5/11/2017

 

Note the Gold low at around $250, followed by an upwards drive of less than 10X to $1920.

After the BTS low near $200, will wee see the Bitcoin rally end at less than 10X at around $1900?

[drbubb]

QUOTE (Diet Cola Addict @ Aug 12 2010, 10:05 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Here is a recreation, from my own datasets, of the most convincing gold graph I have seen. I think the original was a post from Steve Netwriter a couple of years ago, and it impressed me so much I have wanted to rework the data.

It shows the monthly change in gold price against real interest rate (Fed rate - US CPI), geometrically averaged since 1970. The moral of the story is that:

+ Gold is the place to run when real interest rates are negative, offering a positive return.
+ This bull market may well end only when real interest rates are above +3% (+1 % for a cautious outlook)
+ The error bars (one standard error) show how good a bull market this is - that increase for negative rates is most likely statistically significant p< 0.05 over 40 years.
==============

Bitcoin chart links - and an updated 5-mos chart:

Will Bitcoin punch its way through resistance at $1200?

 

On its way to $1400+

Or will it begin a deeper retracement to under $1000 again?

 

BTS - 5-mos : 1-mo : 5d:

 

I'm betting on the retracement.

And in my model portfolio, I am 100% hedged.

==============

 

GOLD and Bitcoins - will prices touch (or overlap) again soon?

BTX at 98% today... looks like the 4-6 months cycle for Gold is rolling over

 

Gold : $1277.5 ... GLD : 2-yr : 10d

 

Bitcoins : $1253 (98.1% of Gold)

 

I think both will drop, before heading higher.

The fundamental reason may be: Rising interest rates / Falling bond prices

 

TMF at $19.86 "and falling" as LT rates rise

The rise in TMF (3x Bull-on-Bonds) may be over ... 2yr : 10d-chart :

 

Rising interest rates, may turnaround the falling dollar, and "put the Kabash" on the rise in Gold and Bitcoins

These prices move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.

And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle:

 

TMF -etc. ... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos / 10-d :

 

Downloads? Th-4/6

Hr1 : Hr2 : Hr3 :

[drbubb]

Gold may NOW be making an important Retest Low !

 

 

GOLD, A familiar pattern?

 

I think so - just look at it !

GOLD chart: 1980-2000 correction, vs. 2010-2013:

 

Of particular similarity is:

+ Waves c-d-e-f : "the box", where d and f are about the same level

+ Wave-f : is the "mid-correction peak" !

+ Wave-g : holds above the c and e lows

+ Wave-h : the "last gasp" rally

+ Wave-i : the slide into: The Low at "i"

+ Wave-j : a small rally

+ Wave-k : Retest Low (higher than i)

========

If this pattern is repeating, Gold is now on/near the Retest Low

 

==

[drbubb]

From Dr Bubb's Diary : Dec.2013

Does WAR INFLATION ultimately drive stocks higher (when rates come down) ?

 

=

[drbubb]

All Data SPX chart ... : all data : all-log : 5-years

Log scale

[drbubb]

CURRENCIES:

A TURN in the Dollar, and maybe even in Gold may have happened this week.

 

There were some big reversals - and a Huge Jump in views here too - It's interesting how these go together

 

Mar.: -SPY-: Chg : volume/ GDX : Chg. : -GLD- : Chg : volume: x10.3? : WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l

18: 210.46 +2.50 : 206.M: 18.84 +0.91 : 112.37 +2.16 : 12.2M: 1,166.4 $44.69* 97.807 - 1.796 : 131.49 +2.49 : 03 : 086 / 166 : 1,472 /

19: 208.56 - 1.90 : 000.M: 18.71 -0.10 : 112.29 - 0.08 : 0.00M: 1,170.5 $45.60* 99.067 + 1.260 : 130.82 -0.67 : 06 : 092 / 528 : 2,000 /

20: 210.41 +1.85 : 149.M: 19.33 +0.62 : 113.57 +1.28 : 7.98M: 1,181.7 $46.45* 97.801 - 1.266 : 131.51 +0.69 : 02 : 094 / 281 : 2,281 /

 

(From above):

Will the Dollar Rally peter out below 99.50?

DXY / Trade-weighted USD ... update

And so it did - the Resistance near 99.50 held, and the DXY/dollar dropped

A TURN looks more powerful - in the AUD

... than in the EUR

Note that AUD is above the 21d-MA - but has not yet broken the down channel, and is below the 76d-MA.

(this is from a post as the possible Turn was happening):

=

Yesterday brought a Rare HUGE Move (down) in the USD !

 

Mar.: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l
17: 99.603 +0.106 : 129.00 +1.06 : 06 : 083 / 086 : 1,206 /
18: 97.807 - 1.796 : 131.49 +2.49 : 03 : 086 / 166 : 1,472 /

=========

-1.796 = - 1.80%

 

EUR (in USD) ... update

 

My old call that about $1.05 would be key support for the Euro is looking good

This is an old chart... Click for an UPDATE

 

As Updated

[drbubb]

Rows : 4X :

1: $-Gold : http://www.kitco.com/images/live/t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

2: Eur -$ : http://www.weblinks247.com/exrate/24hr-euro-small.gif

3: AuRmb : http://www.en.sge.com.cn/graph/images/graph/AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

4: Eur-Au : http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif

5: RUT -- : http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_russell_en_2.gif

6: $-- AG : http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif

7: AgRmb : http://www.en.sge.com.cn/graph/images/graph/AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

8: ? ? ?