Sir Humphrey Posted October 29, 2007 Report Share Posted October 29, 2007 wages are barely rising (except for the Public Sector) and food and energy prices are rising. It won't have that support. 2-2.5% is "barely rising" in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosco Posted October 29, 2007 Report Share Posted October 29, 2007 MYTH EXPLODING ... so Central London is different, is it?? Whodathunkit?: the wealthy are losing confidence in bricks and mortar as an investment. There has been a big drop in City bonuses... <a href="http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle2759795.ece" target="_blank">http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle2759795.ece</a> QUOTE House prices fell for the first time in two years this month, sending a shudder through millions of homeowners already hit by rising mortgage repayments and more expensive borrowing. The outlook for homeowners is likely to worsen with news that the wealthy have lost confidence in bricks and mortar as an investment. There has been a big drop in City bonuses being used to purchase prime property in Central London and in the popular second-homes areas, triggering fears of price falls in the South West, East Anglia and the Cotswolds. Today’s figures will increase the anxiety of millions who have banked on ever-rising prices to fund their old age and pay off mortgages. To add to their misery came a new warning from America that Britain would not escape the fallout from US as the property market there went through its worst recession in 16 years. Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University, who forecast the end of the dot.com bubble in March 2000, told The Times that the slow-down would start in London. . . The amount of City bonus cash flowing into prime London property and into second and third homes will fall by 60 per cent to £2 billion in the coming year, according to one of the country’s largest property agents. This will lead to at least six months of falling prices in Central London, predicted Savills, the estate agency, which specialises in selling houses worth £1 million and more. Also at risk are the Cotswolds, the South Westand parts of Norfolk, Suffolk and Kent. Savills gave a warning that the top end of the property ladder and the second-home market could be hit hardest because financiers, accountants and lawyers no longer saw property as a good buy and were more likely to put money into hedge funds. Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research predicted that the credit crunch, combined with five interest rate rises in just over a year, would cause prices to fall for the rest of this year and into early 2008. But it suggested that the housing market would shrug off the difficulties within a year and that by 2010 annual growth would be back at up to 7 per cent because of an imbalance of supply and demand. = = Now where are those exaggerating sacks of VI spin when the reality comes spilling out?? Some EA's should now be chewing some tough crusts of humble pie on this news. Aarghh ! this kinda news hitting the broadsheets is bad timing for me as am still waiting to exchange contracts on the sale of my flat..... hopefully the buyer is out of the country for a few weeks !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 30, 2007 Report Share Posted October 30, 2007 Aarghh ! this kinda news hitting the broadsheets is bad timing for me as am still waiting to exchange contracts on the sale of my flat..... hopefully the buyer is out of the country for a few weeks !! Most people have trained themselves to ignore bearish news articles. So you should be okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted November 4, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2007 That last chart does no include the recent move in gold as the data is a few months old. By the way, for the prices in ounces we have for UK/London/Scotland for this time period: Average 275.28 426.37 233.40 High 695.50 1,077.67 507.41 Low 80.89 107.19 76.73 Source: http://www.ma.hw.ac.uk/~fischer/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hogwild Posted November 4, 2007 Report Share Posted November 4, 2007 Interesting charts Frizzers! Well found. The big swing down this time in "real" terms will not be hidden from view because of inflation. The idea that UK property only goes up is going to be totally demolished. Sincerely Hogwild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 5, 2007 Report Share Posted November 5, 2007 Interesting charts Frizzers! Well found. The big swing down this time in "real" terms will not be hidden from view because of inflation. The idea that UK property only goes up is going to be totally demolished. Looks like the "dead cat bounce" should be over. How up-to-date are the prices? Can you give us a calculation as of end-October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted November 5, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2007 Currently, with gold at £380 per ounce and the average UK house at £184,131, you can now buy that house for 485 ounces of gold. The rise in prices we saw in 2006 was nothing more than a bear market rally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HollandPark Posted November 5, 2007 Report Share Posted November 5, 2007 Currently, with gold at £380 per ounce and the average UK house at £184,131, you can now buy that house for 485 ounces of gold. ?? So the BLUE line has fallne back below 500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted November 5, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2007 I believe so. That chart is not up-to-date. It lags by a few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted November 5, 2007 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2007 We are re-testing the 2006 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 31, 2007 Report Share Posted December 31, 2007 Let's look at the UK. Here's up-to-date, what's happening: "House prices are crashing - asking prices were down 3.2% in December from November, housing website Rightmove reported, way down from the 0.7% fall in November. Prices in London, center of the U.K. bubble and of world capital flows, fell by an average of $56,000 in December, the worst in Britain: /see: http://www.inteldaily.com/?c=140&a=4603 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 31, 2007 Report Share Posted December 31, 2007 Meanwhile, gold is now up to £420 an ounce so that ratio is falling fast I wonder how you feel now about having sold to buy gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted December 31, 2007 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2007 Interesting article and site. Meanwhile, gold is now up to £420 an ounce so that ratio is falling fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gone west Posted January 1, 2008 Report Share Posted January 1, 2008 ?? So the BLUE line has fallne back below 500? Thats very reassuring. Sold my home in late 2003 and then converted sterling proceeds to gold/oil and Canadian equity over the subsequent 8 months. Looks like I managed to get fairly close to the peak (for once). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 2, 2008 Report Share Posted January 2, 2008 Well done, GW. I wonder if the London falls will pick up pace in the second half of 2008. This from Fred Harrison: Some advice he has for UK authorities: "First, they should avoid making the downturn even worse. If, for example, the Treasury sticks with its plan to level down the tax rate on capital gains, there will be a sharp drop in prices in the summer. Owners of buy-to-let properties are waiting for the new tax year to offer their apartments for sale, when the CGT rate will be cut from 40% to 18%. The effect will be a crash in prices, denting confidence even further." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gone west Posted January 2, 2008 Report Share Posted January 2, 2008 Well done, GW. I wonder if the London falls will pick up pace in the second half of 2008. This from Fred Harrison: Some advice he has for UK authorities: "First, they should avoid making the downturn even worse. If, for example, the Treasury sticks with its plan to level down the tax rate on capital gains, there will be a sharp drop in prices in the summer. Owners of buy-to-let properties are waiting for the new tax year to offer their apartments for sale, when the CGT rate will be cut from 40% to 18%. The effect will be a crash in prices, denting confidence even further." Thanks. I saw that on consa's site, I wonder if there will be much capital gains left for the BTLers by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted February 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2008 According to latest data, Ken and Chelsea continues to rise at an annualized rate of 27%. Rises also for Hammersmith and Fulham and Westminster. This 'crash' hasn't reached prime Central London yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 10, 2008 Report Share Posted February 10, 2008 According to latest data, Ken and Chelsea continues to rise at an annualized rate of 27%.Rises also for Hammersmith and Fulham and Westminster. This 'crash' hasn't reached prime Central London yet. Hard to believe. What's the data source? (so much about London property seems to be lies. Hong Kong is much more honest and transparent.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted February 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2008 I knew you were going to say that. I can't remember the source but I read it on HPC. Either Halifax, Nationwide or Rightmove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 11, 2008 Report Share Posted February 11, 2008 "Annualised" returns are poor guides to the future, and dont even tell us much about the present. Do you really think that houses prices are still RISING in London? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted February 11, 2008 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2008 No, they rose in parts of London at an equivalent annualized rate of 27-28%. I'll try and dig up the source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted February 14, 2008 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2008 A lot of eyes at HPC were on yesterday's Allsop auction of residential property a lot of which is in London. We didn't get the falls a lot of people were looking for. In fact in many cases the opposite. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=68226 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 14, 2008 Report Share Posted February 14, 2008 Remember, the UK is a year (or more) behind the US in the cycle, and it may take a littkle longer for the downturn to BITE in Central London. I reckon it is biting hard through out the Uk now, and as it came late (is coming late) to New York, it may come late to Central London too. Eventually, I continue to believe that London will be the GROUND ZERO of the global property bust. And selling now, if you still can, will prove very wise. Greetings and best wishes to the GEI lurker (& occasional poster) whom I met yesterday, who had the great sense to sell in London to buy in Hong kong. Escaping the foolishness of Brown's ex-Miracle, to enjoy the advantages of a more genuine miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted February 14, 2008 Report Share Posted February 14, 2008 I've read your thoughts on the HK boom but as someone without the financial clout of the heavyweights on GEI and, more importantly, a HK income, I was wondering how I might tap into the potential. Not so keen on REITs but can anyone suggest any equities that stand to benefit ? Isn't the impending US recession going to have a fairly profound inflationary impact on the HK economy cos of the HK$ peg to the greenback ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 14, 2008 Report Share Posted February 14, 2008 I've read your thoughts on the HK boom but as someone without the financial clout of the heavyweights on GEI and, more importantly, a HK income, I was wondering how I might tap into the potential. Not so keen on REITs but can anyone suggest any equities that stand to benefit ? Isn't the impending US recession going to have a fairly profound inflationary impact on the HK economy cos of the HK$ peg to the greenback ? I can, but with a few words of caution. I like two HK-listed equities, but started buying too soon: I think they are trading at something like a 40-50% discount to the NAV of their property assets Link to : thread in the GEI members section (coming) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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