Pixel8r Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Breaking: Gold & silver crashing. Oh wait....my monitor is upside down :lol: Thats what happens when you live in New Zealand Drat to slow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 You have heard of China? Yes, that is why I say 900 and not 600. Since the institution of QE, I have thought the floor at 900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 According to Larry Pesavento we need to see a price movement of more than $40 for a confirmed breakout. I wonder if that will happen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Fair enough, but I think your reasoning is faulty. We're over 1,000 for a while now, despite heavy cartel artillery trying to bomb the price down every day. That suggests a big buyer is always buying the dips. China has something like 500 billion toilet paper dollars to play with and they know that it is only a matter of time before the dollar game implodes. They are on an urgent timeline to get rid of their dollars for hard assets and businesses. China may well buy the IMF gold at 13 billion (IF the IMF allows them to) - that still leaves China with 487 billion to play with - that, IMHO, is why we won't see 900 as a basis level. China is buying the dips on an urgent basis with a virtually unlimited piggy bank, and other central banks are also accumulating gold on the QT. If there is a market crash and some big folks get margin calls, then yes there may be heavy selling of metals as happened the last time - only this time there are active buyers, and any big gold dip will soon be over and it will continue it's relentless gold bull. I don't disagree, which is why I have a cash reserve...in order to buy silver on a possible dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 What if there is no dip? Surely logic dictates you buy now, before it goes up any more? When it is 30 heading to 50+ will you still be looking for an entry point? If I did not already have around 70% of my liquid worth in gold and silver already, then yes I would be buying. However, I am satisfied with what I have now... and considering that if I bought more I would be 100% in metals, I will restrain myself for bargain basement prices. If there is no dip and the bargain prices do not come, I would not have lost out much due to the large position I already have.... and besides metal I will still have cash in a relatively strong currency. I think before this bull market is over, we will see people panicking out of positions every which way. I want to be laid back and completely comfortable with my holding, and also be in a position to take advantage of any volatility or chaos in the market. Expect the unexpected. From: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 22, 2009 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 I think what cgnao means is watch gold's contango move to backwardation. Gold is always in contango, ... That's correct. Sorry, should have paid more attention. No backwardation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueNorth Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 If I did not already have around 70% of my liquid worth in gold and silver already, then yes I would be buying. However, I am satisfied with what I have now... and considering that if I bought more I would be 100% in metals, I will restrain myself for bargain basement prices. I am similarly allocated. If there is no dip and the bargain prices do not come, I would not have lost out much due to the large position I already have.... and besides metal I will still have cash in a relatively strong currency. I think before this bull market is over, we will see people panicking out of positions every which way. I want to be laid back and completely comfortable with my holding, and also be in a position to take advantage of any volatility or chaos in the market. Expect the unexpected. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted September 22, 2009 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Did $100 gold in the 1970s prove strong resistance then strong support once breached? Looking at the charts it seems so, but I can't find a chart that covers that period in detail. The chart below is detailed enough to see that breaching $100 was a picnic in the park when compared with the dance around $1,000. After $100 had been taken, it became ultimate support. http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/Gold_USD_LOG.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Sounds like you are planning on trading the volatility, in metals and in currencies. That is the path to ruin, IMHO. When the bank holiday comes, and it will, your 30 per cent will be in currency that you will NOT be able to touch - in toilet paper that will be decimated when (IF?) the banks open again, and you won't be able to do a thing about it. Sure, you will be covered by the other 70 per cent, but why throw away 30? Well, I wouldn't say I am on the path to ruin given that I am already heavily invested in metals. Considering that nothing goes up in a straight line, that you should always try to manage risk and stay hedged, and that there are no certainties in life [besides d and t of course] I feel quietly confident. Actually, I do not see how my approach is really that different to the "100% buy and hold on for dear life" approach.... just a little more nuanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Well, I wouldn't say I am on the path to ruin given that I am already heavily invested in metals. Considering that nothing goes up in a straight line, that you should always try to manage risk and stay hedged, and that there are no certainties in life [besides d and t of course] I feel quietly confident. Actually, I do not see how my approach is really that different to the "100% buy and hold on for dear life" approach.... just a little more nuanced I think the problem comes when you talk about the fact that there maybe a pull back as a certainty. I think that some of your comments may have helped to make unprotected people wait for a buying opportunity, when they should just average in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 I think the problem comes when you talk about the fact that there maybe a pull back as a certainty. I think that some of your comments may have helped to make unprotected people wait for a buying opportunity, when they should just average in. I have always said there are no certainties and that you should have a hedge. I have also consistently said that a cash hedge only makes sense within the context of a large bullion position [actually it is implicit in the meaning of the words]. Not very complicated stuff. I think the problem lies more in the fact that some have a dogmatic view that can not see beyond "fiat is toast.... full stop". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 I agree completely. Many folks much wiser than us are issuing immediate and repeated warnings that we are in black swan territory *right now* - Faber, Sinclair, High, Stiglitz (Nobel prize winner - read his recent statements), Greenspan (read his CODED recent statements), the Mogambo!, the IMF EVEN (talking about the sustainability of the USD), CGNAO's latest (I entirely agree) about contango/USD - Jim Wille, Bill Murphy, Adrian Ash and PLENTY more. Ignore all these canaries at your financial peril! Ah yes, but the problem is there is another wise tribe giving an opposite prognosis. To make it even more confusing, each tribe calls the other foolish. Those that subscribe to a tribe become dogmatic... I'd rather profess skepticism towards the dogmas on offer and take a more pragmatic approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 I agree completely. Many folks much wiser than us are issuing immediate and repeated warnings that we are in black swan territory *right now* - Faber, Sinclair, High, Stiglitz (Nobel prize winner - read his recent statements), Greenspan (read his CODED recent statements), the Mogambo!, the IMF EVEN (talking about the sustainability of the USD), CGNAO's latest (I entirely agree) about contango/USD - Jim Wille, Bill Murphy, Adrian Ash and PLENTY more. Ignore all these canaries at your financial peril! At what stage will you reduce your PM holdings? And then what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 At what stage will you reduce your PM holdings? And then what? I will convert my gold and silver into a house and stocks, when I can see an end via the dow/gold ratio and house price/gold ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Some one I know well who works for a well known "surviving" investment bank says that there has been a big increase of purchases of gold for physical delivery. Im talking 100s of millions of $$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Some one I know well who works for a well known "surviving" investment bank says that there has been a big increase of purchases of gold for physical delivery. Im talking 100s of millions of $. Gonna happen sooner or later. Got Gold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 It is toast, full stop. All fiat currencies eventually implode, the system is reset, and the oligarchs start the game all over again. This is about to happen right now, for those with eyes to see. Can't argue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 You're not trading you are gambling. You are 'hoping' for a pull-back, that is not trading. You are gambling 30 per cent of your net worth that you get lucky. There is a huge chance that via currency debasement after a bank holiday your 30 per cent will become 3 per cent if a new debased currency is issued. It happened with the Euro. If the Amero is sprung on the USD, 100 old USDs will likely get you 10 Ameros. Had you had that 30 per cent in gold you would not have lost 27 per cent of your net worth in this scenario. There would have to be a new de facto gold standard and gold would be revalued against all currencies when the dust settles. Quite the opposite to gambling, my approach is conservative. I am hedging not gambling though I can see, by your hyper-inflationary logic, why you might think so. Personally, I do not think the dollar will hyper-inflate but devalue, by say 50%, and then only eventually. Some would say you are gambling by having 100% in silver, but I couldn't possibly comment on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Can't argue with that. best book you will ever buy RH : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 best book you will ever buy RH : Bought that one already! Mind you, I wouldn't mind one of those golden gilded books from medieval times. I bet that would have made for good bashing over the head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 I was waiting for you to say that! Bottom line is, volatility will get wild and crazy - if on margin you will sooner or later lose your shirt trying to second guess the market. If not on margin it will still happen, only more slowly. This is not my opinion, but the opinion of many metals experts that have been there/done that since the 60s on... For sure, keep away from margin/ leverage etc! Neither a borrower nor lender be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 You're not trading you are gambling. You are 'hoping' for a pull-back, that is not trading. You are gambling 30 per cent of your net worth that you get lucky. There is a huge chance that via currency debasement after a bank holiday your 30 per cent will become 3 per cent if a new debased currency is issued. It happened with the Euro. If the Amero is sprung on the USD, 100 old USDs will likely get you 10 Ameros. Had you had that 30 per cent in gold you would not have lost 27 per cent of your net worth in this scenario. There would have to be a new de facto gold standard and gold would be revalued against all currencies when the dust settles. Realist Bear's old dollar: http://i36.tinypic.com/123b0cx.jpg edit - can't get the image to post. I can - Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Adam Hewison's opinion http://broadcast.ino.com/education/goldcycle921/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Adam Hewison's opinion http://broadcast.ino.com/education/goldcycle921/ Worth a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted September 22, 2009 Report Share Posted September 22, 2009 Quite the opposite to gambling, my approach is conservative. I am hedging not gambling though I can see, by your hyper-inflationary logic, why you might think so. Personally, I do not think the dollar will hyper-inflate but devalue, by say 50%, and then only eventually. it's already done more than that just in this decade so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now