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DrBubb's Diary - Feb. 2019 Trading - v.121

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Gold Coiled And Set To Break-Out?
| Daily US Market and Currency Reports Now Available (For 01/17/19)

_ says Elliottwave Analytics

"It is Still possible" - I said as I posted the chart below


What happened? SEE BELOW

GLD ... update : last: $121.02 - 1.09, -0.89%


GDXJ ... update : last: $29.33 - 0.91, -3.11%



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The DEBT problem may be far worse than you think

"The Borrowing requirements of the Fed are Exploding !"

David Stockman - Central Banks Created Fiscal Doomsday Machine


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ANTARCTICA : Ancient Octagonal Structure found, an entrance buried in the Ice

Whistleblower talks - with Images

"The coalition has gone back"

"There has been a Space fleet in existence, for at least the last 25 years"

"40 years thick walls on this structure"

"Ambient temperature of 60-80 degrees inside"

Linda Moulton Howe Live - Antarctica Whistleblower (01/23/2019)

Walls lined with hieroglyphics
Aliens are more than one race.
The ones I talked to who saw them:
They look and talk like us, but with minor differences;
Eyes and mouth different.  Most had more hair.
Stronger than us. Higher intellect.
The general consensus is: “they seeded us”

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I am Out... but not Done... with the Oil Sector "split package trade" (SPT)

Sold my ESV calls at $2.75 yesterday.

If we see a pullback, I will be looking for a re-entry point in OIH, its components, or other oil-related shares

This has been a successful and profitable experiment

My virtual OIL SECTOR PORTFOLIO, produced a profit of $22,820, 43.2% in about x weeks

Sym. / Price :  x-Qty: $-Value: Strike : Pmt.: $Surplus -Cost-: Profit  :
RDC  :$12.87 : x2500= 32,175 : $6.C : $15.0K: $15,050: $7,275: $7,775 - sold @$5.40, $6,225 profit
MDR : $ 9.31 : x2500= 23,275 : $5.C : $12.5K: $10,775: $6,400: $4,375 - sold @$4.35, $4,475 profit
ESV  : $ 4.70 : x5000= 23,500 : $2.C : $10.0K: $13,500:  $8,400: $5,100 - sold @$2.75, $5,350 profit
Total: =========== > 78,950 : ==== : $37.5K :  41,450 : 22,075 19,375

OIH  : $17.45: x3700= 64,565 : 20.C : $74.0K : ($9,435) 21,120: 11,685 : -BBck @$3,88, $6,770 profit

Overall expected profit = $31,060, but that is overstated , because of TV of OIH short
Actual profit, closed out: $22,820

$11,685/3700: $3.16, ($17.45-$3.16): $14.29 notional start-point for OIH: x3700= $52,873

Actual Return on Notional Starting point of short side: 43.2%

& OIH would have needed to Rise to $14.29 x 143.2% = $20.47, to gain the same

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V bottom in the stock market in 2019: similar to market collapses in 2001 & 2008


Monetary tightening by the Fed of the broad True Money Supply (TMS-2) is also now the same as in 2001 and 2008. TMS is bubble fuel and it has been cut - the result will be the same in 2019 as 2001 & 2008.@RandPaul pic.twitter.com/fukzjqm7rB

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Group #1 : update JNUG ($9.21), UGLD ($95.41), GDXJ ($30.22)


Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($2.82), CCO.t ($15.48), MUX.t ($2.50)


ABOVE CHART - updated to 2/6/2019 - what a move in GCM ! In fact, I have recent done some selling



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INFLATION - is WORSE than they are telling you it is...

Brace For Impact: As Credit-Asset Bubbles Pop, The Dominoes Start Falling


Costs are soaring despite the low rate of officially measured inflation. I recently found some notes from 1995–a long time ago, 24 years. The dot-com bubble–the first of this era’s three great asset bubbles–was inflating rapidly but official inflation was low, around 2.5% to 3% annually.

A slice of pizza was $1.50, a main dish in a Chinese restaurant was $4.50 and rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the S.F. Bay Area was $650/month. Now the pizza slice is $4.25 plus 9.25% tax, $4.65; the main dish is $11.95 plus 9.25% tax, $13.05, and rents for one-bedroom apartments far exceed $2,000/month in desirable neighborhoods.

Official inflation is $1 in 1995 equals $1.67 today. So a $1.50 slice of pizza in 1995 should cost $2.50 today, the $4.50 main dish should cost $7.50, and the $650 monthly rent should be $1,085. Real-world inflation has outstripped the bogus official rate in sector after sector. So TVs have dropped in price; big deal. How often do you buy a TV?

Costs have tripled in 24 years, but have wages tripled? No. 

In many cases, they haven’t even kept pace with official inflation, much less real-world inflation. How many people earning $40,000 in 1995 are now earning $67,000, the minimum increase needed to match the rise in official inflation? Nobody I know. How many positions paying $40,000 in 1995 are now paying $120,000 for the same job? I think we can safely say none.


Long-term distribution of gains continues to favor the top 1%.


## The majority of gains in income and wealth have flowed to the top 5%, and most of the gains in the top 5% have flowed to the apex of that income bracket. So when we read that average household wealth has increased or median wages have increased, the reality is these statistics mask the actual distribution of income and wealth gains, which are skewed heavily to the top 5% income/wealth brackets.

> https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/brace-for-impact-as-credit-asset-bubbles-pop-the-dominoes-start-falling/

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Inflation Indicators? / These stock indices are "running like a pack"

Oil moves are exaggerated, & SLV/Silver is somewhat the "odd man out"

SPY -vs: SLV, DBA< CRB, USO, OIH ... update : 270.14 -2.60, -0.95%


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Will Twitter be the first Social media company to "dustify" ?

TWTR ... update : 30.80 -3.36, -9.84%


Twitter Shares Drop as Company Reveals Disappointing User Numbers

Twitter shares dropped by as much as 10 percent Thursday as the company revealed its number of daily active users for the first time, disappointing investors. Only 39 percent of Twitter use the platform every day.

Reuters reports that following the recent release of Twitter’s daily active users for the first time, the company’s stock price has taken a hit. Twitter has notoriously never released their daily active user metrics in the past, instead revealing the percentage increase or decrease of its monthly active users.

But due to a recent decline in monthly active users — partly due to the social media firm’s crackdown on fake accounts — Twitter chose to reveal its daily active users and will no longer be publishing monthly active user figures.

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TZA is the 3X bear etf on the Russell 2000

I bought a few $9 calls @$1.60, as a sort of hedge for some long positions

TZA / xx ... update : Last; $10.74 +0.26


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Hmm, I wonder how these went Missing in Action?

Greenenergyinvestors.com metadata updates

We collected the majority of metadata history records for Greenenergyinvestors.com. Green Energy Investors has a poor description which rather negatively influences the efficiency of search engines index and hence worsens positions of the domain. Greenenergyinvestors has neither keywords, nor description at the moment. But the domain used to have both of them in May 27, 2012.

Title Description Keywords

January 02, 2018

Forums - Green Energy Investors



May 27, 2012

Green Energy Investors

Latest news, trader diaries, and blogs on rising energy prices, inflation, and the impact on the future of the planet and investments, including stock...

trader diaries, blogs, gold prices, energy prices, stock market, alternative energy, green...

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TOP 4 / are Not Option trades... Here are my Top 4 Positions right now.

GCM.t - is still #1 (by far), though I have done some selling in recent days

Top4: WM.t / Wallbridge, GCM.t, GZZ.v, MUX.t ... update :


I am not happy with the recent performance of MUX... but the others have been superb

Do not think MUX will suddenly "take fire".  It might, but I cannot promise that. I looks weak now.

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Your picks are on fire Dr B, shame I didn’t believe in GZZ, little bit like MUX.

For me McEwan, the man himself seems a good guy watching videos, I’ve sent them an email to ask questions, just don’t believe in the stock right now and staying out but watching.

Glad I followed your GCM and WM.t prompts though, particularly GCM. You’re much more disciplined about selling than I ever am, I suppose that comes with a cynical trading view. 

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PROFIT Growth? What profit growth?

Stock market may be in for a rude awakening as profits dry up, warns strategist MarketWatch

Morgan Stanley cuts 2019 S&P 500 EPS growth target to 1%

Blockbuster earnings, which until now have played a pivotal role in fueling the stock market’s multiyear over the past few years, could be a distant memory as corporate profits hit a wall.

Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, on Monday downgraded S&P 500’s earnings-per-share growth target for the year to 1% from 4.3% and warned of a looming earnings recession.

“Our earnings recession call is playing out even faster than we expected,” said Wilson in a report. “When we made our call for a greater than 50% chance of an earnings recession this year, we thought it might take a bit longer for the evidence to build.”

The strategist, whose views on the stock market are among the more subdued in the industry, believes the odds of a contraction in corporation’s bottom line are rising with the possibility of flat earnings in the first half and a “hockey stick” for the second half.

One doesn’t have to look far for clues on where the corporate sector’s performance is headed. Fourth-quarter earnings season, which is in the process of winding down, alone attests to the strategist’s lukewarm outlook.

As of Feb. 8, with 66% of S&P 500 SPX, +0.07%  components having announced results, fourth-quarter earnings rose 13.3%. If this holds, it will be the first quarter that the index has not posted an increase of 20%, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet Research. For the current quarter, U.S. companies are projected to report an earnings contraction of 4.1%, based on analysts’ median estimates in January. That is significantly deeper than the average 1.7% decline over the past 15 years, Butters said.

You can bet that the U.S.-China trade deal won’t help stocks — here’s why MarketWatch

The most probable scenario is a bad deal because China can’t afford to give the U.S. many concessions

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TRUMP at 52% - Best poll since Inaugural

Major Poll Shows Trump’s Approval Rating Keeps Getting Higher and Higher

After President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday, he got a boost when Rasmussen Reports showed that the President’s approval rating had jumped to 50 percent.

Now that the American people have had a week to think about his speech, he’s going even higher.

“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance,” Rasmussen reported Monday. “Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove.”

“Trump’s highest level of approval since shortly after his inauguration,” Rasmussen noted. “The latest figures include 39% who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing and 39% who Strongly Disapprove.”

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On 2/9/2019 at 4:47 PM, jerpy said:

Your picks are on fire Dr B, shame I didn’t believe in GZZ, little bit like MUX.

For me McEwan, the man himself seems a good guy watching videos, I’ve sent them an email to ask questions, just don’t believe in the stock right now and staying out but watching.

Glad I followed your GCM and WM.t prompts though, particularly GCM. You’re much more disciplined about selling than I ever am, I suppose that comes with a cynical trading view. 

3 out of 4 is not bad, eh?

GZZ is winning because of its large holding in RZZ, which I think is worth $13 or more.

Can't get them all right.  I'd be buying MUX now if it was performing better,  and I could be more sure about future good news.

Gold bar has been delayed a bit, but it should start up this month

Maybe MUX will benefit if/when the ounces start being produced and reported.

But the new performance might be taken for granted.  A big discovery near Gold bar or elsewhere would help.

I have enough GCM, that I can afford to take some profits.  But I am now sitting with more cash than I am accustomed to having.

Seeking opportunities in Oil & Gas (yesterday's jump in O&G shares came a bit to quickly for me.)

- And maybe in Silver-related calls

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Hmm.  Everyone is PUSHING GOLD on Kitco today.

Even as the price eases with a strong dollar

DXY / Trade-weighted USD ... 6-mos - at $97.06, pushing up again today (Tuesday)


Recent dollar strength has had a profound impact on gold pricing. On January 31st, 2019 gold prices reached the highest trading point this year reaching a high of $1330 per ounce. As the dollar gained value, gold which is paired with the U.S. dollar began to move to lower pricing. As recently as last week gold traded to $1306 as the dollar gained value.

Today gold futures basis the most active April Comex contract is currently trading at $1311.90 which is a decline of .50%, which amounts to a loss of $6.70 per ounce. Considering that the dollar index is up today by .46% it is easy to discern that today’s decline in the precious yellow metal is primarily based upon the dollar.

When we look at spot gold which is currently fixed at $1308.30, we can see that the decline today is 100% a direct result of dollar strength. According to the Kitco gold index normal trading actually bid the precious metal higher by a fractional amount of $.70, however after factoring in a decline of $6.40, based upon a strong dollar, spot gold is trading off by $5.70.

> Gary Wagner : https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-02-11/Friday-s-Deadline-Will-Have-a-Profound-Impact-on-the-Dollar.html?sitetype=fullsite

GOLD's retest

Last Thursday, gold tested the $1,310 level, trading as low as $1,306 before coming back and closing over $1,310. This action is healthy for markets because it shakes out the weak hands while building new momentum at the same time.

It’s Monday and here we go again retesting the $1,310 level, with gold under pressure this morning. This action is a combination of the shakeout and a market in consolidation or the greatest time of uncertainty.

This pattern is always the biggest challenge, which is why we must understand the levels that gold is trading in. We have determined that the ultimate support is $1,300, but we expect $1,310 to hold. Watch the price action around these levels. We expect them to hold and have $1,300 as a backup.

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SILVER related Charts


SIL ($26.35) - vs SLV, GLD ... update : SLV ($14.72, r-1.79) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%)


Ratio : SIL-to-SLV : 1.79


SLV ($14.72,) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%)


Ratio: SLV -to-UGL (r-38.2%)


David Morgan - Silver Will Shine Again Kerry Lutz - audio

MP3 : mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/DavidMorgan07Feb19.mp3

SILVER should outpace Gold ... on the upside

"Last month, gold rose 3.46%. Silver rose 3.94%. That’s only about 14% better, but the point is that this pattern is the norm, not the exception, when precious metals are rising.

The last time precious metals prices were really on a tear, silver outperformed gold even more:

  • From the bottom of the crash of 2008, London PM gold rose from $713.50 to $1,895 in September of 2011. Gold was up 165.6%.
  • From the same starting point, London PM silver rose from $8.88 to $48.70 in April of 2011. Silver was up 448.4%—and in less time.

This is why I’ve said that if you’re a gold bull—which I am this year—you should be a raging silver bull."

> https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-02-08/Silver-Not-Just-the-Poor-Man-s-Gold.html

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Trump captures (hearts in) Italy

God Emperor Trump - Italy Carnevale di Viareggio

Styx had fun with it

The Memetic Meaning of the Italian God Emperor Trump Float

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Bitcoin charts starting to look better

Does the 4yr MA now rule the charts?

BTC ... update : $3,575



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1 hour ago, drbubb said:

Bitcoin charts starting to look better

Does the 4yr MA now rule the charts?

BTC ... update : $3,575



Bitcoin Core’s Next Goal is to Increase Bitcoin’s Fixed Supply and Stop “Halvening”

Ethereum is a better bet since they are dedicated to migrate to proof of stake and thus will require less dilution in future to maintain security of the chain compared to bitcoin which are already talking about removing the 21 million coin limit. Additionally staking will earn income as a reward for securing the chain, proportional to the Ether staked.

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